Crypto Exchange Volume Has Witnessed A Significant Drop

According to data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, the crypto trading volume of the centralized exchanges has been cooling down. The “trading volume” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of a given asset or group of assets becoming involved in trading activity on exchanges.

Below is the chart shared by CryptoQuant that shows the trend in this metric for the entire crypto sector over the last few years.

As is visible in the graph, the crypto trading volume shot up to a peak level during the last quarter of 2024, suggesting traders were at their most active on exchanges. In 2025, a second peak aligned with Bitcoin’s rally to its new all-time high (ATH).

Both of these highs coinciding with price surges isn’t surprising, as bullish price action tends to attract hype, which naturally results in higher trading activity. In contrast, bearish or sideways phases tend to scare investors away. From the chart, it’s visible that the latter effect has followed with the bearish reversal that crypto has seen since the last quarter of 2025.

Compared to the peak in October, crypto trading volume is today down 48%. Out of the $4.3 trillion volume that exchanges are observing right now, just $0.8 trillion is occurring on spot platforms. Thus, it would appear that perpetual futures markets are seeing most of the activity.

In terms of the individual exchanges, Binance continues to be the most dominant platform.

From the graph, it’s visible that Binance occupies the largest share of the exchange trading volume. Though, its dominance has actually shrunken over the years. At its peak back in the previous cycle, Binance controlled the majority of the market.

In some other news, the latest Bitcoin price surge has led to a break above a key Trader Realized Price level, as CryptoQuant has highlighted in an X post. The “Trader Realized Price” here refers to the average cost basis of the recent BTC buyers.

As displayed in the chart, the lower band of the Trader Realized Price was acting as an upper bound for BTC during the past few weeks, but the latest rally has taken the coin beyond the line. “If it holds, $79K is next—the key bear market ceiling and test for structural recovery,” noted the analytics firm.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $71,800, up more than 7.5% in the last seven days.

Atkins’ post on X (formerly Twitter) echoed recent comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and framed the legislation as necessary to replace “regulation by enforcement” with clear statutory rules that will allow federal agencies to implement consistent oversight of digital assets.

Atkins Urges Congress To Pass CLARITY Act

“At project Crypto is designed so once Congress acts, @SECGov & @CFTC are ready to implement the CLARITY Act,” Atkins wrote, adding that “It’s time for Congress to future‑proof against rogue regulators & advance comprehensive market structure legislation to President Trump’s desk.” 

His remarks came a day after Bessent published an op‑ed in the Wall Street Journal warning that the United States risks losing its leadership in financial innovation if lawmakers fail to pass the bill. 

Bessent urged durable legislation that would give entrepreneurs and developers the confidence to “reshore” digital‑asset activity to American markets, arguing that decisive legal standards have historically made the US the world’s financial center.

Atkins’ appeal references Project Crypto, the coordinated SEC–CFTC effort to create a unified approach to token classification and to streamline how on‑chain trading, custody, and settlement are treated under federal law. 

That initiative culminated in a joint interpretation in March clarifying how securities laws apply to certain crypto assets and transactions — a milestone that many described as the first meaningful step toward the kind of legal clarity the sector has sought for years.

The push for the CLARITY Act, however, is occurring amid stalled negotiations and a high‑stakes dispute between the banking and crypto industries over a provision of the already passed GENIUS Act, the country’s stablecoin legislation. 

Banks Vs. Crypto

That earlier legislation included a measure prohibiting permitted stablecoin issuers from paying interest or yield to customers simply for holding tokens. 

Banks argue the rule left a gap that third parties could exploit by offering rewards to stablecoin holders and have demanded that the market‑structure bill close that loophole. The crypto sector counters that the ability to provide rewards is crucial for stablecoins to compete effectively as payment instruments.

Despite multiple White House meetings intended to bridge the divide, no public compromise has yet been announced. Senators Angela Alsobrooks and Thom Tillis appeared to find bipartisan common ground late last month, but it remains unclear whether their proposal satisfies both the banking and crypto lobbies.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Short Trades Draw Fast Turnover

The jump followed Polymarket’s use of Chainlink data feeds in its short-duration crypto markets. The platform now relies on those feeds to support live pricing in markets that move every five or 15 minutes.

Chainlink said in a post on April 8 that Polymarket’s average daily volume had climbed to $153 million, or roughly 3x the level seen before the integration. The post also pointed to more than $4 billion in total volume across the short-term markets and more than $200 million in the first week of the 5-minute products.

Since adopting Chainlink to power 5 & 15 min crypto markets, @Polymarket has seen:

• $153M+ avg daily volume, up 3x • $4B+ volume across 5 & 15 min markets • $200M+ in week one of 5-min markets

The Chainlink effect is real. pic.twitter.com/YwDluD6vWS

— Chainlink (@chainlink) April 8, 2026

Chainlink Data Sits At The Center

The report ties that activity to the need for quick, reliable market data. It says Chainlink’s role is to supply secure outside information so outcomes can be settled against live prices instead of stale feeds. In that setup, speed matters. So does trust.

The coverage also says the faster markets have pulled in both retail and institutional traders. Larger participation has helped liquidity, and the short windows appear to have made the product feel more active for users watching small price moves in real time.

The five-minute market appears to have been the sharpest draw. Reports say it generated more than $200 million in its first week, a burst that helped push the wider short-duration segment past the $4 billion mark.

The piece frames Chainlink’s role as a technical one: keeping prices accurate and the market running smoothly as volume rises. It says the oracle network helps Polymarket handle fast trades without losing reliability, which is central to any market built around short deadlines.

Even so, the report does not separate out exactly how much of the rise came from Chainlink itself, new users, or broader interest in fast crypto betting. It presents the integration as the clear catalyst, but the numbers are still shown as a simple before-and-after change rather than a full breakdown.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The program, led through the Department’s Office of Cybersecurity and Critical Infrastructure Protection (OCCIP), is intended to give eligible US digital asset firms practical cybersecurity information. The goal is straightforward: help companies spot threats, strengthen prevention efforts, and respond effectively when incidents occur.

Treasury’s Crypto Cybersecurity Push 

In remarks accompanying the announcement, Luke Pettit, Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions, emphasized that digital asset firms now play an increasingly important role in the US financial system. 

By extending access to the same quality cybersecurity information used by traditional financial institutions, Pettit said Treasury is working to support a more secure and responsible digital asset ecosystem.

Treasury also framed the announcement as part of a broader push to ensure that cybersecurity is treated as a foundation for the next stage of digital finance, rather than an afterthought. 

Tyler Williams, Counselor to the Secretary for Digital Assets, said the initiative reflects the principles behind the country’s stablecoin bill, the GENIUS Act, by encouraging innovation supported by cybersecurity and operational resilience. 

Williams added that as digital assets become more integrated into the financial system, providing timely and actionable threat information becomes essential to protecting consumers and safeguarding US financial markets.

Additionally, Treasury officials said the initiative builds on recommendations from the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets report, Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology. 

Stablecoin Compliance Gets Clearer 

Officials involved in cybersecurity oversight also highlighted that the threat environment is changing quickly. Cory Wilson, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Cybersecurity, noted that cyber threats targeting crypto platforms are rising in both frequency and sophistication. 

According to Wilson, the new initiative expands access to actionable threat intelligence intended to help firms strengthen defenses, reduce risk exposure, and handle incidents more effectively when they happen.

The announcement arrives alongside other regulatory steps Treasury and related agencies have been pursuing. On Wednesday, the Department also released a joint proposed rule from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). 

That proposal is intended to provide a more detailed framework for the GENIUS Act, translating statutory requirements into clearer anti-money-laundering (AML) and sanctions-compliance obligations for permitted payment stablecoin issuers (PPSIs).

Treasury said the draft rule outlines how stablecoin issuers would be expected to detect, report, and block unlawful activity while still maintaining the tools required to comply with lawful orders. 

In combination with the new OCCIP cybersecurity initiative, the actions signal a broader direction: tighter operational standards, greater regulatory clarity, and continued cooperation with digital asset firms to help the crypto industry operate with stronger safeguards.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bithumb Launches Legal Action

On Thursday, local news media outlet Chosun Biz reported that the South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb had begun legal proceedings to recover part of the Bitcoin that had not been returned after a recent error.

On February 6, Bithumb accidentally distributed 620,000 Bitcoin, worth over $40 billion, to 249 users participating in the crypto exchange’s “random box” promotional event due to a “fat-finger” error.

The exchange quickly canceled the payments and recovered most of the assets. However, some customers immediately sold or exchanged the BTC for cash or other cryptocurrencies, leaving approximately 0.3% of the Bitcoin unrecovered.

According to the report, Bithumb filed for a provisional seizure this week to reclaim 7 Bitcoin it had failed to recover after the erroneous payout incident. This is a legal measure to temporarily freeze a debtor’s assets, preventing their concealment or disposal before a lawsuit to recover the money is filed.

Legal experts believe that customers who did not return the mistakenly paid Bitcoin would likely lose the lawsuit. Head of the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) and a former attorney, Lee Chan-jin, has said that those customers are “clearly subject to the return of unjust enrichment. Those who sold and converted them into money (cash out) face disaster (as they could be drawn into lawsuits).”

An industry source told Chosun Biz that some of these clients argued they should not be responsible for the exchange’s mistake, but under South Korean law, mistakenly received assets are usually classified as unjust enrichment and must be returned in kind.

The report noted that if BTC’s price falls by the time of return, the customer could benefit, but if the price surges, the customer could face losses if the court rules in the exchange’s favor.

‘Ghost Bitcoin’ Error Reshapes Industry Practices

Although 99.7% of the BTC were recovered, the incident raised serious concerns about the crypto exchange’s internal controls. As reported by Bitcoinist, Bithumb held 175 BTC in its own books and less than 50,000 BTC between its own assets and customer-held assets at the time of the incident.

This meant that Bithumb’s system failed to block the irregular transaction, distributing assets that did not actually exist and distorting market prices. As a result, the FSS, alongside the Korean Financial Intelligence Unit (KoFIU) and the Digital Asset eXchange Alliance (DAXA), formed an emergency task force to organize follow-up measures and review industry-wide practices, including domestic exchanges’ virtual asset reserves, management practices, operational conditions, and internal control systems.

In March, the KoFIU preliminarily notified Bithumb of a six-month partial suspension of its business for alleged violations of Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know-Your-Customer (KYC) regulations.

Earlier this week, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) found that domestic crypto exchanges’ trade-halting systems, also known as kill switches, are unreliable when a massive asset mismatch occurs.

Therefore, the regulator ordered all domestic crypto exchanges to switch from the 24‑hour reconciliation cycles most exchanges currently have to a 5‑minute asset‑matching regime by the end of May. In addition, they asked all platforms to disclose their asset-matching balance daily.

Back Says ‘We Are All Satoshi’ Was About A Film

Back’s old post, which read “We Are All Satoshi,” was flagged by analysts as a possible hidden admission after the New York Times published its investigation identifying him as Bitcoin’s anonymous creator.

Back rejected that reading. He said the phrase came directly from a short film called *Block 170, The First Transaction*, which features the words carved into stone as part of its artistic concept. His tweet, he said, was simply a reference to the film.

The clarification came in response to a sweeping NYT investigation published April 8, 2026. The newspaper’s team, led by John Carreyrou — the journalist who exposed the Theranos fraud — spent more than a year combing through over 134,000 posts by 620 candidates on cryptography mailing lists dating back to 1992.

Bitcoin’s founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, has remained hidden for 17 years. A trail of clues — and a year of digging by our reporter, John Carreyrou — led us to a 55-year-old computer scientist in El Salvador named Adam Back. https://t.co/s6Jy00IDdk

— The New York Times (@nytimes) April 8, 2026

Using linguistic analysis, researchers identified Back as the closest match to the writing style of Satoshi Nakamoto, the person or group behind Bitcoin’s creation in 2008.

A Gap In The Data The Times Found Hard To Ignore

The numbers were specific. Researchers catalogued 325 hyphenation quirks found in Satoshi’s writing. Back matched 67 of them. The second closest candidate matched only 38.

Investigators also noted shared writing habits — British spellings, consistent hyphenation patterns, double spacing between sentences, and alternating use of “e-mail” and “email.”

Then there was the timeline. Back had been an active, visible presence in digital cash discussions for well over a decade. When Satoshi publicly announced Bitcoin in late 2008, Back’s participation in those forums went quiet. Reports say investigators viewed the timing as significant.

Back pushed back on all of it. He acknowledged his long history on the mailing lists but argued that heavy participation naturally produced more data points for any analyst to find patterns in.

Many researchers were exploring digital cash concepts at the same time, he said, so overlapping technical ideas are not evidence of a shared identity. He also stated clearly that he does not know who Satoshi is.

One part of Back’s response went beyond self-defense. He argued that keeping Satoshi’s identity unknown actually benefits Bitcoin as a system.

According to Back, a founderless currency is more likely to be treated as a standalone asset class rather than the project of a single person. The mystery, in his view, is a feature rather than a problem.

Featured image from Blockstream, chart from TradingView

The report identifies a confluence of two on-chain indicators that together are producing what it describes as one of the most compelling risk-reward setups in recent cycle history. The first and most historically significant is the Short-Term Sharpe Ratio, which has plunged deep into negative territory and is now touching the -40 threshold.

That level is not arbitrary. It is the precise reading that preceded every major accumulation window of the past ten years — 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023. Four instances. Four subsequent substantial re-ratings of the asset. Zero exceptions.

The current moment marks the fifth time Bitcoin has entered that territory.

To be precise about what that means: the Sharpe Ratio measures risk-adjusted returns. When it reaches -40, investors are bearing extreme risk for deeply negative returns — the exact condition that historically exhausts sellers and precedes the kind of structural reset that produces the next major move higher.

Bitcoin above $71,000 is navigating volatility. The on-chain data suggests it may be navigating something else entirely.

The Flush Has Happened, But The Opportunity Has Not Opened Yet

The report’s second indicator adds the dimension that transforms a data point into a framework. Durable Bitcoin bottoms, the analysis establishes, are not events — they are processes. And that process has a consistent, observable sequence that the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta maps in real time.

The sequence begins with maximum sell pressure: the orange and red spikes below -0.05 that mark the moment when forced sellers and panic capitulators exhaust themselves simultaneously. That phase has occurred. The flush is confirmed. What follows is a gradual normalization — supply thinning, selling pressure receding, the delta crawling back toward neutral. That transition is underway. The delta is moving in the right direction.

What has not yet arrived is the asymmetric signal — the moment the delta reclaims blue Buy Pressure territory, confirming that demand is genuinely re-emerging rather than simply stabilizing in the absence of selling. That reclaim is the threshold the report identifies as historically offering the highest risk-reward entry. Every prior durable bottom produced it. The current chart has not yet.

The gap between where the delta sits now and where it needs to go is not a warning. It is a waiting period — and the report is precise about what lives inside it. Historically, the space between capitulation confirmed and demand reignited is where the most asymmetric capital deployment has occurred. Not after the blue reclaim. Before it.

The risks are real and named. Macro headwinds, liquidity constraints, and sentiment fragility could extend the transition. But the data describes a market that is closer to the beginning of an opportunity than the end of one — and that distinction, for cycle-aware investors, is the only number that matters right now.

Bitcoin Holds Range as Downtrend Momentum Fades

Bitcoin is stabilizing above $70,000 after a sharp breakdown that defined the February move lower. The chart shows a clear shift from trend to range: a prolonged decline from late 2025 gave way to a high-volume capitulation event, followed by consolidation between roughly $66,000 and $72,000. This range now defines the short-term structure, with $70,000 acting as a pivot level.

Despite the stabilization, the broader trend remains unresolved. Bitcoin continues to trade below its 50-day (blue), 100-day (green), and 200-day (red) moving averages, all trending downward. This alignment signals that bearish momentum has not fully reversed. Recent attempts to push higher have stalled near the 50-day average, indicating overhead supply remains active.

Volume provides additional context. The spike during the February sell-off reflects forced liquidations, often associated with local bottoms. Since then, volume has normalized, suggesting that the market is no longer under stress but has not yet transitioned into strong accumulation.

Structurally, this is a compression phase following a deleveraging event. A break above $72,000–$75,000 is required to shift momentum and confirm recovery. Until then, Bitcoin remains range-bound, with price action driven more by positioning than sustained directional demand.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

According to the pundit, $300,000 is inevitable for Bitcoin. The moment Bitcoin smashes its current price peak, a sequence begins that ends with billions of dollars flooding into mid- and low-cap altcoins, leading to the creation of a new class of millionaires.

The Sequence: Bitcoin To New Price Highs First

According to a crypto pundit on the social media platform X, the next six to ten months will become one of the most significant wealth-creation windows in crypto history. All that just needs to happen is for the Bitcoin price to break its all-time high. Everything else will follow automatically.

The total cryptocurrency market cap, which is currently sitting around $2.5 trillion, is projected in this scenario to undergo a three-to-four-fold expansion from current levels. This scenario will see the entire crypto market cap reaching anywhere between $8 trillion and $10 trillion.

The chart accompanying the analysis highlights a direct comparison between Bitcoin’s 2012 cycle and the current structure heading into the rest of 2026. Just like the 2012 cycle, the current price action shows a sharp rally into an early peak in October 2025, followed by a corrective phase, characterized by a rebound in January that looks like a bear trap. That trap shook out weaker hands before a deeper reset to form the true bottom.

However, the most interesting part is what came next during the 2012 cycle. Back then, once Bitcoin reclaimed momentum and pushed beyond its previous high, the move that followed delivered an exponential rally of over 12,000%.

Liquidity Rotation: How Altcoins Enter The Picture

The outlook is that Bitcoin will soon embark on a rally that sees it breaking to new price territories if it continues to follow the way it played out in 2012. A similar rally that factors in the state of the crypto market today will still see the Bitcoin price reaching well over $250,000 and maybe even as high as $300,000.

The pundit lays out a clear chain of events. Bitcoin shatters its all-time high, and Ethereum follows to new highs, then billions of dollars rotate into mid- and low-cap altcoins, with memecoins catching fire in the final stage. This sequencing follows how previous altseasons have unfolded. The 2017 and 2021 bull markets both followed this structure, and 2026 might be no different.

Crypto analyst Crypto Patel also pointed to the OTHERS/BTC ratio returning to an important support level that previously preceded major altcoin rallies. Patel noted that similar rebounds in 2017 and 2021 led to gains of 423% and 503% respectively, and projected a potential 702% upside for the 2026 cycle.

Binance And OKX Founders Clash Again

The renewed conflict began after Binance’s founder published his autobiography, Freedom of Money. In response, Xu posted a series of sharp messages on social media platform X, accusing Zhao of spreading “purely false information” and challenging his personal and professional integrity. 

Xu’s comments also disputed claims Zhao included in the book—particularly a story involving Huobi founder Li Lin. Zhao’s autobiography says that Li Lin told him in 2025 that Li had been arrested because of a whistleblower report allegedly tied to Xu. 

Xu quickly pushed back, denying that any such report was made and insisting he never contacted authorities regarding Li Lin. He argued that while people file complaints in the crypto industry, those complaints don’t typically result in arrests. 

The clash also revisited an earlier dispute dating back to 2014 and 2015, when Zhao was a senior executive at OKCoin, the company that would later become OKX. At the center of that older disagreement was a commercial arrangement involving early Bitcoin investor Roger Ver. 

CZ Offers $1 Billion Bet

Xu says OKCoin accused Zhao of fabricating contract versions in a way that introduced a six-month termination clause. According to Xu’s posts, the disagreement originally hinged on the accuracy and authenticity of the contract terms—and the question of whether evidence had been altered.

Zhao has repeatedly denied those allegations, and in his autobiography, he suggested that any evidence used against him could have been manipulated. Xu, however, claims to have new material supporting his position. 

He reposted what he described as a notarized video, saying it proves contract forgery. Xu also referenced the passage of time, stating that contract falsification evidence had already been made public on the internet 12 years earlier. In his comments, Xu called Zhao “a habitual liar” who “never changes their nature.”

But while the OKX founder has been arguing the case in detail online, CZ responded in a separate social media post dismissing the attacks as false claims—at least initially. 

He wrote that he typically ignores such accusations, but added, “You can apologize now.” Binance’s former CEO then made a personal and legal offer, saying that he would not post any legal documents online out of respect for his ex-wife and privacy.

CZ’s post also introduced the wager that has caught attention across crypto circles. He said he would be “happy to bet $1 billion USD (or any number you choose)” that he is officially divorced—“way before today.” 

The Binance founder suggested that if Xu agrees, lawyers could validate the divorce agreement and called the process “dead simple.” CZ said the bet offer would remain valid permanently, “whenever you feel ready,” but added that if Xu does not accept within 24 hours, it would indicate who has misrepresented the public.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The headline finding is stark: total centralized exchange trading volume fell approximately 48% from the October 2025 peak to $4.3 trillion in March 2026 — the lowest reading since October 2024. That is not a seasonal slowdown. It is a near-halving of market participation in five months, confirming that the cycle’s peak activity has passed and the participants who drove it have largely stepped back.

What remains is structurally revealing. Of the $4.3 trillion in March volume, perpetual futures accounted for $3.5 trillion — more than four times the $0.8 trillion recorded in spot markets. The crypto market is not being driven by holders buying and selling the underlying asset. It is being driven by leveraged traders making synthetic directional bets on where the price goes next.

That ratio — four dollars of derivatives activity for every one dollar of real spot demand — is not a sign of a healthy, conviction-driven market. It is the fingerprint of a market in transition, waiting for the underlying demand that turns leverage into trend.

The Crypto Market Shrank

The report’s competitive analysis delivers the most counterintuitive finding in the Q1 data. While total exchange volume contracted nearly 50% from the cycle peak, Binance maintained $248 billion in spot trading in March alone — translating to approximately 32% market share year-to-date in 2026, representing roughly $1 trillion in cumulative volume. Its nearest competitors are not close. MEXC holds 9%. Bybit holds 7%. Binance’s share is more than three times larger than either.

The decline from 37% in October 2025 to 32% today reflects genuine competitive pressure from secondary exchanges gaining traction during the contraction. MEXC, Bybit, Gate, and Crypto.com have all grown their spot volumes relative to the market. None have approached Binance’s scale. Increased competition without meaningful consolidation of leadership is the precise description of the current competitive landscape.

The derivatives picture reinforces the structural conclusion. Binance leads perpetual futures with $1.4 trillion in monthly volume and approximately 40% market share — more than double OKX at 19% and more than triple Bybit at 13%. Across $4.5 trillion in cumulative perp volume in 2026, derivatives have become the decisive growth engine for the entire exchange industry.

What the Q1 data ultimately describes is a market in which total participation has contracted sharply while the concentration of that participation has deepened. When volume returns — and the historical pattern suggests it will — it will return to the venues that held their ground during the contraction. The gap between Binance and everyone else means that dynamic disproportionately favors one player.

Total Market Cap Enters Transitional Range After Breakdown

The total crypto market cap is no longer trending — it is rotating. After peaking near the $3.8T–$4.0T region in late 2025, the market lost structure and broke below its short-term trend, triggering a sharp decline toward the $2.1T–$2.2T zone. That move marked a decisive shift from expansion to distribution.

Since then, price has stabilized around $2.3T–$2.4T, forming a horizontal range rather than a directional trend. This level now acts as a pivot. However, the broader technical context remains fragile. The market is trading below the 50-week (blue) and 100-week (green) moving averages, both of which are flattening or turning downward. This reflects weakening momentum and a loss of sustained inflows.

The 200-week moving average (red), currently near $2.0T, is rising and has held as structural support during the recent drawdown. That level defines the lower bound of the current cycle unless a deeper macro shift occurs.

Volume behavior reinforces the transition narrative. Activity expanded into the late-2025 highs but has since declined alongside price, indicating reduced participation rather than aggressive accumulation.

Structurally, this is a re-accumulation or redistribution range. A reclaim of $2.8T–$3.0T is required to restore bullish continuation. Until then, the market remains in a neutral-to-bearish consolidation phase.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

A Decade Of Content, Gone Overnight

Bitcoin.com confirmed that YouTube removed its channel without prior warning, citing “harmful and dangerous” content. The channel had built an audience of more than 100,000 subscribers over 10 years, posting wallet tutorials and cryptocurrency news.

Appeals have been rejected. Broken video embeds have hurt the site’s traffic. According to Bitcoin.com, nothing in its library crossed any line — and while its educational videos were pulled, crypto scam advertisements continued running on the platform untouched.

YouTube deleted our channel for being “harmful and dangerous.” Our content since 2015: #Bitcoin education. Wallet tutorials. Objective news. YouTube’s content: crypto scam ads running 24/7 with zero moderation. Appeal rejected. No strikes. No explanation. Just an algorithm that… pic.twitter.com/YvEsk8vc7J

— Bitcoin.com (@BitcoinCom) April 8, 2026

YouTube has not publicly commented on the removal.

A Pattern That Goes Back Years

This is not an isolated case. BTCsessions, another crypto-focused channel, was removed three separate times between 2019 and 2025. Its most recent ban — issued for what YouTube described as “severe and repeated violations” — was reversed only after a large public backlash.

In September 2025, the Luke Mikic channel was taken down, then restored the same day following a fast appeal.

Earlier in 2026, YouTube swept out a broader group of channels. Reports indicate that the affected accounts lost a combined 35 million subscribers, with demonetization cutting off millions of dollars in revenue.

Bitcoin Magazine was banned in April 2026 — its second removal in four years — this time for content YouTube labeled “low-quality and repetitive.”

Through it all, YouTube CEO Neal Mohan has continued to describe the platform as creator-first. Crypto viewership on the platform dropped to a five-year low in 2026.

Banning channels should always be a last resort, not automated in any way.

It’s people’s lives. They put a lot of work into it, years, and then you just ban it automatically. It’s not respectful.

— James CryptoGuru (@Jamyies) April 8, 2026

Reaction on X has been sharp. Creators and viewers alike say the bans are unjustified and that automation has made the process worse — not better. “It’s people’s lives,” one user wrote. “They put a lot of work into it, years, and then you just ban it automatically.”

Voices in the community are pointing creators toward other platforms: Odysee, Rumble, Substack, Spotify, and email lists. Bitchat — still in early development — has drawn particular interest for its design, which operates independently of centralized platforms and does not rely on traditional internet infrastructure.

Nostr and Bluesky, both backed by Dorsey, are being mentioned alongside it as longer-term alternatives for creators who no longer want their work dependent on a single platform’s moderation decisions.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Analyst Explains Market Using Ethereum Cycle Theory

On April 7, Severino shared his Ethereum price analysis on X, comparing the current market cycle with past trends. The analyst noted that crypto cycles can run their full course without reaching a new all-time high. Additionally, he said that some cycles may only experience bear market rallies, in which prices consistently form higher lows and lower highs over time. 

According to Severino, the biggest challenge most market participants face today is the inability to accept that a cycle may behave differently from historical trends. He added that, currently, many investors believe the Ethereum cycle has not happened, even though it behaved unexpectedly. 

Explaining this deviation through a cycle theory, Severino noted that within a full market cycle, there are several smaller degree cycles that make each timeline unique. He referred to these smaller cycles as “intracycle harmonics.” The analyst emphasized that the behavior of these harmonics can change depending on their position within the larger degree cycle. He further added that if an intracycle harmonic exceeds the amplitude of the larger-degree cycle, it could be a warning sign that ETH is in a period dominated by bear-market rallies. 

Essentially, Severino suggests that Ethereum’s recent price gains may be temporary or misleading. Even when it seems to be rallying, the broader market structure implies that these moves are likely part of a prolonged weak cycle within a bear market. This means that investors should be cautious about expecting a new all-time high anytime soon.   

Ethereum Bottom Not Reached Yet

In his analysis, Severino noted that despite ongoing bearish headwinds and weak action, the Ethereum price has not reached a market bottom yet. In his accompanying chart, he highlighted a pink line above the $2,000 level where ETH is currently holding firmly. 

According to the analyst, every time Ethereum has broken this key support line, the cryptocurrency has declined to its market bottom. With ETH’s price now hovering slightly above key support, it suggests that the market could be approaching a floor soon. 

Before reaching that point, Ethereum will likely experience another downturn. In his chart, Severino identifies $800 and a level around $440 as ETH’s next potential breakdown target or ultimate price bottoms if it falls below the critical line.

Analyst Reveals Key Bitcoin Investment Strategy

In an X post, Mags, a well-known crypto analyst, announced that January 13, 2027, could be the next major buying opportunity for Bitcoin investors. He outlined a key investment strategy that could help BTC holders and traders potentially maximize their profits even during a bear market. 

Mags called this plan “the 500-day Bitcoin strategy.” He noted that despite the ongoing market downturn and Bitcoin’s persistent fluctuation, the strategy is still working fully and could be an effective approach for investors who want to ignore the noise and focus on growing their portfolio.

The analyst explained how this unique strategy works. First, investors must buy Bitcoin exactly 500 days before the cryptocurrency’s halving event. After making the purchase, they are expected to hold their position and do nothing. This means that regardless of how the market moves, whether prices rise or fall, investors who bought 500 days before the halving should avoid selling to lock in profit or to limit losses. 

After another 500 days have passed, Mags noted that investors can then sell their BTC, suggesting that this timing may be the best opportunity to realize gains. He concluded by encouraging investors to repeat the same process in future cycles. 

Notably, Mags revealed that the last major sell signal for Bitcoin was triggered on August 24, 2025, when the cryptocurrency was trading around $109,000. This signal appeared nearly two months before Bitcoin reached its current top above $126,000 in October last year. Although that level was not Bitcoin’s ultimate peak, it still represented a major exit zone for investors who had entered 500 days before the 2024 halving, enabling them to secure massive gains. The analyst further noted that since reaching that level, BTC’s value has declined by more than 45%. 

Historical Context Behind The 500 Day BTC Strategy

In his post, Mags shared a detailed chart showing Bitcoin’s price movements leading up to its halving event and over the next 500 days. In the 2016 to 2019 cycle, the analyst noted that investors who applied this 500-day Bitcoin strategy had entered the market at major lows and sold near the peak, resulting in substantial gains.

A similar pattern was observed during the 2019 to 2022 cycle, where investors who bought 500 days before the halving entered the market at around $3,000 to $5,000 and later sold near the top at above $69,000, representing gains of 1,200% to 2,200%. With the current cycle’s 500-day strategy concluded, Mags has pointed to 13 January 2027 as the next opportunity, with the halving event expected around 27 May 2028. 

Network Usage On Cardano Makes History

With a growing, volatile cryptocurrency landscape, the price of Cardano has steadily faced bearish pressure and persistent pullback. However, this has not been the case for the Cardano network, as momentum has been observed growing across the blockchain and its ecosystem.

After a steady growth, the network is experiencing notable interest, reaching yet another major milestone in its activity. As more players connect through transactions, decentralized apps, and on-chain services, the most recent milestone is indicative of consistent growth in the network’s user base.

In this waning period, transactions conducted on the network are spiking hard. Data from Cexplorer, the biggest and most featured OG blockchain explorer, shows that Cardano has just crossed 120,000,000 on the mainnet, cementing its position as a top contender in the crypto and blockchain sector.

Currently, transaction counts on the network stand at 120,002,067, as seen in the chart shared by the platform. Such a huge amount of transactions demonstrates heightened adoption and strengthens Cardano’s standing in the larger blockchain environment. Should the user engagement continue expanding, it could spur a broader market performance, allowing ADA’s price to bounce back to key resistance levels.

Large ADA  Investors Are Stepping Back In At A Fast Rate

Prior to the report regarding transaction growth, there was news about wallet addresses on the network spiking significantly to levels not seen in several months. These are not just mere ADA holders but wallet addresses holding a substantial amount of ADA, who are considered large investors or whales.

In the report shared on X by Santiment, a leading on-chain data analytics platform, it was highlighted that the number of wallet addresses holding at least 10 million ADA has skyrocketed. The rise in large-holder addresses indicates that wealthy investors are gradually increasing their holdings, which may indicate a resurgence of faith in the network’s long-term prospects.

Currently, these investors are not positioned at a 4-high 424, which represents a +5.2% rise in 9 weeks. Despite its downside trend, Cardano has not yet decoupled from other leading altcoins in 2026. ADA’s market value experienced a +11% since it reached its bottom back on February 5th, 2026. 

Large investors are often seen as the main drivers for massive price movements, which implies that their activity could shape the impending move for ADA in the short and long term. In a bullish outlook, the growth might mark the start of a stronger phase for the altcoin.

Most Binance Whales Are Betting On A Shiba Inu Price Rally

Binance data show that top traders on the exchange with the largest margin balances are going long on the meme coin, with 63% betting on a Shiba Inu price rally. Meanwhile, only 37% of them are short on SHIB, betting on a move to the downside. As a result, the long/short ratio is at 1.69, signaling how bullish these top traders are on the foremost meme coin. 

Furthermore, the top Binance traders by position are also mainly long SHIB and betting on a Shiba Inu price rally. Almost 71% of these traders are long SHIB, while 29% are short, with a long/short ratio of 2.39. It is worth noting that the long/short ratio of the top traders by accounts and positions has climbed since the U.S. and Iran announced the two-week ceasefire. 

At the same time, most Binance traders are bullish on the Shiba Inu price, with 60% of accounts long the meme coin and 40% short. The long/short ratio is at 1.5, rising as SHIB rebounded yesterday following the announcement of the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire. While most traders are bullish on SHIB, activity in the derivatives market is on the decline. 

CoinGlass data shows that Shiba Inu’s trading volume has crashed by over 22% to $138 million, while the open interest is down over 4% to $54 million. This signals that most traders are still on the sidelines even as the market recovers. 

SHIB Primed For The Next Expansion

In an X post, crypto analyst Crypto Lens stated that the Shiba Inu is primed for the next expansion. He noted that SHIB is holding a 5-year demand zone strongly and that it has a history of long accumulation followed by explosive moves, including rallies of over 1,000%. Based on this, the analyst declared that the structure appears primed for the next expansion after another 550 days of tight consolidation. 

Crypto analyst Vuori also predicted that the Shiba Inu price could soon see a parabolic rally. The analyst noted that SHIB is still in the accumulation phase, which could last till the fourth quarter or first quarter of 2027, but that the downside risk is minimal at this point. He added that the projected gains are “monumental.”

At the time of writing, the Shiba Inu price is trading at around $0.000005883, down over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Another Battle Over Crypto Prediction Markets

In a filing from yesterday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Justice Department (DOJ) commended a federal court to stop Arizona from using its gambling laws against crypto prediction‑market platform Kalshi.

The agencies are asking for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to halt Arizona’s criminal case and gambling‑law enforcement.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Creator Exposed? New Investigation Points At The Real Identity Of Satoshi Nakamoto

CFTC argues that these contracts tied to sports, elections and other real‑world events qualify as swaps (financial derivatives) under U.S. law, rather than falling under state gambling statutes. The federal regulators based their arguments on the fact that since the contracts are settled on future events with economic impact, they are governed by the Commodity Exchange Act and fall under federal law rather than state authority.

Such interpretation curbs how far individual states can go in blocking or constraining these platforms, which regulators say would otherwise splinter the market into a patchwork of state‑by‑state rules.

Arizona charged Kalshi with illegal gambling over sports and election markets. Arizona, along with an expanding list of other states, argue that contracts tied to sports results operate like ordinary bets and must be treated as gambling, subject to licensing rules, age limits, and consumer safeguards.

According to the court filing, Arizona first sent a cease‑and‑desist order to KalshiEx LLC and Kalshi Trading LLC in May 2025, alleging they were taking unlawful bets in breach of state law. The state then brought criminal charges against both entities for “betting and wagering” under several Arizona statutes, with an arraignment set for April 13.

On Monday, a Third Circuit (one of the 13 U.S. federal courts of appeals) ruling stated that sports event contracts on designated contract markets (DCMs) are “swaps” preempting state gambling laws. However, one judge disagreed, blasting Kalshi’s stance as a “performative sleight” designed to hide the fact that its offerings are, in substance, sports betting.

This move follows a broader CFTC and DOJ litigation against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois over prediction‑market jurisdiction. Bitcoinist reported on it last week. This past month, a bipartisan Senate bill targeting sports‑style bets on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi was introduced by Senators Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT).

Also on March, democratic representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts (MA-06) formally banned all his staff from participating in prediction markets. That same day, Congressman Adrian Smith (R-NE-03) and Congresswoman Nikki Budzinski (D-IL-13) from Nebraska introduced the PREDICT Act, banning members of Congress from trading on political and policy outcome markets.

Related Reading: SEC Admits Flaws In Crypto Enforment, What Went Wrong?

Kalshi’s main rival, Polymarket, is also under mounting legal fire, with a New York class action filed in February alleging it runs an unlicensed sports‑betting operation. Regulators in Nevada have launched a civil case against its parent company, and authorities in Ohio, Utah, and Iowa have likewise begun probing the platform.

Not too long ago, Argentinian authorities ordered a full national ban of Polymarket after it “predicted” inflation data back in February. On top of that, the platform faced terrible backlash recently after bettors sent death threats to Times of Israel military reporter Emanuel Fabian, following his report of an Iranian ballistic missile on March 10.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket updated their rules at the end of March to preemptively block politicians, candidates and sports insiders from trading on related markets

If the federal preemption is upheld, it will de‑risks U.S. prediction venues, potentially boosting liquidity and making them more attractive as macro and sports‑beta tools for crypto‑savvy traders. However, if states carve out sports and politics as gambling, markets may fragment offshore or into on‑chain, harder‑to‑police venues, raising operational and legal risk premia for anyone treating these contracts as serious hedging instruments.

Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSD chart from Tradingview.

Whales Bet Against Bitcoin And Ethereum

Bullish momentum appears to have returned for Bitcoin and Ethereum as both assets are now trading above key resistance levels that previously triggered downside action. Even during the period, key traders’ sentiment remained unchanged, reflecting a negative outlook for these top assets.

An X post from Alphractal, an advanced investment and on-chain data analytics platform, is showing a notable shift in sentiment among large investors or whales. The signal is emerging from the Whale Vs Retail Delta metric.

Specifically, whales in both Bitcoin and Ethereum are increasingly favoring or opening short positions over long positions. This shift implies that some of the market’s most powerful players are preparing for a possible decline, even though price action may seem reasonably constant on the surface. 

When investors notably shift towards bearish bets, it usually implies that caution is building or investors are expecting the broader correction to extend. As whales continue to bet against the two leading assets, this pattern is likely to result in persistent selling pressure throughout the market.

According to the platform, whales are more interested in shorts than longs, whereas retail traders are doing the opposite and increasing their exposure. Retailers opening longs during a volatile period reflects growing optimism and confidence that the current phase offers buying opportunities.

This striking divergence between whales and retail holders’ sentiment and activity could create significant tension in the market. In the meantime, this pattern is likely to serve as a crucial part in shaping the next move for BTC and ETH.

A Compression Phase, Not A Reset

After examining the Bitcoin On-Chain Price Dynamics, Teddy highlighted that the current price action is more of a compression than a reset. While BTC has fallen roughly 50% from the 2025 high, the on-chain structure still does not look like a full reset.

During the time of the post, BTC’s price was located near $68,600. Meanwhile, Realized Price remained close to $54,100, Long-Term Holder Realized Price stayed near $42,200, and Investor Price was close to $49,500. At this point, this positioning is keeping the broader cost-basis structure intact. 

The market has cooled, but the price has not yet broken into the deeper on-chain support band, with higher pressure on the structure. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the STH Realized Price, which is close to $79,200, and the True Market Mean Price, which is close to $78,300.

Teddy noted that recent buyers remain under pressure as the rice has not yet reclaimed the zone where the structure begins to appear healthier. With sideways price action, profitability has reduced, and short-term holders are still underwater. However, the broader realized base has not yet been lost.

The DPRK Crypto-Infiltration Saga, Part III (From This Week Only)

The North Korean secret crypto-agents saga continues. The hidden network of North Korea–aligned crypto hackers have been slowly exposed on the social network X these past days, following the attribution of the April 1st $285 million attack on Drift Protocol to UNC4736, a North Korea–aligned, state‑sponsored hacking group.

On Sunday, security researcher Taylor Monahan claimed that North Korean IT workers have quietly worked inside more than 40 DeFi projects over roughly seven years. Also on Sunday and Monday, multiple crypto industry actors shared videos and stories of North Korean IT workers failing the “Kim Jong-Un Test”.

Now, it was ZachXBT turn to publish his findings, which he did yesterday on a thread on the social network X. The exfiltrated data, that hadn’t been publicly released before, was shared with him by an anonymous source.

The extraction of the data was possible because one of this IT workers workers from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) had his device infected with an infostealer (malware designed specifically to steal sensitive information). The malware exposed IPMsg chat logs, fabricated identities, and detailed browser activity.

2/ A DPRK IT worker had their device compromised via infostealer. Extracted data included IPMsg chat logs, fake identities, and browser history.

Digging through the IPMsg logs revealed this site being discussed: luckyguys[.]site

An internal payment remittance platform,… pic.twitter.com/0rA1CxSmZx

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) April 8, 2026

The thread walks through how DPRK IT agents, often posing as freelancers abroad, are allegedly getting paid in crypto and funneled back into regime‑linked channels.

The website that surfaced from the data extraction was called luckyguys.site. According to the crypto detective, it appeared to function as an internal payment remittance hub: a Discord‑like messaging platform where DPRK IT operatives reported and reconciled their crypto payments with superiors.

Believe it or not, the site’s default login password was set to “123456”. At the moment of the data extraction, ten accounts were still using it unchanged.

The account roster showed roles, Korean names, locations, and internal group codes that align with known North Korean IT worker structures. ZachXBT highlighted that three of the companies referenced in the data, Sobaeksu, Saenal, and Songkwang, are already subject to OFAC sanctions.

The crypto investigator shared a video showing direct messages from one WebMsg account, “Rascal”, with PC‑1234 (the server admin account) that spell out payment transfers and the use of fake identities from December 2025 to April 2026. Every payment in these chats is routed and finalized via PC‑1234. The logs also reference Hong Kong addresses for billing and delivery of goods, although whether those details are genuine still needs to be confirmed.

4/ Here is one of the WebMsg users ‘Rascal’ and their DMs with PC-1234 detailing payment transfers and the use of fraudulent identities from December 2025 through April 2026.

All payments are processed and confirmed through the server admin account: PC-1234.

Addresses in Hong… pic.twitter.com/akyjmTbL5J

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) April 8, 2026

The findings only grow more interesting as the thread advances. Since late November 2025, more than $3.5 million has flowed into the payment wallets. The same remittance pattern shows up again and again: users either send crypto in directly from an exchange or service, or off‑ramp into fiat via Chinese bank accounts using platforms such as Payoneer.

After that, PC‑1234 acknowledges the incoming funds and hands over login credentials, which can be for different crypto exchanges or fintech payment apps, depending on the specific user.

5/ Since late November 2025 $3.5M+ was received across the payment wallet addresses.

The remittance pattern was consistent across users:

Users transfer crypto originating from an exchange or service, or convert to fiat via Chinese bank accounts through platforms like Payoneer.… pic.twitter.com/IhbqW3eKKI

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) April 8, 2026

The crypto detective reconstructed the network’s entire organizational hierarchy using the full dataset and made an interactive version of this org chart.

When the investigator followed the internal payment wallets on‑chain, he found connections to several already‑attributed DPRK IT worker clusters. The Tron‑based wallet was frozen by Tether in December 2025.

Other interesting findings show that the compromised device, which belonged to someone called “Jerry”, still had Astrill VPN in use, along with multiple fabricated identities being used to apply for jobs. Inside an internal Slack workspace, a user named “Nami” shared a blog post about a deepfake job applicant linked to DPRK IT workers. One colleague asked if the story was about them, while another reminded the group they weren’t allowed to post external links.

8/ Jerry’s compromised device shows usage of Astrill VPN and various fake personas applying for jobs.

An internal Slack showed ‘Nami’ sharing a blog post about a DPRK IT worker deepfake job applicant. A second user asked if it was them, while a third noted they aren’t allowed to… pic.twitter.com/7ZdGbX91WT

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) April 8, 2026

Jerry exchanged messages with another North Korean IT worker about plans to steal from a project, using a Nigerian proxy to target Arcano, a GalaChain game. If that attack was ever carried out or not is unclear.

9/ Jerry actively discussed stealing from a project with another DPRK IT worker via Nigerian proxy targeting Arcano, a GalaChain game.

However, it remains unclear if the attack later materialized. pic.twitter.com/p9QQLHbB91

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) April 8, 2026

The admin also distributed 43 Hex-Rays/IDA Pro training materials to the group between November 2025 and February 2026. These sessions focused on disassembly, decompilation, both local and remote debugging, and a range of cybersecurity techniques. One link shared on November 20 was explicitly titled: “using-ida-debugger-to-unpack-an-hostile-pe-executable”.

ZachXBT concluded that this DPRK IT worker cluster appears relatively unsophisticated compared with outfits like AppleJeus and TraderTraitor, which run much tighter operations and pose a far greater systemic threat to the crypto industry. His earlier estimated that North Korean IT workers collectively pull in several million dollars a month is reinforced by this dataset.

Today, the investigator posted an update explaining that the internal DPRK payment portal has been pulled offline following the publication of his findings. All of the data was fully captured and archived beforehand.

Update: The internal DPRK payment site has since been taken down after my post.

However all data was archived in advance. pic.twitter.com/9cRdopal5g

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) April 9, 2026

Crypto is now deeply embedded in geopolitical shadow economies. On‑chain transparency cuts both ways for users and adversaries.

It wouldn’t be surprising if markets start to price higher compliance costs for CEXs and OTC desks, or if there is more friction for stablecoin flows in sanctioned regions. The North Korean saga surely raises the odds of more aggressive enforcement against cross‑border flows, privacy tools, and high‑risk venues.

Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet Records Billions Of Dollars In Losses

Strategy recently filed its Form 8-K for the first quarter of the year 2026, and it showed major losses for the company and its Bitcoin strategy. According to the form, the company’s Bitcoin holdings were down over $14 billion in Q1 alone, reflecting the decline that the btc price has suffered during this time.

Despite the Bitcoin price and its holdings moving underwater, Strategy had continued to purchase Bitcoin. Throughout the first quarter of the year, the company made a total of 12 different BTC purchases, with the lowest being a $40 million haul.

By the time the company was done in Q1, it had spent over $7 billion buying BTC in three months, adding more than 89,000 BTC to its already massive stash. This brought the total spend that the company has made over the years buying BTC to over $57 billion.

Despite the filing showing billions of dollars in losses, the company is right back to buying Bitcoin again. On April 6, the company reported another purchase of 4,871 BTC at an average price of $67,718. This cost the compass $329.9 million, bringing its total BTC spend so far to $58.02 billion.

The Bitcoin price has since rebounded from its Q1 lows and is trending high again, but the company is still underwater. Its current cost basis sits at $75,644 per coin, so as long as the BTC price stays below this level, then the company’s BTC holdings remain underwater.

As for the company’s stock price, it has followed the downward trajectory of Bitcoin. The MSTR stock price is sitting round $163 at the time of this report, down by more than 50% from its 2025 peak above $400. As for its BTC holdings, Saylor has previously said that the company has no plans to sell its BTC, and in fact will keep accumulating BTC for the foreseeable future.

In a new blog post, the company projects that between 2028 and 2048 as much as $100 trillion could pass from “Baby Boomers” to “Millennials” and “Generation Z, groups that are far more likely to view crypto as a standard part of their financial lives. 

That demographic and capital movement, Chainalysis argues, will drive an enormous increase in on‑chain stablecoin activity and accelerate adoption of crypto payment rails.

Why Chainalysis Predicts Stablecoin Surge

Chainalysis bases its forecast on two converging trends. First, beginning around 2028, the composition of the adult population in North America and Europe will change.

Millennials and Gen Z — groups among whom nearly half have at some point held cryptocurrency — are expected to become the dominant economic actors, gradually replacing Generation X and Boomers in influence and purchasing power. 

Second, estimates from institutions such as Merrill Lynch suggest as much as $100 trillion could transfer to younger generations by 2048. Chainalysis calculates that this generational transfer alone could add roughly $508 trillion to annual stablecoin transaction volumes by 2035.

Beyond direct wealth transfers, Chainalysis highlights point‑of‑sale (POS) adoption as a second major driver. The firm estimates that POS saturation of stablecoin rails could contribute as much as $232 trillion in annual stablecoin volume by 2035. 

Taken together, the influx of inheritable capital and broader merchant adoption would produce a new payments baseline where stablecoin rails constitute a core element of the infrastructure that moves money.

Crypto Transactions Could Match Visa And Mastercard

If current trends in transaction growth continue, Chainalysis says on‑chain stablecoin transactions could reach parity with the off‑chain transaction counts of Visa and Mastercard sometime in the 2031–2039 window. 

The report cautions, however, that adoption rarely follows a straight line: network effects, user incentives, and technological improvements could bring that crossover earlier. 

As consumers evaluate payment options, they are likely to compare crypto rails with traditional systems on familiar metrics — fees, settlement times, and rewards — and stablecoin‑linked cards and services could compete directly with legacy providers.

Chainalysis sees these dynamics already prompting strategic moves by established financial players. The blog post points to actions such as Stripe’s acquisition of Bridge and Mastercard’s partnership with BVNK as examples of incumbents positioning themselves to operate on both traditional and on‑chain rails. 

The firm argues that, for banks and payments companies, the choice is becoming binary: build infrastructure and partnerships to capture flows from crypto‑native customers or risk ceding transactions to alternative rails operated by others.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Stablecoin Yield Is Not A Threat

On Wednesday, the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) released the highly anticipated study on a key issue that has become a major point of contention between the banking and crypto industries over the past few months: stablecoin yield and its potential impact on deposit flight and bank lending.

For context, the landmark crypto legislation, the GENIUS Act, requires issuers to maintain reserves backing outstanding stablecoins on a one-to-one basis and to hold these reserves in certain assets, including US dollars, Federal Reserve notes, and short-term US Treasuries.

The bill also introduced key restrictions that prohibit issuers from offering any form of interest or yield to stablecoin holders. The banking industry has urged US lawmakers to extend the prohibition to digital asset exchanges, brokers, dealers, and related entities, which has led to prolonged debate and delay of the crypto market structure bill, also known as the CLARITY Act.

While some analysts estimate that the effect of lending in the trillions of dollars, the CEA report found that eliminating stablecoin yield would only boost bank lending by $2.1 billion, equivalent to a 0.02% increase.

Large banks would conduct 76% of this additional lending, while community banks—which have assets below $10 billion—would lend the remaining 24%. In our baseline, that adds up to $500 million in additional lending from community banks, meaning their lending rising by 0.026%.

As they noted, even under the worst-case assumptions, the CEA’s model produced only $521 billion in additional aggregate lending, corresponding to a 4.4% increase in bank loans as of Q4 2025.

Moreover, that figure would require the stablecoin market to grow sixfold as a share of deposits, all reserves to be locked in unlendable cash instead of US treasuries, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) to “abandon its current monetary framework.”

“Even under those implausible conditions, community bank lending only rises by $129 billion, corresponding to an increase of 6.7%,” the White House economists emphasized, concluding that prohibiting yield would have only a moderate impact on overall lending in the banking system.

The conditions for finding a positive welfare effect from prohibiting yield are similarly implausible. In short, a yield prohibition would do very little to protect bank lending, while forgoing the consumer benefits of competitive returns on stablecoin holdings.

Regulatory Uncertainty More Harmful Than Rewards

The CEA study directly contradicts one of the banking sector’s main arguments for banning stablecoin yield: it would mostly affect community banks. In January, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told investors that the banking industry could face significant challenges if the US Congress does not prohibit interest-bearing stablecoins.

During its Q4 earnings call, the executive stated that up to $6 trillion in deposits, roughly 30% to 35% of all US commercial bank deposits, could flow out of the banking system and into the stablecoin sector, citing Treasury Department studies.

The CEO asserted that while Bank of America would not be affected by this issue, small- and medium-sized businesses would be particularly hurt, as they’re “largely lent to end consumers by the banking industry.”

Earlier this year, the Independent Community Bankers of America affirmed that offering interest on payment stablecoins could drain community bank deposits and limit credit availability for local economies.

The group asserted that allowing digital asset entities to pay interest, yield, or “rewards” on payment stablecoins would significantly reduce community banks’ ability to support local lending needs, potentially losing $1.3 trillion in deposits and $850 billion in loans.

Nonetheless, a former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chief, Chris Giancarlo, said in March that banks require regulatory clarity more than the crypto industry.  He argued that banks will be hesitant to invest in new technology without clear rules, and their systems will eventually be obsolete.

“The banks, however, can’t afford regulatory uncertainty. Their general counselors are telling their boards, you can’t invest billions of dollars in this (…) unless you’ve got regulatory certainty. (…) The banks need this clarity because they need to build this. They need to be in the forefront, not in the rear guard of this innovation,” he stated.

Bitcoin Network Has 6.26 Million Tokens With Exposed Public Keys

Hardware entrepreneur Rodolfo Novak has made two X articles discussing what research papers on Quantum Computing could reveal about how real the threat is to Bitcoin.

Quantum Computing is an emerging technology that leverages laws of quantum physics to solve problems that are extremely difficult for classic computers. It’s been an “upcoming” technology for a while now, but lately, it has been coming up in news more often.

In the context of Bitcoin, many speculate that Quantum Computers could be used to threaten the network in two ways. The first is via deriving a wallet’s private key from its public key. If successful, this can allow the attacker to gain access to the wallet’s balance.

That said, the threat only applies to wallets that have their public keys exposed. Currently, there is a combined 6.26 million BTC sitting in such wallets, including Satoshi’s coins. That’s equivalent to approximately 31% of the cryptocurrency’s supply in circulation.

The other potential threat that Quantum Computing poses to Bitcoin is by offering a significant speedup to the task of the miners. Novak has argued, however, that this application of Quantum Computing is unfeasible. According to a 2025 paper, the energy requirements for Quantum mining Bitcoin are so great that power can be measured relative to the Sun’s. “To mine Bitcoin with a quantum computer, you would need roughly 3% of the Sun’s total energy output,” noted Novak.

While Quantum mining is a pipedream, the other threat still remains. That said, it doesn’t mean that it’s here or even close to arriving. Novak has highlighted that breaking BTC’s cryptography requires the equivalent of factoring a 1,300 digital number. So far, Quantum Computers haven’t come close to achieving such a feat.

As the below table shows, Quantum Computing has also failed to deliver on major predictions until now, with the exception of one target.

While Quantum Computing could still be some distance away, Novak has stressed that it’s important to upgrade Bitcoin. In the past, the cryptocurrency has already pushed out major upgrades, but progress can be slow. Work on a quantum resistant proposal called BIP-360 has already been underway.

The real threat to BTC may not even be Quantum Computing. Historically, many cryptographic systems have eventually been broken by classical mathematical models alone. Novak noted:

This is the actual reason Bitcoin should adopt alternate cryptographic schemes. Not because quantum computers are coming — they might never arrive. But because relying on a single cryptographic assumption for a $2 trillion network is exactly the kind of risk that serious engineering addresses proactively.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $72,600, up nearly 6% over the last 24 hours.

Tankers Must Pay In Bitcoin Within Seconds 

Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, told the Financial Times that Tehran intends to assess each vessel seeking passage and levy a fee, communicated by email, that must be paid in digital currency. 

“Iran needs to monitor what goes in and out of the strait to ensure these two weeks aren’t used for transferring weapons,” Hosseini said, noting his industry association works closely with the state. 

Hosseini described a process in which ship operators must disclose cargo details by email, after which Iran will determine the crypto toll and give the vessel only a few seconds to complete payment in Bitcoin so the transaction cannot be traced or seized under sanctions.

The announcement follows President Donald Trump’s post on Truth Social in which he said he would suspend strikes on Iran for two weeks, provided Tehran agreed to the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” 

Trump said that conversations with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, who asked him to hold off on military action, helped shape the decision. 

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has set out a 10‑point basis for negotiations, including a new “protocol for secure passage” developed in coordination with Iran’s armed forces, signaling Tehran’s intent to retain leverage over the waterway even while talks proceed.

Historic Real‑World Use Case

While Bitcoin has broken the consolidation range below $70,000 amid short-term relief for the market, some analysts argue that accepting digital currency for strategic tolls is an unprecedented real-world use of a censorship-resistant asset. 

Analysts at TFTC wrote on social media platform X that this represents “the largest real‑world stablecoin use case ever recorded,” contrasting sovereign adoption to prior crypto activity such as decentralized finance (DeFi) yield farming or non-fungible token (NFT) speculation. 

Their comment underscores the notion long advanced by some in the crypto community: when a state is shut out of the dollar system, it may turn to alternative payment rails to sustain trade and collect revenues.

Already, only a handful of vessels — mainly those with ties to Iran and not connected to the US, Israel, or Gulf states that supported recent strikes — have received approval to transit on restricted routes in the past fortnight. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $71,570, having recorded gains of 4.6% over 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) have followed suit, achieving gains of 6%, 4%, and 5%, respectively, in the same period. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A Net Wide Enough To Catch Indirect Backers

Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission put forward a proposal this week that would require regulatory approval not only for direct major shareholders in crypto businesses, but also for anyone providing financial support to those shareholders behind the scenes.

That includes backers working through share acquisitions, guarantors, and parties to contractual arrangements that effectively give them a funding role.

According to the regulator, the new rules are designed to cut off capital flows that may be tied to unlawful activities — money that could expose licensed firms to legal trouble or damage their standing in the market.

The proposal arrives as part of a wider push by Thai authorities to tighten controls across both traditional and digital finance. Reports indicate Thai crypto platforms froze 10,000 accounts earlier this year as part of an anti-money laundering drive.

A separate campaign targeting so-called “gray money” was launched in January, covering physical markets alongside digital ones.

Who Gets Reviewed — And Who Gets A Pass

Under the proposed framework, the approval requirement would extend to financial supporters of legal entities that themselves hold shares in crypto operators — not just the operators’ direct shareholders.

ก.ล.ต. เสนอเพิ่ม “ผู้ให้แหล่งเงินทุน” เป็นผู้ถือหุ้นรายใหญ่ที่ผู้ประกอบธุรกิจหลักทรัพย์และผู้ประกอบธุรกิจสินทรัพย์ดิจิทัลต้องขอรับความเห็นชอบ ยกระดับการสกัดกั้นทุนเทาให้เข้มข้นขึ้นhttps://t.co/QoOe6z8xmx

— ThaiSEC_News (@ThaiSEC_News) April 7, 2026

The SEC said the rules would apply to anyone whose financial role gives them, in substance, the standing of a major funder, regardless of how that arrangement is structured.

There is one notable exception. If a major shareholder happens to be a government body — a ministry, public agency, or similar entity — the SEC said it would only look at ownership at that entity’s level.

Officials said those bodies are already under government supervision, making a deeper review unnecessary.

The proposal is open for public comment until April 22.

Thailand is not acting alone. Based on reports, South Korea’s regulators are weighing a separate but related measure that would cap ownership stakes in crypto exchanges at 20%.

The back-to-back moves suggest that Asian financial watchdogs are paying closer attention to who controls — and who funds — the companies handling public crypto transactions.

For Thai crypto firms, the practical impact of the new rules will depend heavily on how regulators define terms like “significant funding” once the consultation period closes and a final version is drafted.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Ex-Ripple CTO Reveals Why Banks Will Choose XRP

Crypto enthusiast Mason Versluis has raised a sharp and legitimate concern about the incentive structures behind XRP’s adoption by banks. In a post on X, Versluis asked holders why they believe global banks will use XRP, and drive a price rally that could make Ripple one of the wealthiest financial institutions in the world. 

Versluis noted that Ripple currently owns over 40% of XRP’s total supply, which is roughly 34 billion escrowed tokens. If banks widely adopt XRP, the value of this already substantial holding could rise sharply, making Ripple wealthier.

His argument points to a potential conflict of interest, questioning whether banks, which are essentially being asked to enrich a competitor, would willingly go along. In other words, he’s basically asking why banks such as JPMorgan or HSBC would want to be the engine that makes Ripple richer than all of them. 

Schwartz responded with a dismissive one-liner, essentially mocking the logic behind the concern. The former Ripple CTO argued that it would be irrational for banks to reject a genuinely useful and innovative technology simply because it also benefits the company monetarily. His sarcastic comment suggested that banks would rather evaluate XRP’s technology on its merits rather than worry about inadvertently enriching Ripple. 

Why XRP Has An Edge Over Stablecoins Like USDT

During the discussion between Schwartz and Versluis, a different crypto community member raised a more strategic question. He asked if XRP’s “technology is still relevant in the age of stablecoins.”

Related Reading: Are Institutions About To Trigger A Massive XRP Supply Shock? Here’s How Much They’re Holding

Notably, stablecoins like USDT and USDC have exploded in adoption precisely because they address the volatility and stability issues that make most cryptocurrencies impractical for payments. Schwartz, however, pushed back thoughtfully against this view, providing a more detailed answer than his earlier response to Versluis. 

The former Ripple CTO outlined “three big advantages” cryptocurrencies like XRP have over stablecoins. His first point addressed cross-border transfers, noting that stablecoins are usually pegged to a single currency. As such, users could face difficulties sending money to multiple countries with different currencies because they may not find a stablecoin widely accepted and easily convertible in many jurisdictions. 

His second point focused on centralization, control, and security. Schwartz stated that stablecoins can be frozen or seized by their issuers, who are subject to legal and government pressure. He described a scenario where AI agents or individuals in unclear legal situations may not be able to rely on a court to protect their assets from being frozen. In contrast, decentralized cryptocurrencies like XRP, designed to be censorship-resistant, mitigate this risk, giving users greater freedom and protection.

Lastly, Schwartz highlighted the potential gains from holding cryptocurrencies compared to stablecoins. While USDT remains idle, generating no returns and could even lose buying power due to inflation, XRP offers an attractive combination of speed, cross-border payments, and the potential for price appreciation.

Active Wallet Count On XRP Ledger Falls Sharply

After a period of growth, activity on the XRP Ledger appears to be losing momentum at a substantial rate as investors exit the network. Data from Santiment, a popular market intelligence and on-chain data analytics platform, shows that the number of active wallet addresses on the network has fallen sharply in recent sessions.

This reduction points to a slowdown in user engagement, with fewer users engaging with the network through transactions and transfers. Over the past year, the average wallet addresses that have been active on the Ledger have seen an average 41% drop in their investments. When on-chain activity drops to this level, it may be the result of declining demand or a brief pause in usage after periods of increased interest from users.

According to the on-chain platform, this marks the lowest MVRV (Mean Value to Realized Value) for XRP traders since the FTX collapse that took place in November 2022, triggering a bear market phase that ran for several months. The positioning suggests a cooling phase for the XRP ecosystem, which could play a key role in its long-term prospects.

In the meantime, this development could influence trading activity. Santiment highlighted that large negative average returns derived from actual trader yields indicate that there is significantly less risk than average when purchasing or increasing your XRP positions. 

This is possible because cryptocurrencies are zero-sum trading games. However, it is largely attributed to the fact that competing traders are already in a severe condition, which the platform flags as “blood in the streets’ territory. 

Is The Altcoin In Its Bottoming Phase?

After falling sharply, analysts are predicting a possible bottoming phase for XRP as the downward trend stalls. According to Crypto X AiMan on X, this might be the bottom for XRP. Currently, the altcoin’s price is sitting around $1.30, down from $3.50 last year, which is one of the signs that the crash might be nearly over.

The analyst has also drawn attention to key indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), reinforcing this narrative. Data shows that the RSI has moved into extremely oversold levels in addition to a collapse in crypto interest on Google Trends and X. Historically, the expert claims this is when bottoms are formed.

Other events, such as impending rate cuts, cooling global tensions, and renewed liquidity into risk assets, add an extra layer to this bottoming narrative. AiMan added that the crypto market cap, valued at $2.3 trillion, is still tiny compared to the stock market, which is why many believe crypto is still in its early stages.

Years from now, he claims investors will look back at current prices as a gift when the sector takes off. As a result, he believes that XRP may have already reached its bottom for this cycle.

A Framework Built On Reserve And Risk Standards

The FDIC’s board voted this week to put forward rules that would set standards for reserves, redemptions, capital requirements, risk management, and custody practices for coin issuers operating under its watch.

The proposal applies to FDIC-supervised banks and savings institutions — more than 2,700 of them — and is tied to the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, better known as the GENIUS Act, which was signed into law last July.

The law handed the FDIC formal authority over transaction activity inside the institutions it already supervises. Full implementation is scheduled for January 18, 2027, unless the rules take effect earlier.

Today, our Board of Directors approved a proposed rule that would establish requirements under the GENIUS Act for FDIC-supervised stablecoin issuers.https://t.co/VAnMhwyGo5 pic.twitter.com/1A8sqGRlvk

— FDIC (@FDICgov) April 7, 2026

This is the agency’s second move to put the GENIUS Act into practice. Back in December, the FDIC put forward a separate plan to set up an application process for insured depository institutions wanting to issue payment stablecoins through subsidiaries. Tuesday’s announcement builds on that earlier step.

The Coverage Gap Stablecoin Users Should Know About

Here’s the part that may surprise some holders. While the reserves that back a stablecoin would be insured under the proposed rules, the people actually holding those stablecoins would not be.

The FDIC said extending deposit insurance directly to stablecoin holders would conflict with the text of the GENIUS Act itself, which explicitly bars payment stablecoins from being covered by federal deposit insurance.

The agency acknowledged the limitation but argued the rules would still benefit everyday users. A more tightly regulated environment, officials said, means stablecoin holders get stronger assurances that the issuers behind their tokens are being held to serious regulatory standards — even if a federal safety net doesn’t cover them directly.

The FDIC is not working alone. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is running its own parallel effort to bring the GENIUS Act to life. Its reach goes further — covering national bank subsidiaries and certain nonbank stablecoin issuers that fall outside the FDIC’s jurisdiction.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

CasiTrades’ rationale is that this is not a true change in structure yet, but another move inside a larger bearish pattern that has still not been invalidated.

This Bounce Could Be A Trap

According to the chart shared with the analysis, XRP is shown pushing into resistance in a completed five-wave move. The analyst paired that with bearish divergence on the RSI, where the momentum ticked higher even as price failed to produce a stronger breakout. As it stands, the RSI is pressing near the upper end of its recent range, which supports an idea of a bearish reversal proposed by CasiTrades.

The idea from the analyst is that the latest strength may be more exhaustion. There have been bullish candlesticks on the hourly timeframes over the past few days, but according to the analyst, this is exactly where traders get caught. Despite the green candlestick, the XRP price is yet to make a new high above $1.4. Instead, the five-wave move mentioned above is starting to meet resistance. 

A fast rebound can feel like the start of a reversal, especially when price snaps back into the same zone that recently rejected it. However, without a new high, nothing has changed. This is still just noise inside the same larger pattern.

The Price Levels That Matter Most

The basis of this analysis is a warning that the XRP price is still going to reverse into another extended crash that eventually brings it below $1. According to CasiTrades, XRP is still trading right between support and resistance, and multiple degrees are aligning to the downside. 

The chart lays out a very specific roadmap of the price levels that matter most on the way down. The first downside target is at $1.13, which CasiTrades treats as the initial leg lower once the current noise clears out. This would mark a return to XRP’s price bottom during the early February crash.

The projection allows for a short relief bounce after touching $1.13 before another move into the macro 0.786 support around $1.08. The final leg in the bearish sequence is a projected break below $1 and into the 0.854 support zone around $0.87. This move would be the end of a larger corrective impulse wave 2.

The bearish case does not remain valid forever. CasiTrades makes that clear by pointing to the 0.618 zone overhead as the level bulls need to reclaim and flip into support. That target is around $1.40.

Bitcoin Market Is Still Bearish

An increasing amount of on-chain data is starting to give Bitcoin a wary outlook, as a crucial market indicator suggests that downward pressure is likely to persist. This signal emerges from the Bitcoin Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index (TBBI), a key metric that captures multi-year sentiment cycles and reveals the real structure positioning of the market beyond short-term volatility. 

Joao Wedson, the founder of Alphractal and market strategist, stated that this chart shows that bears are hiding from the market, and it is currently sitting in extreme bearish territory. While price action has shown signs of consolidation, this is a sign that selling momentum may not yet be exhausted.

Historically, this zone appears when retail investors are exhausted, narrative shifting fully negative, liquidity draining completely, and smart money begins absorbing supply quietly. In Wyckoff terms, this trend aligns with selling climaxes, springs, and final shakeouts. This is where trends tend to terminate, not where they begin to collapse.

At this point, Wedson claims that downside risks are still present. However, it tends to be more limited and contained, as any further drops here are likely to be smaller in magnitude. During this period, a sharp move like a $15,000 shakeout remains on the table for Bitcoin, the kind that creates one final wave of panic across the market.

Despite how significant this drop could affect Bitcoin, Wedson stated that structurally, this resembles a late-stage fear. Over the next few weeks, sentiment is expected to remain depressed while BTC’s price moves sideways or slightly lower. Typically, this is the right time when the market feels the most hopeless, which ultimately triggers the shift.

In the meantime, the expert anticipates a gradual shift into bullish territory again while the broader market is still losing interest. A trend like this could mark the final 5 months of fear and disinterest in Bitcoin, followed by 5 months of steady accumulation by Bitcoin OG investors.

Investors’ Activity Hints At A Recovering Market

Despite Bitcoin’s persistent sideways price action, some indicators have flipped into positive territory once again. CW, a data analyst and verified author at CryptoQuant, has drawn attention to the BTC Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator, which shows the underlying market structure.

Currently, the metric is positioned at the borderline between a bull market and a bear market. However, after a period of indecision, the indicator has moved back to a bull market signal, suggesting a sign of recovery underneath the surface. 

CW noted that the indicator is becoming increasingly confusing. Meanwhile, the most realistic signal here is that the balance of BTC whale investors is rising extremely fast.

The draft rule translates the statute’s requirements into concrete anti‑money‑laundering (AML) and sanctions‑compliance obligations for permitted payment stablecoin issuers (PPSIs), bringing the industry closer to clear standards.

Stablecoin Issuers To Follow Bank Secrecy Act Rules 

The GENIUS Act directs that PPSIs be treated as financial institutions under the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and be subject to the full range of federal rules that apply to US financial firms. 

Treasury’s proposal follows that instruction, seeking to tailor requirements to the scale of each PPSI while aiming to reduce potential illicit‑finance vulnerabilities and protect national security. 

In essence, the draft rule sets out how stablecoin issuers must detect, report, and block unlawful activity while maintaining the tools needed to comply with lawful orders.

Issuers would be obliged to establish and maintain anti‑money‑laundering and countering‑the‑financing‑of‑terrorism (CFT) programs. These programs must be structured and documented to align with the core expectations of regulated entities as outlined by OFAC. 

Issuers are also mandated to adhere to recordkeeping and reporting rules, furnishing OFAC with certifications submitted to their primary federal or state payment stablecoin regulator to confirm the presence of a robust sanctions program.

Additionally, these programs are required to include provisions for reporting suspicious activities and technical capabilities to detect and handle transactions that breach federal or state laws, regulations, or court orders promptly. 

Payment stablecoin issuers must also possess the capacity to act swiftly in compliance with lawful orders and maintain effective sanctions compliance programs in accordance with OFAC standards.

Compliance Under The GENIUS Act

Treasury emphasized that the proposal is meant to be proportionate and adaptable. The GENIUS Act tasks the Secretary of the Treasury with issuing regulations tailored to the size and complexity of PPSIs, and the draft rule reflects that directive by focusing on outcomes and capabilities rather than a one‑size‑fits‑all checklist.

If finalized, the GENIUS Act rule would mark a significant step toward integrating payment stablecoins into the US regulatory regime for financial institutions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on the matter: 

President Trump is strengthening American leadership in digital financial technology. This proposal will protect the US financial system from national security threats without hindering American companies’ ability to forge ahead in the payment stablecoin ecosystem.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Why The Bitcoin, XRP, And Dogecoin Prices Are Up Today

The Bitcoin, XRP, and Dogecoin prices are up over 4% today, according to CoinMarketCap data. This comes amid the announcement by both the U.S. and Iran of a 2-week ceasefire. In a Truth Social post, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that both sides had agreed to a temporary ceasefire and that Iran also agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

Bitcoin, XRP, and Dogecoin prices also rose as Trump announced that, as part of the ceasefire, he has agreed to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for 2 weeks. This came just as the president’s deadline to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure neared, with the president already threatening to wipe out their ‘civilization.’

Trump also signaled that they are close to reaching a peaceful and conclusive settlement of the war, which is also a positive for the Bitcoin, XRP, and Dogecoin prices. He noted that they have already met and exceeded all military objectives and are very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East. 

Specifically, Trump revealed that they had received a 10-point proposal from Iran and that they believe it is a workable basis for negotiation. He added that almost all the points have been agreed to by the U.S. and Iran, and that the two-week period will allow them to finalize and consummate the agreement. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also posted a statement on X confirming the 2-week ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran war. He stated that Iran will cease its defensive operations as long as U.S.-Israeli attacks are halted. Araghchi also confirmed that they will ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz over the next two weeks. 

More Short Positions Liquidated 

The Bitcoin, XRP, and Dogecoin prices have also surged as more short positions are liquidated in the last 12 hours amid the agreement to a 2-week ceasefire by the U.S. and Iran. Over this period, $400 million in short positions have been liquidated while $110 million in long positions have been liquidated, according to CoinGlass data. 

It is worth noting that oil prices have crashed following the agreement of a ceasefire. Both Brent crude and WTI oil futures have crashed below $100, down 14% and 8%, respectively, in the last 24 hours. This comes as traders begin to price in a long-term settlement between the U.S. and Iran, which is a positive for the Bitcoin, XRP, and Dogecoin prices.

The report from XWIN Research Japan reframes the past six months in a way that changes how the current recovery should be read. Bitcoin is not, in their framework, a standard risk asset that rises and falls with market sentiment. It is a terminal liquidity asset — the last recipient in a hierarchical financial system where capital flows from central banks to government bonds to equities and finally, at the very end of the chain, to crypto. When the upstream flow weakens, Bitcoin does not experience demand destruction. It receives nothing. The capital simply never arrives.

That is what happened over the past six months. Elevated US interest rates, a strengthening dollar, and rising Japanese bond yields simultaneously tightened global liquidity from multiple directions. Japan — one of the largest external investors in global markets — reduced its capital exports as domestic bond yields made home markets more attractive. The result was not investors selling Bitcoin. It was investors who never bought it.

The bounce above $72,000 is visible. Whether the conditions that prevented the capital from arriving have changed is the question the price chart cannot answer.

The Sell-Off Was Not Spot. It Was Credit

The analysis adds the second layer that completes the structural picture. As global liquidity tightened and capital stopped reaching Bitcoin, the derivatives market compounded the damage through a mechanism separate from — and more destructive than — simple selling.

Excess leverage accumulated during the bull run began unwinding in cascading liquidations. Each forced exit consumed demand that would have entered the market in future sessions. The downside was not just the selling that happened. It was the buying that was destroyed before it could occur.

The on-chain data confirms this interpretation without contradicting it. STH-SOPR holding below 1.0 for sustained periods reflected short-term holders realizing losses — an outcome of the liquidity squeeze, not its cause. The Coinbase Premium Gap staying negative reflected weak US spot demand — again, an outcome. These indicators describe what was happening to participants at the retail level while the structural cause operated several layers above them in the global capital hierarchy.

The forward conditions are equally structural and equally precise. A new all-time high requires capital to flow back through the system — from central banks, through bonds, through equities, and finally to the terminal edge where Bitcoin waits. Two catalysts could accelerate that flow specifically: US midterm elections influencing fiscal expansion and rate expectations, and a potential Japan Bitcoin ETF that would open access to one of the largest pools of household savings in the world.

The past six months were not a verdict on Bitcoin. They were a consequence of where it sits in the financial system. The next major move will arrive when the system above it changes — not when the narrative does.

Bitcoin Reclaims $70K but Trend Structure Remains Unresolved

Bitcoin has pushed back above the $70,000 level after a sharp recovery from its February lows, but the broader structure remains technically fragile. The chart still reflects a clear downtrend sequence from late 2025, with price consistently trading below the 100-day (green) and 200-day (red) moving averages. Both remain downward sloping, indicating that the macro trend has not yet shifted despite the recent bounce.

The February capitulation event marked a local exhaustion point, with a spike in volume and a rapid wick below $60,000, followed by stabilization. Since then, the price has formed a range between roughly $62,000 and $72,000, with multiple failed attempts to sustain a breakout above resistance. The recent move above $70,000 is notable, but it has not yet been accompanied by a decisive expansion in volume or follow-through.

Short-term momentum has improved, as Bitcoin is now testing the 50-day moving average (blue), but this level has acted as dynamic resistance throughout the downtrend. A confirmed reclaim of this zone would be the first structural signal of strength. Until then, the current move appears corrective within a broader bearish framework, not a confirmed trend reversal.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

SEC Turns On Its Own Track Record

The SEC released its 2025 enforcement results on Tuesday, and buried inside was a striking admission: a large number of cases brought in prior years against crypto companies produced no real benefit for investors.

According to the agency, 95 enforcement actions and $2.3 billion in penalties tied to record-keeping violations since fiscal year 2022 “identified no direct investor harm.”

The SEC added that seven cases involving crypto firm registrations and six others centered on the legal definition of a dealer also fell into that category.

Those cases, the agency said, reflected a bias toward racking up numbers rather than protecting the people the commission exists to serve.

That self-criticism landed with force. It was a direct indictment of the approach taken under former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who for years pursued what critics called regulation by enforcement — using legal action as a substitute for clear rules in the crypto space.

The agency itself used the phrase “unprecedented rush” to describe the push to file cases in the weeks before US President Donald Trump took office in January 2025.

Atkins Refocuses The Agency

Paul Atkins took over as SEC chair in April 2025 and moved quickly to change course. Officials said the commission has since redirected its attention toward fraud, market manipulation, and breaches of trust — the categories of misconduct that cause the clearest damage to ordinary investors.

Atkins said the old model prioritized “volume and record-setting penalties” over genuine protection.

Data shows the numbers back that up. Based on reports from consulting firm Cornerstone Research, SEC enforcement actions against public companies — including crypto firms — fell roughly 30% in fiscal 2025 compared to the year before.

A Repeating Structure Inside A Range

Technical patterns have a way of resurfacing across different markets, which is why analysts often study past price behavior of one cryptocurrency to predict how another cryptocurrency could also play out in the future. In many cases, these comparisons stay within the crypto market itself or extend to traditional stores of value like precious metals, where similarities in cycles and investor behavior are easier to justify.

This analysis, however, takes a different approach by stepping outside those usual comparisons. It provides a comparison between Ethereum’s current price structure and the way Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) traded between 2003 and 2009.

The chart highlights a sequence of six distinct interactions with range boundaries in both assets. In Netflix’s case, the price spent years bouncing between support and resistance, forming a compressed structure with multiple failed breakout attempts. Each rejection added to the range but also built pressure over time.

Ethereum’s price action on a multi-year timeframe is showing a nearly identical formation. Since 2021, the Ethereum price has repeatedly pushed into resistance around $4,900, pulled back to support, and returned again for another attempt. 

The current price action, which is the sixth interaction, places Ethereum near the lower boundary of the range, which is just the same stage Netflix was before its eventual breakout.

Price Chart Comparison. Source: @CryptoTice_ On X

Pressure Building. What Comes Next?

The structure outlined in the chart ultimately points to one outcome: a breakout rally. This is how Netflix broke out of the resistance trendline in 2009. The important thing for Ethereum now is reclaiming and holding above resistance above $4,900 with conviction. However, there are other intermediate price targets that Ethereum needs to break above before this move. These targets include $2,150, $2,350, $3,100, $3,900, and $4,600.

The analogy, however, is not without its critics. Some comments argue that comparing Ethereum to Netflix ignores the fundamental differences between the two. One comment, for instance, noted that Netflix’s consolidation took place during a period of steady business expansion, with clear growth in subscribers and revenue supporting its long-term trajectory.

Ethereum’s situation, on the other hand, is more layered and has a different economic regime. The rise of Layer 2 networks has moved activity away from the base layer, reducing fee generation at the protocol level. These factors, and many others, introduce unknowns that cannot be represented through chart structure.

Another Crypto-Mishap…But From Regulators

Strange things are happening in crypto today. Not only a top U.S. legacy outlet released a piece claiming to have uncovered Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity, but the SEC’s new Fiscal Year 2025 Enforcement Report contains an unusually blunt self‑critique: it admits prior leadership misallocated enforcement resources to chase media headlines and raw case counts instead of real investor protection.

Central to an effective enforcement program is determining which cases to bring and responsibly stewarding Commission resources. Regrettably, such resources have been misapplied in prior years to pursue media headlines and run up numbers, and in turn, led to misguided expectations on what constitutes effective enforcement.

According to the statement, since 2022 the Commission brought 95 “off‑channel communications” book‑and‑record cases with $2.3 billion in penalties, plus seven crypto registration and six “dealer definition” actions. The current Commission now says these showed “no direct investor harm”, produced “no investor benefit” and reflected a misinterpretation of federal securities law.

The Commission itself now characterizes these 95 book‑and‑record cases and 13 crypto matters as resource misallocation driven by a “bias for volume of cases brought versus matters of investor protection.”

The statement also notes that the SEC has dropped seven crypto-focused cases since February 2025, targeting Coinbase, Binance, Cumberland, Consensys Software, Payward (Kraken), Dragonchain, and Balina.

The SEC is publicly distancing itself from earlier, more expansive readings of securities law in crypto, implying that some marquee cases were built on legal glosses that will not be repeated and that may be harder to defend in court going forward. The recent interpretive release on crypto assets and the SEC‑CFTC alignment are part of the same course correction toward clearer categories of what is or isn’t a security, rather than treating tokens themselves as inherently embodying an investment contract.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins, who assumed the role in April 2025, has faulted his predecessors, claiming the agency did not keep pace with technological innovation. With Atkins, the SEC is recentering enforcement on classic fraud, market manipulation, and breaches of fiduciary duty. The FY 2025 results show 456 actions focused on misconduct that directly harms investors and market integrity

The Trump‑era shift has already seen crypto enforcement actions fall to their lowest level since 2017.

The SEC admission should reduce some litigation overhang and may encourage more projects to operate in the U.S., but fraud, market manipulation, and deceptive offerings remain squarely in the SEC’s crosshairs.

Enforcement reset could gradually improve risk sentiment around high‑quality assets and U.S. venues, though the unwinding of old cases and the new legal framework will likely produce periods of regulatory volatility and headline risk.

This represents a move from opaque, adversarial tactics toward clearer lines between commodities, tools, and true securities. Sophisticated traders should watch how quickly this policy shift flows into actual dismissals, settlements, and new listings.

Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSD chart from Tradingview.

The move came after days of rising tension and landed just hours after Trump had warned Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on key infrastructure.

Trump’s Deadline Eases Pressure

Trump made the announcement in a Truth Social post on Tuesday. “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks,” he said.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council then accepted the ceasefire, while stressing that the pause did not mean the war was over. Bitcoin jumped 2.55% in the hour after the news and reached $72,150 at the time of publication.

The rebound pushed Bitcoin above a level it had not seen since March 18. It also came after a rough stretch for the crypto market, where sentiment had weakened and traders had been bracing for more conflict. The last few sessions had been marked by caution rather than confidence.

That reaction fit a pattern seen before. When geopolitical stress climbs, risk assets often take a hit. When the pressure eases, money can move back just as fast. Bitcoin has been caught in that swing during past flare-ups, and this one was no different.

NEW: The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 7 and will begin negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council announced that the regime agreed to the ceasefire on April 7, several… pic.twitter.com/HXJssnavbX

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 8, 2026

Fear Still Lingered In Crypto Trading

Even after the pop, the market picture was far from calm. Market observers pointed to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which sat at an “Extreme Fear” reading of 11 on Tuesday. That suggested many traders were still wary despite the price bounce.

Trump had already added to the tension a day earlier, saying on Monday that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if the situation continued. By Tuesday, the tone had changed, but only for now. The ceasefire was tied to a short window, not a lasting settlement.

The speed of Bitcoin’s rise showed how quickly traders were ready to buy when the threat of more fighting eased. The price crossed $72,000 for the first time in 20 days, but the backdrop was still unstable, with both sides signaling that the conflict was not fully resolved.

For now, the market is treating the pause as relief, not closure. Bitcoin’s jump was sharp, but it was built on a ceasefire that could still shift if talks break down or the fighting resumes.

Featured image from Reuters-Yonhap, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s Macro Cycle Indicator Explains Where The Market Stands

In a recent X post, Wedson drew attention to the Accumulation Distribution Cycle Index (ADCI), a macro framework created by @arch_physicist and now used in research at Alphractal. The indicator was designed to analyze Bitcoin’s position within the broader structure described by the Wyckoff Method.

The ADCI organizes the market cycle into three distinct ranges, each representing a different stage of market behavior. When the index stays between 0 and 3, Bitcoin is typically in accumulation. These periods usually appear when sentiment is weak and participation is low, allowing larger investors to quietly absorb supply.

The 30 to 70 range signals a market that has already begun moving. In this zone, trends start to develop and expand. The direction of the index during this phase can reveal whether momentum is strengthening or beginning to deteriorate.

When the index moves between 70 and 100, the risk of distribution increases. This phase historically appears when market optimism grows, and demand expands, creating conditions where larger holders can begin offloading supply.

The chart shared alongside the post illustrates this pattern across multiple Bitcoin cycles. Previous peaks in the indicator appear near major price highs, while deep drops in the index tend to align with long accumulation periods that later preceded large price expansions.

What Investors Should Watch As Bitcoin Approaches This Phase

Wedson noted that distribution in the current cycle may not appear the same way it did in earlier markets. In the past, Bitcoin cycles often ended with a sharp blow-off top followed by a rapid correction.

However, as the market matures, distribution may occur more gradually. Instead of a sudden spike and collapse, the market could move sideways for extended periods while repeated rallies begin losing strength.

This type of structure allows stronger holders to slowly release supply while public demand remains active. Because of this, the key signal to watch is not just price spikes but signs of repeated exhaustion, slowing momentum, and prolonged sideways movement.

This is why macro indicators like the ADCI are being emphasized. By focusing on structural positioning rather than short-term price action, the model aims to identify whether Bitcoin is being accumulated or distributed before the shift becomes obvious to the wider market. If the index continues rising toward its upper range while price action begins showing exhaustion, it could indicate the market is entering the distribution phase of the cycle.

A NYT Journalist Claims To Have Unmasked Bitcoin’s Creator

A reporter trying to unmask Satoshi Nakamoto (and claiming success) is hardly news. Across 15 years of hunting, there have been countless of theories and tons of serious journalists assuring they had finally pinned down the real name of the creator of Bitcoin. However, this is the first time a top U.S. legacy outlet has directly named a Satoshi Nakamoto candidate: Adam Back, 55‑year‑old British cryptographer, Blockstream CEO, Hashcash creator, former Cypherpunk. The piece was written by John Carreyrou, an investigative reporter for the NYT who has won two Pulitzer Prizes.

This is also not the first time Back’s name is brought on as a Satoshi contendat. Back himself has denied this theory repeatedly, following years of YouTube sleuths, HBO docs and research reports circling his name. Carreyrou, however, found his denials so unconvincing that he used them as fuel to continue investigating on the connection.

The idea that Back is Satoshi came to Carreyrou after watching the 2024 HBO documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery”, that pointed at Hard Fork, a Canadian software developer. The journalist found the way Back tensed up in the documentary at the mention of his name amongst the Satoshi more convincing than the doc’s conclusion.

The other big idea Carreyrou had was to use the Satoshi Nakamoto e-mails that surfaced in the context of the UK COPA v. Craig Wright trial, where Wright tried to prove in court that he was Satoshi to assert copyright over the Bitcoin whitepaper –which clearly signaled that he wasn’t the creator of Bitcoin, as Satoshi Nakamoto disliked the idea of copyright and patents, and was a fierce advocate of open-source and public domains.

Emails Satoshi sent to other early Bitcoin adopters had surfaced before, but none came close in volume to the Malmi dump. If Satoshi was ever going to be found, I was convinced the key lay somewhere in these texts.

Amongst the submitted e-mails was correspondence shared between Back and Satoshi during 2008-2009, independently discussing Bitcoin’s design with Back, citing Hashcash and only learning about Wei Dai’s b‑money through Back’s recommendation —an incongruence Back himself has acknowledged, as Dai’s b-mobey was cited in the Hashcash whitepaper.

According to Carreyrou’s investigation, both Back and Satoshi sat in the same Cypherpunk lists in the 1990s, including the more obscure Cryptography list, trading emails about anonymized communication, digital cash and crypto‑anarchist ideals. The journalist provided evidence showing that Back sketched almost every core Bitcoin ingredient in the Cypherpunk list a decade before launch: decentralized e‑cash, independent nodes, resistance to government/censorship, and proof‑of‑work style spam prevention.

Back proposed combining his own Hashcash with Wei Dai’s b‑money idea, essentially the same recipe Satoshi later used for Bitcoin’s architecture. Hashcash itself is the direct conceptual ancestor of Bitcoin’s proof‑of‑work, and Satoshi explicitly cited Back’s paper in the 2008 whitepaper.

When Satoshi Nakamoto floated Bitcoin for the first time in Halloween 2008, Back disappeared from the conversations. However, Back got fully involved again after an Argentinian cryptographer made Satoshi’s fortune public on April 17, 2013.

For more than a decade, whenever electronic money was discussed on the Cypherpunks or the Cryptography list, Mr. Back had almost always chimed in, often with long, detailed posts. But when Bitcoin, the closest manifestation of the vision he had laid out, arrived, Mr. Back was nowhere to be found.

Back also holds a doctorate in distributed computer systems, matching the specialized skill set needed to design Bitcoin’s peer‑to‑peer network, incentive design and security model. He used the same programming language Satoshi used (C++) and worked professionally on securing computer networks and public‑key cryptography, which mirrors Satoshi’s toolkit.

Despite traditional stylometry not working, NYT’s Dylan Freedman used AI-based computational text analysis to filter thousands of old cypherpunk posts for British spelling, specific grammar tic patterns (like “also” at sentence ends, certain hyphenation mistakes and “its/it’s” slips). Back’s writing survived every filter, landing him in a tiny pool of eight final suspects.

Summing up, the investigation argues that the overlap of ideology, technical design, code skills, network position and language quirks is so tight that to call it “coincidence” stretches plausibility.

Back continued to deny being Satoshi when Carreyrou confronted him with this evidence during a Bitcoin conference held in El Salvador. Carreyrou, however, argues that Back’s way of denying it strengthened his suspicions once again.

Every serious “Satoshi theory” so far has eventually run into the same wall: nobody has produced cryptographic proof. Hal Finney and Nick Szabo had the right ideas at the right time, from reusable proof‑of‑work to “bit gold,” but both denied being Satoshi and never signed a message with early keys. Newsweek’s Dorian Nakamoto scoop, the Len Sassaman hypothesis and Craig Wright’s courtroom implosion all showed how fragile narrative‑driven cases are once they meet hard evidence. Even newer theories that cast Jack Dorsey or a shadowy “2010 megawhale” as the mastermind rely on stylistic forensics and on‑chain heuristics, not on movement of Satoshi‑era coins or a verifiable signature.

Many Bitcoin builders argue that not knowing Satoshi is a feature: it strengthens the “no founder, no CEO” commodity narrative. A persuasive mainstream story that “Bitcoin has a de facto founder” could embolden regulators and litigants to re‑open questions about control, intent and even securities‑style arguments, even if the crypto community rejects the premise.

Unless the NYT story is followed by an on‑chain move from Satoshi‑linked wallets or hard evidence, the market is likely to fade the headline and revert to watching funding, options skews and ETF flows. A genuine proof‑of‑identity event, however, would be a volatility shock with unknown tail risks.

Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSD chart from Tradingview.

Ripple Falls Behind Others For RWA Value

Data from the RWA.xyz website, which is a website that tracks the RWA market and the performance of blockchains in the space, shows who the RWA leaders are by numbers, and Ripple unfortunately falls behind. While the XRP Ledger is doing decent numbers, other blockchains continue to lead in this regard.

One example of this is that when it comes to the total distributed RWA value, Ethereum is the leading blockchain and not the XRP Ledger. In fact, using this metric, Ripple’s XRP Ledger does not even fall in the top 5 by volume, with competitors taking charge in this regard.

The top 5 RWA chains by distributed value are Ethereum, BNB Chain, Solana, Stellar, and Liquid Network. Their values come out to $15.54 billion, $3.5 billion, $1.949 billion, $1.41 billion, and $1.32 billion, respectively. The XRP Ledger comes in 8th place with $458.46 million, putting it behind the likes of Arbitrum and Avalanche.

XRP Ledger Ranks Low For RWA Users

The distributed value is not the only metric where the XRP Ledger falls behind competitors. Another metric is the user count, where the XRP Ledger is struggling even worse. In this case, the network ranks 10th place with fewer than 5,000 users. This is a stark contrast to Plume’s 259,000 users, Solana’s 184,000, and Ethereum’s 164,000, making them the top 3 chains by user base.

However, one metric where the XRP Ledger seems to shine when it comes to RWA is the represented value on the blockchain. While it is still not in first place, it ranks behind ZKsync Era with $2.2 billion for ZKsync Era and $1.5 billion for XRP Ledger. This puts it ahead of the likes of Ethereum, Solana, and Plume in this metric, showing there is still active participation on the blockchain.

Nevertheless, the RWA space looks to be rising rapidly as the website shows that the total Distributed Asset Value across blockchains has crossed into $27.68 billion. Meanwhile, there are over 710,000 holders, and $441.38 billion in Represented Asset Value.

Rising Fraud Concern

The FBI said US victims lost $11.4 billion to cryptocurrency fraud in 2025, a 22% increase from the prior year. That figure is based on 181,565 complaints involving crypto assets, itself up 21% year‑over‑year. 

The Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) logged 1,008,597 complaints in 2025, an increase from 859,532 in 2024. Phishing and spoofing, extortion, and investment schemes remained the complaint categories reported most often.

Older Americans suffered disproportionately large losses. Complainants aged 60 and older reported roughly $7.7 billion in losses — a 37% rise over 2024 — reflecting persistent targeting of retirees and other seniors. 

Another growing menace is the use of artificial intelligence (AI): for the first time, the report includes an AI section. The IC3 received 22,364 complaints tied to AI‑enabled scams in 2025, with reported losses approaching $893 million. 

Those schemes often deploy high‑pressure tactics while leveraging fabricated social profiles, voice cloning, counterfeit identity documents, and deceptively realistic videos of public figures or victims’ relatives to persuade targets to hand over funds.

California, Texas, Florida Lead In Crypto Complaints

The report also calls out fraud centered on cryptocurrency ATMs and kiosks. In 2025, there were 13,460 complaints linked to crypto ATM use, resulting in $389 million in losses — a 23% climb in complaints and a 58% jump in dollar losses compared with 2024. 

By crime type, investment schemes were the most common complaint category, with 61,559 filings. Extortion and phishing/spoofing were also prominent, with 23,797 and 7,164 complaints, respectively. 

The IC3 detailed a long list of other fraud types reported in 2025, including tech/customer support fraud, personal data breaches, employment scams, and business email compromise, among others.

Geographically, complaints were concentrated in populous states. California led the nation with 20,878 crypto‑related complaints, followed by Texas (13,965), Florida (13,381), New York (8,088), and Pennsylvania (5,118). 

The FBI also outlined its enforcement and prevention efforts. Operation Level Up, launched in 2024, has been a proactive outreach initiative to identify and notify people in the process of falling victim to cryptocurrency investment fraud. 

Since the program began, more than 8,000 potential victims have been alerted, and the operation has helped curtail losses by over $500 million. Building on that approach, the FBI launched Operation Winter SHIELD in 2026 to emphasize actionable steps organizations can take to strengthen their cybersecurity posture.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

DOJ Says Tornado Cash Founder’s Defense Is ‘Not Applicable’

On Tuesday, US Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton sent a letter to Judge Katherine Failla rejecting Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm’s recent letter in support of his motion for a judgment of acquittal.

Clayton’s response addressed an April 2 motion filed by Storm’s defense, which claimed that a 2026 Supreme Court case, Cox Communications, Inc. v. Sony Music Entertainment, supported his pending Rule 29 motion.

The Cox case involved a civil liability of an internet service provider for its subscribers engaging in copyright infringement. The Supreme Court found that Cox was not contributorily liable for copyright infringement on its users’ accounts, as it did not induce its users’ infringement nor provide a service tailored to infringement.

In the Tuesday filing, the US attorney argued that “The defendant and the Tornado Cash service are a far cry from Cox,” affirming that “Even if Cox had some applicability here, its reasoning offers no help to the defendant given the strikingly different facts at issue.”

“As set forth in detail in the Government’s response to the defendant’s Rule 29 motion— and in contrast to Cox’s robust system for responding to infringement—the defendant intentionally implemented mere half-measures that he said were ‘easy to bypass’ to counter criminal use of the Tornado Cash service, and his purpose in doing so was to distract law enforcement,” the document read.

Clayton added that Storm’s use of the crypto mixer “was window dressing at best and outright misdirection at worst,” as there was no evidence that the Tornado Cash founders put in place effective anti-money-laundering (AML) measures.

It’s worth noting that the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Tornado Cash in August 2022 for failing to impose effective controls to prevent malicious actors from laundering funds through the protocol, including $455 million by the North Korea-linked hacking group, Lazarus Group.

However, the sanctions were overturned in March 2025 after the Court of Appeals ruled in November 2024 that OFAC had overstepped its authority by sanctioning immutable, decentralized smart contracts rather than a legal entity.

US Prosecutors Seek Roman Storm Retrial

The prosecutors’ latest move follows his March letter seeking a retrial of the Tornado Cash co-founder on the two counts where jurors were deadlocked last August. In the letter, Clayton asked Judge Failla to schedule a retrial for Roman Storm, pushing for trial dates between October 5 and 12, 2026.

For context, Storm was detained and indicted following the Tornado Cash sanctions and charged with conspiracy to commit money laundering, conspiracy to commit sanctions violations, and conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business.

The jury found Storm guilty of one count of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business, but was unable to come to a unanimous decision regarding the two other charges. Nonetheless, a hung jury does not constitute an acquittal, which opened the door to a potential retrial on those charges.

In September, Storm filed a motion for acquittal, which asks the trial judge to throw out charges or a verdict because the prosecution’s evidence is legally insufficient. The Tornado Cash founder’s lawyers argued that the government never proved he meant to help bad actors launder money through the platform, which would invalidate the grounds for his conviction based on negligent inaction.

Now, prosecutors and Storm’s defense attorneys are scheduled to meet on April 9 for an oral argument on the pending Rule 29 motion, which could shape the course of this key legal battle.

US Continues Leading In Bitcoin Hashrate With 37.4% Share

In a new report, Hashrate Index has talked about how the global geographical heatmap of the Bitcoin Hashrate has changed compared to the last quarter. The “Hashrate” here refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of computing power that miners have attached to the BTC network. It’s measured in terms of hashes per second (H/s) or more practically, in exahashes per second (EH/s).

As the 7-day average chart for the indicator from Blockchain.com shows, the global Bitcoin Hashrate has declined this year.

Generally, there can be a few factors in play whenever the Hashrate declines, but a leading one tends to be the BTC price action. Miner rewards are denoted in BTC, so these validators depend on the cryptocurrency’s USD spot value for their revenue. When the asset declines, miners with less efficient machines can drop into loss and be forced to disconnect their rigs from the network.

Bitcoin has witnessed a significant drawdown since Q4 2025, so it’s not surprising to see that the 7-day average network Hashrate has decreased from 1,083 EH/s in October to 953 EH/s today.

Another factor that has probably been behind the Hashrate contraction is a pivot from major mining companies toward the AI datacenter business. Firms are deeming the industry to be more profitable than BTC mining, so some are even outright transitioning from Bitcoin to put their focus on it.

While the global Hashrate has declined, the trend in the computing power of individual nations has differed. For example, the United States lost Hashrate dominance of 0.13% since the start of 2026, but Kyrgyzstan and Paraguay gained shares of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

Below is a table shared by the Hashrate Index report that breaks down the current mining market share of the top 10 countries.

As is visible, the US, Russia, and China are the three most dominant nations in Hashrate today with shares of 37.4%, 16.9%, and 12%, respectively. Together, the countries make up for 65% of the global Hashrate. Generally, mining power centralization doesn’t tend to be a positive for the sector, as it means local policy changes or disruptions can shake the blockchain as a whole.

Before mid-2021, China was the most dominant player in the space, but following the mining ban, miners fled the country, causing a plunge in the total network Hashrate. This year, a snow storm in the US caused miners to turn off their machines, which once again showed up as a significant reduction in the global metric.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has retraced its recovery during the past day as its price has dropped to the $67,900 mark.

The upgrade, known as ML-DSA, replaces older cryptographic systems and produces signatures about 2,420 bytes in size. It supports quantum-resistant transactions, accounts, and consensus on the network.

Still In Testing, Not Yet Live

The changes are running on AlphaNet, XRPL’s developer network, and have not been pushed to the main network. Along with the new signature standard, the ledger supports built-in key rotation — a system that lets the network upgrade its cryptographic tools through validator agreement, without shutting down or touching user accounts.

Both features are part of a broader push by XRPL developers to get ahead of a threat that most of the crypto industry has not yet fully addressed.

Grayscale Research’s analysis of the @Google Quantum AI paper suggests breakthroughs may come in sudden leaps, not gradual steps. That means preparation can’t be delayed.

The good news: • Post-quantum cryptography already exists • Some chains like $SOL and $XRP Ledger are… pic.twitter.com/r5vtnnWCJj

— Grayscale (@Grayscale) April 6, 2026

That threat comes from quantum computing. Based on reports from Grayscale, a digital asset manager, the concern dates back to a mathematical breakthrough made by MIT’s Peter Shor in the mid-1990s.

Shor developed an algorithm that, if run on a powerful enough quantum machine, could crack the encryption protecting most blockchain networks today. No computer has been able to run it at the scale needed — but that window may be closing.

Google Research Points To Sudden Leaps, Not Gradual Progress

Grayscale’s report, authored by the firm’s head of research, Zach Pandl, referenced recent work from Google Quantum AI warning that progress in this area may not come in slow, predictable steps. It could arrive in sudden bursts.

According to Pandl’s report, reaching the level of computing power needed to break current encryption may require between 1,200 and 1,450 logical qubits. That threshold has not been crossed, but researchers say waiting until it is may leave networks with too little time to respond.

Grayscale pointed to XRPL and Solana as networks already running tests on post-quantum cryptographic tools. These are methods that have been reviewed, tested, and deployed in other real-world systems, including those protecting parts of today’s internet traffic. Their use in blockchain is still early, but the work is underway.

Risk levels vary depending on how a network is built. Reports indicate that Bitcoin may carry less technical exposure than other chains because of its design — it uses a transaction model that limits address reuse, relies on proof-of-work, and has no built-in smart contracts. Some Bitcoin address types are safer than others, as long as they are not reused.

Featured image from Mastercard Developers, chart from TradingView

The study finds that roughly eight African nations have already adopted crypto-specific rules, with several more moving toward formal frameworks. 

South Africa’s Policy Advances

Ripple highlights a nascent regional coordination: clearer regimes in major markets are beginning to serve as templates for neighboring countries, and cross-border fintech initiatives are fostering “a more harmonized ecosystem.” 

That regulatory momentum, the report argues, is underpinning concrete growth in on-chain activity and practical uses for digital assets across the continent.

The company reviews several national developments in detail. South Africa, Ripple notes, adopted a comprehensive framework in June 2023 that treats certain crypto assets as financial products. 

Under the new rules, Crypto Asset Service Providers (CASPs) in the country must be licensed and answer to both the Financial Sector Conduct Authority and the Financial Intelligence Centre. 

Johannesburg has also implemented the Financial Action Task Force’s Travel Rule and is continuing to explore policy for stablecoins and tokenization through its Intergovernmental Fintech Working Group.

Clearer Crypto Oversight

Kenya, the report says, has moved rapidly from proposals to law. A draft Virtual Asset Service Providers Bill introduced by the National Treasury in March 2025 became law in October 2025, transferring supervisory responsibility to the Central Bank of Kenya and the Capital Markets Authority. 

The country is conducting nationwide consultations on implementing regulations, and Ripple expects Kenya’s framework to be influential for the region in 2026 as it builds out its digital asset infrastructure.

Mauritius is presented as an early adopter. Its VAITOS Act of 2021 set one of Africa’s first comprehensive regimes, with rigorous anti-money laundering (AML) and counter‑terror financing rules. Ripple notes that Mauritius issued additional guidance on stablecoins in the past year and is exploring a fuller regulatory regime for them.

Nigeria, long one of Africa’s largest crypto markets, also appears to be formalizing its approach. The Investments and Securities Act 2025 recognizes digital assets as securities under the oversight of the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

The Central Bank of Nigeria has also eased earlier restrictions on banks working with licensed digital‑asset providers and launched a supervision pilot for several virtual asset service providers (VASPs). Ripple frames these moves as a substantial policy shift aimed at supporting innovation while protecting consumers.

Beyond these examples, Ripple documents a wider movement. Ghana’s central bank has begun registering virtual asset service providers as an initial step, and countries including Botswana, Namibia, and Seychelles have taken steps toward crypto-specific policy. 

Other jurisdictions — Ethiopia, Morocco, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, among them — are actively assessing regulatory options. The report stresses that this patchwork of reforms is converging toward greater clarity and interoperability across borders.

The report further highlights striking on-chain growth: Sub‑Saharan Africa recorded more than $205 billion in on-chain value between July 2024 and June 2025, a 52% year‑over‑year increase that ranked the region among the fastest‑growing crypto markets worldwide. 

Nigeria and Ethiopia, Ripple points out, ranked in the Top 15 of the 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index, underscoring strong grassroots demand for digital assets.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Tehran Pushes Back On Trump’s Ultimatum

Iran’s deputy minister of youth and sports, Alireza Rahimi, posted a public call on X urging athletes, artists, and young citizens to stand beside power stations across the country at 2 p.m. local time.

“Attacking public infrastructure is a war crime,” he wrote. The appeal came hours after Trump told reporters Monday that the US holds a plan to wipe out every Iranian bridge and power plant by midnight Tuesday — a deadline he tied to Iran’s refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a significant share of the world’s oil passes.

#BREAKING: Alireza Rahimi, Iran’s deputy minister of youth and sports, has called on Iranians to form human chains at power plants across the country to denounce the USA bombing threats against the facilities hours before Trump’s deadline for Iran ends.

— Aditya Raj Kaul (@AdityaRajKaul) April 7, 2026

Trump would not say whether the war was winding down or intensifying. He called it a “critical period” that depended entirely on what Iran chose to do next. But he left little doubt about the consequences if Tehran held firm. Iran, he said, could be “taken out in one night” — and that night might be Tuesday.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps fired back, calling Trump’s statements the “baseless” ramblings of a “delusional” president facing military setbacks. IRGC spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari warned that any repeated strikes on non-civilian sites would trigger a far larger retaliatory response. Iran’s foreign ministry separately urged Americans to hold their own government accountable for what it described as an unjust and aggressive war.

TRUMP’S DEADLINE: STRIKE, DEAL OR BLUFF

Donald Trump has set an 8 p.m. deadline, warning he will bomb major Iranian infrastructure if Tehran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Based on past behavior, three outcomes are possible:

Back down (unlikely): Trump could avoid…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 7, 2026

A ceasefire proposal drafted by mediating countries — calling for a 45-day pause and the reopening of the strait — went nowhere fast. Trump dismissed it Monday as a significant step but said it fell short. Iran rejected it outright, demanding a permanent end to the fighting rather than a temporary truce.

Commanders Killed, Nuclear Site Hit

The battlefield picture grew darker by the hour. Israel confirmed it killed Majid Khademi, the head of the IRGC’s intelligence organization, early Monday. Israel’s defense minister said Khademi bore direct responsibility for Israeli civilian deaths and was among the three most senior figures in the revolutionary guards.

Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei — who has not appeared in public since taking over following the assassination of his father at the start of the war — issued a written statement vowing that the killings would not break his forces.

Markets are feeling the tension. Bitcoin was trading around $68,210 on Tuesday, down roughly 2.50% as Trump’s deadline drew closer and ceasefire hopes faded. The cryptocurrency had briefly climbed to nearly $69,700 on Monday after news broke of the 45-day truce proposal, with trading volume spiking above $29 billion during a 3%-plus surge.

Reports indicate Bitcoin has been swinging between $66,000 and $71,000 since the conflict began in late February, mirroring how it behaved during earlier geopolitical shocks — dropping sharply on escalation, recovering when talks flicker.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

This indicator is the Bitcoin PMI, which is still sitting below where every true previous cycle peak has formed.

PMI Below 50 Has Never Marked A Bitcoin Peak

The PMI is a monthly economic indicator that measures the level of activity across both the manufacturing and services sectors. The PMI may seem disconnected from the Bitcoin price, but the foundation of this analysis comes down to a simple historical pattern with the two metrics. BTC has never printed a true all-time high at any point when the PMI was below 50, and that has held consistently across every past cycle. 

As shown in the chart below, each red-shaded zone represents extended periods where PMI was under the 50 threshold. These zones have consistently coincided with phases of consolidation and early trend development in the BTC price. On the other hand, major Bitcoin price tops have always formed after PMI breaks above 50 and enters expansion territory.

What makes the current cycle stand out is how long Bitcoin has been trading with the PMI indicator below 50. Even during the July to October 2025 period, when the Bitcoin price climbed to new highs and printed strong rallies, the PMI stayed below 50. This creates a disconnect between the current price action and a long-standing signal.

Calling The Top Now Could Be Premature

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $69,043, which places it about 45% below its all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025. There have been various reasons to believe that the Bitcoin price has already reached a peak for this cycle. 

These theories rely heavily on price-based signals and changes in sentiment, but the PMI model introduces a much larger context based on the activity in the manufacturing and services sectors.

According to a crypto analyst with the pseudonym Crypto Tice on the social media platform X, the people calling this the top are making the same mistake they made in 2019 and 2020. 

In that sense, what many are calling a top may instead be a lengthy accumulation period. If historical trends continue, the real cycle peak would only come once PMI moves above 50.

The Bitcoin-PMI chart above also shows how previous sub-50 periods ended. Each time, Bitcoin transitioned from these zones into stronger bullish phases once liquidity conditions improved. Those who interpreted the consolidation as a top ended up missing the best part of the rallies.

Euro Stablecoin Plans Eye Ethereum

A new chapter in blockchain adoption may be unfolding, and the Ethereum network is at the center of this transition as countries across the globe adopt the blockchain. Amid the shift, Ethereum is increasingly being considered as the settlement layer for a potential euro-denominated stablecoin.

Crypto Tice, a market expert and investor, took to the social media platform X to share the development, which has triggered a frenzy in the ETH community. The action demonstrates the increasing interest of politicians and financial institutions in utilizing Ethereum’s well-established infrastructure for practical financial applications. 

According to the expert, this move is not a pilot or a sandbox test, as blockchain solutions are being incorporated into Europe’s changing digital banking environment. Rather, it is Europe evaluating real infrastructure in the financial sector. By acting as the foundation for such a project, the network could be crucial in integrating traditional finance with decentralized technology.

Furthermore, the expert has offered insights into why this move matters for the network and the blockchain sector. The first reason is that public blockchains are being increasingly assessed for sovereign-grade settlement infrastructure.

Based on the risks associated with finance, this move would offer transparency, uptime, and security, which are now policy considerations. ETH being considered as a settlement layer for a Euro stablecoin implies that crypt rails are moving from markets, especially from the institutional level, to the governmental stage. 

Crypto Tice has debunked every speculation of hype around the move, claiming that this is about who settles money in the future. “Public blockchains just entered the sovereign conversation,” the expert added.

Stablecoin Market To Get A Boost?

In the meantime, the stablecoin market has slowed down. CW, a crypto investor and data analyst at CryptoQuant, highlighted that the stablecoin market cap has recently stalled at a certain level since October last year. Once this move is confirmed, the news is likely to bolster interest and demand for stablecoins, causing a wave of fresh capital into the market.

However, the growth of the stablecoin market cap is largely linked to the impending CLARITY Act, as the bill will trigger an explosive inflow of funds. In that scenario, the increase in the market cap will lead to a rally in the broader cryptocurrency market.

On crypto exchanges, stablecoin reserves are growing, with Binance experiencing a jump from $45.5 billion following a $2.5 billion March inflow. This jump comes after 3 months of persistent outflows. Darkfost stated that this turnaround is somewhat surprising considering the macroeconomic context. 

Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions and unfavorable conditions in March, liquidity flows have started to return to the crypto market. April is already moving in alignment with the pattern, recording more than $1 billion in net stablecoin inflows since the month began.

A report from analyst Maartunn has identified a transaction spike that stands out precisely because of where it did not appear. On April 2nd, altcoin inflow transactions to Binance jumped to approximately 34,000, the highest reading in two and a half to three months.

In isolation, a spike of that magnitude would suggest a broad return of altcoin activity across the derivatives and spot landscape. It would show up on Bybit. On Coinbase. On OKX. When traders return to altcoins at scale, the signal appears across venues simultaneously.

It did not. The spike was almost entirely contained within Binance. The other major exchanges registered no comparable activity on the same day. That isolation is not a data artifact — it is a signal. Something specific pulled traders to Binance on April 2nd, and it was not a generalized return of altcoin demand.

What changed on Binance the day before that spike is the question the data is already answering — and the answer is not what most altcoin watchers would expect.

The Answer Was Launched the Day Before the Spike

Maartunn’s explanation for the isolated Binance concentration is precise and structurally significant. The day before the April 2nd inflow spike, Binance rolled out new futures contracts tied to commodities — natural gas and WTI crude oil joining an instrument suite that already includes gold, silver, and multiple other traditional finance tickers. Those TradFi pairs are not peripheral additions. They are already appearing in Binance’s top volume pairs, sitting alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum in the platform’s most actively traded instruments.

The implication Maartunn draws from that sequence is the one that altcoin participants should sit with. The traders who arrived at Binance on April 2nd were not necessarily arriving for altcoins. They were arriving for oil. For gold. For the commodity futures that Binance had just made accessible on a platform, they already knew how to use. The altcoin inflow spike was not a signal of renewed altcoin demand — it was the footprint of a different migration entirely.

That migration has a name: the same pool of speculative capital that once rotated through altcoins is now finding new instruments to trade on the same venue. The liquidity did not leave crypto. It shifted within it — away from altcoins and toward assets that respond to the geopolitical and macroeconomic forces currently dominating global markets.

For altcoins, that shift is not neutral. Every trader who moves from an altcoin pair to a commodity futures contract is a trader who is no longer providing the bid-side liquidity that prices depend on. The migration may be gradual. The direction is clear.

Altcoin Market Cap Weakens as Lower High Structure Persists

The total crypto market cap excluding the top 10 is currently holding near $172 billion, but the broader structure reflects a weakening trend. On the weekly chart, price has formed a clear lower high after failing to sustain momentum above the $300 billion region, marking a shift from expansion to distribution.

The rejection from mid-2025 highs triggered a sustained decline, with the altcoin market cap breaking below the 50-week moving average and briefly testing the 200-week average. While the recent bounce from the $150 billion zone suggests some demand at lower levels, it has not been strong enough to reclaim the 100-week moving average with conviction.

All three key moving averages are now flattening or trending downward, with price trading beneath or around them. This alignment indicates a loss of trend strength and a transition into a range-bound or corrective phase rather than a renewed bullish cycle.

Volume patterns reinforce this view. Selling pressure has been more aggressive during downturns, while recovery attempts show weaker participation. That asymmetry suggests capital rotation away from smaller assets rather than broad-based accumulation.

If the $160–$170 billion range fails, downside toward $130 billion becomes likely. A sustained reclaim above $200 billion would be required to signal that altcoins are regaining structural strength.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Why Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Close Could Boost Price

In an X post dated April 4, Saylor announced that “Bitcoin has won,” suggesting that the cryptocurrency has officially secured its dominant position in the global financial system. He explained that the world now widely accepts BTC as a form of digital capital, reflecting the cryptocurrency’s deep integration as a means of payment and investment for everyday users. 

The Strategy founder further argued that Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle has ended, and that price movements are now guided by the inflows and outflows of capital from institutions and investors. This shift seems to be gradually moving BTC away from the sharp bull-and-bear market patterns tied to past halving cycles. 

Saylor also added that Bitcoin’s growth in the coming years will largely depend on traditional bank credit and emerging digital lending channels. These funding sources are expected to play a bigger role in shaping how quickly and how far Bitcoin’s value could expand in the future. Moreover, the adoption of established financial instruments could help stabilize BTC’s price trajectory, which is often influenced by speculation and volatility. 

Concluding his post, Saylor warned that the greatest risks come from having poor ideas that lead to unnecessary or damaging changes to the Bitcoin protocol. He cautioned that such misguided updates could harm the network if allowed to take root. Essentially, the Strategy founder is urging developers and users to protect the protocol from ill-advised alterations to preserve continued growth and success.  

BTC Critic Fires Back At Saylor’s Remarks

Responding directly to Saylor’s post, global economist and Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff pushed back against the remarks. He argued that any claimed consensus about BTC’s status as digital capital exists only in Saylor’s mind. However, Schiff did agree that capital flows will ultimately determine Bitcoin’s price direction. 

The critic warned that when capital eventually flows out of BTC, the price will be driven significantly lower. His comments reflect a prolonged skepticism over Bitcoin’s long-term outlook and its status as “digital gold” or a store of value. 

While Saylor remains a strong advocate for BTC, consistently accumulating the cryptocurrency through Strategy, Schiff continues to criticize the asset, often comparing it to gold. In one of his latest posts, the economist noted that Bitcoin recently climbed above $70,000 but was immediately hit with a wave of selling pressure, leading to a major pullback. He emphasized that, at present, BTC’s upside potential appears limited while its downside risk remains significant—an outlook he believes is the direct opposite of gold.

More XRP Holders Fall Into Loss Territory

After a sharp decline in its price, the market dynamics of XRP are starting to experience a critical change as investors’ pain steadily increases. This trend is being reflected in the amount of XRP at a loss in the market. BankXRP, a researcher and investor, has reported that a growing portion of the leading altcoin is slipping into the loss zone as price momentum continues to fade. This development indicates that many holders are now underwater, which points to mounting pressure across the market.

In the post shared on X, the expert highlighted that over 60% of the entire supply, which represents about 36.8 billion XRP, is now in loss territory. The figure is valued at more than $50 billion in unrealized losses.

When a massive portion of supply is sitting in losses, this shift often suggests that confidence is fading. This is because a persistent period of stagnation or decline reduces profitability for recent buyers. This development is likely to play a key role in shaping the next direction of the price in the short term.

For those who bought the altcoin at a price higher than its current value of $1.35, their breakeven point is positioned at the $1.44 level. Whether the price drops below the current price or pushes beyond the breakeven point is up to this trend. 

Addressing potential future outcomes, the expert stated that selling pressure could emerge close to the $1.44 level as holders exit at the breakeven point in the near term. Meanwhile, for the long term, XRP might clear the bull run, resulting in less resistance and a classic cycle.

A Fading Liquidity On Crypto Exchanges

During the weakening price momentum, XRP liquidity on cryptocurrency exchanges is starting to flip negative, marked by thinning order books. As shared by Arthur, the CIO of Royal Peak Cap, the declining liquidity is particularly evident on Binance, the world’s largest trading platform, which has completely collapsed. 

On the 30-day liquidity index, there has been a drop to historically low levels near zero (0). This positioning is a result of the declining trading volume from over $200 billion in January 2025 to almost nothing today, which can simply amplify uncertainty among traders. 

Such a reading is capable of creating a classic double-edged situation. A bullish view would mean that long-term holders are not selling, and supply on the exchange is extremely thin. Thus, any real buying pressure would probably trigger sharp upward moves. 

A cautious view would be shaped by traders’ fading interest, with the market in a wait-and-see mode. Historically, periods of extremely low liquidity have usually led to major price moves in both directions.

The Dogecoin Price Could Soon See Gains

In an X post, KrissPax stated that the Dogecoin price has been tightening within a symmetrical triangle for two months, with strong support at $0.09. He added that with crypto market sentiment and trading volume both low, he could see big gains, though he warned they could quickly reverse. On the other hand, he said that any quick drops will get bought up. 

His accompanying chart showed that the Dogecoin price could target the $0.10 level in the short term. Crypto analyst CW also indicated that DOGE could soon see a bullish move. In an X post, he said that DOGE is approaching the end of its descending channel and that a breakout would signal a trend reversal. He added that market participants will be able to see the start of an uptrend for the leading meme coin this week. 

Meanwhile, crypto analyst The Composite Trader stated that a big move is coming for the Dogecoin price, although he suggested that the move could end up being to the downside. He noted that price has been compressing for 60 days straight, building higher lows and creating sellside liquidity, while also building lower highs and creating buyside liquidity. 

The analyst mentioned that, from a higher-timeframe perspective, the first move will most likely be a fake move, but ideally, he will look to profit from that first higher-timeframe move. He added that he is closely monitoring the lower timeframes to find an entry to derisk and leave run for HTF targets.

The Bear Market May Soon Be Over For DOGE

Crypto analyst Kevin Capital has suggested that the bear market may soon be over for the Dogecoin price. In an X post, he stated that the market is very likely in the latter half of the crypto bear market, possibly even slightly further along. He explained that nearly every momentum, money flow, and strength indicator, along with on-chain data, supports this view. 

As such, the analyst advised that it may be time to shift one’s mindset from a cautious doomer to an opportunity hunter, especially for those who have been sitting on a lot of cash since last year. It is worth noting that DOGE could also see a rebound soon amid reports of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. 

At the time of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at around $0.09061, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The $1.9 trillion Wall Street firm’s entry would arrive more than two years after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first Bitcoin ETF back in January 2024.

Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF Push 

The new fund, expected to trade under the ticker “MSBT” on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), carries an annual fee of 14 basis points. That price undercuts the current market leader, BlackRock’s IBIT, by 11 basis points — a sizable discount that Bloomberg expert Eric Balchunas called “semi‑shock.” 

By Balchunas’s account, Morgan Stanley’s lower fee makes the product more palatable for the firm’s advisors and increases its chances of attracting outside assets. 

Compared with many mainstream equity-index ETFs, which typically charge between 3 and 10 basis points, the bank’s fee positions its Bitcoin exposure closer to a commodity‑like pricing structure, the expert noted.

Roy Kashi, CEO of FalconEdge, suggested the move is intended to “blow the competition out of the water,” adding that Morgan Stanley’s low fee both legitimizes Bitcoin ETFs further and demonstrates the bank’s appetite to capture market share. 

ETF Launch Anticipated To Spur Fee Competition

Experts such as Balchunas expect the NYSE Arca listing notice to make the fund effective on April 8, at which point trading could begin. The expert has previously indicated that projections for first‑year assets under management will surface after the listing and further analysis. 

However, if Morgan Stanley’s MSBT attracts significant inflows, it is anticipated that fee competition among issuers may increase, forcing other issuers to adjust their pricing, distribution, or product features.

The timing of Morgan Stanley’s drive also aligns with a changing regulatory and legislative landscape. Several major financial organizations have accelerated plans for direct Bitcoin exposure and infrastructure as a result of the Trump administration’s renewed stance toward clearer frameworks for digital assets.

As such, major financial firms, including Charles Schwab, have announced plans to expand their Bitcoin capabilities. This signals a growing interest among wealth managers, broker-dealers, and hedge funds, as noted in a social media post by Phong Le, CEO of Strategy.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Solana Attempts To Rebuild The Trust

This Monday, the Solana Foundation announced on a blog post the launching, in collaboration with Asymmetric Research, of the STRIDE (Solana Trust, Resilience and Infrastructure for DeFi Enterprises) program. STRIDE is an organized framework designed to continuously assess and oversee the security of projects built on the ecosystem.

According to Assymetric Research’s own blog post, STRIDE works as an eight‑pillar security framework that will carry out independent reviews of ecosystem protocols to verify they comply with it. The results of these assessments will be released publicly, giving users and investors clear visibility into the safety of the platforms they use.

In parallel to STRIDE, the foundation also released the Solana Incident Response Network (SIRN), a member‑driven coalition of security companies and researchers focused exclusively on the Solana ecosystem. According to the blog post, founding participants of the membership-based network include Asymmetric Research, OtterSec, Neodyme, Squads, and ZeroShadow. SIRN is the “war room”, sharing threat intel and coordinating live hack responses across the ecosystem.

The new initiatives sit on top of existing tools like Hypernative, Range, Riverguard, Sec3, and AuditWare, which are offered free to builders to harden code from day one. This is a core shift away from one‑off audits toward continuous, foundation‑funded monitoring, public security reports and coordinated incident response.

These moves directly follow the April 1st $286 million attack on the Solana-based Drift Protocol that ended up being attributed to North Korean hackers.

The blog post, however, makes no mention of the attack. Despite that, it does spell out the need to strengthen the security services the foundation offers.

Solana was built for security. And as the ecosystem scales, the stakes scale with it (…) Solana Foundation has a long history of dedicating resources to ensure that security services and tools are available to the ecosystem.

While it is true that security headlines and follow‑through on STRIDE/SIRN may help repair sentiment after the Drift shock, any new exploit on an unevaluated protocol could be punished harder.

Cover image from Perplexity. SOLUSD chart from Tradingview.

The Long-Term Channel Behind The $300,757 Bitcoin Target

According to a recent analysis shared on X by @CoinvoTrading, Bitcoin’s current position inside its long-term channel implies that a move toward the midline alone could send the asset into the $300,000 range, provided the long-term structure remains intact.

The model referenced by the analyst is built around a broad ascending channel that tracks Bitcoin’s historical price action across multiple market cycles. The lower boundary of this structure represents long-term support, while the upper boundary reflects the outer limit of previous bull market expansions.

Between these two boundaries sits a central resistance line that functions as the most critical level in the framework. Historically, Bitcoin’s behavior around this midpoint has helped define the nature of each market phase.

When Bitcoin moves upward but fails to break above the middle resistance, the market tends to remain in a steady uptrend. However, when the asset decisively pushes through this midpoint, previous cycles have seen the market push into a bull run.

The chart accompanying the commentary places the midpoint of this channel at approximately $300,757. A projected timeline marker near that level indicates April 23, 2028, as a potential period where price could align with that resistance if the current trajectory continues.

At the same time, the broader channel outlines the wider range of possibilities within the structure. The lower boundary of the trend channel sits near $106,712, while the upper extreme extends toward roughly $973,197. These figures illustrate the scale of the long-term corridor within which Bitcoin has historically fluctuated.

Why $300,000 Could Arrive Without A Full Bull Market

The central point of the analyst’s argument is that reaching the midpoint of the channel does not require the type of rapid, euphoric price expansion seen in previous bull cycles. Instead, the chart suggests that a consistent upward trend could gradually guide Bitcoin to $300,757. In this scenario, the market would simply continue respecting the structure of the long-term channel without entering a parabolic phase.

Past market behavior forms the basis of this claim. Earlier cycles displayed similar patterns where Bitcoin climbed along the lower portion of the channel before eventually approaching the midpoint during extended uptrends.

Within this context, the $300,757 level represents a structural milestone. Only a decisive move above that midline would historically signal the transition into a more aggressive bull market phase. Until such a breakout occurs, the analyst’s model frames the $300,000 region as a potential destination driven by steady long-term momentum.

A CryptoQuant analysis tracking whale activity on Binance has identified a behavioral shift that sits directly beneath the current price weakness. Daily whale inflows to Binance have fallen to approximately 12.60 million XRP — a fraction of the hundreds of millions that characterized the most active distribution periods earlier in the cycle. The 30-day cumulative flow indicator has dropped to approximately 1.44 billion XRP, one of its lowest readings since the start of 2026.

The significance is structural. Whale inflows to exchanges are the market’s primary mechanism for large-scale distribution — coins arriving at venues where they can be immediately sold into available liquidity. When those inflows collapse to multi-year lows, the pipeline of large-holder selling that has been weighing on XRP’s price has narrowed considerably.

XRP below $1.35 looks like a market under pressure. The whale data describes something more specific: a market where the heaviest sellers have reduced their activity to near-silence — and the price has not yet responded to their absence.

The Selling Infrastructure Has Pulled Back

The report’s behavioral interpretation of the whale inflow decline is where the data becomes most consequential. When large holders move XRP to Binance, the intent is rarely ambiguous — exchanges are selling venues, not storage facilities.

High whale inflows historically precede selling pressure because they represent large holders positioning their coins where they can act on them immediately. The reverse is equally readable: when whale inflows fall to multi-year lows, it reflects a deliberate decision by large participants to keep their XRP off the exchange and away from the immediate sell side.

The March comparison gives the current reading its full weight. At the peak of whale activity, the 30-day cumulative flow reached approximately 2.6 billion XRP — a level that represented sustained, large-scale movement of holdings toward Binance. Since then, the gradual retreat has been consistent and directional, bringing the cumulative figure down to approximately 1.44 billion — a reduction of nearly half in the primary distribution metric.

What has been removed from the market is not trivial. The infrastructure for large-scale selling — the pipeline of coins moving toward the exchange sell side — has contracted significantly since March. That contraction does not guarantee price recovery. It removes one of the most consistent structural arguments against it.

The heaviest sellers have stepped back. The price has not yet noticed.

XRP Tests Structural Support as Weekly Momentum Breaks Down

XRP is trading near $1.30 on the weekly timeframe, and the structure is clearly transitioning from expansion to correction. The rejection from the $3.00–$3.50 region established a decisive lower high, breaking the prior bullish sequence and shifting momentum to the downside.

Since that peak, the price has moved steadily lower, losing the 50-week moving average and now testing the 100-week average as support. The 200-week moving average remains below, near the $1.00 region, and represents the next major structural level if current support fails.

What stands out is the speed and cleanliness of the decline. The breakdown from above $2.00 occurred with strong directional movement, followed by only weak and short-lived bounces. This suggests that demand has not returned with enough strength to absorb selling pressure at higher levels.

Volume confirms this imbalance. Selling phases have been accompanied by higher participation, while recoveries show declining interest. That asymmetry typically reflects distribution rather than accumulation.

The key level is the current $1.25–$1.30 zone. A sustained break below it would likely accelerate downside toward the 200-week average. On the upside, reclaiming $1.80 is necessary to stabilize the structure, but a true trend shift would require a move back above $2.20.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto-Safe Harbor Confirmed

SEC Chair Paul Atkins confirmed the “safe harbor” proposal he introduced last month has made its way to the White House for review. The proposal is now in the hands of the OIRA, a unit inside the Office of Management and Budget that vets federal rules before they are officially released.

Atkins claimed this at the “Digital assets and Emerging Tech Policy Summit” hosted by Vanderbilt University and the Blockchain Association on Monday.

The SEC’s token framework carves crypto into buckets (digital commodities, collectibles, tools, stablecoins, digital securities), with most tokens falling outside securities rules unless specific fundraising structures trigger investment‑contract status.

The safe harbor gives projects a fixed runway (multi‑year grace period) to build and decentralize before full securities compliance bites, as long as they meet disclosure and anti‑fraud conditions.

Atkins also said at the summit the SEC is “close to” publishing a dedicated “reg crypto” (a cryptocurrencies regulation) rule focused on fundraising and startup exemptions under the Securities Act of 1933. Additionally, the SEC also preparing an “innovation exemption” which has support in crypto circles but is drawing pushback from parts of TradFi that worry about investor protection and market surveillance

SEC CHAIR ATKINS: WE WILL PROPOSE ‘REG CRYPTO’ FOR TOKEN FUNDRAISING SOON UNDER ‘33 ACT, WILL BE OPEN FOR COMMENT

ATKINS: WILL SOON HAVE “INNOVATION EXEMPTION” FOR USE OF DEFI UNDER ‘34 ACT

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) April 6, 2026

The new rulemaking will be aimed at handling fundraising questions under the 1933 Act, including a dedicated “fundraising exemption” that could let entrepreneurs raise up to a defined cap (around $75 million) in any 12‑month period while still using other exemptions.

This aims to clarify when token sales are securities offerings and when they are not, so issuers are not guessing around the edges of Regulation D and S forever. These are two different SEC exemptions that let companies sell securities without doing a full public registration, but they target different investors. Regulation D is for private offerings, mainly to U.S. accredited investors. Regulation S is for offerings made entirely outside the U.S., so issuers can sell to non‑U.S. investors without registering in the U.S., as long as they follow specific conditions.

Atkins is openly inviting industry feedback, which means the first version of these rules is not the final word.

This is the first time the SEC is packaging a token safe harbor, a bespoke “reg crypto” and an innovation exemption into a coherent regime instead of case‑by‑case enforcement.

Let’s not forget that joint guidance issued by the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently has already said most crypto assets are not securities.

Atkins also urged the crypto community to show up for the upcoming elections. According to him, the future of crypto regulation depends on voter turnout.

JUST IN: SEC Chair Paul Atkins urges the crypto community to show up for the upcoming elections; stressing the future of crypto regulation depends on voter turnout. With a “friendly congress”, we must act now pic.twitter.com/JF4agj6R2A

— ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) April 6, 2026

Atkins declarations add to the “end of regulation by enforcement” narrative. The safe harbor and “reg crypto” moving to the White House is the moment where that rhetoric turns into a rulemaking process that will outlast individual chairs, unless Congress rips it up.

All these moves are designed to bridge the gap while Congress works on broader market‑structure legislation like the CLARITY Act.

If the rules land roughly as proposed, it’s safe to expect a medium‑term tailwind for on‑chain liquidity, token issuance, and “US‑listed” narratives. But the market will also have to price in stricter disclosure and cut‑and‑dry treatment of actual digital securities.

Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSD chart from Tradingview.

Pal Reveals When Bitcoin Could Hit A Peak

Lately, the crypto market has been in a fierce downturn, with Bitcoin showing renewed signs of weakness after its price slipped slightly below $69,000 again. Although many analysts believe Bitcoin is currently in a cyclical bear market, recent commentary from Pal suggests the cryptocurrency’s bull cycle may still be in play. 

Notably, market analyst Crypto Tice shared a video of Pal on X, where the Real Vision CEO explained why he believes Bitcoin could still climb to a new all-time high during this cycle. Pal emphasized that the Bitcoin top is not yet in, projecting that the flagship cryptocurrency could hit its ultimate cycle peak in the second quarter of 2026. 

Earlier, in October 2025, Bitcoin surged to a peak above $126,000, driven by many bullish factors, including strong demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs and heightened market enthusiasm. However, since reaching that milestone, the cryptocurrency has trended downward, as heavy liquidations, market manipulation, and selling pressure crushed expectations of higher highs.  

According to Pal, BTC could still stage another rally to a new peak because the cryptocurrency’s current bull cycle has been extended to a five-year supercycle. Unlike the four-year cycle theory, which holds that a bear phase typically resets the market and lays the foundation for a new bull cycle, Pal’s argument suggests that BTC’s true bear market may not have begun yet. This leaves room for the cryptocurrency to resume its previous uptrend and target new all-time highs. 

To support his thesis, Pal pointed to Bitcoin’s price behavior, noting that it appears to be tracking the global business cycle. He explained that this cycle has been prolonged due to reduced liquidity across the financial system. Because of this extension, the Real Vision CEO maintains that BTC’s bull market is not yet over. 

BTC Price Projected To Reach $140,000

In a recent post on X, market expert Merlijn The Trader referenced a video featuring Pal, in which the Real Vision CEO explained that Bitcoin is currently trading at a discount due to tight liquidity conditions across the market. Based on this outlook, Pal forecasted that BTC could climb to at least $140,000, establishing a new peak. 

At the time of writing, BTC is trading above $68,500, meaning a surge to this bull target would represent a more than 100% increase. Moreover, when measured against its current October ATH, such an advance would reflect a gain of over 10%.   

Mow Calls Out The Rush

Samson Mow, founder of Bitcoin firm Jan3, went public over the weekend with a pointed warning: moving too fast on quantum security could leave Bitcoin more exposed, not less.

His comments came after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and the company’s chief security officer, Philip Martin, called on the industry to start acting now against quantum computing threats.

Mow pushed back hard. A rushed transition to post-quantum cryptography, he said, risks opening up fresh vulnerabilities — including compatibility breakdowns and a sharp drop in how many transactions the network can handle at once.

“Simply put: make Bitcoin safe against quantum computers just to get pwned by normal computers,” Mow wrote on X.

It’s been almost 10 years since the Blocksize Wars ended and Brian hasn’t changed at all.

He still carries the exact same complete lack of humility and understanding. Brian forms the opinion first, along with a prescribed course of action and timeframe, instead of starting by… https://t.co/Ti7QV63e7P

— Samson Mow (@Excellion) April 4, 2026

A Ghost From Bitcoin’s Past

At the center of his concern is block size — the cap on how much transaction data fits inside a single Bitcoin block. Larger post-quantum signatures mean more data per transaction, which means fewer transactions per block, which means a slower and more congested network.

Former Bitcoin developer Jonas Schnelli put numbers to it, and Mow cited them directly. The implications go beyond speed. Block size has been a flashpoint before.

Between 2015 and 2017, a bitter community dispute over whether to expand Bitcoin’s block size tore the ecosystem apart and ultimately led to a chain split.

That fight raised deep questions about decentralization, network security, and who really gets to decide Bitcoin’s direction. Mow is warning the same battle could be coming back — what he’s calling “Blocksize Wars 2.0.”

Mow isn’t saying quantum threats should be ignored. His argument is about timing, not priority. Research on potential solutions is already underway, he said, and that work should continue.

But quantum computers capable of cracking Bitcoin’s encryption, he argued, are still a decade or two away at minimum. Rushing a fix for a threat that doesn’t yet exist, he said, creates real risks today in exchange for protection against something hypothetical tomorrow.

The debate is gaining urgency as new research from Google and the California Institute of Technology has stoked fresh concern about how quickly quantum computing may develop.

Armstrong and Martin flagged those findings as reason enough to move the timeline up. Mow’s position: the cure could be worse than the disease, at least for now.

Featured image from Trade Brains, chart from TradingView

April Could Be A Green Month For The Solana Price

The prediction algorithm on the CoinCodex website has gone bullish in favor of the Solana price as the market ushered in the new month. Instead of following the set trend over the last few months and continuing to decline, it seems the Solana price might be headed for some respite.

The algorithm takes into account various indicators for a digital asset and uses that to predict a likely outcome for the asset. For Solana, the verdict is that the cryptocurrency might end up seeing a double-digit rally that would put it above the $100 level again.

In total, it predicts that the Solana price will rise by 30% to reach $103.76 by the time the month is over. On the medium-term (3-month timeframe), the algorithm predicts that the Solana price will rise by 63% to reach $130. This would mean that the third quarter is expected to be bullish for the price.

April Is An Historically Bullish Month

Looking at historical performance, the month of April has turned out to be more bullish than not for the Solana price. In cases where the month has ended in the red, the gains from the green months have outpaced those dominated by losses.

According to data from the CryptoRank website, in the last five years, Solana has ended a total of three months of April in the green, with the lowest return of these being +23.2% and the highest at +60.8%. Meanwhile for the years that the month ended in the red, the highest losses has been -15.7% and the lowest at -3.25%.

This brings the overall average for the month well into the positive, with the website’s data showing an average return of +18.7& and a median return of +10.8%. However, the second quarter of the year remains a mixed bag with as many red closes as there are green closes. So, it remains to be seen how the Solana price will perform in Q2.

Stakeholders Optimistic About Latest Compromise

On Monday, Crypto In America shared that the stablecoin yield dispute, the key issue stalling the highly anticipated crypto market structure bill, also known as the CLARITY Act, “appears to be at an inflection point after a second round of meetings with Senate staffers late last week.”

At the end of the week, the crypto and banking industries reviewed the latest language on whether companies can offer rewards to stablecoin holders without triggering deposit flight. Two anonymous sources, one from each party, told Crypto in America that crypto industry participants read the text on Thursday, while banks briefed on it on Friday.

According to the report, neither source discussed details on the latest version of the stablecoin compromise, but “said they were hopeful a workable solution had been reached this time.”

The latest deal follows the crypto industry’s dissatisfaction with the late-March draft. It’s worth noting that the two parties have been disagreeing over the potential prohibition of yield and rewards on stablecoin balances, delaying the crypto bill for nearly three months.

Last month, the crypto and banking industries reviewed the revised version of the CLARITY Act, which reportedly prohibited platforms from offering yield, directly or indirectly, for holding a stablecoin, or in a manner that resembles a bank deposit.

This restriction would broadly apply to digital asset service providers, including exchanges and brokers, as well as their affiliates. The text allegedly aims to limit workarounds and prohibit any activity “economically or functionally equivalent” to interest, addressing concerns from the banking industry side.

The proposal reignited backlash from major crypto players, including Coinbase and Stripe. Coinbase told Senate offices it could not support the updated draft, as the company had “significant concerns” about the latest stablecoin yield language.

However, Coinbase’s CLO, Paul Grewal, sparked excitement about the legislation last Wednesday after suggesting that Senate negotiators were “very close” to reaching a deal on the language.

Stablecoin Yield Final Text Release For Late April?

As Congress is out on Easter break, the Monday report noted that it remains unclear whether the Senate Banking Committee will publish the latest draft ahead of the bill’s markup session, which is anticipated for late April.

As reported by Bitcoinist, the text on the stablecoin yield compromise was first expected to be released ahead of the break, but in a shift from late March guidance, it has been delayed to the latter half of the month.

A spokesperson for Senator Thom Tillis’s office affirmed that the final text on the compromise between industry stakeholders and the Senate Banking Committee would be delayed due to concerns that releasing the text ahead of a markup “could give opponents an opening to slow the bill’s progress.”

Now, “if the yield issue is indeed moving to the back burner, it means Banking Committee staff and members, once they return, have the next two weeks to close out, as best they can, remaining issues related to DeFi, tokenization, and token classification,” which have also seen silent progress over the past few months, Senator Tim Scott recently said.

Seven Years Of Cover, 40+ Platforms Breached

MetaMask developer and security researcher Taylor Monahan said Sunday that North Korean IT workers have been embedded inside more than 40 decentralized finance platforms, some of them household names in the crypto space.

Their infiltration goes back to what the industry calls “DeFi Summer” — roughly 2020, when decentralized finance exploded in popularity.

oh god uhhhh like sushi, thorchain, yam, pickle, harvest, reclaim, swing, paid, naos, shezmu, qrolli, saffron, sifu, napier, harmony, blueberry, stabble, onering, elemental, divvy, la token, impermax, kira, cook, fantom, ankr, gamerse, metaplay, spice, beanstalk, deltaprime,…

— Tay (@tayvano_) April 5, 2026

Monahan said the “seven years of blockchain development experience” these workers list on their resumes isn’t fabricated. They actually built the protocols.

The Lazarus Group — the name given to North Korea’s state-sponsored cyber operation — has pulled an estimated $7 billion from the crypto industry since 2017.

Reportedly:

In 2026 Lazarus made 18 attacks on protocols in 3 months

Stolen funds are funding “North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons”

It’s the most successful venture fund built on hacks

Here is the complete attack timeline https://t.co/GuNL4FTCqv pic.twitter.com/7YJzYrTEJj

— jussy (@jussy_world) April 5, 2026

That figure comes from analysts at creator network R3ACH. Major attacks attributed to the group include the $625 million Ronin Bridge breach in 2022, the $235 million WazirX hack in 2024, and the $1.4 billion Bybit theft in 2025.

Not All North Korean — Third-Party Proxies Now Involved

What sets the Drift case apart is who showed up in person. The protocol said that face-to-face meetings connected to the breach were not conducted by North Korean nationals.

Instead, reports indicate the group used third-party intermediaries — people with built-out fake identities, fabricated employment histories, and professional networks constructed to pass scrutiny.

Lazarus Group is the collective name for all DPRK state sponsored cyber actors.

The main issue is everyone groups them all together when the complexity of threats are different.

Threats via job postings, LinkedIn, email, Zoom, or interviews are basic and in no way… pic.twitter.com/NL8Jck5edN

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) April 5, 2026

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT pushed back on how the industry discusses these threats, saying not all attack types carry the same weight.

Recruitment-based schemes — job postings, LinkedIn outreach, Zoom interviews — are, in his words, basic. They require no technical sophistication. What makes them effective is sheer persistence.

“If you or your team still falls for them in 2026, you’re very likely negligent,” ZachXBT wrote.

For companies looking to screen out bad actors, the US Office of Foreign Assets Control maintains a public database where crypto businesses can check counterparties against updated sanctions lists and watch for patterns tied to IT worker fraud.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Strategy Has Added 4,871 Tokens To Its Bitcoin Treasury

In a new post on X, Strategy co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor has shared details related to the company’s latest Bitcoin acquisition. In total, the firm has added 4,871 BTC for $329.9 million or $67,718 per token with this purchase.

Strategy has had a consistent routine of announcing acquisitions on Monday, but the firm had a rare skip last week. Saylor’s post from Sunday foreshadowed the return to buying ways this week, as the chairman shared the company’s BTC portfolio tracker with the caption: “₿ack to Work.”

According to the filing with US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Strategy bought its latest tokens between April 1st and 5th. The firm funded the purchase using sales of its STRC and MSTR at-the-market (ATM) stock offerings.

In the past, Strategy has often shown a tendency to buy local price tops, with its tokens already dipping into losses by the time it reveals the purchase. This time around, however, the latest Bitcoin spot price is still trading above the buy’s cost basis, meaning that the tokens are in the green.

Though, the firm’s holdings as a whole have continued to be underwater recently. Following the new purchase, Strategy’s cost basis is sitting at $75,644, putting its Bitcoin reserves in a loss of about 8.1% at the current spot price. The company first fell underwater with the price crash at the start of February and with the market staying down since then amid uncertainty like the Iran war, BTC hasn’t been able to reclaim its break-even level.

A milestone that Strategy has cleared with the latest acquisition is that its total investment into the asset has broken past the $58 billion mark. With a total of 766,970 tokens in its wallets, Saylor’s firm occupies a network supply share of 3.83%, by far the highest among corporate treasury holders of Bitcoin.

Just like how Strategy regularly announces purchases on Monday, Ethereum’s largest treasury company, Bitmine, has made a habit of doing the same. This Monday has been no different, with Bitmine’s regular press release going up with information related to the firm’s latest ETH accumulation.

Over the past week, Bitmine added 71,252 ETH to its wallets, the largest weekly buying spree since December 2025. Thomas “Tom” Lee, the company’s chariman, said:

Bitmine has maintained the increased pace of ETH buys in each of the past four weeks, as our base case ETH is in the final stages of the ‘mini-crypto winter.’

The Ethereum treasury firm now holds a total of 4,803,334 ETH, equivalent to 3.98% of the cryptocurrency’s total supply in circulation.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $69,200, up 3.5% over the last 24 hours.

Arc Becomes A Testing Ground For Quantum Security

Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin, has unveiled a quantum-resistant security roadmap for Arc, its layer-1 blockchain currently running on public testnet.

The plan is phased. When Arc goes live on mainnet — expected sometime in 2026 — users will have access to quantum-proof wallets and signatures from day one.

That feature will be opt-in at first. Protections at the validator level and across offchain systems, including cloud environments, access controls, and hardware security, are set to follow in later stages.

JUST IN: CIRCLE ROLLS OUT FULL-STACK QUANTUM DEFENCE PLAN FOR ARC BLOCKCHAIN

Circle has announced a comprehensive quantum-resistance strategy for its Arc L1 blockchain, targeting wallets, validators, private state, and core infrastructure.

According to several reports,… pic.twitter.com/Hp2KimyUdz

— BSCN (@BSCNews) April 6, 2026

Circle was blunt about why it’s moving now. “Quantum resilience cannot live only in research papers, exploratory pilots, or distant roadmap slides,” the company said. “It has to show up in the infrastructure.”

Arc is being built to serve enterprise clients who want to use USDC across a wide range of financial applications. Quantum security, Circle says, has to be part of the foundation — not an afterthought bolted on later.

Exposed Public Keys Are The Immediate Risk

One detail Circle flagged is easy to miss but matters a lot. Wallets that have already signed transactions are more exposed than those that haven’t, because signing a transaction reveals the public key.

Quantum resilience can’t wait until the market forces it.

Arc’s post-quantum roadmap is designed to secure blockchain infrastructure in phases:

→ Post-quantum wallet signatures

→ Quantum-secure private state

→ Post-quantum-safe infrastructure

→ Validator hardening

This…

— Arc (@arc) April 3, 2026

Once that key is out, a powerful enough quantum machine could work backward to find the private key and drain the funds.

“Active addresses that have already signed transactions must migrate before Q-Day because their public keys have been exposed,” Circle said. Q-Day refers to the point when quantum computers become powerful enough to break current encryption standards.

Researchers at the California Institute of Technology recently suggested that functional quantum computers could be operational before 2030 — earlier than most previous estimates.

Google’s research, published March 31, indicated that cracking crypto-grade encryption may also require far less computing power than once assumed.

Circle is not alone in pushing for post-quantum solutions. According to Google’s research, Algorand ranks as the most quantum-ready blockchain right now.

The Ethereum and Solana ecosystems are also working toward solutions ahead of any potential threat.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

A CryptoQuant report has identified a market structure that defies simple characterization. Exchange netflows have turned positive for two consecutive days — shifting from -1,275 BTC to +682 BTC and then +428 BTC — meaning short-term sell-side supply is returning to exchanges after a period of net outflows. Simultaneously, open interest has climbed from $21.22 billion to $22.60 billion across three sessions, confirming that derivatives traders are rebuilding positions at scale.

Both of those developments would normally signal growing bullish conviction. The funding rate data refuses that interpretation. Funding has flipped from positive to negative and held there for two days — meaning the derivatives market is not overheated with aggressive longs but is instead reflecting cautious, two-sided positioning. Traders are opening positions without committing to a direction.

The market is not confused. It is hedged. That distinction matters because a hedged market does not move on sentiment alone — it moves when one side of the hedge is forced to cover. The data does not yet indicate which side breaks first.

Crypto Leverage Is Back

The report’s most consequential finding is the one that prevents a bullish reading of the open interest rebound. The 60-day USDT market cap change remains below zero — meaning that the stablecoin liquidity that fuels sustained price trends has not returned to the market in any meaningful quantity. Derivatives positioning is increasing. Spot demand is not confirming it. That divergence is the defining condition of the current environment.

The practical consequence is direct. When leverage rebuilds without liquidity support, price recoveries tend to be shallow and volatile rather than sustained and directional. The fuel for a trend continuation — fresh capital entering through stablecoins, new spot demand absorbing sell-side supply — is absent. What exists instead is a derivatives market rebuilding positions on top of a spot market that has not yet decided to participate.

The report translates this into a probability framework that deserves to be taken seriously rather than dismissed as false precision. Forty percent range-bound or neutral. Thirty-five percent short-term upside attempt. Twenty-five percent downside pressure. That distribution is not a forecast — it is a structured representation of what the four competing signals currently support.

The resolution conditions are equally specific. Upside confirmation requires exchange inflows to slow or reverse alongside a recovery in funding rates toward neutral. Downside risk escalates if inflows continue expanding while open interest rises and volatility increases. Neither condition has been met. The market is coiled between them — and this is not the moment to assume which way it uncoils.

Total Crypto Market Cap Stabilizes Between Key Averages

The total crypto market cap is showing early signs of stabilization, but the weekly structure still reflects a market that has lost momentum after a strong expansion phase. Price is currently holding near $2.3 trillion, sitting between the 100-week and 200-week moving averages — a zone that often acts as a transitional range rather than a clear trend environment.

The rejection from the $3.8–$4.0 trillion region marked a decisive lower high, breaking the prior bullish sequence. Since then, the market has retraced sharply, losing the 50-week moving average and briefly testing the 200-week average before bouncing. That reaction confirms the 200-week as structural support, at least for now.

However, the recovery lacks conviction. The crypto market has not been able to reclaim the 100-week moving average decisively, and the 50-week average is beginning to slope downward, signaling weakening trend strength. Volume patterns reinforce this interpretation — large spikes during sell-offs, followed by relatively muted participation on rebounds.

This creates a fragile equilibrium. If the market cap reclaims the $2.6–$2.8 trillion region, it would signal renewed strength and open the path toward previous highs. Failure to do so keeps the structure range-bound, with downside risk toward the $2.0 trillion level if the 200-week support fails to hold.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

BTC Whales And Retailers Activity Diverge

With ongoing volatility, Bitcoin has remained compressed within the $65,000 and $70,000 range, and investors are starting to demonstrate their reaction. A notable shift is unfolding in the structure of BTC as large holders or whales and retail holders are moving in a different direction.

According to CW, a crypto market expert and investor, retail holders have been leaving the market, possibly linked to the ongoing sideways price action of BTC. Meanwhile, whale investors are entering the market, allowing them to take full control of the market and capitalize on its future moves.

Following his analysis of the Bitcoin Whale Exchange Ratio, the expert highlighted that the key metric has surpassed 60%, which shows that the market is sitting comfortably in the hands of high-net-worth players. It is worth noting that this figure marks its highest level in the past 10 years.

This transition is changing market dynamics to a period where BTC’s price performance is becoming more influenced by the choices of a small group of players. When this divergence occurs, it is considered a key indicator in determining volatility, liquidity, and Bitcoin’s next major move.

CW stated that retail investors left the market swiftly after the Bitcoin price fell to the $60,000 level. This level holds historical and psychological importance in the BTC market. As seen in the chart, this point at which the exchange whale ratio reached its peak is the starting point of every bullish rally in the past decade.

Are Large Holders Positioning For A Bitcoin Rally?

Despite the bearish price action, large investors’ sentiment is becoming evidently strong and is currently expanding. In another post on the X platform, CW shared that BTC whales are steadily increasing their balances at a tremendous rate at current price levels.

When large investors accumulate at such a pace, it often points to robust conviction in the coin in spite of broader market uncertainty. In some cases, this powerful buying spree transitions into a period of sustained upward pressure, which raises the speculation of whether BTC could be set to surge again.

This ongoing accumulation is not just extremely fast, it is also unprecedented in the history of BTC. Whale investors are pushing the pace to its maximum, while BTC retail holders have exited the market as the asset continues to consolidate. These holders are unfazed by BTC’s current price trend as they scooped up massive amounts of BTC without experiencing any decrease.

According to crypto expert Adam Livingston, the market still is not fully valuing what that pace of accumulation could mean over time.

Q1 2026 Changed How The Market Reads Weakness

According to numbers from its Bitcoin purchases page, Strategy bought a total of 89,599 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, taking its total holdings to 762,099 BTC. This was the second-largest accumulation range period, and only the fourth quarter of 2024 was larger.

According to Livingston, if Strategy were to sustain Q1’s acquisition pace for three consecutive years, its holdings would reach 1.84 million Bitcoin by April 2029, equivalent to roughly 2.4 times its current holdings of 762,099 BTC. That projection, he notes, assumes no improvement in capital market conditions and no expansion in demand for STRC, Strategy’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock. It is, in other words, a floor estimate built on the worst-case scenario.

The chart that accompanied Livingston’s post shows Strategy bought 340,983 BTC in regimes above $90,000, compared with 161,326 BTC in sub-$50,000 regimes, a high-to-low accumulation ratio of 2.11x. 

The largest single band on the chart is the $90,000 to $110,000 range, where disclosed purchases totaled 297,102 BTC across 30 events, accounting for 39.0% of all buys. The $70,000 to $90,000 band comes next with 162,805 BTC, then the sub-$30,000 band with 99,030 BTC. 

These buying bands show something important: Strategy has not been most extreme in its buys when Bitcoin looked cheap. It has been at its most extreme when Bitcoin was already expensive and still rising.

Bitcoin Itself Is Still Undervalued

Livingston ties the Q1 accumulation story to a much larger Bitcoin thesis and how it relates to Strategy’s accumulations. Even if Strategy were to trade at a flat 1.0 multiple to net asset value, generating zero BTC yield premium, Livingston calculates the company’s 1x mNAV price at $288 per share by that point. The actual outcome, however, will be considerably higher because the model assumes a static Bitcoin price.

If Bitcoin simply reverts to its long-term power law trend, which places the leading cryptocurrency’s price at a target range near $360,000 by the end of 2028, then the entire crypto industry is badly underestimating both Strategy’s future balance sheet and the knock-on effect on Bitcoin’s own valuation.

A company that can accumulate nearly 90,000 BTC in a single difficult quarter and that is incentivized to buy harder as prices rise is a huge demand force. If such large-scale corporate accumulation continues even in weak quarters and even increases when prices recover, then the supply available to the broader market may keep reducing at a faster pace than many traders are modeling.

Top analyst Maartunn has highlighted a corporate treasury move that deserves more attention than a standard acquisition announcement typically receives: Metaplanet has purchased an additional 5,075 BTC, adding to a position that now places the company among the largest Bitcoin-holding publicly listed entities in the world. The transaction was not a one-time allocation. It is the latest step in a deliberate, escalating accumulation strategy that has been building for months.

The timing is not incidental. Bitcoin attempting to reclaim $70,000 while a major corporate holder continues to absorb supply at scale is not the same market as Bitcoin attempting $70,000 without that demand. Every BTC that enters Metaplanet’s treasury is a BTC that leaves the liquid float — unavailable for immediate sale, removed from the overhead supply that has been capping recoveries.

The price is trying to break higher. The corporate buyers are not waiting for it to succeed before they act. That sequence — institutional accumulation preceding price confirmation — is worth paying attention to.

Third in the World. And Still Buying

Maartunn’s data places Metaplanet’s current position in the corporate Bitcoin hierarchy with precision. At 40,177 BTC, the company now ranks third among publicly listed Bitcoin holders globally — behind only Strategy, whose 762,099 BTC position remains the dominant benchmark by an enormous margin, and Twenty One Capital, which holds 43,514 BTC and sits just ahead of Metaplanet in the rankings. The gap between the second and the third is narrow. The gap between first and everyone else is a different conversation entirely.

What makes the ranking less important than the trajectory is Metaplanet’s stated long-term target: 210,000 Bitcoin. That figure is not an aspirational range or a soft commitment. It represents approximately 1% of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist — a fixed, finite number that every purchase brings closer to being concentrated in a single corporate treasury.

To put that ambition in context: Metaplanet currently holds 40,177 BTC. Its target is 210,000. It has acquired roughly 19% of its goal. The remaining 81% represents a sustained, structural source of demand that does not respond to short-term price movements, does not pause during corrections, and does not reduce its target because the market is uncertain.

At $70,000, Bitcoin is trying to break higher. Metaplanet is trying to own 1% of it. Both things are happening simultaneously — and one of them is not waiting for the other to resolve first.

Bitcoin Presses $70K Resistance as Downtrend Structure Holds

Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $70,000 level, but the daily structure still reflects a market in recovery rather than trend continuation. Price is currently trading just below that threshold after bouncing from the February capitulation low near $60,000. That rebound established a short-term range between roughly $65,000 and $72,000, where the price has been compressing for several weeks.

The broader context remains bearish. Bitcoin is still trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, all of which are sloping downward and stacked above price. This alignment confirms that sellers continue to control the higher timeframe trend, and each rally into these averages has been rejected.

What has changed is volatility. The sharp sell-off in February was accompanied by a clear spike in volume, signaling forced liquidation and aggressive selling. Since then, volume has normalized, and price action has become more orderly. That typically marks a transition phase — not a reversal, but a pause where the market rebuilds positioning.

The key level remains $70,000. A clean break above it, followed by acceptance, would shift short-term momentum and open the path toward $75,000–$78,000. Failure to reclaim it keeps Bitcoin range-bound, with $65,000 acting as the lower boundary and a critical level to monitor for renewed downside pressure.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Futures Lead The Way In The Ethereum Market

As the week begins, Ethereum, the leading altcoin, is exhibiting a key development in its market dynamics. Even with broader market volatility, the derivatives activity of ETH is at the top of its game, snatching volumes at a notable rate.

Darkfost, an author at CryptoQuant and market expert, has outlined a strong divergence between BTC futures and the spot market. Looking at both markets, ETH futures volumes are running higher than those of spot markets. With traders primarily relying on leveraged positions rather than outright asset ownership, this imbalance suggests that the market is becoming more dominated by speculation.

The expert shared that the spot-to-futures volume ratio on Binance has recently dropped to the 0.13 level, marking the lowest annual level ever recorded for Ethereum. From a practical standpoint, this pattern implies that future volumes are 7 times larger than spot volumes. To put another way, almost $7 passes through futures contracts for every $1 traded on the spot market. 

This dynamic implies that Ethereum price changes are currently being driven by speculation. While this pattern remains difficult to interpret, it is generally not a good sign for markets. Excessive leverage can increase volatility through position changes or liquidation events and does not offer a solid structural foundation.

At the same time, current uncertainty, both geopolitical and economic, is powering a large share of investors to remain cautious. However, another key portion of this trend is that it does not appear to apply to the most speculative participants. 

The derivatives market on ETH remains highly active, with Open Interest gradually demonstrating signs of a rebound since reaching 5 million ETH. However, on-chain data shows that the open interest is now sitting at 6.4 million ETH, which is not far away from its previous all-time high of 7.8 million ETH, achieved in July 2025. 

Binance is at the forefront of this rising open interest, solely accounting for 2.3 million ETH, representing roughly 36% dominance in the ETH derivatives market. 

ETH Withdrawal From Crypto Exchanges Expands

Ethereum’s exchange outflows do not seem to slow down. According to Nexo, ETH on crypto exchanges has declined to its lowest level since 2016, and it’s not coming back quickly.

During this massive exchange withdrawal, staking queues were backed up for nearly 50 days, while the exit queue has almost finished. Next, it is noted that supply is locked in by design. At this point, the price is particularly vulnerable to any significant increase in demand when there is less ETH available on exchanges.

Bitcoin 666,666th Block Sparks Widespread Curiosity

While Bitcoin has captured global attention through its innovative technology and surging price, the cryptocurrency’s blockchain continues to reveal intriguing details that fuel speculation among users and analysts. On January 18, 2021, Bitcoin’s 666,666th block was successfully mined by BTC.com, a mining pool responsible for validating transactions and adding new blocks to the chain. 

The block’s number alone was enough to send corners of the internet into frenzy, with many pouting to the figure’s association with the biblical “number of the beast.”  However, even more intriguing, a short, clear message was permanently recorded within the block. It reads, “Do not be overcome by evil but overcome evil with good,” followed by a reference to the Bible verse Roman 12:21. 

In Christian tradition, the number 666 is widely regarded as the mark of the “Antichrist,” drawn from the Book of Revelations. The number’s repetition within the single block also appears to deepen the symbolism, catching the attention of many crypto community members. As for the embedded message, Romans 12:21 is widely interpreted as a call to resist evil and corruption while triumphing against darkness through virtue.  

Whatever the hidden meaning, the block’s message is circulating all over X and other social media. The text can still be viewed on-chain today through public explorers, where the record remains fixed as part of the block’s data. It was added through a Bitcoin feature called OP_Return, which allows users to attach small pieces of text directly onto the blockchain, making them permanent and unchangeable once confirmed. The block’s miner reportedly paid over five times the normal fees to add the message, with the transaction linked to wallets named “God” and “Bible.”

Origin Of BTC’s 666,666th Block

As news about the 666,666th block spreads, some crypto members have begun questioning the timing and source of the message. One user even speculated whether it might be linked to Bitcoin’s pseudonymous founder and creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Even more interestingly, the widespread attention and discussion came a day after Nakamoto’s birthday, April 5. 

However, reports indicate that the message was never part of Bitcoin’s original design and was not placed there by Nakamoto. The Bitcoin creator stepped away from the project in 2011, years before block 666,666 was ever mined. Additionally, the Romans 12:21 inscription was also added by an anonymous Bitcoin founder over a decade after Nakamoto’s disappearance. Since the text was an external addition, its placement has no direct connection to Bitcoin’s core history or its mysterious founder.

XRP Has Witnessed A Surge In Open Interest Recently

As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a Sunday X post, the XRP Open Interest witnessed a sharp surge. The “Open Interest” here refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of positions related to the cryptocurrency that are currently open on all centralized exchanges. The metric includes both short and long positions.

As the chart shared by Maartunn shows, the XRP Open Interest climbed to $943 million during the weekend.

The increase in the indicator naturally implies a jump in speculative activity among derivatives market traders tok place. Now, what kind of bets were traders opening? The answer to that can be inferred from the Funding Rate, which tracks the amount of periodic fees that derivatives contract holders are paying each other.

From the chart, it’s visible that the Funding Rate remained negative during the Open Interest surge, suggesting short investors were paying a premium to the long ones. In other words, the new positions that appeared leaned in the bearish direction.

Generally, a sharp rise in the Open Interest can lead into market volatility, as the risk of mass liquidations occurring can go up. The side that’s more likely to be caught up in such a squeeze tends to be the one that’s more dominant. Since the new Open Interest increase came alongside a red Funding Rate, a short squeeze became more probable to happen.

XRP has observed a bounce over the past day, so it’s possible that short liquidations had a role in it. As the analyst has highlighted in a new post, however, the Open Interest has still remained at high levels even after the rebound.

Currently, the XRP Open Interest is sitting at $952 million, higher than it was on Sunday. Thus, it would appear that a further influx of speculative activity has occurred in the market. “Open Interest didn’t fully reset, and price is now tapping resistance,” noted Maartunn. “Not the kind of structure I want to overstay.”

XRP isn’t alone in finding a rebound in the past day; the rest of the cryptocurrency sector has also surged. Bitcoin, for example, has gone up by more than 4% over the last 24 hours.

Like with XRP, the rally has been accompanied by a spike in the Open Interest, a potential sign that leverage is driving the market right now. “These rallies are usually fragile. Around 75% tend to return to their origin,” explained the analyst.

XRP Price

At the time of writing, XRP is floating around $1.35, unchanged from one week ago.

Oil Market Pressure Builds

US President Donald Trump added to the tension with a new warning for Iran. In a post on Truth Social, he said Iran would be “living in Hell” if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, and he set a fresh deadline, saying the country now has until Tuesday or face attacks on its power plants and bridges.

The message did not stop there. Trump also told Fox News that Iran was negotiating and said there was a “good chance” of a deal within 24 hours. Axios later reported that the US, Iran and regional mediators were discussing a 45-day ceasefire that could end the war.

Market Jump Follows The Headlines

Crypto moved quickly on the mixed signals. Total market value rose about $70 billion, or 2.5%, to $2.38 trillion in early Monday trading, reaching an 11-day high. Bitcoin touched $69,870 on Coinbase, according to TradingView data cited in the report.

The move also hit traders who had bet against the market. CoinGlass data showed roughly $255 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with 73% coming from short positions. That points to a fast squeeze, not a slow build driven by steady buying.

The wider backdrop is still the war itself. The conflict has lasted more than a month, and the strain on energy supply has helped push oil higher. Based on reports in the piece, Americans have been paying an extra $240 million a day for fuel since the war began on Feb. 28.

That oil pressure is the part markets are watching most closely. The Kobeissi Letter, as cited in the report, said inflation tied to the US Consumer Price Index could rise to about 3.7% if current oil levels hold for another seven weeks.

For now, crypto is moving on headlines that can flip in hours. Trump’s latest remarks carried both a threat and a door left open for a deal, leaving traders to sort through a market that is reacting to war, energy prices and shifting US signals all at once.

Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView

Why Litecoin Is Not ‘Dead’ And Is About To See A Parabolic Rally

In an X post, Shah stated that bears who think Litecoin is “dead money” are about to be the fuel for the most violent face-melt of 2026. The analyst pointed to the macro reality, noting that LTC is currently sitting in a 1,400-day accumulation zone. He added that this is 1,440 days of sideways grind, with the altcoin absorbing every weak hand and building a very solid base. 

Shah then alluded to history, noting that XRP had a similar price action before its 2017 explosion of over 40,000%. The same happened for Cardano before it rallied from cents to dollars. The Solana price also showed a similar pattern when it traded at $10, just before its “legendary” run to $260. 

Now, Litecoin is printing the same “Spring” signature, with Shah stating that the 1-week chart is a “coiled snake.” He declared that a structural re-pricing that will leave the sidelined bears in total disbelief will happen when the 1,400-day range finally breaks. He suggested that the bulls can expect a parabolic rally rather than just a bounce. 

The analyst noted that the longer the base, the higher the space. He further remarked that while retail investors are chasing new coins, smart money is accumulating Litecoin, which is the “OG silver to Bitcoin’s gold.” Shah also affirmed that the “vertical expansion is a mathematical certainty at this point.” As to how LTC could rally, he predicted that the first stop could be a surge to $400, representing an 8x from current price levels. 

The Silver Narrative For LTC

In another X post, Shah doubled down on the silver narrative for Litecoin, pointing to the LTC/BTC ratio. He noted that LTC is currently trading at 0.00079 BTC, a level that has historically triggered “mean reversion” pumps. He added that the 1,400-day accumulation is not just a range but a total supply absorption, with strong hands taking coins from the “impatient.”

Shah also pointed to the positive divergence on the LTC/BTC chart, noting that the higher-timeframe RSI is signaling a reversal. He affirmed that the momentum is actually building higher lows, with the spring coiled to the limit. The analyst added that once Litecoin breaks the 0.0012 BTC resistance, there is no overhead supply until 0.006 BTC. 

At the time of writing, the Litecoin price is trading at around $54, up almost 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

A Quick Expansion, A Quicker Response

When the crypto exchange added the Rwandan franc to its peer-to-peer trading platform last Friday, it took the National Bank of Rwanda just two days to respond.

The central bank posted a firm warning on X on Sunday, telling the public that using the local currency to buy or sell crypto remains against the law.

“Crypto-assets are NOT authorized for payments, FRW conversion, or P2P trading involving FRW under the current framework,” the bank wrote.

Officials urged citizens to stay away from crypto, citing serious financial risks and no legal protection if money is lost.

Please be reminded that the Rwandan Franc (FRW) is the only legal tender in #Rwanda.

Crypto-assets are NOT authorized for payments, FRW conversion, or P2P trading involving FRW under the current framework.

The public is urged to avoid such transactions due to serious financial… https://t.co/elY0cht67h

— Central Bank of Rwanda (@CentralBankRw) April 5, 2026

Bybit had announced the addition on X, saying users could now use the Rwandan franc through its P2P service to trade for crypto. No statement has been issued by the exchange in response to the central bank’s warning.

RWF is now live on Bybit P2P Buy and sell crypto using Rwanda Franc, unlock exclusive rewards as a new user, and start earning as a merchant with bi-weekly commissions. Trade more, earn more!

— Bybit (@Bybit_Official) April 3, 2026

Central Bank Draws A Hard Line On The Franc

The National Bank of Rwanda made its position plain in a second post on the same day. The franc, officials said, remains the country’s only legal currency. Licensed financial institutions in Rwanda are barred from converting the franc into crypto or the other way around.

That prohibition has been in place since 2018, when Rwanda first began restricting crypto activity — part of a broader effort to protect its financial system and keep control over how money moves inside its borders.

Rwanda is also building its own state-backed digital currency. The e-franc rwandais is currently in a proof-of-concept phase and could move into a pilot program. That project appears to be one reason authorities are drawing a sharp line between state-controlled digital money and private crypto platforms.

The picture is not entirely closed for crypto operators in Rwanda. In March, the country’s Capital Market Authority released a draft bill that would create a legal path for virtual asset service providers to apply for licenses and operate under official supervision. The bill is still working its way through the legislature.

Under the proposed rules, crypto could not be used as legal tender. Mining operations and mixer services would be banned. So would any token tied to the Rwandan franc. But companies that meet the licensing requirements could, for the first time, legally offer services in the country.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

A Long-Standing Crypto-Infiltration Saga

News and reports from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea tend to have a particular conspiracy theory-action movie feel to them. However, they also have the tendency to be true and not over exaggerated at all.

This time, security researcher and MetaMask developer Taylor Monahan said on a Sunday post on the social network X that these methods date back to DeFi’s formative years, with actors linked to the DPRK quietly contributing to several major, widely used protocols.

Yuppppppp

Lots of DPRK IT Workers built the protocols you know and love, all the way back to defi summer

The “7 years blockchain dev experience” on their resume is not a lie. https://t.co/EQNgl5KhJ5

— Tay (@tayvano_) April 5, 2026

She claims that North Korean IT workers have quietly worked inside more than 40 DeFi projects over roughly seven years, including protocols that became household names after DeFi summer.

oh god uhhhh like sushi, thorchain, yam, pickle, harvest, reclaim, swing, paid, naos, shezmu, qrolli, saffron, sifu, napier, harmony, blueberry, stabble, onering, elemental, divvy, la token, impermax, kira, cook, fantom, ankr, gamerse, metaplay, spice, beanstalk, deltaprime,…

— Tay (@tayvano_) April 5, 2026

These workers often have “real” on‑chain experience (seven years of blockchain dev) but operate under stolen or synthetic identities, plugging into teams via normal hiring funnels

Her posts reply to tim, a pseudonymous builder and public face of Titan, a Solana‑based DEX aggregator and routing project, claiming that for a previous job they interviewed an extremely qualified candidate that turned out to be a Lazarus operative, the North-Korea affiliated group that has funneled billions of dollars in stolen money through cryptocurrency networks.

at a previous job, we interviewed someone who turned out to be a Lazarus operative. he did video calls and was extremely qualified

we invited him for in person interviews and he ultimately declined to fly out, so we passed

only later did we find his name in a Lazarus info dump… https://t.co/Vnvffrkjee

— tim | Titan (@timahhl) April 5, 2026

Renowned crypto detective ZachXBT also replied to tim’s post, explaining that this is not just “Lazarus” but a network of DPRK units (Lazarus, APT38, AppleJeus, etc.) coordinated by the Reconnaissance General Bureau and optimized for financial cybercrime. Their methods are based on “basic, relentless” outreach via LinkedIn, job boards, interviews, Zoom, plus remote dev roles that teams still grant far too easily.

Lazarus Group is the collective name for all DPRK state sponsored cyber actors.

The main issue is everyone groups them all together when the complexity of threats are different.

Threats via job postings, LinkedIn, email, Zoom, or interviews are basic and in no way… pic.twitter.com/NL8Jck5edN

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) April 5, 2026

Recent U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions and Chainalysis findings signal that DPRK IT networks generated $800 million in 2024 alone and have moved billions in stolen crypto since 2017, feeding weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missile programs.

The April 1st $285 million attack on Drift Protocol reignited fears about insider threats from North Korea, especially after the protocol itself confirmed on Saturday that speculation linking the attack to North Korean hacking groups was right.

https://t.co/qYBMCup9i6

— Drift (@DriftProtocol) April 5, 2026

They attributed the attack “with medium confidence” to UNC4736, a North Korea–aligned, state‑sponsored hacking group.

The protocol claimed the attackers relied on a well elaborated social engineering strategy: fake professional personas, in‑person conference interactions, and booby‑trapped developer tooling to compromise contributors before finally executing the exploit. The attackers posed as a legitimate trading firm, met Drift contributors in person across several countries and used fully constructed identities with work histories and professional networks before triggering the exploit

The attackers weaponized common developer tooling by slipping malicious tasks into VS Code and Cursor configurations, delivering a compromised repository that contributors ran locally without realizing it. All these combined make the incident far more like an insider‑style supply‑chain compromise than a straightforward smart contract.

The day after the attack, Ledger CTO Charles Guillement linked the attack method to Bybit’s $1.4 billion hack, which was attributed to the regime’s cyber units. Then, on Friday, blockchain analytics firm Elliptic released an investigation claiming the on‑chain behavior, laundering methods, and network‑level indicators match the techniques seen in prior DPRK‑linked operations. Bitcoinist covered the story.

This saga crypto-hacking has turned into structural national‑security risk. Regulators and sanctions bodies are already tightening around DPRK IT networks, and more aggressive enforcement is likely to follow.

Large, state‑linked exploits create latent protocol risk: higher insurance premia, potential delistings, governance infighting over restitution, and longer risk‑off periods for DeFi tokens and perp volumes.

Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview.

A Tighter Time-Regime For Crypto Exchanges

All Korean crypto exchanges must have a new asset-matching system by the end of May if they don’t want compliance problems, the financial regulator said this Monday. According to The Korea Times, exchanges must now switch from the 24‑hour reconciliation cycles that most major exchanges currently have to a uniform 5‑minute asset‑matching regime.

A time asset‑matching system is a software that constantly compares what an exchange says customers own on its internal ledger with the actual coins and cash it holds in wallets and bank accounts. In real‑time asset tracking, every few minutes the system reconciles user balances, order‑book positions, and margin with on‑chain and off‑chain reserves. If there is a mismatch beyond a set threshold, it can automatically trigger alerts or even a kill‑switch to halt deposits, withdrawals, or trading.

Regulators found that the existing kill switches of some of the major exchanges were also unreliable during large mismatches. This is why the FSC is also requiring that exchanges report their asset‑matching results on a daily basis, with additional independent reviews by accounting firms carried out every month.

This is the most aggressive tightening of operational rules since Korea’s first wave of virtual‑asset laws. Connected regulations will be integrated into a new bill designed to govern the broader virtual asset market, the Digital Asset Basic Act. The government and the ruling Democratic Party are currently refining the virtual‑asset legislation’s phase 2, The Korea Times claims.

The Framework Act on Digital Assets should have been on the National Policy Committee’s March 31st agenda, but the crypto act’s second phase debate was pushed until after the June 3 local elections.

This change of direction follows Bithumb’s “ghost Bitcoin” system error this past February, when an employee input “Bitcoin” instead of won in a promotional event, mistakenly crediting 620,000 BTC (roughly 13–15 times Bithumb’s actual reserves) to 249 users. This situation briefly crashed Bithumb’s BTC price, triggering liquidations and revealing that the exchange’s internal ledger allowed transfers far beyond real holdings.

Afterwards, Bithumb faced a 6-month partial business suspension and 36.8 billion won fine over serious AML/KYC breaches.

Korea is moving toward bank‑style liability and real‑time verification for exchanges. The question this shift poses is if this regime will become a template for other high‑volume markets, especially where regulators already talk about proof‑of‑reserves, stablecoin oversight, and exchange accountability.

Traders can expect tighter collateral rules, and potentially thinner short‑term liquidity on Korean venues, but also lower tail‑risk of “ghost” assets.

If Korea proves that 5‑minute matching and kill switches are workable at scale, global regulators may demand similar systems, turning the Bithumb saga into a baseline for centralized‑exchange risk control.

Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview.

The Accumulation Blueprint Playing Out On ETH’s Weekly Chart

The weekly ETH/USDT chart posted by Crypto Patel on X illustrates a structured price pattern that has been developing since 2024. The chart identifies a Selling Climax (SC) in early 2024, followed by an Automatic Rally (AR) to resistance within two months, and then a Secondary Test (ST) of the Selling Climax in mid-2024. 

These are all terminologies of a Wyckoff blueprint, and this has created the sequence of price events that established the boundaries of the current trading range. There is a horizontal resistance line around $4,700 at the top of that range, while Support 1, at $1,549, represents the bottom.

There are also two notable downside wicks labeled as Spring 1 and Spring 2, both of which are situated around Support Spring 1, which occurred in mid-2025 and saw the Ethereum price fall below Support 1 very briefly before recovering and pushing back to a new all-time high just above the resistance line.

Since then, however, the Ethereum price has been on a downside path, and the current price action is labeled as Spring 2, which is just above Support 1. If Support 1 breaks down, the next intended buy zone is Support 2 at $1,065. It is within the projected fall to Support 2 where Crypto Patel identifies the $1,800 to $1,400 range as the best buying and accumulation zone.

Ethereum Price Chart. Source: @CryptoPatel On X

Price Move To $20,000

The ETH accumulation map projects a price rally to as high as $20,000 after Ethereum breaks out of the accumulation zone. This rally is, however, contingent on a big resistance / breakout level around $4,700. 

Crypto Patel’s projected targets ($10,000, $15,000, and $20,000) are plotted on the chart as a staged upside trajectory extending into late 2027 and 2028. The projected rally shows a rally from the current accumulation zone to $4,700, a pullback below $4,000 to consolidate the breakout, and then a parabolic extension to new all-time highs as high as $10,000 before continuing higher to $15,000 and $20,000.

A $20,000 price target for Ethereum would represent about a 10x return from the current price, which is trading at $2,135, up by 4.8% in the past 24 hours.

Mapping Out The Current XRP Trend

So far, it seems the XRP price is still stuck in a bearish structure, pseudonymous crypto analyst Quantitive Alpha shared in a TradingView post. This has been characterized by the XRP price putting in lower highs, as well as lower lows, suggesting that the downward trend is more powerful.

While this trend is important, there is also another development of interest that may have a significant impact on the XRP price as well. This is the premium FVG that could act as a magnet for the price, but eventually could be what sends XRP crashing even lower from here.

According to the crypto analyst, the XRP price could first move upward in a corrective move into this premium FVG gap. However, this would be in a bud to actually just rebalance the inefficiencies that have arose and then sweep Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) at these levels.

Once this BSL is swept through, this is when the real move begins, because the next direction will determine whether the bears remain in control or if the bulls are able to eventually take over.

Why A Bearish Continuation Is Likely

According to the crypto analyst, the first move into the premium FVG is only a part of the broader move, which is still very bearish. Explaining how this could play out, the analyst says that once the imbalance is filled, then the price is likely to reverse again to continue the bearish trend.

This is because XRP will begin targeting the Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) that lies lower than the current lows. Thus, this plays into a classic cycle of a digital asset initially moving toward taking whatever liquidity has pooled there, before moving back downward to continue its trend.

There is still a chance that the XRP price does flip bullish in the end, and this would be a sustained breakout of the premium FVG zone. This would eventually signal that the cryptocurrency has now shifted from bearish to bullish on the higher timeframe (HTF) structure.

$110 Million Of SOL Flow To Centralized Exchanges In 3 Days

In an April 4th post on the social media platform X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared that significant amounts of the Solana token have been moved to centralized exchanges over the past few days. This on-chain observation has caused a warning alarm to go off on the potential price trajectory of SOL, especially considering the already not-so-optimistic market climate.

The relevant indicator here is the Exchange Balance metric, which tracks the amount of a particular cryptocurrency available on centralized exchanges at a given time. This on-chain metric provides some level of insight into the current demand and supply dynamics in the crypto open market.

Hence, a rise in the value of this metric suggests that more market participants are sending assets to exchanges, which could imply that supply might be overwhelming the available demand. This trend could be bearish for an asset’s value (the Solana price, in this case), as it could be an indication of increasing selling pressure.

According to Glassnode data highlighted by Martinez, 1.40 million Solana, valued at approximately $110 million, were transferred to centralized exchanges in the last 72 hours. As inferred earlier, coin movements of this magnitude are often red flags in the market, as they could be a potential source of bearish pressure on price.

The rationale behind this conclusion is that one of the major services offered by centralized exchanges is a platform for investors and traders to offload their digital assets. Hence, this latest increase in the exchange inflow can be linked to a rise in selling pressure on the Solana price.

Solana Price At A Glance

Interestingly, the Solana price fell below the psychological $80 support after reaching the local high of around $85. As of this writing, the price of SOL stands at around $80.8, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the altcoin’s value has been down by more than 3% in the past seven days.

Have Whales Resumed BTC Accumulation?

On Saturday, April 4, market pundit Ali Martinez took to the X platform to share that the Bitcoin whales have stepped into the market and seem to be in accumulation mode again. This fresh observation could be an indicator of improving investor sentiment and a potential starting point for BTC’s next positive phase.

This on-chain observation is based on the rise in the Santiment BTC Held By Whales metric, which tracks the cumulative amount of Bitcoin held by large wallet addresses (with a balance of 100 to 10,000+ BTC) at a given time. This indicator helps to gauge the sentiment among one of the most relevant groups of investors in the BTC market.

Due to the size of their holdings, whales are often considered entities that wield significant influence on the market. Hence, their behavior and movements are typically monitored and viewed as a leading indicator for market direction.

According to data shared by Martinez, the BTC Held By Whales metric recently saw a notable spike, with the large wallet addresses accumulating around 10,000 Bitcoin over the past three days. When Bitcoin whales are actively increasing their holdings, it suggests an upturn in market confidence and perhaps rising expectations of a price increase.

Ultimately, the return of the whales to the Bitcoin market is a good sign that suggests an improving investor sentiment, which could be the exact foundation for the flagship cryptocurrency’s next bullish trend.

Bitcoin Bearish Discussions Reach Highest Level Since February 2026

In a post on the X platform, Santiment shared an on-chain data point that supports the possibility of a bullish reversal for the Bitcoin price. According to the analytics firm, Bitcoin is witnessing the highest ratio of bearish discussions (fear) since late February.

Santiment wrote on X:

There has been an extended period of stagnancy among cryptocurrencies throughout 2026, and social media indicates that Saturday’s ratio of just 0.81 bullish comments per 1.00 bearish is the lowest ratio since February 28th.

While this trend suggests a lack of optimism among the Bitcoin crowd, it is worth noting that the market tends to move in the opposite direction of general expectations. In essence, this high level of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) could be indicating a potential BTC turnaround sooner than expected.

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $67,400, reflecting an almost 1% jump in the past 24 hours.

The leading cryptocurrency has crossed a technical threshold in the Gaussian weekly uptrend that has appeared at the same stage of every prior market cycle, and according to one closely followed analyst, it may be pointing toward both a final dip to the bottom and the last discounted entry before the next bull run.

The Gaussian Channel Flip That Matters

In a technical update posted on X, ChartNerd pointed out that Bitcoin has flipped from its green Gaussian weekly uptrend into a red bearish channel, a transition he says has always opened the final stretch of every prior Bitcoin bear market.

According to the chart, which is shown below, each cycle follows a familiar sequence of a strong green expansion phase, a transition highlighted as a trend flip, and then a red bearish channel that leads into the final sweep. 

Examining the multi-year logarithmic Bitcoin weekly timeframe chart shows that the pattern is visible across the 2014/2015 cycle, the 2018/2019 bottom, and the 2022 cycle low. The current trend flip looks like those previous transitions, and this places Bitcoin once again at a point where the trend has always moved into bearish territory. 

According to ChartNerd, this signal has consistently appeared right before the last major downside move in past bear markets. This is why the analyst does not interpret the signal as the beginning of a prolonged collapse. However, it could be seen as a late-stage development, which shows the Bitcoin price is nearing a bottom.

Bitcoin Trend Flip. Source: @ChartNerdTA On X

The Path To The Bottom

Bitcoin is currently down by about 47% from its October 2025 peak price of $126,080. There is still a possibility of further downside from this point, but most of the structural damage to price has already occurred. ChartNerd’s current read places the projected final low somewhere in Q2 and Q3 2026, with a target sweep range between $40,000 and $50,000.

In another analysis post, ChartNerd noted that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle structure is still intact despite recent supercycle narratives and that the current market still operates within that structure.

Bitcoin Gaussian Channel. Source: @ChartNerdTA On X

The Gaussian Channel on the price chart shows that the Bitcoin price is on a path to test the channel’s red baseline at $66,895 on the 27-day timeframe, with the lower red support at $44,463. Each prior cycle saw a brief dip to or below that red support line. This means that the Bitcoin price may still face one more period of downside volatility to this range before reversing higher.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Japanese Gov’t Bonds Face Downturn Amid Macroeconomic Pressures 

According to XWIN Research Japan, yields on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) have been rising amid persistent inflationary pressures, expectations of policy normalization, and rising concerns over fiscal expansion. In response, there has been a corresponding fall in bond prices, indicating that Japan’s domestic institutions, e.g., banks, are simultaneously holding through heavy unrealized losses.

With approximately ¥390 trillion (approximately $2.6 trillion USD) currently invested in JGBs, even a modest 1% increase in yields could push tens of trillions of yen worth of holdings into negative territory, amplifying financial strain across the system.

Expectedly, this scenario has exerted significant pressure on institutional investors, forcing adjustments on their balance sheets. According to the crypto research group, risk assets, including Bitcoin, are the easy targets of this “rebalancing” activity. Considering that Japan maintains a large external investment portfolio, any liquidity withdrawal exhibits a signal effect on the market.

Therefore, this chain of rising yields, which leads eventually to liquidity contraction, often affects Bitcoin directly. Notably, historical patterns have suggested that low-rate environments often support price growth or expansions, while increasing rates typically impede the flagship cryptocurrency’s growth.

Stablecoin Supply Surges Toward Record Levels

Furthermore, XWIN Research Japan cites the All Stablecoins (ER20): Total Supply metric to report a significant growth in the available stablecoin supply. According to research analysts, this suggests that there is actually capital waiting on the sidelines. However, this available liquidity is clearly not being introduced into risk markets. 

Hence, it becomes apparent that Bitcoin is currently within a classic environment where liquidity exists, but is yet to be deployed. Interestingly, exchange flows also reveal that about $9.6 billion left the Bitcoin market in early 2026, with capital evidently rotating into stablecoins. These two conditions also contribute to weakened demand, as rising rates already cause demand to taper.

Therefore, until macroeconomic conditions improve, the Bitcoin price might continue to struggle in the long-term, as institutional demand might even then become weaker. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $67,391, reflecting a positive daily shift of 0.76%. On larger time frames, the premier cryptocurrency reports a weekly gain of 1.34% and a monthly loss of 5.47%. With a market cap of $1.34 trillion, Bitcoin remains the world’s 13th largest asset and largest digital asset.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Major Catalysts To Watch Out For That Could Send Bitcoin Price To $90,000

BWCI Rises To 75% As Bitcoin Whales Prepare For Rally

In a QuickTake post on April 4, market analyst GugaOnChain reports a massive stablecoin stash being accumulated to provide liquidity to the Bitcoin market despite ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty. This report is based on data from the Binance Whale Concentration Indicator (BWCI), which measures quality and concentration of capital flowing into Binance, specifically, whether that liquidity is dominated by large investors (whales) or smaller retail participants.

According to GugaOnChain, the USDT inflow on the exchange is presently nine times higher than it was at the Bitcoin all-time high of $126,100 in early October. On October 6, 2025, the BCWI stood at 8.25%, indicating that only a minor percentage of these capital inflows was attributed to large, strategic players, suggesting a market peak that was largely retail-driven.  However, the indicator reached 74.58% on April 4, proving that the current capital influx is coming from large market players.

The rise in institutional market dominance is also producing a bolstering effect on the derivatives market. This is because the BCWI also indicates that the growing USDT reserve is serving as collateral for an ongoing Open Interest expansion. At the time of the report, total USDT reserves on Binance were approximately valued at $3.50 billion, which GugaOnChain describes as “dry powder” that whales are presently deploying to establish credible supports in the spot and dictate movements in the derivative market.

Bitcoin Rebound Still Contingent On Risk Exhaustion

According to GugaOnChain, while the on-chain metrics indicate accumulation of buying power that could drive rallies, there are still other factors central to Bitcoin market recovery. One of these factors includes the current geopolitical risk, which the analyst states must reach an exhaustion point for any macro expansion to commence.

Furthermore, there is a need for Bitcoin ETF inflows to support this bullish microstructure with a corresponding rise in net deposits. With the absence of these catalysts, the rising amount of ready market liquidity would do little to prevent a further retrace to the present realized price of $54,000.  At press time, Bitcoin trades at $66,658.

Ripple President Reveals Another Key Area For XRP

In an X post, crypto pundit John Squire drew attention to the Ripple President’s statement in which she noted that decentralized identities will enable users to take back control of their identities from web2 companies. With decentralized identities, individuals will be able to tokenize their identities on a network such as XRP Ledger (XRPL). 

Long noted that this tokenization will make these decentralized identities transportable and enable individuals to delegate access to whoever they want. John Squire described decentralized identities as a game-changer. He noted that individuals will be able to turn their identity, KYC, and even DNA into a private portable token on the XRP Ledger using zero-knowledge proofs. 

The pundit added that the decentralized identities will enable everyone to prove everything without revealing anything. The XRP Ledger is already making progress with zero-knowledge proofs as the network looks to provide privacy for network users. Crypto pundit Pumpius recently highlighted how the network has made history with the first-ever zero-knowledge (ZK) privacy transaction going live on the testnet. 

The pundit stated that the DNA Protocol was responsible for these ZK privacy transactions on the XRP Ledger. The protocol turned real-world data into a ZK proof, verified on-chain with zero sensitive information exposed. Pumpius added that with plans to implement ZK proof on the XRPL, banks, governments, and institutions can now confirm everything. This includes KYC, medical records, financials, and compliance, without ever seeing the actual data. 

ZK Technology Will Be A Game Changer On XRPL

Ripple’s Head of Research, Aanchal Malhotra, said that it will be great for the XRP Ledger to implement zero-knowledge technology. She noted that this will enable several use cases and that there are many innovative applications they can build with this technology. ZK technology will enable several privacy features, which would further attract institutions to the network. 

Crypto pundit Minus noted that ZK technology will enable privacy without sacrificing compliance. Furthermore, he said that this would lead to selective disclosure and “insane scalability.” That way, “Institutions can finally have their cake and eat it too,” he added. 

It is worth noting that the XRP Ledger is already moving to implement privacy features natively on the network, including Permissioned Domains, which enable institutions to restrict access to authorized users. The network has also enabled Confidential Multi-Purpose Tokens (Confidential MPTs), which hide the balances and transaction amounts. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.31, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The world’s largest stablecoin issuer is pushing ahead with a funding round that would price the company at $500 billion, a figure that would put it above some of the biggest names in American banking.

A Valuation That Dwarfs Its Own Product

That number is striking when held against Tether’s actual stablecoin market cap, which currently sits at around $184 billion. The gap between those two figures reflects what Tether is asking investors to believe — that the company’s future is worth far more than its present.

Reports indicate the company has ambitions well beyond issuing USDT, and that broader strategy is baked into the valuation.

At $500 billion, Tether would be worth more than JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo. That kind of comparison draws attention. It also raises questions that a two-week deadline leaves little time to answer.

The ultimatum is simple: enough investors sign on and the deal moves forward. If not, Tether may shelve the fundraising attempt again.

This Round Almost Never Happened

This is not the company’s first run at a major capital raise. An earlier attempt fell apart before it got off the ground. Early discussions reportedly floated a raise of anywhere from $15 billion to $20 billion — figures the company later walked back, calling them upper-end possibilities rather than firm targets.

By February 2026, advisers had reportedly pulled the target down to around $5 billion. Concerns about transparency and the $500 billion price tag had cooled some investor interest.

CEO Paolo Ardoino pushed back on that characterization at the time, saying demand from investors remained strong and that there was no pressure to rush.

Now, with the deadline set, the pressure is very much on.

One move Tether made ahead of this round may carry more weight than the deadline itself. The company recently brought on a Big Four accounting firm to conduct its first full audit.

Based on reports, it could rank among the largest audits ever completed in the financial industry — a significant step for a company that has long faced scrutiny over how its reserves are managed.

The timing is not accidental. Signing a major auditor right before a high-stakes fundraise sends a message to potential investors about where the company is headed on transparency.

Meanwhile, competition in the stablecoin space is growing. PayPal, Circle, and a string of traditional financial firms have been expanding their own stablecoin efforts.

USDC, run by Circle, holds a market cap of around $32 billion — well behind USDT’s $184 billion, but closing ground. Tether’s dominance is real, but it is no longer uncontested.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Pressure Intensifies, SOL Structure Breaks 

SOL pressure is building, according to Marcus Corvinus, with recent price action reflecting a noticeable shift in momentum. Losing the key trendline signals that the bullish structure is beginning to weaken, raising concerns that sellers are gradually taking control of the market.

The $92–$95 zone previously acted as a strong area of defense, but this time, sellers stepped in with clear intent, rejecting prices from that region. That rejection has now pushed SOL down into the $75–$78 range, where the market is currently consolidating.

This level is more than just support; it represents a critical decision zone. Price is compressing here, and the market is essentially waiting for a catalyst. The reaction at this level will likely determine the next major move.

If buyers manage to defend this zone, a sharp upside reaction could follow, potentially triggering a quick bounce and even a short squeeze as trapped sellers are forced to cover. However, if this support fails to hold, downside pressure could accelerate quickly, with little structural support below. For now, sentiment appears heavy, with momentum gradually tilting away from the bulls, making this level one of the most important areas to watch.

Solana’s Classification As A Commodity Changes The Narrative

In an update, Crypto Patel highlighted that Solana has now been classified as a commodity, even while it remains about 77% below its all-time high. This places the asset in a unique position, still significantly discounted, yet gaining stronger recognition and positioning in the broader market.

The current situation draws comparisons to earlier cycles, where SOL experienced sharp drawdowns before staging massive recoveries. Reflecting on 2022, when prices dipped as low as around $8, the sentiment then was equally bearish. However, that move ultimately led to an explosive rally, with SOL proving its ability to rebound with over 2,000% gains from the bottom.

From a technical standpoint, the long-term chart shows that Solana is holding firmly within the Fibonacci golden zone on the 2-week timeframe. This area has historically acted as a strong accumulation region in past cycles. With this structure in place, the outlook remains a move toward $1,000 and beyond is not just speculation, but a matter of time if the broader trend continues to play out.

Bitcoin Price Roadmap To $90,000

Rawl, a crypto market expert on X, has presented a new price analysis of Bitcoin, outlining in detail how the cryptocurrency can return to $90,000 and what traders should expect in the coming weeks and months. The analyst noted that, so far, Bitcoin has been following an expected plan, suggesting that the recent pullbacks, rebounds, and other price changes were normal reactions. 

He said that although the market’s timeline has been the only surprise, the cryptocurrency’s structure is what truly matters. Rawl stated that, following Bitcoin’s price crash to $60,000 in February, which marked its lowest level since its 2025 all-time high, the cryptocurrency needed two more waves to complete its corrective structure.

As expected, Bitcoin went on to form Wave 4 and Wave 5 in its Elliott Wave setup, completing the full corrective Wave C chart structure. He added that BTC’s previous pullback to $63,000 counted as one wave and officially confirmed the final downward move.  

Since then, Rawl noted that the market has rebounded, starting a new bullish Elliott Wave phase. In this fresh setup, the analyst stated that Bitcoin has already printed Wave 1 and Wave 2, with the market presently in a choppy range around $65,000 ahead of its next two waves to the upside. 

He explained that once these waves complete, Bitcoin could rise quickly toward $90,000 to $96,000. After hitting that level, he expects it to move sideways for a few weeks before declining again as it enters a new corrective ABC wave, likely around the time a new Federal Reserve chair replaces Jerome Powell. He described this correction as a bullish move, noting that it could persist until the upcoming FOMC meeting in June. 

The analyst noted that the price action following the FOMC could complete the first corrective Wave C, allowing the market to resume its uptrend. Alternatively, Bitcoin could drop one more time toward the $71,000 to $74,000 range, forming the next Wave 2 before a larger rally begins. 

Rawl confidently stated that Bitcoin has an 80% chance of reaching a new all-time high this year. He noted that the remaining 20% possibility suggests that price could rise to the $116,000 to $125,000 range below its current cycle top.   

Analyst Outlines Other Likely Path For Bitcoin Price

Although Rawl strongly believes in the roadmap he outlined above, he acknowledged that a less likely scenario is that Bitcoin could experience a deeper pullback between May and June, falling below $74,000 and possibly crashing to $55,000. 

Because of this risk, the analyst recommends taking profits of 20-30% around the $90,000 range, then gradually buying back 10-15% of that position if Bitcoin dips to $74,000, and the rest if the price falls to $55,000 in June or by Q1 2027. Regardless of what happens to Bitcoin, the analyst still believes the cryptocurrency could hit an all-time high afterward. 

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Supply In Profit Drops To 11.3 Million BTC

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst EgyHash put forward a somewhat optimistic outlook on the Bitcoin price, saying the flagship cryptocurrency might be forming a major cycle bottom. The relevant on-chain indicator here is the Supply in Profit Market Bands metric. 

As observed in the chart below, the blue area on the graph represents the Supply in Profit, while the green line marks the Bottom Discovery. 

According to EgyHash, the Supply in Profit has recently fallen to about 11.3 million BTC. This is after tearing through the Psychological Inflection (orange) and Liquidity Accumulation (purple) lines. 

More importantly, EgyHash noted that the Bitcoin Supply in Profit landed directly on the “Bottom Discovery” area. This particular band, according to the analyst, is where most Bitcoin short-term holders have been forced to turn over their holdings.

Historically, the Supply in Profit reading has only reached the green band during major bottoms of the Bitcoin cycle. The market quant cites the depths of the crypto winter in the 2018/2019 period as an example; the March 2020 liquidity crisis also features in this data, with the other instance being the late 2022 post-FTX capitulation. 

Notably, the expert also points out that the speed of the current transition is astounding. This is because the Bitcoin market moved quickly from the Overheated Zone to the Bottom Discovery within a single flush. 

EgyHash explained that this is a tell-tale sign that “Seller Exhaustion” has become the current state of affairs, with the “Mania” phase already long superseded.

Long-Term Holders Display Dominance As Sell Pressure Wanes

Typically, when the Supply in Profit reaches this significant base, it signals that long-term holders have taken the reins. This is the classic scenario where diamond hands absorb the supply of weaker hands. 

Nonetheless, the crypto pundit highlighted an important caveat, saying falling to the Bottom Discovery band “does not guarantee an immediate V-shaped recovery,” but that it instead signals a relatively high exhaustion of bearish risk. As such, market participants are advised to wait for further confirmation before making their move.

As of this writing, the Bitcoin price sits at approximately $66,901, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. 

That was the key message from Kraken’s chief security officer, Nick Percoco, who told reporters that hacking activity in the crypto space tends to spike during bull markets, major product launches, and periods of rapid growth — not because of the calendar, but because those are the moments when the most value is concentrated in one place.

“Vulnerabilities can be exploited in any market environment,” Percoco said, warning that security in crypto has to be treated as an ongoing effort, not a seasonal one.

His comments came as new data showed a notable drop in crypto theft during the first three months of 2026. According to DefiLlama, hackers pulled $168 million from 34 decentralized finance protocols between January and March — a steep fall from the $1.58 billion stolen during the same period last year.

Private Keys And Smart Contracts Remain Weak Spots

That prior-year figure, however, was heavily skewed by a single incident: the $1.4 billion Bybit breach, which accounted for nearly the entire Q1 2025 total. Strip that out and the comparison looks less dramatic.

Still, the losses in early 2026 were far from small. The biggest hit came in January, when portfolio management platform Step Finance lost $40 million after attackers compromised its private keys.

Days later, on Jan. 8, decentralized protocol Truebit was drained of $26.4 million worth of ether through a smart contract manipulation. A third major incident struck stablecoin issuer Resolv Labs in late March, also through a private key compromise — the same method used in the Step Finance attack.

Private key failures and code exploits are two very different problems, but both keep appearing in the data. One is a human and operational issue. The other is a code issue. Neither has been solved.

North Korea-Linked Groups Remain A Persistent Concern

Data shows that 34 separate DeFi protocols were hit across the quarter. The attacks were spread across the period, with January bearing the heaviest losses.

Percoco described the threat pool as a mix of highly coordinated groups, organized criminal networks, and opportunistic individuals scanning for weak points in smart contracts and user-facing systems.

North Korea-linked actors have been flagged repeatedly in connection with major crypto thefts. Suspected affiliates of that network were linked to an attack on decentralized exchange Drift Protocol, which lost an estimated $285 million to a private key leak.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin Bullish Signals: On-Chain Scarcity And Quiet Accumulation

In a QuickTake post on April 3, GugaOnChain highlights a series of structural shifts beneath the recent Bitcoin price action. The analyst shares on-chain data showing that approximately 66,300 BTC, worth about $4.44 billion, has been withdrawn from exchanges over the past month. This kind of trend is indicative of a move toward long-term storage, thereby reducing the amount of Bitcoin readily available for sale and contributing to a supply-side squeeze.

Furthermore, Over The Counter (OTC) transactions have accounted for 92.1% of Bitcoin’s recent trading volume, i.e., $16.49 billion, compared to just 7.9% on public order books. This is another bullish development pointing to quiet institutional accumulation and growing BTC scarcity. In contrast, retail investors continue to exit the market as data shows realized losses totaling approximately $690 million within 24 hours, a sign of capitulation that often accompanies late-stage corrections. However, such behavior, combined with smart money accumulation, has historically preceded local price bottoms because weaker hands exit the market, effectively reducing selling pressure.

The Uncertain Macroeconomic Clouds

Despite the supply shock being created, Bitcoin remains heavily subject to external macroeconomic factors. These include global liquidity conditions, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical tensions, which are all capable of triggering abrupt market reactions that may override bullish supply dynamics. In this environment, the use of the Top 5 Exchange Whale Inflow is a critical monitoring tool that shows the real-time response of these big-time players to macro shocks.

Amid heightened geopolitical risks, as recently seen in the US-Iran-Israel war, monitoring inflows to major exchanges such as Binance (to assess global demand) and Coinbase (to ascertain US investors’ interest) is an efficient way of identifying potential sell-offs or flash crashes. For context, the seven-day average of the Top 5 exchange whale inflows currently stands at 16,551 BTC. Any sharp increase in this metric will reflect a shift from accumulation to liquidity-seeking behavior and precede any price fall.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $66,889 following a 1.36% gain in the past week. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down by 41.68% and valued at $22.91 billion. Notably, Bitcoin’s risk-reward profile remains favorable as retail selling pressure has largely been exhausted, suggesting a potential local bottom could form soon. However, an increase in the probability of a left-fail suggests that any sharp drop could have severe effects, thus putting the market in a delicate position.

Is BTC Accumulation Period About To Resume?

In an April 3rd post on the social media platform X, Alphractal co-founder and CEO Joao Wedson revealed that Bitcoin is starting to become less overvalued. This on-chain observation is based on the RVTS (Realized Value/Transaction Volume) Ratio, which tracks the relationship between market capitalization and the network’s adjusted economic value.

According to Wedson, a rise in this metric’s value could imply a rise in the flagship cryptocurrency’s realized value. At the same time, an increasing RVTS Ratio can also be a signal of a decline in activity or transaction volume on the Bitcoin network.

Highlighting data from Alphractal, the crypto founder shared that the RVTS Ratio just reached its highest level ever, potentially pointing to the lowest network utilization in the history of the premier cryptocurrency. 

Wedson wrote on X:

In previous cycles, these extremes appeared near cycle bottoms or low-participation zones, when volume collapses, and the network becomes “silent.” When the indicator rises, adjusted economic volume declines, network usage weakens, and the denominator collapses, a pattern consistently seen around major cycle bottoms (2012, 2015, 2019, 2022) and local bottoms within broader structures.

According to the Alphractal CEO, this record level of the RVTS Ratio indicates less overvaluation and more structural apathy in a Bitcoin market increasingly being steered by liquidity and derivatives. From a historical perspective, this signal often precedes periods of accumulation and revaluation. 

In essence, this record-high level of the RVTS Ratio could be the bright spark of optimism the Bitcoin price needs to start its turnaround. Conversations have heightened around the market leader’s potential bottom, as it continues to oscillate within the $65,000 – $70,000 consolidation range.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $66,880, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. While the market leader is down from its weekly high of over $69,000, it is still in a better place (nearly 2% up) than it was seven days ago.

Bitcoin ETF Adoption Redefines Market Dynamics

The US Bitcoin Spot ETFs were launched in January 2024, marking a historic moment for institutional participation in the digital asset market. These funds have turned out to be a monumental success, attracting a present cumulative total net inflow of $55.96 billion and net assets of $86.22 billion, accounting for 6.44% of the current BTC market cap.  In a QuickTake post on April 3, market analysis page XWIN Research Japan explains that the growth of the Bitcoin ETFs market is allowing these investment products to influence key market aspects such as liquidity and price discovery.

For context, the average daily trading volume of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs is estimated to be in the multi-billion dollar range, with BlackRock’s IBIT intermittently experiencing levels similar to the Coinbase exchange. This observation suggests that these investment funds now play a major role in price discovery, which has been historically tied to trading volume observed on the centralized exchanges. Meanwhile, the net assets of 1.3 million BTC represent more than just inflows. XWIN Research Japan describes this development as a structural supply lock, reducing BTC liquidity in active circulation.

In particular, these changing dynamics have been attributed to the constant efforts by authorized sponsors to arbitrage price gaps as well as the approval of in-kind creation/redemption, thus ensuring that ETFs reflect spot market price and showcase a capital efficiency that encourages continued institutional adoption.

Bitcoin ETFs In Japan?

Meanwhile, XWIN Research Japan also highlighted the potential role of Japanese investors in expanding the Bitcoin ETFs market influence. With over ¥2,000 trillion ($12.53 billion) in household assets, even small allocations to a potential  Bitcoin spot ETF market would result in significant inflows capable of altering the demand-supply market.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $66,889 following a minor 1.14% gain over the last week. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down by 41.68%, suggesting that market participants remain largely apprehensive despite recent gains. Over the last week, the premier cryptocurrency maintained a price range of $66,000-$69,000, amid multiple retest attempts of the lower boundary zone. The bear market remains active with present spot prices still about 47% away from the cycle’s all-time high at $126,100.

Taiwan Approves $6M Fines To Combat Crypto Fraud

On Friday, local news outlets reported that the Executive Yuan passed the draft of the Virtual Asset Service Act (VASA) on April 2, marking a major step to regulate crypto assets in Taiwan.

The VASA, introduced by the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) last year, supports the efforts by Taiwanese authorities to establish a comprehensive crypto framework for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) and stablecoin issuers.

In 2024, the FSC overhauled its Anti-Money Laundering (AML) framework to include crypto businesses, adding stricter AML guidelines for VASPs and requiring all digital asset firms to complete the AML registration by September 2025.

Premier Cho Jung-tai explained that the new framework, which will be implemented in four gradual phases, includes industry self-regulation and an AML compliance registration system. The measures aim to enhance the security of virtual asset transactions, pilot custody services, and support the growth of domestic financial innovation, he added.

According to the reports, the draft requires VASPs to operate exclusively in this field and meet specific standards for their company name, organizational structure, and capital. Financial institutions can also operate VASP services in addition to their other businesses, if approved.

In addition, special regulations would be customized to suit the nature of each service provider. For instance, trading platforms would be required to establish clear guidelines for listing and delisting virtual assets.

The draft also includes heavy penalties for unlicensed and fraudulent activities, with offences involving crypto falsification, concealment, or price manipulation risking 3-10 years in prison and fines of up to NTD 200 million, worth $6.25 million.

Meanwhile, firms that issue stablecoins without a license could face up to seven years in prison and fines of up to NTD 100 million, or about $3.13 million, according to the draft.

New Stablecoin Regulations To Prohibit Interest Payments

Officials outlined the main differences between the recently passed VASA draft and the FSC’s original text regarding stablecoin guidelines, which include issuance and redemption regulations, restrictions on interest or returns, and internal control and cybersecurity management.

Under the new draft, the issuance and redemption of stablecoins must be conducted at face value, and issuers may not refuse redemption requests from holders. Issuers are also prohibited from paying interest or returns to holders on the stablecoins they issue, aligning with international trends.

Lastly, issuers must establish and maintain robust internal control and audit systems, along with information security management mechanisms, to ensure the proper issuance and redemption of stablecoins.

FSC Deputy Chairman Chen Yen-liang asserted that stablecoin issuance is not currently limited to banks, but noted that the financial institutions are “generally better positioned to meet the relevant requirements” due to their capital strength and risk management capabilities.

For other operators, different capital thresholds and operating guarantee requirements would be set based on the nature of their business, with further details to be announced after the legislation officially passes.

In December, FSC Chairman Peng Jin-long revealed that the island’s first regulated stablecoin could debut this year. As reported by Bitcoinist, stablecoin-centered regulations would be developed within six months after the VASA’s approval, setting the launch of locally issued tokens pegged to the NTD or the USD to the second half of 2026.

Deputy Chairman Chen added that the regulator would adopt a “gradual opening” model, and relevant regulations would be developed by authorities alongside the Central Bank.

The analysis, released on social media platform X on Friday, chronicles multiple high‑profile decentralized finance (DeFi) exploits in which Circle allegedly failed to use its on‑chain freezing and blacklist capabilities to halt the flow of stolen funds.

Alleged Inaction By Circle

Circle’s token contract includes an explicit freeze/blacklist function, and the company’s terms of service reserve the right to restrict access for suspected illicit actors “in its sole discretion.” 

Yet, ZachXBT’s report claims that in many widely reported thefts and hacks, the issuer either delayed action or did not freeze funds at all, allowing attackers to move large sums across blockchains and convert them into other assets.

The report opens with the April 1, 2026, Drift Protocol exploit, in which the attacker drained roughly $280 million. According to ZachXBT, the thief used Circle’s Cross‑Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) to bridge more than 232 million USDC from Solana (SOL) to Ethereum (ETH) in over 100 transactions.

The incident had ripple effects across the Solana ecosystem, indirectly impacting more than 10 DeFi projects. Despite the funds moving through Circle’s native bridge for hours, the report says no USDC was frozen during the laundering.

ZachXBT also details a January 25, 2026, attack on SwapNet that resulted in $16 million being stolen. Roughly $3 million in USDC remained in the exploiter’s address for two days. Both law enforcement and private‑sector analysts reportedly submitted temporary freeze requests to Circle for that address, but Circle did not act. 

Nine‑Figure Losses In Crypto Hacks

Among several other cases cited in the report, ZachXBT also points to broader, long‑running patterns. In April 2024, he published a separate investigation into the Lazarus Group laundering that traced funds from more than two dozen hacks being converted to fiat. 

Law enforcement requested freezes from four stablecoin issuers — Circle, Tether, Paxos, and Techteryx — for two addresses tied to that investigation. The report claims the other three issuers acted quickly, while Circle took approximately 4.5 months longer to freeze the same addresses.

Taken together, ZachXBT says these cases — many of them public and high‑value — add up to nine‑figure losses to the crypto ecosystem caused by repeated inaction over a multi‑year period. 

He stresses that the $420 million-plus figure covers only major public incidents and that the true total could be substantially higher. The overarching claim is that Circle possesses the contractual and technical tools to intervene, yet has not used them consistently or promptly, with concrete harm to victims and the broader community.

“They have every tool and resource available to do better. They just haven’t,” he writes, closing his report with a pointed question: who, exactly, is Circle serving?

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

USDC Exchange Inflow Has Hit The Highest Level In Months

As highlighted by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Exchange Inflow recently observed a surge for Circle’s stablecoin, USDC. The “Exchange Inflow” here is an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of a given asset that’s being transferred to wallets connected to centralized exchanges.

Generally, one of the main reasons why investors deposit their tokens to these platforms is for selling-related purposes, so a spike in the metric can indicate elevated demand for swapping the cryptocurrency. In the case of assets like Bitcoin, this can naturally have a bearish effect on the price.

For a stablecoin like USDC, however, there is no such effect as its price is by definition stable around the $1 mark. That said, exchange inflows related to the asset can still matter for the wider sector.

Often, investors stash their capital away in the form of these fiat-tied tokens when they want to wait for an opportune moment to enter the volatile side. Once traders feel that the time is right, they deposit their stablecoins to exchanges, swapping them for Bitcoin or any digital asset of their choice. This shifting can naturally provide a buying boost to the target cryptocurrency.

As the chart below, shared by Maartunn, shows, the USDC Exchange Inflow has observed a massive spike during the past day, implying exchanges have received a large amount of the stablecoin.

The latest deposit spree has seen the inflow of 778,566,191.65 USDC, the largest level since September 2025. Back then, the large spike led into Bitcoin’s run to the new all-time high (ATH) above $126,000 in early October. It now remains to be seen whether the new surge in the indicator is a sign of market buying.

Since stablecoins are often used for injecting capital into the volatile side of the sector, their supply is considered as a measure of the sector’s liquidity waiting on the sidelines. An indicator called the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) compares the market cap of Bitcoin against this liquidity to estimate how much room the cryptocurrency might have to grow.

As the analyst pointed out in another X post, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the BTC SSR has declined into the green zone recently.

Based on the trend, Maartunn explained, “There is still a large amount of stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin’s market cap, suggesting buying power remains on the sidelines.”

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $66,600, up 1% over the last 24 hours.

A Two-Track Approach To Bitcoin Accumulation

The company operates what it calls a Bitcoin Income Generation business, a ring-fenced portfolio that uses collateral-secured options contracts to produce income. Once those option cycles close out, the returns can be converted into direct Bitcoin purchases and added to the firm’s long-term holdings.

Based on company filings dated April 2, trailing 12-month revenue from that segment reached roughly $71.5 million when combined with full-year 2025 figures of nearly $54 million.

That income engine ran alongside a significant buying spree. Metaplanet acquired 5,075 Bitcoin in Q1 at an average price of roughly $79,898 per coin, spending about $405 million in total.

During Q1 2026, Metaplanet acquired 5075 BTC for $405.48 million at ~$79,898 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 2.8% YTD 2026. As of 03/31/2026, we hold 40,177 $BTC acquired for ~$4.18 billion at ~$104,106 per bitcoin. $MPJPY $MTPLF pic.twitter.com/IMxC3lwYCx

— Simon Gerovich (@gerovich) April 2, 2026

The purchases pushed its cumulative holdings to 40,177 Bitcoin — enough to rank it as the third-largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury in the world, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data.

Metaplanet Chief executive Simon Gerovich shared the figures in investor materials, reporting a year-to-date BTC Yield of 2.8% for 2026. That metric tracks how Bitcoin holdings grow on a per-share basis. It does not measure income.

Cost Basis Sits Well Above Current Market Price

The firm’s average acquisition cost across its entire holdings stands at $104,106 per coin, according to the same materials. With Bitcoin trading around $66,550 at the time of the announcement, the company’s treasury carries a substantial gap between what it paid and what those coins are worth on the open market today.

Despite the headline acquisition numbers, the market response was muted. Metaplanet shares fell almost 2% on Thursday to $302, down from $308 the day before, data from Yahoo Finance shows. Annual revenue and operating profit forecasts were left unchanged from guidance issued in January.

Elsewhere in the listed Bitcoin vehicle space, Nakamoto disclosed Wednesday that it unloaded 284 Bitcoin for $20 million in March and unwound a significant portion of its stake in Metaplanet at a loss during the first quarter. The move underlines how exposed these corporate treasury strategies are to price swings in a volatile asset class.

Metaplanet has not changed its full-year outlook for the period ending December 31, 2026, and continues to pursue both sides of its strategy — accumulating Bitcoin for the long term while using options to keep fresh capital moving into the treasury.

Featured image from fundacionblazer.org, chart from TradingView

On the other hand, the XRP’s price, currently trading around $1.31, has declined for six consecutive months. However, the surge in on-chain activity may be laying the foundation for a move that price has yet to reflect.

Active Addresses And Transactions Numbers At Peaks

Recent data from XRPScan shows daily active users, measured by addresses carrying SourceTag and DestinationTag activity, have climbed back above 200,000, a level that has always been associated with periods of increased market participation. 

The six-month chart shows that the metric has held largely between 100,000 and 180,000 since October 2025, with periodic spikes above the upper threshold. The timing matters because the surge arrives in a period where price action has been relatively unstable in terms of bullish momentum.

What this means is that the spike in active addresses is not based purely on a breakout rally. Instead, it points to usage of the Ledger picking up independently, whether through transfers, exchange flows, or institutional-related activity on the network.

At the same time, transaction throughput has reached a milestone of its own. The XRP Ledger recently recorded over 4 million successful transactions in a single day for the first time in over two years, reaching as high as 4.49 million transactions on April 2.

The chart shows a steady climb in transaction activity since late December, with higher highs forming into February and March. Even when pullbacks occurred, the baseline level of transactions remained above 2 million, which is another sign of sustained usage and activity on the Ledger. That persistence in activity ties in with the network recently surpassing 7.7 million non-empty wallets for the first time in its 13-plus year history.

Will Price Catch Up To The Surge In Network Activity?

The current disconnect between on-chain strength and price performance is very glaring. Increases in active addresses and transaction counts have sometimes preceded larger price moves, but the relationship is not always immediate.

XRP has not closed a monthly candle in the green since September 2025, with six consecutive red months bringing the price to $1.31 and approaching another support at $1.28. Billions of dollars worth of XRP have also left exchanges in recent weeks, with a notable example being $11.4 billion worth of XRP leaving Binance.

Although activity alone does not guarantee a rally, what is clear, however, is that XRP is no longer dealing with weak on-chain fundamentals. The network is active, growing, and processing huge numbers of daily transactions, and this usage could translate into price growth in the coming weeks and months.

Data from Arkham Intelligence has confirmed a behavioral shift at the Ethereum Foundation that the market has been waiting for without knowing it was waiting: the Foundation has stopped selling ETH and has started staking it. That sentence requires context to carry its full weight.

For much of the past several months, the Ethereum Foundation’s periodic ETH sales represented one of the most psychologically damaging overhangs in the market. Each confirmed sell transaction from the Foundation’s wallets arrived as a signal from the inside — the organization that created Ethereum, that understands its technology more deeply than any outside participant, choosing to convert its holdings into cash. The market interpreted those sales as institutional doubt expressed in the most credible possible form. Price suffered accordingly.

That chapter appears to be closing. Staking is the opposite of selling in every meaningful sense. It is locking, committing, removing from circulation, and earning yield on the conviction that Ethereum’s future justifies the commitment. The Foundation is no longer exiting. It is embedding itself deeper.

This Is No Longer a One-Time Decision

Arkham’s on-chain data documents the specific transaction that makes the behavioral shift concrete: the Ethereum Foundation has staked an additional $46.64 million in ETH, bringing its total staked position to $96.59 million. That cumulative figure is the number that matters most — not because of its size relative to the Foundation’s total treasury, but because of what it represents as a repeated, deliberate, escalating commitment.

A single staking transaction can be dismissed as treasury optimization. Two transactions totaling nearly $100 million cannot. The Foundation has now made the same decision twice, in the same direction, at a price level that the broader market has treated as fragile support. Each transaction is a vote. The second vote confirms the first was not an anomaly.

The supply consequence is direct and permanent for the duration of the stake. $96.59 million in ETH now sits in staking contracts — unavailable for sale, removed from the liquid float, contributing nothing to the sell-side pressure that has weighed on the $2,000 level for weeks. The Foundation’s previous selling added to that pressure. Its current staking position actively reduces it.

The organization that built Ethereum has now committed nearly $100 million to its own protocol at exactly the moment the market is deciding whether $2,000 holds. That timing is not incidental. It is a statement.

Related Reading: $410 Million In Bitcoin Losses Realized In A Week. Two Key Indicators Say the Stress Is Not Over Yet

Ethereum Tests Long-Term Support as Weekly Structure Weakens

Ethereum’s weekly structure shows a market at an inflection point, not in a confirmed breakdown. Price is currently holding near $2,060, sitting just above the 200-week moving average — a level that has historically acted as a long-term trend boundary. That positioning matters. Unlike lower timeframes, this is where structural bull and bear regimes are defined.

The rejection from the $4,000–$4,500 region established a clear lower high, breaking the sequence of higher highs that defined the prior expansion phase. Since then, Ethereum has retraced sharply, losing the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, both of which are now flattening and beginning to roll over. That shift signals weakening momentum, but not yet a completed trend reversal.

The key issue is follow-through. The recent bounce off sub-$2,000 levels has not been strong enough to reclaim the 100-week average decisively. Without that, price remains vulnerable to another test of the 200-week level.

Volume does not show aggressive accumulation at current levels. That absence raises a question: is this a structural defense or a temporary pause?

If $2,000 fails on a weekly basis, the next meaningful support sits significantly lower. If it holds, Ethereum remains in a contested but still salvageable long-term structure.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

SWIFT Might Be Integrating XRP Ledger Infrastructure

SWIFT, an open global standard for financial information, is now in the spotlight as speculations are starting to swell across the market regarding the company’s inner workings. This is centered around a possible integration or relationship between SWIFT and the XRP Ledger (XRPL).

Over time, SWIFT has been hailed for its fast processing time and execution, but some analysts are starting to suggest the possibility of the XRP Ledger currently playing a role behind the scenes. Pumpius, a crypto commentator, highlighted on X that SWIFT could be secretly using the Ledger at the backend.

Even though no formal confirmation has been made, the notion that a major traditional financial messaging company might covertly access blockchain technology underscores the notable growth of the blockchain sector. The multiple partnerships between big financial institutions and Ripple Labs are reinforcing this rumor.

According to Pumpius, 36 out of the 50+ banks on SWIFT’s new retail cross-border payments list are already in partnership with leading payment firm Ripple. In addition, SWIFT has recently made announcements regarding Ripple Treasury as an official part of its Certified Partner Program.

As outlined by City of London banker Lord Belgrave in a strategy meeting with major banks, Ripple and the XRP Ledger were freely discussed as powering the underlying tech for cross-border payments of the next generation.

SWIFT’s frontend, which handles the customer interface, branding, and compliance, remains with each respective bank or financial institution. However, the backend is allegedly anchored on the Ledger, which is believed to be doing all the heavy tasks behind the scenes. If such a link were to exist, it might represent a major advancement in the merging of decentralized technology with legacy finance.

Pumpius stated that this architecture has been quietly building underneath the surface for years, but the recent announcement from SWIFT brought it to the notice of the public and the crypto sector. 

The Token To Take Over Global Finance

With a growing role in finance, Pumpius has shared a few key points from Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz on why XRP will take over global finance and outpace stablecoins. As the sector evolves, the CTO claims that banks will choose XRP over stablecoins.

One of the reasons is that stablecoins are stable to one currency, futile for global deals across borders. Also, issuers like court orders and politics can freeze or seize them anytime. Lastly, unlike stablecoins, XRP’s price can grow and offer investors real upside potential.

The altcoin is purely decentralized, offers lightning-fast atomic settlement, and has near-zero fees. Other key factors include liquidity sourcing and bridge asset design, high scalability and energy efficiency, escrow functionality, etc. In search of true freedom, speed, and future value in the sector, the altcoin is one of the best bets.

Dogecoin Could Rally If Sell Wall Breaks

Crypto market analyst CW has highlighted a major sell wall around the $0.09 that could determine Dogecoin’s next bullish move. In an X post on Wednesday, the analyst noted that Dogecoin is already preparing to break through this key area, as its price tests $0.09 and holds this support level firmly. 

According to the analyst, if DOGE can push past this current support zone with strength, there may be no other resistance level strong enough to hold the meme coin until around $1.12. This means that CW expects the DOGE price to rise quickly toward this new high, representing a staggering increase of more than 1,144% from $0.09.  

The market expert noted that this price surge could come with a bullish trend reversal, likely confirming the end of Dogecoin’s prolonged downtrend. Notably, the analyst’s chart shows that the meme coin has been trading sideways within a descending channel since its price surge in September 2025. 

After rallying above the $0.25 area, Dogecoin has moved downward, previously crashing to this same critical support zone around $0.09 during the devastating October 2025 liquidation event. Although the meme coin rose back to normal levels, it remained range-bound inside this descending channel. With price showing strong breakout signals, CW has stated that once Dogecoin rises above this channel, its next major uptrend could begin in days. 

DOGE Breakdown Remains The Less Likely Scenario

In a separate X post, market analyst Osemka shared a price chart showing Dogecoin hovering around $0.09. He noted that the meme coin is currently trading in a tight range, with the price stuck between support and resistance. According to him, this behavior cannot last forever, suggesting that the DOGE price could soon make a strong move either upward or downward to break the critical area. 

Based on his chart analysis, Osemka appears cautiously bullish on Dogecoin. He said it would be a “little miracle” for Dogecoin to break downward, suggesting the more likely scenario is a strong rise above $0.09 soon. If this happens, it could completely invalidate DOGE’s bearish outlook and possibly trigger its next trend shift to the upside. 

As of now, the market is cautiously watching as DOGE trades around $0.091 at the time of writing, still trapped below both the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the descending channel.

The culprit is in the mining data. A CryptoQuant analysis examining the relationship between Miner Selling Power and Bitcoin’s price has identified a decoupling that began in the second half of 2025 and has been widening ever since. Historically, the two indicators moved in correlation — when Bitcoin price rose, miners’ selling power declined as profitability improved, and vice versa. That relationship has broken down entirely.

What the chart now shows is a divergence that runs in the wrong direction: Miner Selling Power is sharply rising while Bitcoin’s price falls. The miners who are supposed to benefit from a recovery are instead increasing their selling activity into weakness. That is not profit-taking. That is survival.

The connection to the stagnant hashrate data is direct and confirming. Miners are not expanding. They are not holding. They are selling — not because the market is giving them a reason to, but because the alternative is shutting down.

This Is Not Capitulation. It Is Something More Dangerous

The report’s conclusion reframes what is happening in the mining industry in a way that changes how the current Bitcoin market should be read. The word capitulation implies a single event — a moment of peak pain where the last forced sellers exit simultaneously, clearing the market and establishing a floor. What the Miner Selling Power data describes is not that. It is a continuous, sustained, survival-driven unloading that has no defined endpoint because its trigger is not sentiment — it is the ongoing gap between operating costs and revenue.

Miners facing a harsh profitability winter do not sell because they have lost conviction in Bitcoin. They sell because electricity bills, hardware maintenance, and facility costs arrive on a schedule that the Bitcoin price does not respect. Every week that production costs exceed mining revenue is another week of forced selling — regardless of where price stands, regardless of what the chart suggests, regardless of what the broader market is doing.

That persistence is what makes the current overhead so structurally significant. It is not a wall of supply waiting for the right price to clear. It is a drip of forced selling that the market must absorb continuously before any sustained upside can develop.

The analyst’s forward position is stated without ambiguity: upside potential remains limited until these survival-driven sell-offs are fully absorbed. Until that absorption is confirmed in the data, the conservative perspective is not caution — it is the only analytically defensible posture available.

Bitcoin Stalls Below Resistance as Downtrend Persists

Bitcoin is trading near $66,800, continuing to consolidate after the sharp February breakdown that disrupted its prior bullish structure. The chart shows a clear shift in trend, with price moving from a series of higher highs into a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, confirming sustained bearish pressure.

Following the capitulation event — marked by a significant spike in volume — BTC entered a range between approximately $62,000 and $72,000. Since then, price action has remained contained within this zone, but with a noticeable bias toward the lower end, suggesting weakening demand.

The 50-day and 100-day moving averages are both trending downward above price, acting as dynamic resistance and limiting any recovery attempts. The 200-day moving average remains far above current levels, reinforcing the broader structural shift from expansion to correction.

Recent rallies toward the $70,000–$72,000 region have consistently failed, producing lower highs and indicating that sellers are still active on strength. Volume has declined during consolidation, pointing to reduced participation and a lack of strong conviction from buyers.

Unless Bitcoin can reclaim key moving averages and break above range resistance with strength, the current structure favors continued consolidation or a potential move lower toward support.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

More Bitcoin Is Absorbed Than Being Mined

While price direction has been uncertain and unstable for the past few weeks, a growing imbalance is starting to take shape in the Bitcoin market. This imbalance focuses on institutions’ interests in BTC compared to new coins being mined.

On the X platform, a crypto investor known as AltCryptoGems has shared that institutional demand for BTC is rising at a substantial rate despite current unfavorable market conditions. Currently, public companies are scooping up more BTC faster than the rate at which miners are producing new coins.

As it continues to expand, this dynamic is strengthening the scarcity narrative of the flagship asset and reducing the amount of liquidity that is available. Such an imbalance could play a crucial role or act as a catalyst for the asset’s next price move. When large institutions accumulate, it is typically a clear sign of conviction in the asset’s long-term prospects.

The recently concluded month of March saw a wave of accumulation from these big public firms. In the month alone, the expert revealed that these companies collectively added over 47,000 BTC valued at approximately $3.14 billion at current price levels, to their balance sheets. Leading the charge is Michael Saylor’s Strategy, amassing over 44,377 BTC out of the net acquisition.

When compared to the prior month, this is significantly higher, as it saw over 29,590 BTC being scooped up by public institutions. This shows that institutional interest and demand in BTC nearly doubled within a monthly period. As for Bitcoin mining, only 13,950 BTC were mined during the same period, indicating that demand is currently clouding new supply into the market. 

BTC Exchange Balance Is Drying Up Pretty Fast

Despite persistent sideways price action and ongoing volatility, the underlying sentiment toward Bitcoin is turning quite bullish. Investors on cryptocurrency exchanges are steadily taking out their BTC from these platforms. Market expert Leon Waidmann reported that BTC balance on cryptocurrency exchanges is not sitting at its lowest level since 2018. 

After a period of steady withdrawals, the total supply of BTC left on exchanges is only 14.6%. From 2019 to 2022, the balance dropped to the 16% to 18% range, and then gradually continued bleeding throughout 2022. Now, 8 years later, the percentage has dropped to 14.6% as of April 2026.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency asset, has also witnessed a similar trend, with balances on exchanges now sitting at 11%, its lowest level in years. Both leading assets are at historic lows at the same time, making this period a crucial one for the market as it could notably shift sentiment.

The firm plans to roll out “Schwab Crypto” through its Premier Bank platform, enabling eligible customers to buy and sell Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) directly, according to disclosures on the company’s website.

Charles Schwab’s New Crypto Service 

Charles Schwab’s announcement makes clear that the new offering will not be open to everyone. The firm says not all applicants will qualify, and accounts will be available in every US state except New York and Louisiana. 

Company leadership has signaled a cautious, phased approach to the launch. CEO Rick Wurster told investors last month that Schwab will initially support only Bitcoin and Ethereum and is “extremely confident” in the technical work required to integrate crypto trading into its systems.

Charles Schwab’s CEO also described a staged rollout: the exchange will first test the platform internally with employees, then open access to a limited group of customers, and only after that offer the service broadly to its investor base. 

Launch Date And Fees Still Unknown

Until now, Charles Schwab investors seeking crypto exposure have had to rely on alternative products available through the broker. The firm already provides access to crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), crypto-related equities, Bitcoin futures, and listed options tied to spot Bitcoin ETPs.

Schwab Crypto would, if launched as described, mark a move into direct custody-and-trading services for the two largest digital assets. A few details remain unsettled. Schwab has not yet disclosed the exact launch date or the final fee structure for Schwab Crypto. 

Those decisions could be influenced by recent market conditions: falling prices in the cryptocurrency market may prompt the firm to delay its public rollout until conditions stabilize or until its testing phases are complete.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Google’s Latest Quantum Research Report Discusses XRP

In an X post, Cryptoinsight highlighted Google’s research report, which discussed XRP and the XRPL’s quantum efforts. He also noted that Google’s claim that 2/3 of the short-dated U.S. treasury bills are on the Ledger, while the majority of the remaining are on the Ethereum network. 

In the quantum report, Google noted that the Ledger is among the networks conducting experimental and test deployments of post-quantum cryptography (PQC). The Ledger recently deployed post-quantum ML-DSA signatures on the testnet. The report also recognized how this was key as the Ledger provides “extensive support” for RWA tokenization. 

RWA.xyz data shows that the XRP Ledger currently ranks 8th in terms of RWA tokenization, with a total tokenized value of $1.9 billion. The network boasts an RWA count of 289. Google noted that networks like the XRPL, which provide protocol-level support for RWA tokenization, introduce new quantum vulnerabilities not present in Bitcoin and its derivatives. 

This is based on the account model and smart contracts that networks like the Ledger employ to support tokenization. Google indicated that this quantum risk will become more prevalent. This is because of financial developments, such as fiat-backed stablecoins and the tokenization of other RWAs, which are projected to significantly increase the pool of assets governed by smart contracts by 2030. 

Another Quantum Risk For The Ledger And Other Networks

Google noted that the XRP Ledger is among the protocols that make long-term exposure of quantum-vulnerable public keys inevitable. However, Ledger has an edge as Google noted that the network, alongside Algorand and TRON, supports native, protocol-level key rotation. The research report added that modern Ethereum, Solana, and Rootstock accounts are controlled by smart wallets and support key rotation, but that legacy accounts remain a lingering vulnerability. 

Google stated that the technical and social complexities of switching blockchains to post-quantum signature schemes indicate that the process will take years. However, they noted that this move cannot be delayed until the exact timeline and feasibility of constructing Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQCs) become completely clear. 

At the same time, the report noted that the complexities and challenges are feasible to overcome, as networks such as the Ledger, Algorand, and Solana have demonstrated by making “notable progress” in real-world adoption of post-quantum cryptography. The Ledger also recently integrated AI to help identify vulnerabilities in the cycle development. 

At the time of writing, the altcoin’s price is trading at around $1.31, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin Traders Pile Into Shorts Amid Easter Caution

Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, has highlighted the aggressive caution in Bitcoin derivatives markets right now. Notably, leveraged short exposure through major Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has climbed sharply in recent sessions, reaching the second-highest level on record. This marks a 20% jump in just days, reflecting concentrated selling pressure from institutional and retail investors who are preparing for thinner trading volumes and liquidity during the Easter period. 

Lunde noted that such aggressive positioning typically occurs when sentiment turns very defensive, as people become more worried and fearful about current market conditions. He indicated that in the past, when similar behavior occurred, it often came right before the market changed direction, suggesting that this may be a bottoming signal. 

In addition to cautious sentiment, Lunde stated that funding rates in perpetual futures contracts have remained negative for more than a month, the longest streak since the brutal bear market in 2022. He suggested that persistent negative funding often indicates that shorts are paying longs to keep their positions open. He noted that this behavior could trigger a short squeeze if prices start rising and short traders rush to buy back their positions to avoid losses. 

Lunde also pointed out that the recent behavior of short traders, combined with Bitcoin approaching the Easter holiday at oversold levels, suggests that too many traders are expecting prices to fall. Because so many expect a drop, prices could rise suddenly once the holiday period ends and normal trading activity resumes.

What Easter And Geopolitics Mean For Long Or Shorts Bets

In the report, Lunde noted that Bitcoin has followed a predictable seasonal pattern around Easter for six straight years. During this holiday period, trading volumes drop noticeably and volatility compresses as big trading firms and banks in Europe get quieter or stop trading. 

However, the Bitcoin researcher highlights that this year might be different from past periods. He noted that the rising tensions in the Middle East might disrupt the usual quiet Easter trading period. Currently, there is a lot of talk and concern about oil facilities being at risk due to the ongoing conflict. As a result, investors are becoming more cautious even as they decide whether to go long or short. 

Based on the recent activities, two possible outcomes could emerge after the holidays. Because many traders are betting on prices falling, any major bad news could cause a sharp drop, especially when trading activity is low. However, when traders become extremely bearish, it often signals that sellers are exhausted and buyers may soon take over, signaling a possible trend shift. 

For The First Time, The Scale Moves In Crypto Prediction Markets’ Favor

As contradictory as it may sound, the Trump administration is trying to save crypto prediction markets from the State itself. The coordinated lawsuits the CFTC and the DOJ have filed against the three states argue that only the federal derivatives regulator can police prediction markets.

The @CFTC has clear and longstanding exclusive jurisdiction to regulate prediction markets. But recently, state regulators have tried to impose inconsistent and contrary obligations on CFTC-registered prediction markets. In response, the CFTC and @TheJusticeDept today filed three…

— Mike Selig (@ChairmanSelig) April 2, 2026

The lawsuits go as far as to claim the three states are bypassing the CFTC’s authority by trying to shut down “federally regulated DCMs” (designated contract markets). Regarding Illinois, the federal regulator said the state spent the past year issuing cease‑and‑desist letters to Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket, which the complaint argues are all under CFTC authority:

Illinois’s attempt to shut down federally regulated DCMs intrudes on the exclusive federal scheme Congress designed to oversee national swaps markets.

Related Reading: Crypto Traders On Edge As Korea Stalls Key Law — Is The “Kimchi Premium” At Risk Next?

Put simply, Washington says prediction markets are federally regulated derivatives. States insist, however, that prediction markets are just unlicensed gambling products harming local consumers.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig explained that this is not the first time states “have tried to impose consistent and contrary obligations on market participants”. Just this past month, a bipartisan Senate bill targeting sports‑style bets on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi was introduced by Senators Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT).

Also on March, democratic representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts (MA-06) formally banned all his staff from participating in prediction markets. That same day, Congressman Adrian Smith (R-NE-03) and Congresswoman Nikki Budzinski (D-IL-13) from Nebraska introduced the PREDICT Act, banning members of Congress from trading on political and policy outcome markets.

These are the first lawsuits by the CFTC to block state gaming regulators ​from policing operators of prediction markets, according to Reuters. The outlet also highlighted the fact that all the defendants are Democrats.

The CFTC’s lawsuits build on its recent push to assert “exclusive jurisdiction” over event contracts, including sports and politics, reversing the Biden‑era move that tried to ban broad categories of prediction markets.

Prediction markets are morphing into an information layer and hedging tool for traders, with liquidity increasingly coming from crypto‑native capital and exchange integrations.

A federal win would likely centralize rule‑making at the CFTC, potentially clearing a single regulatory path for crypto prediction platforms, but also tightening surveillance and enforcement. Conversely, if states prevail, platforms may face a patchwork of gambling rules that fracture liquidity, push some markets offshore, and raise operational risk premia for traders.

Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSD chart from Tradingview.

Token Surge Followed The Hoax

The scam began with a post from an account pretending to be veterinarian Joe Hollins, the real doctor who has cared for Jonathan on Saint Helena, a British territory in the South Atlantic.

The fake post (below) claimed the tortoise had died and pushed users toward a Solana memecoin tied to the story. Some news outlets initially amplified the false death claim before it was debunked.

Thank you all for the outpouring of love for Jonathan as we mourn his passing. Over the years as his vet, one of my favorite memories was watching him slowly make his way across the lawn at Plantation House on warm afternoons, completely unbothered by the passage of time.

Even…

— Nanoracks (@nanoracks) April 1, 2026

It says Jonathan is still alive! Who are you?,

— Becky S. () (@BeckySpooner1) April 1, 2026

Both the Governor of Saint Helena, Nigel Phillips, and the real Joe Hollins subsequently confirmed that Jonathan was still alive.

The setup was simple and fast. A trusted identity was copied, a sad story was posted, and crypto was added to the mix before many users had time to check the facts.

A crypto news site reported that the false account was used to promote donations and token buying, turning a strange animal story into a short-lived trading frenzy.

X Puts New Limits On Crypto Posts

The episode also drew a response from X. Nikita Bier, head of product at the platform, said the company was looking at new rules for users who mention crypto for the first time.

Under the plan he outlined, accounts could be locked and pushed through verification before posting. Bier said the goal was to strip away most of the reward scammers get from these schemes.

Yeah we’re aware.

We are in the process of implementing auto-locking + verification if a user posts about cryptocurrency for the first time in the history of their account.

This should kill 99% of the incentive, especially since Google isn’t doing shit to stop the phishing…

— Nikita Bier (@nikitabier) April 1, 2026

His remarks came as X faced another reminder of how quickly fake claims can move on the site. According to the report, the scam used phishing-style access and impersonation tactics that are already familiar in crypto fraud.

The difference here was the subject. Instead of a celebrity or politician, the hook was a tortoise known around the world for its age.

The Jonathan hoax was unusual in form, but not in method. Scammers often use anonymous or fake accounts to spread false promises and fake memecoins.

The report also pointed out that unauthorized tokens have been created around public figures before, including Sanae Takaichi and US President Donald Trump.

That pattern has a simple shape: grab attention, borrow trust, and add a token before the lie is exposed. In this case, the price spike was brief, the false death claim was exposed, and the tortoise at the center of it all remained alive.

Featured image from Gillian Moore/Alamy Stock Photo, chart from TradingView

Solana Suffered One Of The Largest Crypto Exploits In History

On April 1st, the DEX Drift Protocol suffered a major exploit that drained almost $300 million dollars in crypto assets from its core vaults. The exchange reported on it on its official X account as it was still undergoing:

Drift Protocol is experiencing an active attack. Deposits and withdrawals have been suspended. We are coordinating with multiple security firms, bridges, and exchanges to contain the incident. This is not an April Fools joke. We’ll provide additional updates from this account as… https://t.co/03SRPq4fHj

— Drift (@DriftProtocol) April 1, 2026

The raid unfolded in under 20 minutes, with roughly $286 million siphoned off across a basket of assets from close to 20 vaults. Drift is the largest decentralized perpetual futures exchange on Solana. This is the biggest crypto exploit seen so far in 2026 and ranks among the largest on record, edging out the $235 million WazirX breach.

Drift’s total value lock (TVL) collapsed from roughly $550 million to under $250 million after the attack. The team’s emergency response consisted of pausing deposits and withdrawals and coordinating with security firms and exchanges.

The protocol shared the details of the incident later on, claiming it was a “a highly sophisticated operation that appears to have involved multi-week preparation and staged execution”. Beyond that, the exchange’s official channels refrained from attributing responsibilities.

Earlier today, a malicious actor gained unauthorized access to Drift Protocol through a novel attack involving durable nonces, resulting in a rapid takeover of Drift’s Security Council administrative powers.

This was a highly sophisticated operation that appears to have involved…

— Drift (@DriftProtocol) April 2, 2026

Now, the analytics firm Elliptic has released an investigation claiming the on‑chain behavior, laundering methods, and network‑level indicators match the techniques seen in prior DPRK‑linked operations, making this not just another DeFi rug, but a suspected state‑sponsored attack.

Ledger CTO Charles Guillement also linked Drift’s attack method to Bybit’s $1.4 billion hack, which was attributed to North Korean hacking groups. NewsBTC’s sister website Bitcoinist reported on this yesterday.

Drift Protocol, one of the leading perpetual DEXs on Solana, has been hacked for approximately $213M. This makes it the biggest hack of 2026 so far, and one of the largest ever on the Solana blockchain, right behind the Wormhole Bridge exploit of 2022.

The full details of the…

— Charles Guillemet (@P3b7_) April 2, 2026

According to Elliptic, the attacker likely compromised Drift’s administrator private keys, gaining privileged control over withdrawals and key parameters. The attack systematically drained three main vaults: JLP Delta Neutral, SOL Super Staking and BTC Super Staking, including a single $41.7 million JLP transfer worth about $155 million.

Elliptic traced the stolen funds and concluded that the attacker created the wallet roughly eight days before the exploit and even received a small test transfer from a Drift vault. This suggests a pre‑planned, staged operation rather than a smash‑and‑grab.

After the exploit was completed, the attacker used Jupiter, a Solana DEX aggregator, to swap the stolen tokens into USDC, bridged funds to Ethereum, and then rotated into ETH and other assets across multiple wallets.

Such cross‑chain laundering patterns, obfuscation methods, and network‑level indicators match techniques seen in prior DPRK‑attributed attacks, Elliptic claims. If officially confirmed, this would be the 18th such operation with over $300 million stolen already.

Confirmed or not, there is no denying that state‑linked actors are systematically targeting liquidity‑rich crypto protocols to fund North Korea’s weapons programs. Let’s not forget that the North Korea‑affiliated Lazarus Group has funneled billions of dollars in stolen money through cryptocurrency networks.

Elliptic has already clustered all attacker‑linked token accounts on Solana and Ethereum so exchanges and protocols can screen against contaminated funds in near real time.

The hack will likely harden scrutiny of Solana DeFi governance, admin key design, and multisig security, even as the ecosystem continues to chase institutional‑grade perps liquidity.

Cover image from Perplexity. SOLUSD chart from Tradingview.

ETH/BTC Holds Range Lows As Selling Pressure Fades

The ETH/BTC 12-hour chart tells a story that has been unfolding since July 2025 and is now nearing a completion. The ETH/BTC chart shows a pair that has spent recent months grinding lower before finally reaching a support zone. As shown in the chart below, the ETH/BTC ratio has been in a sustained decline for the past few years from a peak near 0.0420 in mid-2025, which the analyst labels as wave 5 of a completed five-wave impulse. 

The ratio worked its way down through a series of lower highs and lower lows throughout the second half of 2025 and January 2026. However, it has been compressed between February and March into what looks like a macro support zone between approximately 0.02143 and 0.02626.

This support was noted by CrediBULL Crypto as being important in this context, with the analyst pointing out with confidence that the ETH/BTC pair is bottoming here and is in a final stage preceding a true breakout from the current range.

Ethereum/Bitcoin Chart. Source: @CredibleCrypto On X

Reclaim Of Range Could Cause A 20% Outperformance Move

The Elliott Wave labeling on the chart frames the current structure on the ETH/BTC pair as a (w)-(x)-(y) correction after the previous five-wave impulse that peaked in mid-2025. Wave (w) has played out in full, and the projection is a wave (x) move that should see the Ethereum price going on a 20% move up on the Bitcoin price.

The most important step in this projected move is reclaiming the previous range lows around 0.0308-0.031, which have now flipped into resistance. Failure to reclaim the level would likely delay this scenario, but the current price action has been characterized by repeated attempts to push higher.

Switching to the ETH/USD 30-minute chart, the analyst overlays a Wyckoff Accumulation schematic to the current price action. The Ethereum/USD chart complements the ETH/BTC outlook, showing price trading in a range just above $2,000. This is above a notable support level around the $1,900-$1,950 range, where multiple reactions have occurred.

Ethereum Price Chart. Source: @CredibleCrypto

There’s also a pink resistance zone above, which is around roughly $2,120 to $2,200. CrediBULL Crypto’s projection, illustrated by the green arrows, envisions a brief retest of support below $1,900 before an upside resolution that pushes the ETH price above the pink resistance zone to $2,400 and maybe higher.

Bitcoin’s Bearish Close And Its Implications

Pseudonymous crypto analyst Ming outlined what the bearish close actually means for the Bitcoin price. According to the post, this move shows that the bears are actually in charge and that the possibility of a lower decline is still very much in play.

Instead, the crypto analyst is looking at the Bitcoin price from the Higher Time Frame (HTF), putting the focus on the structure of the digital asset, as well as key levels that investors need to watch. Taking these in tandem, it could point to where the price is headed next.

The main level, the crypto analyst says, actually lies at around $58,900. This is interesting because the Bitcoin price has yet to hit this low since the decline began, making it an untapped monthly low. Therefore, whether or not the price ends up touching this level would be a great determinant of where Bitcoin is headed next.

What To Expect If Bears Break The Line

As already mentioned above, $58,900 is the next important level for Bitcoin, so it is imperative for bulls to hold above this level while the bears try to pull it down. In the case that the price breaks blow $58,900, then the analyst predicts that further decline are in view.

This is because a break of this level would lead to the formation of the Three Black Crows candlestick pattern. This is historically bearish and would lead to a bearish candle. Following previous performances, it could result in an over 30% decline.

However, in the event that the Bitcoin price does maintain above this level after sweeping it, then it would be bullish for the price. The analyst predicts that the cryptocurrency could end up moving back into the $71,300-$74,400 level as a result. But Minga explains that “There’s liquidity resting there on the LTF so another bearish retest of that area is still very much in play before continuation back to the downside.”

IMF Flags Limits Of Traditional Resolution Tools

In a note released by the IMF on Wednesday, tokenization is described as more than a technological innovation: it represents an institutional transformation. 

By converting money, securities, and derivatives into programmable digital tokens recorded on shared ledgers, tokenization changes how claims are created, moved, and settled, the IMF stated. 

That change, the note says, carries both the potential for efficiency gains and the risk of significant disruption to established regulatory and crisis‑management frameworks.

A central concern for the Fund is that tokenized finance does not fit neatly within the national, territorially bound legal and oversight structures that underpin current resolution regimes. 

Traditional crisis-management tools rely on jurisdictional control of institutions, infrastructures, and assets. In contrast, the IMF describes tokenized systems capable of executing transactions across multiple jurisdictions at “machine speed.” 

The IMF cautions that this could leave authorities with limited levers to contain stress when the critical control points in a tokenized environment may rest in governance keys, consensus mechanisms, or the logic of smart contracts rather than in nationally domiciled entities.

Five‑Point Roadmap To Tame ‘Tokenization Risks’

To address these alleged tokenization challenges, the IMF sets out what it calls a “coherent policy roadmap” built around five pillars that respond to the new allocation of trust and risk created by tokenized infrastructures. 

First, the Fund claims settlement should be anchored in safe forms of money: systemically important tokenized transactions must ultimately settle in assets that minimize credit and liquidity risk. 

Second, the IMF urges the adoption of global standards and recommendations for crypto markets consistent with the principle of “same activity, same risk, same regulatory outcome,” echoing prior IMF and Financial Stability Board work. 

Third, the Fund calls for legal certainty: they said legislators and courts should clarify the legal status of the tokenization sector, how ownership records are established, and when settlement becomes final, ensuring that legal frameworks evolve alongside technical deployment.

Fourth, the IMF recommends common standards for settlement expectations and finality, and cooperative oversight arrangements to prevent fragmentation and to manage cross‑border risks. 

Fifth, liquidity and crisis‑management frameworks must be adapted to a continuous, 24/7 automated environment; central banks and other authorities may need to develop new tools or operate directly within tokenized infrastructures to keep their policy instruments effective.

Taken together, the IMF argues, these measures would form the backbone of a stable and efficient tokenized financial system. Implementing the roadmap will require sustained and close cooperation between public authorities and private sector participants across jurisdictions, the Fund notes.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The litigation targets Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois — and in Illinois’ case, specifically names Governor J.B. Pritzker — after those states took steps the CFTC says improperly constrain or try to regulate contract markets that are registered with the agency.

CFTC Seeks Unified Regulation

In a statement announcing the legal action, the CFTC said event contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket fall squarely within the Commission’s remit under the Commodity Exchange Act. 

The agency argued that Congress intentionally established a unified national regulatory framework for commodity derivatives markets to prevent a fragmented patchwork of state rules that would, in the regulator’s view, undermine consumer protection and increase risks of fraud and manipulation. 

“The CFTC will continue to safeguard its exclusive regulatory authority over these markets and defend market participants against overzealous state regulators,” CFTC Chairman Mike Selig said in the release.

The suits mark the first time the regulator has resorted to litigation to press this point, reflecting mounting tension between federal and state officials over how to treat prediction markets. 

Congress Considers Tighter Prediction‑Market Curbs

The CFTC accused the named states of attempts to outlaw, limit, or otherwise interfere with the operations of designated contract markets (DCMs) that are registered with the Commission. 

Those state actions, the agency said, run contrary to the Commodity Exchange Act’s delegations and risk imposing inconsistent obligations on market participants. 

The regulator noted it recently issued an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to clarify the application of the CEA and CFTC regulations to prediction markets, and signaled it expects to follow through with formal rulemaking that will more explicitly define and reinforce its supervisory role.

The legal push comes as Capitol Hill and other institutions weigh tighter curbs on certain types of event contracts. A group of congressional Democrats last week introduced legislation that would ban prediction-market wagers on sensitive topics, including elections, war, and sports. 

Separately, Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton proposed a restriction banning congressional staff from using prediction markets, a measure believed to be unprecedented in Congress.

Pressure has also come from professional sports organizations. Sabrina Perel, the National Football League’s (NFL) chief compliance officer, wrote to prediction market operators — in a letter reviewed by CNBC — asking them to block event contracts she considered objectionable. 

The NFL has signaled that it believes sports-related contracts may warrant a distinct regulatory approach, an idea that mirrors the CFTC’s position that certain event contracts may need special attention.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Coinbase Wins Major OCC Approval

On Thursday, Coinbase announced it received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to charter Coinbase National Trust Company, marking a crucial step to becoming a federally regulated crypto custodian.

In the official statement, Coinbase outlined the scope of the charter, explaining that the company is not becoming a commercial bank and will not take retail deposits or engage in fractional reserve banking.

“This charter is about bringing federal regulatory uniformity to the custody and market infrastructure business we have been building for years. The OCC charter was designed precisely for this purpose — to provide clear oversight over assets in safekeeping — and that is exactly how we intend to use it,” the announcement read.

The conditional OCC approval allows Coinbase to “build the next chapter of finance,” the company noted, bolstered by the regulatory confidence, and validates its approach of “engaging with regulators, earning their trust, and operating to the highest standards.”

Moreover, the approval signals that the federal regulatory framework is transforming to align with the evolving landscape that crypto has been gradually shaping.

In an interview, Greg Tusar, Co-CEO of Coinbase Institutional, affirmed that “the ability to have a federal framework for our custody business is important,” adding that “this is about us growing our reach and being able to conduct new business that we may not have been able to before.”

Crypto Trust Banks Face Opposition

Coinbase applied for the charter last October and has now joined the list of firms that have received the main banking regulator’s approval. As reported by Bitcoinist, the OCC approved conditional bank charters for Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Paxos, and Fidelity in December.

In February, stablecoin platform Bridge, owned by Stripe, and crypto exchange Crypto.com announced they had also secured the OCC’s conditional approval to establish a national trust bank. However, US banks have raised concerns that the approvals could blur the lines between banking activities and lead to regulatory arbitrage.

Nearly two months ago, the American Bankers Association (ABA) asked the banking regulator to postpone its review of applications for crypto bank charters, suggesting that the approvals should wait until key regulatory uncertainties are resolved.

In its letter, ABA called for patience as emerging regulatory frameworks take shape, proposing that the review process continue when the US Congress completes the rules that will ultimately govern many recent applicants for the OCC’s charter.

The banking lobby cited uncertainty surrounding emerging business models, the need for increased transparency in the charter application and decision-making processes, and the absence of finalized federal oversight as key reasons for the proposed delay.

US Senator Elizabeth Warren also sent a letter to Comptroller Jonathan Gould asking the banking regulator to pause its review of the Trump Family’s main crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, which applied for a national trust charter in January.

Bitcoin Mining Company Riot Has Moved Another 500 BTC

As shared by on-chain sleuth Lookonchain in an X post, Riot Platforms has made a transfer away from its Bitcoin wallet during the past day. In total, this transaction involved 500 BTC, worth $34.13 million at the time that the move took place.

The destination of the move was an unknown wallet, so it’s not possible to say for sure what the intent behind it was, but it’s likely that it was for selling the tokens. Previously, the company offloaded $200 million worth of Bitcoin during the final months of 2025.

Riot is a public Bitcoin mining company based in the United States that holds the BTC that it mines as a treasury asset. In terms of computing power or Hashrate, the firm is among the largest miners in the world, according to data from BitcoinMiningStock.

From the table, it’s visible that Riot Platforms has a total installed Hashrate of 38.50 exahashes per second (EH/s), putting it number five on the list of the largest public mining companies.

Like other big miners, Riot has also been exploring the AI/high-performance computing (HPC) business. As such, it’s possible that the new Bitcoin sale is linked to this expansion.

Before the outflow transaction, Riot Platforms held a total of 18,005 BTC in its treasury, but if the sale is confirmed, that figure would reduce to 17,505 BTC. The miner is currently ranked seventh among the public Bitcoin treasury firms.

BTC Mining Difficulty Is Set To Jump On Friday

The Bitcoin network is approaching its next mining Difficulty adjustment and according to data from CoinWarz, the change is expected to be a green one. The “Difficulty” refers to a feature built into the BTC blockchain that controls how hard miners would find it to mine blocks on the network.

This metric automatically changes its value about every two weeks depending on blockchain conditions since the last adjustment. The BTC network targets a block time of 10 minutes, so if miners mine a block in an average interval faster/slower than this, the chain raises/eases its Difficulty just enough to counteract the change.

Since the previous adjustment, BTC has seen an average block time of 9.60 minutes, which is faster than expected. Therefore, the network will increase its Difficulty by about 4.17% to slow the miners back down to the intended rate.

BTC Price

Bitcoin made some recovery earlier in the week, but the coin has declined again as its price is floating around $66,100.

Extradition From Phnom Penh

Li Xiong, former chairman of Huione Group, was flown from Cambodia’s capital to China on April 1 after a task force from China’s Ministry of Public Security coordinated the transfer with Cambodian officials.

He now faces fraud and money-laundering charges. Hong Kong-based outlet Ta Kung Wen Wei first reported the development, citing a statement from the Ministry posted on WeChat.

Xiong’s arrest follows Chen Zhi’s by about three months, suggesting Chinese law enforcement has been working through the syndicate’s leadership in stages.

Arrested and released within hours back in January. Two months later, Li Xiong has been extradited to China. CCTV is calling him a core member of Chen Zhi’s criminal gang. Chen Zhi was extradited in January too. https://t.co/Y9pYI30Ysp pic.twitter.com/xHSY6NvYFX

— Jacob in Cambodia (@jacobincambodia) April 1, 2026

Huione Group operated as the financial backbone for scam operations spread across Southeast Asia. These included so-called “pig butchering” schemes — long-con frauds where criminals build fake online relationships with victims before draining their savings through fake investment platforms.

The group processed over $89 billion in crypto assets, according to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic, making it one of the largest illicit financial operations ever documented.

A Network Built On Stolen Crypto

The syndicate’s reach extended well beyond Cambodia. Victims around the world lost money to scam centers that funneled proceeds through Huione’s infrastructure.

In October, the US Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network cut Huione Group off from the American banking system entirely, ordering US financial institutions to close any accounts or payment channels linked to the group. That move effectively froze the network’s access to dollar-denominated finance.

Around the same time, the US Department of Justice announced it had seized 127,271 Bitcoin connected to Chen Zhi. At current values, that haul exceeds $15 billion — one of the largest crypto seizures in history.

Chinese officials are not done. Ta Kung Wen Wei reported that several other members of the syndicate have already been brought to justice. Officials issued a public warning to anyone still at large, urging them to turn themselves in and cooperate in exchange for more lenient treatment.

“Public security authorities will continue to intensify efforts to capture fugitives,” the outlet quoted officials as saying.

The message was blunt: the window to surrender is open, but it will not stay open long. With two of the group’s top figures now in Chinese custody and its finances cut off from the US banking system, what remains of the Huione network appears to be running out of room.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

Crypto Framework Postponed In A Time Of Need

The Korean outlet Maeil Business Newspaper reported uncertainty in the crypto industry deepening after the National Policy Committee excluded the Framework Act on Digital Assets from the 31st of March agenda.

Lawmakers sent five finance-related bills to the subcommittee that day: the Framework Act on Administrative Regulation, the Credit Information Protection Act, the Microfinance Support Act, the Insurance Business Act, and the Capital Markets Act. Not a single bill related to crypto was included, but the Political Affairs Committee’s plenary session received Representative Kim Nam-geun’s “Partial Amendment to the Act on the Protection of Virtual Asset Users, etc.” and forwarded it to the Bill Review Subcommittee.

Lawmakers opted to park the second‑phase bill during a sensitive election window rather than ram through divisive provisions on banks and exchange tycoons, which have become “core landmines” in the legislative process. Speculation in Korean political coverage suggest that the presidential office and the Financial Services Commission (FSC) are not fully aligned on how far to push ownership caps and how tightly to ring‑fence stablecoin issuance, adding to the deadlock narrative.

The proposed crypto framework comes at a time of major importance, as the aforementioned political disagreements also happen to be the two key fights occurring between major players in the Korean cryptocurrency and financial industry.

South Korea has recently seen a tug‑of‑war between The Bank of Korea and the FSC over who gets to issue won‑denominated stablecoins.

The BOK is pushing for a bank‑led consortium model where commercial banks must hold at least 51% of any issuer of won‑denominated stablecoins. Bitcoinist reported this on October last year.

The FSC, however, accepts that stablecoins need strict safeguards but opposes a hard 51% bank‑ownership rule, warning it would lock out tech platforms, fintechs and exchanges that actually build the user‑facing products.

These stablecoin-issuers rules are to be hard‑wired under the Digital Asset Basic Act, so every month of delay leaves existing and would‑be KRW stablecoin issuers operating in a gray zone or stuck on the sidelines. According to local outlet Aju Economy, this is a real and concerning issue for the industry. They reported on and industry insider lament:

We need the bill to be finalized quickly to determine our business direction, but currently, we are keeping all possibilities open, which is only increasing the cost burden.

The FSC has been backing proposals to treat big crypto exchanges more like securities or ATS‑style markets, where no single “same person” can own beyond roughly 15–20% in principle. After heavy pushback, regulators and the ruling party have coalesced around a 20% ceiling for “major shareholders”, with a narrow exception that allows stakes up to 34% for new entrants, mirroring the 33.3% veto line in Korea’s Commercial Act. Bitcoinist covered the story at the beginning of the past month.

For existing giants like Upbit and Bithumb, this is a post‑facto rule. Founders and early backers already hold stakes well above 20%, so a hard cap would force them to sell down significant portions of their equity over a three‑year transition (six years for some smaller exchanges). This could potentially disrupt ongoing M&A and reshape control of the local market.

South Korea seems ready to move from ad‑hoc crackdowns to a comprehensive crypto regime. This delay comes on top of recent moves from Seoul to step up oversight with strategies such as AI surveillance, manipulation probes and tax tracking, and to loosen some restrictions, like easing earlier exchange‑stake proposals and reconsidering corporate crypto trading.

Near term, rule uncertainty around KRW stablecoins and exchange ownership could keep Korean venues’ risk premia high and make local listing or market‑making plans harder to model. Post‑election, a bank‑heavy stablecoin framework plus tighter governance rules could favor well‑capitalized incumbents and banks over smaller, high‑beta platforms. This could reshape liquidity and altcoin listings.

Lawmakers watering down ownership caps or opening up stablecoin issuance beyond banks would be a clear risk‑on signal for KRW‑denominated products and for global firms eyeing Korea’s retail base.

Cover image from Perplexity. BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview.

A Case Built On Worst-Case Scenarios

In a report published Tuesday, BPI research fellow Jacob Langenkamp made the case that Taiwan should build a national Bitcoin reserve — not mainly as a financial play, but as protection against the possibility of a Chinese military blockade or invasion.

His argument is simple: if China cuts Taiwan off, gold cannot be moved and dollar reserves can be frozen. Bitcoin, he wrote, requires no physical transport and remains accessible regardless of what happens on the ground.

Taiwan’s central bank had already looked at the idea and walked away from it. In December, the bank concluded that Bitcoin was too volatile, too hard to store safely, and too thin in liquidity to serve as a reserve asset.

It pointed to the US dollar as the more sensible option. Langenkamp acknowledged those concerns are real — but argued they can be solved with the right institutional know-how on custody and risk management.

The Dollar Problem Analysts Say Taiwan Is Ignoring

The report’s broader warning centers on how exposed Taiwan already is to the US dollar. At least 80% of the central bank’s reserves are held in dollar-denominated assets, and most of its trade runs through the same currency.

Langenkamp listed several pressures that could erode the dollar’s value over time — rising US government debt, Federal Reserve money expansion, a possible downturn in AI-sector valuations, and shrinking semiconductor revenues.

Bitcoin, he argued, could pair with gold to offer a buffer against those risks, giving Taiwan’s central bank a hedge before other countries make the same move.

Taiwan’s central bank did not fully close the door after its December decision. Officials said the bank would continue testing digital asset technology through a sandbox program, using crypto the country already holds.

The 210 Bitcoin figure came from lawmaker Ko Ju-Chun, who disclosed it on social media last year. According to data from crypto treasury tracker BitBo, those holdings — if officially counted — would rank Taiwan seventh among nations holding Bitcoin, just behind El Salvador and ahead of Finland. The country is not currently listed in BitBo’s national reserve rankings.

Whether Taiwan’s government acts on the BPI report remains to be seen. The think tank has no formal role in Taiwanese policy, and the central bank’s position has not changed.

But the report adds a new dimension to the global debate over Bitcoin as a state-level asset — one that goes beyond economics and into the question of what a country does when access to its own money is at risk.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Analyst Axel Adler has published on-chain findings that place the current Bitcoin environment in precise historical context. The 7-day moving average of Net Realized Profit and Loss has reached -$410 million as of early April — a deterioration of $154 million in a single week. That acceleration matters as much as the level: loss-selling pressure is not holding steady; it is deepening. Across March and into April, the metric has remained in sustained negative territory, confirming that sellers are consistently exiting positions below their cost basis.

The quarter’s range tells the full story of the reversal. On January 19th, the same metric registered +$394 million — net profit-taking at scale. By February 7th it had collapsed to -$1.99 billion, the deepest single reading of Q1. The current -$410 million represents a re-intensification after a brief stabilization.

The critical detail is the bear market comparison. From October 2025 through March 2026, cumulative realized losses stand at -$64.2 billion — roughly half the -$125.2 billion accumulated during the entire 2021-2022 bear market. The pressure is real. It is not yet existential.

The Behavior Matches the Losses. That Is the Problem.

Adler’s second indicator adds a dimension that the Net Realized P/L metric cannot capture alone. The Short-Term Holder SOPR — measuring the average ratio between the sale price and acquisition price of coins held less than 155 days — has held below 1.0 for nine consecutive days. A reading below 1.0 means short-term holders are selling at a loss. Nine straight days means it is not an episode. It is a regime.

Historically, a prolonged SOPR stress regime of this kind resolves in one of two ways. Either price stabilizes, loss-selling exhausts itself, and the indicator gradually recovers above 1.0 — the pattern associated with bottoming and early recovery. Or price pressure persists, the cohort continues to capitulate, and the market enters a new leg lower. The data does not currently indicate which outcome is forming. It indicates that the stress is active, sustained, and has not yet shown the first sign of resolution.

That first sign has a precise definition. A confident return of the 7-day moving average above 1.0 — and critically, a sustained hold above that level — is the signal Adler identifies as the minimum confirmation that the stress regime is ending rather than pausing.

Taken together, the Net Realized P/L and STH SOPR confirm the same verdict from two different angles. Dollar losses are intensifying. Cohort behavior is systemically loss-driven. The pressure is real and measurable. What it is not — and this distinction matters — is the panic extreme that has historically characterized the final capitulation phase of a bear market. That phase produces readings far more severe than anything visible in the current data.

Bitcoin Consolidates Below Resistance as Bearish Structure Holds

Bitcoin is trading near $66,000 after failing to sustain a recovery above the $70,000 level, reinforcing a broader structure that remains tilted to the downside. The chart shows a clear breakdown in February, followed by a high-volume capitulation event that established the current trading range between approximately $62,000 and $72,000.

Since then, price action has been defined by consolidation rather than recovery. Bitcoin continues to print lower highs within this range, signaling that sellers are still active on rallies. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages are both trending downward above price, acting as dynamic resistance and capping upward momentum. The 200-day moving average remains significantly higher, confirming that the longer-term trend has weakened.

Volume behavior supports this interpretation. The initial sell-off was accompanied by a sharp spike in volume, suggesting forced liquidations or aggressive distribution. In contrast, the current consolidation phase shows reduced volume, indicating a lack of strong demand to drive a reversal.

Repeated rejections near the upper bound of the range highlight the absence of conviction from buyers. Until Bitcoin can reclaim key moving averages and break above resistance with strength, the structure favors continued consolidation or a potential retest of lower support levels.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Why Dogecoin Is A “Weak” Altcoin Now

Crypto market expert @ColinTCrypto has taken to X to share his bearish forecast for the DOGE price and why he believes the meme coin can still crash. In his post, the analyst described Dogecoin as a weak altcoin and warned that investors should not hold it right now. 

The analyst shared a chart showing Dogecoin trading at around $0.09. The chart traces the meme coin’s price movement from its 2021 peak to the present. After its explosive surge during the last bull market, DOGE mostly traded sideways, with occasional short-lived rallies, while the overall trend remained volatile and in a gradual decline. 

@ColinTCrypto has noted that this downward trend has culminated in the formation of the white triangle on the chart. He stated that Dogecoin has already fallen to its first critical support zone around $0.09. The analyst noted that the meme coin is showing strong signs of breaking down further, potentially hitting new lows.

Based on the downward trajectory of the white arrow on the chart, @ColinTCrypto predicts that Dogecoin could experience a major price correction to $0.073. At the time of writing, the meme coin is trading at $0.09, holding onto this support firmly, as a breakdown could confirm the analyst’s bearish outlook. Although market dynamics remain volatile, it’s still uncertain whether Dogecoin could crash toward $0.073. However, if it does, DOGE’s value would decline by almost 20%. 

Notably, @ColinTCrypto stated that most major altcoins in the market are showing similarly bearish positions. He highlighted that they are on the verge of further breakdowns as broader market sentiment remains weak. The analyst also attributes the current bearishness to a risk-off environment, meaning investors are actively avoiding risky bets and favoring safer options amid persistent geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty. 

Analysts Share Similar Bearish Sentiments

Other analysts are also watching Dogecoin’s price movements and raising concerns about a potential crash in the near future. Market expert Osemka on X stated that there is no more room left for altcoins to run, indicating that Dogecoin and other meme coins could soon break downwards. 

The analyst noted in an earlier post that Dogecoin has been “getting slammed” by the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the past three weeks, reinforcing his bearish outlook that the cryptocurrency is on the verge of another decline.

Bitcoin Whales Have Seen A Large Negative Yearly Netflow

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant has discussed the latest trend in the yearly netflow of the Bitcoin whales, who are investors carrying between 1,000 and 10,000 tokens of the cryptocurrency. At the current exchange rate, the lower end of the cohort’s range converts to $66.4 million and the upper one to $664 million. As such, the only holders who would qualify for the group would be those with a significant amount of capital.

Because of their position on the network, the behavior of the whales can often be worth keeping an eye on, as it may sometimes carry implications for the market. Even when it doesn’t, it can still be revealing about the sentiment among BTC’s most influential investors.

Now, here is the chart shared by CryptoQuant that shows the trend in the 1-year change in the Bitcoin whale supply, as well as its 365-day moving average (MA), over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin whales saw a mostly positive 1-year change between late 2023 and mid-2025. In the back half of 2025, however, things began to change for these humongous entities, with their netflow slipping into the red zone.

From the chart, it’s visible that the shift in the 1-year change of whale holdings came ahead of BTC’s all-time high (ATH) above $126,000. This could be a potential sign that some large entities anticipated the forthcoming change of winds in the market.

After BTC saw its November drawdown, the whale netflow dropped to a highly negative value, reflecting aggressive distribution from the group. In 2026, the indicator initially saw recovery, with the February crash even coinciding with a change to slight net buying from the whales, but since then, its value has again plunged back into the negative territory.

Today, the 1-year change in the Bitcoin whale holdings is sitting at -188,000 BTC. Thus, it would appear that whales are participating in significant distribution. “This isn’t short-term,” noted the analytics firm. “The 365D trend is declining, signaling structural selling pressure.”

In some other news, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, in its latest weekly report, has pointed out how a notable amount of supply currently has a cost basis above $80,000. BTC has recently been trading below this level, so all these coins have been underwater.

After all the bearish price action, these loss holders have two choices: either sell into relief rallies to minimize losses or risk capitulating on further drawdowns. Glassnode explained:

Resolving this overhang will likely require either a meaningful price discount to attract new buyers or an extended period of time for these coins to migrate from loss-realizing hands into more committed ownership.

BTC Price

Bitcoin recovered above $69,000 on Wednesday, but the coin has already retraced this surge as it’s now back at $66,400.

In a recent research blog post, Google said the quantum resources needed to attack the elliptic curve cryptography used across cryptocurrencies may be far lower than older estimates suggested, and it may be time for blockchain projects, especially Bitcoin, to take action against this impending risk.

Google’s Warning Puts Bitcoin’s Cryptography At Risk

Google’s warning is based on elliptic curve cryptography, which is the system that facilitates ownership and transaction signing across Bitcoin and many other digital assets. Every Bitcoin transaction relies on a cryptographic system called the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem, or ECDLP-256. It is the mathematical lock that protects wallet ownership and transaction integrity across the Bitcoin network. 

The consensus view held that breaking Bitcoin’s cryptographic system would require a quantum machine of extraordinary scale on the order of millions of qubits. However, researchers at Google have demonstrated that the computational threshold for a successful attack on a cryptographic system like Bitcoin’s is far lower than the industry had priced in.

Researchers at Google compiled two optimized quantum circuits that implement Shor’s algorithm against ECDLP-256. Based on the coverage of the blog post by Google’s research team, the company’s updated estimate pointed to roughly 1,200 to 1,450 logical qubits and fewer than 500,000 physical qubits for a relevant attack, with execution measured in minutes on a sufficiently advanced machine. This is an approximately 20-fold reduction in the number of physical qubits required to solve ECDLP-256.

What’s Next For Bitcoin And The Crypto Industry?

The problem is not just that quantum machines may become powerful enough one day to attack the Bitcoin blockchain. It is also that the resources needed to expose the network may be far less than many crypto participants assume. There is no need to panic, as the issue is not here yet. However, it is also no longer easy to dismiss as something for the far future.

Google’s wider quantum-security messaging now points to a 2029 migration timeline for post-quantum cryptography. The company noted that it is now working with others on responsible approaches, like Coinbase, the Stanford Institute for Blockchain Research, and the Ethereum Foundation. 

The most efficient way to mitigate these risks is transitioning blockchains to post-quantum cryptography (PQC), which is resistant to quantum attacks. However, the 2029 timeline also comes with the concern that the crypto industry may have a small preparation time. Transitioning a decentralized blockchain network to new cryptographic standards requires consensus across thousands of independent nodes, protocol-level upgrades, and compatibility solutions that can take years to design, test, and deploy. This is most likely where the controversial parts of the transition will happen.

An Arab Chain report tracking market depth on Binance has identified a condition that makes the current support test more precarious than it appears on the surface: XRP’s 30-day liquidity index has dropped to approximately 0.062 — one of its lowest readings in recent periods. That number describes a market where buy and sell orders have become significantly less dense. The cushion that normally absorbs price swings without amplifying them has been removed.

What that means in practical terms is straightforward and should not be understated. When liquidity is deep, large trades are absorbed without dramatically moving the price. When liquidity is thin — as it is now — the same trade produces a sharper, faster, more violent response. The market has not become more dangerous because sentiment has shifted. It has become more dangerous because the infrastructure that manages price impact has deteriorated.

XRP is holding support in a market that has lost much of its shock-absorbing capacity. Those two facts belong in the same sentence — because they are the same problem.

The Market Is Not Just Thin. It Is Empty. And Empty Markets Move Fast When They Fill.

The report adds the dimension that completes the structural picture. XRP’s 30-day turnover index currently stands at approximately $4.46 billion — a figure that reflects not just reduced liquidity in the order book but reduced capital flow through the market entirely. Both institutional and retail participation have withdrawn simultaneously.

The order book is thin, and the volume flowing through it has declined in tandem. That combination — shallow depth and low activity — describes a market that has been effectively abandoned by the participants who would normally provide its stability.

The risk this creates is asymmetric and immediate. In a liquid, high-turnover market, large trades are absorbed gradually. In the current environment, the same trade size produces a disproportionate price response in whichever direction it pushes. The market has no buffer. Every significant order becomes a market-moving event by default.

The report identifies the constructive interpretation alongside the risk, and both deserve equal weight. Periods of compressed liquidity and low turnover have historically preceded significant price movements — not because thin markets are bullish, but because they are unstable. When capital returns to a market this empty, the price response is rarely gradual.

The XRP market is not waiting for a catalyst. It is waiting for volume. When that volume arrives — from whichever direction — the thin order book will amplify whatever it brings.

XRP Holds Fragile Range as Downtrend Persists

XRP is trading near $1.30 after a prolonged decline that has steadily weakened its market structure. The chart shows a clear downtrend, with price consistently printing lower highs and lower lows since late 2025. The sharp breakdown in February marked a decisive shift, pushing XRP into a lower range where it continues to consolidate.

Since that move, price has been confined between roughly $1.20 and $1.50, reflecting a temporary balance but not a reversal. XRP remains below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both sloping downward and acting as resistance on every recovery attempt. The 200-day moving average sits significantly higher, reinforcing the broader bearish trend.

Volume dynamics highlight the imbalance. The February sell-off was accompanied by a strong spike in volume, suggesting aggressive distribution or forced liquidations. In contrast, the current consolidation phase shows declining volume, indicating weaker participation and limited buying conviction.

Attempts to push toward $1.50 have repeatedly failed, with sellers stepping in before any structural breakout can develop. The market is stabilizing, but without reclaiming key moving averages, that stability remains fragile. As long as XRP trades below these levels, the path of least resistance continues to favor either extended consolidation or another move lower.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Persistent Selling Activity Weighs on Bitcoin

While the Bitcoin price is moving sideways, investors are steadily reacting negatively to the performance. During the period of indecision, selling pressure is persistently building underneath the surface, suggesting growing uncertainty among investors.

According to the report from CryptoQuant, a leading on-chain data analytics platform, the selling pressure is being driven by major BTC players rather than retail holders. The constant distribution from key market players raises the possibility that underlying sentiment is more brittle than it seems.

CryptoQuant’s report began with the Bitcoin Spot Demand, which remains in deep contraction despite accelerating Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) and Strategy purchases. After examining the 30-day apparent demand, the platform highlighted that the chart is showing a positioning at -63,000 BTC, indicating that broader market selling pressure is still outweighing institutional accumulation.

At the same time, large Bitcoin investors or whales holding between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC have turned net distributors. This wave of selling is indicated on the 1-year change in whale holdings, which has declined from +200,000 BTC to -188,000 BTC today. 

Currently, this is one of the most aggressive large-holder distribution cycles on record, spanning between the 2024 bull market peak and March 2026. As selling activity reaches this level, the trend is likely to influence the asset’s price, potentially causing a more decisive move lower.

The selling pressure from large holders has been accompanied by fading accumulations from mid-tier holders and dolphin investors.  Bitcoin mid-tier players holding between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC are accumulating at a declining pace since November 2025.

During this period, dolphins have been the net accumulators on a 1-year basis. However, their holdings growth has collapsed from 1 million BTC in October 2025 to 429,000 BTC today, signaling that buying support from this group is fading quickly.

BTC Demand Is Dying In The US Markets

CryptoQuant has also covered the demand for BTC in the United States. On the US market, demand for the asset has weakened, with Coinbase Premium persistently trending in negative territory. Despite Bitcoin prices declining to the $65,000-$70,000 range, investors in the US have not re-entered the market at scale, a behavior that is consistent with the broader demand contraction observed across on-chain metrics.

Bitcoin may be seeing fading demand and continued sell-side activity, but CryptoQuant claims that a short-term price bounce toward the $71,500 to $81,200 is still likely if macroeconomic risks ease. These levels align with the Lower Band and Trader On-Chain Realized Price, respectively, which are important bear market resistance zones that might be put to the test if the US-Iran dispute lessens.

XRP Makes History With ZK Privacy Transactions 

In an X post, Pumpius stated that history has been made with XRP, with the first-ever zero-knowledge (ZK) privacy transaction going live on the XRPL testnet. The pundit declared that this is about to change everything for XRP, signaling that it could boost the token’s adoption as institutional investors seek privacy. 

He noted that the DNA Protocol is responsible for these ZK privacy transactions on the Ledger. The protocol is said to have turned real-world data into a ZK proof, verified on-chain with zero sensitive information exposed. Pumpius added that banks, governments, and institutions can now confirm everything, including KYC, medical records, financials, and compliance, without ever seeing the actual data. 

Pumpius further remarked that the DNA protocol is the privacy layer the Ledger has been missing and that the “floodgates are opening,” with trillions of dollars set to flow into the altcoin The pundit declared that the XRPL has just become institutionally ready. It is worth noting that Ripple has also made moves to implement privacy features natively on the Ledger. 

These features include Permissioned Domains, Permissioned DEX, and Confidential Multi-Purpose Tokens (CMPTs), which enable institutions to select the network participants they want to transact with and protect their identities during transactions. Specifically, CMPTs hide the account balances and transaction amounts of network users. This is expected to onboard more institutions, especially as tokenization gains traction on the Ledger. 

Ripple Exec Explains What Decentralized Identity Entails

Crypto pundit John Squire drew attention to a video in which Ripple President Monica Long explained what decentralized identities entail and how Ripple aims to achieve them using zero-knowledge proofs. She explained that decentralized identities would enable individuals to take back control of their identities from web2 companies that profit from their data. 

Monica Long revealed that these decentralized identities would take the form of a transportable token that can be shared with anyone around the world. Users will be able to delegate access, enabling anyone to access this information as needed. 

John Squire noted that this means even one’s DNA can be tokenized as a private, portable token on the XRP Ledger using zero-knowledge proofs. He added that people would be able to prove their identities without revealing anything. He also signaled how this is bullish for the token as it would boost the token’s utility as individuals embrace privacy features. 

At the time of writing, the altcoin’s price is trading at around $1.31, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin Emerges As Hedge Amid Unstoppable Debt Crisis

During the podcast, James Lavish highlighted the growing global unease, noting that the World Uncertainty Index has reached a historic high above 105,000. This means it is now higher than levels seen during COVID, 9/11, the Iraq war, and the global financial crisis combined. 

Lavish explained that the US Treasury is facing a major financial burden this year, with about $9.7 trillion in debt set to mature. When combined with ongoing budget deficits of roughly $2 trillion, the total amount that needs refinancing rises to a staggering $12 trillion. He pointed out how sensitive this debt is to interest rates, noting that even a half-point increase would add about $100 billion to annual interest payments on the debt. 

Despite how bad this appears, he warned that “this train cannot be stopped.” The strategist suggested that the relentless, ongoing cycle of rising US debt and constant refinancing will likely continue due to limited options available to policymakers. He added that these limitations could leave officials relying heavily on monetary measures to manage the situation. 

Weisberger also shared his view, noting that despite the chaos and the surmounting debt crisis, the government will continue printing substantial amounts of money to manage the economic situation. With more money flowing into the market, it could affect the nominal value of assets priced in dollars, yen, or euros. 

Speaking on Bitcoin’s role during this critical period, Weisberger pointed out that BTC was created for economies affected by heavy debt and currency manipulation. His remarks align with the broader view that Bitcoin could serve as a hedge against inflation, a strategic reserve, and a store of value during a global financial crisis. 

The CoinRoutes CEO also noted that Bitcoin may have finally reached a price bottom at $60,000, referring to the crash from above $70,000 in February, when geopolitical tensions in the Middle East surged. 

A Cautious Outlook On Bitcoin’s Price Rally

Compared to his fellow panelist on the podcast, McGlone’s comments focused mostly on Bitcoin, oil prices, and the performance of other asset classes. He argued that the Bitcoin bull market has ended, while precious metals’ performance appears to have slowed.

The Bloomberg Senior Strategist also warned that sharp spikes in oil prices could trigger a drop in demand, potentially leading to a global recession. He also noted that the S&P 500 is currently overpriced and if it breaks down, Bitcoin and other risk assets could decline alongside it.

On the other hand, Weisberger’s overall outlook for Bitcoin was cautiously bearish. He noted that if Strategy had not been aggressively buying Bitcoin even during the bear market, the cryptocurrency might have fallen as low as $40,000-$50,000. He shared the same sentiment for Ethereum, noting that without Bitmine’s accumulation, its price could have crashed to $600. 

Ripple Prime was formed after Ripple acquired Hidden Road for around $1.2 billion late last year and operates as the clearing and intermediation arm for exchange‑traded derivatives (ETD) and related financing activities. 

Reasons Behind Ripple Prime’s BBB Score 

Kroll’s analysis emphasizes that Ripple Prime is in a scaling phase. The company’s ETD platform, launched in 2024, and its fixed‑income repo activities — which reached meaningful scale in 2025 and are concentrated in short‑duration US Treasuries and agency securities — are central to the rating. 

The agency pointed to an expanded balance sheet over the past year and noted that Ripple Prime achieved profitability in 2025. That performance was supported by significant capital injections from its parent, Ripple Labs: roughly $500 million following the acquisition. 

Kroll observed that while Ripple Prime’s activities are more narrowly focused than some peers, management’s experience and a clear strategy to broaden the platform through new business lines and added hires underpin the rating.

A key factor in Kroll’s view is the parent‑company support Ripple provides. The report highlights Ripple’s capital resources — nearly $5.0 billion in cash as of the third quarter 2025, along with more than 40 billion units of XRP on the balance sheet — which offer a substantial, though largely unrealized, source of value. 

Kroll said that, should Ripple Prime issue debt and encounter regulatory or liquidity constraints that limited dividends from the operating company, Ripple would likely step in to provide financial support. That implicit backing was an important element in assigning the BBB grade.

Experts See A Turning Point

Kroll also examined the firm’s risk profile. Revenues at Ripple Prime are still concentrated in spread‑based financing tied to balance sheet size and interest rate dynamics, which makes earnings sensitive to market conditions. 

Nonetheless, Kroll expects margins at Ripple Prime to improve in 2026 as the balance sheet expands, aided by the additional capital infusion of about $500 million from Ripple and by operating leverage as the business grows. 

The rating agency anticipates that planned expansions into Delta1 products (total return swaps and synthetic equity financing for leveraged ETF providers) and equity prime brokerage could materially diversify revenue and bring profitability in line with similarly rated firms if execution proceeds as planned.

Market experts greeted the rating as a turning point in the perception of crypto native firms within traditional finance. Egrag Crypto, among others, interpreted Kroll’s BBB assignment as a sign that institutional trust in Ripple Prime is rising. 

According to Egrag, the grade supports Ripple Prime’s growing prime brokerage business and highlights the company’s efforts to establish institutional-quality infrastructure that connects traditional finance and digital assets. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Coinbase: “Very Close To A Deal”, Despite Stablecoin Dispute

It’s all about the stablecoins. Whether and how exchanges can pay yield on stablecoin balances continues to be the bone of contention for CLARITY’s lawmakers, but according to Paul Grenwal, the long-standing dispute could be resolved as soon as this Friday.

Grenwal claimed in a Wednesday interview on Fox Business that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is “moving toward” a markup session in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. He stressed the need to “finish the job” with cryptocurrencies that was started after the passage of the GENIUS Act last year.

This could later advance to a full floor vote, once senators finally settle the stablecoin yield dispute and formally put the markup on the calendar.

It is worth noting that Grenwal’s statement follows months of drama in which Coinbase derailed an earlier Senate markup by withdrawing support over provisions it said would amount to a “de facto ban” on tokenized equities, heavy DeFi restrictions, and a tilt in power toward the SEC. Bitcoinist covered the story back then.

If the SBC moves to markup this month, as Grewal suggests, the bill could see a floor vote and land on President Trump’s desk as early as this year.

Stablecoin rewards have become the pressure point between banks and crypto firms because banks fear deposit flight, while exchanges view yield‑bearing stablecoins as core to their business models and user growth.

The emerging compromise consists in no rewards for idle, parked stablecoin balances, but limited yields linked to “active” use such as spending or on‑chain transactions. Some big banks, including JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon, appear willing to live with such a framework.

A successful compromise would end a year of committee delays and canceled markups, and could finally give exchanges a federal framework instead of “regulation by enforcement” through the SEC.

Even if the bill passes in an agreeable way for both parties, there’s still a big split between the official narrative and what many in crypto fear it will really do.

Regulators and the administration are selling the CLARITY Act as the moment the U.S. finally becomes the global benchmark for digital‑asset rules: clear, predictable, and safe. CFTC chairman Michael Selig said in another interview with Fox Business this February that the pending U.S. crypto market‑structure bill would make the United States the “gold standard” for digital‑asset regulation.

However, builders and power crypto users continue asking whether that same law quietly locks in a bank and exchange‑centric model, with DeFi, tokenized markets, and true self‑custody pushed to the margins or offshore. This recent Reuters’ overview of the CLARITY Act emphasizes how the legislation will define who regulates which parts of the market and under what licensing regimes, reinforcing concerns that smaller or non‑custodial players could be squeezed.

Stablecoin yield surviving in “transaction‑linked” form would support exchange fees and interest income. But if talks collapse, markets may re‑price U.S. regulatory risk and rotate liquidity toward offshore venues.

Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview

According to reports tied to the company’s shareholder meeting, the South Korea-based exchange says it wants to spend the next stretch fixing its accounting and control systems before it tries to list.

Internal Error Raised Fresh Questions

The exchange’s most damaging recent episode came in February, when it mistakenly credited users with about 2,000 Bitcoin instead of 2,000 won. The mix-up was quickly reversed, and most of the money never left Bithumb’s internal ledger, but the scale of the error was hard to ignore.

It turned a routine systems failure into a public test of trust, and it arrived at a bad time for a company trying to convince regulators and investors that it is ready for the scrutiny that comes with a stock listing.

That mistake followed earlier pressure from South Korean authorities. Under CEO Lee Jae-won, Bithumb faced a six-month suspension and a $24 million fine tied to alleged anti-money-laundering breaches.

Shareholders have now backed Lee for another two-year term, even as the company keeps moving the IPO goal farther down the road. The exchange had once expected to list in 2025, but the new plan is to focus on preparation through 2027 before any filing process advances.

A Slower Road To The Market

Bithumb’s latest timeline fits a broader pattern of delay. CFO Jeong Sang-gyun told shareholders that the company is strengthening its accounting policies and internal controls after bringing in Samjong KPMG as an IPO adviser.

That language points to work that usually happens before a listing window opens, not after a target year has already passed. The change in pace also shows how much the exchange’s public debut now depends on proving basic governance, not just market demand.

The exchange is not the only one moving through the South Korean market with listing plans in view. Dunamu, the operator of Upbit, is also said to be preparing for an IPO after a share swap with Naver Financial, with September mentioned as a possible timing point.

Featured image from Moneyseth, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin ABC Wave Says The Last Drop Has Not Happened

The Bitcoin price continues to struggle after bears had initially broken the support at $70,000, and the resulting weakness has threatened further downtrend. This move aligns with crypto analyst Minga’s prediction that the digital asset was actually stuck in an ABC wave trend.

In the analysis, which was shared on the X (formerly Twitter) platform, the analyst explained that Bitcoin was actually sticking to this trend. Despite the fact that historical movements do not always play out the same way, there is still enough possibility for investors to be cautious.

Deep-diving into the wave pattern, the analyst’s chart shows that the start of the wave began with the price above $100,000. As the price had declined, so did the wave continue to play out. The latest of these now is the fact that the Bitcoin price has now entered the final leg of the wave pattern and this is the most bearish part.

The last wave, Wave C, is the wave that usually leads to the most decline. Here, it is expected to trigger an almost 50% decline in the digital asset’s price. Going by historical performance, following this trend would see the Bitcoin price eventually fall below $40,000.

As for the end of this decline, the analyst places the bottom of the decline somewhere around $34,000. While there is some wiggle room for this, it is still highly likely that the price goes this low. Thus, it is important to factor such a move into the performance of Bitcoin.

As for the major support levels through all of these, the analyst highlighted some support just below $50,000. More specifically, support lies at $49,577 if the price begins to decline. Beneath this level, though, there is hardly any support left for the cryptocurrency.

Fed Governor Calls For Stablecoin Clarity

On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michael Barr discussed the importance of stablecoin regulations, noting that landmark legislation, the Guiding and Establishing Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, provides “some needed clarity” to issuers about how they can fit into the regulatory framework.

During a Federalist Society event, Barr listed main use cases for tokens pegged to the US dollar, including facilitating crypto trading and as a store of value in some foreign jurisdictions. He also highlighted that they can be used to offer reduced remittance costs, expedite trade finance processing, and assist firms in managing their treasury functions.

However, the Fed Governor emphasized that “a great deal” of the clarity will “depend on how federal and state regulators implement the statute.” Therefore, regulators still need to address multiple risks, he warned, explaining that caution is warranted due to “a long and painful history of private money created with insufficient safeguards.”

Key issues include regulation of reserve assets, the potential for regulatory arbitrage, the scope of permissible activities for stablecoin issuers beyond issuance, appropriate capital and liquidity requirements, anti-money-laundering controls, and consumer protection requirements.

The federal regulator called for regulatory and technological measures to ensure that stablecoins are not used for illicit activity, affirming that “tight control over reserve assets, coupled with supervision, capital and liquidity requirements, and other measures, could enhance the stability of stablecoins and make them more viable payment instruments.”

His remarks come as the US Treasury Department seeks public feedback on the GENIUS Act Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) concerning state-level regulatory regimes, issued on April 1.

Final Text On Yield Compromise Delayed

Barr’s warning also follows the clash between the crypto and banking industries over stablecoin-related language that is set to be included in the crypto market structure bill, also known as the CLARITY Act, which was expected to be released as soon as this week but might be delayed until later in the month.

In a shift from last week’s guidance, the bill’s final text of the compromise between industry stakeholders and the Senate Banking Committee is no longer expected to be published this week, a spokesperson for Senator Thom Tillis’s office told Crypto In America on Wednesday.

A source familiar with the matter stated that the delay reflects concerns that releasing the text ahead of a markup, now expected in the back half of the month, could give opponents an opening to slow the bill’s progress.

Notably, the two parties have been fighting over the potential prohibition of yield and rewards on stablecoin balances, stalling the crypto bill for over two months. Last week, the crypto industry got its first look at the latest version of the CLARITY Act, set to address the long-standing dispute.

As reported by Bitconinist, the proposal seemingly prohibited platforms from offering yield, directly or indirectly, for holding a stablecoin, or in a manner that resembles a bank deposit. This restriction would broadly apply to digital asset service providers, including exchanges and brokers, as well as their affiliates.

The text aimed to limit workarounds and prohibit any activity “economically or functionally equivalent” to interest, addressing concerns from the banking industry side, but facing renewed backlash from crypto players like Coinbase.

According to the Wednesday report, the update follows ongoing talks between crypto and banking groups due to dissatisfaction with the earlier draft agreed upon by Tillis, Senator Angela Alsobrooks, and the White House.

The NPRM is the Treasury’s initial regulatory proposal to give effect to the statute’s requirements and solicits public comment on how the department intends to apply the law.

GENIUS Act’s Proposed Rules

Under the GENIUS Act — formally titled the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act — Treasury is charged with setting out, through notice-and-comment rulemaking, high-level principles for assessing whether a state regulatory regime is “substantially similar” to the federal framework. 

The department’s 87-page proposed rule explains how it expects federal and state authorities to interact under the new regime and identifies matters on which Treasury seeks input from stakeholders.

Treasury’s proposal signals that it anticipates states will look to federal guidance, including standards the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has proposed, when deciding how prescriptive their own rules should be. 

The NPRM cites the OCC’s approach, which the OCC says is intended to be flexible and calibrated to the nature, scope, and risks posed by a permitted payment stablecoin issuer’s activities. 

Treasury’s draft leaves room for states to adopt principles-based requirements, indicating that state regulators will have discretion to design standards for issuers who qualify under a state regime.

The ultimate effects will depend on the specific content of each state’s regulatory regime, which the proposal anticipates could vary widely because the GENIUS Act grants states discretion in implementing their own frameworks.

Treasury Draft Sets Timeline

The draft rule also sets out the transition timeline and market consequences contemplated by the statute. Once the GENIUS Act takes effect, entities will be barred from issuing payment stablecoins in the United States unless they are authorized as permitted payment stablecoin issuers. 

In addition, the statute makes it unlawful, beginning July 18, 2028, for digital asset service providers to offer or sell unlicensed stablecoins to persons located in the United States. 

To preserve a state-option pathway for smaller issuers, the law allows a state to license payment stablecoin issuers with a consolidated total outstanding issuance of no more than $10 billion, but only if the state certifies that its regulatory regime is substantially similar to the federal framework.

Taken together, the department is seeking public input on the proposal’s details as it moves toward finalizing rules intended to implement the GENIUS Act’s structure for supervision, licensing, and consumer protections in the stablecoin market.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Analyst Darkfost has identified a pattern that stands out against one of the most hostile environments for altcoins in recent memory. While the broader sector continues to deteriorate — more than 40% of altcoins at or near all-time lows, liquidity draining across the board — targeted activity from large players is beginning to surface on specific tokens. Chainlink is one of them.

The methodology Darkfost applies is straightforward and battle-tested: track where the largest holders are moving their coins, and watch whether those movements point toward accumulation or distribution. When whales begin withdrawing assets from exchanges at scale, it signals a specific behavioral shift — coins moving off the trading venue, into private custody, away from the available sell-side pool. That behavior does not happen by accident. It happens when large players have reached a conclusion about an asset that the broader market has not yet reached.

The altcoin market is not rewarding patience right now. Something in the LINK on-chain data suggests certain participants believe that is about to change.

The Data Has Two Peak Days and a Rising Average

Darkfost’s on-chain breakdown gives the whale signal its specific form. Among the Top 10 daily outflow transactions on Binance, two days have recorded peak withdrawals exceeding 8,000 LINK in a single session — standout events in a chart that had been relatively quiet. More telling than the peaks, however, is what has happened to the baseline.

Since mid-February, the monthly average of Top 10 outflows has risen from approximately 2,000 LINK per day to nearly 2,600 — a 30% increase in the sustained activity of the largest outgoing transactions. Peaks can be anomalies. A rising average is a trend.

In the context of an altcoin market where generalized weakness has become the default condition, that trend carries a specific implication. Large players are not withdrawing LINK from Binance because they intend to sell it elsewhere. Withdrawals to off-exchange storage mean the opposite: coins removed from the sell-side pool, held in private custody, unavailable for immediate distribution. That behavior, sustained over weeks, is the behavioral signature of accumulation.

Darkfost’s caution is precise and deserves to be preserved rather than minimized. Previous accumulation episodes during this correction — some more pronounced than the current one — failed to break the downtrend. The whale signal on Chainlink is real and measurable. Whether it is sufficient to change the market’s direction is a question the coming weeks will answer.

The signal is there. The confirmation is not yet.

Chainlink Tests Lows as Trend Structure Weakens

Chainlink is trading near the lower end of its multi-year range, with price hovering around the $9 level after failing to sustain multiple recovery attempts. The chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs since the 2024 peak, confirming a persistent downtrend that has gradually eroded bullish structure.

Price is now positioned below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, both of which have turned downward and are acting as dynamic resistance. This alignment reinforces the idea that momentum remains firmly against bulls. The 200-week moving average, slightly above current levels, is being tested as a potential support zone — a level that historically carries structural significance. A sustained break below it would likely shift the long-term outlook decisively bearish.

Volume patterns add context. The sharp spikes during sell-offs suggest periods of aggressive distribution, while recent rebounds have occurred on relatively weaker volume, indicating limited conviction from buyers. This imbalance typically precedes either prolonged consolidation or another leg lower.

Despite the weak structure, the current zone is not irrelevant. Historically, similar levels have attracted accumulation phases. The key question is whether demand reappears with strength, or if this range becomes a temporary pause before continuation to the downside.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The company describes these features as the first native digital-asset capabilities built directly into a treasury management system, designed to let corporate finance teams treat crypto holdings the same way they do cash.

Ripple’s New Treasury Features

According to Ripple, the newly disclosed update gives finance and treasury teams a single, unified view of liquidity by aggregating balances from bank accounts, custody providers, and on-chain wallets. 

That consolidated dashboard provides real-time visibility across both fiat and digital assets, eliminating the need for separate systems, manual reconciliation, and time-consuming data consolidation. 

Family offices and corporate treasury groups can now view, hold, receive, and manage fiat and digital liquidity held at banks and custodians within one platform, Ripple said.

Renaat Ver Eecke, Senior Vice President of Ripple Treasury, framed the launch as an answer to a changed reality at the CFO level. “Digital assets have arrived at the CFO’s desk, and the question has shifted from whether to engage to how to do so advantageously without disrupting existing operations,” he said. 

Ver Eecke added that Ripple Treasury provides “a trusted place to hold and manage digital and fiat assets — with no separate interface, no new workflows, and no need to navigate custody, wallets, or exchanges on their own,” calling it an unprecedented digital solution for corporate treasuries.

Unified Treasury And Digital Asset Accounts

Ripple said the new features include several technical functions aimed at improving accounting accuracy and auditability. According to the company, Digital Asset Accounts will display fiat valuations in real time using live exchange rates sourced from market data providers. 

They will also record token amounts to reflect on‑chain notional and reduce rounding discrepancies, and they will automatically log each transaction with the native notional, its fiat equivalent, and the market price at the time of the event to provide an audit trail.

On the other hand, the firm described Unified Treasury as a consolidated reporting interface that aggregates positions held across multiple custodians and banks via its ClearConnect connectivity layer — the same integration layer Ripple uses for bank links. 

The company said the feature supports direct application programming interface (API) connections to several digital‑asset providers, with onboarding that Ripple reports can be completed in minutes. 

Ripple also disclosed that both capabilities are designed to be adopted on an organization’s own timeline and to integrate without disrupting existing approval processes, audit trails, or compliance controls.

Looking ahead, future expansions will connect with Ripple’s existing products for cross-border and intercompany settlement and add features such as 24/7 yield on idle cash via overnight repo, powered by stablecoins and other digital assets. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A CryptoQuant report tracking XRP’s technical structure on Binance has produced a reading that leaves little room for interpretation. The 30-day moving average stands at approximately $1.40. The 90-day moving average sits near $1.64. The 200-day moving average is at $2.06. The current price is below all three — not approaching them, not testing them, but trading beneath each one simultaneously across the short, medium, and long-term timeframes.

That alignment has a name in technical analysis. It is a bearish stack — a configuration in which every major trend reference the market uses to orient itself is pointing in the same direction. Sellers are in control across every timeframe. Buyers have not demonstrated the sustained demand required to reclaim even the nearest average.

The first threshold that matters is $1.40. Not because reclaiming it resolves the situation — it does not — but because without it, the medium and long-term averages above remain irrelevant. The recovery, if it comes, must start there.

XRP Cannot Fix Its Own Chart. It Needs Bitcoin to Help.

The report adds a dimension to the technical picture that the moving average structure alone cannot capture. XRP’s correlation with Bitcoin currently stands at approximately 0.87 — a reading that describes near-total directional alignment between the two assets. XRP is not trading on its own fundamentals, its own on-chain developments, or its own demand dynamics in any meaningful independent sense. It is trading as a high-beta expression of wherever Bitcoin goes next.

That dependency cuts both ways, and the report names both directions honestly. If Bitcoin continues to struggle — capped below $70,000, under whale selling pressure, lacking upside momentum — that weakness will transmit directly to XRP, adding a second layer of downward force on top of an already bearish technical structure. If Bitcoin stages a sustained rally, that momentum will carry XRP with it, potentially providing the external catalyst the chart cannot generate internally.

The verdict the report delivers is unambiguous. XRP remains under clear technical pressure. The downtrend is continuing. Sellers are in control across every timeframe. Nothing in the current data suggests that the condition is about to change on its own.

The one number that changes the conversation is $1.40. Reclaiming the 30-day moving average does not end the downtrend. It signals, for the first time, that the momentum behind it may be slowing — and that is the only first step available from here.

XRP Tests Breakdown Zone as Long-Term Structure Weakens

On the weekly timeframe, XRP is now trading near $1.35 after a sharp rejection from the $3.00–$3.50 region, confirming a decisive loss of bullish momentum. The chart shows a clear transition from expansion to distribution, followed by a breakdown that has brought price back into a historically significant range.

Price is currently sitting below the 50-week moving average, which has started to slope downward, signaling weakening short-term structure. The 100-week moving average is also above the current price and flattening, while the 200-week moving average remains lower but is now the next key support to monitor. This alignment reflects a market that is no longer trending upward and is instead attempting to find a new equilibrium.

The rejection from the recent highs was accompanied by increased volume, suggesting strong participation during the distribution phase. In contrast, the current consolidation is occurring with relatively lower volume, indicating reduced conviction from both buyers and sellers.

Importantly, XRP is now testing a zone that previously acted as resistance during 2021–2022 and later flipped into support. Whether this level holds will likely determine the medium-term direction. A sustained break below could open the path for a deeper retrace, while stabilization here may form the basis for a longer accumulation phase.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The proposal also gives the city a hard line on a problem officials say has already led to fraud complaints, money laundering concerns, and little practical recourse for users who lose money.

Council Vote Puts Ban On Track

The ordinance was introduced on March 17 by Mayor Melinda E. Barrett and cleared an initial City Council vote 11-0, putting it on the council’s agenda for further review.

According to the city’s agenda, the measure would amend local code to prohibit cryptocurrency ATMs altogether. City officials said they see the lack of state and federal rules as a reason for local action.

The move places Haverhill in a growing group of US communities taking aim at crypto kiosks after reports of scams and other illegal activity.

In Minnesota, a lawmaker introduced a bill in February that could ban crypto kiosks, building on a 2024 law that already imposed limits on ATM operators.

Haverhill’s proposal does not stand alone; it fits a pattern that has been spreading city by city and state by state.

Crypto ATMs are often marketed as a simple way to buy digital assets, but local officials have increasingly treated them as a weak point in consumer protection.

In Haverhill’s case, the city said users may have little ability to recover funds once a transaction is complete. That concern was central to the proposed ordinance, which framed the machines as a risk to residents rather than a convenience for them.

Bitcoin Depot Faces Rising Pressure

The proposed ban also lands at a rough time for Bitcoin Depot, one of the largest crypto ATM operators in the US. The company’s stock has fallen more than 90% over the past six months and was trading at $2.06 on Nasdaq on Tuesday, according to the report.

Haverhill-area data from CoinATMRadar and Bitcoin Depot pointed to eight or more machines in the local area.

Bitcoin Depot has been dealing with pressure on several fronts. Connecticut banking regulators issued a temporary cease-and-desist order in March, which effectively suspended its money transmission license.

Authorities in Iowa and Massachusetts have also sued the company, accusing it of helping facilitate crypto scams.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Hong Kong Has Delayed Its Initial Batch Of Stablecoin Licenses

As reported by Wu Blockchain, citing coverage from Caixin, Hong Kong has postponed the issuance of its first stablecoin approvals, meaning that applicants would be waiting for longer before they can receive a license.

Hong Kong first passed its stablecoin bill in August 2025, making it so that organizations looking to issue stablecoins in the Chinese city’s jurisdiction will need to acquire approval from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA).

Following the rollout of the new rules, HKMA started receiving applications from big names like Standard Chartered in its Joint Venture (JV) and HSBC. The first batch of approvals was expected to go out by the end of March, but now April has begun, and no licenses have been handed out at all.

“Hong Kong is concerned that stablecoins may be used for money laundering and may therefore implement stricter KYC regulations,” noted Wu Blockchain. The delay has thrown a wrench in the plans of 36 applicants. Earlier, mainland Chinese regulators cracked down on the sector, stating that fiat-tied cryptocurrencies don’t qualify as legal tender, as they fail to meet regulatory requirements and pose a risk of being used for illegal activities.

Despite the mainland’s stance, however, Hong Kong still moved forward with its stablecoin plans, announcing in February that a “very small number” of issuer licenses would be handed out in March. With that plan not coming to fruition, it now remains to be seen when the HKMA will be able to advance the city’s stablecoin ambitions.

Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea has also seen its stablecoin plans stall, with the Bank of Korea (BoK) arguing for bank-majority stablecoins, while the Financial Services Commission (FCS) advocates for laxer rules.

Meanwhile, Japan took ahead of its neighbors with the launch of its first yen-backed coin last year. The nation could also see its first bank-backed stablecoin this year, with Shinsei Trust and Banking planning on a Q2 2026 launch.

Over in the United States, President Donald Trump signed into law the GENIUS Act last year, providing a formal framework for stablecoins. Overall, this part of the cryptocurrency sector has seen significant global regulatory momentum over the past year, so it’s not surprising to see that its market cap has held up relatively well despite the recent market downturn.

As the chart from DefiLlama shows, the market cap of the fiat-tied tokens has mostly moved sideways in recent months, with its value currently sitting at $316 billion, a new all-time high (ATH).

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,700, down over 4% in the last week.

Weak Bounces Signal Sellers Still In Control

CasiTrades flagged the character of recent relief moves as a bearish signal. According to the analysis, XRP’s recent price behavior is showing clear signs of exhaustion on the upside. This is because every bounce has been cut short around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is a clear indication that sellers are still in control of the price action.

This repeated rejection at shallow retracement levels is a reflection of another broader issue the XRP price is currently facing: buyers are not stepping in with enough strength to change momentum. Instead, each bounce is being sold into quickly, keeping the altcoin locked in a downward structure.

The structure outlined in the analysis follows a clear Elliott Wave breakdown, with XRP playing out a Wave 3 move to the downside. In the context of Elliot Waves, Wave 3 is the most intense part of both bullish and bearish wave cycles.

Based on this count, XRP is projected to drop to as low as $1.09 during Wave 3, with intermediate subwave targets around $1.06. These levels are based on previous liquidity zones and Fibonacci retracements at 0.786 on a larger cycle and 1.618 on a lower cycle. 

A temporary relief bounce is expected afterward, which would create the next impulse Wave 4. Wave 4 is expected to push the XRP price back into the $1.22 to $1.31 range. However, this move is going to be a brief correction against Wave 3, and the broader bearish trend will still be in place.

Sub-$1 Scenario Comes Into Focus

After Wave 4 comes Wave 5, which is a continuation impulse wave in Elliott Wave theory. The most notable part of the forecast lies in how XRP ends up in Wave 5, which is the final leg of the structure. After the projected relief bounce, the analyst predicted a continuation lower toward a major macro support zone around $0.87. This price target is based on the 0.854 Fib retracement on the larger cycle.

Interestingly, the chart above shows that these five impulse wave counts are subwaves of a larger Wave 2 (labeled in green in the chart above), which is also a corrective wave in the Elliott Waves Theory. A bottom around $0.87 is not the end, as the next move would be the larger Wave 3, which is predicted to take the XRP price back above $2.

Strategy Breaks Bitcoin Purchase Pattern

For the first time since December 2025, Strategy reported no Bitcoin purchases during the week of March 23 to March 29, 2026. A filing submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) confirmed this break in routine, which also included no share issuance through its at-the-market (ATM) program—the primary mechanism used to fund Bitcoin accumulation. Before the pause, Strategy’s last purchase was 1,031 BTC between March 16 and March 22, 2026, reflecting a sustained weekly acquisition strategy.

Moreover, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has not publicly explained the pause, a notable silence given his historically regular weekly updates. This combination of halted buying and silence has fueled discussions on whether the era of aggressive corporate Bitcoin accumulation may be under pressure.

BTC Treasury Companies Under Pressure: Market Context

Strategy’s stock, trading at $124.80 at the time of reporting, has declined more than 60% over the past six months, while Bitcoin itself was priced at $67,197, down over 18% across 12 months. These figures illustrate a tightening environment for companies relying on both equity and digital assets to support treasury strategies.

Other firms demonstrate divergent approaches. MARA Holdings sold 15,133 BTC, valued at roughly $1.1 billion, to reduce convertible debt, while Canaan increased holdings by 1,793 BTC and 3,952 ETH while expanding mining operations in Texas. Additional insight comes from Nakamoto Inc., which sold approximately 284 BTC for $20 million in March 2026, below its year-end 2025 weighted valuation of $87,519 per coin. This sale followed a $166.2 million loss from changes in the fair value of its digital assets and reflects a broader recalibration among non-Strategy treasury firms. Nakamoto indicated that proceeds would fund a US dollar operating reserve to support operations and strategic initiatives.

Additional disclosures in the Strategy’s filings provide context on corporate obligations that may influence capital decisions. A shareholder lawsuit filed by David Dodge in July 2025 over preferred stock amendments was dismissed in March 2026, with Strategy agreeing to seek shareholder ratification and cover $550,000 in legal fees.

The combination of halted Bitcoin purchases, no share issuance, declining stock and Bitcoin prices, and similar moves by other treasury firms illustrates a period of recalibration across the sector. Strategy now holds roughly 76% of all BTC owned by public treasury companies, while most others have added minimal holdings in recent weeks. Whether this moment marks a temporary pause or the beginning of the end for Bitcoin treasury companies remains uncertain, but the current data underscores the growing pressures on firms pursuing this once-dominant strategy.

Whales Keep Short Pressure On Bitcoin

Just as Bitcoin’s price struggles to regain stability, the underlying sentiment in BTC is telling a more nuanced story. Even after several weeks of demonstrating bearish action toward Bitcoin, large investors or whales are still betting against the flagship cryptocurrency asset. 

Amid heightened price swings, activity from large holders of Bitcoin has noticeably positioned on the short side, signaling growing caution in the market. Joao Wedson, a market expert and founder of the Alphractal platform, outlined this development on X following his analysis of the Bitcoin Whale Vs Retail Delta metric. 

These investors continue to maintain a bearish stance, with many still opening more short positions as BTC keels trading within a tight range. Given the influence of whales on the market, this trend is one that demands attention, as it could reshape the asset’s next direction.

Looking at the chart, it is clear that large holders are increasingly positioning in shorts while retail investors are doing the opposite. This divergence signals changing sentiment where big investors are expecting a decline in price and retail holders are betting on a potential bounce in the short term. 

According to Wedson, retailers are chasing an infinite upside, but whales are becoming more cautious about Bitcoin and its near-term trajectory. As the divergence expands, this triggers speculation of whether the trend might precede increased volatility or shift the trajectory of BTC.

BTC Whales Are Taking A Break From Selling

On cryptocurrency exchanges, whale activity appears to be undergoing a notable shift. In a report from CryptoQuant’s verified author Darkfost, it was revealed that whale selling activity is cooling down on Binance, the leading trading platform, suggesting that large investors on the platform are choosing to hold during volatile conditions.

Related Reading: Crypto Market First Major Outflow In 5 Weeks – Here’s How Bitcoin And Ethereum Performed

According to Darkfost, whales became more active on the platform as BTC slowly moves closer to the $60,000 level. This slowdown in selling pressure comes after multiple transfers of large portions of BTC into the Binance exchange.

Their activity peaked on February 4, when more than 11,800 BTC were sent to the platform in a single day. By the end of February, the coins moved into the platform per day increased from around 1,000 BTC to nearly 4,000 BTC, which reflects a more pronounced distribution phase from large holders.

Nonetheless, since the wave of transfers in February, the situation seems to have flipped significantly. Whale activity has declined notably, with the 30-day moving average now sitting around 1,600 BTC sent to Binance per day. The decrease in whale deposits indicates that large players are adopting a wait-and-see approach in the current uncertain market environment.

Bitcoin Price Crash Continues As ETFs Record Outflows

Since debuting in 2024, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have played a significant role in driving BTC prices, with the volume and consistency of net daily flows often influencing the market’s direction. When these ETFs record major outflows, it typically suggests that institutional investors are reducing their exposure, likely due to profit-taking, risk management, or shifting market sentiment. Regardless of the reason, the reduced demand tends to place downward pressure on the Bitcoin price.

Notably, data from SoSoValue indicates that Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more outflows than inflows last week, a trend that has noticeably affected prices. On March 18 and 20, these ETFs saw total outflows of $305 million, followed by a modest influx of capital the next day. 

The most recent outflows, which appear to be contributing to Bitcoin’s ongoing downtrend, occurred on March 26 and 27. On Thursday, withdrawals from Spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $171.22 million, further exacerbated by an additional $225.48 million outflow the following day. 

According to SoSoValue, the bulk of these outflows came from BlackRock’s IBIT, which alone saw $41.92 million exit on Thursday and a staggering $201.5 million outflow on Friday. Other funds, including Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC, also recorded outflows during the same period. 

As of now, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have returned to net positive territory, with cumulative inflows totaling $56.12 billion after ending its two-day outflow streak and receiving over $187 million over the last two days. Despite renewed demand, Bitcoin’s price is down, recording a year-to-date decline of roughly 40%. The cryptocurrency is also trading below the $70,000 level, hovering just above $68,000, at the time of writing. 

Other Factors Influencing Price

In addition to the earlier decline in ETF demand, ongoing geopolitical tensions appear to be significantly influencing investor sentiment, further pressuring BTC’s price. The latest update regarding the US-Iran war reveals that no formal peace agreement has yet been reached, even as President Donald Trump’s April 6 deadline to resume strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure approaches rapidly. 

As of now, Market watchers continue to monitor changes in oil prices, ETF inflows, and any diplomatic developments that could impact the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Q1 Played Out As Expected. Here’s What The Analyst Got Right

Going into Q1, the analyst had flagged that XRP’s correction in 2025 was not yet complete and that one more low was likely before the formation of any sustainable rally. That forecast proved accurate. XRP dipped below $1.20 in early February, precisely within the support zone the analyst had identified. The dip eventually bottomed around $1.16 on February 6 before a recovery of about 55% from that low in the same month.

The move, however, did not translate into a full trend reversal, and the XRP price struggled throughout March. Price action across the weekly structure still reflects a market struggling to reclaim strength. The rebound failed to push into higher resistance zones above $1.5. This bearish price action eventually ended up with a negative 2.79% close in March, which is the sixth consecutive month of bearish closes.

XRP Weekly Price Chart. Source: @Morecryptoonl On X

A Temporary Bounce In Q2, But Not A Full Bullish Reversal

As it stands, the XRP price is now sitting at an important decision point, and the analyst is distinguishing between two scenarios heading into Q2. The primary focus is on whether it can sustain a corrective bounce, which is labeled as a “B wave” based on the Elliott Wave theory, back to the $1.76 to $2.86 resistance band.

According to the analysis, any meaningful recovery in Q2 would need to push decisively into this region. A move above $2 would begin to validate the idea of a broader rally. This prediction is based on the 50% Fibonacci extension at $2.03380 and the 61.8% level at $2.34157, both on the weekly chart.

The current expectation leans toward a corrective bounce rather than a full breakout. A move higher in April or early Q2 is considered possible, especially since a similar bounce already occurred earlier in the year.

However, the structure of that bounce matters more than the bounce itself. If the price action forms a three-wave move upward, it would likely confirm a B-wave scenario, meaning the rally is corrective in nature and not the start of a new bullish cycle.

In that case, the XRP price could still be setting up for another leg down (a C wave), which may unfold later in Q2 or extend into Q3.

Coinbase Sees Declining XRP Supply

Recent news surrounding Coinbase is garnering significant attention in the broader cryptocurrency space, which appears to have affected XRP holders on the leading American-based crypto exchange. As a result, there has now been a sharp decline in supply on the platform.

Crypto enthusiast and advocate Diana on X shared that supply has declined on the exchange over the controversial CLARITY Act, effectively staging a boycott that is tightening liquidity. Amid a growing wave of holder resistance, this change highlights growing tensions between the XRP community and regulatory initiatives.

As of late March 2026, the altcoin’s balance on Coinbase has dropped to about 101.86 million XRP after a boycott. Historically, these kinds of behavior have influenced price movement in the upcoming weeks or months, making it a crucial moment for the token and its short-term trajectory.

As the development swells across the space, some analysts are claiming that the supply plunged by almost 90% in just a few months. This trend has been attributed to 2 major issues currently taking place in the crypto market that have left investors speechless. One of the issues is that Coinbase is allegedly blocking the CLARITY Act by rejecting bill drafts in two separate scenarios. The other is the leaked claims that Coinbase requested millions of dollars from Ripple Labs to list XRP back in 2019. 

Diana highlighted that recent 30-day snapshots point to net outflows, ranging from around 20 million to 95 million XRP. What this means is that holders are pulling their coins off Coinbase and moving them to self-custody or other exchanges. If this withdrawal trend persists, Coinbase might end up holding one of the lowest XRP reserve levels the company has seen in years. Furthermore, Diana stated that the trend could lead to a supply shock if buying pressure comes back.

How High Can The Altcoin Go

With the market being highly volatile, many investors find XRP’s outlook unclear. However, Don Digital Finance has delved into the conversation, offering key insights on the altcoin’s path and how high it can actually go in this cycle.

Starting off, the expert highlighted Standard Chartered’s prediction, which claims that the altcoin could be valued at $10.40 by 2027. Some models have predicted an $8 value this year, while others forecast XRP to reach as high as $40 and beyond in the long run.

A $40+ valuation implies a $2 trillion market cap for the altcoin, and the expert declares that this is where real institutional adoption will begin. An $100 valuation is not completely off the table, but it will take the cryptocurrency to become a global asset alongside a crypto move to hit this level.

In the meantime, the most realistic price level for the token is somewhere around $8 to $40 this cycle. At this point, the conservative view sits around the $5 to $15 range, but the expert’s main target for this cycle is $28.

Native XRP Lending Plans To Unlock $100 Billion In Idle Capital

In an X post, Diana stated that Evernorth is officially launching XRP lending on the XRPL, which would unlock $100 billion in capital. The treasury firm plans to bring native lending on the Ledger through the proposed XLS-66 amendment. She added that there are already 473 million of the altcoin in the treasury and that there is a vision to unlock up to $100 billion in dormant capital through yield-generating activity. 

Further commenting on what this native lending entails, Diana noted that it is built directly into the Ledger and will feature single-asset vaults, fixed-term and fixed-rate loans, automated on-chain repayments through smart contracts, and zero-knowledge proofs for confidentiality. Furthermore, this native lending feature eliminates the need to bridge, wrap XRP, or face custody risks just to earn yield on one’s holdings. 

Diana highlighted how this could draw more institutional investors as they can finally deploy liquidity without leaving the Ledger or relying on external smart contracts. The pundit noted that XLS-66 is not yet live and is currently in the validator voting phase. The proposed amendment needs an 80% supermajority vote to get activated. However, this provides insight into what lies ahead for the the Ledger, with yield on the horizon. 

It is worth noting that at the moment, investors have had to bridge their assets to other networks, such as the Flare network. Last year, Flare launched earnXRP, which is the first fully on-chain yield product denominated in the altcoin.

Why It Matters To Earn Yield Natively On The Ledger

Evernorth Chief Business Officer Sagar explained that earning yield on the Ledger rather than bridging to other networks matters because bridging can trigger a taxable event in most jurisdictions. He also highlighted the risk of trusting “unproven” smart contracts on other networks with hundreds of millions of dollars at stake. On the other hand, the XLS-66 protocol relies on the Ledger’s security, and with native lending, there is no wrapping or new risk surface. 

As such, he is confident that institutional investors will be more willing to participate once native lending is activated. He also remarked that he is excited about this feature because lending makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts, including XRP payments, which are currently carried out on the Ledger. 

At the time of writing, the altcoin’s price is trading at around $1.34, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The transaction, first announced in September and closed late Tuesday, values the business at about $1.2 billion and included a $50 million strategic investment from institutional backers.

CoinShares’ CEO Urges Patience After 25% Slide

The listing, however, got off to a rocky start. On its first session on the Nasdaq, CoinShares’ shares plunged roughly 25%, trading just below $8.30 at the time of writing, according to Yahoo Finance data. 

The sharp sell‑off reflects broader turbulence in digital‑asset stocks and follows months of heightened volatility tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices. 

Major crypto tokens such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have struggled to mount sustainable rallies during the same period, putting additional pressure on firms focused on crypto products.

CoinShares CEO Jean‑Marie Mognetti pushed back against reading too much into the market’s initial reaction. Speaking to Barron’s, he said the company’s US listing was driven by readiness rather than market convenience. 

“We are not listing because the market is easy. We are listing because the business is ready, and that’s much more important,” Mognetti said, stressing the company’s long‑term strategy over short‑term share price movements.

deSPACs Average 60% Drop In Year One

CoinShares’ US listing is structured as a deSPAC — the operating company formed after a Special Purpose Acquisition (SPAC) merger — and deSPACs have generally performed poorly post‑deal. 

Data compiled by SPAC Research and cited by Jay Ritter, director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida, show that deSPACs have fallen on average about 60% in the 12 months following their mergers over the last five years. 

In his conversation with Barron’s, Mognetti framed the SPAC route as a regulatory and practical choice to facilitate the company’s cross‑border listing rather than as an urgent need for liquidity. 

He also told reporters he remains untroubled by the initial market sell‑off and urged patience: “Give us time to just put real numbers out. The market will decide after that.”

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A New Comprehensive Crypto Framework

The Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025 that passed just today has one key requirement. Now, most centralized exchanges and tokenized custody platforms that hold client assets must obtain an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL), coming under ASIC’s full oversight on custody, disclosure, governance, and risk management.

Rather than policing individual crypto assets, the law zeroes in on the intermediaries that hold costumers’ funds, seeking to curb risks such as fund mixing, bankruptcies, and asset abuse that have fueled past crypto blowups.

The law doesn’t just cover spot trading. It carves out two fresh classes of regulated firms: DigitalAssetPlatforms (DAPs) and tokenized custody platforms (TCPs). The legislations subjects them both to the same fundamental rulebook that governs brokers and asset managers. This is key for real‑world asset tokenization and institutional products.

According to the bill itself, businesses will have 18 months to comply with the new licensing and operational standards. The only exemptions are for very small providers with low annual transaction volumes. It is worth noting that this 18-month shift could create temporary friction in on‑ramps, liquidity fragmentation, and higher spreads as platforms rework banking relationships and risk controls.

Bringing exchanges and tokenization providers fully under the Corporations Act could finally give TradFi the legal certainty it has been waiting for. With these businesses operating under the same familiar framework that governs traditional securities and managed funds, banks, pension funds, and asset managers gain clearer lines of accountability, standardized disclosures, and enforceable investor protections. That clarity lowers reputational and compliance risk for institutions that have been reluctant to touch digital assets, potentially opening the door to new products, deeper liquidity, and more direct participation in tokenization and crypto markets.

The new legislation, introduced and read for the first time at the ending of November 2025, could unlock up to A$24 billion a year in productivity and efficiencies across the financial sector if tokenization and digital asset infrastructure scale, government‑backed estimates. The now passed bill positions Australia as one of the most proactive jurisdictions in the global race for crypto regulation. This new more EU‑style, MiCA‑like regime competes with hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong in the race to host compliant digital asset platforms.

Short term, it is safe to expect the possible delistings of niche tokens, tighter onboarding and KYC, and periodic volatility as local liquidity migrates toward fully licensed venues. Medium term, we could see deeper order books on fewer, heavily supervised platforms, more institutional flow, growing tokenization plays, and a clearer split between “regulatory premium” assets and unloved, hard‑to‑list tokens

If the framework lands well, Australia could become a regulated gateway for Asia‑Pacific crypto capital.

Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview

A Conditional Departure

Speaking to reporters, US President Donald Trump suggested that the current conflict might be nearing its end, hinting that US forces could wrap up operations “soon.”

While the White House is floating a two-to-three-week timeline, there’s a major catch: Washington isn’t leaving until they feel their military objectives are met.

(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States could end its military attacks on Iran within two to three weeks and Tehran did not have to make a deal as a prerequisite for the conflict to wind down.

The remarks underscored the shifting and at times contradictory…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) April 1, 2026

The markets reacted almost instantly to the news. Traders and investors saw stocks tick upward while oil prices finally caught a break, cooling off as the fear of a total blockade in the Strait of Hormuz began to fade.

Interestingly, officials have clarified that this isn’t about a peace treaty; it’s a strategic exit based on how much of Tehran’s military capability the US can dismantle before heading for the door.

The Volatility Window

Despite the optimistic talk of leaving, the situation on the ground is far from settled. Reports of ongoing US strikes suggest that the next few days could still be quite violent. Trump has made it clear that he wants to “degrade” Iran’s ability to fight back before pulling the plug, which leaves traders in a difficult spot.

If the exit happens fast, we’ll likely see a massive relief rally. If the military gets bogged down in “one last strike,” expect volatility to come roaring back.

Crypto traders are perhaps the most tuned-in to this window. Bitcoin has spent the last week acting like a geopolitical barometer, swinging wildly with every headline out of the Gulf.

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering in that $68,300 to $69,000 range, stubbornly holding onto support. The “smart money” seems to be playing both sides of the fence right now.

NOW – Trump says the U.S. will leave the Iran War in 2 or 3 weeks. pic.twitter.com/p0j83neowV

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 31, 2026

The Bitcoin bull case would be a clean US exit removes the “uncertainty tax” on risk assets, potentially sending Bitcoin back toward all-time highs.

The bear case would be the withdrawal timeline slips and more strikes occur, we could see a “flush out” as investors flee to traditional hedges.

For now, the message from Washington is loud and clear, but it comes with a massive asterisk. The US is packing its bags, but it’s going to make sure it finishes the job before it leaves the room.

Featured image from Reuters/Kevin Lamarque, chart from TradingView

“We will take revenge in your behalf” As Long As You Pay In Crypto

Red paint on the door. Human waste on the stairwell. Defamatory leaflets scattered through the building. A Telegram channel with self destructing messages offering revenge “on demand” for any interested vindictive crypto-owner. This is not the premise of a Korean action movie, but an actual case the Korean police is currently investigating.

South Korean outlets reported on Monday that the Gyeonggi Southern Provincial Police Agency have now linked at least six similar “revenge attacks” across cities like Hwaseong, Uiwang, Gunpo, Pyeongtaek and Paju, all allegedly commissioned over private Telegram channels and funded with small crypto payments. None of the crimes have yet been reported in Seoul, according to the police.

Price offers include around $325 in crypto to blanket a neighborhood with flyers falsely branding men as child sex offenders or women as prostitutes. For up to roughly $1,300, you can go for more extreme harassment, like smearing human waste on doors and stairwells, gluing locks, and aggressive graffiti.

On February this year, the Gyeonggi police arrested two men in their 20s in two separate cases, for breaking into multi-unit dwelling, scattering food waste and human feces on apartment front doors and spray-painting them and posting threatening flyers, Dong-A Ilbo claims. Both men confessed they carried out the attacks after being paid 600,000 to 800,000 won in cryptocurrency by an anonymous “boss” they had connected with on Telegram.

In January, the police pulled off a rare move by arresting an entire four‑person crew, including a ringleader in his 30s. In a particularly brazen twist, they allegedly hired a man in his 40s under the guise of a consulting role at a Baedal Minjok outsourcing firm to steal the personal data they needed. Investigators say he went on to access more than 1,000 individuals’ details for purposes unrelated to customer support.

Nobody in the chain knows each other’s real identities.

According to JoongAng Ilbo, the criminal rings advertised for customers through the social network X, with slogans like: “We will take care of even your most unspeakable problems, from bank‑account blackmail and infidelity to school bullying offenders and scam victims, in a satisfying way.”

Reporters Kim Jeong-jae and Han Chan-woo actually contacted some of this operators to uncover the working methods of the organizations. One of this brokers told them that they don’t carry out actual killings, but will resort to physical assaults if needed. The broker laid out four main revenge tactics: fabricating criminal allegations, cutting off the target’s financial access, wrecking their reputation within their social circle, and staging accidents that cause bodily harm. The claim went as far as assuring they could pin unsolved crimes on the chosen victim and even push cases far enough that the person ends up with a prison sentence or a hefty fine.

Reporter Kim Kang-woo for the Kiho Ilbo explained their modus operandi meticulously. Members of the organizations recruit perpetrators using bait such as “high-paying part-time jobs.” The handlers supplied details like the victims’ home addresses and common entrance codes, along with step‑by‑step instructions for the job. The attackers carry out the crimes mostly at dawn, when streets are quiet. They take care to avoid cameras by wearing hats and masks to hide their faces from nearby CCTV. Afterward, they snap “proof” photos of the damage on their phones and sent the images back to their superiors.

South Korea is not the only country suffering from very dark crypto-linked crimes. Famous cases include the 2015 Silk Road saga, with its developer Ross Ulbritch being sentenced to life in prison for building a dark web platform where users could purchase drugs and other illicit services using Bitcoin. He was later granted a pardon by US President Donald Trump in January 2025.

The North Korea‑affiliated Lazarus Group has funneled billions of dollars in stolen money through cryptocurrency networks.

As South Korean police hunt for the still‑unknown masterminds and brokers, these cases become fresh ammunition for politicians who want tougher controls on self‑custody, mixers and privacy tools. Every lurid headline about crypto‑funded harassment helps justify stricter travel‑rule enforcement, tighter exchange surveillance and potentially harsher penalties for non‑compliant platforms. This trends can affect liquidity, on‑ramps and volatility even if the underlying use‑cases are tiny in value terms.

Serious traders should treat this as a sentiment and regulation signal. The more crypto is linked to cheap, personalised violence, the stronger the case for intrusive oversight.

Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

No Half-Measures In The Company’s New Direction

CEO Ben Gagnon made the company’s position plain during an earnings call. “No half-measures, no compromises, and in time, no Bitcoin,” he said. “We built a new company.” Bitfarms is now focused on building and operating data centers that power high-performance computing and artificial intelligence platforms.

According to company filings, it is developing a 2.2-gigawatt infrastructure pipeline across North America, targeting what it calls hyperscalers and next-generation cloud providers.

The rebrand and the relocation have both received shareholder approval. The move to the US signals a deliberate repositioning — one aimed at tapping a market where AI infrastructure spending has been climbing steadily.

A Year Of Heavy Losses Tied To Falling Bitcoin Prices

The company’s 2025 financial results, also released Tuesday, showed a net loss of $284.5 million — wider than the year before. Revenue rose 70% year-on-year to close to $230 million, but the cost of generating that revenue came in at $248 million, producing a gross loss before other expenses were counted.

General and administrative costs also increased. A swing in the fair value of digital assets cost the company almost $51 million last year, compared to a $26 million gain in 2024. A $28 million gain from selling digital assets partially offset those figures.

Bitcoin mining has become a harder business to run. Data shows the leading cryptocurrency has dropped 45% from its October high. Mining difficulty — a measure of how hard it is to earn new coins — has risen 58% since the last halving in May 2024. Those conditions squeezed margins across the industry, not just at Bitfarms.

Despite the losses, investors responded positively. Shares closed Tuesday up 6.60%, trading at 2.73 Canadian dollars, or roughly $1.96 US.

Reports indicate the company still holds about $161 million in Bitcoin that carries no debt against it. That reserve provides some financial flexibility as the transition continues.

Bitfarms is not alone in making this kind of shift. Iris Energy has been scaling AI cloud services using Nvidia graphics processors. Cipher Mining locked in a long-term hosting deal with AI cloud firm Fluidstack.

Riot Platforms and MARA Holdings have both expanded into AI and high-performance computing as well. The pattern reflects a broader move by mining companies seeking higher margins in a different corner of the tech sector.

For Bitfarms, the message from leadership is that the old business is done. What comes next is being built from the ground up — under a new name, in a new country, chasing a different market entirely.

Featured image from Akos Stiller/Bloomberg via Getty Images, chart from TradingView

Ethereum Holds Up Similarly To Bitcoin

Ethereum only briefly made a new peak of $4,953 last year, and this was very short-lived. As the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, it is the digital asset that has most mirrored the Bitcoin performance during the decline, returning with similar numbers.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, the Ethereum price is down around 59% since 2025, not far off from Bitcoin’s 47% in the same time period. In a similar fashion, the daily trading volume is down more than 65% from its all-time high, mirroring the same pattern. Interestingly, the Ethereum price is up 6% on a year-to-date basis.

XRP’s Failure To Hit All-Time Highs Shows Weakness

Between 2024 and 2025, the XRP price was able to rally by around 600%, hitting about $3.5. However, even this major rally could not propel the altcoin price well enough to hit a new all-time high and break the 2017 $3.8 record. The price eventually peaked in 2025, and it has been downhill ever since.

With the XRP price trading below $1.5, this means that the altcoin is now more than 65% below its all-time high levels. On a year-to-date basis, the XRP price is down 37%, despite major developments such as the XRP Vs. SEC lawsuit coming to an end, and the advent of Vanguard allowing ETFs on its platform, among others.

The Solana price hit multiple new peaks during the last bull run, outperforming both XRP and Ethereum. But the decline has been just as strong as its rally. CoinMarketCap data shows that Solana is currently trading more than 71% below its $294 all-time high that was set in 2025.

Over the last year, the Solana price has crashed more than 35%, and this decline has seen it crash below $100 for the first time since 2024. Meme coin activity, which was the primary driver of the Solana price, has died down significantly, and this decline in activity has contributed to the bearish pressure.

Going by the data, the Ethereum price has held up the best, with XRP coming in second. The Solana price has suffered the most during this time, emerging the worse-off out of the three.

30-Day SMA Of Bitcoin Transaction Fees Has Seen A Massive Decline

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed the latest trend in the Bitcoin Total Transaction Fees. This indicator measures, as its name suggests, the daily total amount of fees that senders are paying to the network every day.

Users attach transfer fees with their moves as compensation for the miners who handle them. The average amount of fees that senders opt for is usually related to the activity that’s occurring on the network.

The Bitcoin blockchain only has a limited capacity to process transactions, so whenever there is a high amount of transfer activity, the mempool can become clogged. When that happens, transfers can sometimes end up stuck in waiting for long.

Users who don’t want to wait for congestion to clear up can simply opt to pay a higher-than-average fee, incentivizing miners to prioritize their moves. As senders compete in this manner, the Total Transaction Fees can blow up.

In contrast, users have no need to attach any significant amount of fees with their transactions during periods of little activity, as the miners will quickly process their transfers regardless.

Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Total Transaction Fees over the history of the cryptocurrency:

As displayed in the above graph, the BTC-denominated Total Transaction Fees has witnessed its 30-day SMA go through a downtrend since the peak at the start of 2024. Interestingly, the decline maintained even as BTC observed multiple bull rallies to new all-time highs (ATHs).

This would imply that even the bullish price action was unable to attract network demand. A potential reason behind this could be the launch of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. The spot ETFs are investment vehicles that allow for an off-chain route of investment into the cryptocurrency.

These funds were approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) back in January 2024, which is when the Total Transaction Fees topped out. Considering the timing, it’s possible that the presence of the spot ETFs had a role to play in the decline in on-chain activity.

Today, the 30-day SMA of the Bitcoin Total Transaction Fees is sitting at 2.5 BTC per day, which is the lowest value since March 2011. “Fee compression of this magnitude reflects a significant reduction in on-chain demand for block space, consistent with subdued network,” noted the analytics firm.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has retraced its recent recovery as its price has dropped to the $67,900 mark.

The investment bank’s managing director, Jaret Seiberg, now places the probability of Senate passage and subsequent House approval at roughly one‑in‑three, a markedly more pessimistic assessment than earlier expectations.

Coinbase And Banks Spar Over Stablecoin Yield 

Senators are reportedly preparing to circulate a revised draft of the CLARITY Act as soon as this week. The bill is intended to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, but one of its most consequential provisions would broadly prohibit platforms from providing yield “directly or indirectly” on stablecoins.

That restriction has prompted strong objections from major crypto firms and complicated talks with banking interests. Coinbase’s global head of investment research said last week the industry is coordinating a counterproposal.

Seiberg argues the proposed stablecoin restriction is fraught with tradeoffs. “The problem is that this would discourage investors from using stablecoins as a way to invest excess liquidity, which is why platforms like Coinbase would object,” he wrote. 

From the banks’ perspective, limiting stablecoin yield is also beneficial because it reduces the incentive for crypto platforms to use stablecoins for everyday payments — an outcome banks view as a threat to core deposits.

Beyond stablecoin yield, several other complex and unresolved subjects remain likely to shape final negotiations: safeguards for decentralized finance (DeFi), token classification, and rules for tokenizing real‑world assets (RWAs). 

Those issues have proven difficult to reconcile across the political and industrial divides, and they are keeping lawmakers and industry groups locked in detailed bargaining.

Senators Temper Optimism On Crypto Bill

TD Cowen’s Managing Director also noted that even lawmakers who had previously expressed confidence about passage are tempering expectations. 

Politico reported that Senator Mark Warner reduced his estimate for passage to between 50% and 60%, down from earlier forecasts near 80%. “The signs are not pointing to success,” Seiberg observed.

Seiberg expects the most likely window for action to be in late July, arguing that the threat of the recess could force senators toward compromise. “We see the prospects as lower. To us, there is a one‑in‑three probability for the Senate to advance a version of the CLARITY Act that the House will pass,” he wrote. 

He added that the only plausible route to enactment, in his view, would be for Congress to push through a compromise despite objections from both Coinbase and the banking sector — a scenario he described as possible but unlikely, since Congress usually only takes that course intermittently.

For now, uncertainty persists around whether the bill’s language can be adjusted to satisfy both sides. A key procedural milestone to watch is the markup date for the Senate Banking Committee, which will signal whether negotiators are ready to move from drafting to formal consideration.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Top analyst Darkfost has published an assessment that reframes the current consolidation in a way the price chart alone does not permit. Bitcoin is holding a range between $62,000 and $75,000 — a level that represents approximately 47% of the all-time high reached in October. That number deserves to sit with the reader for a moment. Nearly half the value created at the cycle peak has been erased. The market that produced that peak is not the market that exists today.

And yet, Darkfost identifies a behavioral shift that cuts directly against the bearish price narrative. Whale selling activity on Binance has been declining clearly and consistently. The large players — the ones whose selling pressure helped drive the correction from the October highs — appear to be stepping back. The distribution phase that defined the first quarter of 2026 is showing signs of exhaustion.

That does not make $70,000 a floor. It does not guarantee a recovery. What it means is that the overhead selling pressure that has capped every rally attempt is quietly losing its fuel — and that changes the market’s sensitivity to any new wave of demand.

The Selling Had a Peak. That Peak Has Passed.

Darkfost’s data places the whale behavior in a precise historical context. As Bitcoin approached the $60,000 level, large holders on Binance became acutely active — the kind of activity that signals distribution rather than accumulation.

The peak arrived on February 4th: more than 11,800 BTC sent to Binance in a single day, the highest single-session whale deposit recorded in the period under review. That number did not arrive in isolation. It was the culmination of an escalating trend that pushed the 30-day moving average of daily BTC inflows from approximately 1,000 BTC to nearly 4,000 BTC by the end of February — a fourfold increase in selling infrastructure in less than a month.

What has happened since is the development the report identifies as significant. Whale deposits have declined sharply. The 30-day moving average now sits at approximately 1,600 BTC per day — still above the pre-February baseline, but less than half the peak reading. The pipeline of large-holder selling that defined February has contracted considerably.

Darkfost’s interpretation is measured and should remain so. A decline in whale deposits is not a bullish signal. It is the removal of a bearish one. Large players appear to have shifted to a wait-and-see posture — neither aggressively distributing nor aggressively accumulating. In an uncertain market, that stillness is itself information.

The pressure from above is easing. The support from below has not yet appeared to replace it.

Bitcoin Holds $66K as Downtrend Structure Remains Intact

Bitcoin is trading around the $66,000–$67,000 range, stabilizing after a sharp breakdown that defined February’s price action. The chart shows a clear transition from distribution near the $90,000–$100,000 region into a strong impulsive move lower, followed by a period of consolidation between roughly $63,000 and $70,000.

Despite this stabilization, the broader structure remains bearish. BTC continues to trade below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both trending downward and acting as dynamic resistance. Each recent attempt to push higher has been rejected near the $70,000–$72,000 zone, reinforcing this level as a key ceiling in the current range.

Volume dynamics support this interpretation. The largest spike occurred during the capitulation phase in February, indicating forced selling or liquidations. Since then, volume has normalized, suggesting the market is in a reaccumulation or pause phase, but without clear bullish confirmation.

Importantly, price is now compressing toward the lower half of the range. Repeated tests of the $65,000–$66,000 area suggest demand is present, but not strong enough to drive expansion.

A break above $72,000 would shift short-term momentum, while losing $63,000 could trigger another leg down, potentially targeting lower liquidity zones.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

SEC Scrutinized Over Crypto Enforcement Actions

On Monday, US Senator Richard Blumenthal, Ranking Member of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, sent a letter to the SEC’s Chairman, Paul Atkins, requesting answers about the Commission’s alleged preferential treatment of crypto businesses and entities linked to President Trump against the advice of senior staff.

The letter follows recent reports that the Division of Enforcement Director, Margaret Ryan, left the agency after allegedly facing pressure from Trump officials to drop fraud charges against Tron’s founder, Justin Sun.

Blumenthal expressed concerns about Ryan’s sudden departure, as reports suggest that senior leadership may have intervened to prevent the division from investigating individuals close to President Trump.

The Senator highlighted that earlier this month, the agency dismissed fraud charges against Sun and several of his companies in a settlement that involved a $10 million civil penalty. He pointed out that “Sun has sought to curry favor with President Trump by buying into Trump family cryptocurrency ventures,” particularly the TRUMP memecoin and World Liberty Financial’s WLFI token.

“This is a clear example of how President Trump’s blatant crypto corruption creates back doors for his family’s business partners, creating a pay-to-play enforcement regime that turns a blind eye to grave threats to national security and consumer protection,” Blumenthal affirmed.

He requested that the SEC provide the records and communications related to enforcement decisions involving crypto firms, including companies linked to Justin Sun and Binance’s co-founder Changpeng Zhao.

Senator Blumenthal also asked for all records and communications between the Office of the Chairman and any member of the Trump or Witkoff families regarding WLFI or TRUMP, and a list of any other enforcement cases where the Director of the Division of Enforcement’s recommendations were overruled by Atkin’s Office or other SEC senior leaders.

Senators Question SEC Enforcement Chief’s Departure

Crypto-skeptic democratic Senator and Ranking Member of the Senate Banking Committee, Elizabeth Warren, also pressed the SEC’s Chairman on Monday, with a letter seeking answers about the sudden departure of the agency’s top enforcement official.

Warren also cited a recent Reuters report claiming that Ryan had clashed with agency leaders over the direction of its enforcement program, particularly the cases linked to President Trump and his family.

The SEC’s enforcement director resigned on March 16 after only six months on the job. According to people familiar with the matter, Ryan allegedly “wanted to be more aggressive in pursuing charges for fraud and other misconduct, including in cases that touched the president’s circle, but faced resistance from SEC chair Paul Atkins and other top Republican political appointees.”

In the letter, Warren noted Ryan’s unusually short term at the agency, calling it “deeply troubling” after the reported circumstances of her departure and the lack of a reason or successor.

“Typically, ‘S.E.C. enforcement chiefs serve for years.’ But on March 16, 2026, approximately six months into her tenure as Director, the Commission announced Judge Ryan’s resignation from the agency. The press release announcing her departure did not include a reason or name a successor. But news reports suggest that Judge Ryan may have been stymied in her efforts to enforce the law,” stated Warren.

Ultimately, the crypto-skeptic lawmaker expressed her concerns that the change in leadership under the Trump administration would hinder the Division of Enforcement’s ability to fulfill its mission.

In a social media post on X  (previously Twitter), the founder of the crypto exchange sought to ease concerns while acknowledging the technical and governance challenges ahead.

A Complex Task For The Crypto Industry 

Google’s whitepaper, published March 30, warned that the cryptographic foundations of most major digital assets are more vulnerable to quantum attacks than previously believed, noting that 6.9 million Bitcoin (BTC) are potentially at risk today, including about 1.7 million coins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.

CZ responded to the report with a straightforward message: “All crypto has to do is upgrade to Quantum‑Resistant (Post‑Quantum) Algorithms. So, no need to panic.” He balanced that reassurance with realism, warning that implementing post‑quantum cryptography across decentralized networks is difficult. 

Coordination problems, disputes over which algorithms to adopt, and the inevitable forks that may follow are likely. Some projects may never migrate, and CZ suggested that failing or dormant projects might be better off disappearing than becoming easier targets.

He also flagged practical risks that accompany any large‑scale cryptographic overhaul. New code can introduce vulnerabilities in the short term, and users who hold their own keys will need to migrate funds to upgraded wallets.

CZ raised an additional point about Satoshi’s coins. If those long‑dormant addresses move, it would strongly suggest that their owner is active; if they remain untouched for long enough, he proposed locking or effectively burning them to prevent them from becoming targets for attackers who might break old cryptography. 

New Steps Against Quantum Threats

The industry has already begun to move. Ethereum (ETH), which has publicly acknowledged the quantum risk, unveiled a new resource hub dedicated to post‑quantum security on March 25. 

Its co‑founder, Vitalik Buterin, previously emphasized the need for changes in how Ethereum stores data and signs transactions to remain secure against future quantum advances. 

On the Bitcoin side, BTQ Technologies released Bitcoin Quantum testnet v0.3.0 on March 20, implementing the first working version of Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP‑360), a practical experiment in quantum‑resilient signatures.

In short, the path forward is clear in principle: adopt quantum‑resistant algorithms and migrate wallets and smart contracts to new signature schemes. In practice, the process will be messy, contested, and technically challenging. 

Yet, CZ’s bottom line was optimistic: “Fundamentally: It’s always easier to encrypt than decrypt. More computing power is always good. Crypto will stay, post quantum,” the former Binance CEO said to conclude his social media post.  

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $66,833. According to CoinGecko data, this represents a 1% loss in the last 24 hours and a nearly 5% loss over the past week. 

Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView.com 

Vast Majority Of Bitcoin STH Supply Is In The Red

As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in an X post, the Bitcoin short-term holders as a whole are currently facing an underwater situation. The “short-term holders” (STHs) here refer to BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to move or sell them in the future. Since the STHs have a relatively short holding time, they may be considered to consist of the weak side of the market. The diamond hands are represented by the “long-term holders” (LTHs), who have been holding since longer than 155 days.

As the below chart shows, the Bitcoin STHs currently hold a total of 5,198,409 BTC in their balance.

It’s also visible in the graph that in terms of the trend, the STH supply has been sliding down recently, meaning that coins have been maturing into the LTH cohort. In other words, HODLing sentiment has been rising among holders alongside the market downturn.

While the STH supply has declined, its loss concentration has been maintained at high levels, as the Supply in Loss metric shows.

The Supply in Loss measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the BTC supply that’s being held at some net unrealized loss right now. The indicator determines this by going through the on-chain history of each coin to find its last transaction price/cost basis.

Coins with an acquisition value higher than the latest spot price are put in the loss category. Another indicator called the Supply in Profit tracks the coins of the opposite type: those with a cost basis lower than BTC’s current value.The bearish market action in recent months has resulted in the Supply in Loss shooting up for the STHs, with its value today hitting the 96.8% level. At the same time, the  Supply in Profit has naturally plummeted, shrinking down to just 3.2%.

In some other news, a very old LTH has shifted their coins during the past day, as Maartunn has highlighted in another X post.

These tokens were held for more than ten years before being involved in this transaction, suggesting that either some lost coins have been rediscovered or a very resolute investor has decided to break their silence.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $66,600, down over 6% in the last seven days.

Data from Arkham Intelligence has identified a transaction that stands in direct contrast to the current market mood: Bitmine staked an additional 167,578 ETH — approximately $340 million — within the last several hours. This was not a purchase. It was a commitment. Staking ETH means locking it, removing it from circulation, and declaring that it will not be sold. At $2,000, during a period when most market participants are questioning whether that level holds, Bitmine chose to deepen its position rather than reduce it.

The cumulative context makes the move even more consequential. It is a structural bet on Ethereum’s long-term value, built transaction by transaction, at prices the broader market has treated as a reason to hesitate.

Every ETH that Bitmine stakes is ETH that cannot be sold. At $2,000, with exchange supply already contracting, that distinction matters more than it would at any other point in the cycle.

One Institution Is Not Waiting for the Recovery. It Is Funding It

Bitmine’s latest transaction of 167,578 ETH brings its total staked position to 3,310,221 ETH, now valued at approximately $6.72 billion. That figure is not a portfolio allocation. It is an institutional declaration made across multiple transactions, at multiple price points, through one of the most difficult periods Ethereum has experienced in recent memory. Each stake was a choice. Together, they form an argument about where ETH goes from here.

The market Bitmine is betting on is fragile. Ethereum is navigating a delicate price level around $2,000 — a zone that has absorbed significant selling pressure and is now attempting to form the base of a recovery. The broader market is trying to stabilize after months of sustained downside, and every session at this level is a test of whether buyers have enough conviction to defend it against renewed pressure.

Bitmine has answered that question for itself. $6.72 billion in staked ETH is the most unambiguous expression of conviction available in this market. The only question left is whether the price eventually agrees.

Ethereum Tests Macro Support as Structure Weakens

Ethereum is trading near the $2,000–$2,100 region, a level that now acts as a critical macro support after the recent breakdown from the $3,000 range. The weekly chart shows a clear shift in structure, with ETH failing to hold above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, both of which are beginning to flatten and turn into resistance.

The rejection from the $3,500–$4,000 region marked a decisive loss of bullish momentum, followed by a sharp move lower that tested the 200-week moving average, currently sitting below the $2,000 level. Price has since bounced slightly, but remains compressed just above this long-term trend indicator.

This positioning is important. Historically, the 200-week moving average has acted as a strong support during corrective phases. Holding above it would suggest that Ethereum is undergoing a deep retracement within a broader uptrend. Losing it, however, would signal a structural breakdown with potential for extended downside.

Volume spikes during the selloff point to capitulation or forced liquidations, while the recent stabilization indicates that selling pressure is being absorbed, but without clear bullish expansion.

Structurally, Ethereum is at an inflection point. A reclaim of $2,500 would shift momentum, while sustained weakness below $2,000 would expose lower liquidity zones.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The financial giant is rebranding its suite of digital asset services under the name Kinexys, moving away from the previous Onyx label.

This shift comes as the bank integrates major global corporations into its private network to handle massive cross-border capital flows.

Among the latest to join is Mitsubishi Corporation, the Japanese conglomerate with vast interests in energy, mineral resources, and retail.

Instant Settlement Replaces Traditional Banking Delays

The partnership with Mitsubishi focuses on the mechanical reality of moving money between different countries and currencies.

Traditional banking systems often require several days to clear international transfers because they rely on a complex web of correspondent banks.

Reports indicate that Mitsubishi will use the Kinexys platform to reduce these settlement times to roughly two minutes. This allows the company to manage its liquidity in real-time rather than waiting for manual processing across different time zones.

Mitsubishi to adopt JPMorgan blockchain service for fund transfers https://t.co/JSpkFZx3Xb

— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) March 30, 2026

The system operates 24 hours a day, providing a level of constant availability that standard wire services cannot match.

Data shows that the platform has already handled more than $1 trillion in total volume since it began operations. By moving the “plumbing” of finance onto a shared digital ledger, the bank claims it can eliminate the friction that typically slows down corporate treasuries.

Mitsubishi intends to use the technology to streamline its global supply chain payments. This involves coordinating funds across dozens of subsidiaries and international partners.

Instead of keeping large amounts of cash sitting idle in various accounts to cover pending transfers, the company can deploy its capital more effectively.

Tokenized Assets Beyond Simple Cash Transfers

The expansion of the Kinexys brand signals a move into more complex financial products. While the initial focus was on moving US dollars and Euros, the bank is now introducing “Kinexys Digital Assets.”

This feature allows users to represent physical or financial assets as digital tokens on the blockchain. For a company like Mitsubishi, this could eventually mean tokenizing everything from cargo shipments to private credit agreements.

Reports note that this capability makes it easier to track ownership and trade assets without the heavy paperwork usually required in industrial commerce.

Officials said the platform is also adding a “Labs” feature to help clients build their own custom tools on top of the existing infrastructure. This is part of a broader push to make blockchain technology a standard part of the corporate back office.

Even though the technology is decentralized in its design, it remains under the strict control of the bank. This ensures that every participant is verified and every transaction meets international regulatory standards.

This ensures that every participant is verified and every transaction meets international regulatory standards. The goal is to provide the speed of a cryptocurrency network with the safety and oversight of a regulated multitrillion-dollar bank.

Featured image from The Equinix Blog, chart from TradingView

The remarks were delivered during Hoskinson’s most recent weekly rollup on YouTube, where he laid out what he believes is a deeper issue surrounding the bill and how it could change competition across the crypto sector.

Hoskinson Accuses Ripple Of Playing Dirty

According to Charles Hoskinson, the CLARITY Act, in its current form, was crafted with Ripple’s fingerprints on it. He is of the notion that the bill’s structure would classify most digital assets as securities by default, forcing projects to fight their way out of that designation through a regulatory process he warned the SEC could easily weaponize. “They’re trying to pass a bill that hurts the entire ecosystem while they get protected,” he said.

As noted by Hoskinson, if the CLARITY Act is passed, projects would need to prove otherwise, effectively placing the burden of defense on developers and startups from the outset.

Open-source contributors could face legal risks even when they are not directly responsible for how their code is used. He pointed to the legal exposure faced by developers connected to Tornado Cash as an example of what could become standard practice if the CLARITY Act passes in its current form. 

He also flagged the removal of existing protections for DeFi developers as a provision that would send a chilling signal across the entire community of crypto developers. 

Cardano Founder Says XRP Community Is Incapable Of Critical Thinking

Hoskinson also reserved some of his remarks for members of the XRP community. He accused Ripple directly of conducting a sustained campaign of layer after layer of marketing and propaganda. Furthermore, years of social media consumption, cable news, and yellow journalism have left segments of the XRP community with an inability to think critically. 

Hoskinson has been building this argument over several months, and his recent statements tie into a broader pattern of criticism against Ripple and the CLARITY Act. 

Back in early March, he noted that the CLARITY Act’s structure effectively labels everything as a security first, creating a system where only a few projects will be spared. He suggested that XRP could be among the assets that receive more favorable treatment under the framework proposed by the CLARITY Act.

His criticism against Brad Garlinghouse has also been very persistent. A notable example is during a January 2026 livestream where he questioned why the Ripple CEO is supportive of advancing the bill despite its perceived flaws.

Polymarket odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 have now fallen to 51%, down from above 78% in early March, following Coinbase’s opposition to a stablecoin yield compromise and the departure of crypto czar David Sacks from his role.

A New Crypto Coliseum?

The “casino degen” narrative that surrounds crypto trading in prediction and betting platforms is turning almost literal, thanks to prediction-market giant Polymarket. Despite recently being on the spotlight for heightened ethical concerns from legislators, Polymarket and legend.trade are presenting an e-sports‑inspired trading competition where crypto traders will battle it out in a live arena.

Serving as a metaphor for the current state of affairs in the crypto world, in this new event the market is literally used as the battleground (e.g. political, macro, crypto narrative markets), with traders taking positions on real‑world events that settle on‑chain. Let’s not forget that, not so long ago, Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned against this perspective of the crypto market.

Polymarket’s new venture aims to fuse together three hot narratives, such as prediction markets, social trading and e-sports, signaling a possible new direction for the platform amidst so many insider trading scandals.

Introducing the Legend Trade Series, presented by @Polymarket

April 16, 2026 – trading goes live on the esports stage 8 traders. 3 rounds. 1 winner.

Watch on Kick, X, and YouTube – or attend in NYC.

The first of many global trading esports events. pic.twitter.com/WrBKTaF6qd

— legend.trade (@legendtrade) March 30, 2026

The event, as announced in legend.trade’s official X account, is called Legend Trade Series and will happen in New York City on April 16. It is not hard to imagine that, just as many other e-sporting events, the competition will have tournament brackets or rounds, scheduled events, maybe team vs. team or influencer‑led squads, and a Twitch‑style viewing experience where the crowd can follow top accounts and react in real time.

Legend is social crypto trading platform that turns trading into a live, multiplayer “arena” where traders compete, share strategies, and surface alpha in real time. The platform’s core idea is to surface the best traders on the site so others can watch, learn from their decisions, and ultimately try to make money by following high‑signal players.

Despite being a first for prediction markets, this is not the first time platforms attempt to turn trading into an e-sport.

FX and CFD brokers have long run leaderboard-based trading competitions, but newer setups use dedicated “tournament infrastructure” with brackets, rankings, and prize pools to mimic esports formats. White‑label tools like Swiset let brokers host recurring trading tournaments, track performance metrics, and display real‑time leaderboards to drive engagement much like ranked multiplayer ladders. Platforms such as The Trading League explicitly brand themselves around “gamified trading tournaments,” where users compete in FX, stocks, crypto and commodities for cash, crypto, and gadget prizes.

Crypto venues and derivatives platforms periodically run global trading competitions tied to big events (World Cup, market cycles), featuring campaign names, marketing storylines, and prize ladders that borrow from esports culture. These events generally focus on volume or PnL over a set period, with public rankings and social hype, but the spectator element (casters, live production) has usually been thin compared with real esports.

Legend itself highlighted self-organizing live-trading competitions already happening in Korea.

In Korea, traders are now self-organizing live competitions almost every week

Last week alone, 100+ traders went head-to-head in a single competition on @legendtrade

This is what trading as an esport actually looks like pic.twitter.com/JcKkhb32Sy

— legend.trade (@legendtrade) March 30, 2026

Gamified trading consistently boosts engagement and acquisition, which is why brokers and prop firms keep leaning into tournaments, XP, badges and challenges, but regulators are wary: UK’s FCA and others have warned that game‑like features (tournaments, rewards, loot‑box‑style promos) can drive overtrading and risk‑taking, so anything that looks like “esports for trading” carries compliance risk.

Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

This fee waiver, which lasts until the end of 2026, aims to remove one of the biggest hurdles for small shops and local vendors who want to try new payment methods without losing money on transaction costs.

Instant Cash Conversions For Local Shops

The plan allows US merchants to accept Bitcoin while receiving US dollars in their accounts by default. This setup removes the risk of price swings that often make business owners nervous about digital assets.

When a customer pays at the counter, the system converts the crypto into cash immediately. Reports show that this feature requires no extra setup for those who qualify, and the money moves into the merchant’s balance almost instantly.

Connecting the ecosystem with @Square has been the dream since we launched bitcoin in @CashApp in 2018

Starting today, all merchants can now seamlessly stack bitcoin behind the scenes from their daily sales

Bitcoin Payments Acceptance will be live for everyone on November 10 pic.twitter.com/mTqbu8wfGG

— Miles (@milessuter) October 8, 2025

While the default setting is to receive cash, there is a choice for those who want to keep some of the digital currency. Owners can set their accounts to “stack” a portion of their daily sales in crypto instead of taking the full amount in dollars.

Data shows that the rollout began on Monday and should reach all eligible Square users by Nov. 10. Businesses based in New York are currently excluded from the program due to specific state regulations.

We’re making it easier for millions of businesses to accept bitcoin.

Starting today, eligible U.S. @Square sellers will begin having Bitcoin payments automatically enabled.

Sellers who accept bitcoin will receive USD as default.

This is how bitcoin as everyday money begins.

— Miles (@milessuter) March 30, 2026

Big Tech Moves Toward Everyday Crypto

Jack Dorsey, the head of Block, shared the news following an announcement from the company’s Bitcoin product lead, Miles Suter. The goal is to make these transactions feel like using “everyday money” for millions of businesses.

Block currently holds 8,883 BTC on its own books, which ranks it as the 14th-largest public holder of the asset. The company bought its supply at an average price of $32,939 per coin, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net.

The move by Square is part of a larger trend where financial companies are blending traditional banking with digital assets.

For instance, some mortgage lenders now allow people to use their crypto holdings to meet loan requirements without selling their coins first.

Other platforms like Coinbase and Kraken have also brought back programs that let users borrow cash against their Bitcoin.

Recent reports indicate that this shift is reaching into the housing market as well. Better Home & Finance recently teamed up with a major exchange to allow buyers to use their digital assets as collateral for down payments on home loans. This allows a homeowner to secure a mortgage while keeping their investment intact.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Midnight Launch Marks Major Cardano Ecosystem Milestone

The launch itself was formally announced by Midnight via X. The project said the genesis block had been produced and that developers, partners and institutions would now be able to deploy applications and migrate assets onto the network. The release lands on the timeline the team had previously outlined in February, when Midnight said mainnet was scheduled for late March 2026. It also follows the December 2025 launch of NIGHT, the network’s native token, on Cardano.

Hoskinson framed the current phase as a controlled production launch rather than an instant jump to open decentralization. He described Midnight as being in a “guarded era,” with a strong federated network and an active post-launch bug-fix queue already numbering more than 130 items. None, he said, were showstoppers, but the team expects to spend the next two to three weeks hardening the system while partners and developers begin building against a live environment.

That characterization matches Midnight’s official rollout plan. The foundation said the network is entering production through a phased application deployment period designed to prioritize operational stability and security before later stages of decentralization. In this initial setup, federated node operators run the core infrastructure under explicit participation rules, with the longer-term goal of progressing toward a more decentralized and permissionless model.

Midnight’s launch post highlights a roster of federated node partners that includes Worldpay, Bullish, MoneyGram, Pairpoint by Vodafone, eToro, AlphaTON Capital, Google Cloud, Blockdaemon and Shielded Technologies. That institutional mix is central to Midnight’s pitch: a privacy-preserving public blockchain intended to support live applications without asking enterprises to accept the data exposure typical of fully transparent ledgers.

Midnight’s technical proposition is built around programmable privacy. According to the project’s launch materials, the network combines public and private data through a hybrid ledger architecture, uses client-side generation of zero-knowledge proofs so sensitive data remains on user devices, and supports both shielded and unshielded assets depending on the application’s needs. The protocol also supports selective disclosure, allowing counterparties, auditors or regulators to view specific records when application logic requires it, without exposing all underlying transaction data by default.

Economically, Midnight is also trying to differentiate itself from conventional gas-token networks. The chain uses a dual-component model in which NIGHT acts as the unshielded governance and utility token, while DUST functions as the renewable transaction resource consumed by applications. Midnight says DUST regenerates over time based on NIGHT holdings, with a full recharge reached over seven days, a design meant to make transaction costs more predictable for businesses and allow developers to subsidize usage for end users.

Hoskinson used the livestream to pair the launch announcement with a broader educational push. He said he has published a free book, Proving Nothing: A Complete Guide to Zero-Knowledge Proof Systems, aimed at non-technical readers who want a comprehensive overview of how ZK systems work.

On the product side, Hoskinson said Lace would receive an update tied to Midnight mainnet support, with version 136.2 already submitted for approval at the browser extension store. He added that Lace v2 and a mobile release are both expected in April.

At press time, Cardano traded at $0.24.

Major ETH Stake by Ethereum Foundation

With the market still lingering in a bearish state, the frenzy around Ethereum’s price has cooled down and shifted toward a more dynamic trend. However, A recent notable move by the Ethereum Foundation is attracting attention to the staking activity across the ETH network, which appears to be experiencing substantial growth over the past few months.

Crypto commentator and investor Kyle Chasse has taken to X to report a massive staking from the Foundation, which saw $42.2 million worth of ETH being locked away in staking contracts. This development coincides with an increase in staking participation as more holders, especially institutional, decide to lock up their assets in exchange for yield.

By allocating a sizeable portion of ETH to staking, the Ethereum Foundation is showcasing its robust confidence in the network’s economics and security in the long term. With these persistent large ETH staking from The Foundation and other large institutions across the sector, the expert believes that the altcoin could change forever.

According to the expert, the Foundation made the move as Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum, gave an open statement about changing ETH’s direction. This revelation from the founder carries major weight since it will reshape the altcoin and its network’s future.

Chasse stated that there is still a lot to build, and a pivot like this is capable of redefining the entire ETH ecosystem. However, this move still poses some real risk if it eventually fails at execution. In the event that the team discovers the right angle and delivers real utility, this plan could go down as one of the most crucial moves in crypto history.

ETH Is Being Locked Away Everywhere

A market expert with the nickname AltCryptoGems has outlined the magnitude of Ethereum staking after multiple moves. While ETH is getting sold on the chart, the leading altcoin is being staked across the sector. Currently, nearly 3 million ETH is sitting around to be staked, with the entry queue now around 50 days.

At the same time, the exit queue has almost vanished as very few are leaving, which indicates a clear imbalance. If confidence were weak, exits would have spiked, causing staking to slow down. However, the opposite is happening as participants are locking ETH for months at a 2.7% yield.

Total ETH staked has now surpassed 38 million, representing over 31% of the entire supply. Meanwhile, this number continues to increase despite declining price action. ETH’s price is demonstrating weakness, but participation is showing strength, a classic disconnection that does not last long. Supply may be getting locked away, but demand is building.

When The Solana Price Could Hit $360

A detailed technical analysis shared by market expert Celal Kucuker on X has sparked renewed optimism around Solana’s price outlook. The analyst shared a chart showing the SOL price around $88 at the time. He also outlined a clear roadmap that points to a potential final surge near $360 for the cryptocurrency. 

The chart reveals a dominant bearish channel defined by several parallel red descending trendlines that shaped Solana’s price action from late 2025 through early 2026. These lines have repeatedly capped rallies and guided SOL’s downtrend, while also respecting the critical resistance point around $147.15. 

Following the cryptocurrency’s rally to $147, it recorded a massive price crash to $66.92, marking the first floor of its Double Bottom pattern, as shown on the chart. Based on the trajectory of black lines within the descending parallel channel, Kucuker expects Solana to rally again to $111.32 in the near term, representing a roughly 66% increase from the previous bottom. 

Once this happens, SOL is projected to plunge even deeper toward $50.42, officially completing its bearish Double Bottom pattern. Kucuker has highlighted this area as a solid support zone. From this pivotal low, the analyst drew a black, upward-sloping line that cleanly slices through the entire bearish descending channel. 

This line points directly to the $361.47 bullish target. Kucuker’s timing for this projection suggests that Solana could skyrocket to this level by 2027. However, the chart shows somewhere around the third quarter of 2026. Notably, such a move would deliver a staggering 616% gain from the projected $50.42 support level. 

Additional targets in the chart analysis further reinforce Kucuker’s bullish outlook. The analyst drew multiple horizontal lines on the chart to mark key resistance zones that may influence price movement. The first red line points to $130 as an immediate resistance level, which comes into play once the price surpasses the initial target of $111.32. Beyond this, the next black line identifies $260 as the next major resistance level that, if broken, could confirm Solana’s projected price rally above $360.  

The Thesis Behind The Bull Rally

A crypto community member has challenged Kucuker’s bullish forecast for Solana, questioning why he posted price targets and charts without explaining the underlying thesis. They asked the analyst to explain which macroeconomic factors could push the SOL price above $360 and which could drive it down to the $50 support level. 

In response, Kucuker pointed to broader market dynamics, noting that price rallies often start with meme coins, which typically generate momentum across the market. He noted that Solana will likely benefit from this upward movement, potentially propelling it to new all-time highs. 

In less than a year, the company’s market capitalization has plunged from a peak near $24 billion to roughly $180 million — a decline of about 99.3% that has wiped out roughly $23.3 billion in value. 

Heavy Q4 Mark‑downs  

In its late‑Monday report, Nakamoto reported a $142.6 million loss in the fair value of its digital assets during the fourth quarter, alongside a $10.8 million investment loss tied to its stake in another Bitcoin‑treasury firm, Metaplanet. 

The company said it entered 2025 with a mandate to build a public, Bitcoin‑native enterprise, completing its public listing via a merger with KindlyMD and expanding its footprint through acquisitions of BTC Inc and UTXO. 

“We established a robust Bitcoin treasury, built a scalable capital strategy, and… transitioned into a fully integrated Bitcoin operating business with the scale and infrastructure to drive sustained growth,” CEO David Bailey said in the statement.

Despite that strategic framing, recent filings revealed more troubling operational details. Analysts at Bull Theory flagged the sale of $20 million worth of Bitcoin at an average sale price near $70,000 — assets the company had originally acquired at an average cost basis of $118,000. 

That transaction crystallized a roughly 40% loss on those coins and underscored a central problem: Bitcoin is trading far below Nakamoto’s cost basis, shrinking the value of the company’s treasury while liabilities and financing structures remain in place.

Financing Fragility At Nakamoto

The company’s capital structure has also magnified its vulnerability. At launch, Nakamoto raised $510 million via a private investment in public equity (PIPE) and an additional $200 million in senior secured convertible notes. 

In December 2025, the firm refinanced its convertible debt with a $210 million Bitcoin‑backed loan from crypto exchange Kraken. That loan is secured by the same Bitcoin that has since fallen to roughly 40% below Nakamoto’s purchase price, exposing the company to margin and solvency pressures if prices remain depressed.

With the stock price trading under $1 for more than 30 consecutive days, Nakamoto is now non‑compliant with Nasdaq listing rules. If the situation is not remedied, the company faces a probable delisting effective June 8, 2026. 

The potential removal from the exchange would further constrict Nakamoto’s already limited access to capital and reduce liquidity for shareholders, creating a vicious cycle. 

A weak stock price limits the company’s ability to raise equity to shore up its balance sheet or buy back discounted Bitcoin, which in turn undermines the principal advantage of the treasury‑model business that Nakamoto has pursued.

Bull Theory’s analysts summarized the predicament bluntly: the Bitcoin treasury model depends on three things lining up — a sufficiently low cost basis for BTC, a strong stock price that enables capital raises, and continuous access to financing. 

If any one of these elements breaks, the model can rapidly unwind. At Nakamoto, all three have deteriorated: Bitcoin is trading well below the firm’s acquisition cost, the equity value has collapsed, and access to fresh capital has become effectively unavailable amid delisting risk.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A Hacker With An Unusual Shopping List

Jonathan Spalletta surrendered to authorities Monday after the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York unsealed an indictment against him. Agents who searched his home found the collectibles. The items were seized. Spalletta now faces up to 30 years in prison if convicted on all charges — one count of computer fraud and one count of money laundering.

The case centers on two separate attacks against Uranium Finance, a now-defunct crypto exchange that operated on the BNB blockchain. Both hacks happened in April 2021, just weeks apart, and together they wiped out tens of millions of dollars in user funds. The platform never recovered.

“Stealing from a crypto exchange is stealing – the claim that ‘crypto is different’ does not chang that,’” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton. “For the victims, there is nothing different about having your money taken.”https://t.co/jSaPJ0F5LR pic.twitter.com/TbQ1mLfOYp

— US Attorney SDNY (@SDNYnews) March 30, 2026

The first attack, on April 8, was relatively minor by crypto-crime standards. A bad actor exploited a smart contract flaw and walked away with $1.4 million. The two sides eventually reached a private agreement, and all but $386,000 was returned. Then, 20 days later, Spalletta allegedly came back for more.

The Second Strike Killed The Platform

The April 28 attack was on another level. According to prosecutors, Spalletta exploited a coding error in Uranium Finance’s withdrawal system, hitting 26 separate liquidity pools in a single sweep. He made off with $53.3 million in Bitcoin, Ether, and the platform’s own U92 token. The exchange shut down shortly after. Victims were left with little information and no recourse.

Uranium Finance had launched just days before the first hack, during the 2021 bull market. It was built as a fork of Uniswap, a well-known automated trading protocol. The platform never got a chance to grow. By the end of April, it was gone.

Federal investigators worked the case for years behind the scenes. In early 2025, authorities recovered $31 million in cryptocurrency tied to the hack but offered no public explanation at the time. Monday’s indictment filled in the details.

US Attorney Jay Clayton made clear his office views crypto theft the same as any other financial crime. “Stealing from a crypto exchange is stealing,” Clayton said. “For the victims, there is nothing different about having your money taken.” He added that Spalletta caused real losses for real people and is now under real arrest.

Spalletta appeared before US Magistrate Ona Wang on Monday to formally hear the charges. Data from the broader crypto industry puts the 2021 hack in context — bad actors stole an estimated $2.6 billion through various exploits that year alone. The biggest was a $610 million breach of the Poly Network, though the hacker in that case eventually returned the funds.

The Uranium Finance victims have waited nearly five years for answers. Monday’s indictment was a start.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin And Ethereum Are In Major Crypto Outflow

After several weeks of steady inflows, the cryptocurrency market has finally recorded a day of outflows as investors pull funds. Such a development is typically seen as a potential shift in investors’ sentiment across the highly volatile market.

As outlined in Milk Road’s report, this marks the first significant capital outflow in 5 weeks, raising questions about the market’s direction. Funds that had continuously invested in digital assets, especially well-known cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, are now starting to turn around.

A single week of outflows doesn’t always indicate a larger trend, but it frequently indicates that investors are becoming more cautious. However, this could shift investors’ focus toward the sustainability of crypto’s recent momentum. 

Milk Road highlighted that over $414 million left the sector last week, putting an end to a stream that had bulls feeling more excited about the market. Underneath the surface, the United States led the selling activity with $445 million in outflows. Meanwhile, other regions such as Germany and Canada moved in the opposite direction to the US, buying the dip while American investors were heading for the exit.

In this bloodbath, Ethereum led the selling activity, recording approximately $222 million in outflows. According to Milk Road, this figure represents more than half of the total weekly rain emerging from a single asset.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is telling a different story compared to Ethereum. Even though the week was rough, Bitcoin still managed to attract over $964 million in net inflows year-to-date (YTD). However, investors panicked as the asset reacted strongly negatively to economic and macro events.

Taking a look at the market, this cautious investor sentiment can be traced back to two major catalysts, which include rising rate expectations and Iran war fears. When both negative events meet, it often leads to institutions pulling away from risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum very fast. 

What Bulls And Bears Are Calling For

As the event intensified, the crypto market was the first thing to get trimmed, prompting bears to call this the beginning of a trend reversal. For bulls, they will point to the BTC YTD figure and declare that one bad week does not mean anything significant. Milk Road noted that both ideas make a point. 

One week of outflows does not mean the multi-week trend will not continue, but it does reduce momentum and make sellers more alert. In the meantime, the next test is whether the next two weeks produce more of the same or whether this was just institutions getting spooked by speculative headlines that carry no real significance.

If Iran tensions ease and rates stay put, the inflow streak will probably resume and continue in the following weeks. Sustained inflows will likely recover momentum for digital assets, with Bitcoin and Ethereum transitioning into the upward direction again.

Ripple’s CTO Emeritus X Posts Reveal Coinbase XRP Listing Saga

Crypto pundit Digital Asset Investor drew attention to old X posts from the Ripple executive in which he discussed the Coinbase XRP listing story and a hypothetical scenario in which Ripple was asked to pay listing fees for XRP. In the first X post, which was made back in May 2023, Schwartz said, “The story of Coinbase listing XRP is the only story I most wish I could tell that I can’t.”

The Ripple CTO Emeritus’ statement was in response to a question by another X user who asked how much the firm likely paid Coinbase to list XRP. This has raised speculations that the exchange may have initially refused to list XRP. In June 2023, Schwartz made another X post in which he described a “hypothetical” scenario in which an exchange refused to list XRP despite it being in its interest. 

Instead, the exchange asked Ripple to pay millions before it could list XRP and told Ripple it would have listed XRP a while ago if the crypto firm hadn’t existed. The CTO Emeritus said they finally reached an agreement with the exchange, and then the exchange listed XRP. Upon XRP’s listing, Schwartz said the altcoin accounted for 20% of the exchange’s revenue. 

Schwartz’s prior post in May 2023, in which he mentioned Coinbase, has led members of the XRP community to conclude that the Ripple CTO Emeritus was likely referring to Coinbase in the hypothetical scenario he painted. 

The Impact Of The SEC Lawsuit

It is worth noting that Coinbase had listed XRP before the SEC lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020, but moved to delist the token in 2021 as the lawsuit took shape. This was based on the SEC’s claim that XRP was a security. The crypto exchange then relisted XRP in July 2023 after Judge Analisa Torres declared that XRP wasn’t a security. 

In his hypothetical scenario, Schwartz said that a litigation adversary used the fact that they paid money for XRP’s listing to imply that the crypto firm was using money to unfairly boost XRP’s adoption or liquidity. However, the CTO Emeritus said they simply paid the money to avoid their existence hurting the XRP ecosystem. The XRP price was negatively impacted during the lawsuit, which lasted for five years. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.32, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The presentation centered on what Qubic calls its internal “Doge Connect” architecture, a bridge that links external Scrypt miners to Qubic’s network while redirecting Qubic’s own CPU and GPU resources fully toward its AI initiative, Aigarth. Joetom said the system relies on a dispatcher that connects to pools, translates mining tasks between the Dogecoin and Qubic networks, validates shares, and feeds results back through Qubic’s infrastructure.

“So how does this work? We call it internally Dodge Connect,” he said. “We bridge basically the mining power from outside … with ASIC miners, we use the Scrypt algorithm and you can connect to any of the Qubic pools. So for you as a miner, nothing changes.”

That bridge is not limited to a single coin, at least in theory. Joetom said the task and messaging system was built generically enough that Qubic could support multiple chains or switch to other mineable assets later. For now, the focus is Dogecoin, with the longer-term goal of running Qubic’s AI research at full capacity while using outsourced mining as a revenue engine.

Qubic Starts Dogecoin Mining Transition

The rollout itself will happen in three stages, with each phase expected to last one to two weeks if testing goes as planned. Phase one begins on mainnet April 1 and is framed as a validation period, covering task distribution, solution handling, pool communications, and public statistics. During that phase, Qubic will reduce its current Monero “marathons” from three days per week to two, beginning a gradual shift away from XMR mining.

Joetom described the process as a controlled crossover rather than a hard cut. “We will reduce this starting with phase one to two days per week,” he said. “So they will basically cross each other and at the end of phase two the Monero stuff will be removed.”

By the final state, he said, the network is meant to reach “100% AI training and 100% outsourced mining.” In practice, that means Qubic’s CPUs and GPUs would be dedicated to Aigarth research, while Dogecoin mining would be handled externally by ASIC miners connected through Qubic pools.

Qubic “Doge Mining” AMA https://t.co/80Q03DL3M8

— Qubic (@_Qubic_) March 30, 2026

One of the more important economic details from the AMA was the payout model. Rather than distributing DOGE directly, Qubic plans to sell outsourced mining proceeds for stablecoins, use those funds to buy back Cubics, and then redistribute Cubics to miners. Joetom called the mechanism a “buyback” system and said the team expects it to make mining through Qubic more attractive than mining Dogecoin alone.

“We assume that we will see an acceleration for the DOGE revenue,” he said. “Meaning that the Qubic revenue when you mine DOGE via Qubic you will see approximately 10% more revenue than if you would go only for doge.”

The technical path also leans heavily on Qubic’s oracle infrastructure. Shares submitted through the network are validated internally, with oracle machines acting as the source of truth for whether a mined share is accepted. That makes the integration more than a simple mining proxy; it effectively routes Dogecoin-related work through Qubic’s own validation and accounting model.

For miners, the immediate takeaway is operational rather than conceptual. Joetom said older hardware such as Antminer L3 units can still participate, even if newer machines like the L9 offer stronger economics. Public testing is expected to open April 1, with connection details to be shared through Qubic’s Discord and pool operators.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.09.

April 1 Marked As Key Date For Ripple’s Bank

Reports of an upcoming Ripple National Trust Bank continue to spread on social media, as market analysts and XRP advocates express excitement for April 1 as a key decision date for the crypto company. According to a filing on March 2, the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has officially finalized amendments to its original bank chartering rules, allowing national trust banks to perform non-fiduciary activities. This means Ripple’s bank will be able to hold and manage money or assets on behalf of someone else. 

The filing stated that the finalized rule was first issued on January 12, 2026, without any changes. It will officially take effect on April 1, 2026, making the date a key moment for Ripple and other companies that received conditional approval to operate as a national trust bank. Notably, the revision replaces the phrase “fiduciary activities” in the OCC’s rules with “the operations of a trust company and activities related thereto” when describing what national trust banks are allowed to do.

The regulator has clarified that these amendments were made to align with the language of the National Bank Act and to avoid any misunderstandings or misinterpretations that could lead to the wrongful imposition of restrictions on the activities of national trust banks.

In response to comments on the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPR), the OCC also said it would not change the existing rule to explicitly state that national trust banks need not perform fiduciary activities within their required scope. Instead, the regulator said it will review each charter application on its own merits and make its final decisions on a case-by-case basis.

How This Affects XRP And Its Ledger

In a post on X, market analyst ChartNerd announced that Ripple’s national trust bank is getting closer to becoming a reality. He explained that the upcoming bank could have a major impact on the XRP Ledger, enabling the blockchain network to connect to the Federal Reserve’s banking system. 

XRP supporters on X described the development as a remarkable milestone that could boost institutional adoption by giving the ledger a direct, regulated way to integrate into existing banking frameworks. Some community members also stated that once the bank begins operating, it could positively impact future XRP prices. In contrast, others suggested that the cryptocurrency could eventually become the new global banking standard.

That is the link Castle Island Ventures General Partner Nic Carter seized on in a series of X posts on Tuesday, arguing that the answer to what Google “saw” was this paper itself. The whitepaper, dated March 30 and co-authored by researchers from Google Quantum AI alongside Justin Drake and Dan Boneh, lays out updated estimates for attacking the secp256k1 curve that sits at the center of Bitcoin-era signature security.

Specifically, this paper. It’s a brand new resource estimate that’s wildly lower than prior estimates of what it would take to break ECC-256. Featuring the Google Quantum AI team + Justin Drake + Dan Boneh https://t.co/dYRld7HbJY pic.twitter.com/qXlAvzBQkv

— nic carter (@nic_carter) March 31, 2026

In Google’s formulation, Shor’s algorithm could solve the target problem with either no more than 1,200 logical qubits and 90 million Toffoli gates, or no more than 1,450 logical qubits and 70 million Toffoli gates. On a superconducting architecture, the authors say those circuits could run in minutes with fewer than half a million physical qubits.

That is the real shock to the Bitcoin threat model. Google’s March 25 blog post said the company moved to a 2029 migration target because of progress in quantum hardware, error correction and quantum factoring resource estimates, and said it had already adjusted its threat model to prioritize post-quantum migration for authentication services. The crypto paper then gave markets a concrete reason for why that deadline may have moved.

The paper is also unusual in how it handles disclosure. Rather than publishing the attack circuits in full, the authors say they used a zero-knowledge proof to validate the results without leaking sensitive details. Google framed that as a responsible-disclosure choice in a field where public discussion can itself create fear and instability, especially when the assets in question are bearer instruments with no recourse layer.

That choice fed directly into the reaction on X. Dragonfly’s managing partner Haseeb Qureshi called the result “wild,” writing: “Google Research demonstrates a ~20x more efficient implementation of Shor’s algorithm that could break ECDSA keys within minutes with ~500K physical qubits. Google is now are more confident on a 2029 post-quantum transition. We are no longer looking at mid 2030s, we could have quantum computers of this scale by the end of the decade.”

He added that Google’s decision not to publish the actual circuits, and instead publish a proof that they exist. “They believe this result is so severe that they are not publishing the actual circuits. They instead published a ZKP proving that they know of the quantum circuit with these properties. This is very atypical, showing Google thinks this is serious shit. All blockchains need a transition plan ASAP. Post-quantum is no longer a drill,” he added.

This is wild. Google Research demonstrates a ~20x more efficient implementation of Shor’s algorithm that could break ECDSA keys within minutes with ~500K physical qubits.

Google is now are more confident on a 2029 post-quantum transition. We are no longer looking at mid 2030s,… https://t.co/jGzFk5uLc0 pic.twitter.com/O4V1VbiXkf

— Haseeb ＞|＜ (@hosseeb) March 31, 2026

Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake pushed the same point even further. “Today is a monumentous day for quantum computing and cryptography. Two breakthrough papers just landed,” he wrote. “The results are shocking. I expect a narrative shift and a further R&D boost toward post-quantum cryptography.”

In a separate post, he added: “My confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly. IMO there’s at least a 10% chance that by 2032 a quantum computer recovers a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key. While a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer before 2030 still feels unlikely, now is undoubtedly the time to start preparing.”

Today is a monumentous day for quantum computing and cryptography. Two breakthrough papers just landed (links in next tweet). Both papers improve Shor’s algorithm, infamous for cracking RSA and elliptic curve cryptography. The two results compound, optimising separate layers of…

— Justin Drake (@drakefjustin) March 31, 2026

For Bitcoin specifically, the most important part of the paper is not some vague future threat to “crypto,” but the distinction it draws between attacks on dormant or exposed keys and attacks on live transactions. The authors argue that fast-clock architectures such as superconducting and photonic systems could eventually enable “on-spend” attacks, where a public key exposed during transaction flow is broken quickly enough to race the original payment into a block.

Their estimate explicitly says fast-clock systems could solve ECDLP in about nine minutes on average, putting Bitcoin’s roughly 10-minute block cadence uncomfortably close to the attack window. The paper points to private mempools and commit-reveal schemes as possible mitigations, but treats migration to post-quantum cryptography as the actual answer.

Just as important, Google tries to narrow the panic. The paper says quantum attacks on Bitcoin proof-of-work via Grover’s algorithm are not a practical concern “in the next several decades,” arguing that discussion should stay focused on signatures, not mining. That matters because it shifts the debate away from network collapse scenarios and toward wallet design, key exposure, mempool privacy and upgrade coordination.

The broader message is hard to miss. Google’s paper ends by urging “all vulnerable cryptocurrency communities to join the migration to PQC without delay,” and its separate security timeline now points to 2029, not some comfortably distant date in the mid-2030s.

Bitcoin has spent years treating quantum risk as a long-range problem. What changed this week is that a major quantum lab put a much tighter engineering estimate around the threat, and some of the sector’s most technically literate observers immediately started talking less about whether the transition will be needed and more about how fast it has to begin.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,475.

An Authoritarian Crypto Restriction?

On Monday, the Russian Ministry of Finance said in a press release that Moscow had greenlit a bundle of draft laws to legalize the circulation of digital currencies and digital rights inside Russia.

Retail “non‑qualified” investors now face an annual purchase limit of about ₽300,000 (around $3,700) per broker or intermediary,and can only access a narrow list of high‑liquidity coins approved by the central bank.

Trading without intermediaries is also banned. Banks will not be allowed to process payments to unlicensed foreign platforms. Qualified investors can keep broad access and no caps but must still pass tests and go through licensed platforms.

As the press release states it:

The regulation prohibits transactions involving digital currencies without regulated intermediaries. However, residents are permitted to purchase digital currencies abroad, paying from foreign accounts, and transfer foreign currency purchased through Russian intermediaries. Residents will be required to notify the Federal Tax Service of Russia of any foreign transactions.

Russia is joining a broader trend of countries tolerating crypto only under banking‑style licenses, turning exchanges into tightly supervised gatekeepers instead of open platforms.

This announcement follows the legislation targeting a full framework around mid‑2026, with liability and penalties for illegal intermediaries ramping up into 2027, as covered by Bitcoinist.

The new package of bills effectively shuts down Russia’s gray P2P and OTC market and cuts off most citizens from global exchanges like Bybit, OKX and other unlicensed offshore venues. The Kremlin wants to pull flows onshore, tax them, tighten AML controls and protect the ruble, while keeping crypto banned for domestic payments and pushing the digital ruble as the “safe” alternative.

Russian retailers should expect loss of access to long‑tail altcoins, fragmented liquidity across “friendly” jurisdictions, heavier surveillance, and higher friction for cross‑border transfers.

In global markets, a reduced Russian flow on major offshore exchanges could slightly dent volumes in some pairs, but the bigger story is the precedent: if more large economies adopt “intermediaries only” models, the free‑wheeling P2P era in crypto could be in structural decline.

Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSDT chart from Tradingview

Why Whale Buying Is Very Bullish For XRP

Historically, large whale XRP buying has usually marked the bottom of a downtrend, leading to a reversal of the trend. This has been the case in the past bear/bull markets, where the whale buying has often stopped the bleed for the altcoin.

The crypto analyst points out that the whales have actually been accumulating the digital asset for a while now, going as far back as one year. This accumulation began with the 2025 high and has continued as the cryptocurrency’s price has drawn down.

Interestingly, these large whale orders have dominated the XRP buying in one year now, showing that these large investors are ramping up their holdings. As the crypto analyst explains, this means that the whales are actually preparing for the cryptocurrency to go into another bull market.

Mostly the buys have been around the $1.3-$3 level, which is where the most buying has occurred. Pointing to the past, the crypto analyst explained that whales have previously bought XRP in the $0.3-$1.3 range, which happened before the 2024/2025 rally.

Another interest fact is the fact that these large whales have not been selling at all and have been focused on buying. This means that the coins are not moving out of the hands of the whale traders into the hands of retail traders.

Going by previous performance, such a trend, when done, could send the XRP price rallying again. The last time, there was a 500% rally resulting from the accumulation. A similar breakout would mean that the price would eventually cross above $7 before topping.

Japan’s Low‑Rate Model At Risk?

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), market expert Ted Pillows argued that Japan’s long-standing low-rate financial architecture makes its system especially vulnerable when long-term interest rates climb. 

The practical effect, he explained, is twofold. First, as 30‑year bond yields rise, borrowing costs increase across the economy. Second, the market value of existing long-dated bonds falls, producing mark-to-market losses for institutions such as banks and pension funds. 

Those losses can sap confidence, Pillows claimed, prompting financial institutions to hoard cash and pull back from lending and risk-taking—a process known as liquidity tightening.

Japan matters to global markets because, for decades, its ultra-low rates effectively supplied cheap capital to investors worldwide. Traders often borrowed yen at minimal cost and redeployed that capital into higher-yielding or riskier assets overseas. 

When Japanese yields climb, that carry trade becomes less attractive and can even reverse as investors unwind positions and repatriate funds. The result is a drain of liquidity from global markets at precisely the moment risk appetite is needed most.

Liquidity Shock Could Trigger New Crypto Sell‑Off

Crypto markets are particularly sensitive to swings in global liquidity, Pillows contends. Digital assets have benefited strongly over the past years from a steady flow of “easy money” that encouraged investors to chase higher returns. 

When liquidity tightens, investors typically de-risk by selling the most volatile holdings; cryptocurrencies and smaller altcoins often fall hardest because they are more speculative and less stable than major assets. 

A concurrent strengthening of the Japanese yen can compound the effect by reducing dollar liquidity available internationally, placing additional pressure on risk assets priced or financed in dollars.

Pillows cautioned that Japan need not be the sole cause of a market collapse to be consequential. Instead, rising Japanese yields can act as an accelerant for broader market moves that are already in motion. 

He noted, however, that this can run in both directions: heightened stress and falling asset prices often prompt central banks to step in. 

The Bank of Japan could respond by intervening to lower yields—either through bond purchases or other liquidity measures—which would restore capital flows and potentially fuel a sharp rebound in risk assets. 

In other words, the same mechanisms that can precipitate a downturn can later help power a new crypto bull run once liquidity is restored.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The timing comes amid an Easter recess that runs through April 13, but Terrett’s sources say lawmakers intend to unveil language resolving the politically sensitive dispute over the CLARITY Act stablecoin yield and rewards before members return to regular business.

Industry Pushes Back On CLARITY Act Restrictions

The latest draft reportedly aims to strike a compromise on how cryptocurrency platforms may offer rewards without prompting a flight of deposits from traditional banks. 

As Bitcoinist reported last week, the CLARITY Act would broadly bar platforms from offering yield “directly or indirectly” on stablecoins or on assets that operate like bank deposits. 

Lawmakers would still allow activity‑based incentives such as loyalty points and promotional offers in the CLARITY Act draft, while assigning regulators a one‑year window to define permitted incentives and establish anti‑evasion rules to prevent workarounds.

That restrictive approach has drawn a swift and visible reaction in the industry. Coinbase’s Global Head of Investment Research, David Duong, has said that industry participants are coordinating a counterproposal to explain why targeted changes are needed to protect customers and sustain workable rewards programs. 

However, a spokesperson for Senator Thom Tillis told Crypto In America that the new CLARITY Act text reflects ongoing conversations with industry groups, including banks. 

Key unresolved topics expected to shape the final negotiations include decentralized finance (DeFi) safeguards, token classification, and rules for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, according to Terrett.

New Crypto PAC In Town

The legislative manoeuvring has coincided with increased political organizing from within the crypto industry. Anchorage Digital and Chainlink (LINK) announced Monday the formation of a bipartisan hybrid political action committee (PAC), the Blockchain Leadership Fund, backed by members of the Digital Chamber. 

Per the firm’s release, the new fund plans to engage across federal, state, and local contests to support candidates and policymakers who favor durable, innovation‑friendly digital asset policy. An Anchorage Digital spokesperson stated: 

Crypto policy is being written right now and the companies that show up and engage will help define the rules of the road; the ones that don’t will inherit them. At Anchorage Digital, we’ve always believed that responsible innovation requires active participation, which is why we’re proud to support the Blockchain Leadership Fund at such a pivotal moment for the industry.

A Chainlink representative echoed that message, noting the unusually clear — but still fragile — legislative moment the sector faces. “The market structure bill [CLARITY Act] is where the real complexity lives, and the candidates willing to work through that complexity deserve sustained, organized support from the industry,” the spokesperson said. 

Chainlink added that its institutional partners are building on blockchain infrastructure and that the Blockchain Leadership Fund will help ensure the policy environment can scale that adoption.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto-Funded Drone Purchases Linked To Russia, Iran

On Monday, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis revealed that groups affiliated with Russia and Iran are utilizing crypto to fund the acquisition of low-cost military drones and their components.

The firm traced crypto flows from individual wallets linked to various paramilitary groups to the purchase of affordable drones and related components from vendors on e-commerce platforms.

According to the report, low-cost, commercially available drones have become central to modern conflict, enabling both state and non-state actors, including pro-Russia militias and Iran-backed terrorist organizations.

Most purchases use traditional financial channels, but Chainalysis noted that drone procurement networks are ⁠increasingly intersecting with the blockchain. As the firm explained, crypto can enter the drone procurement picture directly or indirectly. In the first scenario, a drone manufacturer openly accepts digital assets as payment on its website.

In the second scenario, electronics and dual-use component vendors that sell through third-party e-commerce platforms like Alibaba accept digital assets to sell drones and their parts to buyers whose identities and intended use are unclear.

The report found that Iran-linked groups have been using crypto to acquire drone components and sell military equipment, highlighting a wallet associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that purchased drone parts from a Hong Kong-based supplier.

As reported by Bitcoinist in January, Iran’s Ministry of Defence Export Center (Mindex), the state arms export arm, openly offered to accept crypto as payment for military hardware, including drones, air defense systems, warships, and ballistic missiles.

Paramilitary Groups ‘Crowdfund The Frontline’

Chainalysis also emphasized that the “most publicly visible crypto-drone nexus operates at the militia level, through open crowdfunding campaigns on social media platforms.”

The blockchain analytics firm has identified dozens of pro-Russia volunteer and paramilitary organizations asking for crypto donations for military equipment since Russia invaded Ukraine in ​2022.

Over the past four years, the pro-Russia groups have raised more than $8.3 million in these donations across various blockchains to purchase drones and associated components from global e-commerce platforms.

On-chain evidence shows Russian militia fundraising groups purchasing from a Hong Kong-based drone manufacturer and drone purchasers acquiring liquidity from Russian-language no-Know Your Client (KYC) exchanges, the sanctioned Russian exchanges Garantex and Grinex, and a Federation Tower-based OTC service.

To the firm, this strongly suggests that Russia-linked actors may have acquired drones from Chinese manufacturers for deployment in Ukraine. Chainalysis also matched crypto transactions between $2,200-$3,500 to the exact prices of drones and their components on ​e-commerce platforms. 

“The striking point is not the dollar figure, but the logic. At the militia level, low-cost commercial drones are among the most tactically significant items crowdfunded crypto can buy,” the report affirmed.

“At $2,200–$3,500 per unit, a single successful fundraising campaign translates directly into battlefield capability for groups that cannot access conventional finance,” it continued.

The firm underscored that the blockchain offers new opportunities to trace these flows and obtain a better understanding of how emerging technologies are “transforming the economics of conflict.”

“On the blockchain, there’s this incredible opportunity, once you have ‌identified the ⁠vendor to see the counterparty activity and make assessments that help clarify that utilization and the intent behind the purchase,” Andrew Fierman, Chainalysis’s head of national security intelligence, told Reuters

An XRP Voice Warns Against Inaction

Reacting to Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s interview with Maria Bartiromo, Deaton wrote a lengthy post on the social media X today, expressing his worries and concerns regarding the direction crypto policy in the U.S. is taking.

One thing @bgarlinghouse said to @MariaBartiromo that I completely agree with – is that American companies and our financial markets cannot afford to experience Gensler 2.0. And the only way to guarantee that we don’t – is by passing legislation.

Look, no one despises the… https://t.co/H958StIpRY pic.twitter.com/tOdj4N5wlJ

— John E Deaton (@JohnEDeaton1) March 30, 2026

In his interview with Bartirmoro for Fox Business, Garlinghouse warned that if the U.S. keeps dragging its feet, American companies and capital markets will bleed out to friendlier jurisdictions while Washington fixates on the wrong crypto battles.

Bartimoro positioned the discussion around U.S. competitiveness and regulatory chaos, echoing a long‑running Fox Business narrative that America is “losing the race” on digital assets.

Ripple CEO warns against weaponization of crypto policy: ‘We can’t have another Gary Gensler moment’ | https://t.co/hc5WMt0boT @MorningsMaria @FoxBusiness

— Maria Bartiromo (@MariaBartiromo) March 27, 2026

Ripple and XRP holders have lived through that chaos first‑hand, from the SEC fight to today’s policy vacuum.

This is why Deaton seizes on Garlinghouse’s warning. In the middle of a heated fight over Trump’s CBDC ban order and years of media‑driven CBDC panic, Deaton argues that the only way to stop a future surveillance‑style CBDC is through hard legislation passed by Congress.

American companies and our financial markets cannot afford to experience Gensler 2.0. And the only way to guarantee that we don’t – is by passing legislation.

For Deaton, a “Gensler 2.0” means a future regulator who uses aggressive “regulation by enforcement” instead of clear rulemaking, like Gensler did with Ripple, XRP, LBRY, Coinbase and others, and treats most tokens as securities by default, keeping the industry in a constant defensive posture.

The only durable way to block a U.S. surveillance CBDC is an explicit act of Congress that ties the Fed’s hands, Deaton argues.

But as much progress, guidance, and clarity, @PaulSAtkiinsSEC and  @MichaelSelig have provided to the markets, without legislation passed into law – all that guidnace [sic] and clarity can be taken away – as if it never happened – when a new administration takes over.

The XRP advocate finishes his post with a reminder of who is to become Chair of the Senate Banking Comittee which oversees the SEC: Elizabeth Warren. Warren built her brand as a tough Wall Street and big‑bank watchdog. In crypto, she is famous for claiming she is “building an anti‑crypto army”, backing tough bills like the Digital Asset Anti‑Money Laundering Act and pushing amendments that critics say favor banks and restrict digital assets.

We need strong crypto regulation – not an industry giveaway that puts our economy at risk and supercharges President Trump’s corruption. pic.twitter.com/6sVbwMiSFf

— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) August 10, 2025

Both Deaton and Garlinghouse warn that regulatory drift is already driving talent, liquidity and innovation offshore, and that the U.S. risks watching the next generation of financial plumbing get built in Europe, Asia or the Middle East instead.

Clarity on XRP’s status and broader digital‑asset law in the U.S. is already shifting flows into assets seen as “safer” from enforcement risk. Further statutory wins could reinforce that capital rotation.

Cover image from Perplexity, XRPUSDT chart from Tradingview

A GugaOnChain analysis published on CryptoQuant places the current moment in a historical frame that demands attention: Brent crude has consolidated above $100, geopolitical tension is threatening the Strait of Hormuz, and approximately 30% of the world’s oil supply now faces critical logistical risk. The last time the global energy system looked this constrained, it did not end quietly for financial markets.

The analysis carries a central thesis that is both bold and specific: while physical energy logistics are effectively locked by geography and conflict, Bitcoin’s infrastructure operates outside those constraints entirely. No blockade reaches a distributed network. No embargo affects a neutral liquidity rail. In a world where the movement of physical assets is increasingly politicized, Bitcoin’s immunity to geographical restriction is not a theoretical property — it is a live advantage.

The risk the analysis does not dismiss is the one that matters most in the short term. A global deleveraging event — forced liquidations across traditional markets to cover margin — carries a 45-50% probability according to GugaOnChain. When institutions sell what they can rather than what they want to, Bitcoin is rarely spared.

$12 Billion Is Telling a Story. Most of It Is Not on Exchanges

GugaOnChain’s on-chain segmentation of the $12.34 billion in institutional activity reveals a supply structure that the price chart alone cannot show. Of that total, 93.83% — approximately $11.57 billion — has moved through OTC channels rather than exchanges.

That is not routine portfolio management. That is, institutions deliberately removing Bitcoin from the visible market, locking it as a strategic reserve against the cost-push inflation the energy shock is already generating. Smart money is not panic-selling into the macro dislocation. It is using the panic to accumulate at scale, out of sight.

What remains on exchanges is the critical detail. Only $761 million — 6.17% of the institutional flow — is exposed to direct exchange volatility. With the order book this shallow, GugaOnChain estimates the probability of a sharp move exceeding 8% in response to a geopolitical trigger at over 70%. The fuel for a violent move exists on both sides.

The $65,000–$70,000 region carries a 65% probability of holding as structural support — provided global credit markets do not capitulate. If they do, the analysis identifies $54,000 as the systemic stress scenario.

April 6th is named as the catalyst date. Derivative hedges are recommended. The analysis treats what follows not as a trading event but as a global liquidity solvency test — and advises positioning accordingly.

Bitcoin Tests 2021 Cycle High

Bitcoin is now trading around the $67,000 level, directly testing what was previously the 2021 cycle high, a historically significant level that has now transitioned into a critical support zone. This area represents a key structural pivot, where past resistance is being evaluated as potential long-term support.

From a macro perspective, BTC remains in a corrective phase following its rejection from the $100,000–$120,000 region. The chart shows a clear loss of momentum, with price breaking below the 50-week moving average and currently hovering near the 100-week moving average, which is acting as an intermediate support. Meanwhile, the 200-week moving average continues to trend upward well below the current price, reinforcing the broader bullish structure despite recent weakness.

The importance of the current level cannot be overstated. Holding above the 2021 high would signal a successful retest of a major breakout zone, a pattern often associated with continuation in long-term uptrends. However, failure to hold this region could open the door to a deeper correction toward the $60,000–$62,000 range.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitmine Has Continued Its Aggressive Ethereum Accumulation

As announced in a press release, Bitmine participated in additional Ethereum buying during the last week. In total, the firm has added 71,179 ETH with this accumulation spree, worth nearly $146 million right now. The purchase is larger than the recent weekly average for the company. “Bitmine has maintained the increased pace of ETH buys in each of the past four weeks, as our base case is ETH is in the final stages of the ‘mini-crypto winter,'” said Thomas “Tom” Lee, Bitmine chairman.

Originally a Bitcoin mining-focused firm, Bitmine pivoted to an Ethereum treasury strategy in mid-2025. Since then, the firm has followed in the footsteps of Michael Saylor’s Strategy, continuously accumulating ETH even as the bearish market shift has occurred.

The sector has faced an especially high degree uncertainty recently with the war situation in Iran. Lee pointed out, however, that crypto has held up well even as the war enters its 5th week, with ETH outperforming equities by 1,160 basis points. In contrast, Gold, the traditional safe-haven, has underperformed by more than 750 basis points. “Crypto is demonstrating itself to be a good ‘war time’ store of value,” noted the Bitmine chairman.

Following the latest addition, Bitmine’s Ethereum reserves have grown to 4,732,082 ETH, equivalent to 3.92% of the cryptocurrency’s total supply in circulation. The firm has set a goal of 5% of the supply, so at the current figure, it’s already over 78% of its way to the target in just eight months.

Lately, Bitmine has also been putting its ETH toward staking to earn some passive income through the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) contract. Unlike BTC, where miners secure the network, ETH is instead protected by stakers, validators who put forward some initial ‘stake’ to take part in consensus-making. Just like how miners earn rewards for mining blocks, stakers also get rewards when they add a block to the chain.

According to the press release, Bitmine has a total of 3,142,643 ETH staked right now, representing 66% of the total reserves held by the company. “Bitmine has staked more ETH than other entities in the world,” said Lee.

Bitmine isn’t the only organization locking its ETH in the PoS contract. As highlighted by Arkham in an X post, the Ethereum Foundation, a non-profit group dedicated to supporting the ETH blockchain, has just transferred $46.2 million worth of the cryptocurrency to the staking deposit contract. “This is more ETH than they have EVER staked before,” explained Arkham.

ETH Price

Ethereum dropped under the $2,000 level earlier, but the coin has opened the new week with recovery back above $2,060.

Top analyst Darkfost has published findings that reframe the current altcoin environment not as a temporary setback but as something structurally worse: more than 40% of altcoins have either reached their all-time low or are approaching it with nothing visible standing between them and it.

That figure has now surpassed the peak reading from the previous bear market, which topped out at approximately 38%. This cycle — the one that was supposed to deliver the altseason — has produced more all-time low readings than the last one did at its worst.

The context Darkfost provides is unsparing. Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, and the volatility that creates across financial markets is falling disproportionately on the most vulnerable assets. Altcoins sit at the bottom of that hierarchy. They absorb the fear first, recover last, and in this cycle, many have not recovered at all.

The altcoin market has not just underperformed. It has, for a significant portion of its assets, effectively reset to zero. That is not a correction. That is a reckoning.

The Macro Is Not the Whole Story. The Real Problem Has 47 Million Parts

Darkfost is direct about what most market commentary is missing. Yes, the macro environment is hostile. Geopolitical tension, risk-off positioning, and the worst 60-40 performance since 2022 are all real headwinds that no altcoin can outrun. But blaming the macro for the altcoin collapse is incomplete — and that incompleteness matters, because it leads investors toward the wrong diagnosis and therefore the wrong response.

The structural problem is this: there are now more than 47 million cryptocurrencies in existence. Twenty-two million on Solana alone. Over eighteen million on Base. Four million on BNB Smart Chain. The total pool of capital available to the crypto market has not grown anywhere near proportionally to the number of assets competing for it.

The result is liquidity dilution on a scale that has no historical precedent in this market — a spreading of finite capital across an effectively infinite number of tokens, each one drawing from the same shallow pool.

That is why altcoins are not just down. They are structurally fragile in a way they were not in previous cycles.

Darkfost’s forward observation is precise and deliberately restrained: extreme underperformance at this scale does create opportunity — but only for those willing to do the work of separating the resilient from the irrelevant. In a market of 47 million tokens, that distinction has never mattered more.

The Altcoin Market Has Given Back Everything. The Chart Makes That Impossible to Argue With

The total crypto market cap excluding the top 10 — the purest available measure of altcoin market health — currently stands at $173.12 billion, up 1.88% on the week. The weekly candle opened at $172.08 billion, reached $175.45 billion, and is holding modest gains. In the context of what the chart shows behind it, a 1.88% weekly gain is not a recovery. It is noise.

The macro picture is devastating. This index peaked near $480 billion in late 2024, marking the high point of the cycle that was supposed to deliver altseason. It has since collapsed 64% — erasing not just the 2024 gains but returning to levels last seen in mid-2023, before the bull market began in earnest. The entire altcoin bull run has been unwound.

The weekly moving average structure confirms the severity. Price has broken below all three MAs — the 50-week, 100-week, and 200-week — with all three now sloping downward in sequence. The 50-week MA crossed below the 100-week MA in a confirmed death cross. The 200-week MA near $190 billion, which provided definitive support at every major correction throughout the 2023-2024 cycle, has now been broken and is being tested from below.

$173 billion is not a floor. It is the level the market is currently defending after failing to hold $190 billion. The 2022 bear market low for this index sat near $80 billion. That reference is not a prediction. It is what the chart reveals when the current support gives way.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Ether Takes The Hardest Hit

Ether led all assets in outflows, shedding $222 million in a single week. That brought its year-to-date total into the red, with a net loss of $273 million — the worst performance among tracked assets.

Spot Ether ETFs also recorded $206 million in outflows for a second straight week, a sign that institutional demand for the second-largest cryptocurrency has been cooling steadily.

Bitcoin fared better in the long run. Despite $194 million leaving Bitcoin funds last week, the asset remains up $964 million in net inflows for the year.

A small group of investors even moved in the opposite direction — short-Bitcoin products drew $4 million in fresh capital, suggesting some are betting on more losses ahead.

Across the board, total assets under management in digital asset products dropped to close to $130 billion.

According to CoinShares head of research James Butterfill, that figure puts the market back at levels not seen since early February — broadly in line with where things stood in April 2025 during the first wave of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Solana lost a little over $12 million over the same period. XRP was the exception. Reports from CoinShares show the token attracted close to $16 million in new capital, standing apart from the widespread exodus hitting nearly every other major asset.

What Spooked Investors

Three things rattled markets last week: inflation fears, shifting expectations around US interest rates, and rising tensions in the Middle East.

The most consequential of the three may be the rate outlook. Expectations heading into the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting moved away from potential cuts and toward possible hikes — a major shift that historically pushes investors away from riskier assets.

Digital assets tend to feel that pressure quickly. When borrowing costs look like they’re going up, money moves toward safer ground.

The $414 million in total outflows snapped what had been five consecutive weeks of inflows. Data from CoinShares shows the pullback reflected a broader shift toward risk-off behavior among investors, driven more by macroeconomic forces than anything specific to crypto markets.

Whether last week marks a turning point or a brief pause will likely depend on what signals come out of the Fed in the weeks ahead. For now, the money has moved — at least temporarily — to the sidelines.

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

The core of Hoskinson’s complaint was not aimed at XRP holders, but at what he described as Ripple’s policy posture in Washington and the behavior of CEO Brad Garlinghouse. In Hoskinson’s telling, Ripple is pushing for rules that would classify new tokens as securities by default while benefiting from carve-outs that would leave larger, established players in a stronger position.

Hoskinson Takes Aim At Ripple Over Competition Fight

Hoskinson said Garlinghouse was “trying to pass a bill that makes everything by default a security until proven otherwise,” calling that framework a non-starter for the broader market. He argued that such an approach would effectively recreate the kind of regulatory pressure that former SEC Chair Gary Gensler brought to the sector, only this time through legislation supported by industry actors rather than enforcement alone.

“He’s trying to pass a bill that makes everything by default a security until proven otherwise, which was the treatment Gary Gensler inflicted on his own ecosystem,” Hoskinson said. “It’s a non-starter, because he knows that he’s going to get an exemption and it reduces competition. So, [expletive] the whole industry. It’s bad behavior.”

That argument sat at the center of a wider rant about market structure, lobbying, and what Hoskinson sees as crypto’s growing willingness to trade open competition for regulatory protection. He said he had already laid out “four different attack vectors” the SEC could use if such a bill were enacted, and warned that the damage would not stop with token issuers.

According to Hoskinson, the proposal would also leave open-source developers exposed by stripping out protections for DeFi builders. “The bill also removed all developer protections for DeFi developers,” he said. “Who takes care of the Tornado Cash people and these other people writing open-source software? We can’t live in a space where you have transitive unlimited liability.”

He extended that point with one of the livestream’s longer analogies, arguing that holding software developers liable for downstream use of their code would amount to a category error. “You write code and people you’ve never met use that code in places you’ve never been to and you’re held absolutely liable for that,” Hoskinson said. “That’s equivalent to you writing a book, someone reads the book and murders somebody based on a character in your book and then you get charged with murder. It’s basically the same thing.”

Hoskinson also took aim at what he described as the XRP community’s reflexive defense of Ripple whenever he criticizes the company. He said there is “no path for people to listen to the content” of his argument because any criticism of Garlinghouse is treated as an attack on XRP itself. He pushed back on that framing by noting that he publicly supported Ripple when the SEC sued the company years ago, but said that did not obligate him to back its current lobbying goals.

“Guys, I did support you when you got sued by the Securities Exchange Commission,” he said. “There’s videos of me. You can pull them up from years ago where I said it was the wrong decision.”

From there, Hoskinson shifted into one of crypto’s oldest fault lines: token distribution. He argued that Ripple had no need for outside help in its legal fight because the organization “gave themselves a mammoth premine,” saying the company already had the resources to defend itself and pursue acquisitions. He contrasted that with Cardano, saying, “I didn’t give myself 70% of the ADA supply.”

At press time, XRP traded at $1.35.

Why The Bitcoin Bottom Could Be Closer Than Expected

Crypto market analyst identified as Investor Jordan on X has presented a new Bitcoin price analysis, forecasting where the leading cryptocurrency could finally reach a bottom in this cycle. Over the past few months, BTC has experienced significant volatility and negative sentiment amid the ongoing bear market. 

In the past few weeks, Bitcoin has crashed toward $60,000, climbed back above $70,000, and then slipped again to $67,000 at the time of writing. Throughout this price fluctuation, market analysts have continued to predict a potential price bottom, with some suggesting BTC has already hit its lowest point this cycle. In contrast, others believe further declines could be ahead. 

Investor Jordan, however, offers his unique view. In his BTC price analysis, he stated that it is hard to imagine that the market bottom is not already in or at least very close. He says this because of a historical Relative Strength Index (RSI) signal that has consistently marked a price floor for Bitcoin over the past 11 years. 

Investor Jordan noted that in previous cycles, whenever the Bitcoin RSI dropped below 30 and entered oversold territory, it closely aligned with BTC’s cost of production. The cost of production here refers to the total expense required to mine Bitcoin. He noted that for 11 years, this area has been the bottom before BTC began a move to new highs. 

The analyst’s chart shows that Bitcoin’s RSI is about to break below 30 again and enter oversold territory. If history repeats itself, this could signal that Bitcoin has reached its final bottom. While he emphasizes the strong likelihood of this outcome, Investor Jordan also cautioned that it may take several weeks or even months for the bottom to play out fully.  

Analyst Predicts BTC Bottom By Summer End

In a separate analysis, market expert Titan of Crypto predicted that Bitcoin could reach a price bottom by the end of summer, likely in late August. He noted that BTC has historically found a price floor three to four months after forming an Ichimoku Death Cross.

According to Titan of Crypto, if this Death Cross pattern repeats, Bitcoin could form its highly anticipated price floor before any potential recovery to the upside.

These digital traders look for news of global unrest and respond in milliseconds, often moving the price of a contract before the rest of us can even think about the headline.

This new world of professionalized, machine-based speculation has turned what was once a niche hobby for crypto enthusiasts into a high-stakes financial arena.

Blockchain analytics company TRM Labs reported that prediction markets have seen substantial growth, fueled by greater accessibility, regulatory progress, and integration with mainstream platforms like Google Finance.

The firm noted that these markets are increasingly serving as real-time indicators for geopolitical and macroeconomic events, gaining attention from major media outlets.

War And Elections Drive Unprecedented Volume

The primary catalyst for this massive activity is no longer the price of digital coins. Instead, traders are putting money on the line over the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and other international flashpoints.

The political implications are also significant, with huge monetary stakes riding on the 2028 US Presidential primary nominations. It has been suggested that such platforms are now being used as a measure of the way in which public opinion is shifting, with their probabilities featured on Google Finance and in the news as a more fluid alternative to traditional political polling.

The extent to which this industry is growing can be quantified by recent figures, which showed an increase of over 2,800% compared to the previous year. Indeed, in March 2026, there were over 191 million transactions in the space.

To put that in perspective, that figure equates to almost $24 billion in total value for that month alone, representing a staggering increase from the $1.85 billion in March 2025. This indicates that people and investors are viewing these markets as crucial in hedging against any changes in economic policies or shifts in interest rates.

Prediction Markets: Lawmakers Target Event Based Betting

However, the sudden increase in value has caught the attention of regulators in Washington. The regulators have expressed concerns that people may be using inside information to make profits from military actions and other government decisions.

These suspicions of insider trading have led to a bipartisan push for new legislation. US President Donald Trump and members of Congress are looking at a bill that would effectively ban contracts tied to “casino-style” events, potentially stripping the industry of its most popular categories.

In an effort to stave off a total shutdown, major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are beginning to implement their own internal restrictions. These measures aim to curb the most controversial types of betting while maintaining the market’s role as a forecasting utility.

Data shows that the outcome of these regulatory battles will determine if the sector stays a permanent fixture of the financial world. For now, the industry remains in a volatile state, balancing between its value as a source of truth and its reputation as a venue for speculating on global tragedy.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Treasury Holders Are Selling Off Solana

As Solana’s price continues its downward trend into the new week, selling pressure around the asset has increased along with the bearish performance. After a period of dumping from short-term and long-term holders, this selling activity appears to have moved toward the SOL treasury companies across the sector.

Looking at the chart shared by Ted Pillows, a seasoned macro analyst and investor, large Solana treasury companies have been dumping their SOL holdings over the past few months. Currently, these firms are selling significant portions of their holdings towards new lows.

Such a wave of distribution from treasury firms is expanding the available supply of SOL in the market, causing speculation about its price stability in the near term. Furthermore, this typically points to a shift in sentiment or the desire for these companies to reshuffle their crypto portfolios, a key development in the market.

According to the expert, no buying demand is coming for Solana, which is an extremely negative development, and could extend the ongoing bearish price action. Ted believes that the persistent selling from treasury firms might push SOL further downward to the $50 price level in 2026.

In terms of unchain activity, Solana is demonstrating weakening performance as the network sees a massive decline in stablecoin supply. AdrianoFeria.eth on the X platform stated that the SOL network is dying compared to Ethereum, which is thriving, amassing a substantial amount of stablecoin supply.

Over the past month, the SOL network has experienced notable outflows of more than $250 million. In the crypto sector, stablecoin supply is considered one of the few metrics that cannot be gamed or faked, making it a crucial indicator to determine network trajectory.

SOL’s Price Action Still Looking Weak

Solana has lost its upside momentum due to the market’s pullback during the weekend. Following an analysis of the weekly chart, UniChartz, a crypto analyst, has revealed that Solana is exhibiting some weakness and is positioned at a critical support area. 

This support, which is sitting at the near the $81 level, is now a key point in determining the altcoin’s next direction. If SOL makes a clean break down and acceptance below the level, it could trigger a continued downward trend. When this happens, the next big price level to watch out for is around $45.

At the time of writing, the price of SOL is trading at $83 after a brief bounce of 1.14% over the last 24 hours. While the price has slightly increased, its trading volume has picked up, rising by more than 36% over the past day.

The bill would create a voluntary certification program to encourage US-based development of crypto mining operations and related infrastructure, require certified sites to move away from mining equipment tied to foreign adversaries, and codify President Donald Trump’s executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

New Plan To Grow US Crypto Mining

Under the measure, the Department of Commerce would stand up a voluntary “Mined in America” certification for cryptocurrency mining facilities and mining pools. 

Facilities that seek the label would have to phase out mining hardware manufactured by companies linked to foreign adversaries, a provision aimed at reducing reliance on potentially insecure supply chains.

Rather than requesting new budgetary outlays, the bill would channel certified mining projects into existing federal energy and rural development programs to support the transition. 

It also directs federal technical agencies to assist US manufacturers: the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the Manufacturing Extension Partnership would be tasked with helping domestic firms design and produce mining hardware. 

The legislation is backed by the Satoshi Action Fund, which has advocated for policies to expand Bitcoin-related economic activity in the United States.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve On Statutory Footing

Another high-profile element of the bill would be formal recognition of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announced in the White House executive order last year. 

The Mined in America Act would codify that reserve by establishing it within the Department of the Treasury, giving the executive initiative a statutory anchor and signaling bipartisan interest in treating Bitcoin as a matter of public policy and national strategy.

Senator Lummis framed the new crypto bill as part of a broader push to make the United States a leading center for digital-asset activity. “President Trump pledged to make the United States the digital asset capital of the world— and we’re not backing down,” she said in a statement. Lummis added:  

The Mined in America Act brings this industry home through forward-thinking initiatives to secure our financial future. I’m proud to join Senator Cassidy to ensure the future of digital assets is built right here in America.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

According to crypto pundit X Finance Bull, a recent development involving global banking infrastructure shows the moment has finally come for XRP and the entire XRP Ledger ecosystem.

The Moment Has Finally Come

Crypto commentator X Finance Bull recently took to the social media platform X to highlight a growing overlap between major global banking institutions participating in SWIFT’s new blockchain initiative and their existing relationships with Ripple.

SWIFT recently announced plans to build a blockchain-based shared ledger capable of processing real-time, 24/7 cross-border payments. However, what caught the analyst’s attention was not just the technology into a 24/7 blockchain but the names behind it. The initiative reportedly involves over 30 banks across 16 countries working on the next phase of financial infrastructure.

A closer look at the participating institutions reveals that a significant portion already has ties to Ripple. Going through the list of institutions involved in SWIFT’s blockchain project, X Finance Bull identified 12 banks with confirmed ties to Ripple.

Banks such as Santander, DBS Bank, Standard Chartered, Mizuho Financial Group, MUFG, Bank of America, and Royal Bank of Canada are among those identified as having existing relationships with Ripple through payments, custody, or consortium participation.

As noted by X Finance Bull, each of these financial companies has already launched a few initiatives using Ripple’s existing blockchain technology. SG-FORGE has issued the EURCV stablecoin on the XRP Ledger, uses Ripple Custody, and has already tested tokenized bond settlement with SWIFT. Santander’s One Pay FX cross-border payment platform was built using Ripple technology. DBS Bank signed a memorandum of understanding with Ripple, focused on tokenized fund trading. 

Standard Chartered, Mizuho Financial Group, MUFG, Bank of America, Westpac, Royal Bank of Canada, BBVA, Akbank, and Absa Group round out the 12, each with documented links to Ripple’s ecosystem in varying capacities.

Regulatory And Infrastructure Timelines Converging

Although this is not a direct Ripple-SWIFT deal, the observation by the crypto commentator shows that XRP Ledger is already inside the majority of institutions involved in the architecture of the future of global finance. “12 of 30+ banks working on SWIFT’s ledger have Ripple on their other screen. That’s not a theory. That’s a pattern you can verify,” he said.

Finance Bull’s observation also adds to another context in which SWIFT’s blockchain build is occurring. The analyst points to two parallel regulatory developments that are moving on a similar timeline.

The first is the anticipated CLARITY Act, which is already advancing toward the President’s desk. Separately, a tokenization-related exemption from the US Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly weeks away.

The Numbers That Tell The Story

Bitcoin is heading into the final stretch of March with a possibility of three straight losing opening months to a year, a setup it has never previously recorded in its trading history. The Coinglass monthly returns heatmap lays out the situation with uncomfortable precision. January 2026 closed down 10.17%. February followed with a 14.94% loss, which also created a record of the first consecutive red February after a 17.39% loss in 2025.

March is now at risk of closing in negative territory, with Bitcoin trading around $67,750 at the time of writing against a month-open price of $66,970 following February’s close. That puts March’s month-to-date return at approximately 0.31%, with one trading day remaining before the monthly candle seals shut.

Bitcoin Monthly Returns (%). Source: Coinglass

Cross-referencing the full historical dataset, no year in Bitcoin’s trackable price history (2013 to 2026) produced three consecutive red monthly closes to open the year. There were years with brutal individual months: January 2015 lost 33.05%, January 2018 dropped 25.41%, and February 2014 fell 31.03%. However, in each case, at least one of the three opening months recovered to close green, but 2026 has produced none of that relief.

Possible Six Months Of Consecutive Losses

Bitcoin has been on a long stretch of monthly red closes since it reached its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000. This led to five consecutive red closes in February 2025, which was the second time in its history. That record is now at risk of extending to six monthly red closes depending on how March eventually plays out.

The conditions behind this performance are a convergence of pressures that mounted steadily over the past six months.  As it stands, investor sentiment on Bitcoin has corroded to multi-year lows, and it is now at its lowest levels since the 2022 bear market. 

As it stands, the entire Q1 2026 is at a red performance of -22.6%. The Q1 2026 performance is the weakest opening quarter since 2018, when Bitcoin lost 50.7% of its value between January and March. That year’s first-quarter damage was more severe in absolute terms, but February gained 0.47%.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,750 with one day left to write the final line of a chapter most investors did not expect to see written at the start of the year.

Waning Momentum Impacts Bitcoin Whales

While the crypto market is facing volatility, Bitcoin has pulled back to key support levels. BTC’s price action is still below the crucial $70,000 mark, and the behavior of large holders is starting to change as a result of the extended decline.

In reaction to the stopped momentum, whales, who are sometimes seen as the market’s most important participants, seem to be modifying their activity, either reducing accumulation or taking a more cautious approach. Market expert and investor Crypto Tice on X reported that these large investors are starting to bet against the flagship asset as bullish momentum fades. 

Given the market structure at this point, the expert stated that this is not something that market watchers or traders should overlook, as it carries significant implications. This change occurs as BTC’s failure to generate a notable rebound triggers concerns regarding its strength or stability in the short term. Furthermore, the interaction between subdued price action and whale behavior could play a crucial role in shaping the asset’s next move in the upcoming weeks.

Crypto Tice has underlined a divergence between whales and retail holders, who appear to be moving in a different direction. While large holders are betting against BTC and opening short positions, retail investors are steadily chasing the long side.

Many may consider this divergence as bearish noise, but the expert claims that this is a signal that needs to be monitored. This is because whales do not build short positions for fun. Rather, they do so because they see something that retail investors fail to see. 

As seen in the chart, the same whales that accumulated at the bottom are leaning toward the short side. Even those who sold at the top and those who have been right every single market cycle are shifting to the short side. In the meantime, Crypto Tice believes that following the smart money, not the crowd, could be a good move.

BTC Is Entering Crypto Exchanges

Bitcoin’s bearish performance has currently triggered a new wave of selling activity on cryptocurrency exchanges. By analyzing the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchange Sum on the 24-hour time frame, Crypto Tice shared that over 21,700 BTC was moved into trading platforms within the period.

According to the expert, every single coin was sold at a loss. Even though not all transfers result in quick sell-offs, the magnitude of this movement may cause traders to reevaluate short-term market sentiment

Crypto Tice highlighted that this kind of distribution activity aligns with raw capitulation and panic selling at its most painful level as weak hands break in real time. The data clearly shows that every time this volume of loss selling hit exchanges, a bottom was forming underneath the surface, suggesting that BTC’s price may be approaching its next market bottom.

Dogecoin Price Briefly Rises On SpaceX IPO Speculations

The Dogecoin price notably rose close to the psychological $0.10 level following reports that Elon Musk’s SpaceX could file for an IPO soon. According to a Reuters report, the space company is reportedly looking to raise up to $80 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation. This could make the IPO the largest ever, topping Saudi Aramco’s 2019 IPO. 

The Dogecoin price reacts to developments surrounding a potential SpaceX IPO, given Elon Musk’s relationship with DOGE. As such, the meme coin has been known to react to developments around the world’s richest man. It is also worth noting that DOGE has a direct connection to SpaceX through the long-planned DOGE-1 lunar mission, which aims to send a physical Dogecoin to the moon. 

Elon Musk recently revived talks about the mission, stating that it could maybe happen next year. As such, the SpaceX IPO represents a huge positive for the Dogecoin price. DOGE also has a connection with SpaceX through the X social media platform, which is now part of SpaceX following its acquisition of xAI. 

X is planning to roll out its payment services, with speculations that the social media platform could integrate DOGE payments. The Dogecoin price rose when Musk announced that X Money will launch to the public next month. A potential integration could serve as the catalyst to send the Doge price higher. 

DOGE Has One Of The Best Setups Right Now

Ahead of the SpaceX IPO, crypto analyst Javon Marks said in an X post that the Dogecoin price has one of the best setups in the market right now. His accompanying chart showed that DOGE could soon bottom and rally to as high as $7 in the next bull run, marking a new all-time high (ATH) for the meme coin, surpassing its current ATH of $0.73.

This Dogecoin price rally to $7 is expected to happen between 2027 and 2028, which could mark the start of the next bull run. Marks made this prediction based on DOGE’s historical performance in past bull runs. The foremost meme coin notably saw gains of over 8,000% and 30,000% in the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, respectively. 

At the time of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at around $0.09270, up almost 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Limited XRP Positions Suggest Wall Street’s Caution, Not Full Commitment

Recent figures, as posted by @pumpius on X, indicate that several high-profile financial firms have established exposure to XRP, primarily through spot exchange-traded funds. Goldman Sachs is reported to hold the largest position, with approximately $153.8 million in XRP ETFs, equivalent to about 83.6 million shares. Millennium Management has taken a more modest allocation of around $23 million, while Logan Stone Capital holds roughly $5.3 million. Citadel is also noted as participating, though the exact size of its position is not publicly detailed.

These figures are cited as proof of Wall Street quietly accumulating XRP. However, it is important to note that these investments are held through regulated ETFs rather than direct ownership of XRP itself. This approach allows institutions to gain exposure while operating within compliance frameworks, limiting risk while still participating in the market.

The nature of these positions indicates measured involvement. Institutions appear to be testing the waters, establishing exposure without committing fully to the underlying asset. The reported allocations suggest interest exists, but they do not yet point to aggressive, large-scale buying. Wall Street seems to be positioning itself strategically, keeping options open while waiting for conditions that would justify a deeper commitment.

Regulatory Certainty Remains The Key Trigger

The pace at which institutions could fully adopt XRP appears closely tied to regulatory certainty. According to a video posted on X by @SMQKEDQG, to start using XRP, banks need to complete compliance checks, review credit requirements, and integrate the system into their existing operations. Normally, this process takes two to three months. Just the technical setup, including system testing, workflow adjustments, and making sure everything runs smoothly, can take one to two months and in the fastest cases, up to 3 weeks. Because it takes careful coordination, clear rules from regulators are the main signal that would encourage large-scale adoption.

However, the presence of existing positions through ETFs allows institutions to stay ready, but deeper adoption depends on a legal framework that clarifies how XRP can be used safely within the financial system. Until that clarity arrives, Wall Street is likely to maintain a cautious stance rather than pursue rapid accumulation.

In short, the evidence points to measured positioning rather than a buying frenzy. Institutions are participating, but they appear to be waiting for the conditions—particularly the CLARITY Act—that would allow them to move decisively. Wall Street is involved, but not fully committed, suggesting a strategy that balances readiness with risk management.

Why Saylor Keeps Buying The Bitcoin Top

LeClair said the criticism misunderstands the mechanics behind Strategy’s buying. “The Bitcoin treasury model is very pro-cyclical,” he said. “So when times are good, generally over a four-year market or minute to minute, it’s easiest to raise capital. And so the capital markets are wide open when Bitcoin’s strong for common equity. But when it’s weak, they’re not.”

That dynamic, he said, helps explain why Strategy’s purchases often arrive when Bitcoin is already trading strongly. If the company’s stock is performing well and its enterprise value is rich relative to its Bitcoin holdings, it becomes easier and more attractive to issue equity and convert that capital into more BTC. “When we sell stock, we buy literally minute to minute,” LeClair said, referring to Saylor’s own description of the process. “So when a weekly purchase comes out, people are like, well, Strategy bought the range high again. Well, it’s like, no, the causality is reversed.”

In LeClair’s telling, Strategy is not buying strength because it wants to pay up. It is buying when its financing window is strongest. That distinction matters, especially for listed Bitcoin treasury companies whose capital-raising ability is tightly linked to sentiment, equity multiples, and market liquidity.

He said that model is now evolving. Where Strategy once relied primarily on common stock issuance and, at times, convertible bonds, LeClair pointed to the growing importance of preferred equity offerings, especially STRC, as a potential shift in how Bitcoin-linked firms fund purchases across different market regimes. The attraction is that preferreds may allow companies to keep raising capital even when Bitcoin is weak and common equity is less appealing to issue.

“The thing with STRC that’s really, really interesting is that they now have a mechanism to basically raise regardless of the market conditions,” he said. “So Bitcoin can be strong, Bitcoin can be weak. If STRC is at 100, they can raise a lot, a lot of money.” He added that Strategy had already used that structure aggressively, saying Saylor raised $1.2 billion in a week without selling MSTR.

LeClair framed that as more than a financing tweak. He described it as a new bridge between BTC exposure and pools of capital that cannot buy spot BTC or even ETFs directly. “There’s trillions of dollars of fixed income in the world that want low volatility, high yield,” he said. “And so Saylor says, okay, well, I’ll design, I’ll engineer security for you.”

That broader capital-markets angle ran through much of LeClair’s interview. While he said Metaplanet’s core BTC thesis has not changed despite the market drawdown, he acknowledged that execution has. In strong markets, treasury firms can lean on common equity fundraising. In weaker conditions, other instruments may matter more. “The ways that we navigate the capital markets have been tweaked a bit,” he said.

LeClair also suggested Strategy is becoming the marginal buyer of Bitcoin, arguing that Saylor is now purchasing more than the ETFs combined. At the same time, he said the company is improving its capital structure by issuing new securities while making its existing convertible debt less significant relative to the rest of the balance sheet. In his view, that combination is creating an increasingly powerful acquisition engine for BTC.

At press time, BTC traded at $67,639.

Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Hyperliquid: The Everything Exchange

As if its growing ascend to the crypto stardom wasn’t enough for Hyperliquid, with recent milestones such as launching the PURR common stock on the Nasdaq Options Market, or rolling out a fiat on-ramp, the leading perp DEX is now on Ivy League levels. Professor Shikhar Ghosh, lecturer Mahesh Ramakrishnan and researcher Shweta Bagai taught a study case on Hyperliquid to MBA students and regulators, as Ramakrishnan said himself on a post on the social network X. As part of the lecture, Ramakrishnan interviewed Jeff Yan.

Posting my recent Harvard Business School case on @HyperliquidX, which we taught to MBA students and regulators earlier this week.

Grateful to @chameleon_jeff and @iliensinc for their help, and for letting me interview Jeff for the class!

You can read the full case below: pic.twitter.com/d2SIKXQ9yf

— MoneroMahesh (@MoneroMahesh) March 26, 2026

The case study, titled “Hyperliquid: The Everything Exchange”, consists in a structured deep dive into Hyperliquid’s architecture, business model, governance, and risk controls. Its aim is to help students and regulators think through where to draw the line between innovation and systemic risk.

Related Reading: Cardano Founder Hoskinson Just Released A Free Book On Zero-Knowledge

As it delves into the history and technical foundation of the platform, the study poses three key questions: Who ultimately controls upgrades and emergency powers on the chain? How transparent are order‑book operations and liquidation mechanics for outside observers? And what happens to users if the “core” team disappears, or if a catastrophic failure hits liquidity?

The case pushes students to compare Hyperliquid’s design choices with centralized exchanges like FTX and with more “credibly neutral” DeFi protocols, explicitly framing it as a test of whether “CeFi in DeFi clothing” is acceptable.

Some independent researchers have argued that Hyperliquid’s stack concentrates significant power in a “core writer” layer that can influence balances, transactions, and even reported volume, blurring the line between on‑chain and off‑chain control. The Harvard study effectively forces students to decide whether such administrative levers are a necessary safety valve or an unacceptable hidden risk, especially after FTX‑Alameda’s use of opaque arrangements and volume games.

Hyperliquid’s liquidation machinery has already drawn scrutiny from on‑chain sleuths and high‑frequency traders. Critics have argued the system can trigger forced unwinds aggressively in fast markets, concentrating risk in the insurance/backstop layer rather than distributing it transparently across participants.

The Harvard case leans into this tension: it explicitly asks whether Hyperliquid’s backstop and insurance mechanisms are robust enough to survive a multi‑sigma meltdown without socialized losses or “special treatment” for favored accounts.

Top business schools and regulators now treat “DeFi” derivatives venues as potential systemically relevant infrastructure, not fringe experiments, which could shape future policy and enforcement priorities. The message to traders is simple: liquidation and backstop design are not academic footnotes: they’re model‑risk levers that decide who eats the loss when volatility hits.

Cover image from Perplexity, HYPEUSDT chart from Tradingview

Cardano Founder Drops Free 337-Page ZK Book

In a March 27 livestream, Hoskinson said the project grew out of what he described as a “shockingly low level of understanding” around zero-knowledge proofs and ZK cryptography. “So I wrote a 337 page book over the last few months,” he said. He described it as a non-technical manual, though one that still contains a significant amount of technical material, built around a seven-layer framework for understanding how ZK systems are designed from setup and languages down to proof systems, cryptography, and the verification environment.

I wrote a book https://t.co/FrzBeFEQbS

— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) March 27, 2026

That structure is central to the pitch. The Cardano founder said the framework is meant to help readers “understand all ZK systems from that lens,” then move upward into adjacent privacy-enhancing technologies and, eventually, Midnight itself. The repository’s README makes the same case in more formal language, describing the book as a guide to “the entire zero-knowledge stack from the ground up” and arguing that ZK systems do not remove trust so much as decompose it into smaller, testable pieces.

The Midnight angle is not incidental. Hoskinson explicitly presented the book as “a good way of introducing Midnight to people,” and said one chapter is dedicated to the network, even if the broader work is designed as a general introduction to zero-knowledge.

He also said the book goes beyond the seven-layer model into private smart contracts, the Aleo-linked ZEXE model, Midnight’s Kachina system, zkVMs, STARK-to-SNARK pipelines, and the wider market landscape for privacy and proof systems.

That scope has already expanded since the version Hoskinson described on video. The GitHub release notes for v1.10, published on March 30, show the book was renamed from The Seven-Layer Magic Trick to Proving Nothing, and now ships in both EPUB and PDF formats. The file inventory in that release lists a 357-page dark-mode PDF, while the chapter notes show edits and additions across 14 chapters, including sections on zkVMs, market structure, eIDAS 2.0, rollups, and a more detailed Midnight case study.

new release for my book: Version 1.1 of Proving Nothing is out https://t.co/KAbk2jyHza

— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) March 30, 2026

Hoskinson also made clear that this is not a static publication. “This is the first edition, version 1.01,” he said in the livestream. “I’ll keep adding and changing and work on it throughout the weekends as more things come up and as more stuff in Midnight gets launched, I’ll add to this.” That matters because the book appears designed less as a one-off manifesto than as a living educational document tied to Midnight’s rollout and the broader commercialization of privacy tech.

At press time, Cardano traded at $0.2468.

Bitcoin Macro Structure Is Still Bullish

Presently, the Bitcoin price is still holding well above the 200-Week Moving Average, which is very bullish for the price, according to crypto analyst Crypto Patel. The reason for this dates back to the past market cycles, where the 200-Week Moving Average has been the major level to hold or beat.

Digging into the past cycles, Crypto Patel explained that the Bitcoin price had been able to stay above the 200-Week Moving Average back in 2015. The result of this was a major rally that saw the Bitcoin price rally toward $20,000 in the bull market that followed.

Then again, in 2019, the same 200-Week Moving Average held firm, and the resulting bull market led to the 2021 peak of $69,000. Even the third time in 2023, despite the price preciously crashing below $20,000, Bitcoin had managed to hold above the 200-Week Moving Average, and bulls were rewarded as the price would reach $126,000 in 2025.

Given this trend, it becomes obvious that the Bitcoin price being above the 200-Week MA is bullish, and likewise, a crash below it would be bearish. This is why it is important for the bulls to maintain a hold on this level.

BTC Price Must Not Fall Below $59,000

Going by the analyst’s post, the current 200-Week Moving Average for Bitcoin lies at $59,000. This immediately makes it the level to defend for the bulls. As Crypto Patel explains, as long as the Bitcoin price stays above this level, then ‘every dip is a gift.’ This means it could be an opportunity to buy.

If historical trends are to be respected, holding the 200W MA would mean that the Bitcoin price would see new all-time highs sometime in 2028. “The Macro Structure Is Still Bullish. Don’t Let Short-Term Fear Shake You Out,” the analyst warns.

Alternatively, a break below this 200-Week Moving Average could be disastrous for Bitcoin, because it would mean that the cryptocurrency has now officially entered bear market territory. It could also bring the harbinger of more decline, sending the cryptocurrency lower before establishing a bottom.

Bitcoin ETFs See Red Again, While Potential New Member Awaits 

According to data from SoSoValue, the combined trading activity across the 12 Bitcoin Spot ETFs resulted in a negative inflow of $296.18 million over the past week. This development represents the seventh weekly outflow of 2026, and the fifteenth since the crypto bear market commenced in October 2025. A daily analysis shows the net withdrawal performance is highly linked to consecutive outflows on Thursday and Friday, combinedly valued at over $396 million. For context, the $225.48 million outflow registered on Friday represents the market’s largest net outflow since March 3rd. 

Looking at individual fund performance, BlackRock IBIT experienced the largest net redemptions valued at $158.07 million. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC, Bitwise’s BITB, and Ark/21 Shares ARKB  also registered a total netflow of $169.26 million. ETFs such as Grayscale’s BTC and VanEck’s HODL also posted respective net withdrawals of $5.45 and $10.28, marking minor contributions to the general market’s negative performance.  On the other hand, Fidelity’s FBTC accounted for the only recorded net inflow, valued at $46.88 million. 

Other ETFs, such as Invesco’s BTCO, Valkyrie’s BRRR, Wisdom Tree’s BTCW, Franklin Templeton’s EZBC, and Hashdex’s DEFI, all experienced zero weekly net flows. At press time, the Bitcoin Spot ETF reported a cumulative total net inflow of $55.93 billion and total net assets of $84.77 billion. 

Meanwhile, recent reports indicate that American banking giant Morgan Stanley has filed to launch its own Bitcoin spot ETF under the ticker MSBT. According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, the proposed fund will offer the lowest fee in the market at 0.14%, just below Grayscale’s 0.15%. If approved by the SEC, MSBT will be the first Bitcoin spot ETF directly listed by a US bank. For context, Morgan Stanley ranks as a leading financial services operator in the world with an asset under management of $1.9 trillion and a market cap of $251 billion.

Related Reading: Greatest Wealth Transfer Is about To Happen For Altcoins, Analyst Warns

Ethereum Spot ETFs Record Consecutive Outflows 

In separate news, the Ethereum ETFs extended their negative performance for a second consecutive week after registering weekly net withdrawals of $206.58 million. At the time of writing, the cumulative total net inflow for the Ethereum spot market is $11.52 billion, while total net assets are valued at $11.33 billion.

XRP Utility Is Ripple’s ‘North Star’

Garlinghouse made it clear that XRP is the guiding principle behind its strategic moves. According to the Ripple CEO, improving the real-world use cases of XRP, trust, and utility are now the main factors as to how the company approaches product development and expansion. “That is our North Star of how we think about it all,” he said.

This utility outlook of XRP has been central to Ripple’s acquisitions, which, according to Garlinghouse, are all already exceeding expectations. Garlinghouse mentioned that both of Ripple’s major acquisitions from last year have surpassed the company’s internal projections. Ripple Treasury, formerly known as GTreasury, and Ripple Prime have each outperformed expectations, with the most notable example being Ripple Prime tripling its revenue since the acquisition.

Stablecoins And Regulation Could Decide Industry’s Next Phase

Garlinghouse pointed to Ripple Treasury as a concrete illustration of the market opportunity ahead. The platform, in its prior form as GTreasury, orchestrated $13 trillion in payments last year. However, 0% of these payments were conducted in crypto or stablecoins. That gap is one of the biggest opportunities in how the crypto industry moves forward. 

“That’s the opportunity,” Garlinghouse said.

Interestingly, he also elaborated on a future of how Ripple captures that opening by incorporating crypto payment rails directly into the dashboards corporate treasurers already use. He described a future where corporate treasurers and CFOs can choose between traditional payment rails that take days and cost more, or blockchain-based options that settle in minutes. That choice could be the important factor that brings crypto deeper into global finance.

Another important part of the discussion focused on crypto regulations in the United States, particularly the proposed CLARITY Act. Garlinghouse had previously expressed support for the CLARITY Act. He had even previously predicted that the legislature will be passed by US regulators by the end of April. 

However, the Ripple CEO is now pushing the projected timeline further. He revised his timeline by 30 days and is now expecting progress closer to the end of May but maintained that negotiations are ongoing and that all stakeholders are still engaged. All that needs to happen now is a compromise on this important issue around how rewards are managed.

According to Garlinghouse, passing clear regulatory guidelines for the crypto industry is important for keeping innovation and capital within the United States and for the US to be competitive on a global scale. Without clear regulatory guidelines, there is a risk that entrepreneurs and investments will continue moving offshore. 

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Adjusted Realized Price Poses Resistance To Recovery Attempts 

In an X post on March 28, On-chain analyst Darkfost highlighted the underlying dynamics behind Bitcoin’s recent troubles. This analysis is based on readings from the BTC Realized Price Excluding >7Y Supply, a metric that reflects the cost basis of circulating supply,  but with the exclusion of those aged seven years or older, aimed at filtering out diamond hands (that is, both lost and unmoving BTC).

&

BTC is still unable to move back above the realized price that excludes inactive supply.

This chart presents a cost basis that excludes supply aged more than 7 years in order to better reflect the supply that is actually circulating.⁰— This approach filters out both lost… pic.twitter.com/RZ6vH1oSLA

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) March 28, 2026

Presently, this adjusted realized price sits at around $72,500, a level above which Bitcoin has struggled to see sustained price action for the past two months. Citing previous historical cycles, Darkfost asserts that similar conditions have often coincided with extended bearish phases.

According to the market quant, Bitcoin has previously spent between six and 10 months below this investor cost basis during extended bear markets without a decisive reclaim. This indicates that a repeat of historical patterns could cause the Bitcoin market to experience additional months of negative price growth, despite the bear market that has already lasted six months.

BTC Market Overview

As of press time, Bitcoin trades for $66,629, reflecting a gain of almost 1% in the past day. Interestingly, CoinMarketCap data show that the BTC market has barely moved over the past month, with a 1.27% downside deviation. According to renowned market analyst Ali Martinez, the premier cryptocurrency has gained more attention from traders in the last month, likely driven by observed high price volatility.

Based on data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin Open Interest, i.e., outstanding trade contracts, reached around $30 billion in mid-March, marking the highest level seen in 2026. Notably, most of these transactions are occurring on the Binance exchange, where traders have recently initiated an additional $829 million in Open Interest.

Following the Bitcoin price struggles since October 2025, the market requires a bullish flip in defining factors such as macroeconomics, liquidity availability, and demand presence to initiate a recovery. However, until the market conditions become more indicative of an optimistic future, the Bitcoin market might indeed be in for a rough period in the months to come.

The bill, called the Strong and Free Elections Act, targets payment methods that officials say are difficult to trace and could be used by foreign actors to funnel money into Canadian politics without detection.

Steven MacKinnon, the government’s House leader, said the measures are designed to keep elections “free, fair and secure.”

The penalties under the proposed law are significant. Anyone caught violating the rules could be forced to return or destroy the funds — or hand them over to the chief electoral officer.

On top of that, individuals could face fines of up to $25,000, while corporations could be hit with penalties as high as $100,000. In both cases, violators would also owe up to twice the original amount contributed.

Today, we are taking concrete steps to better protect our democracy.

With the introduction of the Strong and Free Elections Act, new investments to counter foreign threats, and stronger government coordination we are acting to ensure our elections remain free, fair, and…

— Steven MacKinnon (@stevenmackinnon) March 26, 2026

Not Canada’s First Try

This isn’t the first time Ottawa has pushed for this kind of ban. A nearly identical bill was introduced in 2024, but it stalled after its second reading in the House of Commons and never made it to a vote. That earlier attempt was led by Dominic LeBlanc, who was then serving as minister of public safety.

The current bill follows a recommendation made by Canada’s chief electoral officer, Stéphane Perrault, in a 2024 report. Perrault argued that crypto donations present a unique problem because identifying who actually made the contribution is far harder than with conventional payment methods.

Crypto has been an accepted form of political donation in Canada since 2019, treated much the same way as property donations under existing rules.

To become law, the bill must clear multiple readings in the House of Commons, pass through committee, move through the Senate, and receive royal assent from the Governor General.

Deepfakes Also In The Crosshairs

Beyond the donation rules, the bill takes aim at AI-generated content. It would expand existing restrictions on realistic deepfakes that impersonate election candidates in ways meant to mislead voters.

The issue drew widespread attention during the lead-up to the 2024 US elections, when a fabricated audio clip depicted US President Joe Biden telling voters to stay home on election day.

Canada is not acting alone on crypto donations. Reports indicate the UK announced similar plans the same day, following an independent review and pressure from senior members of parliament.

The parallel moves suggest growing concern among Western democracies about the role anonymous digital payments could play in influencing elections.

Whether Canada’s bill succeeds where the 2024 version failed will depend on how quickly it moves through parliament — and whether it has enough support to survive the process this time.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bhutan Moves $120 Million Of Bitcoin In 2026

On Saturday, March 27th, Arkham Intelligence revealed that the Bhutanese government sent $8.5 million worth of Bitcoin out of its main holding addresses. “This transfer went almost entirely to a fresh address with a separate address type from Bhutan’s holding addresses,” the on-chain analytics firm wrote on X.

Bhutan, a nation famous for its government-backed mining operations, has been trimming its Bitcoin stash, which was built over the past few years. As Arkham revealed in its report, the South-Asian country has embarked on episodic selling of its Bitcoin (in batches of $5 to $10 million) since September 2025.

The crypto intelligence platform highlighted that Bhutan has transferred around $159 million out of its holding addresses since the turn of the year, with more than $39 million flowing back in the opposite direction. This movement amounts to a net outflow of $120 million worth of Bitcoin to open-market participants or platforms, including exchanges and trading firms like QCP Capital.

Arkham wrote on the X platform:

Bhutan sells portions of its Bitcoin in clips of ~$5-10M, and sold ~3500 BTC mid-late September 2025. Bhutan’s outbound transfer volume has also started to increase in recent weeks, with the state appearing to reduce its holdings by about 1700 BTC since the start of the year.

With the price of BTC struggling so far this year, it is no surprise that the country might be looking to reduce its exposure to the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. At the same time, the continuous outflow of Bitcoin from the government’s holding addresses has sparked the question of whether Bhutan is exiting the Bitcoin mining scene.

This question has received much credence due to the fact that the identified Bhutan holding addresses have not seen an above-$100,000 inflow in more than a year, despite the constant withdrawals. While the on-chain trend suggests a halt in the kingdom’s mining operations, there is no way to confirm, especially considering the possibility of moving their mining proceeds to fresh, unmarked wallet addresses.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $66,770, reflecting an over 1% jump in the past 24 hours.

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Bitcoin Robbery Mastermind Still At Large

That detail emerged during a March 17 court hearing in Maricopa County, where prosecutors revealed that an unidentified third party was on a phone call with two California teenagers throughout a violent home invasion in Scottsdale, Arizona, directing their every move in real time.

The teenagers – Jackson Sullivan, 17, and Skylar LaPaille, 16 – told investigators that “Red” and another individual known as “8” had been communicating with them through the encrypted app Signal — and had handed them $1,000 to buy supplies before the job.

The target was a couple believed to hold $66 million in bitcoin.

According to court records, Sullivan and LaPaille drove roughly 600 miles from San Luis Obispo, California, arriving at a home near 98th Street on Windrose Drive on the morning of January 30.

Teenage Scottsdale home burglars tried to steal $66 million in crypto, police say https://t.co/vqPtYJEORl pic.twitter.com/gprkdHnjvs

— azfamily 3TV CBS 5 (@azfamily) March 27, 2026

Tied And Beaten

They came dressed in delivery driver uniforms purchased online. They brought a fake package and a dolly. When the homeowner answered the door, the teens forced their way inside.

What followed was brutal. The couple was restrained with duct tape and beaten repeatedly while the intruders demanded access to their cryptocurrency wallets.

The homeowner later addressed the court directly. “I have had a concussion. I’ve had a broken rib,” he said. “They used subterfuge to enter our house, and then he personally beat me repeatedly in my own home.”

The couple’s adult son was also in the house. He hid and called 911.

Police reached the home before the teens had left. Sullivan and LaPaille fled, driving a vehicle with stolen plates, at one point going the wrong direction into oncoming traffic during the chase.

They were arrested just after 11:30 a.m. on January 31. Left behind at the scene: duct tape, zip ties, a 3D-printed unloaded gun, and a burner phone.

Both teenagers now face nine felony charges, including aggravated assault, kidnapping, and second-degree burglary.

Sullivan was released on a $50,000 cash-only bond and is wearing an electronic monitor. LaPaille’s bond was also set at $50,000, though it was unclear whether he had posted it.

Their attorneys have argued the teens were manipulated. Sullivan’s lawyer told the court his client was targeted online and that his parents had no knowledge of what was happening.

The teens themselves told investigators they had been extorted into carrying out the crime.

An FBI spokesperson confirmed the agency is aware of the investigation but said it is not currently involved.

The mystery figure known as “Red” has not been charged and remains unidentified. Prosecutors acknowledged in open court they do not know his current whereabouts.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Macro Shock Could Trigger Risk-Off Behavior Among BTC Investors

In a March 28th post on the X platform, Alphractal founder and CEO shared that the participation of the United States labor force has been in a steep decline over the past few weeks. According to the crypto pundit, the Labor Force Participation is one of the most underrated macroeconomic signals in the current market landscape.

Wedson highlighted the major trends of the Labor Force Participation over the last two decades and its impact on the S&P 500 index. According to the highlighted data, participation reached its peak around 2000, before collapsing during 2008 financial crisis, briefly recovering, and then falling to historic lows during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As the labor force participation rate dwindled, the S&P 500 soon followed despite its initial show of resilience. The same can be seen for Bitcoin in the chart below, which seemed to succumb to the macro stress each time the LFP suffered a nosedive.

Wedson noted that, before the “liquidity” flood sent the Bitcoin price to new highs, the market leader initially fell to cycle lows as the labor participation crashed during the COVID lockdown in 2020. What’s different now is that there’s no obvious liquidity fuel to take advantage in the current labor participation plunge.

Wedson wrote in his post:

A falling participation rate means fewer people working, less consumption, weaker real economic output. The stock market can diverge from that reality for a while but not forever.

According to the Alphractal founder, the specific risk for Bitcoin is a macro shock that triggers a risk-off behavior among investors, with most market participants fleeing to safety before the next accumulation phase begins. And, as rightly baked in the steadily-declining Coinbase Premium, the demand for BTC among US investors seems to be in a steady downturn.

Bitcoin Price Overview

As of this writing, the flagship cryptocurrency is valued at around $66,750, reflecting a roughly 1% jump in the past 24 hours. The single-day action has not been enough to wipe out losses from the past week, which still stand at more than 5%.

Security Probe Stretches Back To Biden White House

Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick Thursday, asking for internal documents and communications tied to Bitmain Technologies, the Beijing-based company that makes a dominant share of the world’s bitcoin mining machines.

According to Bloomberg, which first reported the letter, Warren wants to know what the department has done to address what she called “potential national security concerns” — and whether business ties to the Trump family have shaped any of those decisions.

The federal probe Warren is pressing on is reportedly known as “Operation Red Sunset,” though details about the investigation have not been publicly disclosed. Led by the Department of Homeland Security, it examined whether Bitmain’s ASIC mining rigs could be remotely manipulated for espionage or used to knock out parts of the US power grid.

The investigation was launched under the Biden administration and carried into the opening months of Trump’s current term. Based on Bloomberg’s November 2025 reporting, its status remains unresolved.

The security questions around Bitmain did not start with Operation Red Sunset. A Senate Intelligence Committee report from July 2025 concluded that Bitmain hardware “can be forced by the PRC to turn over data” under China’s national security law.

A year earlier, a federal review ordered the divestment of a mining operation near Wyoming’s Francis E. Warren Air Force Base over what officials described as significant national security concerns tied to foreign-made equipment.

Trump Sons Spent $314 Million On The Same Rigs Under Scrutiny

What sharpens the political edge of Warren’s letter is who has been buying Bitmain hardware in bulk. American Bitcoin Corp., co-founded by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. in a joint venture with mining company Hut 8, reportedly signed a contract in August 2025 to acquire 16,000 Bitmain machines for $314 million, paid in pledged bitcoin rather than cash. That deal came from SEC filings cited by Bloomberg.

The company has since grown its fleet considerably. Reports indicate American Bitcoin added another 11,298 machines earlier this month, bringing its total to roughly 89,000 rigs producing about 28.1 exahashes per second of mining power. Its bitcoin treasury has reached around 6,900 BTC — worth approximately $462 million at current prices.

Warren’s letter asks Lutnick directly what steps his department has taken to keep national security decisions clear of influence from firms with Trump family business connections.

Featured image from Quartz, chart from TradingView

The Coinbase Premium Collapse

One of the clearest windows into institutional Bitcoin behavior has now swung substantially negative. According to CryptoQuant data reviewed by crypto analyst Darkfost, the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Coinbase Advanced and Binance, has plunged to its most negative reading since the crypto crash in early February.

The indicator carries particular significance because of the type of trading that’s majorly going on in each exchange. Coinbase Advanced is the platform of choice for professional and institutional investors, while Binance serves a broader, predominantly retail base. Whenever Coinbase prices are trading at a discount to Binance, then that means institutional participants are selling more than the wider market.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium. Source: @Darkfost_Coc On X

Institutional sentiment is being shaped by ongoing geopolitical and economic developments. The conflict in Iran, rising oil prices, and concerns around inflation and bond yields are feeding directly into how institutional investors are investing in Bitcoin.

These are precisely the kinds of macro variables that large funds and institutional desks are structurally sensitive to, and with conditions deteriorating in recent days, these institutions are reducing their Bitcoin exposure in response.

A Stubborn Ceiling At $72,500

Even if macro sentiment were to stabilize, Bitcoin is still facing a structural obstacle that on-chain data makes difficult to ignore. According to a second metric tracked using CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s price action is still unable to reclaim its realized price when inactive supply is excluded. 

This adjusted realized price filters out Bitcoin that has not moved in more than seven years. Once it has been over seven years since it has been moved, the coins will be considered to be either permanently lost or held by long-term holders who do not participate in market activity. Stripping away that dormant supply produces a cost basis that more accurately shows the coins actually circulating in the market. 

At the time of writing, that adjusted realized price is sitting at approximately $72,500. Interestingly, the entire Bitcoin realized price is even below this level.

BTC Adjusted Realized Price. Source: @Darkfost_Coc On X

The significance of this level becomes clearer when placed in historical context. In previous bear market phases, Bitcoin has often spent between six and ten months below this cost basis before managing to break above it again. The current structure is beginning to resemble those earlier periods. Although the Bitcoin price managed to break to $76,000 in the middle of March, it has since returned to trading below the adjusted realized price.

If the current cycle follows suit, the implication is that Bitcoin may face several more difficult months trading below and around $72,500 before a sustained recovery becomes viable. 

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The Conviction That Changed The Conversation

Roman Storm, co-founder of the cryptocurrency mixing platform Tornado Cash, was found guilty in August 2025 of conspiracy charges tied to the operation of an unlicensed money-transmitting service.

His conviction sent a chill through the developer community. It also made the legal definitions buried inside pending crypto legislation feel a lot more urgent.

That backdrop is now shaping a public dispute between Senator Cynthia Lummis and prominent crypto attorney Jake Chervinsky over whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — widely known as the CLARITY Act — actually protects the developers it claims to defend.

Don’t believe the FUD– we have worked on a bipartisan basis for the last few weeks to make changes to Title 3 that make this bill the strongest protection for DeFi and developers ever enacted. We have to pass the Clarity Act to get these protections. https://t.co/CMQNHuvvFv

— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) March 27, 2026

CLARITY Act: What Chervinsky Gets At

Chervinsky’s concern is specific. Title 3 of the current Senate Banking Committee draft, he argues, contains money transmitter language broad enough to pull non-custodial software developers into Bank Secrecy Act territory — meaning KYC obligations and the regulatory exposure that comes with them.

His position: that result would effectively hollow out the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which was written precisely to keep non-custodial builders out of that category.

But the draft also has provisions in Title 3 that undermine the BRCA and subject all sorts of non-custodial software developers to KYC obligations anyway.

Those sections must be fixed or the bill doesn’t work for DeFi.

If the bill doesn’t work for DeFi, it doesn’t work at all.

— Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) March 26, 2026

“The biggest challenge is ensuring non-custodial software developers aren’t misclassified as money transmitters,” Chervinsky said. He called the issue non-negotiable for DeFi, and said it remains unsettled.

The tension he’s flagging isn’t small. Section 604 of the CLARITY Act does incorporate the BRCA, which states that developers who don’t hold or control user funds should not be treated as financial institutions. But Chervinsky’s read is that other language in Title 3 creates enough ambiguity to undo that protection in practice.

On Friday, Lummis fired back directly. She said recent bipartisan revisions to Title 3 make the bill the strongest protection for DeFi developers ever put into law.

“Don’t believe the FUD,” she posted on X, urging supporters to back the legislation’s passage.

While earlier drafts of the CLARITY Act have been made public, the latest negotiated revisions referenced by Cynthia Lummis have not yet been fully released. That means the specific changes she is describing cannot be independently verified — at least for now.

What is known: the bill is gaining momentum. Bipartisan progress on stablecoin rewards provisions has pushed it closer to a Senate Banking Committee markup, expected sometime in April.

Chervinsky has noted that those stablecoin provisions have consumed most of the public attention, leaving the developer protection debate in the background despite its significance.

For developers watching closely, the stakes could not be more concrete. The question of whether writing non-custodial software qualifies someone as a money transmitter is not theoretical.

Roman Storm found that out in court. Until the revised CLARITY Act text is available for review, the industry’s only assurance is a senator’s word on social media.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

$2,000 Breakdown Signals A Shift In Market Structure

Ethereum has just broken below the $2,000 level, a key zone that has been on watch for weeks. According to CyrilXBT, the price is currently trading around $1,985. This level has acted as a strong pivot for sentiment, and slipping beneath it signals a clear shift in control.

Each time Ethereum tested the $2,000 level, it managed to bounce and maintain strength. However, this time is different, as price has now closed below it, turning former support into potential resistance. That kind of transition often marks a bigger change in market behavior, especially when followed by continued weakness.

Volume has also declined noticeably, suggesting a lack of strong buying interest at this level. Without conviction, the price struggles to find the momentum needed for a meaningful recovery. This type of low-volume environment often leads to slower moves, but it can also precede larger impulsive drops if sellers step in aggressively.

Looking ahead, the $1,750 macro trendline stands out as the last major support on the chart, and price is gradually approaching it. A break of that level would open the door to a deeper retracement, while a strong defense could spark a temporary relief bounce. On the upside, the EMA 200 at $2,758 remains far above current levels, emphasizing how much Ethereum has deviated from its broader trend.

A reclaim of $2,100, followed by a strong hold above it, would be necessary to shift the current outlook and signal that buyers are regaining control. Until then, Ethereum remains under pressure, with momentum favoring the downside, making it one of the weakest setups on the watchlist.

Ethereum Breakout Potential: No Certainty

In a recent analysis by Bitcoinsensus, Ethereum is seen pressing against a well-defined trendline that has already been tested multiple times. The repeated rejection from this line highlights its strength as a key resistance zone, where sellers continue to step in and defend control.

Each retest adds more pressure beneath the surface, gradually weakening the level over time. While the structure continues to hold for now, the more price interacts with this resistance, the more fragile it becomes, increasing the probability of a decisive move.

Another attempt could be enough to trigger a breakout if buying momentum steps in with enough strength. However, no outcome is guaranteed at this stage, and the price could easily face another rejection from this zone.

ICE Investment In Prediction Markets Rises To $1.6 Billion

On Friday, March 27th, NYSE’s parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, revealed that it has completed a new $600 million direct cash investment in crypto prediction market platform Polymarket. This cash investment comes as the firm’s participation in an equity capital fundraising round by the prediction market platform.

According to the announcement, ICE also expects to complete the acquisition of up to $40 million of Polymarket securities from certain existing holders. As mentioned earlier, this equity injection ties into the $2 billion investment arrangement that the Intercontinental Exchange made with the platform late last year.

In October 2025, ICE completed an initial $1 billion direct cash investment in Polymarket, with the latest $600 million deal bringing its commitment to $1.6 billion so far. With its bet on Polymarket particularly increasing, Intercontinental Exchange’s investments represent significant institutional validation for the burgeoning prediction markets industry.

According to multiple reports, Polymarket’s fiercest competitor, Kalshi, recently completed a $1 billion raise with a $22 billion valuation, reflecting the rise of the prediction market industry. However, the industry has seen some regulatory hiccups over the past few months, especially with state-level authorities in the United States.

Despite receiving the Commodities Futures Trading Commission’s approval in 2025, Polymarket (and other prediction market platforms) have been banned from offering event contracts in certain US states. About 11 US states have taken legal action against prediction market platforms, accusing them of operating illegally in their jurisdiction.

Polymarket Outlines Insider-Trading Rules For Users

It hasn’t been all rosy for Polymarket on the federal level, either, as the issue of insider trading has generated significant scrutiny multiple times over the past few months. Specifically, this issue has sparked national security concerns as government insiders are feared to be trading using confidential information on the prediction markets.

Earlier, the prediction market platform unveiled an update to its “Market Integrity” rules to preemptively block politicians, candidates, and sports insiders from trading on related markets. The new language explicitly prohibits trading on stolen or confidential information if it would violate a duty of trust or confidence (classic insider‑trading standard).

These new guardrails, although they came after intense scrutiny, will be aimed at reducing instances of market manipulation and, ultimately, making the prediction markets fair and transparent.

How Game Theory Applies To Bitcoin’s Market Structure

The Bitcoin Game Theory framework offers a different lens on market structure, one that focuses on price and on participants that are acting in alignment or drifting apart. Its core purpose is to track coordination across the network and identify when that balance begins to break down.

According to a Delphi Digital post on X, in May 2022, the framework detected early signs of coordination fracturing and signaled a move to cash at $33,988. In the following months, BTC declined by an additional 54%. Meanwhile, a similar pattern emerged in October 2025, with the model exiting at $115,321, preceding a 45.5% drawdown.

In both instances, the regime classifier identified the shift in breakdown before the price confirmed the move. These downturns were characterized by speculative capital overwhelming patient capital, leading to a collapse in coordination. Delphi Digital stated that for allocators, the key question now is whether current market conditions justify continued structural exposure.

The current phase of the Bitcoin market reflects a transition between different groups of large holders, often referred to as whales. An analyst known as CW on X noted that long-term or old whales completed their accumulation phase last October and have finished positioning themselves well ahead of a potential rally. In contrast, a newer wave of whales is still in the process of building positions. 

This ongoing accumulation may be one of the key reasons behind the delay of the start of the rally. What makes this cycle unique is the expected shift in leadership. Historically, BTC bull runs have been driven primarily by a single dominant group of whales. However, this cycle is expected to be led by both old and new whales.

While the current market conditions may appear slow and uneventful, this accumulation dynamic suggests that underlying pressure is building. If both groups converge on their positions, the resulting rally could be significantly stronger than in previous cycles.

Why Bitcoin Revisiting Old Prices Is Not Bearish

Crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards has pointed out that the current timeline is obsessed with Bitcoin being at the same price it was in 2021. The key observation is that BTC should see a continuous growth, higher bases, and explosive bull markets.

If this trend continues, projections suggest that BTC could reach around $200,000 in 2027 and 2030, with potential expansion toward $500,000 in 2033 and 2035.

A Fee Built For Advisors, Not Just Investors

The bank filed an updated S-1 registration statement with the SEC on Friday, setting the fee for its proposed Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust at 0.14%.

If approved, that would make it the lowest fee of any spot Bitcoin ETF currently trading in the US market. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the fee was set with advisors in mind — at that price point, no one on the firm’s sales floor would feel awkward recommending the product to clients.

That is a practical calculation. Advisors who push high-fee products into client portfolios face questions. At 0.14%, those questions go away.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust charges 0.25%. The Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust sits at 0.15%. Morgan Stanley is going in one basis point below both of its nearest rivals.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart called it a big move and said an early April launch is likely, pending regulatory approval.

WOW. We have the fee on Morgan Stanley’s spot bitcoin ETF $MSBT. Will charge just 0.14% !!! Big move here. They are not messing around. Likely to launch in early April. https://t.co/R0iA3wMB5N

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) March 27, 2026

First Bank To Issue A Spot Bitcoin ETF

Approval would put Morgan Stanley in a category of one. No major bank has yet issued a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US. That distinction, combined with a rock-bottom fee and a distribution network of thousands of advisors, gives the product a strong early position if it clears the SEC.

The bank named Coinbase and Bank of New York Mellon as custodians for the fund. Those are two of the most established names in digital asset custody, and the pairing signals that Morgan Stanley is building this to last — not testing the waters.

Rivals will now face a decision. The $83 billion spot ETF market has operated with fees clustered around 0.20% to 0.25%. A new entrant coming in below all of them puts pressure on existing providers to respond or accept the risk of losing assets over time.

The Bitcoin ETF is one piece of a larger push. In January, Morgan Stanley also filed for a Solana ETF and a staked Ether ETF. Weeks later, it applied for a national trust banking charter that would allow it to custody digital assets, carry out trades, and offer staking services directly to clients.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Shiba Inu’s Exchange Netflows Turn Positive As SHIB Faces Sell-off

CryptoQuant data shows that Shiba Inu’s exchange netflows have turned positive, with a difference of around 39 billion SHIB. This indicates that the meme coin is facing increased selling pressure, as exchange inflows are currently well ahead of outflows. This development also coincides with the SHIB price decline, with the meme coin down 5% in the last week. 

Santiment data also shows the massive gap between Shiba Inu’s exchange inflows and outflows, further confirming the sell pressure that the meme coin is currently facing. As of March 28, Shiba Inu’s exchange inflow is 69.2 billion, while the outflow is 30.74 billion. Another negative is that SHIB whales are currently sitting on the sidelines and choosing not to accumulate the meme coin. 

Related Reading: Can Shiba Inu Still Make A Comeback? Lack Of Update On Shibarium L3 Proves To Be A Problem

Further data from Santiment shows that daily Shiba Inu whale transactions are currently in the single digits and effectively non-existent, down from an average of over 100 transactions recorded in December 2025. However, a positive for SHIB is that its supply on exchanges hasn’t climbed to the highs seen in September 2025. The current supply on exchanges is 138 trillion, still below the September high of 143 trillion. 

Meanwhile, although Shiba Inu whales are choosing not to accumulate and remain on the sidelines, the supply held by these cohorts remains steady, indicating there has yet to be a massive sell-off. These whales currently hold 774.25 trillion SHIB, above the recent low of 690.91 trillion SHIB.  

Shibarium Transactions Waver

Shibariumscan data shows that daily transactions on the layer-2 network remain volatile, with brief surges followed by new lows. The daily Shibarium transactions notably climbed from 3,430 on March 25 to a one-month high of around 10,940 on March 26. However, daily transactions quickly fell to a low of 1,230 on March 27. 

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that a significant number of these Shibarium transactions over the last few days have been zero-dollar contract call transactions, signaling a lack of utility for the layer-2 network at the moment. Shiba Inu burns have also crashed as a result of the decline in daily transactions on Shibarium. Shibburn data shows that Shiba Inu burns in the last 24 hours have crashed by 66%, dropping to 2.7 million SHIB. 

At the time of writing, the Shiba Inu price is trading at around $0.000005737, down over 3%, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Fear Takes Hold In The Options Market

The shift shows up clearly in one key metric. Bitcoin’s 30-day options delta skew climbed to 15% on Friday, a level that signals traders are paying a sharp premium for downside protection.

Under normal conditions, that figure sits between -6% and 6%. Based on data from derivatives platform Deribit, put options — bets that price will fall — were trading at 0.0580 BTC, or roughly $3,786, for an April 24 contract at the $66,000 strike.

That pricing implies a 50% probability of Bitcoin staying below that level by month’s end. Fear has been the dominant force in Bitcoin options since mid-January.

The broader selloff hit hard on Friday. Bitcoin dropped to $65,500, a 7.5% fall from the $71,300 it had reached just the day before. That single move wiped out more than $200 million in leveraged long positions and rendered nearly all call options worthless ahead of an $18.5 billion monthly expiry.

Bears were in control. Put options at the $69,000 strike or above carried over $2 billion in open interest, and 95% of call options expired void.

Part of the drop, reports indicate, had little to do with price conviction. Some traders simply didn’t want to carry Bitcoin exposure into the weekend, a common pattern when geopolitical risk is elevated and US markets are about to close.

Oil At $100 And Rising Bond Yields Squeeze Risk Assets

The pressure on Bitcoin didn’t come from crypto alone. West Texas Intermediate crude oil hit $100 a barrel on Friday. The jump is tied to rising tension in the Middle East, along with projections of up to $200 billion in additional US military spending.

That combination stoked inflation fears and pushed investors toward safer positions. Five-year US Treasury yields reached 4%, up from 3.70% just three weeks earlier — a fast move by bond market standards. The S&P 500 fell to its lowest point since September 2025.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by 20% so far this year. That gap is wider than the broader macro environment alone can explain.

For now, the options market has its answer on where Bitcoin is headed this April — and it isn’t higher. With macro pressure building, policy tailwinds fading, and traders reluctant to hold through the weekend, the path of least resistance points downward.

Whether Bitcoin holds $66,000 or breaks below it may depend less on the coin itself and more on what happens in Washington and the Middle East before the month runs out.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

BTC Whales Move Billions Off Exchanges

In a rather lengthy post on X this week, market analyst Crypto Patel disclosed that a staggering 23,483 BTC, valued at $1.66 billion, recently vanished from crypto exchanges. He noted that the movement has surprisingly received little attention from the broader market and crypto community, despite being one of the most important developments this month. 

The analyst revealed that the outflow had occurred on March 23, with Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, leading the way, meaning it saw the most outflow. Crypto Patel further noted that Binance is a whale-dominated exchange, suggesting that large holders likely drove the recent BTC disappearance. He clarified that these whales are probably not preparing to sell, but rather may be transferring their assets into cold storage for long-term holding. 

Following the recent decline, the market expert disclosed that total Bitcoin exchange reserves had plummeted to 2.7 million BTC across all platforms. He highlighted that this marks the lowest level ever recorded since April 2018, nearly eight years ago. Further raising concerns about the recent developments, Crypto Patel stressed that the decline in BTC supply on exchanges matters more than one would think. 

To illustrate this point, he compared a crypto exchange to a store shelf. Crypto Patel stated that when the shelf is fully stocked, prices tend to remain stable. However, when supply is low, and buyers begin to arrive, prices can rise very quickly. With BTC exchange reserves at their lowest in almost eight years, Crypto Patel warned that a sudden spike in demand could trigger sharp price movements. 

Significance Of Bitcoin Whale Movements In The Market

In his post, Crypto Patel explained the significance of whales moving BTC in or out of exchanges. According to him, when whales transfer their coins from exchanges to cold storage, it typically signals a more bullish outlook, as supply becomes tighter. Conversely, he emphasized that large inflows of BTC into exchanges can be a major bearish signal, suggesting that large holders may be preparing to sell their coins—an action that could trigger extreme market fear and increase broader selling pressure.

Interestingly, Crypto Patel noted that each time reserves have declined to low levels, Bitcoin has experienced a major price spike. He pointed out that in 2020, exchange reserves had dropped significantly before the price skyrocketed toward its former ATH around $69,000. Similarly, in 2024, the same pattern occurred before Bitcoin surged to new highs. With reserves in 2026 now at their lowest in years, the analyst hints that a similar price increase could occur soon.

Efforts toward peace have so far been rebuffed, contributing to the increased volatility across the crypto market. However, amid the chaos and ongoing uncertainty, both BTC and Ethereum remain resilient. 

The Latest Update On The US-Iran War

Today, March 28, marks the 28th day of the conflict with Iran that began on February 28, 2026. Recent developments indicate continued military engagement following Iran’s rejection of Trump’s diplomatic overtures on March 23. In response, the United States and Israeli forces conducted extensive strikes, targeting Iran’s missile sites, air defenses, and other military infrastructure. 

Reports reveal that Iran released images showing the damage from recent overnight attacks in Tehran and the northwest regions. They also executed a missile strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 27, injuring at least 10 US service members, with some reports suggesting higher casualties across the campaign.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated recently that US operations were ahead of schedule, potentially concluding within weeks without the deployment of ground troops. Meanwhile, Trump extended a pause on strikes against Iranian energy facilities until April 6, 2026, citing ongoing diplomatic efforts. Iran, however, rejected the US 15-point proposal delivered through Pakistani mediators and issued its own five conditions, including reparations and formal recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz. 

As of writing, no ceasefire has been agreed upon, and both sides continue to signal the potential for further escalation. Tehran has also insisted that it will decide when the brutal war stops despite facing heavy losses after the US hit over 10,000 Iranian targets and degraded its missile and drone capabilities as well as its navy and air defenses. 

How This Can Affect Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices 

The ongoing geopolitical tensions have led to short-term price swings in Bitcoin and Ethereum as traders react to headlines on military action, oil supply risks, and diplomatic progress. In the early days of the strikes, Bitcoin crashed to $63,000 before quickly recovering to above $67,000 and trading near $70,000 in recent sessions.

Ethereum has shown similar patterns, with its price fluctuating with new developments in the war, even as it maintains resilience alongside Bitcoin. Normally, geopolitical conflicts can create short-term volatility in cryptocurrencies, but the overall outcome depends on the duration of the war, oil prices, and broader risk sentiment.

Just today, CMC data shows that Bitcoin has crashed to $66,000, with analysts predicting a further decline to $49,000 amid broader market sell-offs and mixed diplomatic signals. The Ethereum price has also fallen below $2,000 amid escalating geopolitical tensions, pushing investors away from risk assets and triggering widespread selling.  

The ongoing war continues to unsettle cryptocurrencies, adding to the pressure from an already sluggish bear market. Given how choppy Bitcoin and Ethereum’s prices can get during periods of crises, it appears the market may see little relief until global tensions ease and investor confidence is restored. 

Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

Market Volatility On The Rise As Available Liquidity Tapers

In a recent CryptoQuant post via QuickTake, XWIN Research Japan highlights that the Bitcoin market is going through a critical phase, where slight institutional activity could offset major changes in its price. The research group points out reasons for this hypothesis, stating first that there has been a significant decline in trading volume.

According to XWIN Research, this fall in trading volume has occurred for several months, resulting in little market liquidity. In this condition, the market is highly sensitive to news and even short-term flows, creating an exponential effect on the market.

This present situation is further reinforced by the Bitcoin: Active Addresses metric, which tracks the number of unique wallet addresses actively sending or receiving Bitcoin over a given period. When active addresses decline alongside price, it indicates a weak demand is present, and that the Bitcoin market is likely to struggle with a recovery.

Notably, XWIN Research Japan states that “while some on-chain metrics have recently improved, they are not strong enough to confirm a trend reversal.” As such, any reversal seen in the current market conditions could be merely temporary.

Growing Macroeconomic Pressures Widen Room For Fear

Aside from the internal dynamics of the Bitcoin market, broader macroeconomic forces are also playing a significant role in Bitcoin’s price weakness. The research group explains that the rise in oil prices caused by the US-Israel-Iran conflict has boosted inflation expectations higher than usual. For this reason, the macroeconomic market is witnessing a rise in expectations for a rate hike and tightening financial conditions.

Concurrently, inflation concerns have led to significant sell-offs of bonds, causing a simultaneous decline across equities, gold, and cryptocurrencies. Notably, this behavior is in contrast with that expected during traditional risk-off scenarios, where capital typically rotates into safer assets (bonds, for example). 

Ultimately, XWIN Research Japan sees the Bitcoin price dropping further in the near-term, except in the event where current liquidity conditions and on-chain activity both see definite recovery. In this case, the central factor that would define the market conditions is the US-Israel-Iran conflict, as this influences inflation levels and interest rates, which would in turn affect the overall direction of the market.

At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at around $65,981. Per data from CoinMarketCap, the world’s leading cryptocurrency has been devalued by approximately 4.01% since the past day.

BTC Overall Demand Still On The Decline

In a new post on the social media platform X, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno, revealed why the price of Bitcoin is in steady decline despite significant purchases by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Michael Saylor-led Strategy (MSTR). According to the on-chain expert, this trend can be explained by the contracting overall spot demand for BTC.

Moreno drew this observation from the Demand Growth metric, which measures the rate of change in the accumulation of a specific cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this case) by investors. This apparent demand growth indicator assesses demand by comparing the freshly mined BTC to the amount of unmoved coin in over a year.

In his analysis, Moreno excluded the spot BTC ETFs and Strategy to show a divergence in their movement from the overall metric. As shown in the chart below, BTC demand from the exchange-traded funds and its largest corporate holder has been growing since the end of March, with the overall spot demand still contracting.

Typically, news of positive ETF inflows and fresh Strategy’s treasury acquisitions are welcomed with excitement, as they are believed to have some impact on the value of the premier cryptocurrency. According to the CryptoQuant Head of Research, it is not enough to look at the activities of the spot ETFs and Strategy when judging the current Bitcoin demand.

As CryptoQuant revealed in its latest research report, Strategy is the sole driver of the BTC treasury demand, which has dwindled from its euphoric 2025 high. While most BTC treasury companies have reduced their market activity, Strategy has continuously doubled down on its position with additional Bitcoin purchases.

As Bitcoinist reported, the Saylor-led firm recently added over 1,000 coins to its holdings, bringing its Bitcoin treasury to around 762,099 BTC (around of 3.81% of the entire circulating supply). Meanwhile, the US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded four consecutive weeks of capital inflows, prior to this week’s negative performance.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

After falling to around $65,500 on Friday, the market leader is now hovering around $66,300. According to data from CoinGecko, the BTC price is down by more than 4% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin In Correction Range But Downside Risk Remains – Details

In a QuickTake post on March 27, Kesmeci notes that current price levels indicate Bitcoin is 53% below its all-time high. The analyst explains that while this margin suggests a heavy loss, it also aligns with an expected correction range of 40%-70%. However, the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 bear markets experienced respective drawdowns of 84% and 77%, respectively, indicating a potential crash still exists in this current cycle.

Meanwhile, on-chain cost basis data from key market participants provides further insight into Bitcoin’s current positioning. As of March 24, 2026, new whales, defined as large holders with coins aged less than 155 days, have a cost basis of approximately $82,800. This level now acts as a significant resistance zone, sitting well above the current market price of $66,000, and indicating a large cohort of recent institutional buyers remains underwater, which limits upward momentum as prices approach this region.

On the other hand, stronger support levels exist as Binance user deposit addresses hold a cost basis near $58,900, while miner-associated whale wallets sit slightly lower at $55,900.

Further supporting this structure, the short-term holder (STH) cost basis map as of March 26 highlights a consistent pattern of overhead resistance. The overall STH realized price is positioned at $86,900, with sub-cohorts such as the 1M–3M group at $82,600 and the 3M–6M group at $96,000. Additionally, the 365-day simple moving average stands at $97,700. Together, these levels form a dense resistance cluster that Bitcoin must overcome to signal any meaningful trend reversal.

In contrast, the only nearby resistance currently in play is the STH 1W–1M cost basis at $70,100, which remains above the current price level. On the lower end, the realized price at $54,300 continues to serve as the macro support floor, marking a critical threshold for long-term market structure.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $66,012 on the daily chart, reflecting a 4.21% loss. Meanwhile, trading volume is up by 17.29% and valued at $45.68 billion.  According to Kesmeci’s analysis, every major cost cluster lies ahead. Bitcoin must successfully clear all these levels to confirm a change in market direction. Therefore, until there is a decisive reclaim of $86,900, there are likely no indications of a bullish reversal or new higher price levels to consider.

Altcoins Are Getting Ready To Take Off

Crypto analyst Cryptollica shared a chart showing that altcoins have actually been trading in an interesting trend for a while. According to the post, these cryptocurrencies have been compressing inside a massive wedge, and this did not begin recently.

Cryptollica pointed out that the total altcoin market cap has actually been compressed inside this massive wedge since 2018. This would mean that it has been this way for more than seven years, and that even the explosive altcoin season that was experienced in 2021-2022 also happened inside of this massive wedge.

Using the same trend over the years, the crypto analyst point out that the altcoin market has actually bottomed back in 2025. A similar trend was seen in early 2021, after which followed a legendary altcoin season that saw various altcoins hitting multiple new all-time highs at rapid speed.

If the crypto analyst is correct and the altcoin market is about to break out of this wedge, then it would be very bullish for price. The analyst predicts an over 500% increase, which would mean the likes of Ethereum, Solana, and other altcoins would be hitting new all-time highs.

Altcoin Season Index Stays Neutral

The Altcoin Season Index measures how the top 100 altcoins are performing against Bitcoin. The more of the altcoins are performing better than Bitcoin, the higher the chances that the market is experiencing an altcoin season. This index charts the performance on a scale of 1-100, and in an altcoin season, the index sits above 75.

Presently, the index is sitting at 50, which means that altcoin season is still not here. The Bitcoin dominance has since dropped below 60%, but remains quite high at 58.8%. Hence, it is unlikely that the altcoin season is starting now. This is because an altcoin season usually happens when the Bitcoin dominance drops.

Binance Admits Missteps In Australia

In a Friday release, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) said the Federal Court ordered Oztures Trading Pty Ltd, which trades as Binance Australia Derivatives and is part of the Binance Group, to pay the pecuniary penalty following admitted misconduct. 

According to a Statement of Agreed Facts filed with the court, Binance misclassified more than 85% of its Australian client base as wholesale or professional investors between July 2022 and April 2023. 

That misclassification allowed 524 retail customers to access “high‑risk” crypto derivative products without the consumer protections that Australian law requires, leading to more than A$12 million ($8,2 million) in client trading losses and fees.

ASIC’s review found a series of basic compliance shortcomings. Binance admitted it failed to provide retail clients with a Product Disclosure Statement, did not prepare a Target Market Determination, lacked a compliant internal dispute resolution system, and did not ensure that financial services were provided efficiently, and fairly. 

The company also conceded it failed to meet conditions of its Australian Financial Services (AFS) licence and did not adequately train or ensure the competency of staff responsible for onboarding and client verification.

Regulators Find Serious Oversight Failures

Another troubling element highlighted was how Binance assessed customers’ eligibility for wholesale investor status. It is alleged that the exchange allowed prospective sophisticated investors to retake a multiple‑choice assessment repeatedly until they obtained a passing score, enabling applicants to game the process. 

In at least one case cited by ASIC, a client was classified as a professional investor solely on the basis of self‑certifying as an “exempt public authority” without sufficient verification. Senior compliance personnel also failed to provide adequate oversight of applications and supporting materials, the regulator said.

Those classification failures had tangible financial consequences. The misclassified group collectively incurred A$8.66 million ($5.9 million) in trading losses and paid A$3.8 million ($2.6 million) in fees. 

In 2023, ASIC oversaw approximately A$13.1 million ($9 million) in compensation paid to affected clients; the new court-ordered penalty is in addition to that compensation. Justice Moshinsky also ordered Binance to contribute to ASIC’s legal costs.

ASIC Chair Joe Longo described the breaches as more than mere technicalities. “Binance failed to set up basic compliance checks and incorrectly approved hundreds of applications for complex, wholesale investor products,” he said. 

Longo added that the decision should serve as a warning to global financial services firms establishing operations in Australia: they must comply with the law from the outset and implement robust client onboarding procedures.

In tandem with the exchange’s fine, Binance Coin (BNB) — its native token — saw its price drop by 3% to $608 on Friday, amid a broader market correction. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Rep. Waters Seeks Clarity On Kraken’s Master Account Approval

On Thursday, Representative Maxine Waters, the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, sent a letter to Jeff Schmid, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, questioning the Kansas City Fed’s recent decision to approve a “limited purpose account” to the US’s second-largest crypto exchange, Kraken.

In the letter, Waters seeks clarification from the Kansas City Fed regarding the practical implications of this approval “at a time when Congress has debated whether or not to expand access to the Fed’s payment rails and on what terms.”

Notably, Kraken Financial, Kraken’s banking arm, made history as the first crypto company to gain direct access to the Federal Reserve’s core payment system. This achievement was accomplished after Kraken secured approval from the Kansas City Fed for a Fed master account earlier this month.

As reported by Bitcoinist, the master account’s approval will enable Kraken Financial to expedite and streamline transactions for its large clients and professional traders. Additionally, it will grant Kraken’s banking unit direct access to Fedwire, a prominent interbank payment system that processes over $4 trillion in transfers daily.

The milestone represents a significant triumph for the crypto industry, which had been repeatedly denied access to the Federal Reserve system for years. Previously, the company had relied on intermediary banks to facilitate transfers to other firms.

The lawmaker highlighted that granting a cryptocurrency firm access to the Federal Reserve’s payment system for the first time raises policy, regulatory, and consumer protection concerns, arguing that it is particularly concerning given the rapid pace at which financial innovation is outpacing the rules and safeguards designed to ensure the safety of the financial system.

The Kansas City Fed’s announcement does not disclose specific information about Kraken’s access to the range of Federal Reserve financial services “due to the confidentiality of business information provided by applicants.” However, the announcement raises questions about the approval because neither statute nor the Federal Reserve Board’s Account Access Guidelines refer to a ‘limited purpose account’ type.

Crypto Access To Fed’s Payment Rails Faces Opposition

Representative Waters emphasized that access to the nation’s core payments infrastructure carries significant public responsibility and should not be extended without full transparency, clear legal grounding, and confidence that risks will be properly managed.

Therefore, she requested information no later than April 10, 2026, on the Federal Reserve services that Kraken can now access, the conditions or restrictions that apply, and the prudential, anti-money laundering (AML), and consumer protection considerations that were weighed before proceeding with the approval.

The lawmaker’s letter arrives as banking groups express significant concerns about granting crypto and fintech companies direct access to the Federal Reserve’s payment systems. Traditional banks have cautioned that even limited access could pose a substantial threat to the US payment system and overall financial stability.

For context, Kraken’s limited access to the master account is similar to the “skinny” master account concept initially proposed by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in October 2025.

This type of restricted account would enable payment fintechs and crypto companies to access the Federal Reserve’s payment systems. However, it would exclude other advantages more closely associated with banks, such as the discount window lending facility.

In addition, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) approved conditional bank charters for Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Paxos, and Fidelity in December, raising concerns that it could blur the lines between banking activities and lead to regulatory arbitrage.

Last month, the American Bankers Association (ABA) urged the main banking regulator to postpone its approval of applications for crypto bank charters, suggesting that the agency should wait until the regulatory uncertainties are resolved.

KPMG Will Reportedly Participate In Tether Audit

On Tuesday, stablecoin issuer Tether announced that it had hired a Big Four firm for its first full independent financial audit. A Big Four firm typically refers to one of KPMG, PwC, Deloitte, or EY. In the announcement, Tether never divulged who the Big Four firm that it’s engaging with is, but a report from the Financial Times has now surfaced with the name: KPMG.

Tether has long been on the receiving end of criticism regarding transparency surrounding its asset reserves, including a $41 million fine from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over alleged misstatements about having enough dollars to back its stablecoin, USDT.

Despite the turbulence, USDT has maintained a dominant position in the sector, with its valuation of $184 billion making up for nearly 60% of the total stablecoin market cap today. That said, the company has mostly stayed outside of the US, but recently, it has been making an expansion back into the market.

Earlier this year, Tether launched USAT, another USD-backed stablecoin that’s specifically aimed at American investors. According to the firm, this coin complies with the new stablecoin rules put into effect last year.

The new financial audit, if successful, could further support the company’s push into the country. According to the FT report, Tether is also leveraging support from another Big Four firm: PwC. The London-based accounting company will help the stablecoin issuer ready its internal systems ahead of the inaugural audit.

During the initial announcement, Paolo Ardoino, Tether CEO, noted:

Tether’s mission has always been to build trust through action, not promises. Trust is built when institutions are willing to open themselves fully to scrutiny.

In recent years, stablecoins have gained popularity as they provide for an alternative to fiat for digital asset investors to store their capital in, as well as a means of relatively fast and cheap transactions. The growing interest in the sector has invited regulation around the world, with the GENIUS Act in the US acting as a major milestone for the industry.

Hong Kong also put into effect its stablecoin legislation in August, with the first issuer licenses expected to go out this year. Meanwhile, Japan has already seen the launch of its first yen-backed token known as JPY. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea has been preparing its stablecoin bill for a while now, but after encountering some regulatory roadblocks, the framework has been stalled.

Over in Europe, twelve major banks have come together to form a consortium aimed at launching a euro-based competitor to shake up the current USD-ruled stablecoin market, with a release slated for the second half of 2026.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $67,700, down nearly 4% in the last seven days.

In its March 26 blog post, Ripple framed the initiative less as a narrow tooling upgrade and more as a structural shift in how XRPL is maintained. Senior Director of Engineering at RippleX Ayo Akinyele wrote that XRPL has been running since 2012 and, over that period, has processed more than 100 million ledgers, facilitated over 3 billion transactions, and secured billions in value transfer. That operating history, Ripple argued, is both a strength and a complication: a long-lived production codebase carries legacy assumptions, older design decisions, and engineering patterns that may no longer match the demands of a larger, more complex network.

The company’s core argument is that AI changes the security equation by making it easier to explore edge cases and hidden failure modes at scale. “AI allows us to shift from reactive debugging to proactive, systematic discovery of vulnerabilities, strengthening the ledger faster and with greater confidence than ever before,” Akinyele wrote. He added that for XRPL, resilience “must be continuous: not a one-time validation, but an ongoing process of hardening, testing and improving as XRPL evolves.”

Ripple broke the plan into several layers. It said AI is being integrated across the software development lifecycle through adversarial code scanning, AI-assisted reviews on every pull request, threat modeling, attack-surface mapping, and simulations of edge cases and stress scenarios that would be difficult to generate manually. The company also said it has established a dedicated AI-assisted red team focused on how XRPL features interact in real-world conditions, especially where legacy logic meets newer functionality.

That red-team effort is already producing findings, according to Ripple and developers involved in the initiative. In the blog post, Ripple said the team has uncovered “10+ bugs,” with only low-severity issues disclosed publicly so far and all findings being prioritized for fixes. In a separate X post, Mayukha Vadari said the effort had already been “incredibly fruitful,” adding that the team had found “a number of bugs across a range of severities.” She described the project as “exactly the kind of continuous, adversarial push XRPL needs as it continues to grow.”

Ripple is also using the moment to address broader code quality issues that sit above any single bug. The post says many problems in long-lived systems stem from structural weaknesses such as limited type safety, inconsistent feature interactions, weak invariant enforcement, and assumptions that are either undocumented or not enforced. The implication is that Ripple is not only trying to catch vulnerabilities earlier, but to reduce the conditions that allow classes of vulnerabilities to recur.

Another major part of the announcement is governance around amendments. Ripple said significant changes will face multiple independent security audits, expanded bug bounty incentives, more attackathons, and clearer readiness criteria before activation. It also said those criteria will be defined and published with the XRPL Foundation, signaling an attempt to formalize the security bar for network changes rather than evaluate them on a looser, case-by-case basis.

Notably, Ripple also highlighted that the next XRPL release will focus on bug fixes and improvements without introducing new features, a choice that suggests hardening the stack is taking priority over shipping more functionality. As XRPL pushes deeper into tokenized assets, payments, and institutional DeFi, Ripple is making the case that the next stage of growth depends less on novelty and more on whether the ledger can keep raising its reliability threshold in public.

At press time, XRP traded at $1.33.

Massive Bitcoin And Ethereum Options Expiry To Shake Markets

A major derivatives event regarding Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two leading digital assets, is poised to put the cryptocurrency market on edge. While the broader market is struggling to gain stability, billions worth of options tied to BTC and ETH are scheduled to expire today.

Crypto expert and investor Milk Road recently announced on the X platform that $16.4 billion in BTC and ETH options are up for expiry. Such large-scale expiries frequently serve as triggers for volatility, as traders modify positions, unwind hedges, and respond to changing conditions across the market. 

According to the expert, this event set to take place today is one of the largest single-day options expiries of the year. With a large percentage of open interest centered on important price points, the short-term direction and liquidity circumstances may be impacted by this expiry’s outcome.

Historically, options expiry at this massive scale leads to the formation of what traders call max pain. Specifically, this is where the price point is at which market makers lose the least, and the majority of contracts expire worthless. As expiry moves closer, prices are expected to be pulled toward this level.

Milk Road flags this event as a gravitational effect, with $16.4 billion expected to create a lot of gravity. Soon, Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to be in a phase of tug of war as options holders and spot traders compete for positions in today’s event. 

Here’s What To Expect Following The Event

As the event approaches, Milk Road has mapped out the potential outcome. While Bitcoin takes the bulk portion of the $16.4 billion notional exposure, Ethereum also accounts for a meaningful chunk. Thus, both assets could swing hard in either direction prior to when the bell rings, and those with active unhedged spot into expiry will be taking on extra risk.

After the event, $16.4 billion in open interest will be taken out, and the max pain gravity disappears with it. In that scenario, the market is likely to decide its next move. However, post-expiry direction hinges on where the spot is positioned when the noise clears. 

If Bitcoin and Ethereum were suppressed into the event today, the release could serve as a trigger for sustained upward movement. Meanwhile, in an opposite scenario where both assets have been running hot, the unwind could be painful, making this event crucial for the market.

A technical breakdown shared by Leshka.eth on X points to a SuperTrend reversal on the daily timeframe, which is a setup that has always led to heavy drawdowns for ETH. The structure is not new, but the way it is forming again has raised concern. If all goes according to the laid out structure, then the ETH price could crash to as low as $1,200.

The SuperTrend Indicator Has Flipped Again

The SuperTrend indicator is a trend-following tool that plots dynamic support and resistance levels based on price volatility. This indicator has reversed bearish on Ethereum’s daily timeframe. According to chart analysis by Leshka.eth, this is the third time this setup has appeared in the current cycle, and the previous two instances ended in steep losses.

The first instance, which formed around the October and November 2025 period, saw Ethereum initially hold a support zone before breaking down. The collapse that followed measured approximately 45.03%, a selloff that wiped out a significant portion of the gains from earlier in the year. Notably, this selloff saw the ETH price fall from above $4,750 until it fell below $2,750.

The second setup came about in early 2026. Again, the ETH price appeared to find footing at a support level in early January, but that support eventually gave way during the second half of the month. This eventually led to a decline that looked like the first episode in magnitude, with the ETH price falling below $1,850 in the first week of February 2026.

That same transition is now taking place again. The SuperTrend has turned red, and this places Ethereum in a condition that has always favored continuation to the downside.

The Line In The Sand

The outlook from this analysis places the important level to watch at $1,990. This is where the current SuperTrend reversal is forming, and it is the make-or-break zone for the near-term ETH outlook. The chart shows a dashed horizontal line as support around the $1,990 price level as the line in the sand that must not be broken. 

Price has already attempted to push higher into resistance around $2,300, as seen in the chart above but those moves have been rejected. According to Leshka.eth, if $1,900 breaks, then the next target is the $1,200 zone. 

The chart annotations point to drops of roughly 45% to 48% after similar setups, and applying that range to the current structure projects Ethereum’s next major zone around $1,200.

The debate intensified after a potential deal surfaced earlier in the week, suggesting the bill would broadly bar platforms from offering yield on stablecoins or assets that operate like bank deposits. That provision, along with other unresolved clauses, has prompted a flurry of comments from industry figures and lawmakers.

Hyperliquid Policy Center CEO’s Warning

Jake Chervinsky, CEO of the recently launched Hyperliquid Policy Center, took to social media platform X (previously Twitter) to push back on how the debate has been framed. 

While acknowledging that stablecoin yield is a headline-grabbing issue, Chervinsky warned it is not the only sticking point. His primary concern centers on protecting non‑custodial software developers from being mischaracterized as money transmitters. 

“That’s non‑negotiable for DeFi,” he wrote, arguing that developers must not be subject to the same regulatory obligations as custodial firms if decentralized finance is to function. He urged fixes to elements of the bill that, in his view, would undermine those protections.

At the heart of Chervinsky’s argument is the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), which appears as Section 604 in the last Senate Banking draft. 

The BRCA explicitly clarifies that “non‑controlling developers and providers” are not financial institutions required to meet know-your-customer (KYC) obligations under the Bank Secrecy Act. 

But Chervinsky says that other portions of the CLARITY Act — specifically parts of Title 3 — still contain language that could subject many non‑custodial developers to KYC duties despite the BRCA’s protections. 

“Those sections must be fixed or the bill doesn’t work for DeFi,” he warned. “If the bill doesn’t work for DeFi, it doesn’t work at all.”

Senate Banking Markup Date Remains Unclear

Senator Cynthia Lummis, a leading GOP negotiator on the measure, responded directly to the social media post and sought to reassure stakeholders that bipartisan progress is near. 

Lummis told Chervinsky not to “believe the FUD,” stressing that negotiators have spent recent weeks drafting changes to Title 3 designed to make the bill “the strongest protection for DeFi and developers ever enacted.” 

The Hyperliquid Policy Center’s CEO answered that both sides largely agree on the need to protect developers and noted that the public draft already contains meaningful safeguards in the BRCA and in Sections 207 and 601. Still, he reiterated his concern about unresolved language in Title 3.

All this unfolds while the timetable for a formal Senate Banking Committee markup remains unclear. The Agriculture Committee has already approved its portion of the legislation in January, but the banking panel has not yet scheduled a markup. 

At the time of writing, decentralized exchange Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, was trading at roughly $38.5, down 1.6% in the previous 24 hours. Nonetheless, the token has made 33% increases in the monthly time frame, outperforming the largest cryptocurrencies during the same time period. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

The disclosure comes amid growing industry pushback from the industry, including fresh opposition from crypto exchange Coinbase over recent changes to the bill’s key provisions.

Crypto Bill’s Stablecoin Yield Prohibition 

Earlier this week Terrett reported that the newest draft would broadly prohibit platforms from offering yield “directly or indirectly” on stablecoins or on assets that function like bank deposits. 

Lawmakers would still permit activity‑based incentives such as loyalty or promotional rewards, but regulators would be charged with defining what incentives are allowed and with crafting anti‑evasion rules within a year.

That policy shift has already generated sharp criticism from crypto firms and advocates, who say the language favors incumbent banks and risks undermining popular rewards programs that drive consumer engagement. 

The market reaction extended to crypto stocks, with shares of Circle (CRCL), the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, dropped about 20% toward the $100 mark during Tuesday’s trading session following reports of the draft’s potential restrictions.

The situation intensified midweek when Coinbase informed Senate offices that it could not support the recently inserted language. 

Coinbase Signals Major Disagreement 

Sources told Terrett that Coinbase’s Global Head of Investment Research, David Duong, said industry participants are working on a coordinated counterproposal designed to demonstrate why targeted alterations are necessary to protect customers and preserve sustainable rewards programs.

The prospect of next week’s release raises several open questions: whether the Banking Committee will set a date for a formal markup of the CLARITY Act portion; how much of the draft may yet change before the committee takes a vote; and how Coinbase and other industry stakeholders will formalize and present their counterproposal. 

For now, lawmakers appear to be balancing competing priorities — tightening rules around yield while leaving room for certain customer incentives — even as firms warn that overly broad restrictions could stifle innovation and consumer choice.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

A report from top analyst Darkfost has identified a developing divergence between gold and Bitcoin that markets are beginning to price. Gold, after an exceptional run that made it one of the strongest performing assets of the past year, has entered a clear correction — breaking below its 180-day moving average in a decline driven partly by margin calls and forced liquidations rather than any fundamental reassessment. The smart money that was long gold is not exiting by choice. It is being forced out.

On the other side of that trade, Bitcoin is consolidating. The price is under pressure, the $70,000 level has not held, and BTC remains below its own 180-day moving average — currently estimated at $89,700 — by a significant margin.

That gap is the problem. The capital rotation narrative requires BTC to be above its 180-day MA while gold sits below its own. One condition is met. The other is not. The trade is being discussed. It has not yet begun.

The Rotation Signal Has a Definition. Right Now, It Is Flashing Red

Darkfost’s framework is deliberately simple, and that simplicity is its strength. Two assets, two moving averages, one binary read: when BTC trades above its 180-day MA while gold trades below its own, the signal is positive — capital is diverging in Bitcoin’s favor. When both assets trade below their respective 180-day averages simultaneously, the signal is negative. No composite index, no weighted formula, no room for interpretation.

By that measure, the current reading is unambiguous. Gold has broken below its 180-day MA. Bitcoin remains below its own at $89,700. Both assets are on the wrong side of their long-term trend lines at the same time, which is the definition of a negative signal. The rotation narrative is circulating. The rotation data is not yet supporting it.

Darkfost is precise about what this framework can and cannot claim. It captures trend divergence. It does not confirm capital movement. The assumption that money leaving gold-related positions is being redirected into BTC is an extrapolation — a reasonable one given historical precedent, but an extrapolation nonetheless. Correlation between gold’s correction and Bitcoin’s stabilization is visible. Causation requires more than a chart.

The signal will turn positive the moment Bitcoin reclaims $89,700, with gold still below its own average. Until that crossing occurs, the rotation trade remains a thesis in search of its trigger.

The Ratio Chart Shows Bitcoin Losing the Argument Against Gold

The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio is trading at 15.07, down 4.02% on the week — a candle that opened at 15.12, reached 16.55, and has since collapsed to a session low of 15.01. That weekly high rejection at 16.55, followed by a near-full retracement to the open, is not consolidation. It is Bitcoin surrendering ground to gold in real time.

The macro picture is what gives the current level its full weight. The ratio peaked near 40 in late 2024 — meaning one Bitcoin bought 40 ounces of gold at the cycle high. It now buys approximately 15. That is a 62% collapse in Bitcoin’s purchasing power relative to gold over roughly fifteen months, erasing the entirety of the 2024-2025 outperformance and returning the ratio to levels last seen in early 2023.

The weekly moving average structure confirms the severity of the deterioration. The ratio has broken below all three MAs — the 50-week, 100-week, and 200-week — with the 50-week crossing below the 100-week in a death cross configuration. All three are now sloping downward in sequence. Price is currently testing the 200-week MA near the 14-15 region — the last structural support this chart offers before the 2023 lows near 9 come into view.

This chart does not support the rotation narrative. It quantifies how far Bitcoin has fallen relative to gold and how much ground it needs to recover before the ratio argument changes.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Why The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Not Coming

Crypto Patel stated on X that the Bitcoin bear market is not coming because everyone appears to be waiting for it to happen while relying on the four-year cycle theory. The analyst explained his unique thesis by outlining a key price level on his accompanying price chart that could signal a shift in Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Crypto Patel noted that if Bitcoin can close a week above $76,000, it would suggest the current market decline was nothing more than a liquidity grab. He referred to this potential movement as an “expanded fiat deviation,” emphasizing that similar patterns have historically trapped bearish traders at every major cycle low. According to him, once this deviation begins, it could signal that the market is preparing for a major bullish reversal.

Notably, the analyst criticized those who compare the current cycle to the 2018 bear market or the 2022 market crash. Crypto Patel pointed out that, unlike the current market, in 2018, there were no spot ETFs, no Sovereign Wealth Funds accumulating BTC, no public companies holding BTC on their balance sheets, and no states building strategic Bitcoin reserves.

Similarly, in 2022, the analyst highlighted that the market collapse was entirely driven by structural failures rather than a natural cycle top. He stated that the period was marked by widespread leverage fraud, the Luna crash, the FTX collapse, and the meltdown of Celsius and Three Arrows Capital.

In contrast, Crypto Patel noted that the current cycle presents a fundamentally different macro backdrop. He emphasized that institutional inflows are surging as exchange supply hit multi-year lows. Additionally, he noted that the halving-induced supply shock is yet to be priced in. Based on these trends, the analyst suggests that today’s market dynamics are the polar opposite of past cycles.  

Analyst Outlines BTC’s Roadmap Toward $200,000

In his post, Crypto Patel shared a second level after $76,000, which he believes could propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $200,000 this cycle. The analyst described the $98,000 resistance area as a trigger, suggesting that a weekly close above this level would not only confirm Bitcoin’s strength but also completely invalidate its bear market thesis.

According to his bullish roadmap, once Bitcoin breaks $98,000, the market could experience a second wave of panic-driven momentum. At this point, he expects the BTC price to start pushing toward $150,000 with no pullbacks before potentially skyrocketing to $200,000.

An XWIN Research Japan report tracking miner behavior has identified a sharp decline in selling pressure from the mining cohort — the clearest on-chain supply signal of recent weeks. Miners, who represent the market’s most consistent and structurally significant source of fresh Bitcoin supply, have largely stopped selling.

That kind of withdrawal from the sell side does not happen by choice. It happens when forced selling has run its course — when the weakest hands have already capitulated, and what remains is a mining industry that has either hedged, held, or shut down unprofitable operations entirely.

Historically, that condition has a name: late-stage capitulation. And late-stage capitulation has a tendency to precede bottom formation.

The report is careful not to overclaim, and the caution is warranted. Demand remains weak. Supply improving while demand stagnates is a necessary condition for recovery — not a sufficient one. The floor may be forming. The buyers needed to build on top of it have not yet arrived.

The Mining Industry Is Consolidating Under Maximum Stress

The report adds a dimension that the price chart cannot show. Hash rate — the total computational power directed at the Bitcoin network — continues to rise even as mining profitability collapses. Hash price is approaching historic lows. The average cost of production has climbed to approximately $80,000, a level that leaves a meaningful portion of the network operating at a direct loss on every block mined.

That divergence between rising hash rate and deteriorating economics has one explanation: the miners still running are not the ones who should be running on profitability alone. The weaker, less capitalized operations have been forced out or are in the process of being forced out.

What remains is a consolidated industry dominated by large players who have either secured cheap energy, access to capital markets, or a second revenue stream — increasingly, the latter means AI and high-performance computing infrastructure. Mining rigs are being repurposed. Business models are being rewritten.

The structural consequence for Bitcoin supply is direct and durable. A consolidated mining industry sells less, holds more, and responds to price recovery differently than a fragmented one. In the short term, reduced selling pressure supports stabilization. Over the medium term, the supply side of this market has been permanently restructured by the stress that is currently breaking it apart.

The pain is real. So is what it is building.

The Bitcoin Chart Is Not Cooperating

Bitcoin is trading at $67,688, down 1.65% on the day. The session opened at $68,820, reached $69,179, and has sold off consistently since — a candle that rejected the $69,000 level within hours of testing it and has found no meaningful bid on the way down. The attempted push above $71,000 earlier this week has been fully retraced. The chart remembers every failed breakout.

The daily moving average configuration offers no relief. All three MAs are declining in sequence, and the price is trading beneath all of them. The 50-day MA has crossed below the 100-day MA — a death cross confirmed on the intermediate timeframe — with both accelerating lower toward the $80,000–$88,000 region. The 200-day MA, descending from approximately $96,000–$104,000, remains so far above the current price that it functions as a reminder of structural damage rather than actionable resistance.

The February capitulation wick to $59,000 — the highest-volume candle on the entire chart — established the most significant support test of this drawdown. Price recovered from it. The recovery has since stalled, ranged, and is now pressing back toward the lower boundary of that range.

$67,500 is the immediate floor. Below it, $63,000, and ultimately the February low at $59,000 are the next structural references. The on-chain supply signal is constructive. The price has not confirmed it.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Institutions Are More Invested In Solana Than XRP And Dogecoin

The survey shows that more institutions are investing in Solana than XRP and Dogecoin. 36% of these participants had allocations to SOL as of January 2026, while 38% plan to add to their allocations. Meanwhile, 18% allocated to XRP as of January, while 25% plans to add the token to their allocations this year. 

Dogecoin is far behind Solana and XRP, with 2% of these institutions investing in DOGE as of January 2026, while 2% plan to add the meme coin to their allocations. It is worth noting that SOL is only behind Bitcoin and Ethereum and is well ahead of Chainlink, Binance Coin, Cardano, Tron, and Bitcoin Cash. 

This survey contrasts with the current trend among crypto ETFs, showing that investors allocate more to XRP ETFs than to Solana and Dogecoin ETFs. SoSoValue data shows that the XRP ETFs currently boast net assets of $949.15 million, representing 1.14% of the XRP’s market cap. Meanwhile, the Solana and Dogecoin ETFs boast net assets of $849.65 million and $9.12 million, respectively. 

Furthermore, the XRP ETFs have seen more inflows since they launched than the Solana and Dogecoin ETFs. The XRP ETFs currently boast total net inflows of $1.21 billion, while the SOL and DOGE ETFs have seen inflows of $993.38 million and $7.64 million, respectively. 

Institutions Holding Spot ETFs Over Spot Crypto 

The survey also showed that most of these institutions are gaining crypto exposure through the crypto ETFs rather than holding spot crypto. As of January 2025, 64% of these institutions held spot crypto ETFs to gain exposure to Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and other digital assets. This figure has climbed to 66% as of January 2026, signaling that more institutions are investing in crypto amid regulatory clarity. 

Furthermore, 39% of these institutions held spot crypto as of January 2025. However, this figure has decreased to 36% as of January 2026, suggesting that institutions prefer to gain crypto exposure through an ETF wrapper rather than holding crypto directly. These institutions have also been seeking crypto exposure through the digital asset treasury companies (DATs). As of January 2025, 51% of these institutions invested in these DATs, and that figure increased to 53% as of January 2026. 

At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.36, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Onchain Analysts Sounded The Alarm In January

When onchain trackers spotted GameStop moving its entire Bitcoin stash to Coinbase Prime in January, the assumption spread fast — the company was selling. That reading turned out to be wrong. The transfer was part of a structured options play, not an exit.

GameStop sold covered-call contracts with strike prices between $105,000 and $110,000, set to expire this Friday. Under that setup, the company collects premiums upfront and keeps the Bitcoin if buyers walk away without exercising the options. Some January contracts already expired unexercised.

The company still holds one Bitcoin that was kept outside the collateral arrangement. The 4,709 pledged coins remain on the books — just reclassified.

Why The Coins No Longer Appear As Directly Held

Because Coinbase Credit can reuse pledged assets — a practice called rehypothecation — GameStop removed the 4,709 coins from its balance sheet as direct holdings and recorded them instead as a digital asset receivable. The company said in the filing that while the label changed, its exposure to Bitcoin’s price movements did not.

That exposure has not been painless. The pledged coins were valued at $368 million as of January 31, with an unrealized loss of a little over $59 million recorded on that date. Bitcoin has fallen roughly 45% from its record high. The filing also shows a $2.3 million unrealized gain and a $700,000 liability tied to the options position.

Reports indicate chief executive Ryan Cohen met with Strategy chairman Michael Saylor in early 2025 to discuss corporate Bitcoin strategies. GameStop announced its move into Bitcoin shortly after. Before the Coinbase transfer, the company ranked among the top 25 corporate Bitcoin holders by size, according to bitcointreasuries.net.

The SEC filing closes the chapter on what many read as an impending exit. GameStop holds its Bitcoin. It is losing money on paper. And it is now using the position to generate income while it waits.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

CoinShares said Q4 2025 was “the most challenging quarter for Bitcoin miners since the April 2024 halving,” with BTC sliding from an all-time high of about $124,500 in early October to roughly $86,000 by late December, a drawdown of around 31%. Against that backdrop, the weighted average cash cost to produce one bitcoin among publicly listed miners rose to about $79,995 in Q4 2025.

Bitcoin Miners Are Facing A Serious Profitability Crunch

The squeeze has intensified further in early 2026. CoinShares wrote that hashprice fell to about $36–38 per PH/s/day in Q4 and then dropped “significantly further” to $29 in Q1, implying “further pain” ahead for miners. The report also pointed to three consecutive negative difficulty adjustments, the first such streak since July 2022, as a sign of miner capitulation.

CoinShares framed the pressure in unusually direct terms. “The hash price environment has deteriorated beyond our prior expectations, briefly touching ~$28/PH/s/day in late February before recovering to ~$30-35 at the time of writing,” the report said. “At these levels, miners running mid-generation hardware need access to sub-5c/kWh power to remain cash-profitable, while latest-generation fleets (sub-15 J/TH) retain meaningful margin at typical industrial electricity rates.” “We expect further capitulation among higher-cost operators in H1 2026 unless BTC price recovers materially.”

That economics gap is now wide enough to knock a meaningful chunk of the global fleet out of profitability. CoinShares estimated that at a hashprice of $30/PH/s/day, any miner running hardware below an S19 XP with electricity costs at or above 6 cents per kWh is losing money. By its estimate, that covers roughly 15% to 20% of the global mining fleet.

The result is visible in balance sheets and treasury behavior. CoinShares said public miners have collectively reduced BTC treasuries by more than 15,000 BTC from peak levels. It highlighted Core Scientific selling around 1,900 BTC, or about $175 million, in January alone and planning to liquidate substantially all remaining holdings in Q1 2026, while Bitdeer cut its treasury to zero in February and Riot sold 1,818 BTC, roughly $162 million, in December 2025.

At the same time, the report argues that the sector is splitting into two increasingly distinct groups: miners that remain focused on bitcoin production and operators using mining infrastructure as a bridge into AI and HPC.

CoinShares said more than $70 billion in cumulative AI and HPC contracts have now been announced across the public mining sector, with WULF, CORZ, CIFR and HUT “effectively becoming data centre operators that happen to mine Bitcoin.” It added that listed miners could derive as much as 70% of revenue from AI by the end of 2026, up from roughly 30% today.

That pivot comes with its own risk profile. CoinShares said leverage has risen sharply as some miners finance AI buildouts with large debt loads, citing IREN’s $3.7 billion in convertible notes, WULF’s $5.7 billion in total debt and CIFR’s $1.7 billion in senior secured notes. In the report’s view, the sector’s aggregate leverage has “fundamentally changed its risk profile,” even as the market rewards AI-linked operators with richer valuation multiples than pure-play miners.

At press time, BTC traded at $67,850.

Ethereum Price Chart Repeats Historically Bullish Pattern

In an X post published on Thursday, March 26, Merlijn The Trader shared a three-week price chart highlighting a unique pattern, which he says Ethereum has repeated almost perfectly three cycles in a row. He noted that during each cycle, the pattern unfolded in three distinct phases: a consolidation, a trendline retest, and a parabolic rally. 

In the 2016-2018 cycle highlighted on the chart, the Ethereum price started near the lows of $3-$5. The cryptocurrency consolidated sideways for years in the red box zone between $11.5 and $27.5 while building a rising trendline of higher lows beneath it. When the price finally broke out of that trendline, it went parabolic, rising to roughly $1,400 in 2018, reflecting a massive 10,000% price rally. Following this, Ethereum experienced a major price collapse, wiping out almost 90% of its market value, which dragged its price back down to around $80-$100 by late 2018, completely resetting the cycle.   

Similarly, in the 2018-2021 cycle, Ethereum started from lows around $80-$100, then recovered and slowly entered a long consolidation within the red box around $300-$400. Again, the cryptocurrency was building a rising trendline of higher lows beneath it. Once the cryptocurrency retested this trendline, the breakout was enormous, sending ETH all the way above $4,800 by late 2021 and marking a new all-time high. 

This roughly 4,000% rally was also supported by a surge in DeFi activity and the NFT mania during the cycle. After this jump, Ethereum experienced a similar price collapse to the previous cycle, first dropping hard, then bouncing briefly, before finally crashing again to below $1,000 by mid-2022.

What This Means For The Current Cycle

In the current cycle, Merlijn The Trader’s price chart shows that Ethereum is mirroring past cycle trends exactly. The cryptocurrency has climbed back into a new, much higher red box zone around $3,000-$4,000, with the same ascending trendline forming underneath. The consolidation within this box has been prolonged and choppy, underscoring bearish market conditions and weakness.  

Merlijn The Trader’s projection suggests that this cycle has already completed its consolidation and trendline reset and could now be on the verge of an explosive rally. The analyst outlined two possible scenarios for Ethereum’s next move. He predicts that if ETH continues to hold above $2,000, a breakout from the trendline could occur soon, potentially triggering the historical parabolic surge. However, if the cryptocurrency fails to maintain the $2,000 level, its price could decline once more before staging the anticipated rally. 

Crypto Gets A Seat At The Table Where It Happens

The White House is finally giving crypto its due place in debates over AI and what comes next in tech. Analyst TylerD brought to attention that The White House announced on Wednesday the 13 initial members of the PCAST, with room to grow up to 24.

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The lineup, a convergence point for AI, big tech and crypto, includes marquee tech leaders such as Jensen Huang (Nvidia), Mark Zuckerberg (Meta), Sergey Brin (Google), Larry Ellison (Oracle) and Lisa Su (AMD). The council will be co-chaired by AI and crypto czar David Sacks and David Sacks, former U.S. Chief Technology Officer (US CTO).

The crypto names forming the council are not minor ones. We are talking about Fred Ehrsam, the co-founder of Coinbase, one of the largest US centralized exchanges; and Marc Andreessen, who co-founded the VC firm a16z.

Ehrsam left a role as a foreign‑exchange trader at Goldman Sachs in 2012 to launch Coinbase with Brian Armstrong, after the two connected through the Bitcoin subreddit. He served as Coinbase’s first president from 2012 to 2017, helping grow it into the major position it has today, and then stayed on as a board member while becoming a prominent early‑stage investor in the space.

Andreessen has been a prominent bull since his 2014 essay “Why Bitcoin Matters”, and today positions Ethereum and Web3 as core to the next phase of the internet. Through a16z, he has pushed large bets on blockchain, Web3, and AI, and has publicly tied his support for Trump partly to what he sees as a hostile regulatory and banking environment for tech and digital assets under previous policymakers.

Ehrsam and Andreessen, architects of US crypto venture capital and market infrastructure, are now embedded in a body that advises on competitiveness, innovation, and financial plumbing. This is major specially if we compared to  previous cycles, where crypto was mostly on the receiving end of enforcement and guidance rather than sitting inside the advisory structure. This signals digital assets moving deeper into mainstream policy discussions, not farther away.

The PCAST could eventually translate into more predictable rule‑making, clearer treatment of exchanges and stablecoins, and potentially a friendlier stance toward US‑domiciled crypto infrastructure. In the near term, this is not a “number go up tomorrow” catalyst, but it does strengthens the case for viewing regulatory risk as shifting from pure headwind to a possible moat for compliant players over the next cycle.

Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Why Ripple Entered the Stablecoin Market

Garlinghouse said the turning point came well before RLUSD’s launch 13 months ago. “Two years ago, we were minting 20% of all USDC,” he said, tying that activity directly to Ripple’s payments business. With more than $100 billion in payment flows already processed, Ripple concluded that if it was already a major engine behind stablecoin usage, it made sense to bring that function in-house.

He also linked the decision to a moment of stress in the stablecoin market. Garlinghouse pointed to USDC’s temporary depeg during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse as a reminder that institutional users care about balance-sheet strength as much as blockchain rails.

“Circle came out and said, hey, we’ll stand in the gap. We’ll guarantee the peg. And it didn’t move because at that point, Circle didn’t have a balance sheet,” he said. “Ripple has on our balance sheet, you know, 60, 70 billion dollars of crypto. We have about four billion dollars of US dollars. And so I think we’re in a position to really have a very compliant, very institutional focused stablecoin.”

According to Garlinghouse, stablecoins are increasingly adopted not because companies want exposure to crypto branding, but because they want a better way to solve treasury, settlement and cross-border transfer problems. That broader shift, he argued, is already reshaping how the sector is perceived.

Garlinghouse compared the current state of crypto to the internet industry in the late 1990s, when companies led with the technology rather than the use case. “We don’t talk about anything as an internet company now because it’s just prevalent in the background,” he said. “And I think that’s where some of the blockchain and crypto based solutions are heading”. Companies, he added, “just want to solve a payments problem. They want to solve a custody problem.”

On market structure, Garlinghouse expects the stablecoin field to get more crowded before it gets smaller. He said the biggest banks are already evaluating whether they should issue their own stablecoins, but questioned whether the market benefits from too many dollar-backed instruments that ultimately serve the same economic function. “We don’t need, you know, 50 US dollar stablecoins. Like, why? Like, they’re all, it’s still, at the end of the day, a U.S. dollar,” he said.

That does not mean he sees no room for differentiation. Instead, he argued that trust, licensing and reserve transparency will become the real competitive variables as the market matures. Ripple, he said, has deliberately taken a compliance-first route, pursuing not just a New York Department of Financial Services license but also an OCC license.

He added that the sector as a whole needs more regulatory verification and disclosure, pointing even to Tether’s renewed push for an audit as evidence that transparency is becoming harder to avoid.

Garlinghouse was similarly upbeat on the US policy backdrop. He described passage of the Genius Act as a major unlock for demand and said corporate executives are now actively asking whether stablecoins should be part of their operations. While he said follow-on legislation around asset classification has been slower, he argued the tone in Washington has already shifted sharply, citing recent coordination between the SEC and CFTC and predicting further progress by the end of May.

“So I think we already have made huge progress in this administration to provide some of that structure and Clarity [Act]. I think clarity will still pass. I was in Washington two days ago, and I think we’ll still get something. […] I’ll predict by the end of May we’ll get something across,” Garlinghouse said.

At press time, XRP traded at $1.36.

Inside The Multi-Billion Dollar Crypto Scam

The Vietnam’s Ministry of Public Security (national police) announced on Thursday the arrest of at least seven people in relation with ONUS, a Vietnamese-based crypto investment app and exchange that was used by millions of Vietnamese investors, AFP reports through Nampa.

140 people were summoned for questioning before the arrest of fintech and blockchain entrepreneur Vuong Le Vinh Nhan (aka Eric Vuong) and six accomplices, on charges of property appropriation and money laundering. The platform suddenly became inaccessible around March 20, leaving retail users locked out and scrambling for answers.

The police claims Vuong’s group has been operating since 2018, allegedly creating fake coins, issuing and selling them through ONUS, while manipulating supply, demand, and prices to manufacture paper gains and lure in more victims. The scam leaves millions of users affected, and at least one investor saying they were “devastated” after losing over $15,000.

Vietnam has become one of the world’s hottest retail‑crypto markets, with around 17 million digital asset holders. Hanoi bans crypto as a means of payment but allows speculation in a legal grey zone, which scammers exploit: this is not Vietnam’s first case of high-profile crypto fraud.

The country has already seen multiple digital assets frauds and Ponzi‑style schemes. Back in 2018, around 32,000 people may fell victim to a $658 million Initial Coin Offering (ICO) scam for two different cryptocurrencies, both of which were launched by Ho Chi Minh City-based company Modern Tech JSC. In 2024, Vietnamese authorities dismantled another large-scale cryptocurrency scam orchestrated by a company called ‘Million Smiles,’ protecting nearly 300 potential victims from financial exploitation, after it had already swindled around $1.17 million.

Emerging‑market retail booms combined with regulatory grey areas are turning Southeast Asia into a hotspot for “short‑cycle” high‑yield scams, even as regulators worldwide step up enforcement. It would not come as a surprise if we see Vietnam’s policy change its trajectory into an strategy of more pressure for clear rules on token issuance, exchanges, and marketing, and less tolerance for “experimental” platforms operating at scale.

For traders, the ONUS saga is a reminder that jurisdictional risk matters just as much as chart patterns. Enforcement in regulatory grey zones can flip from hands‑off to aggressive overnight, and when that happens, liquidity on localized platforms tends to disappear far faster than most risk models assume. “Too‑good‑to‑be‑regulated” is no longer a clever marketing line; it is a working definition of counterparty risk.

Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Bhutan’s Bitcoin Sell-Offs Cross 8,000 BTC

For years now, Bhutan has been mining and stacking Bitcoin through a government-sponsored mining operation. Over time, this stack grew to thousands of coins, reaching 13,000 BTC back in 2024. According to data from Arkham Intelligence, the country’s stack was worth almost $1.5 billion at its peak in 2025.

With the price rising over $100,000, though, Bhutan had begun to reduce its BTC holdings gradually, selling off millions of dollars’ worth of coins at a time. At first, the country moved slowly, initially starting out by sending USDT balances to the Binance crypto exchange. But then, things began to change as it started to trim its Bitcoin holdings.

This sell-off trend continued into the year 2025, with the government selling off BTC in stacks worth between $1 million and $5 million at the start of the year. However, there has been a major shift in the sell-off volumes in the month of March, as Bhutan moved hundreds of BTC in single transactions.

Some of the notable transactions include 175 BTC worth $11.86 million that was moved on March 9. Then a 205.52 BTC move worth $15.14 million was moved out on March 17. As time went on, the amounts only got higher, crossing 500 BTC in single transactions.

On March 18, 595.84 BTC worth $44.44 million was moved out of the government’s wallet, and then 519.7 BTC worth $36.75 million was moved out on March 25. This latest move brought Bhutan’s Bitcoin holdings down to 4,453 BTC, meaning the country has sold around 8,547 BTC since its holdings peaked at 13,000 in 2025.

So far, the country seems to have made the most transfers to Binance, reaching over $100 million sent to the crypto exchange. However, one interesting name has popped up this year, and that is QCP Capital. QCP Capital is a digital asset trading firm based in Singapore, and according to its public profile, it facilitates trading services between traditional finance and the crypto world.

Taking this into account, the transfers from Bhutan to QCP Capital suggest that it is facilitating the BTC sell-offs for the country. So far, it has handled around $16 million in BTC for Bhutan, and this figure could continue to grow if the country continues to dump its Bitcoin holdings.

As a result, market expert Dom Kwok, co-founder of blockchain firm EasyA Labs, warned on social media platform X (previously Twitter) that Gemini could face bankruptcy before the end of the year. 

Kwok’s forecast ties together several pressure points: multiple class-action suits, an exodus of senior executives, slowing revenue growth, accelerating losses, and what he described as a “doom loop” that could further destabilize the company.

Expert Warns Gemini Could Need Dilutive Bailout 

According to Kwok, Gemini — founded more than a decade ago — continues to post annual losses in the hundreds of millions and is burning through initial public offering (IPO) proceeds at a rapid pace. 

Once those cash reserves are depleted, he said, the firm will likely need highly dilutive financing that would further erode shareholder value and prompt more investors to sell.

Earlier this month, a string of class actions was filed alleging that Gemini misled investors about its growth prospects and concealed internal executive turmoil ahead of the September 2025 initial public offering. 

Plaintiffs contend the company overstated the long-term strength and stability of its core exchange business, exaggerated plans for international expansion and user growth, hid the risks tied to a major strategic pivot and restructuring, and failed to disclose widening losses and departures from the C‑suite.

That pivot became public in February of this year when the exchange unveiled “Gemini 2.0.” The plan calls for a refocus on prediction markets, withdrawals from the UK, the European Union (EU), and Australia, and workforce reductions of about 25–30%. 

The announcement followed a series of senior departures: within weeks, the company’s chief operating officer, chief financial officer, and chief legal officer all left their roles effective immediately, stoking concerns about leadership stability.

Multi-Front Crisis

Kwok highlighted slowing revenue as another major concern. Gemini’s growth has reportedly dropped to 26% in 2025 from 45% the year before. He noted that companies that just go public typically speed up growth, not slow down. 

Operational complaints from users have compounded the firm’s problems. Multiple customers reported account suspensions, difficulties withdrawing funds, unpaid referral bonuses, and poor customer service.

Taken together, the lawsuits, executive turnover, strategic retreat, slowing revenue growth, and user complaints paint a bleak picture for the crypto exchange Gemini and its stock’s near‑term prospects. 

Kwok’s scenario of running through initial public offering cash and then facing dilutive financing rounds sketches a path that could accelerate capital flight and further depress the stock. 

At the time of writing, GEMI had already closed Thursday’s trading session at around $4.59 per share, having recorded additional intraday losses of 7%. No catalyst that could help the stock’s performance has been disclosed yet. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin Has Seen A Notable Value On The Relative Unrealized Loss Recently

In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed the latest trend in the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss, an indicator that measures how the total unrealized loss on the network compares with the asset’s market cap.

The metric works by going through the transaction history of each token in circulation to determine what price it was last moved at. If this last transfer price was more than the current spot price for any token, then that particular coin is assumed to be underwater today. The exact amount of loss held by the token is equal to the difference between the two prices.

The Relative Unrealized Loss totals this difference for all coins of this type and calculates how the sum stacks up against the market cap. Another indicator called the Relative Unrealized Profit tracks the same for the tokens with a cost basis lower than the latest BTC value.

Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss over the last several years:

As is visible in the above graph, the 7-day MA of the Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Loss approached a value of zero in 2025 as BTC set its all-time high (ATH). With the bearish shift that arrived in the last quarter of that year, however, the metric saw a rapid increase.

The continuation of bearish momentum earlier this year caused a further degree of expansion in the indicator and as BTC has been stuck in consolidation since then, the high amount of unrealized losses have maintained on the network.

“Over the past two months, this metric has stabilized above 15% of market cap, a structure closely resembling conditions seen during Q2 2022,” noted the analytics firm. Though, it’s visible from the chart that the latest levels have still been much lower than some capitulation events from the 2022 bear market, including the FTX collapse which marked that cycle’s bottom.

So, given the current market conditions, how long will it take for things to turn around for Bitcoin? The report explained that resolving such a degree of unrealized loss has historically required time, further price depression, or some combination of both. It added:

A sharp V-shaped recovery remains a theoretical possibility, but given the current magnitude of unrealized losses, it would demand an extraordinary and sustained influx of fresh capital within a compressed timeframe.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,600, down 3.5% over the past week.

Stand With Crypto Builds Voter Tools 

In a Thursday press release, the organization said it will back six incumbent lawmakers from both major parties and focus resources on a set of competitive House contests where it believes crypto issues could be decisive.

The voter hub, the group said, will compile up-to-date information on congressional candidates’ positions on digital assets, including scorecards that rate candidates’ favorability based on public statements, legislative records, and responses to a Stand With Crypto questionnaire. 

The group described the hub as a tool to equip its network — more than 2.7 million advocates nationwide — with the information needed to cast informed ballots in November.

Mason Lynaugh, executive director of the Coinbase-backed group, framed the initiative as an effort to convert crypto supporters into an influential voting bloc, stating: 

This year, crypto voters are poised to play a powerful and decisive role at the ballot box — our goal is to equip our more than 2.7 million advocates across the country with the tools they need to make informed choices this November. 

Lynaugh added that the organization’s priority races are intended to help ensure that the 120th Congress is “the most pro-crypto session in America’s history,” and that the initial slate of endorsed candidates already has a record of supporting clear, pragmatic policies that foster innovation.

Stand With Crypto named six members of Congress in its first endorsement round: Representative Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nevada), Rep. Mike Lawler (R-New York), Rep. Don Davis (D-North Carolina), Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), and Rep. Rob Borsellino Bresnahan (R-Pennsylvania). 

Majority Of Crypto Owners Want Clearer Rules 

The group also reported that among 1,000 crypto owners and advocates polled, 59% of crypto owners and 77% of Stand With Crypto advocates are heterogeneous voters who do not reliably vote for a single party. 

The group noted that nearly a third of these voters are persuadable in their respective US Senate contests, suggesting that candidates’ positions on cryptocurrencies could sway outcomes.

Survey results also suggest crypto owners are highly motivated to vote: nearly 80% described themselves as “almost certain” to vote in 2026, and more than 75% said they were enthusiastic about participating in the general election — figures Stand With Crypto said outpace the broader adult population. 

A majority (64%) of crypto owners said they would be enthusiastic about supporting candidates who back the cryptocurrency industry, and about 47% said they could back a candidate who agreed with them on crypto even if they disagreed on other policy areas. 

Importantly for ongoing congressional negotiations on the anticipated CLARITY Act, 74% of crypto owners said they would be more likely to support candidates who favor clearer regulatory frameworks for the sector, with 31% saying they would be much more likely to do so.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

White House Clears DOL’s Proposed 401(k) Rule

The White House’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) has concluded its review of a proposed rule submitted by the Department of Labor that could pave the way for crypto exposure in 401(k) retirement plans.

Notably, the Labor Department rescinded a 2022 guidance that discouraged fiduciaries from including crypto investments in 401(k) plans. The guidance followed a Biden-era executive order (EO) that required the government to assess the risks and benefits of digital assets.

As reported by Bitcoinist, it directed plan fiduciaries under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) to exercise extreme caution before incorporating crypto assets into their investment menus, asserting that the digital asset industry’s early stage could pose significant risks.

The DOL’s proposal, named “Fiduciary Duties in Selecting Designated Investment Alternatives,” could amend the fiduciary guidance for plans governed by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA).

This could potentially allow plan sponsors to include cryptocurrencies and private equity as designated investment alternatives. The federal agency marked the action as “consistent with change” and designed the proposal as an “economically significant” rule in its review, which concluded on March 24.

According to the OIRA website, the proposed rule carries no legal deadline for finalization. However, the DOL is expected to formally release the proposal in the coming weeks, allowing for a standard 60-day public comment period. Following this, revisions will be made, and a final rule will be issued.

US Push To Allow Crypto In Retirement Plants

The proposal follows an executive order signed by President Donald Trump last August seeking to allow more private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency, and other alternative assets in 401(k) retirement accounts.

The order directed the DOL, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Treasury Secretary, and other federal agencies to reduce regulatory barriers that prohibited investments in alternative assets in their defined contribution retirement plans and explore ways to facilitate access to these assets.

In January, Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, discussed the possibility of 2026 being the year investors can own Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in 401(k) retirement plans, citing that the inclusion of digital assets is becoming more common in individual retirement accounts (IRAs).

The executive argued that providers are slow to adapt, but acknowledged that the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance, which effectively removed the ban on crypto from 401(k)s, has opened the door to the multi-trillion-dollar market.

Recently, some US states have pushed to embed crypto into their public financial systems. In February, Indiana lawmakers advanced House Bill 1042 (HB 1042), also known as the Bitcoin Rights Bill, which requires several state-administered programs, including retirement plans for teachers, public employees, and legislators, to offer self-directed brokerage accounts with at least one digital asset investment option.

Multiple US lawmakers have backed the Trump Administration’s initiatives. In September, nine House members requested that the SEC Chairman, Paul Atkins, provide prompt assistance in implementing the president’s executive order and collaborate with the DOL to safeguard workers.

In addition, House of Representatives member Troy Downing introduced a bill to codify Trump’s directive and grant it the “force and effect of law.” This move aimed to facilitate investors’ access to Bitcoin and other alternative assets within their 401(k) retirement plans.

Strategy Behind Most Of The Bitcoin Treasury Buying From The Past Month

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has highlighted how Bitcoin treasury demand is now being driven entirely by Strategy. Treasury companies refer to corporates that keep BTC on their balance sheet as a way of providing their investors with indirect exposure to the cryptocurrency. This model was popularized by Strategy, which, under the leadership of Michael Saylor, has aggressively accumulated BTC.

While the cryptocurrency sector has gone through a bearish shift recently, the firm hasn’t lost its conviction, with regular purchases only continuing. As a result of this steady accumulation, Strategy today controls over 3.8% of the entire Bitcoin supply in circulation, making it by far the largest digital asset treasury company in the world.

It would appear, though, that while the company hasn’t faltered by the change of winds in the market, the same hasn’t been true for the other corporate investors.

As is visible in the data shared by CryptoQuant, the middle portion of 2025 saw a rapid expansion of Bitcoin purchases from companies other than Strategy. These buys meant that total corporate demand far outweighed the accumulation from Saylor’s firm alone.

As the market has gone downhill, however, buying from other companies has dried up. In the past month, Strategy bought about 45,000 BTC, but purchases from other companies totaled just 1,000 BTC. This reflects a collapse of a whopping 99% for the latter.

In percentage terms, Strategy’s buying made up for 98% of the corporate demand from the last 30 days, once again capturing the current asymmetry in the sector. “With ~76% of holdings, the industry is highly concentrated; there is no broad corporate demand right now,” noted the analytics firm.

That said, while Bitcoin treasury companies other than Strategy may have paused accumulation, it doesn’t mean that the firm is the sole treasury buyer in the entire digital asset sector. Bitmine, the largest public holder of Ethereum, has also continued to make regular purchases recently.

Another source of institutional demand in the market today is the US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), exchange vehicles that allow traders to invest in BTC without directly having to interact with blockchain infrastructure.

Earlier, these funds were facing net outflows, but recently, the weekly netflow has managed to get a green streak going, according to data from SoSoValue. These recent small but steady inflows could be an early sign that some institutional interest may be pouring back into Bitcoin.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $69,300, down 3% over the last 24 hours.

A CryptoQuant analyst tracking Binance derivatives data has identified a deleveraging cycle of unusual magnitude: XRP’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has collapsed from 0.59 in mid-July 2025 to 0.13 today — a 78% contraction in eight months. That is not a routine position adjustment. That is a near-complete unwind of the speculative infrastructure that was built during XRP’s most aggressive trading period of the past cycle.

The open interest data confirms the scale of the reset. Binance XRP open interest has fallen to approximately $375 million — a fraction of the highs recorded in previous months, and a figure that reflects a derivatives market that has shed the majority of its leveraged exposure.

What that leaves behind is a market structurally different from the one that existed at the July peak. The crowded trades are gone. The forced liquidation risk has diminished. The reflexive, leverage-driven volatility that defined XRP’s most volatile sessions has lost most of its fuel.

Whether what remains is a floor or a falling knife depends entirely on what the spot market does next.

A Cleaner Market Is Not the Same as a Bullish One

The analyst’s conclusion is measured and precise: the simultaneous contraction in both leverage ratio and open interest represents a broader structural reset in Binance’s XRP derivatives market — not a single metric moving in isolation, but two confirming each other in the same direction over the same period.

What that reset removes is as important as what it leaves behind. A derivatives market carrying a leverage ratio of 0.59 is a market one sharp move away from a cascade of forced liquidations — positions unwinding not because holders changed their view, but because margin calls left them no choice. At 0.13, that reflexive amplification mechanism has been largely dismantled. The market is lighter, less crowded, and significantly less exposed to the kind of liquidation-driven volatility that has defined XRP’s most chaotic sessions.

The analyst frames the forward implication carefully, and the language deserves to be preserved: the market is not primed for a rally. It is primed for a move — in either direction — that will be driven by conviction rather than leverage. When the next catalyst arrives, the price response will reflect genuine demand or genuine supply, not the mechanical amplification of positions that should never have been that large.

That is what a clean setup means. It is a better starting point. It is not a destination.

The XRP Price Structure Has Not Improved

XRP is trading at $1.3753, down 2.77% on the day. The session opened at $1.4145, reached a high of $1.4165 within the first hour, and has sold off consistently since — a candle that rejected immediately at the open and has found no meaningful bid. That price action, on a day that began with a test of the $1.42 area, is a statement.

The daily chart behind it offers no comfort. XRP peaked near $3.30 in late September 2025 and has been in a continuous downtrend for six months without a single higher high. Every attempted recovery — the December consolidation near $1.90, the brief January rally to $2.40, the post-capitulation bounce from $1.15 — has been sold into. Each one was lower than the one before it.

All three moving averages are declining in sequence. The 50-day MA has crossed below the 100-day MA — confirming a death cross on the intermediate timeframe — and both are sloping sharply lower. The 200-day MA, descending from approximately $2.10, sits as the most distant and most significant overhead resistance. Price has not traded near it since January.

Today’s close threatens to break below the $1.40 support level that has contained the range since February. A daily close beneath it puts $1.15 — the February capitulation low — back on the table as the next structural reference point.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The findings come from a January 2026 survey of 351 global institutional decision-makers, 96% of whom represent firms with more than $1 billion in AUM. The respondent base was 60% US, 20% Europe including the UK, and 20% rest of world, spanning asset managers, hedge funds, private banks, venture funds, asset owners, and family offices. Across that group, 73% said they plan to increase digital asset allocations in 2026, while 74% expect crypto prices to rise over the next 12 months.

XRP Among Top 2026 Picks

Bitcoin and Ethereum still dominate institutional positioning, but the diversification trend is clear in the report’s breakdown of current and planned allocations. Bitcoin appears in 94% of current institutional crypto allocations and 91% of 2026 plans, while Ethereum rises from 86% to 90%. Outside the two largest assets, Solana moves from 36% to 38%, Chainlink from 20% to 26%, XRP from 18% to 25%, Binance Coin from 12% to 15%, Cardano from 4% to 5%, Tron from 3% to 4%, and Bitcoin Cash from 3% to 6%. Dogecoin remains marginal at 2% both currently and in 2026 plans.

The XRP figure matters in part because it sits inside a broader expansion in institutional sizing. Among firms already invested in digital assets, the share allocating more than 5% of AUM to the category is expected to rise from 18% to 29% by the end of 2026. The 6% to 10% allocation bucket climbs from 11% to 19%, and the 11% to 20% bucket from 3% to 7%. At the same time, access remains heavily tilted toward regulated wrappers: 66% of digital asset investors now get exposure through spot ETFs or ETPs, 81% prefer spot exposure via a registered vehicle, and net spot crypto ownership via ETF, ETP or direct holdings rose from 76% in January 2025 to 79% in January 2026.

That combination of broader asset selection and tighter portfolio construction runs throughout the report. Among those planning to increase holdings, 65% cited greater regulatory clarity and confidence in compliance frameworks as a key driver, 51% pointed to wider availability of digital assets in regulated vehicles, and 46% to better institutional-grade infrastructure across custody, settlement, and risk.

Smaller firms were the most aggressive, with 77% of the $1 billion to $50 billion AUM group planning to significantly increase or increase holdings, versus 69% for firms in the $51 billion to $500 billion range and 64% for the $501 billion to $1 trillion cohort.

Even so, institutions are not approaching the market with looser standards. The survey found that 49% said recent volatility had strengthened their emphasis on risk management, liquidity, and position sizing, while 22% said volatility caused them to slow down, delay, or keep allocations conservative. Regulation remains both catalyst and constraint: 78% said market structure is the area most in need of clarity, and 66% still cited regulatory uncertainty as a primary concern when investing in digital assets.

At press time, XRP traded at $1.37.

Analyst Axel Adler has published data that reframes the current consolidation entirely: over the 30 days ending March 25, Bitcoin ETF funds absorbed 62,986 BTC in net inflows — $11.3 billion in institutional capital entering the market while the price moved from $64,100 to $71,307. That is not a market drifting. That is a market being quietly bought.

The acceleration signal sharpens the picture further. The 7-day flow average currently stands at 3,288 BTC per day against a 30-day average of 1,256 BTC — meaning institutional buying is running at 2.6 times its own monthly pace. ETF cumulative holdings have reached 1,326,874 BTC, a record that reflects the sustained, compounding nature of this demand rather than a single episodic event.

The counterweight is real and should not be minimized. Short-term holders are consistently realizing losses on exchanges — retail participants selling into weakness, adding distribution pressure that institutional inflows are currently absorbing and overcoming.

That is the structure of this market in one sentence: institutions are buying faster than retail is selling. At $70,000, the question is how long that equation holds.

Retail Is Selling Bitcoin at a Loss

Adler’s second dataset examines the other side of the market structure equation — and it is considerably less comfortable than the ETF picture. The Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchanges metric tracks how many BTC retail participants are sending to exchanges at a loss versus a profit over any 24-hour period. Right now, that reading stands at -15,500 BTC per day flowing to exchanges at a loss, against a total STH exchange inflow of 35,200 BTC per 24 hours.

The arithmetic is unambiguous: the majority of retail activity hitting exchanges is loss-realizing. This is not a temporary anomaly. Adler identifies it as a regime shift — a structural change in behavior that began at the local price peak and has not recovered above the neutral zone since. Short-term holders are not selling opportunistically. They are selling because they are underwater, and they have been for weeks.

What the data does not show is equally important. The -15,500 BTC daily loss flow is consistent with sustained stress, but it lacks the vertical spike that historically marks final capitulation — the exhaustion event where the last forced sellers leave the market simultaneously. That spike has not arrived.

The retail segment remains weak. The institutional segment remains active. The signal that resolves the tension between them is straightforward: loss-side sends compressing while price holds or rises. Until that compression appears, the stress regime remains intact.

The Weekly Chart Shows a Bull Market That Broke

Bitcoin is trading at $69,362 on the weekly timeframe, up 2.22% on a candle that opened at $67,859, reached $72,026, and has since retreated. That weekly high rejection at $72,000 — a level the market tested and failed to hold — is the operative technical fact. The candle is green. The rejection is real.

The macro context the weekly chart provides is essential. Bitcoin emerged from the 2023 base near $25,000, doubled through 2024, and peaked above $125,000 in late 2025 — a full cycle advance of roughly 400% from the breakout point. The current price at $69,362 represents a 45% drawdown from that peak, retracing the entire 2025 advance and returning to levels last seen in November 2024.

The moving average configuration tells the most important structural story. Price has broken below the 50-week MA — the blue line, now turning lower near $98,000 — and is currently testing the 100-week MA, the green line ascending through the $67,000–$68,000 region. That green line has provided definitive support at every major correction in this entire cycle. It held in 2024. It is being tested again now.

The 200-week MA, the long-term red line, continues its steady climb near $58,000 — deep support that has never been violated in Bitcoin’s post-2020 history.

This week’s low of $67,445 held the 100-week MA by the narrowest of margins. Whether it holds on a closing basis is the only question the weekly chart is currently asking.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP Returns To An Oversold Zone

According to a technical analysis from a crypto analyst that goes by the name Cryptollica on the social media platform X, XRP’s long-term 10-day candlestick chart and a modified RSI reading now appear to be trading at levels seen in previous macro turning points.

The historical readings are precise. In 2017, the RSI bottomed at 37 before XRP’s legendary surge. In 2020, it reached 34 ahead of the bull run that carried the cryptocurrency to a multi-year high. In 2022, it fell to 31 during the broader crypto bear market. In 2024, the same RSI was at 36 during the correction low. Today, in March 2026, the RSI reads 33, which is directly inside that same red oversold zone that has preceded every major expansion cycle on record.

The reason why the RSI indicator is now showing oversold is that the XRP price has spent so long moving sideways and grinding lower in sentiment that many holders have become worn down by time more than by the price downtrend itself. But according to the analyst, the oversold level means that the downward momentum is now completely dead.

The Psychological Trap

The most interesting part of the post may be the psychological angle behind it. Cryptollica described XRP as an asset that wears holders down through delay. This is unlike altcoins like Solana and Dogecoin, which break investor conviction through sudden price drops. XRP, on the other hand, plays out its corrections through long periods of flat, draining price action that make conviction harder to maintain.

According to the analyst, there are two types of XRP investors: those who will endure the torture of time to capture the asymmetric expansion, and those who will be exhausted by the waiting and surrender their positions because of the sideways action.

Interestingly, the analyst also pointed to how the altcoin is currently trading above a rising green support line that stretches back to 2014 and has acted as a catch zone across different bear markets. Since 2014, this has been the macro bedrock that has caught every single devastating crash (early 2017, 2020 Covid, and 2022 bear).  

If past cycles are anything to go by, the token could continue forming higher lows on the 10-day timeframe, which would translate to a gradual climb into higher price ranges over the coming weeks and months. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.37.

Daily Transaction Count On Ethereum Climbs

Ethereum’s price action is moving in tandem with the network performance, raising speculation whether ETH is gathering momentum underneath for a potential rally. While the price of Ethereum is currently breaking key resistance points, the network is reaching levels not seen in months.

In an X post, CW, a data analyst on CryptoQuant and investor, has published that activity on the Ethereum network is spiking at a notable pace. According to the analyst, daily transaction counts on the network are increasing exponentially, which points to a sharp rise in user engagement.

Furthermore, this surge in daily transaction count implies that more participants are interacting with decentralized applications, transfers, and on-chain services. All of these crucial factors reflect renewed demand and growing utility across the broader ecosystem, which could translate into sustained market momentum.

Although the price of ETH has fallen this year, activity across the leading network has remained at an all-time high level. At this point, CW claims that the rising daily transaction count is not a signal of a bear market. The price of Ethereum may have dropped, but some investors are displaying robust resilience under the surface, reinforcing the network growth as the trend continues.

ETH’s Price Is Moving Closer To Short-Term Realized Price

In terms of price action, Ethereum continues to trade within a short-term range, with the altcoin currently valued around $2,150. After a brief analysis, Darkfost, another author at CryptoQuant and market expert, announced that the price is in striking distance from the average realized price, which presently sits at the $2,300 level.

This level typically serves as a structural and psychological barrier that separates profit from loss for a significant portion of the market. ETH nearing this level signals a critical inflection point. By applying a standard deviation, the model allows projecting a high average price currently estimated at the $5,300 mark and a low at $1,150. 

Thus, Darkfost highlighted that Ethereum is positioned in the middle of this realized price zone, suggesting that the best strategy for those looking to take a medium to long-term exposure is to wait out the market. Given the current market conditions, this strategy proves to be valid. In this market structure, the realized price, which acts as resistance, is also expected to serve as a break-even exit level for some investors.

At the time of writing, the price of ETH was trading at $2,117, declining by over 2% over the last 24 hours. Its trading volume is moving in alignment with price action, recording a more than 7% decrease over the past day.

The bank recently received an official NYSE listing notice for its fund, MSBT — a step that analysts say typically signals a debut is near.

Wall Street’s Deepening Embrace

That development arrives alongside fresh data from Charles Schwab showing Bitcoin’s price swings have dropped sharply over the past four years.

According to the firm’s analysis, Bitcoin’s historical volatility hit 42% in 2025 — roughly half what it recorded in 2021. For context, Tesla’s historical volatility came in at 63% that same year.

Nvidia’s was 50%. Both exceeded Bitcoin’s. Measures of daily price movement told a similar story, with Bitcoin tracking closer to major equities than the volatile fringe asset it once resembled.

Schwab concluded the shift reflects Bitcoin’s deeper integration into mainstream finance, now trading on major exchanges worldwide through regulated products and ETF wrappers. The report described Bitcoin’s volatility as having “calmed down” as it matured.

Still, calm is relative. Bitcoin dropped as much as 30% in 2025, with losses carrying into early 2026. Over a three-year stretch, the asset fell 50% from peak to trough.

Those numbers are significant by almost any measure — but not unique. Tesla’s worst drawdown over the same period hit 54%. Nvidia fell 37% at its low point. The data suggests high-growth technology stocks can swing just as hard, or harder, than Bitcoin on a bad run.

The Long View Tells A Different Story

Zoom out further and Bitcoin’s profile grows more extreme. During the 2022 market downturn, Bitcoin fell 77% from its peak. Tesla dropped 74%. Nvidia lost 66%. The losses were steep across the board, but Bitcoin’s were steeper.

Schwab also put Bitcoin up against commodities. Silver futures often moved more erratically on a day-to-day basis, despite recording smaller overall declines.

Gold, by contrast, posted steadier gains at lower volatility — a clear reminder that Bitcoin, whatever its trajectory, still operates in a different risk class from traditional safe-haven assets.

Within crypto markets, Bitcoin’s relative stability has grown more noticeable. Ethereum continues to trade with higher volatility and deeper drawdowns, and the gap between the two assets has widened since 2021.

The Schwab report lands as Bitcoin increasingly gets measured against blue-chip equities rather than speculative assets. Whether that framing sticks may depend on how the asset behaves through the next major market stress test — a question the data cannot yet answer.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitmine Ethereum Holdings Hit 4.66 Million ETH

In a March 23 press release, Bitmine announced that its Ethereum holdings have risen to exactly 4,660,903 ETH following its latest purchase. The digital asset treasury acquired an additional 65,341 ETH, valued at above $138 million, in the past week. Notably, Bitmine has been on a major accumulation spree throughout March, consistently buying large amounts of ETH worth millions of dollars. This latest purchase marks its third consecutive weekly buy this month. 

Between late February and early March, the company bought 51,000 ETH at an average price of $1,976 per coin. Around March 9, it added another 60,976 ETH at $1,965 per token. By mid-March, Bitmine’s holdings had risen to 4,595,562 ETH after acquiring 60,999 ETH the same week. Following this, the company executed its most recent purchase at roughly $2,072 per ETH. 

After acquiring more Ethereum, Bitmine’s total cryptocurrency and cash holdings have increased to approximately $11 billion, with cash reserves accounting for $1.1 billion of this total. The company remains the largest ETH treasury in the world, led by its founder, Tom Lee, and current CEO, Chi Tsang. 

Bitmine currently holds 3.6% of Ethereum’s total circulating supply, which is over 120.6 million. At the pace and scale of its aggressive accumulation strategy, the treasury company has shown clear intent to expand its stake to 5% of ETH’s supply, a milestone that could propel its holdings to roughly 6 million ETH.

Notably, Bitmine continues to purchase Ethereum despite US-Iran war tensions and broader market decline influencing ETH’s price performance. The company appears to be leveraging the market weakness to increase its holdings at relatively lower prices, underscoring its confidence in Ethereum’s long-term recovery potential and sustained growth trajectory.

Lee has echoed similar bullish sentiments, publicly stating that the crypto winter is finally nearing its end. The Bitmine CEO has maintained a consistently optimistic outlook on Ethereum, with his most ambitious projection suggesting that the cryptocurrency could hit $250,000. He attributed this potential surge to a full-scale tokenization supercycle, in which Ethereum becomes a core infrastructure layer for Wall Street. 

Bitmine’s Bitcoin Holdings

In addition to Ethereum, Bitmine has also been accumulating Bitcoin. In its press release, the company revealed that its Bitcoin stash has now increased to 196 BTC, adding just one coin to the 195 BTC it had held since early March.

Unlike its large weekly ETH purchases, Bitmine’s Bitcoin holdings have seen only minimal changes, fluctuating slightly as the treasury company adds about one to three BTC regularly.

Discussion regarding whether BlackRock is preparing to move into XRP has picked up again, but the real reason is not coming from filings or official announcements. It is coming from recent comments on how the investment firm is talking about the next phase of crypto ETFs and the criteria it is watching closely.

BlackRock’s ETF Strategy

BlackRock was among the earliest major institutions to push into crypto-based spot ETFs, setting the pace with the launch of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). IBIT quickly became the most traded spot Bitcoin ETP, with assets surpassing $100 billion by early 2026. 

The firm has since expanded that strategy beyond Bitcoin. Its spot Ethereum ETF followed, and more recently, the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB) began trading on Nasdaq on March 12, 2026.

The leading investment manager has yet to enter into XRP-based spot ETFs, though this hasn’t stopped XRP investors from dissecting every signal coming from its leadership. The most recent window into BlackRock’s thinking on a possible XRP ETF came from Robert Mitchnick, Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock, during an appearance on CNBC’s Crypto World. 

In a recent interview on CNBC Crypto World, BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets Robert Mitchnick made it clear that the firm is not rushing into new crypto ETFs, but it is actively evaluating them. 

He explained that Bitcoin and Ethereum are where “overwhelmingly, the interest” is but added that there are pockets of interest in other digital assets. He went further to state that BlackRock continues to assess these assets as maturity, liquidity, scale and use cases develop, while maintaining a very discerning approach to what qualifies for an iShares ETF.

Does XRP Fit The iShares ETF Template?

XRP already operates at a level that aligns with the criteria Mitchnick outlined. It has deep liquidity across global markets, a large market cap, and a clear use case tied to payments, settlement, and now tokenized assets.

BlackRock has not yet signaled that the altcoin meets the bar required for its iShares ETF lineup, which explains the absence of a filing so far. However, XRP already ticks the box for other investment companies, as there are XRP-based spot ETFs in the US from investment firms such as Canary, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and 21Shares. 

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg expects BlackRock could file a Spot XRP ETF by late 2026 or 2027. According to him, XRP ETF assets would need to reach above $3 billion in net inflow before the commercial case is strong enough for BlackRock to act. This is about three times the current level. 

Volatility In XRP Plunges To Its Lowest Point

After a brief rebound on Wednesday, market conditions around XRP seem to have entered an unusually calm phase as the price displays signs of stability. The Realized Volatility on Binance has been steadily dropping and has recently reached its lowest level of 2026.

While on-chain data is flashing at reduced volatility, Xaif Crypto, a technical analyst and investor, has declared the trend a calm before the storm rather than a bearish signal. With both buyers and sellers exhibiting less aggressive positioning, the decrease in price swings points to a period of less uncertainty.

Looking at the chart on the 30-Day time frame, the realized volatility is positioned at 0.5266, marking a multi-month low. Volatility Z-Score is at -0.9048, sitting well below the historical average, while price is holding steady at the $1.43 level. 

When volatility compresses this hard, it implies that the market is coiling. At the same time, supply and demand have reached have reached have reached equilibrium, with panic and euphoria lacking among investors across the market. The chart is signaling a clear path for XRP based on historical patterns.

In the current market structure, every significant increase or decrease in XRP was preceded by a similar time frame. For now, the altcoin is set to experience a period of a tightening range, low volume, and silent charts before the spring takes place without any warning signs.

As a result of this setup, Xaif Crypto stated that the question is not whether a move is coming, but rather, if investors are positioned before the impending move occurs. At this point, the expert urges investors to closely watch the Volatility Z-Score because the metric is key to determining the upcoming move.

Once the metric moves back into positive territory, this will serve as the signal that momentum is returning to the market and the next move is close. XRP at $1.43 may look like things are slow, but Xaif Crypto predicts that the altcoin won’t remain in the range for long.

Activity On The XRP Ledger Explodes

While volatility has reduced to the lowest level this year, activity on the XRP Ledger has witnessed explosive growth. Arthur stated that transaction volumes across the Ledger are spiking, hitting nearly 4 million in a single day. As more users interact with transfers, payments, and decentralized apps, the spike in on-chain activity marks the beginning of sustained growth.

According to the expert, this is the highest level seen since the rally in late 2024 following the US election. With the market showing signs of life, this surge suggests that on-chain usage is clearly accelerating again, alongside rising utility and adoption turning up on the Ledger.

XRP Ledger’s Role In SWIFT’s Plan For On-Chain Transactions

In an X post, Pumpius alleged that SWIFT is quietly whitelabeling the XRP Ledger front-end while pretending that the network is their innovation. He made this comment in response to news that SWIFT plans to launch 24/7 cross-border payments using blockchain technology in partnership with over 25 major banks. 

Pumpius further alleged that SWIFT has been running pilots with Ripple partners, bridging ISO 20022, and that now it is clear what they are trying to achieve. He declared that the old financial guard is being forced to adopt what they spent years fighting. The pundit added that SWIFT is adopting the Ledger because XRP has always been the neutral bridge asset they could never build themselves. 

However, it is worth noting that SWIFT has announced it is developing its distributed ledger in partnership with ConsenSys to enable 24/7 cross-border payments. SWIFT is also developing the ledger in partnership with over 30 financial institutions, which will use it. So far, there hasn’t been any mention of SWIFT using the Ledger as Pumpius claims.  

However, crypto pundit Archie pointed out that some of these banks that SWIFT has partnered with are also Ripple’s partners, a development he said is the ultimate bull signal for holders. The pundit suggested that these banks could still integrate in one way or another, even as they move to create their own distributed ledger. 

BIS Highlights XRP’s Dominance Among Top 5 Cryptos 

Archie drew attention to the Bank for International Settlements post, which highlighted XRP as one of the major cryptocurrencies investors were seeking exposure to. The pundit again described this as the ultimate bull signal. The BIS released its updated Basel III monitoring dashboard and identified the altcoin as one of the top 5 cryptocurrencies for which underlying banks are reporting exposures. 

XRP is notably mentioned alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Archie noted that banks worldwide are now classifying and disclosing their holdings under the global regulatory framework. He added that traditional finance (TradFi) is no longer fighting crypto but is instead measuring and preparing for its adoption. Based on this, he declared that the floodgates are opening and that the original bridge asset, which is XRP, is already inside the system. 

At the time of writing, the altcoin’s price is trading at around $1.40, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Crypto Down Payment Options For Fannie Mortgages

On Thursday, Better Home & Finance and Coinbase announced a joint mortgage product that lets prospective buyers pledge crypto as collateral for the down payment on a Fannie Mae‑backed loan rather than selling their digital assets to generate cash. 

The offering is structured so the pledged holdings — such as Bitcoin (BTC) or Circle’s USDC stablecoin held in a Coinbase account — secure a separate loan to fund the down payment; the home mortgage itself remains a conventional Fannie‑backed loan.

Better Home & Finance’s founder and CEO, Vishal Garg, framed the partnership as a way to broaden access to homeownership: 

Better was founded to make homeownership more accessible for all Americans, and this partnership with Coinbase introduces a new pathway to realizing the American Dream for the 52 million Americans who own digital assets.  

Coinbase, in its announcement, described the product as the first time an “AI‑native” mortgage lender has combined secured digital‑asset loans with the platform of a major crypto exchange to bridge digital wealth and traditional real‑estate finance.

Unaffected By Bitcoin Price Swings

Coinbase representatives emphasized that, once active, the mortgage terms and interest rates will function like a standard home loan and will not be affected by fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price. 

Coinbase also noted its ongoing engagement with policymakers. “We maintain an active, bipartisan dialogue with Washington,” said a company representative, adding that the product aims to expand homeownership opportunities for Americans whose wealth is tied up in digital assets rather than traditional bank accounts.

At the time of writing, the crypto exchange’s stock, which trades under the symbol COIN, is worth $176 a share. This extends the downturn, which has seen the price decline from $200, the opening price at the start of this week’s trade. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bernstein Confirms Bitcoin Price Bottom And Next Target

In a Tuesday note to clients, Bernstein analysts doubled down on their year-end price target of $150,000 for Bitcoin. Their reiteration of this bullish outlook comes as the world’s largest cryptocurrency faces major headwinds in its ongoing bear market.

Recently, the Bitcoin price dropped below $70,000 once again amid increased geopolitical uncertainty and state-level selling pressure. Market volatility resurfaced after President Donald Trump pushed to end the US-Iran war within weeks, and the Bhutan government sold more than 519 BTC for approximately $36.7 million.

Despite these bearish developments pushing the price lower, Bernstein analysts believe that Bitcoin’s move from here on out could be a slow but steady recovery, followed by a rebound toward a new all-time high. This isn’t the first time they have made such a prediction. Earlier in January, they stated that BTC had hit a price floor at $80,000 and might be on its way to a $150,000 target. 

Importantly, the analysts confirmed again in their recent note that the Bitcoin price has officially reached its market bottom this cycle. This comes after the cryptocurrency plunged from $90,000 to $60,000 in early February, marking its lowest level since its cycle top last year. This price floor is also approximately 47% below the cryptocurrency’s all-time high levels. 

Major factors had fueled this crash, including the hawkish FED Chair nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump in January 2026, which triggered a risk-off sell-off in the crypto market. Moreover, at the time, the market had recorded massive outflows in Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) worth billions of dollars. Heightened tensions in the Middle East, as well as the oil shock, had also fueled BTC’s decline to this claimed $60,000 price bottom. 

Why They Believe BTC Could Hit $150,000 This Year    

Three major bullish catalysts are driving Bernstein’s optimistic Bitcoin prediction this cycle. The first is the continuous corporate accumulation by the business intelligence company and BTC treasury Strategy (MSTR). Notably, Strategy has continued to buy Bitcoin despite its ongoing volatility and declining price action. The firm now holds 3.6% of Bitcoin’s total supply, valued at roughly $53.5 billion, after its latest purchase of 1,031 BTC for $76.6 million this March. 

Another major reason Bernstein believes BTC could hit a new ATH this year is attributed to its ETF. Analysts at the firm suggest that ETF inflows could remain strong despite market volatility, thereby continuing to increase demand for BTC. Over the past week, Bitcoin ETFs have already attracted significant inflows, driven largely by wealth managers, pension funds, sovereign entities, and other major institutional investors. 

The final reason mentioned is the strong conviction of long-term BTC holders. Notably, 60% of Bitcoin’s total supply has been held by inactive wallets for more than 1 year. This behavior reflects long-term holding as investors continue to see the cryptocurrency as a strategic allocation and a store of value. 

The report opens with an unusually direct framing. “The central question is no longer” whether bitcoin merits consideration, Fidelity says. Instead, it asks: “What is your current bitcoin allocation, and why?” For the firm’s research team, zero exposure may still be valid, but it now requires a “well-informed rationale.”

Tiny Bitcoin Exposure, Big Portfolio Impact

That argument rests first on bitcoin’s historical numbers. Fidelity says bitcoin has been the top-performing asset in 11 of the past 15 years and, over multiple time horizons, has posted the highest returns as well as the highest risk-adjusted returns among the assets it examined. The report acknowledges the familiar objection, bitcoin’s volatility remains the highest in the group, but argues that Sharpe and Sortino ratios still compare favorably, while bonds have looked particularly weak on both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms.