In a report released this Wednesday, Fidelity Digital Assets in collaboration with Lightning payment provider Voltage released a report on the state of the Lightning Network.

The report details the many ways in which the Lightning Network has grown since its launch in 2018.

It also illustrates how more businesses have begun incorporating Lightning in 2024 than any year prior, that larger channels are forming on the network and that more Lightning nodes are coming online.

Some key stats from the piece include the following:

• Total Lightning capacity denominated in U.S. dollars has increased by 2,767% since 2020
• Its bitcoin-denominated capacity has grown by 384% in the same period
• Currently, almost all payments over Lightning below 1,000,000 sats processed in less than 1.1 seconds

While these stats made me optimistic, it was other information in the report that really resonated with me and made me rethink how I view Bitcoin and Lightning.

Below were top three takeaways from the report:

• Lightning payments are gaining traction on Nostr (the world’s largest bitcoin circular economy), as Nostr users have sent over 3.6 million individual zaps in the last six months
• Projects like ARK, another Bitcoin Layer 2 protocol, illustrate that Lightning has use cases beyond just peer-to-peer channels (ARK allows users to share virtual UTXOs (vUTXOs) with a larger group instead of on a one-to-one basis) can can be built upon in ways many didn’t initially anticipate
• The “HODL” mentality is one the things still slowing Lightning adoption; in other words, if Bitcoin enthusiasts don’t spend their bitcoin, Lightning growth may stagnate, which could hurt Bitcoin’s value proposition

So, as we’re here at the beginning of 2025, a year that many think will be big for Lightning, I can’t help but be optimistic to see what sort of traction Lightning gains in the next 10 months.

It’s high time bitcoin is used more as a medium of exchange — the way Satoshi intended for it to be.

This is not just another crypto or Bitcoin event — it will be a focused, high-impact gathering that aims to educate, empower, and connect the French-speaking Bitcoin community like never before.

With over 400 in-person attendees expected and a digital reach exceeding 50,000 people via social media platforms such as Facebook, X, Youtube, and TikTok, this conference represents a crucial milestone in Bitcoin adoption across French-speaking Africa.

But why is this event French-only and Bitcoin-only? And why is hosting it in Douala, Cameroon, so significant? Let’s explore.

The Franc CFA: A Legacy of Economic Dependence

To understand why Bitcoin adoption is gaining traction in French-speaking Africa, one must first understand the controversial Franc CFA — a colonial-era currency used by 14 African nations and controlled by the French Treasury.

For decades, this system has hindered economic sovereignty, imposed high inflation rates, and restricted monetary policy independence for millions of people.

Unlike Africans living in English-speaking Africa countries, who often enjoy greater monetary autonomy, Africans in French-speaking African nations remain tethered to a financial system that prioritizes stability for France over the economic growth of Africa.

This is where Bitcoin comes in.

Bitcoin offers an alternative: an open, decentralized, and inflation- and censorship-resistant financial system. It empowers individuals to take control of their wealth without having to rely on centralized institutions or foreign influence.

Conference Bitcoin Afrique is dedicated to showcasing how Bitcoin can help break these economic chains.

Why a French-only Bitcoin Conference?

Despite the growing Bitcoin adoption worldwide, French-speaking Africa remains underserved when it comes to Bitcoin conferences.

Most major Bitcoin conferences, educational resources, and businesses are heavily English-centric, leaving millions of French-speaking Africans behind in the global Bitcoin movement.

By making Conference Bitcoin Afrique a French-only conference, we are dismantling the language barrier that has long prevented access to Bitcoin education and networking opportunities. This is not just a regional event—it is a movement to establish French-speaking Africa as a major force in the global Bitcoin economy.

For international businesses and Bitcoin advocates, this is a unique opportunity to engage with an untapped market, create localized solutions, and build relationships with grassroots Bitcoiners driving adoption on the ground.

Why Bitcoin-Only?

Unlike many crypto conferences that mix Bitcoin with thousands of altcoins and blockchain projects, Conference Bitcoin Afrique is Bitcoin-only. Here’s why:

• Bitcoin is the only truly decentralized and censorship-resistant digital asset.
• It has the strongest network security and adoption globally.
• It is the best tool for financial sovereignty in Africa.
• It aligns with long-term wealth preservation, not speculation.

The “crypto” narrative in Africa has often been tainted by scams, Ponzi schemes, and unreliable tokens. Many people have lost money chasing hype, and we believe it’s time to refocus on Bitcoin’s core mission: financial freedom and economic empowerment.

At Conference Bitcoin Afrique, attendees won’t be bombarded with questionable “investment opportunities” or flashy tech gimmicks. Instead, they will gain real insights, practical tools, and networking opportunities that support the real-world adoption of Bitcoin.

It’s worth noting that this is not the first Bitcoin-only conference in the region. In fact, we draw inspiration from several pioneering events:

• Dakar Bitcoin Days in Senegal was the very first Bitcoin conference held in French on the continent, setting a precedent for accessible, localized Bitcoin education.
• Bitcoin Mastermind in Benin, organized by Loic Kassamotto and Alphons Mehoume, and the efforts of Nourou with two editions of Dakar Bitcoin Days have all laid the groundwork for what we aim to build.
• The African Bitcoin Conference also deserves to be mentioned for its significant contributions as an inspiration and benchmark.

With CBA, we are attempting to create a larger Bitcoin educational platform for the region so that we can make our collective voice louder.

Our long-term vision is to bring Conference Bitcoin Afrique to different French-speaking countries in subsequent editions, further expanding the reach and impact of Bitcoin education across Africa.

Why Douala, Cameroon?

Douala is the economic capital of Cameroon, a major trade hub, and one of the most Bitcoin-active cities in the region.

Hosting Conference Bitcoin Afrique in Akwa, the city’s central business district, is strategic for several reasons:

• Accessibility: Douala is well-connected to other African cities and international locations.
• Growing Bitcoin Community: The city has a thriving Bitcoin scene with active P2P trading, businesses accepting Bitcoin, and grassroots education initiatives.
• Strategic Location: Cameroon is at the heart of French-speaking Africa, making it an ideal meeting point for attendees from West and Central Africa.

For global Bitcoin advocates, this is a unique chance to experience firsthand how Bitcoin is transforming everyday life in French-speaking Africa.

Get Involved

Bitcoiners, businesses, and global stakeholders can support this initiative by purchasing tickets or sponsoring the event.

Information about both is available via the conference’s website.

Conclusion: A Call to Action

Conference Bitcoin Afrique is more than just an event — it is a movement. And it aims to liberate French-speaking Africa from financial colonialism, to educate communities on the power of Bitcoin, and to connect international Bitcoiners with a rapidly growing market.

The time to act is now. Join us in Douala from April 25th to 27th, 2025, and be part of history.

This is a guest post by Nzonda Fotsing. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Pool mining was created to address and solve this issue. Let’s take a single miner, with a small but considerable mining operation. Out of the 52560 yearly blocks, he’s expected to find one, since he has 1/52560th of all the hashrate of the network. In other words, he’s expected to find one block every 12 months. But his electricity bill comes due every 4 weeks, and if he was to wait for a whole year paying bills before getting some revenue through the door, he’d go bankrupt. Given this discrepancy between its ongoing costs and its revenues, an idea comes to his mind. He sets out to find 499 other people with a similar sized operation, and they strike a deal. Instead of everyone mining on their own, the miner proposes to the others that they all mine collectively as if they are part of the same entity, splitting the mining rewards according to each miner’s work every time someone finds a block. If every miner has 1/52560th of all the hashrate of the network, the 500 miners collectively are expected to find a block approximately two times per week. With a pool mining approach, every miner guarantees that all the effort and hard work they put in will be rewarded much more frequently. This way everyone gets to pay their bills every month, and by the end of the year, they have all effectively managed to avoid bankruptcy. Nevertheless, there are still sources of variance within those same payouts.

Pool mining makes sure miners get paid much more frequently compared to solo mining. However, it doesn't guarantee predictable payouts based on the hashing power that each miner has. This problem is commonly known as the pool’s luck risk. Let´s go back to the previous example. 500 miners with 1/52560th of the total hashrate of the network each are expected to find 500 blocks in a year. Nevertheless, they may find 480. Or 497. Or 520. There is no assurance that the pool will mine exactly 500 blocks in a year. A Pool’s luck is calculated by dividing the number of blocks found by the number of blocks that was expected to be found based on the total hashrate of the pool. If a pool mines 480 blocks when they were expected to mine 500, the pool’s luck was 95%. Pool luck can cause significant fluctuations in earnings over short periods. However, luck tends to even out over time, and payouts will eventually align with the expected distribution based on the pool's hash rate. Two additional factors contribute to the overall variance in miners' payment rewards, with the first factor being more significant than the second. The first is transaction fees. These tend to vary considerably as witnessed in the last few years. Transactions fees from the blocks that were mined right after the last halving represented more than 50% of the total block reward for the first time in Bitcoin’s history. As of the writing date of this article, (block height 883208), there were several non-full blocks mined in the past week, since the mempool cleared for several occasions during these past days. Quite a jump in such a short amount of time. The second factor is related to the variance associated with the time between blocks found by the network. When a block is found right after another, there is less time for transactions to build up in the mempool, which leads to lower transaction fees in that block. Conversely, if a more extended period elapses between blocks, more transactions will be broadcast, driving up transaction fees in the process.

Uncertainty is painful. Especially where there is substantial capital at risk. Thus, most miners find value in having more predictable, stable and less volatile payouts to recoup the significant amount of capital deployed. This is where a Full Pay Per Share payout scheme paid by pools comes into play. FPPS works as a traditional insurance product. A pure risk transfer. Regardless of how many blocks the miners of the pool collectively find and what the transaction fees paid on them are, miners get paid by the pool based on the expected value of their hashing power. The pool assumes all that risk. The predictability that FPPS provides to miners is unrivaled by any other method. Hence, no one should be surprised to learn that FPPS is pretty much the standard nowadays when it comes to pool payouts, although not without a significant cost.

FPPS is not a free lunch. To withstand any bad luck period and all the risks associated with a FPPS payout scheme, pools need to have big fat pockets. These high capital requirements cost money. And pools are not charitable organizations. These high costs end up being paid by miners through higher pool fees. Like previously mentioned, miners need to keep in mind the fact that an FPPS payout scheme works as an insurance policy. And insurance policies rely on counterparties. And sometimes, counterparties fail to honor their commitments when they are most needed, as witnessed back in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The miner must trust that the pool will fulfill their insurance contract obligations. Sure, if the pool is very big in size, that risk is very small indeed. Pools can also develop ways to offload this risk from their operations. But isn’t Bitcoin all about minimizing trust, counter-party risk and eliminating it if possible? Looks like the Bitcoin ethos hasn't arrived yet at the pool mining side of the protocol.

Furthermore, any miner that receives FPPS rewards for their work must necessarily forfeit any revenue related to transaction fee spikes. The FPPS payout formula determines miner rewards by analyzing transaction fees from the previous n blocks and calculating an “expected value” for transaction fees. The pool then uses this calculation to decide how much to pay miners for the transaction fee portion of their shares. As a result, when transaction fees surge, the payout is made according to what happened in the past, where there is no transaction fees spike whatsoever. No need to be a PhD in mathematics to understand that all those rewards end up in the pool’s pockets rather than the miners’ in this scenario. Moreover, even if there was a recent spike in transactions, pools cannot factor this into payout calculations. The probability of such a spike not being an outlier is almost negligible. In other words, pools have no guarantee that the fee spikes will be consistent and frequent in the future. Therefore, they cannot include it in miner payouts without risking bankruptcy.

The unsustainability of the FPPS payout scheme

Having a closer look at how the FPPS payout scheme is built, we can easily see that it is like the modern pension systems of many governments, unsustainable by design. FPPS as it stands today, will collapse under its own weight soon. As time goes by, transaction fees will represent a bigger percentage of the total payout to miners. This dynamic, alongside their inherent variability, will lead to a significant increase of the total payout variance, thus increasing the insurance costs of FPPS pools to infinity. In other words, as the Coinbase reward keeps halving, the variance of the rewards in the block will increase significantly. If the variance increases, so does the associated risk of providing this insurance product for miners. Thus, premiums for the insured will have to increase as well. This means that FFPS pools will be taking additional risk when compromising themselves to a fixed payment to miners. With more risks comes higher capital costs. The extent to which pool fees will have to rise for pools to continue providing a FPPS insurance product remains to be seen. Only insurance actuaries can determine the precise amount. One thing we already know for sure. It won’t be cheap, because it already isn’t.

A much higher pool fee for stable predictable payouts offered by FPPS will make a PPLNS method reward method much more attractive for any miners that are looking to maximize their profitability, as the previously described dynamic of the changing composition of blocks is played out. Under this scheme, miners are paid once a block is found by the pool. When a block is found, the pool assesses how many valid shares each miner contributed during a period comprised of the last N blocks found by the pool and distributes payouts accordingly. This time window is commonly referred to as the PPLNS window. The biggest setback with this payment method is of course the risk associated with the pool’s luck being under 100% and the risk that there might be periods when the pool doesn’t find any block and as a result, miners don’t get paid. However, a pool with only 1% of the hash rate has only a 0.0042% chance of not finding a block within a week, while the odds of the pool’s luck being lower than 90% in a year are approximately 1.09%.

Will there be a market soon for FPPS pool services at a high enough price that compensates the pool for all the variance associated with the total block rewards? No one can know for sure. One thing we know. Pool fees will have to be enormous. The revenue that miners will have to forfeit will just be too big to be worth it to get rid of the risk associated with not getting paid consistently in a timely manner. And as other more mature players enter the bitcoin mining industry, such as energy companies, one should expect other risk management tools to be readily available in the market for miners to hedge all types of risks. New innovative pool payment schemes will probably surface as these instruments become more available to everyone.

Miners' revenue and profitability will be significantly impacted by the dynamics described in this article. Exploring alternative pool payment schemes and risk hedging strategies will be required for any miner that looks to maximize the profitability of their operation. The FPPS payout method might still be helpful for miners as of today. But as was previously explained, FPPS will soon be buried in bitcoin’s history.

This is a guest post by Francisco Quadrio Monteiro. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Don’t take these as hard predictions, ignore the coating of hyperbole I can’t stop myself from adding everywhere, and note these don’t come with dates. I’m going to run through a list of “watershed moments” or macro-scale shifts in things that I think are practically guaranteed to happen or begin in the next decade.

— A Visit To The US Supreme Court —

Bitcoin creates an inherent contradiction within the current regulatory and legal framework, at least in the US and everywhere the US effectively dictates things, relating to how Bitcoin itself inherently works and two major themes in regulations and law.

• KYC/AML Laws: These exist to ensure that financial institutions know the individuals they are dealing with for the purposes of preventing criminal operations, money laundering, or terrorist financing occurs through the use of their services. This requires incredibly invasive information collection, tracking, and communication of said information between different institutions. It requires throwing privacy out the window. Or does it?
• Financial Privacy Laws: The reason things like KYC/AML exist in a country like the United States with the 4th Amendment to our Constitution is because of things like the Right to Financial Privacy Act. There are laws that restrict the situations and conditions under which the government can obtain financial records on its citizens. These laws were implemented after a Supreme Court case challenging KYC/AML law (ironically called the Bank Secrecy Act) held that financial records are the property of the institution and not customer.

See the contradiction? All of this is based on the notion that the record of financial activity is privately held in privileged silos not visible to the general public. That the government access doesn’t equate to the public’s access. That is not how Bitcoin works. Everything is right there on the blockchain for everyone to see. So while financial institutions are required to enforce KYC/AML laws and identify their customers, are they also not required to protect the privacy of their customers financial activity short a legal order to divulge it?

We’re at the point where privacy tools are actually starting to make real developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem, and we’re already starting to see behavior indicating a trend of this being marked as “bad behavior” by Bitcoin exchanges that leads to account scrutiny(and possible closure and/or seizure down the line) in response to use of privacy tools. Now, I don’t see anything in the near future in the United States smashing down all KYC/AML laws in the land, but I do see an incredibly strong argument to make against this type of reaction by exchanges and institutions to their customers using privacy tools.

The argument is this simple: they have a right to protect their privacy from the point of view of the general public at large. This system doesn’t keep all the records private by default, only revealing selectively to authority. Everything is in the open and publicly verified, by architectural requirement. So if I have a Constitutional right to privacy in the old model, do I not have one in this new model?

Now again: this is in no way a strong enough basis to smash down all KYC/AML and requirements to identify customers. But I do think this is a strong enough basis to potentially cement by Supreme Court ruling that businesses are not allowed to censor or target customers simply on the basis of using privacy preserving tools in activities not related to those businesses. If things continue in the direction they seem to be going, I think this type of legal challenge to such practices is inevitable. How will it turn out if I am right? I guess we’ll find out if I am right.

— Inevitable Mining Landscape Evolution —

Mining is probably the easiest thing to point at besides the price to really demonstrate to a normal person how far Bitcoin has come in the last decade. Consumer desktops to data centers in a decade. That change will continue to happen at a rapid pace, and part of the next shift is already underway. Vertical integration. Things went from desktop CPUs, to GPUs, to special ASICs. But those ASICs were still something easily accessible to retail consumers, small group buyers, smaller professional operations. It was still easy to get efficient and current hardware at different scales (though different prices depending on your scale).

That is going to change, and the starting signs of it are already here. Mining is going to become less and less accessible profitably to the retail and smaller market (ignoring professional hosting arrangements) participants as companies start battening down the hatches. This market is still incredibly volatile, and miners all the way from producers to equipment operators have very large capital investments that can be very risky during market downswings. Things tend to get into a frenzy when the market swings up, and go very badly for unprepared people on the swing down. This time around things are going to get serious in terms of minimizing and managing risk.

Bitmain’s finances becoming public during their IPO attempt in Hong Kong showed how they took massive profits and turned right around and lost them continuing to take massive risks that just happened to work out in a bull market. It hit them very hard, and the HKEX looking at that general pattern due to overall market volatility playing out with all the manufacturers attempting IPOs to differing degrees denied all of them. The overall market these companies compete in was deemed too risky for listing a business that directly exposed on the HKEX. This cuts them off from the capital necessary to continue expansion as Bitcoin grows by orders of magnitude. That is very bad.

The response from Bitmain in terms of adapting (ignoring the recent “coup” attempt internally) has been to make moves to restructure their business to adapt to this harsh lesson. They have numerous farms they operate themselves in China to both self-operate mining equipment and host other peoples’. These types of operations have expanded internationally to Texas and Washington state in the US and Quebec in Canada. The strategic value in operating these farms is creating predictable power costs, and having the dual option of deploying hardware you produce to mine yourself or sell capacity to other miners. Now if you put this together…they’ve positioned themselves to 1) make and sell the metaphorical shovel, 2) dig with it themselves, 3) sell the shovel to someone else and also try to sell them a place to dig. That’s exactly what Bitmain is doing with a new service.

Jihan has also established new financial services and tools Bitmain is offering to help customers hedge some of their risk by taking it on themselves, as well as other more granular arrangements in Bitmain’s favor. It’s unclear whether this specific strategy will stick given drama resulting from the internal struggle between Micree Zhan and Jihan Wu, but it shows an acknowledgement of and a strategy to deal with the risk inherent with this level of market volatility. This is absolutely necessary to survive in the long term in this sector of the ecosystem.

This is the direction this is going, with massive momentum behind it. Actors playing different roles in the mining sector will slowly start to try to sprawl out and handle every layer of the stack they can internally: Production | Research & Design | Hosting | Operation | Electricity Sourcing | Financial Risk Hedging | Lobbying. As economies of scale continue applying pressure to actors in the mining sector and trimming them down to the leanest and most efficient, they will start attempting to internally integrate as much of the entire stack to be able to control and hedge the financial risks.

A second order effect will result from this economy of scale effect playing out Darwinianly amongst all of the miners. Governments will start to creep in at a foundational layer and begin realizing they have influence to exert. To really get across my thinking here, I want to go back in the past for a second and look at some of the mining dynamics in China to my understanding from both “official” reporting and personal sources of mine. Mining exploded in China because of two factors: 1) there is surplus power in many places, 2) the finances of local governments being pretty rekt and lots of local governments being totally fine with mining because they can shave something off the top and see revenue. This dynamic might even be why we haven’t seen the Communist Party crack down on mining despite all the statements and hints to that end except in criminal cases such as power theft.

That dynamic is already playing out everywhere that mining operations are growing to scale. Step one: appease the local government. We’ve seen how things can get with the situation in Quebec with Hydro-Quebec attempting to block and auction power after seeing a huge increase in demand for electricity to mine Bitcoin. Numerous projects across the United States have been established in partnership or cooperation with the local government, in Texas, Washington, Georgia, etc. This is just how it works, you put boots on the ground and that most immediately local government at the very least is sinking their hooks in. Then the one above that can sink in. Then the one above that. The hierarchy of parasites.

We need to be very, VERY conscious of this dynamic. Unless you find Harry Potter’s wand and the magic spell that instantly whisks away every government in the whole world, they’re there and we have to deal with them. There’s only two real strategies to deal with this, and one isn’t really viable.

The non-viable strategy is attempt to take things completely off the grid and into the black market. That’s not happening. You are talking about hiding data centers, with the cumulative network energy consumption being on the scale of whole countries. Non option, and if you want to try and solve this with a POW change fork, good luck. You know where the door is.

The viable strategy is to simultaneously: 1) push at the most local levels for non-restrictive and non-draconian policies where these operations are located (and Bitcoin in general where you live) if you can while 2) pushing at the non-local levels in general for policies that leave sovereignty and power as localized as possible. If Bitcoiners and other interested groups do not stay vigilant and active in this area, then those initial local hooks will lead to State hooks which lead to Federal hooks from the national government of your country in the foundation of the mining sector: power availability. These hooks are undeniably already there in some places. If action at the social layer is not effective in dealing with this issue, then we fall down a very slippery slope:

• Eventual slide to national level regulation and direct hands poking around in how mining operations are run.
• If Bitcoin continues growing and expanding in value and market relevance exponentially, the situation works out to whichever nation has the cheapest energy reserves to burn through dominates mining.
• This could easily devolve into a super power like dynamic in terms of mining distribution, which if a stable (or “stable enough”) equilibrium, could wind up leading to a base layer in a much more centralized and restricted access state not conducive to Bitcoin’s full potential.

This aspect of the Bitcoin network/system is the weakest in terms of defensibility from real world “meatspace” threats. Ultimately if the population of a nation empowers its government to do so, they can show up and seize your mining equipment. It would have to be an amazingly resource strapped government or a very unique geographic area for that to be impractical. The only way to deal with this is socially.

And coercion is not the only mechanism for interfering at this layer of Bitcoin. Distorting incentives is another means. Chain Anchor was a protocol proposal out of MIT to effectively bribe miners into initially preferentially, and then exclusively mining KYCed transactions. The end goal was orphan non-compliant blocks. (This out of all citations, READ YOURSELF when you are done with this). These issues of economic incentive distortions can ultimately be resolved only through economic incentive corrections.

This is the “shift” I am most confident on in this piece. I would not call it short-term “OMG we’re fucked!” urgent, but this is not an issue Bitcoiners can afford to be complacent about.

— Neo-Switzerland —

I spoke above of Binks, and the technology possible to “port” subsets of Bitcoin’s properties to them, and the incentives to do so. It’s a jurisdictional arbitrage play with massive potential profits. But there is one interesting potential twist to how that could play out given it is the 21st century and all: cyberspace could itself arguably constitute a jurisdiction. Does anyone remember Darknet Markets? So there are two ways “Neo-Switzerland” could play out: an actual physical jurisdiction legalizing KYC-less or KYC-lite financial businesses and safe havening such operations, or an “extra-jurisdictional” (quotation marks because servers get hosted somewhere) dark net business.

Meatspace Neo-Switzerland

Let’s go through the possibility of a real world nation-state deciding to become a haven jurisdiction for KYC-less or KYC-lite binks. Well to start, Bitcoin is a borderless global currency/settlement network that anyone with internet access can interact with. So the potential customer base that can deposit and withdraw Bitcoin at one of these binks is anyone in the world with an internet connection that can get their hands on Bitcoin. That’s the potential capital inflow that could be attracted in the most insanely optimistic scenario. That’s what you can collect taxes on. Secondly, given a host jurisdiction, these binks can be legally incorporated and accountable entities. Even with no KYC cryptography offers a basis of both assertions of fraud, and refutations of these assertions, at least in terms of a foundation or initial filter from which to start legal disputes. These binks can offer anonymous accounts denominated in BTC, anonymous untraceable cybercash denominated in BTC, loans, escrow services, oracle services for complex smart contracts enforced by the Bink. All the financial services of the legacy world become accessible with a smartphone and either no KYC or so little it feels like 2013 again, and then some with a cherry on top.

This is a giant pile of potential profit for a jurisdiction to seize. And being a jurisdiction, an actual nation-state with a legal system, there is the potential to create enough trust to actually make this workable for international customers. Okay, so from a customers point of view how do you handle something going wrong between you and your bink? If you’re a citizen of that nation simple: you take legal recourse. If you aren’t a citizen? Well…taking legal action across international jurisdictions can be complicated to say the least. And expensive. But if we’re at the point where this bink is operating then we assume the government of this nation wants this to work and attract business right? So the government can account for this asymmetry between citizens bink customers and non-citizens bink customers and craft legislation easing the complexity of non-citizens dealing with disputes between them and their bink. And more importantly, the government can actually enforce this legislation evenly with regards to citizens versus non-citizens.

The other end of the stick is how do the other nations of the world react? The US in particular likes to tell the world how to run their affairs. Especially their financial affairs. How far can you really push things before the US drone-strikes your country into the ground? No one will know unless someone tries this.

That said, I think the type of jurisdiction where this could practically happen would be one of a very few unique profiles. Potentially somewhere such as North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, somewhere that is being heavily sanctioned and shut out from the global financial situation. Desperation is a powerful motivator. Or maybe a Spanish or Italian secession movement is successful, or France slow boils until we see a 21st century French Revolution. Big changes happen after big political upheaval. What if the King of Thailand decided to host KYC-less(or KYC-lite) binks? Thailand is already massively economically dependent on foreign tourism dollars. Why not foreign Bitcoin deposits? Tourism has had many negative consequences for the country…Bitcoin binking wouldn’t unless you thought you would be invaded by China or the US.

This is not something I’m saying is a very likely thing to occur in such a relatively short time period as the next decade, but I’m saying it’s absolutely not crazy to think it might.

Cyberspace Neo-Switzerland

Alright, let’s look at the “darknet, no known jurisdiction, totally pseudonymous” scenario. Things are the exact same as the previous scenario as far as deposits and customers, they can process BTC withdrawals and deposits for anyone in the world. But a bink that operates extra-legally cannot legally incorporate in any jurisdiction, or establish any legally accountable entity. That is a major difference in terms of trade offs versus a bink being hosted by a complicit jurisdiction. This is a much more difficult place to attempt bootstrapping a network effect as a bink, in terms of acceptance of your cybercash and deposits rather than direct BTC settlement. A bink’s network effect is rooted entirely on trust in the operator(s) of the bink. That is much easier to build as a legally incorporated and accountable entity of a known jurisdiction. The landscape your relationship with that bink takes place in is established crystal clearly. That is the opposite of how a darknet bink would work.

There would be no legal accountability for a darknet bink, no government to go to, no legal processes to take, nothing. You get the guarantees you can enforce purely with cryptography, and everything else is enforced through blind trust with no recourse. That’s it. This presents a major bootstrapping problem for this variety of bink. How do you get customers to trust you with their deposits when they have no recourse to take if you defraud them? This quandary in my opinion guarantees that this type of bink would never be able to grow to the size of one that had a legal identity in a safe haven jurisdiction.

A darknet bink would likely never be something used by mainstream users, they would be businesses patronized solely by users in very constrained circumstances. People engaged in risky illegal activity. Scammers. People who have been censored and completely walled out of the legacy financial system. I just don’t see normal people being willing to take the risk of depositing BTC with a bink against which they have no legal recourse, and which is associated only with pseudonyms. There is the potential of creating stronger guarantees than possible now through cryptography, but that starts getting into a strange area. Like I said above when talking about the possible technical developments in the next decade, there is potential for constructs that totally blur the line between service and protocol. If things work out well enough, maybe a darknet bink could make up for the difficulties in establishing trust by building stronger cryptographic safeguards.

I think there is a very good chance things like this start operating in the next decade (especially a simple trust based darknet bink), the only question is how rampant will the exit scams be?

— Birth Of A New Market —

Bitcoin is evolving into money, that’s what we’re all witnessing and participating in. Speculation, to value transmission, to unit of account. A core and absolutely required dynamic for this evolution to be completed is a massive and liquid arbitrage between Bitcoin, fiat, and goods & services. This arbitrage is what will allow businesses to actually accept and use Bitcoin. Once Bitcoin is large and relatively stable enough, a business can accept it and pay suppliers without the kind of volatility risk that exists currently. The closer Bitcoin’s stability gets to a respective fiat currency, the safer it is to accept and use Bitcoin directly rather than immediately sell for fiat. Arbitrage traders will trade these gaps, businesses will probably arbitrage these pairs themselves! Is it a better return for you to accept Bitcoin or fiat for something? Incentivize with discounts. Is it a better return for you to pay your supplier in Bitcoin or fiat? That’s what you’ll make your decision on. This dynamic is what will truly launch Bitcoin into the realm of money.

Now, the world is shifting rather rapidly in terms of geopolitical balance. The US has spent the last 20 years playing Empire in the wake of 9/11, destroying numerous countries, pressuring the world to isolate others. We are clearly starting to see the reaction to this in the form of other nations beginning to develop alternative settlement systems and moving to lessen dependence on the USD. China and Russia have begun building their own SWIFT alternatives to settle payments. They’re also even trading oil against non-USD currencies. Venezuela is even trying to foster an oil trade in its own centralized “cryptocurrency” the Petro. The world is sick of American over-reach, and they are starting to take action to create platforms and systems not subject to American control and censorship.

This trend will undeniably continue, and inevitably begin to envelop Bitcoin itself. There is no reason why the arbitrage dynamic between Bitcoin <> fiat <> good & services has to start in the retail market. In fact, I think it very likely won’t. Within the next decade I am very confident that a coalition of nations in alignment against the United States will begin trading and settling oil against Bitcoin. If Bitcoin’s market capitalization, liquidity, and price continue growing at the rates they have historically then it is inevitable. The protocol and network can handle it, the products and services to hedge against the risk of volatility are becoming more numerous every year, and the overall liquidity would offer more utility than individual non-USD fiat currencies and nation-state funny “crypto” money.

An event like this would bring massive capital influxes and price movements like you could not comprehend, and I think the chances of this not happening some time in the next decade are extremely low. Buckle up.

In Conclusion

This next decade is going to bring change and evolution on such a massive scale it will melt your faces off. I really don’t think many people in this ecosystem really grasp that. Obviously the people building things, the company CEOs, the players actually involved in these shifts and changes know. It’s also definitely fair to say that the astute and balanced observers know as well. But most people who hold Bitcoin, or casually participate or spectate in this space…I don’t think they have any idea.

The last decade was the shift from cypherpunk pipe dream to playing in the minor leagues. This next decade is going to be the shift to the major leagues. Do we all fuck up? Do we knock it out of the park? Does someone get hit in the stands if we hit a homer?

Who knows. I think observant people are capable of seeing inevitable outcomes from large trends, of seeing the large trends themselves and projecting different ways they can go.

Things are serious now, and that requires acting and thinking seriously.

The news of USDT (Tether) coming to Bitcoin and Lightning via Taproot Assets has been met with various reactions.

Some believe it’s good for Bitcoin (most, actually, based on a small survey I conducted on X; yes, I know the sample size isn’t large enough for the results to be significant. I’M SHARING IT ANYWAY), while others aren’t so enthused about it.

Tether (USDT) on Bitcoin and Lightning is:

(Please share why in the comments and please RT after you vote.)

— Frank Corva (@frankcorva) February 13, 2025

“Others” includes me — I’m not so enthused about it.

That said, I’ve tried to be open-minded.

I even recently profiled Jesse Shrader, the co-founder and CEO of Amboss, a company that provides intelligent payment infrastructure for payments made over Lightning, who’s a proponent of USDT on Bitcoin and Lightning, in efforts to see what I might be missing about the benefits of being able to transact with digital U.S. dollars over Lightning.

In my interview with Shrader, he made the following points:

• The proliferation of USDT has proven that there’s a demand for U.S. dollars globally
• USDT is a massive payment mechanism; it processed over $10 trillion in payments in 2024, more than MasterCard, and some percentage of those payments will now be made over Lightning
• USDT will bring more liquidity to the Lightning Network, which will help the network grow and handle bigger payments

From a business perspective, it’s hard to argue that the above aren’t good reasons to bring USDT to Lightning. And, as someone who believes that people should be free to use whatever money they want, I can't argue with them when looking at them through a practical lens.

However, I do believe that bringing USDT to Bitcoin and Lightning comes at a price.

One dimension of that price is technical, while the other is philosophical.

On the technical level, running USDT over Bitcoin and Lightning potentially puts Bitcoin’s security at risk.

If we see another Bitcoin hard fork comparable to the one we saw during the Blocksize War, larger economic nodes on the Bitcoin network, like the one operated by Coinbase, which manages much of the bitcoin that backs the U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, may opt to support the “Tether fork” of the network, which could also include other changes to the network that could jeopardize Bitcoin’s security in the long run.

In other words, if the likes of Coinbase, Tether and some other major players in the Bitcoin space support and push for the “Tether fork,” other major economic nodes will likely follow suit.

What is more, everyone using USDT on Bitcoin and Lightning would also likely support that side of the fork, because the USDT that remains on the chain of the non-”Tether fork” will likely be nullified.

Lyn Alden wrote about this in her essay “Proof-Of-Stake And Stablecoins: A Blockchain Centralization Dilemma.”

In the piece she stated “custodians can nullify the value of all stablecoins on whichever side of the fork they don’t view as the correct one.”

Granted, Alden was referring to smart contract blockchains like Ethereum and Solana that rely heavily on DeFi, which stablecoins are a major component of, when she wrote this, but the same would apply to Bitcoin. (Alden was correct in this claim, as we saw when Ethereum shifted from a Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism during 2022’s “The Merge.”

Post-Merge, stablecoins issuers like Circle and Tether only continued to back the tokenized U.S. dollars on Ethereum, and not EthereumPoW (ETHW), the older chain that continued running the Proof-of-Work consensus algorithm.)

The same type of scenario could play out with Bitcoin in the event of a chain split, giving Tether an inordinate amount of power over Bitcoin.

My other reason for not liking USDT on Bitcoin is a philosophical one.

Bitcoin, which was released into the world in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, was created as an alternative to the U.S. dollar.

At the time, the dollar was being printed en masse (i.e., devalued) to bail out the same banks that caused the crisis.

Bitcoin, money that can’t be printed at the whim of a government or central bank, was created to compete with the U.S. dollar, not to help buoy it.

Bringing USDT, a mechanism the U.S. government uses to prop up U.S. dollar hegemony around the world, to Bitcoin feels morally wrong to me — and I’m not here for it.

So, on a practical level, I get why some are in favor of USDT coming to Bitcoin and Lightning. I just think that many are missing the bigger picture in that Bitcoin has potentially both been put in a vulnerable position and has had part of its value proposition overshadowed (albeit maybe just temporarily) as a result.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

This is one thing that people will spaz out about, and I get why, but ultimately I think it’s childishly naive to think this wouldn’t happen. First off, banks don’t exist just to hold your money for you and process payments. They make loans. There is a reason they do this, it’s a useful thing in an economy and society, it provides a return to the liquidity providers (with risk) and allows entrepreneurs to engage in endeavors they otherwise would not be able to finance. This alone guarantees they will continue to exist. Loans are based on trust, they require coordinators and people to manage and track them. They require central points: banks.

That said, I guarantee they will thrive on just custodying Bitcoin and processing payments on their own private second layers. People like having someone to call for customer support, they like having recourse when things go wrong, they like having specialists take care of things they are not specialized in. This is why people have a Google or Facebook account, and don’t run their own SMTP server or decentralized social media node. Now, I absolutely think things are going to shift back in that direction and that we’re already seeing the beginnings of that, but that trend is going to be a generational thing. It’s not going to happen overnight, and possibly not even within our lifetime. Or maybe things just trend that direction and falter before actually getting all the way to the extreme. Who knows. But I do know what the world is like today, and I do know the reasons it is like that today. So this will happen, count on it.

Fear not though, all is not lost. Centralized but private electronic cash has been possible since David Chaum came up with the original “Ecash” design in the 1980s. Extending these designs to encompass more complicated “smart contract” analogs with a centralized enforcement probably isn’t impossible, or even relatively hard. It is also perfectly possible to offer accounts denominated in Bitcoin without KYC/AML intrusion or doxxing. The impediments to these things have nothing to do with technological limitations, and everything to do with legal, regulatory, and social impediments. Those are things that can be shaped and directed. Yes, at the scales necessary for these types of impediments being removed the effort would be massive, but one cannot honestly say it is impossible.

There’s even an incentive to push people in that direction: regulatory arbitrage. Given that Bitcoin is global and entirely digital, any jurisdictions loosening regulations and laws regarding financial services could see revenue influxes from across the entire world by doing so.

The Political Arena

We are now full on in the spot light of the global political arena. Ignore that at your own peril.

Yes Bitcoin the technology is apolitical. Neutral. All technology is. But if you try and make the argument that Bitcoin’s effects on the world around it at scale are not political, and do not politically back everyone into a choice between individual liberty and full on totalitarianism, you are asleep. I’m American, this is going to be to some degree Amero-centric, so we’ll lay it out like this:

The right: The direction, DIRECTION, the Republican party leans. I am not saying it embodies it, just its a landmark in that direction.

The left: The direction the Democrat party leans. Again, same disclaimers as above.

Bitcoin’s mere existence shapes the environment to favor right leaning political structures. Structures that bias their actions towards those favoring individual liberty above all else. The bigger Bitcoin gets, the more it shapes the environment around it to favor that type of political structure. That is just the reality. The bigger Bitcoin gets, the more inevitable it is politicians begin framing it in these left/right terms. They will do it because that is what politicians do, and there is the kernel of truth in that framing to reinforce it plus the hyperbole, lies, and exaggerations that tag along for the ride.

This divide will likely concentrate mostly around two issues:

• Wealth inequality: Bitcoin will be a hot-button topic in relation to this isssue. Bitcoin will definitely redistribute massive wealth, but not even close to evenly.
• Environmentalism: the narrative that Bitcoin is hurting the environment will not be going away any time soon.

I could very well be wrong, but I see these dynamics playing out as almost foregone conclusions personally. Its just how Bitcoin falls into the current tug of war going on globally between ranges on the political spectrum. There is a giant tug of war going on everywhere between more localized small scale sovereignty, and less localized larger scale relinquishment of sovereignty to massive sovereign entities. Bitcoin naturally empowers and encourages the former, and is the natural enemy of the latter. As it grows larger, it will become more inter-connected with politics around the world, and this is likely a rough idea of how it will play out.

This will play out all over the world on the national level, the state level, probably even down to the city level after enough time. This will eventually get to the point where it moves beyond the point of international bodies debating regulation to respond to Bitcoin. It will start moving into the territory of alliances between nations based on their stance regarding Bitcoin. Once things really escalate to that level, it really is an open question how exactly that starts playing out.

You have two options:

1. Work within whatever your local political process is to push things in the direction of localized smaller scale sovereignty.
2. Opt out of the political process and its results where you can, and shut up and comply with its results where you can’t.

Choose wisely.

Big Boys Entering The Ring

Bigger markets = more liquidity = bigger players. This has already been occurring in a serious way for the past few years. The end of the last bull market saw the launch of the first cash settled Bitcoin futures. Since then we’ve seen trading start (and stop) for multiple Bitcoin products traded on legacy financial platforms. We now also have physically settled (delivering real BTC) futures on Bakkt, as well as options on those futures and their own cash settled futures product. German banks have been cleared to handle and offer cryptocurrency to their customers. The Swiss financial authorities and institutions have been friendly with the ecosystem for years.

These types of institutional entities and pools of liquidity entering the space is going to fundamentally alter the structure of this market to the foundation. With them is going to come the government regulations, government restrictions, and government requirements that come along with the legacy world. How much of the liquidity in this market that is attracted to the platforms these players build will dictate how much influence legacy government regulations and responses have in the overall ecosystem in the scope of the market and pricing mechanism. The more liquidity on these restricted platforms, the more indirect control governments will have over the pricing mechanism of Bitcoin. This indirect control over the pricing mechanism could potentially translate into another degree removed of indirect control over the outcome of any future consensus disputes. This is something to be wary of.

The observable trends suggest to me that the entrance into this market by these large pools of liquidity could very easily wind up crowding out the types of fly-by-night no-KYC bucket-shops currently making up a very sizable percentage of market platforms. This is going to make the market overall more restricted, more difficult to navigate while avoiding government bureaucracy and regulation, and potentially even difficult to maintain ideal consensus on the protocol itself if it follow through far enough to that extreme.

This very well could lead ultimately to a hard line partitioning the black market from the clear market in terms of Bitcoin trading platforms, maybe even Bitcoins themselves if things do not go our way regarding Bitcoin upgrades that ultimately compose to massive privacy improvements. Or if we become lax in defending our own rights to privacy if we reside in jurisdictions where those rights are recognized. This landscape is changing, and one way or another have to adapt.

Decentralizing The Infrastructure

Twitter censorship. Facebook censorship. Youtube censorship. Political bias. Political interference. Even DNS and VPS censorship. That is the world we are living in with regards to companies providing services on the internet or operating internet infrastructure. This isn’t a universal situation everywhere, nor is this type of censorship applied evenly to all things or activities, but it is undeniably a growing trend.

This needs to be attacked socially (though in a very thought out and cautious manner), but also technologically. The Fediverse is an experiment in creating a middle ground between a protocol and service through their federated environment where anyone can run a Mastodon instance (among many things) and connect them together through federations. Bluesky is a recent initiative started by Jack Dorsey at Twitter to engage in research to determine the viability of transforming Twitter from a private service into an open protocol, and if viable try to do so. We also have goTenna working on consumer products to actually decentralize physical infrastructure for data transmission. The bandwidth is limited, but it’s a start. There are also numerous DIY mesh networking projects.

That leads me into the efforts along this vein directly relating to Bitcoin itself. goTenna partnered with Samourai Wallet to produce txTenna. This allows someone to initially broadcast their Bitcoin transactions over a mesh network to obscure their identity, bouncing the transaction around the local goTenna network until it finds a node that can push it over the internet to the Bitcoin network. There is also the LochaMesh project in Venezuela, born out of the intermittent electricity and internet access due to the instability in the country. Their designs incorporate communication tools as well as Bitcoin and Lightning functionality, and they are according to my last understanding attempting to take their DIY project in a commercial direction to make available easily to consumers.

It would be remiss of me to go into this topic without talking about the Blockstream Satellite Feed. I wouldn’t call this full on “decentralization” of infrastructure, it is very much still centralized, but I would call it a substantial change that would be foolish to ignore. First, it is centralized. It is entirely dependent on centralized companies’ satellites; these companies are very much in a position to turn them off at any time. Second, it’s free and completely private. Being a one way broadcast from the satellite, all you have to do is set it up and point a dish in the sky and you’re receiving the Bitcoin blockchain. That doesn’t leave network fingerprints to identify you as a Bitcoin user, and as a benefit it’s free delivery of large amounts of data. So you depend on central entities, but gain a large degree of privacy.

These types of projects and different ways of designing and running infrastructure will continue thriving on the fringes of both Bitcoin and the internet in general over the next decade. There are also numerous ways to compose these things. Blockstream has partnered with txTenna to link their satellite feed now. I think that integration can go even further. Mesh and radio technology isn’t enough to scale the entire network globally using nothing else, but it can fill gaps or handle distribution for “sub-networks” concerned mostly with just propagating transactions and validating blocks. A node could receive blocks from the satellite feed and then propagate them over shorter range mesh networks that can handle higher throughput. This type of synergy might even translate to mining; with Compact Blocks miners can transmit only the block header and a small piece of data to construct the actual block from your mempool. If the latency trade off is practical, miners could attempt to use these types of mesh networks to obscure their physical location slightly during block propagation while receiving real-time block relay from an anonymous satellite feed.

I see a lot of potential for co-existence or integration between Lightning Network and mesh networking technology as well. Global Mesh Labs is working on the Lot49 Protocol to incentivize mesh network nodes by integrating Lightning Network to pay for relaying data. This is a very interesting direction things could go as far as evolving synergy between Bitcoin and mesh networking protocols, but its viability remains to be seen. Personally, I’m very optimistic but cautious in my expectations. Even without this type of tight integration of the two things though, mesh networking can be very useful for Bitcoin. I think it will be inevitable for localized Lightning sub-networks to start growing where everyone is peered over the mesh network, only interacting with local people over the mesh network, and receiving feeds of the blockchain for security. A few bridge nodes can route money in and out of these sub-networks as needed. At global scale those types of network structures just make sense to me and seem like a natural pattern things will fall into.

This stuff isn’t going mainstream in the next decade, but expect rapid progress and development as the die-hards and the crazies rapidly iterate on the fringes.

This is just Part 3 of 4, read the last part tomorrow. 

Date Founded: March 2021

Location of Headquarters: Nashville, TN

Number of Employees: 10

Website: https://amboss.tech/

Public or Private? Private

Jesse Shrader thinks that this will be an important year for the Lightning Network.

With Bitcoin’s price on the rise and Tether (USDT) coming to Lightning, Shrader posits that more and more businesses and institutions will begin to see Lightning for payments in the year ahead.

And his company, Amboss, is poised to help make this vision a reality.

“We want to extend Bitcoin as a payment system and use Lightning to do that,” Shrader told Bitcoin Magazine. “We want to make Lightning a high-efficiency, high-performance system.

Through a suite of tools and services Shrader and the team at Amboss have developed, they are prepared to onboard the next wave of institutional users to the world’s largest permissionless payment network — especially now that USDT runs on Lightning.

What Amboss Does

Amboss primarily provides intelligent payment infrastructure for digital payments using the Lightning Network.

“We deliver insights to people regarding what they should do to increase efficiency of payments on the network,” said Shrader.

To accomplish this, they offer a number of products and services.

One of the most notable of these is Amboss Space, which is a Lightning Network explorer that employs machine learning to help users retrieve information on or connect to any node on the network.

Beyond their analytics software, Amboss also provides its customers with tools and services to help improve liquidity conditions on Lightning.

One such service is Magma Marketplace, which lets users buy and sell liquidity on the Lightning Network. Using Magma, users can provide liquidity — without giving up custody of their bitcoin — for a yield.

Another is Hydro, an extension of Magma. The software enables users to automate their liquidity purchases to better ensure the success of payments.

(And Amboss also offers Reflex, a compliance suite for business customers with AML (Anti-Money Laundering) reporting obligations.)

Amboss’ analytics software and tools are built for high-volume transactions, which are becoming easier to make on Lightning.

“We measure businesses’ ability to make payments with simulations,” explained Shrader. “We'll help businesses see how much of the network can they actually reach when they attempt a payment.”

The State Of Lightning

Shrader is optimistic when it comes to the growth of Lightning. With each passing day, users are relying on the network to send more than just micropayments.

“We’ve been successfully processing everyday payments on Lightning, which I’m defining as between $10 and $4,000 payments,” said Shrader. “We’re working to enhance the network’s capabilities even further, with a focus on decentralization.”

Payments larger than $4,000 are still difficult to process. Shrader explained that more capital is needed to help make processing larger payments a reality.

However, he also noted that the recent increase in bitcoin's price has helped larger payments to be processed more easily.

“What we saw recently is that the Bitcoin price has increased, which has increased the capability for settlement across all Lightning channels,” said Shrader. “Since the channels are bitcoin denominated, it's like we got bigger pipes.”

And while Shrader is optimistic about these bigger pipes allowing for more throughput, he also believes that Tether (USDT)’s coming to Lightning will attract even more liquidity to the network.

Tether (USDT) On Lightning

At the end of last month, Lightning Labs announced that it’s bringing USDT to Bitcoin and the Lightning Network via the Taproot Assets protocol.

This upgrade enables Bitcoin service providers to integrate and accept USDT more easily, which Shrader believes will be a boon for Lightning.

“One thing that's very clear is Tether has product market fit,” said Shrader.

“Last year, it served $10 trillion in payments, which exceeds Visa and MasterCard,” he added.

“It’s very clear that the world wants U.S. dollars.”

Shrader, a pragmatist, acknowledged the fact that many hardline Bitcoiners have issues with USDT running on Bitcoin and Lightning, and he sympathizes with them, as he appreciates that bitcoin’s sound money qualities.

At the same time, he thinks the benefits of having USDT on Lightning clearly outweigh the cons, as many still don’t understand what bitcoin is, nor are they willing to stomach its volatility.

“Many haven't yet taken the orange pill and come to understand the advantages of bitcoin,” he explained.

“I think bitcoin is an incredible tool, and I want to bring that to as many people as possible. With that said, there are a lot of problems with traditional payments, and Bitcoin has this very secure, auditable system, which is something that I want to bring to the world at scale,” he added.

“While bitcoin’s price action is great for me, a lot of people are afraid of volatility. If you have an asset with very low volatility like USDT, now on very secure, trustless rails, that's a huge win.”

The Problem That USDT On Lightning Solves

Shrader recounted how the first Bitcoin-related conference MicroStrategy hosted was actually called “Lightning for Corporations.” At the conference, companies were encouraged to start paying employees in bitcoin over Lightning — without fully realizing the troubles this would cause at the time.

“What employers realized was that all of the 1099s that needed to be submitted to employees was a hassle,” said Shrader. “And there was a whole bunch of regulatory overhead that they had to contend with, as well.”

Shrader pointed out that not only can paying employees in USDT over Lightning reduce accounting and regulatory headaches, but it also reduces some of the counterparty risk associated with using banks — a reality with which Shrader is quite familiar.

“Our payroll used to go through Silicon Valley Bank,” said Shrader.

“And, at one point, the payroll provider contacted me to resend my mid-month payroll after I had attempted to pay the staff. I lost half a month’s runway. This was all because of Silicon Valley Bank being insolvent,” he added.

“So, if I can avoid the counterparty risk in the financial system by moving to Bitcoin and Lightning, then that means that I'm in a much better place.”

[Author's note: Some counterparty risk still exists when using USDT, as you have to trust that Tether holds actual U.S. dollars to back the tokenized ones it issues.]

The Risks

Shrader noted some of the risks of USDT on Bitcoin and Lightning, but didn’t seem too concerned about them.

“There are some MEV risks when you have assets other than a blockchain’s native asset being traded on-chain,” said Shrader. “But Bitcoin already has Ordinal inscriptions that create other assets, so that problem already exists.”

He also didn’t seem flustered when I brought up the risk of a Bitcoin fork resulting in the USDT on one of the chains becoming worthless, nor did he feel that there's notable risk of larger economic nodes in the Bitcoin network, like Coinbase, which custodies the bitcoin for the U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, opting to support a "Tether fork" of Bitcoin, which could also include other upgrades that could hurt Bitcoin in the long run.

"Bitcoin consensus is not determined by custody of bitcoin, so while an important business like Coinbase may support various changes or initiatives, that doesn't guarantee that protocol changes would be effected," Shrader said.

Instead of focusing on the risks associated with USDT on Bitcoin, Shrader is doing the opposite.

“What's more interesting is probably the opportunities that that unlocks where you have actual arbitrage ability on Bitcoin itself,” said Shrader.

“Since every node is capable of transacting in both USDT and bitcoin is also capable of exchanging between them natively on Lightning, you can send bitcoin out of one Lightning channel and receive USDT in another of your Lightning channels,” he added.

“That can be as simple as generating a USDT invoice and paying it with BTC, instantly rebalancing holdings.”

2025: The Year Of Lightning

In Shrader’s final thoughts from my interview with him, he shared two last key reasons why 2025 will be the year of Lightning.

The first is that holding bitcoin is no longer required to use Lightning.

“Up until this year, if people or businesses wanted to switch to Lightning, they needed to have bitcoin first — and that's a huge barrier,” explained Shrader. (Shrader added in a response to a follow-up question that, outside of the U.S., it’s relatively easy and common to get access to USDT.)

“The bitcoin-only market for payment processing is tiny. But this year we’ve removed that barrier, and consumers can pay with another asset — USDT. There’s already a large market for that,” he added.

(Shrader also noted that while USDT is running on Lightning rails, bitcoin still benefits, as the USDT is converted into bitcoin as it travels across Lightning. He added that "all that bitcoin sloshing around on Lightning makes it more rewarding to run a Lightning node.")

What is more, Shrader noted that Lightning users will only pay a small fraction of what they had been paying in transaction fees using the traditional financial rails.

“We’re supplying liquidity at less than 0.5%,” said Shrader.

“As a user of big payment card networks, I'm paying 4% for all that payment processing, and the money doesn't show up for days to weeks after the payment is made,” he added.

“With Lightning, your payment processing fees drop by almost 10x.”

Given Shrader’s points, it's hard to imagine that 2025 won't be a big year for Lightning.

Schnorr and Taproot

Just over the horizon, we have the combination of Schnorr and Taproot. On the Schnorr side of things, this is a much cheaper to verify signature scheme in batches, as well as the next big leap in optimizing the construct of multi-signature scripts in Bitcoin. Multisig started out as just stuffing all the public keys and script for the multisig in a transaction output to send to it, and having to include all of that in the input to spend it. P2SH optimized the output aspect, by including a constant length hash of the public keys and scripts of the multisig, saving fees for anyone sending to a multisig address and leaving an increased cost only for the sender. SegWit arguably “optimized” further by making spending multisig UTXOs cheaper with the witness discount. Schnorr takes all this incremental optimization to the extreme. You combine the individual public keys into a single key, which everyone can collaborate to make a single signature for, and just check that. This creates massive cost savings for all use of multisig, including second layers like Lightning and federated sidechains, and creates a privacy benefit as well by making all of these multisig UTXOs indistinguishable from single signature ones.

Now that doesn’t just magically make everything completely private. Lightning channel states (transactions) still require separate key paths for their penalty transactions to react to submission of old states. That means those have to be in the output scripts which creates a fingerprint. Taproot solves this with its crypto-magic allowing you to commit a merkle tree of different spending conditions, that require only the condition used and merkle proof to the merkle root to spend, to a normal looking Schnorr public key. Now you can hide that penalty script path with taproot. You can hide any conditional script path with Taproot, buried underneath a perfectly normal looking Schnorr key that allows all participants to agree on something and make a perfectly normal looking transaction.

SIGHASH_ANYPREVOUTPUT

SIGHASH_ANYPREVOUTPUT (previously SIGHASH_NOINPUT) is hopefully the next new primitive to come down the pipeline. It is a new public key format/sighash flag upgrade. Sighash flags specify which parts of a transaction a signature is committing to. This functionality is there so that you can do something like sign just your input and outputs, but allow other people to add their own inputs and outputs to a transaction without invalidating it. But currently, a signature has to commit to an exact UTXO from an exact transaction. SIGHASH_ANYPREVOUT, among other things, would enable committing a signature to just a UTXO script, not an actual specific UTXO. This allows a new way (eltoo) to construct Lightning channel states that does not require a penalty key or deal with old states by allowing the cheated party to confiscate all the money. Instead, the current channel state could simply re-spend the old channel state if it lost the double spend race, guaranteeing everyone gets their current channel balance on chain as opposed to a prior outdated balance. You accomplish that by just re-using the same script in the right place and using SIGHASH_ANYPREVOUT.

This removes a lot of risks regarding you losing current channel states resulting in a penalty transaction taking your funds for an honest mistake. It also enables MUCH more. Now we can have Lightning channels with more than 2 participants, and can even stack “sub-channels” on top of those. Also, SIGHASH_ANYPREVOUT and eltoo enable the creation of Statechains, a type of federated channel construct that allows new participants to enter and exit completely off chain with the trust assumption that the federation will not collude with past participants to defraud anyone. This opens a lot of potential for what I’ve been calling to myself “multi-party static UTXO protocols.”

OP_CHECKTEMPLATEVERIFY

OP_CTV is a proposal by Jeremy Rubin to enable a very basic type of “covenant” on Bitcoin. A covenant is more complicated restrictions to spending a coin beyond signatures from certain keys. The type of covenant Rubin’s proposal would implement is a “template.” Essentially, this allows a UTXO’s script to require specific exact outputs to be created by the spending transaction. So once a UTXO is created using OP_CTV, it is enforced by consensus that the UTXO has to be spent to specific addresses in the specific amounts defined in that UTXO’s script. You can even chain these together so that one of these UTXOs is forced to make a few more of them, which are then forced to make a few more, on and on.

This has enormous general applicability all over the place. In high fee environments, a single UTXO can be made by a custodial entity that 100% under consensus rules guarantees all of their customers funds will wind up under their customers control, even though they don’t have immediate access to them in the moment. This has a lot of potential synergy with multi-party channels (channel factories), in that a mass “withdrawal” done like this can also simultaneously create and be used as a channel factory. OP_CTV can be used to create payment channels that at least work uni-directionally without the receiving end having to participate or have a key online to receive payments (and remember you can stack channels on top of each other). It can even be used to allow a single channel to process more HTLCs at one time by bundling them together with the same trick that first example with custodial withdrawals uses. And might even create some potential for new types of coinjoins.

Putting Everything Together

Assuming all the above proposals are adopted and incorporated into Bitcoin, I really think that aside from the developers actually working on the leading edge of these things, people don’t even have the faintest clue what types of protocols and services will be built using these primitives. Or the weird things where there is no clear dividing line between service or protocol.

They will enable multi-party channels with theoretically unbounded participant numbers, that can stack sub-channels on top with smaller sub-groups of the participants of the base channel. Channels can be built on top of these “channel factories” that allow people to receive money without having keys online for a hot wallet. These multi-party channels can themselves be stacked on top of federated channels (statechains) that allow participants to enter or exit with zero on-chain activity! And the construct of channel “splicing” will allow liquidity to move relatively seamlessly between different channels in ways that will enable all kinds of things people haven’t even really began thinking about.

My last word in this section is: this is only considering what can be done with things I consider direct parts of the Bitcoin protocol stack itself. You can do a lot more if you start looking at centralized custodial services, and what subset of Bitcoin’s properties those can provide ignoring regulatory or legal barriers from doing so.

This is just Part 2 of 4, read the next part tomorrow. 

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Mastering Bitcoin On-Chain Data

Realized Price & MVRV Z-Score

On-chain data refers to the publicly available transaction records on Bitcoin’s blockchain. Unlike traditional markets, where investor actions are obscured, Bitcoin’s transparency allows for real-time analysis of every transaction, wallet movement, and network activity. This information helps investors identify major trends, accumulation zones, and potential price inflection points.

One of the most crucial on-chain metrics is Realized Price, which reflects the average cost basis of all BTC in circulation. Unlike traditional assets, where investor cost bases are difficult to determine, Bitcoin provides real-time visibility into when the majority of holders are in profit or loss.

View Live Chart ????

To enhance the utility of Realized Price, analysts employ the MVRV Z-Score, which measures the deviation between market value and realized value, standardized for Bitcoin’s volatility. This indicator has historically identified optimal buying zones when it enters the lower range and potential overvaluation when it enters the red zone.

View Live Chart ????

Monitoring Long-Term Holders

Another key metric is the 1+ Year HODL Wave, which tracks Bitcoin addresses that haven’t moved funds for at least a year. A rising HODL wave indicates that investors are choosing to hold, reducing circulating supply and creating upward price pressure. Conversely, when this metric starts declining, it suggests profit-taking and potential distribution.

View Live Chart ????

HODL Waves visualizes the entire distribution of Bitcoin ownership by age bands. Filtering to new market participants of 3 months or less reveals typical retail participation levels. Peaks in short-term holders typically signal market tops, while low levels indicate ideal accumulation zones.

View Live Chart ????

Spotting Whale Movements

Supply Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed quantifies the total BTC moved, weighted by how long it was held, and standardizes that data by the circulating supply at that time. For example:

• 1 BTC held for 100 days → 100 Coin Days Destroyed
• 0.1 BTC held for 1,000 days → 100 Coin Days Destroyed

This metric is invaluable for detecting whale activity and institutional profit-taking. When long-dormant coins suddenly move, it often signals large holders exiting positions. Historical data confirms that spikes in this data point align with major market tops and bottoms, reinforcing its value in cycle analysis.

View Live Chart ????

Realized Gains & Losses

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) reveals the profitability of BTC transactions. A SOPR value above 0 indicates that the average Bitcoin being moved is in profit, while a value below 0 means the average sale is at a loss. By observing SOPR spikes, traders can identify euphoric profit-taking, while SOPR declines often accompany bear market capitulations.

View Live Chart ????

Relying on a single metric can be misleading. To increase the probability of accurate signals, investors should seek confluence between multiple on-chain indicators.

For example, when:

• MVRV Z-score is in the green zone (undervalued)
• SOPR indicates high realized losses (capitulation)
• HODL waves show a decline in short-term holders (selling exhaustion)

This alignment historically marks optimal accumulation zones. You should also look for confluence for any planned profit-taking for your BTC holdings, looking for the above metrics all signaling the opposite to outline overheated market conditions.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s on-chain data provides a transparent, real-time view of market dynamics, offering investors an edge in decision-making. By tracking supply trends, investor psychology, and accumulation/distribution cycles, Bitcoiners can better position themselves for long-term success.

Explore live data, charts, indicators, and in-depth research to stay ahead of Bitcoin's price action at Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Mining and Network Security

In 2010 the network was secured by hobbyists desktop CPUs, trivially over powered by any large resourceful actor. At the start of 2020 it is secured by billions of dollars of hardware consuming the collective electricity requirements of entire small nations, supplied to the operators by many different companies valued at billions of dollars (given, pie in the sky valuations, but still). In 10 years, the security mechanism of the network shifted from consumer hardware and hobbyists to specialized ASIC equipment and professionally managed data center operations.

Protocol Development

In 2010 you could send Bitcoin to public keys (or IP addresses), timelock transactions(JUST the transaction, not the UTXO), do raw multisig which were massive and expensive even to send to, and oh yeah: anyone could spend any coins using OP_RETURN due to a bug. And yes, I know the script system had much more back then, I’m talking about what was practically doable for an average person. In 2020…well I think I have to bullet point this:

• Use P2SH to make sending money to more advanced scripts (like multisig) cheaper for the sending party.
• Timelock an actual UTXO to an absolute blockheight or UNIX timestamp.
• Timelock an actual UTXO to a relative blockheight or UNIX timestamp interval from it’s creation.
• Construct transactions that do not have malleable TXIDs for second layer protocols/chained transactions thanks to Segregated Witness. (Also, we can now upgrade script easier due to SegWit having its own versioning. There are only so many undefined OPs in Bitcoin script that can be defined to add new script functions to Bitcoin script. SegWit versioning allows adding new functions by using new Witness versions instead of using up very scarce undefined OPs.)
• Utilize a basic in-development version of the Lightning Protocol, a second layer enabled by the malleable fix implemented in SegWit.
• Have actually deployed sidechains in which more advanced and/or experimental features can be deployed and tested easier.

Ten years has produced an impressive amount of primitives with which to build upon the core foundation of Bitcoin’s base network and blockchain. Especially considering the complexity and difficulty of trying to ascertain consensus on upgrades, and then implementing and deploying such upgrades if it is present.

Political Relevance

In 2010, Bitcoin was just an insignificant blip on the radar. The CIA had only just noticed and taken interest in it. Their response was to have a developer come in and give a talk, resulting in the disappearance of Satoshi Nakamoto. Other than that, people weren’t paying attention, politicians weren’t paying attention, most agencies weren’t paying attention (except Alphabet ones we might not know about now). Bitcoin was an obscure nothing.

In 2020…Bitcoin has spawned an entire market and industry worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Exchanges have made billions in revenue from trading fees. Miners have made billions of dollars collectively in return for their operational investments. Tens of millions, possibly hundreds of millions, of people own Bitcoin (metrics here are very vague and hard to really distill meaningful information from). We’ve gone from the CIA barely taking interest, to essentially every meaningful government in the world regularly having legislature or committee meetings to discuss Bitcoin and everything it has spawned in terms of its macro-economic and geopolitical consequences, and how to respond to them. Nations have launched cryptocurrencies. Nations have sanctioned cryptocurrency addresses. They are officially at the table. Back in 2010 only one agency that is notorious for having their nose everywhere was paying attention (that we know), now the entire world is paying attention.

Things have changed. As the metaphor goes, good luck stopping the train.

(This is just Part 1 of 4, read the next part tomorrow). 

This is a guest post by Shinobi. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Unlike earlier BTC bridges that often required reliance on centralized entities or questionable trust assumptions, the Finality Bridge leverages a blend of BitVM smart contracts, fraud proofs, and zero-knowledge proofs. This combination not only enhances security but also significantly reduces the need for trust in third parties. We’re not at the trustless level that Lightning provides, but this is a million times better than current sidechains designs claiming to be Bitcoin Layers 2s (in addition to significantly increasing the design space for Bitcoin applications).

The system operates on a principle where funds are securely locked in addresses governed by a BitVM smart contract, functioning under the premise that at least one participant in the system will act honestly. This setup inherently reduces the trust requirements but has to introduce additional complexities that Bitlayer aims to manage with this version of the bridge.

The Mechanics of Trust

In practical terms, when Bitcoin is locked into the BitVM smart contract through the Finality Bridge, users are issued YBTC - a token that maintains a strict 1:1 peg with Bitcoin. This peg is not just a promise but is enforced by the underlying smart contract logic, ensuring that each YBTC represents a real, locked Bitcoin on the main chain (no fake “restacked” BTC metrics). This mechanism allows users to participate in DeFi activities like lending, borrowing, and yield farming within the Bitlayer ecosystem without compromising on the security and settlement assurances that Bitcoin provides.

While some in the community might find these activities objectionable, this type of architecture allows users to get some guarantees that they previously could not hope to get with traditional sidechain designs, with the added bonus that we do not need to “change” Bitcoin to make it happen (although covenants would make this bridge design completely “trust-minimized, which would effectively make it a “True” Bitcoin Layer 2). For more details about the different levels of risks associated with sidechains designs, take a look at Bitcoin Layers assessment of Bitlayer here.

However, until such advancements come to fruition, the Bitlayer Finality Bridge serves as the best realization of the BitVM 2 paradigm. It's a testament to what's possible after the dev “brain drain” from centralized chains back to Bitcoin. Despite all the challenges that BitVM chains will face, I remain exceptionally excited at the prospect of Bitcoin fulfilling its destiny as the Ultimate Settlement Chain for all economic activity.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Guillaume's articles in particular may discuss topics or companies that are part of his firm’s investment portfolio (UTXO Management). The views expressed are solely his own and do not represent the opinions of his employer or its affiliates. He’s receiving no financial compensation for these Takes. Readers should not consider this content as financial advice or an endorsement of any particular company or investment. Always do your own research before making financial decisions. 

Bitcoin banks are going to happen. We already have a few of them. We’re going to have more of them. Existing legacy banks are going to start offering services. New banks are going to be founded around Bitcoin. This is completely unavoidable at this point. Bitcoin doesn’t scale. Even absent that, people value other services that inherently require other parties. Debt being the chief one.

This is an inescapable reality.

Even if we could snap our fingers and roll out every well specified opcode and covenant proposal at once, it would still take a lot of time to begin building out self-custodial layers that could compete with something like credit unions and banks offering bitcoin accounts at scale. That is not a problem that can be trivially solved overnight.

So what can we do? We need to embrace a localist attitude around making interaction with your bitcoin easy. This requires a two pronged approach, one involving technical development and the other involving, I hate to say it, lobbying.

There already exist pieces of software like LNDHub or LNBits that allow people to offer custodial accounts for Lightning. We need a lot more software like this, and we need it to be miles better. It needs to not involve tinkering around on the command line and hooking up independent software, or perusing Github to follow manual installation instructions, or fumbling around trying to fix dependencies mismatches.

It needs to just work.

Click, sync to the network, done. It needs to be something that power users who are still not very tech savvy can run safely, and not lose other people’s money. It needs to support more than basic accounts for Lightning. Ecash offers privacy, which would be something important when it comes to small groups of people who know each other. You don’t want your friend seeing what you spend your money on. It needs to support things like Unchained or Nunchuck style on-chain self custody. People aren’t going to want to hold all their friends and family’s life savings, but holding a recovery key to safeguard them from their own mistakes is another matter.

We need the software that will actually scale this type of user interaction beyond a bunch of activist nerds online.

We also need a regulatory carve out. There needs to be a clear acknowledgement that running this type of software for friends and family with trivial amounts of money, say thousands of dollars, and without charging anything for it, is an unregulated activity. Helping friends and family interact with Bitcoin safely and easily, and for free, does not make you a bank. The idea of a few thousand dollars needing to comply with the regulations banks managing billions of dollars do is frankly absurd.

This is the path forward given the current constraints of Bitcoin, and the reality of growing and accelerating adoption, that leads us away from a system that eventually becomes completely captured and neutered by legacy financial institutions.

Instead of depending on them to deal with the current scaling limitations of Bitcoin, we depend on each other. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Date Founded: September 2019

Location of Headquarters: United States

Number of Employees: 11

Website: https://www.galoy.io/

Public or Private? Private

Last week, Galoy launched Lana, software that enables banks to accept bitcoin as collateral for loans.

Lana helps community and challenger banks (the banks with which Galoy is looking to work) to offer bitcoin-backed loans to various types of customers.

“Some banks might want to use it to sell to retail, and some might want to use it to sell commercial customers or high-net-worth individuals,” Burtey told Bitcoin Magazine.

In offering such loans to a wide array of customers, Burtey believes that the high cost of borrowing currently associated with such products will come down.

“Today's interest rates are 12% to 15% if you want to get a loan using your bitcoin as collateral,” said Burtey.

“The rates are high because there are so few financial institutions offering this type of product. We see an opportunity now that the regulations are allowing banks to do things with bitcoin,” he added.

“We think a lot of banks will want to enter this market.”

If Burtey is correct in his prediction that banks are keen to offer bitcoin-backed loans, this will not only lower rates for such loans, but it will also introduce open-source Bitcoin software into the world of banking, which could initiate a new trend in the industry.

But more on that in just a minute. First, some background on Galoy.

Galoy’s History: From Blink Wallet To Lana

Founded in September 2019, Galoy had intentions to enable banks to use bitcoin from the start, but it had to hold off on doing so due to an unfriendly regulatory environment.

So, instead, it focused its efforts on creating and supporting Blink wallet (which was originally called the Bitcoin Beach wallet and which Galoy recently sold), a custodial Bitcoin and Lightning wallet predominantly used at first in El Salvador and then in Bitcoin circular economies globally.

“Galoy’s mission was to onboard banks to Bitcoin five years ago,” said Burtey.

“But the regulatory environment was so bad during the last five years that we decided to create Blink. The reason we are now focusing on our original mission is because with the end of Choke Point 2.0 and the repeal of SAB 121, we think now is the perfect time to help banks adopt Bitcoin.”

Burtey spoke about his work in creating and growing Blink fondly and shared that he had to stop working on the project only because it would be too difficult to continue managing it while also aiming to serve a new type of clientele.

“Blink is a B2C (Business-To-Customer) play, and it’s hard as an early-stage startup to focus on too many things,” explained Burtey.

“Galoy is a B2B (Business-To-Business)-driven business, and we want to work with banks and financial institutions,” he added.

“It’s good to be focused on just one thing.”

And, as mentioned, that one thing will now be Lana.

How Lana Works

Lana is software that Galoy helps banks integrate and manage for a subscription fee. With this software, banks can issue bitcoin-backed loans under the terms they create.

“We’re not the ones deciding how much interest will be charged or anything like that,” explained Burtey.

“We give banks the platform to do this, and then they can figure out their cost of capital, the duration of the loan, the liquidation price for the bitcoin in the loan and the rate at which they want to lend,” he added.

“We’re giving you software, and helping you run and automate that software.”

Something else that Galoy doesn’t do for banks is custody the bitcoin provided as collateral for the loans they issue. Each of the banks with whom the company works is responsible for selecting their own custodian.

“You can go to BitGo or Fireblocks or each loan can have its own multisig,” said Burtey. “We’re agnostic on custody.”

With that said, Lana helps banks monitor the bitcoin in custody so that banks can be aware of whether or not collateral is nearing liquidation levels.

“A key piece of this product is risk management,” said Burtey.

“Bitcoin is volatile, and the bank will need a tool to show that it’s taking calculated risk. So, we’ll provide banks with a dashboard to monitor this risk,” he added.

Who Will Use Lana?

Galoy is targeting community banks and other smaller financial institutions with this new product mostly because they think these smaller players will benefit most from it — and because the big banks likely won’t need such a product.

“We don't think JP Morgan will really want to work with us,” said Burtey. “They’re probably building something like this themselves, whereas a smaller bank, a credit union or small company probably isn’t.”

Burtey also understands that smaller lenders’ incorporating Lana as opposed to building something comparable themselves can save these financial institutions a significant amount of time and effort.

“Our goal is to say, ‘Look, you can develop this internally, and it will take you six months, a year or longer depending on how much you know about Bitcoin,’” said Burtey. “‘Or we have a lending product as a service for you, and you can launch it much more quickly.’”

And as Burtey and his team onboard their first round of smaller banks, they’ll not only be making history in enabling more banks to accept bitcoin as collateral for loans, but they’ll potentially be altering the trajectory of banking in general by introducing open-source software to it.

Open-Source Bitcoin Banking

Burtey’s long-term vision for Galoy is to do much more than just help banks issue bitcoin-backed loans. He’s looking to introduce open-source software into banking as more banks begin to embrace Bitcoin.

However, it’s important to note that Lana isn’t open-source just yet. It’s fair-source software, and, under such a license, code becomes open-source after two years.

“It's a delayed open-source system, but it's all available on GitHub,” said Burtey. “You can go and try it, test it, and play with it on your own.

Under the fair-source license, no company other than Galoy can sell the product to a bank right now, allowing Galoy to profit while still building with auditable code.

“We sell the deployment, and we help banks to plug in to their custodian,” explained Burtey. “We’re building in the open — but we also want to generate revenue.”

Beyond helping banks implement Lana, Burtey’s wants to develop open-source “core banking software,” as he’s looking to disrupt the “core ledger” oligopoly.

“The core ledger is where banks store the account data, customer information and transaction details,” said Burtey. “It’s the source of truth for banks.”

And only three companies — FIS, Fiserv and Jack Henry — have the core ledger market cornered.

“These are all like hundred billion dollar companies that you’ve probably never heard about because all they do is focus on selling software to banks,” said Burtey.

“Our long-term goal is to disrupt this industry by making something that is open source,” said Burtey. “Today, there is no company that does core banking with the idea of open source, and so we're working towards this.”

Burtey envisions a world in which open-source software can make it much easier for someone to start a Bitcoin bank. (For those who wince at the words “Bitcoin” and “bank” being used in tandem, might I remind you that it was the legendary Hal Finney himself who wrote that bitcoin-backed banks would serve as a scaling solution.)

“To start a bank today is a very expensive and complicated process,” said Burtey. “You have to pay $100,000 plus just to purchase the core ledger technology.”

Burtey then referenced his own experience in starting Blink wallet, essentially a bitcoin bank run on open-source code, before continuing.

“I just went to El Salvador and started what was effectively my own bank because I wanted to,” said Burtey.

“We need to reinvent how core banking software is being made in the world of Bitcoin, and I think this is where open-source becomes relevant,” he added.

“This is really why I think the world of banking and Bitcoin will be very different from the world of banking with fiat, and I think we’re one of the companies at the forefront of this.”

Bitcoin’s Evolution & Institutional Adoption

Rich Rines has been in the Bitcoin space since 2013, having witnessed firsthand its transformation from an experimental technology to a globally recognized financial instrument.

“By the 2017 cycle, I was pretty determined that this is what I was going to spend the rest of my career on.”

The conversation delves into Bitcoin’s growing role in institutional portfolios, with spot Bitcoin ETFs already surpassing $41 billion in inflows. Rines believes the institutionalization of Bitcoin will continue to reshape global finance, particularly with the rise of yield-generating products that appeal to Wall Street investors.

“Every asset manager in the world can now buy Bitcoin with ETFs, and that fundamentally changes the market.”

What is Core DAO?

Core DAO is an innovative blockchain ecosystem designed to enhance Bitcoin’s functionality through a proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism. Unlike traditional Bitcoin scaling solutions, Core DAO leverages a decentralized PoS structure to improve scalability, programmability, and interoperability while maintaining Bitcoin’s security and decentralization.

At its core, Core DAO acts as a Bitcoin-aligned Layer-1 blockchain, meaning it extends Bitcoin’s capabilities without altering its base layer. This enables a range of DeFi applications, smart contracts, and staking opportunities for Bitcoin holders.

“Core is the leading Bitcoin scaling solution, and the way to think about it is really the proof-of-stake layer for Bitcoin.”

By securing 75% of the Bitcoin hash rate, Core DAO ensures that Bitcoin’s security principles remain intact while offering greater functionality for developers and users. With a growing ecosystem of over 150+ projects, Core DAO is paving the way for the next phase of Bitcoin’s financial expansion.

Core: Bitcoin’s Proof-of-Stake Layer & DeFi Expansion

One of the biggest challenges facing Bitcoin is scalability. The Bitcoin network’s high fees and slow transaction speeds make it a powerful settlement layer but limit its utility for day-to-day transactions. This is where Core DAO comes in.

“Bitcoin lacks scalability, programmability. It’s too expensive. All these things that make it a great settlement layer is exactly the reason that we need a solution like Core to extend those capabilities.”

Core DAO functions as a proof-of-stake layer for Bitcoin, allowing users to generate yield without third-party risk. It provides an ecosystem where Bitcoin holders can participate in DeFi applications without compromising on security.

“We’re going to see Bitcoin DeFi dwarf Ethereum DeFi within the next three years because Bitcoin is a superior collateral asset.”

Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve Asset

Governments and sovereign wealth funds are beginning to view Bitcoin not as a currency but as a strategic reserve asset. The potential for a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, as well as broader global adoption at the nation-state level, could create a new financial paradigm.

“People are talking about building strategic Bitcoin reserves for the first time.”

The idea of Bitcoin replacing gold as a primary store of value is becoming more tangible. Rines asserts that Bitcoin’s scarcity and decentralization make it a superior alternative to gold.

“I think within the next decade, Bitcoin will become the global reserve asset, replacing gold.”

Bitcoin Privacy: The Final Frontier

While Bitcoin is often hailed as a decentralized and censorship-resistant asset, privacy remains a significant challenge. Unlike cash transactions, Bitcoin’s public ledger exposes all transactions to anyone with access to the blockchain.

Rines believes that improving Bitcoin privacy will be a critical step in its evolution.

“I’ve wanted private Bitcoin transactions for a really long time. I’m pretty bearish on it ever happening on the base layer, but there’s potential in scaling solutions.”

While solutions like CoinJoin and the Lightning Network offer some privacy improvements, full-scale anonymity remains elusive. Core is exploring innovations that could enable confidential transactions without sacrificing Bitcoin’s security and transparency.

“On Core, we’re working with teams on potentially having confidential transactions—where you can tell that a transaction is happening, but not the amount or counterparties involved.”

As governments continue to increase scrutiny over digital financial activity, the need for enhanced Bitcoin privacy features will only grow. Whether through native protocol upgrades or second-layer solutions, the future of Bitcoin privacy remains a crucial area of development.

The Future of Bitcoin: A Trillion-Dollar Market in the Making

As the interview progresses, Rines outlines how Bitcoin’s economic framework is expanding beyond speculation and into productive financial instruments. He predicts that within a decade, Bitcoin will command a $10 trillion market cap, with DeFi applications becoming a significant portion of its economic ecosystem.

“The Bitcoin DeFi market is a trillion-dollar opportunity, and we’re just getting started.”

His perspective aligns with a broader industry trend where Bitcoin is not only used as a store of value but also as an active financial asset within decentralized networks.

Rich Rines Roadmap for Bitcoin’s Future

Final Thoughts

The conversation between Matt Crosby and Rich Rines provides a compelling glimpse into the future of Bitcoin. With institutional adoption accelerating, Bitcoin DeFi expanding, and the growing recognition of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, it is clear that Bitcoin’s best years are ahead.

As Rines puts it:

“Building on Bitcoin is one of the most exciting opportunities in the world. There’s a trillion-dollar market waiting to be unlocked.”

For investors, developers, and policymakers, the key takeaway is clear: Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset—it is the foundation of a new financial system.

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Twenty-five years on, Szabo’s warnings about mental transaction costs—the cognitive overhead of deciding whether something is worth paying for—still resonate. Even as developments like AI-based “intelligent agents” and Bitcoin solutions such as the Lightning Network promise frictionless micropayments, Szabo’s observations remain crucial to understanding why this idea hasn’t fully taken flight, and whether that might finally change.

Below, we’ll examine:

• The core arguments from Szabo’s 1999 paper

• Why micropayments remained on the fringes for decades

• How AI and Bitcoin’s Lightning Network attempt to overcome these barriers

• Whether mental transaction costs can, at long last, be reduced enough to make micropayments mainstream

The Paper That Defined the Dilemma

In Micropayments and Mental Transaction Costs, Nick Szabo pinpointed a truth that technologists often overlooked: while computational costs (like processing payments, preventing fraud, or validating cryptography) can be driven down, the mental overhead of deciding, monitoring, or worrying about every tiny expense remains stubbornly high.

“Customer mental transaction costs will soon dominate the technological transaction costs of the payment system used in the transaction (if they don’t already), and micropayment technology efforts which stress technological savings over cognitive savings will become irrelevant. ”

- Nick Szabo, Micropayments and Mental Transaction Costs (1999)

Szabo’s core argument is that for most consumers, there’s a cognitive “hassle factor” in even the smallest payment decisions. Asking yourself, “Is this article worth 2 cents? 5 cents? 10?” quickly leads to fatigue, overshadowing the supposed simplicity of micropayments. Instead, consumers gravitate toward flat fees and all-you-can-eat bundles, even if those end up costing slightly more in the long run. The mental relief of knowing that you won’t be nickel-and-dimed with every click is simply more valuable than the few pennies saved.

Sources of These Cognitive Costs”?

3 points are listed in the paper, but they can be many more.

1. Uncertain Cash Flows

Consumers rarely have perfect foresight into exactly how much they will earn or spend at any given time. Flat fees or bundling reduce the stress of planning and budgeting for these uncertainties.

2. Assessing Product Quality

In many online purchases—especially digital goods—you can’t know the true “quality” of what you’re buying until you’ve used it. Whether it’s an article, a game, or a movie, the mental effort needed to decide “Is this worth x?” every time you click can be more expensive than the micropayment itself.

3. Decision-Making Complexity

Our brains are good at making quick calls when stakes are high or options are few, but terrible when we have infinite micro-decisions.

Why Micropayments Stalled—Despite New Tech

1. The Early “Internet Payment” Hype

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the internet was hailed as a new frontier for micro-billing. Systems like NetBill, Millicent, and PayWord promised frictionless flows of tiny sums. The dream? Artists, newspapers, and website owners would all be paid directly for each page view or each minute of content consumed.

But even as processing costs and fraud got more manageable, user adoption never reached critical mass. Szabo’s mental transaction cost argument largely explains this: Consumers found it simpler to deal with one monthly subscription than to handle countless pennies flying out of their digital wallets.

2. The Rise of “Free” Services Funded by Ads

Search engines, social media, and news sites gradually adopted a free-to-consume, ads-supported model. Why? It’s easy on the consumer’s mind—no sign-up or micro-accounting for every page load. Meanwhile, the site owner monetizes your attention via advertisements.

Even premium content gravitated toward low-friction paywalls and subscription models. Once the mental load of frequent, tiny payments was replaced by a single monthly charge, customers complained less and paid more consistently.

3. “Intelligent Agents” and AI: Early Promises, Slow Results

Szabo also anticipated solutions like “intelligent agents” that could, in theory, handle many micro-decisions on behalf of the consumer. The idea was that an AI could internalize your preferences (“I like reading about finance, but only from reputable sources, and I’m willing to pay up to 10 cents an article.”) and then automatically approve or decline micro-charges.

Yet building a truly personalized agent that doesn’t require continuous training and oversight—let alone potential conflicts of interest—has proven extremely challenging. For AI to manage micropayments accurately, it must grasp your tacit preferences and be trusted to act in your best interest.

Has Anything Changed in 25 Years?

While Szabo’s insights remain valid, the landscape in 2024 (and onward) does differ in a few important ways:

1. User Interfaces Have Improved

From intuitive mobile wallets to chatbots, user interface design is leagues ahead of where it was in 1999. Some friction has been removed: you can tap to pay, use passwordless logins, or integrate with wearables. But the cognitive overhead—the act of deciding whether a purchase is worthwhile—hasn’t vanished. Even a single tap is too much if you have to do it hundreds of times a day.

2. Blockchain & Cryptocurrencies

The Lightning Network has aimed to fix payments by enabling near-instant transactions with very low fees. It doesn’t solve the core argument of the paper, which assumes technical transaction costs are zero. But the Lightning Network is the current best standard and protocol on the internet for open, interoperable money to flow on the internet.

3. AI Enters The Chat

Tools like ChatGPT, advanced personalized recommendation engines, and agent frameworks have made it possible to tailor experiences more deeply to each user. In theory, an AI assistant could learn your tastes or budgets so well that you’re rarely disturbed with micro-approval prompts, or can automate them entirely within a certain budget. However, building up that trust in an AI agent remains a hurdle. The question moves from “Is this worth it?” to “What is my AI agent doing?”.

Looking Ahead: Are We Ready for a Micropayment Renaissance?

For mass adoption to happen, people need to avoid feeling nickel-and-dimed at every turn. Even if the technical fees are near zero, the mental transaction cost can make micropayments feel cumbersome. Making micropayments as invisible as possible, while keeping track of the value being exchanged, is therefore crucial.

Getting micropayments right will likely require a rethinking of business models, there are exciting examples where micropayments are emerging as a viable strategy:

• Pay-Per-API Call

In the AI SaaS world—micropayments are already thriving (called credits or tokens). Because companies evaluate usage strictly on ROI and business needs, they’re less deterred by the mental friction that keeps consumers at bay. They use just as much as they need in real-time.

• Tips & Donations

Small, voluntary payments for creators or open-source projects can work precisely because they don’t trigger the same sense of obligation. Users donate out of gratitude or community spirit, making micropayments feel more like a gesture than a forced charge. Stacker News and Nostr have been pushing this paradigm forward leveraging the Lighting Network.

Clever Design for Seamless Experiences

No matter the business model, user experience design is key to making micropayments practical. The simpler the interface, the more “invisible” the payments become. Some ideas include:

• Automated Rules & AI: Let users set broad preferences (“I don’t mind spending up to $2/day on premium articles”) and rely on an intelligent agent to handle decisions in the background.

• Bundled Invoices: Aggregate multiple micro-charges into one easy-to-understand statement, reducing the mental toll of each individual transaction. Ideally, this would be a standard and cross-product, instead of itemized in one niche or vertical.

• Intuitive Feedback: Offer clear yet minimal prompts—like a progress bar of monthly spend—that helps users track costs without being overwhelmed.

Overcoming the cognitive barriers identified by Nick Szabo demands not only faster, cheaper transaction rails but also thoughtful design that caters to real human psychology. When these elements come together—AI-based automation, usage-based models that don’t feel invasive, and a user interface that’s nearly frictionless—micropayments could see a genuine renaissance.

Conclusion: Szabo’s Insights Still Rule

Nick Szabo’s 1999 paper has proven remarkably prescient and held up after all these years. Even as technology has advanced—faster internet speeds, blockchain-based payment rails, and sophisticated AI—the central problem remains:

People don’t want to think about small payments all the time.

It’s not just about software or cryptography; it’s about the psychology of how we value attention, convenience, and certainty. Micropayments can succeed only if these mental costs can be minimized or “bundled away.” AI agents and the Bitcoin Lightning Network are crucial new pieces of the puzzle, but their success hinges on delivering a user experience that hides or automates micropayment decisions altogether.

Will the next 25 years finally bring an era where micropayments flourish? Possibly—if we figure out how to make paying a fraction of a penny feel as effortless as a monthly subscription. Even then, we might realize that micropayments simply become one more arrow in the quiver of payment models, coexisting with ad-based, subscription-based, and outright “free” offerings.

But for now, Szabo’s warning stands: a world of pure micropayments still collides with human psychology. Our mental transaction costs are real, and if the solutions of the future—be they AI, Lightning, or something else entirely—don’t address our deeper preference for simplicity, micropayments will remain an intriguing idea that never quite becomes the default.

References & Further Reading

• Szabo, N. (1999) “Micropayments and Mental Transaction Costs”

• Fishburn, P., Odlyzko, A. M., and Siders, R. C. (1997) “Fixed fee versus unit pricing for information goods”

• Nielsen, J. (1998) “The Case for Micropayments”

• Rivest, R. L. and Shamir, A. (1996) “PayWord and MicroMint—Two Simple Micropayment Schemes”

This is a guest post by Jacob Brown. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

???? Introducing the Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card

It pays to be a Fold+ Credit Cardholder

☑️2% Unlimited Bitcoin Rewards
☑️Up to $250 Welcome Bonus
☑️Free Metal Card

Join and climb your way to the top of the waitlist. $200,000 of prizes await!

Sign-up link and blog ???? pic.twitter.com/kSrvKAgXQA

— FOLD BITCOIN (@fold_app) February 11, 2025

Rewards for the card will vary depending on Fold membership level. Fold+ members will earn 2% back in bitcoin rewards and up to $250 in bonuses that will be paid out for hitting specific activity levels, while Fold members will earn 1.5% in rewards and up to $100 in bonuses.

Cardholders will gain access to a suite of financial services through the Fold app, including the ability to trade bitcoin with zero fees and to take advantage of exclusive bonuses from partner merchants. The app also provides access to FDIC-insured transactional accounts and insured bitcoin custody.

Fold is bringing this new product to market largely due to requests from current users.

“This has been one of the most highly requested products,” Mitch Port, General Manager for Credit and Loans at Fold, told Bitcoin Magazine. “The majority of users like to spend on credit and earn in bitcoin.”

Port also noted that this new credit card is the newest addition to the suite of products that Fold already offers.

“A Fold Debit Card currently gets you access to an account from which you can pay bills, direct deposit fiat or automatically convert paychecks into bitcoin,” he said. “Adding a credit card is a great addition for users that prefer to spend on credit rather than from an existing balance.”

Fold currently has 600,000 users who have earned approximately $75 million worth of bitcoin rewards (which would have been $20 million if rewards were distributed in US dollars). With the combination of its current user base and this new credit card, Fold hopes to make bitcoin the new standard for credit card rewards.

"Fold has already empowered hundreds of thousands of users to incorporate bitcoin into their daily lives,” said Fold founder and CEO Will Reeves in a press release shared with Bitcoin Magazine.

“With this credit card, we aim to dethrone miles as the go-to credit card reward. If the top miles cards can process 1% of US GDP, we’re confident the Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card can reach the same heights,” he added.

“We’re building the hub of personal finance, powered by bitcoin, to ensure everyone has the tools to earn, save, and grow their wealth with bitcoin every day.”

Fold is issuing this new credit card as the company prepares to list on the NASDAQ as the first publicly-traded Bitcoin financial services company. Fold also has a top 25 bitcoin treasury among public companies, as it holds over 1,000 bitcoin in its reserves. Its initiative in accumulating bitcoin aligns with its mission to make bitcoin the cornerstone for personal savings for millions of Americans.

Those interested in obtaining a Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card can join the waitlist here.

In July of last year, Swiss privacy tech company Proton (makers of Proton Mail) announced it would be launching its own bitcoin wallet — Proton Wallet.

I (along with about 100,000 other users) was given early access to the wallet to test it out and was impressed with the wallet’s user interface. I particularly liked that it allows you to link a user’s email address to their bitcoin address so that you only need to input the email address when sending bitcoin.

You can read my review of the wallet here.

Now that the wallet is available to the general public, I will recommend it to anyone I know who’s finally ready to move their bitcoin out of the hands of an exchange and into their own custody. I’ll also recommend it to anyone looking to make semi-regular bitcoin payments on-chain with a relatively small amount of bitcoin.

My reasons for recommending the wallet are as follows:

• It’s free to use (users can create up to three wallets and have up to three accounts in each wallet, which is sufficient for most users — more on that here; to create more wallets or accounts, Proton charges a fee)
• It’s easy to set up (you aren’t required to write down the 12-word seed phrase when you set up the wallet; however, it’s good practice to do so!)
• Like Proton Mail, Proton has no access to Proton Wallet user data, nor does it have access to its users’ private bitcoin keys
• Using an email address (which doesn’t have to be a Proton Mail address) to send bitcoin reduces the likelihood of inputting the wrong bitcoin address into the recipient field of a transaction
• You can select the priority speed of a transaction when sending bitcoin
• You can purchase bitcoin via Ramp or Banxa using Proton Wallet, enabling the bitcoin you purchase to be transferred directly into your custody

The only downsides to the wallet is that it doesn’t support Lightning transactions (consider the Breez SDK, Proton team!), and it doesn’t let you manage your UTXOs (loose change from bitcoin transactions, in layperson's terms).

The latter isn’t super important, though, as, again, I’d recommend this wallet to those new to bitcoin self custody. UTXO management is more of a practice for moderate to advanced Bitcoin users.

All in all, Proton has created yet another fine product here for its 100 million users and counting, and it’s one that I’ll be recommending to Bitcoin newbies moving forward.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

El Salvador is still Bitcoin country, despite the fact that bitcoin is no longer legal tender in the country — at least from where I’m sitting.

Let’s start with some background on the matter.

On January 29, 2025, the Legislative Assembly in El Salvador voted to remove bitcoin’s status as legal tender.

This means that businesses in the country no longer have to accept bitcoin (not that this rule was ever strictly enforced while bitcoin was classified as legal currency, as far as I know; however, I have been told that big businesses that operate in the country (e.g., McDonalds, Walmart) may stop accepting bitcoin as payment now, which could have a detrimental effect on adoption).

This change occurred approximately one month after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) struck a deal with authorities in El Salvador that stipulated the following:

• El Salvador would receive a $1.4 billion loan to support the government’s “reform agenda”
• Bitcoin-related risks be mitigated; bitcoin acceptance in the private sector must be voluntary, while the public sector’s participation in Bitcoin-related activities would be “confined” (bitcoin can no longer be used to settle government debts or pay taxes)
• Operations for the government-created Bitcoin wallet, Chivo, would be “unwound”

While the news of the Salvadoran government’s reversing its policy on bitcoin as legal tender as a result of influence from the IMF feels like a gut punch even to me, someone who isn’t Salvadoran and doesn’t live in the country, I can’t help but believe that El Salvador is still Bitcoin country.

And this feeling has only grown stronger based on what I’ve seen Bitcoiners in El Salvador posting on X.

Evelyn Lemus, co-founder and Director of Education at Bitcoin Berlin, a Bitcoin circular economy within the country, doesn’t plan to stop teaching everyday Salvadorans about Bitcoin.

Just saying it out loud.

Bitcoiners will not stop teaching about Bitcoin and making the adoption happen just because Bitcoin is not legal tender anymore. This means we need to keep pushing harder and keep doing what we do ????????

LFG????
Bitcoin in the hands of people ???? pic.twitter.com/hnMpJmL5c7

— Evelyn Lemus (@Evelynlemus2906) February 2, 2025

The team at Bit Driver don’t plan to change their business model — accepting bitcoin as taxi fare — any time soon.

We're still a Bitcoin a company.

— Bitdriver (@bitdriver_sv) February 2, 2025

While John Dennehy, founder of Mi Primer Bitcoin, expressed concern about the government of El Salvador’s rolling back its policy on bitcoin as legal currency, he and the ever-growing team at Mi Primer Bitcoin plan to double down on the work they’re doing.

Good morning from El Salvador!

We are now in DAY NINE since the government rescinded Bitcoin as legal tender, at the request of the IMF (effective after 90 days)

This means grassroots, independent Bitcoin education is now MORE important than ever

In response, at… pic.twitter.com/iTXdf0gAoL

— John Dennehy (@jdennehy_writes) February 7, 2025

The legendary Max and Stacy haven’t publicly voiced any plans to give up on El Salvador anytime soon.

And El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, run by Stacy, is still stacking bitcoin and helping to run Bitcoin education programs in the country.

????????EL SALVADOR STACKS ANOTHER 1 BTC TO STRATEGIC RESERVE

El Salvador is still stacking.

Every day.

➡️Total SBR Holdings: 6,071.18 BTC
➡️Total Added Today: +1 BTC
➡️Total Added Past 7 Days: +22 BTC
➡️Total Added Past 30 Days: +60 BTC… pic.twitter.com/y4kv2693BX

— The Bitcoin Office (@bitcoinofficesv) February 7, 2025

The lesson here is that while the law around Bitcoin may have changed in El Salvador, the Bitcoiners on the ground in the country have hardly flinched.

Because we are Bitcoin, what matters most is that everyday Salvadorans and everyone else involved in the Bitcoin movement in El Salvador continues to push forward with the Bitcoin mission.

The IMF may have landed a blow, but Bitcoiners in El Salvador remain steadfast in their efforts to foster broader Bitcoin adoption.

El Salvador is still Bitcoin country.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The Official Bitcoin EVERYTHING Indicator

Why We Need a Comprehensive Indicator

Investors and analysts typically rely on various metrics, such as on-chain data, technical analysis, and derivative charts. However, focusing too much on one aspect can lead to an incomplete understanding of Bitcoin’s price movements. The Bitcoin Everything Indicator attempts to solve this by integrating key components into one clear metric.

View Live Chart ????

The Core Components of the Bitcoin Everything Indicator

Bitcoin's price action is deeply influenced by global liquidity cycles, making macroeconomic conditions a fundamental pillar of this indicator. The correlation between Bitcoin and broader financial markets, especially in terms of Global M2 money supply, is clear. When liquidity expands, Bitcoin typically appreciates.

View Live Chart ????

Fundamental factors like Bitcoin’s halving cycles and miner strength play an essential role in its valuation. While halvings decrease new Bitcoin supply, their impact on price appreciation has diminished as over 94% of Bitcoin’s total supply is already in circulation. However, miner profitability remains crucial. The Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue relative to historical averages, provides insights into market cycles. Historically, when miner profitability is strong, Bitcoin tends to be in a favorable position.

View Live Chart ????

On-chain indicators help assess Bitcoin's supply and demand dynamics. The MVRV Z-Score, for example, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap (average purchase price of all coins). This metric identifies accumulation and distribution zones, highlighting when Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.

View Live Chart ????

Another critical on-chain metric is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which examines the profitability of coins being spent. When Bitcoin holders realize massive profits, it often signals a market peak, whereas high losses indicate a market bottom.

View Live Chart ????

The Bitcoin Crosby Ratio is a technical metric that assesses Bitcoin’s overextended or discounted conditions purely based on price action. This ensures that market sentiment and momentum are also accounted for in the Bitcoin Everything Indicator.

View Live Chart ????

Network usage can offer vital clues about Bitcoin’s strength. The Active Address Sentiment Indicator measures the percentage change in active addresses over 28 days. A rise in active addresses generally confirms a bullish trend, while stagnation or decline may signal price weakness.

View Live Chart ????

How the Bitcoin Everything Indicator Works

By blending these various metrics, the Bitcoin Everything Indicator ensures that no single factor is given undue weight. Unlike models that rely too heavily on specific signals, such as the MVRV Z-Score or the Pi Cycle Top, this indicator distributes influence equally across multiple categories. This prevents overfitting and allows the model to adapt to changing market conditions.

Historical Performance vs. Buy-and-Hold Strategy

One of the most striking findings is that the Bitcoin Everything Indicator has outperformed a simple buy-and-hold strategy since Bitcoin was valued at under $6. Using a strategy of accumulating Bitcoin during oversold conditions and gradually selling in overbought zones, investors using this model would have significantly increased their portfolio's performance with lower drawdowns.

For instance, this model maintains a 20% drawdown compared to the 60-90% declines typically seen in Bitcoin’s history. This suggests that a well-balanced, data-driven approach can help investors make more informed decisions with reduced downside risk.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin Everything Indicator simplifies investing by merging the most critical aspects influencing Bitcoin’s price action into a single metric. It has historically outperformed buy-and-hold strategies while mitigating risk, making it a valuable tool for both retail and institutional investors.

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Over the course of the last week, we’ve seen reports of massive bitcoin liquidations.

For those unfamiliar with the term “liquidation” as it applies to finance, it refers to when a trader is forced to close a leveraged trade because the margin for the trade has been depleted.

In everyday pleb terms, it’s when someone borrows money to bet on the direction of the price of bitcoin and they get it wrong, resulting in their losing the money they put up for the trade (or more, in some cases).

When it comes to trading bitcoin with leverage, I keep in mind the first line from the post below:

A fool and his leveraged #bitcoin are soon parted.

To quote one of my teachers, “up 6% today, down 100% tomorrow.”—@aantonop

To quote another, “#notyourkeysnotyourcoins”

Be careful out there. @michaeljburry is right—there’s a lot of hidden leverage in #bitcoin. Caveat emptor.

— Caitlin Long ????⚡️???? (@CaitlinLong_) June 20, 2021

So, lesson number one in investing in bitcoin is don’t do so with leverage. (Not financial advice.)

Even now that bitcoin has about a $2 trillion market cap, it’s still a highly volatile asset. Its price fluctuates notably in response to news. Because of this, it’s much safer to just buy some bitcoin on the spot market and hold it for the long run (at least four years).

What is more, when and if you choose to buy some bitcoin in the spot market, consider remaining underexposed to bitcoin instead of overexposed to it (those terms are subjective; interpret them as you will).

When you’re overexposed to bitcoin, or if you’re new to the market and you’ve gone all in on bitcoin, it’s more likely that you’ll panic sell if its price tanks in the short term.

How will you know if you’re overexposed? You’ll likely begin losing sleep over it and/or being investing emotional energy in hoping that bitcoin’s price moves in a certain direction (up only).

I share this based on experience. I was overexposed to bitcoin in 2021-2022, and I often felt sick because of it. Once I lessened my exposure, I felt better and was able to think more clearly.

Find an investment threshold with which you’re comfortable, and, again, plan to hold for the long haul.

Aiming to get rich quick with bitcoin is nearly a sure fire recipe for getting yourself rekt.

Take it slow, and heed the very wise advice of legendary Bitcoiner Matt Odell: stay humble, stack sats.

(The inverse of such sage advice would be: be irrational, bet on bitcoin irresponsibly.)

Be careful out there.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Recently, Flashnet announced that it had raised a $4.5m seed round, led by Abstract Ventures with participation from UTXO Management and others.

Flashnet is a Bitcoin native DEX based on Spark (a Bitcoin L2 designed between the Flashnet team and LightSpark). It’s designed to rival the performance of a (Centralized Exchange) CEX with none of the custody.

Spark enables instant and unlimited self-custodial transactions of Bitcoin and tokens while also enabling users to send and receive natively via Lightning. It's open-sourced and secured by Bitcoin. Spark was built to address Bitcoin and Lightning's remaining challenges, focusing on scaling self-custody wallets and enabling stablecoins on Bitcoin.

I’m personally a fan of recent L2 proposals like Ark or Spark trying to complement LN instead of trying to replace it. Having this burgeoning scaling ecosystem opens up the design space for something great — obsoleting Uniswap and bringing all the fees to Bitcoin. This is why I’m so adamant about the utility of Bitcoin Finance (BTCfi) for Bitcoin.

Of course, the question remains, are we really talking about a “Decentralized” exchange here?

From the documentation available, here’s how Flashnet would work:

• When a user places a limit or market order, they send funds to an MPC (Multi-Party Computation) wallet, where the user, the exchange, and a set of validators act as signers. Funds in the MPC wallet are not claimed until a match is made, similar to how approvals work in Ethereum. For market makers and high-volume actors, there's an option to keep funds in the MPC wallet to avoid the need for a Spark transaction for each order, in which case they become validators, incurring a bit more trust.

• The MPC wallet receives signed maker/taker orders to settle trades and initiate fund dispersals. All validators must agree on the user's intent to match with the counterparty order, ensuring that a limit order for 100 BTC is only valid if the counterparty order matches or exceeds 100 BTC. This intent is known because of the user-signed orders submitted at order placement.

• All trades are settled instantly and atomically on Spark through its native atomic swap mechanism. Trust is only required during the brief interval between matching and settlement, which lasts only a few milliseconds. Additionally, users can unilaterally exit the MPC at any time using Spark's unilateral exit feature, providing an extra layer of security.RFQ offers are also available for wallets, mining pools, and platforms, enabling users to request quotes from market makers for seamless BTC<>Token swaps.

This development not only complements Lightning but also pushes Bitcoin's ecosystem towards greater adoption and utility, showcasing why the resurgence of investment in Lightning-adjacent technologies is a positive sign for Bitcoin's future.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Guillaume's articles in particular may discuss topics or companies that are part of his firm’s investment portfolio (UTXO Management). The views expressed are solely his own and do not represent the opinions of his employer or its affiliates. He’s receiving no financial compensation for these Takes. Readers should not consider this content as financial advice or an endorsement of any particular company or investment. Always do your own research before making financial decisions. 

In an economic landscape increasingly characterized by monopolization and the dominance of institutionalized credit, innovative technologies and protocols are emerging that have the potential to change the foundations of our economy and society.

At the forefront of this are Bitcoin and Nostr—two groundbreaking protocols that together can usher in a new era of innovation, free from the financial constraints of the fiat system. This article examines the history and mechanisms that enable Bitcoin and Nostr to act as catalysts for innovation and human progress.

Innovation under Hard Metal Currencies

In the days of hard metal currencies, especially during the gold standard, innovation was primarily driven by individuals and private companies who were independent of the state apparatus and institutional lenders. Some of the greatest breakthroughs in science, philosophy and economics were made by private entrepreneurs.

• In 600 BC, a Greek named Thales observed that amber, when rubbed with silk, attracted feathers and other light objects. He discovered static electricity. The Greek word for amber is 'ëelectron', from which the words 'electricity' and 'electron' are derived.
• The Greek philosopher Plato (ca. 428-347 B.C.) is widely considered to be the first person to develop the concept of an atom, the idea that matter is made up of an indivisible component on the smallest scale. He also wrote a number of important books on science, philosophy, economics, politics and mathematics.
• Wei Boyang was a Chinese writer and Taoist alchemist of the Eastern Han dynasty. He is the author of The Kinship of the Three (also known as Cantong Qi), which is considered the earliest book on alchemy in China, and is noted as one of the first individuals to document the chemical composition of gunpowder in 142 AD.
• The car was invented in 1886 by German engineer and automobile manufacturer Carl Benz, who was inspired by Nikolaus Otto, who invented the first gas engine in 1861.
• The Wright brothers are considered the inventors and the first to fly a powered airplane on Dec. 17, 1903, in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina.
  
  The creativity and ingenuity of the Wright brothers has been well documented:

The funds for the brothers' ventures, including equipment, travel, and their testing site in Kitty Hawk, came from the bicycle shop they operated. They apparently spent just $1,000 over four years (1899-1903) to develop three flying machines, two of which had no engines. The Wright brothers lived during a time when the U.S. was on a gold standard, and saving allowed entrepreneurs to accumulate enough capital to finance innovations, giving them the time and resources needed to pursue their pioneering work in aviation. The ancient Greeks, such as Thales and Plato, also operated under hard metal currencies, contributing to a stable economic environment that fostered philosophical and scientific advancements.

Similarly, Wei Boyang exemplified the pursuit of knowledge during the Eastern Han dynasty in China, which experienced fluctuating monetary conditions, including periods of stability that contributed to intellectual growth in various fields.

Just as the Wright brothers benefited from a time when saving in sound money allowed individuals to focus on their innovations, today's private entrepreneurs, startups, and bicycle shop owners find it increasingly difficult to earn enough to take the time to think about innovations and finance their implementation.

Inflation has significantly driven up labor and material costs, particularly in industries like aviation and automotive, where advanced technology and greater material requirements demand extensive research and development. As a result, entrepreneurs and freelancers often rely on third-party loans. The average cost of developing a Mercedes car today, for example, is more than two billion euros.

How the Fiat System Blocks Human Progress

The fiat-based monetary system has made it increasingly difficult for innovation to emerge without institutional funding. Monetary inflation erodes purchasing power, limits financing options, and creates obstacles for new ideas to flourish. This is problematic because the institutions that typically fund innovation, including large venture capital firms, banks, and universities, are mostly dependent on the state in one way or another (either because they are regulated by law or because they receive government funding) and therefore have an incentive to support projects that ‘follow’ the current political climate.

The result is a banal misallocation of capital and social stagnation, as can be observed in most countries around the world.

Credit, Fiat and the State Monopoly on Innovation

Credit has become part of a system of control that nation states use in conjunction with fiat money to maintain their monopoly position. Historically, technologies and social movements that undermined the monopoly power of the state and its affiliated institutions were typically banned. At the very least, there was usually an attempt to do so.

A good example is the way Bitcoin is treated by most states, how poorly it is spoken of in most universities, and how most banks used to consider it speculation at best. Because Bitcoin threatens the existence of these institutions. This behavior is generally observed among monopolists and initially makes it difficult for entrepreneurs to enter new disruptive markets like Bitcoin and shifts competition in favor of the monopolist (the state).

Money creation and the granting of credit are fundamental to maintaining the state's monopoly position. As a result, the reliance on the institutionalized credit system to finance innovation has led to a dependence on a central authority (the state). This disrupts the progress and prosperity of humanity that results from a free market in which capital and information can be freely exchanged and suppresses the collective creativity of humanity.

Bitcoin and the weakening state monopoly on innovation

With the introduction of Bitcoin in 2009, the state monopoly on money was broken. Due to its limited supply and excellent monetary properties (absolute scarcity, durability, fungibility, divisibility, mobility, resilience, self-custody), bitcoin is the hardest money ever created. This allows entrepreneurs to preserve the value of their efforts, giving them time and, in the long term, capital to focus on problems and find and fund appropriate solutions. Which, in turn, creates opportunities for innovation to emerge from the free market in a bottom-up manner.

Innovation and communication

Innovation, especially in the age of the Internet, requires more than capital and people with time. There is a need for efficient and secure real-time communication and collaboration options for people around the world. Communication and collaboration are crucial for efficiently solving increasingly complex problems in a connected world.

Cunningham's Law states that the best way to get the right answer on the Internet is not to ask a question; instead, to post the wrong answer because others will correct you. This underscores the importance of collective intelligence. The law is named after Ward Cunningham, who invented the Wiki software that allows users to create and collaboratively edit web pages or entries via a web browser. The most famous example is wikipdia.com.

Nostr: Communication as a tool for innovation

In late 2019, Lightning developer named Fiatjaf published his ideas on a censorship-resistant social network he called Nostr - “Notes and Other Stuff Transmitted by Relays”. With the actual launch of Nostr shortly after, a protocol that adds a layer of censorship-resistant information-sharing to the Bitcoin and Lightning protocol suite, a new territory of freedom opened up in the same tech-stack as Bitcoin and Lightning.

Although there were a number of other decentralized communication networks besides Bitcoin before Nostr (Bittorrent, Limewire, Napster, etc.), in my view none of them had the potential to have a universal long-term impact on collaboration to solve complex problems facing humanity. Nostr has the potential to enable bottom-up innovation and rapid problem-solving that no one can keep a lid on. With Nostr, market participants can communicate, collaborate, and reward each other in real time globally, more independently of nation-state control.

Even though individual applications that use Nostr can be switched off, the protocol itself cannot be effectively controlled or turned off by a central party.

The first widely used application of Nostr is a censorship-resistant social network that can be accessed through various clients. The most commonly used ones include Damus, Primal, Amethyst and Iris. The usability of each client is largely optimized for desktop or mobile. The network structure is similar to the way one can access the IMAP email protocol through various clients such as Gmail, Yahoo Mail, etc. (simplified example). Applications connect to many Nostr relays that are run by network participants with technical know-how. These relays distribute information, so if one relay fails, there are others that continue to run. The relays operate largely independently of each other, giving the network resilience because there is no central point of failure.

Although Nostr is not based on the Bitcoin blockchain, it utilizes peer-to-peer bitcoin payments via the Lightning Network. With Zaps, users can pay each other or tip posts they particularly like. People can now successfully save in bitcoin, communicate via Nostr, and transact with each other through Lightning—potentially independent of any central authority.

Even though. For a long time, I struggled to define the purpose of Nostr beyond its function as a "decentralized X." However, I eventually realized that the possibilities are nearly endless. Nostr is a protocol for a freer Internet and society, poised to become the gateway to a truly free Internet. In this new landscape, we have the opportunity to innovate faster and reward ingenuity, making way for a more empowered and interconnected world.

There are countless Nostr applications currently being built. Nostrocket, for example, is a client designed to coordinate decentralized, Bitcoin-based economies by rewarding (in satoshis/bitcoin) contributors who work together to find solutions to global challenges. The application uses censorship-resistant communication via Nostr and direct bitcoin payments via the Lightning Network to help create economically sustainable organizations that solve problems on the critical path to a global Bitcoin standard. Nostrocket founder Gsovereignty is a very active member of the Nostr community and worth following.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin protocol was created as an alternative to the fiat system. A decentralized, permissionless peer-to-peer electronic cash system, outside the reach of the state. Satoshi Nakamoto created arguably one of the most important innovations by a private individual or group of people that humanity has ever produced, because he/they laid the foundation for anyone to be able to trade and act independently of the state. As a solid foundation for a freer economy, the Bitcoin network enables other network layers to “dock” to the base, creating new ways to use bitcoin and opportunities for users. The Lightning Network, as a second-layer payment protocol for fast transactions and micropayments, partially addresses the problem of how to scale Bitcoin so that it can be used by all of humanity.

The introduction of Nostr creates a new territory of freedom within the same protocol suite as Bitcoin and Lightning, enhancing Bitcoin's usability for diverse applications. By facilitating seamless communication and collaboration, Nostr further aids in scaling Bitcoin, empowering us to innovate faster and reward ingenuity. With Nostr, innovation can potentially emerge from the free market again, and ingenuity can be rewarded once more. Thus, Bitcoin, Lightning, and Nostr provide a protocol suite for a freer Internet and society, with Nostr poised to become the gateway to a truly free Internet.

The use cases for Nostr seem endless. I invite you to explore the possibilities of the protocol.

I would like to thank Uncle R0ckstar for the inspiring conversations and encouraging words.

Follow me on Nostr 

This is a guest post by Leon Wankum. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

The report dives into multiple factors of Bitcoin’s use as a payment mechanism. It dissects different use cases, regulatory treatments received in different jurisdictions, services and platforms with existing integration of Lightning payments, etc.

Case studies are included looking at specific businesses and the volume of transactions or userbase they have provided access to Bitcoin for. Mercari, a major Japanese marketplace similar to Amazon, accepts bitcoin. Mullvad VPN, Namecheap, and Protonmail are all instances of digital businesses benefiting from bitcoin payments.

While the Bitcoin digital gold narrative is running strong, Bitcoin’s use as a payment mechanism is growing quietly in the background. Storing value may be a necessary component of Bitcoin’s use in commerce, but the ultimate purpose it was created for was to transact with.

Read the report here for more details on how Bitcoin’s transactional use is going through a quiet renaissance. 

In fact, public policy responses to regulatory and legislative inquiries have consistently reaffirmed these basics: Bitcoin’s strength is open-source software, self-custody, and a wide distribution of mining and node operators. In other words, it’s not about selling out. It’s about ensuring our governments understand the benefits of Bitcoin’s open design.

There’s a difference between “Bitcoin was built for a hostile environment” and “we should want a hostile environment.” Having an adversary-resistant architecture doesn’t demand that we sit back and ignore opportunities to reduce friction, whether in energy policy or everyday user experience. Yes, Bitcoin can and will survive if politicians and regulators turn hostile. But it’s short-sighted to treat hostility as a virtue.

Hostility might slow adoption, push development offshore, or scare away everyday users who aren’t ready for that level of conflict. Meanwhile, measured engagement with policymakers can prevent draconian bans, shape balanced regulation, and offer legitimate pathways for institutional capital to flow in—all of which can speed up global usage of Bitcoin. It’s not a betrayal of Satoshi’s vision to say, “We’d like Bitcoin to flourish under transparent, fair laws.” We want people to choose Bitcoin, not be forced into it by some catastrophic breakdown of the legacy system.

There is nothing “un-Bitcoin” about encouraging legislation that protects individuals’ rights to use and hold their own BTC, or that supports open-source development. We should be unapologetically active in these political arenas, because ignoring them won’t make them go away. It would only allow others—perhaps with very different agendas—to set the rules in ways that hamper privacy, hamper self-custody, or hamper innovation.

The key is remaining vigilant against compromises that undermine the protocol’s integrity. Building relationships with politicians or regulators doesn’t mean we’re begging for favorable carve-outs at the expense of censorship resistance. It simply means we’re making our voices heard. If we see demands for forcing protocol-level changes that are hostile to users, that’s where we must stand firm and say “No” for both practical and ideological reasons. But proactively sharing how Bitcoin mining can stabilize energy grids or how Lightning Network can provide near-instant payments is not a concession of Bitcoin’s ethos. It’s part of a rational strategy to help the public and policymakers understand the real value behind Bitcoin’s existence.

Misguided concerns about large mining operations kowtowing to regulatory pressure are not new. The reality is, Bitcoin’s design remains adversary-resistant: anyone can mine if they have the hardware and energy, and anyone can run a full node to enforce the rules, ensuring that no single miner can change the protocol. If some mining pools bend to censorship demands, other pools are attracted by fees to include those transactions. That’s exactly how Bitcoin is designed: routing around censorship with an anti-fragile, decentralized architecture.

Ironically, positive regulatory engagement can reduce centralization risks if it opens more states, countries, and smaller energy providers to hosting mining facilities. Diversity of geography and jurisdiction means no single entity or government can easily impose sweeping rules on the entire network. Again, “hostile environment survival” doesn’t mean turning away from pragmatic solutions that help decentralize hashrate.

It is true that privacy, scalability, and accessibility remain pressing challenges. This isn’t an either/or proposition: we can both engage with regulators to stave off ill-informed policy and focus on advancing privacy-preserving features and scaling solutions. The key is not to let the everyday politics overshadow the work that needs to be done on second-layer technologies like the Lightning Network or more user-friendly privacy solutions.

Developers are actively tackling these issues, from better cryptography to more intuitive Lightning wallets. We should be championing—publicly and politically—initiatives that keep self-custody at the forefront and keep third-party custodians optional. Spreading knowledge of “not your keys, not your coins” at the legislative level isn’t selling out; it’s ensuring that more people (including politicians) actually grasp the fundamental reasons Bitcoin matters.

It’s easy to look at the ecosystem—full of corporate players, lobbying efforts, and social media theatrics—and think it has lost its soul. But Bitcoin has always been full of diverse voices, many of which care about short-term profit. That was true in 2011, it was true during the block-size wars, and it’s true now. It hasn’t destroyed Bitcoin. The network’s fundamental robustness ensures that, if you want to hold your own keys and validate your own transactions, nobody can stop you.

The central promise of Bitcoin hasn’t evaporated, and participating in policy doesn’t have to mean capitulation. It’s simply another stage in Bitcoin’s evolution, one where we actively shape a better environment for the technology and the people who benefit from it. We should embrace that fight wholeheartedly, defend Bitcoin’s fundamentals, and keep building toward a future where censorship-resistant, peer-to-peer digital money is the global norm—not just a contingency plan for hostile conditions.

This is a guest post by Pierre Rochard. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

The son of the current President two days ago on Twitter told people it's time to add Ethereum to their balance sheets. It is mind blowing to see this, given what this cycle represents for Ethereum.

For years people have been predicting the outcome we are seeing play out this cycle. Ethereum’s dominant use case has been as a platform for issuing other assets, and building applications focused on assets other than ether itself. This becoming the dominant use of the network has obvious implications for the necessity of the Ethereum network itself to operate these other applications and assets.

Bitcoiners have consistently pointed this out, and predicted that other cheaper and more centralized networks with the same functionality would eventually obsolete Ethereum, as the chief value proposition of the network in the market has proven not to be Ethereum or ether itself. That is exactly what we see playing out right now with Solana absorbing activity from Ethereum, for everything from memecoins to DEXes now.

This isn’t a new thesis, this isn’t some novel niche idea hidden from the light of day, it is something loudly predicted for half a decade or more. Yet the “orange pilled” son of the President is here publicly stating it’s time to add ETH.

I think this should in a very crystal clear manner demonstrate that none of the Trump family or new administration are “orange pilled” at all. All they have been shown is the opportunity to make money, and they will follow their incentives. That realistically leads to shitcoining.

Shitcoining is the most profitable short-term thing in this space. They will follow the path to easy money. I think this is the cold hard reality that some Bitcoiners don’t want to accept, people are in most cases not better than their incentives. We are not going to have some kind of grand spiritual “Bitcoin awakening” in government. We are just going to see the incentives we’ve watched play out in multiple cycles play out at a larger scale than we ever have before.

What’s amazing to me is how so many Bitcoiners thought sticking our nose into the government would go any other way. We opened the door, and the shit got dragged in behind us. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

The fund is expected to be based in Switzerland and BlackRock could begin marketing it as early as this month, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. Though, at the time of writing, a BlackRock representative declined to comment on the matter.

This listing would mark yet another step in BlackRock's international expansion of its Bitcoin-related offerings, as the firm has already launched spot Bitcoin ETFs in both Canada and Brazil. 

BlackRock appears eager to build on the success of its U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, which became the "greatest ETF launch in history," amassing over $50 billion in assets under management in just its first year of being live.

JUST IN: Bloomberg says BlackRock’s spot #Bitcoin ETF is the ‘Greatest Launch in ETF History’ ???? pic.twitter.com/12aft5q8th

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 30, 2024

At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that he is a "big believer" in Bitcoin, and that its price could run up to $700,000 if more asset allocators start buying it, and if there is more fear of currency debasement, political and economic instability. 

JUST IN: $11.5 trillion BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says Bitcoin could go up to $700,000 if there is more fear of currency debasement and economic instability.pic.twitter.com/WOXclAsjDP

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 22, 2025

Date Founded: March 2023

Location of Headquarters: Lithuania

Number of Employees: 3 full-time, 3 contract workers

Website: https://bringin.xyz/

Public or Private? Private

With Bringin, it’s now easier than ever to live on a bitcoin standard in Europe.

The web app (and soon-to-be-released mobile app) enables users to almost instantly convert bitcoin from either a base chain or Lightning wallet to a virtual Visa debit card that can be used wherever Visa is accepted.

Bringin’s founder Prashanth Chandrashekar conceptualized the product after struggling to convert his bitcoin into euros.

“Two years ago while living in Estonia, I used to get paid in bitcoin, and it took almost four days to liquidate the bitcoin and get euros into Revolut to spend,” Chandrashekar told Bitcoin Magazine.

[Author’s note: When Chandrashekar uses the term “liquidate,” he’s referring to converting bitcoin into fiat.]

“That's why I wanted to build a tool that allows users to liquidate Bitcoin. I think liquidating bitcoin instantly and being able to use bitcoin is one of the key factors for getting the value of bitcoin into the world today,” he added.

What Chandrashekar and his team have built is comparable to a service like Bitrefill, though more dynamic, and it has more capabilities.

How Bringin Works

Bringin operates in all countries that use the euro, and it lets users convert bitcoin in a Lightning wallet into euros in under a minute. (On-chain transactions take longer, approximately 10 minutes, as they need to be confirmed on the blockchain.)

To most efficiently convert bitcoin into euros, users simply pay a Lightning invoice denominated in the amount of euros they want on their virtual debit card and those euros become available for spending soon after.

On the back-end, the process looks like this: Bringin issues each of its users a virtual IBAN (International Bank Account Number). This number is then used to interface with the SEPA system, which enables users in the Euro Zone to make cashless euro payments.

Using SEPA Instant Credit Transfers, which enable transfers of up to 15,000 euros in under 10 seconds, in conjunction with Lightning payments, users can convert their bitcoin into euros in almost no time flat.

Chandrashekar illustrated how quickly this all takes place in a recent X post:

I just Booked a cab with SATs on my @getAlby node!

Using @bringinxyz debit card!

Living on Bitcoin standard has never been easier than now!

Pre-order one for yourself today! You will get access in days.

Link ???? user code BTCTOTHEMOON to get 10% off ???? pic.twitter.com/fliHbS6Z6J

— Prashanth (@prashanthc123) January 31, 2025

Users must go through the KYC process to use the service, though, Bringin never custodies user funds, which means that Bringing users can opt to use non-custodial Bitcoin or Lightning wallets.

“You can use your Alby Hub and liquidate directly into the debit card using Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC),” explained Chandrashekar. “We’ve created a more direct link between your self-custody wallet and your bank account.”

The Road To Bringin

Chandrashekar began developing Bringin in September 2022 (though, he didn’t incorporate until March 2023).

Before working on this product, he was employed by the now defunct Lastbit, which aimed to solve a similar problem.

“We were building consumer-facing payment applications for Europe,” said Chandrashekar. “The application allowed users to buy bitcoin instantly, make and receive Lightning payments, and we also shipped a MasterCard debit card that could be funded with Lightning transactions.”

Chandrashekar shared that the project was scrapped, though, due to a number of difficulties.

“Unfortunately, we couldn't scale the service,” he said. “We were too early, and there were a lot of compliance hurdles.”

Not wanting to give up on creating a product like Lastbit, Chandrashekar moved to Estonia with some members of the Lastbit team, obtained the proper licenses and began building Bringin.

“Lastbit pivoted from building a consumer application to being more of an infrastructure company, providing tool links for other companies to build on top of it,” explained Chandrashekar.

So, at that time, I was still working with the company and helping them with the infrastructure, but I felt the need to build a consumer product that allowed people to do what Lastbit initially aimed to accomplish,” he added.

“So, I hopped out and started my own venture to help consumers and other Bitcoiners who had a problem like mine.”

A Third Generation Exchange

Bringin not only serves as a bitcoin off-ramp, but an on-ramp, as well.

“Users can use Lightning addresses to buy Bitcoin,” explained Chandrashekar. “Today, you can go to Bringin, enter “10 euros,” “prashant@alby.com,” “Send funds” and the sats appear in your Alby Hub.”

(Users can connect with any wallet that supports NWC. Bringin also enables transfers using Blink wallet, and intends to expand their integrations, according to Chandrashekar.)

Because Bringin can facilitate these types of seamless transactions between non-custodial wallets and the traditional banking and payment rails, Chandrashekar conceptualizes Bringin as a “third generation” exchange.

“There have been multiple generations of exchanges,” he began.

“Originally, we saw all kinds of exchanges where you place a limit order, check the order book and make a purchase. That evolved into a mobile wallet like Venmo, which is custodial, where you instantly swap for bitcoin. That was the second generation of exchanges,” he added.

“Bringin is a third generation exchange, because it's not a custodial solution where you put funds and then swap it and the bitcoin stays in the custody of the exchange. It allows not only for instant swapping, but also takes care of movement of funds from the banking system to the Bitcoin and Lightning networks.”

Bringin’s Roadmap

Moving forward, Chandrashekar plans to streamline Bringin’s operations while broadening the services the platform offers.

Currently, Bringin works with a partner business to issue and manage debit cards, but Chandrashekar would like to change that.

“Right now, we are a distributor and technology provider, and we don't have direct partnership with Visa, so we white label our partner’s debit cards,” explained Chandrashekar. “But we eventually want to get our direct partnership with Visa.”

Chandrashekar also looks forward to onboarding more merchants, as the company already makes it easy for businesses to begin employing Bringin.

“We have integrations with BTCPay Server and Opago Pay,” said Chandrashekar. “Merchants can receive Bitcoin payments and instantly convert a part of it or the whole payment into euros via a Bringin IBAN account."

And Chandrashekar is working to partner Bringin with a bitcoin borrowing and lending platform.

“The intent here is that the users can provide bitcoin as collateral and receive loans in euros,” he explained, adding that most Bitcoin borrowing and lending services only offer loans in US dollars or US dollar stablecoins.

Beyond these plans, Chandrashekar remains motivated to continue to improve Bringin’s on-ramping technology.

“You need to get bitcoin into your favorite wallet, and there's a huge amount of friction there,” he said. “Our intention is to get bitcoin to everyone by allowing users to get bitcoin directly into the wallet of their choosing with no friction whatsoever, directly from the bank.”

In his opening remarks, Sacks shared that “the President said in his executive order in the first week that it’s the policy of his administration to support the responsible growth and use of digital assets, blockchain technology and related technologies across all sectors of the economy.”

He also reminded the audience that in that executive order, the President established both a working group for digital assets as well as a mandate for the group.

“Our objective is to accomplish the task the President assigned for us in his EO, which is to propose a Federal regulatory framework governing the issuance and operation of digital assets, including stablecoins, in the United States,” said Sacks.

The "Golden Age" For The Bitcoin And Crypto Industry Begins

Sacks also contextualized the significance of this new administration’s not being antagonistic to the Bitcoin and crypto industry, especially in light of what transpired under the Biden administration.

“I’ve talked to many founders over the last few years and they’ve told me repeatedly that the number one thing they need from Washington is regulatory clarity,” he said.

“They just want to know what the rules of the road are so they can abide by them. We’re coming off frankly four years of arbitrary prosecution and persecution of crypto companies where the SEC wouldn’t tell founders what the rules were and then they would prosecute them. Many founders even told me stories of being debanked personally just because they had founded a crypto company,” he added.

Before concluding his opening remarks, Sacks noted that he looks forward to working with the politicians hosting the conference alongside him — Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee; Congressman French Hill (R-AR), Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee; Senator John Boozman (R-AR), Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee; and Congressman G.T. Thompson (R-PA), Chairman of the House Committee on Agriculture — in “creating a golden age for digital assets.”

Senator Scott began by stating that this “golden age has begun” and that “the good news is that it’s going to get better.”

He also noted that he plans to “work synergistically with the House and the Senate, with the White House leading the way” when it comes to passing bills on digital assets.

The U.S. At The Forefront Of Bitcoin And Crypto Innovation

Rep. Hill stressed that the United States should be leading the way, not falling behind when it comes to the digital asset industry.

“We don’t want to be behind in financial technology and digital assets in the United States, [and] our innovators need clarity,” said Rep. Hill. “They need to know what the rules of the road are.”

He also stated that he’s forming a working group between the House Financial Services Committee, the Senate Banking Committee, the House Agriculture Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee to craft a clear regulatory framework.

Senator Boozman highlighted the fact that not all crypto assets are the same (without necessarily singling bitcoin out).

“Some assets are commodities, some are securities,” said Senator Boozman, who noted that different regulatory agencies should oversee different crypto assets accordingly.

Rep. Thompson walked the audience through the stages of the Internet, pointing out the fact that the internet today has become the “Internet of value.”

“America really was the leader when it came to Internet 1.0, and [with] Internet 2.0, again, it was America that led that for the world,” said Rep. Thompson. “Internet 3.0 is what we’re talking about today, and that’s the Internet of value — and we’re approaching it in a principled way.”

This “principled way” includes protecting consumers while still offering innovators in the Bitcoin and crypto industry space to foster innovation, according to Rep. Thompson.

“The opportunities [in crypto] are unimaginable,” said Rep. Thompson. “I know that [David Sacks] is laser focused on bringing certainty to digital asset markets.”

During a question and answer session, Senator Scott noted that bipartisan efforts are being made around crypto in the Senate.

“Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) and Kirsten Gillibrand are coming together for the market structure bill,” he said.

Comments On Anti-Money Laundering Regulation

When asked about reconsidering Anti-Money Laundering (AML) laws as they pertain to crypto, Senator Scott said he’s open to it.

“I think that the broader conversation should not be about digital assets alone,” said Senator Scott. “It’s about bad actors doing bad things by any means necessary.”

Rep. Hill chimed in regarding AML regulations, stating that they should exist, much like they do in the analog financial space.

Educational Efforts

Rep. Thompson brought up the importance of educating those in the House and Senate about crypto assets, given that it’s still a relatively new subject.

“Member education is what our first goal is here,” he said.

Rep. Hill echoed his sentiment.

“A key element now is the education and technical assistance that can be provided to members both in the House and Senate,” he said.

Sacks also offered his thoughts on this topic.

“Part of what we’re here to do is provide resources on education,” he said, adding that some of the educators can be “luminaries in the industry.”

As Sacks spoke on this topic, he also differentiated between Bitcoin and all other crypto assets and networks.

“Crypto can be an esoteric subject, and it is good to explain it, to demystify it,” said Sacks. “You’ve got the cryptocurrency itself like bitcoin, [and then other assets that] run on blockchains, which are just distributed ledgers.”

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Before the conference concluded, Sacks also addressed the prospect of the U.S. creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

“One of the things that the President instructed us to do was to evaluate the idea for a Bitcoin reserve,” said Sacks. “So, that is one of the first things we’re going to look at as part of the internal working group in the administration.”

Real Estate: The Illusion of Stability

Real estate has long been regarded as a safe haven for preserving wealth. However, the housing market is not immune to systemic risks such as interest rate hikes, government intervention, and economic downturns. Moreover, property investments often require significant maintenance costs, taxes, and liquidity sacrifices.

Bitcoin, in contrast, offers unparalleled portability, resistance to confiscation, and immunity from local economic or geopolitical disruptions. Unlike property, Bitcoin has no maintenance costs or physical constraints.

The Rise of Bitcoin as a Store of Value

Bitcoin's limited supply of 21 million coins establishes it as "digital gold" for the 21st century. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has consistently outperformed other asset classes, delivering exponential returns despite volatility.

In comparison, real estate’s appreciation is often tied to inflation and government monetary policy, which can diminish its true value over time. Bitcoin, on the other hand, operates on a deflationary model, ensuring scarcity and preserving purchasing power.

Liquidity and Accessibility

Real estate investments often require lengthy transactions, high fees, and significant regulatory hurdles. Selling a property can take months, tying up capital and reducing agility. Bitcoin, however, offers instant liquidity and can be traded 24/7 on global exchanges. This accessibility empowers investors to move their wealth seamlessly across borders.

The data underscores Bitcoin’s ability to preserve and grow wealth more effectively than traditional property investments.

Hedging Against Inflation

Real estate prices often mirror inflationary trends but fail to outpace them significantly. Bitcoin, designed as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation, has demonstrated its resilience in inflationary periods. As central banks continue to print money at unprecedented rates, Bitcoin’s finite supply ensures its value is protected from monetary debasement.

Flexibility for Modern Investors

Today’s investors prioritize flexibility and global access. Real estate is a localized, illiquid asset that limits mobility. Bitcoin, by contrast, is borderless and allows for decentralized ownership without reliance on traditional financial systems. This feature is especially attractive to younger, tech-savvy investors who value freedom and control.

A Bold Vision for the Future

Bitcoin is more than just a speculative asset; it’s a financial revolution. By embracing Bitcoin, smart investors position themselves at the forefront of this paradigm shift. As Bitcoin adoption grows, its value proposition becomes increasingly clear: a robust, deflationary asset designed for the modern economy.

Conclusion

While real estate has historically been a cornerstone of investment portfolios, Bitcoin offers a transformative alternative that aligns with the demands of a rapidly evolving global economy. For those seeking to preserve wealth, hedge against inflation, and capitalize on groundbreaking technology, Bitcoin is the asset of choice. The question is no longer “Why Bitcoin?” but rather “Why not Bitcoin?”

If you’re interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out Bitcoin Magazine Pro for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

I just sat down and watched this debate between Jimmy Song and Jameson Lopp on Bitcoin ossification. I don’t even know where to start as far as the absurdity and broken “logic” in every argument Jimmy made in this debate. So I won’t try, I will focus on one specific line of argumentation he made.

“Money shouldn’t change, it should be predictable.”

He specifically spoke along these lines in regards to “letting things mature” in this space from a technical point of view, and implicitly stating that upgrades to Bitcoin “pulls the rug out from under” existing developers building things.

Does Jimmy not understand how Bitcoin upgrades work? We have been using softforks for over a decade specifically to address the concern of backwards compatibility. i.e. being able to say with 100% certainty that everything that has been built to date will continue functioning in exactly the same way. All upgrades to Bitcoin are opt-in, everything that existed prior will work just fine and nothing needs to be changed to support new functionality if a developer or user doesn’t want to.

There is zero technical basis to Jimmy’s statements or arguments along these lines whatsoever. New functionality enabling the construction of new protocols or tools does nothing whatsoever to inhibit the continued functioning of pre-existing systems.

So what is he saying? To me it essentially sounds like an argument for economic protectionism. There is zero threat, risk, or problem created for pre-existing systems after an upgrade except for the possibility that superior systems could be constructed after an upgrade and users would choose to use those instead. That is the only coherent argument to be drawn out of those statements.

So are we seriously at the point where “pro-ossificationists” are arguing for protectionist decision making for existing investments in current layers and systems?

Watch for yourself and decide: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUO10-HcdvY

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

For an in-depth complete analysis, refer to the original Has The Bitcoin Price Already Peaked? full video presentation available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro's YouTube channel.

Bitcoin's Current Market Performance

Bitcoin recently faced a 10% retracement from its all-time high, leading to concerns about the end of the bull market. However, historical trends suggest that such corrections are normal in a bull cycle. Typically, Bitcoin experiences pullbacks of 20% to 40% multiple times before reaching its final cycle peak.

Analyzing On-Chain Metrics

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-score, which measures the market value to realized value, currently indicates that Bitcoin still has considerable upside potential. Historically, Bitcoin’s cycle tops occur when this metric enters the overheated red zone, which is not the case currently.

Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

This metric reveals the proportion of spent outputs in profit. Recently, the SOPR has shown decreasing realized profits, suggesting that fewer investors are selling their holdings, reinforcing market stability.

Value Days Destroyed (VDD)

VDD indicates long-term holders’ sell-offs. The metric has shown a decline in selling pressure, suggesting that Bitcoin is stabilizing at high levels rather than heading into a prolonged downtrend.

Institutional and Market Sentiment

• Institutional investors such as MicroStrategy continue accumulating Bitcoin, signaling confidence in its long-term value.
• Derivatives market sentiment has turned negative, historically indicating a potential short-term price bottom as over-leveraged traders betting against Bitcoin may get liquidated.

Macroeconomic Factors

• Quantitative Tightening: Central banks have been reducing liquidity, contributing to the temporary Bitcoin price decline.
• Global M2 Money Supply: A contraction in money supply has impacted risk assets, including Bitcoin.
• Federal Reserve Policy: There are indications from major financial institutions, including JP Morgan, that quantitative easing could return by mid-2025, which would likely boost Bitcoin’s value.

Related: Is $200,000 a Realistic Bitcoin Price Target for This Cycle?

Future Outlook

• Bitcoin’s price action is showing signs of entering a consolidation phase before another potential rally.
• On-chain data suggests there is still significant room for growth before reaching cycle peaks seen in previous bull markets.
• If Bitcoin experiences further pullbacks to the $92,000 range, this could present a strong accumulation opportunity for long-term investors.

Conclusion

While Bitcoin has experienced a temporary retracement, on-chain metrics and historical data suggest that the bull cycle is not over yet. Institutional interest remains strong, and macroeconomic conditions could shift in favor of Bitcoin. As always, investors should analyze the data carefully and consider long-term trends before making any investment decisions.

If you’re interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out Bitcoin Magazine Pro for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Today, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published an article attempting to discredit Bitcoin amidst the recent US, Canada, and Mexico tariff trade war, because bitcoin’s price has gone down in the wake of the news.

“Bitcoin — touted as a borderless, digital store of value — is down more than 4% over the last 24 hours, after the White House instigated cross-border tariffs,” the article stated. “Cryptocurrencies were once promoted as investments that act independently of stocks, but in fact their moves often resemble outsized versions of broader market swings.”

In the second sentence cited above, the WSJ attempts to diminish bitcoin’s value proposition by pointing out that bitcoin’s price is just correlated with other traditional assets.

What the author of the article doesn’t share, though, is that bitcoin’s price is going to go down, and up, much more so than traditional assets, because it’s incredibly liquid, and it’s easy to buy and sell. But Bitcoin is a distributed network made up of miners, nodes, developers, and users — on a technical level, it is quite different from other assets like stocks, as it has no central party controlling it.

Because of this, bitcoin has been a safe haven for those trying to navigate geopolitical fears. No one can just print more bitcoin out of thin air and inflate the supply, enforce any unwanted network changes overnight, or overthrow and stop the network from running.

But don’t just take my word for it, take Larry Fink’s, the CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock. Just a couple of weeks ago, Fink said that he is a true believer in Bitcoin’s value proposition and that if you’re frightened of the geopolitical fears in your country, you can now have an international-based asset that operates completely independently from those tensions.

JUST IN: $11.5 trillion BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says Bitcoin could go up to $700,000 if there is more fear of currency debasement and economic instability.pic.twitter.com/WOXclAsjDP

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 22, 2025

Sure, Bitcoin’s price will respond to news and events happening in the short term, causing large price actions to the upside or downside, but cherrypicking data in an attempt to make bitcoin look like it’s a bad investment is just bad reporting and misleading. Bitcoin has been the best performing asset of the last 15 years, and will likely continue to perform well due to its value proposition.

The important point to understand here is that while Bitcoin is a volatile asset reacting to daily events, over the long term, bitcoin’s value proposition is what takes its price higher and higher. For the first time in history, we have money that can not be hyperinflated. Bitcoin also allows people to transact across borders freely, without permission, giving users an escape hatch for anyone whose country is attempting to control them financially.

Forget short term price when it comes to bitcoin as a tool to help navigate geopolitical tensions. Over the long term, Bitcoin’s supply and demand will take the price higher than it is today. Mainstream media articles on Bitcoin have always missed the bigger picture and end up misleading the people who read them. As geopolitical tensions increase, bitcoin is the safest asset you can own.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

However, this trend raises concerns about the future rights of Bitcoin holders, as greater government oversight and institutional involvement could transform Bitcoin from the cypherpunk’s dream of decentralized, peer-to-peer currency into just another financial asset.

In the 2024 election cycle, cryptocurrency corporations have spent over $119 million to influence federal elections, with nearly half of all corporate political donations this year coming from the crypto sector. These funds have been channeled primarily into a non-partisan super PAC, Fairshake, which supports pro-crypto candidates and opposes crypto skeptics. Crypto companies are now the largest corporate political spenders, surpassing even Koch Industries, which has contributed significantly but remains far behind in comparison. Since the 2010 Citizens United ruling, crypto corporations have spent $129 million, making them the second-largest corporate election spenders after fossil fuel companies. This unprecedented level of spending reflects the industry's push to shape regulations in its favor.

With the election over, there is an anticipated push for states to adopt more crypto-friendly policies, including allowing public pension funds and treasuries to invest in Bitcoin. Some state pension funds such as Wisconsin and Michigan have already added Bitcoin ETFs to their portfolios. In November, Representative Mike Cabell introduced the Pennsylvania Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act, proposing that the state treasurer allocate up to 10% of Pennsylvania's General Fund, Rainy Day Fund, and State Investment Fund into Bitcoin. Following this in December, Texas Representative Giovanni Capriglione proposed a bill for a strategic Bitcoin reserve to be held for at least five years in a cold wallet and in Ohio Representative Derek Merrin has a bill for the creation of a Bitcoin fund in the state Treasury and grants the state Treasurer with discretionary power to purchase Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, some U.S. states have taken the lead in cryptocurrency and blockchain regulation. Arizona has considered legislation to define Bitcoin as legal tender and permit state agencies to accept cryptocurrency payments. Oklahoma has enacted laws affirming rights to self-custody cryptocurrencies and engage in digital asset mining. Pennsylvania's House passed a bill securing rights to self-custody digital assets and conduct cryptocurrency transactions and Louisiana now has provisions for node operation and home digital asset mining. Recently eighteen U.S. states also filed a lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), seeking to halt its enforcement actions on cryptocurrency regulation. The states argue that the SEC is overstepping its authority by attempting to regulate digital assets without explicit Congressional approval. They contend that such regulatory power should reside with individual states. It is unknown if the courts will be favorable to this legal argument.

At the federal level, meanwhile, regulatory clarity is still sadly lacking, and Bitcoin's classification as a commodity rather than legal tender adds further complexity to the regulatory framework. This year the CFTC and SEC have intensified their enforcement actions against cryptocurrency firms continuing an aggressive regulatory approach. Recent legal actions against Tornado Cash and Samourai Wallet show the federal government's concerns with digital assets, such as peer-to-peer transactions and “unhosted" wallets bypassing traditional financial oversight, creating a challenge for AML/CFT (Anti-Money Laundering / Countering The Financing Of Terrorism) enforcement, especially when paired with anonymity-enhancing tools like mixers. While some states have been favorable towards Bitcoin, most have no policy and have just applied existing money transmission laws to virtual currencies, requiring businesses dealing with cryptocurrencies to obtain money transmitter licenses. Without federal clarity Bitcoin and cryptocurrency companies wishing to serve the US market have to navigate a patchwork of different laws across all 50 states, keeping out all except only the most well financed operations.

State level investment marks a significant shift from Bitcoin's origins when it emerged as an alternative to the traditional financial system. Governments and regulators voiced concerns focused on money laundering, tax evasion, and criminal use. Bitcoiners have cheered on the rise of state and corporate strategic bitcoin reserves, but treasury adoption does not necessarily lead to greater rights for holders of bitcoin. Just because governments hold Bitcoin, does not mean that they will suddenly be okay with everyone else holding it or decide to give up the power of the fiat printer. If political priorities follow funding, the crypto sector's primary goal this year appears to be influencing state pension funds and establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves, instead of getting written into law rights to self custody or greater privacy.

The strategic reserve push marks a clear shift from Bitcoin’s anti-establishment origins as a peer-to-peer currency without intermediaries, pushing it toward becoming solely a treasury asset. Currencies do not need third parties, you exchange the currency for the goods and services you want directly. Assets, on the other hand, typically demand third parties. In order to obtain the good or service you must sell the asset for the currency, borrow against the asset, or lend out the asset for a yield. There are tax professionals needed to report the gains and losses, accountants to track the asset and its derivatives, lawyers to draw up the contracts, police and regulators to enforce the contracts, banks to issue, hold, and control the currency, and as always politicians to write the laws and regulations that decide the winners and losers.

Bitcoin as a treasury asset poses no threat to the establishment. It only reinforces the existing system and rewards Bitcoin holders with rising prices. As a treasury asset, Bitcoin is no different from gold, pork bellies, or mortgage-backed securities; just another commodity to be endlessly packaged, derived, and traded. On the other hand, Bitcoin as freedom money that can be held privately and transacted without permission challenges the status quo and can be a powerful tool for financial equality. It empowers the individual over the group, levels the playing field for those excluded from the current financial system, protects people from the robbery of inflation, and actually allows market forces to determine winners and losers. Digital gold stored in secure vaults with financial oversight would address the federal government's concerns about Bitcoin, which would both legitimize it and encourage institutional adoption, but rising prices might blind people to what they would lose in the process if Bitcoin continues to follow this path…

This is a guest post by Will Jager. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

There is no doubt that the last cycles of elections worldwide, particularly in the U.S., have revealed several “elephants in the room” filled with hypocritic actions, psychological experiments subjecting the proletariat to new forms of manipulation, and through control under the guise of misinformation. The post-Cold War world moved from a good versus evil exposé to a world void of the enemies required to feed the West’s military-industrial-political establishment. In such a void, the illuminati in power sought a new nemesis to ensure the continuance of their power base, a foe that was easier to manipulate. The new opponent became the populus themselves.

What one may overlook is that this passage to dominate the proletariat began long before the Cold War ended. It grew from the seeds of the many self-serving efforts to improve the educational systems of the West, from the guises to protect “non-sophisticated” investors from making their own financial decisions that may tread on Wall-Street, and from the pretext to save democracy, the dollar and the market system.

The False Fiat Victory

Today, the military-industrial-political establishment claims an implicit near total victory over the 99% built on a series of skirmishes that stretch back to the 1980s, where the battles began in earnest. They were the era of deregulation, Wall-Street wolves, and the rise of financial engineering that one might alternatively call the Perestroika of money. I view the 1980s as the turning point for Western civilization. The period looked so good coming off the stagflation, economic and political decline, and war-torn and hostage-filled 1970s. However, the socio-monetary battles that ensued aimed to squash Plebians spanning from dominating their means of education, wealth creation, transport, eating and working habits and thoughts, among other areas.

If you don’t accept that the 1980s imposed such vast societal changes on us, consider that it held the birth of PEOPLExpress, the first low-cost airline where, we, the public was told that this was the future for aviation and travel with no more reserved seats or meals. The decade saw the rise of finance as the number one area of study selected by the college-age generation. Graduates were taught to forget “real” work as the future revolved only around moving money from A to B. Our food chains jumped over the cliff and continue the decline well into the 90s and beyond with innovations such as “Olestra”, the fat substitute that not only claimed to reduce your calorie intake, but offer you a side of abdominal cramping and loose stools as was printed on the warning label of all products containing it. And, for the tree-huggers reading this, the decade saw the disappearance of glass bottles replaced by the Tetra Pak plastic generation.

While I reference a glut of ground shaking actions in the 1980s, one of the most important movements was the nuisances imposed over our educational systems. These impositions gave birth to long-lasting negative consequences in the ability of individuals to have rational thought, express tolerance, and show decision-making ability. Teaching “self-esteem” in schools without earning it became the mantra. Giving a reward for just “trying” became 35% of your college syllabus grade. Recall that this California-created crusade reasoned that increasing people’s self-esteem could reduce crime, poverty, pollution, global warming, and most social evils. Yet, they never mentioned that it could “fix the money” or “fix the world”. Rather than educating the masses on practicality and rationality, the masses are taught to just pat themselves on the back. This change in mentality, this revision to the social and educational orders in the 1980s, I postulate, were the triggers to the downfall of global societal norms and values and subsequently financial literacy.

“The losers are the true winners”

Over the subsequent decades, the movements I highlight have imposed damage to the ensuing generations impacted financial literacy among other societal norms. We now see the results of these, perhaps, well-intentioned, yet misguided programs resulting in the frustration we have, as we try to educate not only youth, but grown adults about Bitcoin.

I recall a phrase I heard on a TV sitcom once that will go unnamed for risk of a copyright transgression: “The losers are the true winners.”

Is this the current world we want?

Sorry for my rant but as Shakespeare said: “I rant, therefore I am”. If you’re depressed at this point in my tirade, either take a pill, a nap or grow a pair….or some other fruit and plod forward.

“Rotten” Orange…..Pilling

What is wrong with investors and markets today? They are the TikTok investor generation who decide that they can make investment decisions and quick money after spending 14-hours a day scrolling the app as a replacement to the mediocre quality of university "education" in practical finance. Today’s investors think they are immune to the past. They know it all. Somehow knowledge learned from history no longer matters beyond their 5-years of work experience at a Big-4 consulting firm after obtaining a dual business/fourth-century art history degree paid from $200,000 of student loans.

The Wall-Street-political-media industrial complex added to investor “dumifiction”. They did this through tribulations like the manipulation of Libor, gold market collusion, and the Madoff Ponzi that gave birth to pure mistrust of all established financial or mathematical impetus regardless of its foundation or its potential source of learning. Politically motivated misinformation further fed the fire advocating that inflation is “good for you” and recessions don’t exist as previously known. Global political powers also added their bits telling you to be “green or die”.

"A fool and his money are soon parted" was the adage. Yet, today, the fool earns at the expense of the rational.

To this ratatouille of the miss-guided and ill-informed current investor generation, global central bank money printing presses since the 1980s added their drug through the creation of a glut of liquidity. Arm the TikTok investor with liquidity and in the words of Alan Greenspan “irrational exuberance” results. Investors believe falsely that they are experts in portfolio theory, risk management, and investing. The liquidity glut has run rampant through the TikTok generation faster than a Fauci/Gates inspired virus.

In other words, these Rotten Oranges over the last decades have created today's irrational money management mentality. The Dunning–Kruger effect has incentivized throwing money at “Shitcoins” rather than Bitcoins.

Moneyzine.com reported that the percentage of US adults with poor financial literacy stood at 25% in 2023, that Gen Z and Gen Y have the lowest financial literacy rates among US generations, at 38% and 45% respectively, and that 48% of teens say they learn about personal finance on social media.

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn said that: “Human beings are born with different capacities. If they are free, they are not equal. And if they are equal, they are not free.”

But can a value proposition, a monetary revolution overcome such a dilemma?

Would Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn ever have hypothesized that his words could be applied to our desire to break free of Fiat hegemony?

Can Bitcoin offer human beings a great equalizer and personal freedom at the same time?

From Rotten Oranges to Orange Blossoms

Educating the new generation not only on Bitcoin but also re-educating the masses on financial common sense needs to be a priority. Practicality must again prevail versus likes earned on Instagram. The Robinhood’s of today need to stop learning finance on TikTok and study historical context. Regarding Bitcoin the intrepid Greg Foss said it’s “just math”.

The “soft spoken” Max Keiser also said: “We must continue to educate the masses and encourage savings in Bitcoin to truly drain the kleptocratic swamp ruling our financial system.”

Even “God’s Banker” could not escape being the wrath of the non-common-sensical Fiat world with his demise under just one bridge too far.

Without financial common sense as written by Benjamin Franklin in "The Way to Wealth",

"We are taxed twice as much by our idleness, three times as much by our pride, and four times as much by our folly"

Are you ready to re-awaken to the needed reality or be taxed four times?

This is a guest post by Enza Coin. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Often, when I speak with everyday Bitcoiners — plebs, if you will — they share with me that they’re torn between carrying on with their “fiat job” and getting more involved in the Bitcoin space on a professional level.

I usually tell them that they can start by incorporating Bitcoin into what they currently do for a living, though, I haven’t had a great example of someone doing this that I can point them to — until this morning.

When it’s time for the clients of osteopath Rob Shaw, based in Essex, UK (just outside of London), to pay him for his services, he presents them with the option to pay with British pounds or bitcoin via a Musqet PoS device.

First Bitcoin payment accepted with @Musqet_Bitcoin POS terminal.

This device reduces traditional payment fees and also enables Bitcoin transactions.

Learn more by listening to this @Princey21M podcast. #Bitcoin ???????? https://t.co/8Ac9VgOopL pic.twitter.com/VHBa4mmERM

— Chelmsford Osteopathic Practice (@essexosteopath) May 29, 2024

(Please note he doesn’t go into a lesson on Bitcoin’s underlying technology or the principles of Austrian economics as he does this.)

Rob shared that here and there a client will act surprised when presented with the option to pay with bitcoin but that most simply make their choice between the two and proceed with making their payment.

Rob’s efforts have led to two of his clients now regularly paying in bitcoin, and he also provides a touchpoint for those who have yet to begin paying with it.

In this way, Rob is a Bitcoin bridge.

(And, ironically enough, it was an organization called Bridge 2 Bitcoin that introduced Rob to Bitcoin as a payment technology for his business.)

He’s subtly introducing people to Bitcoin, giving them the option to cross over into Bitcoin land in the process.

Some might call this “orange-pilling” (a term I don’t like much because it feels too coercive), but I’d argue that this is a more refined way to present bitcoin to people. In offering it as an official payment method for professional services, it legitimizes Bitcoin and prompts those unfamiliar with it to begin viewing it in a new light.

If professionals around the world employed such an approach, Bitcoin adoption would accelerate notably.

So, instead of feeling that you have to drop whatever you’re doing for work to join the Bitcoin industry full-time, consider being a bridge to Bitcoin and bringing the Bitcoin industry to what you’re already doing.

Be like Rob, be a Bitcoin bridge!

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Proven Strategy To Sell The Bitcoin Price Peak

Why Selling Isn’t Always Taboo

While some, like Michael Saylor, advocate never selling Bitcoin, this stance doesn’t always suit individual investors. For those not managing billions, taking partial profits can offer flexibility and peace of mind. If Bitcoin peaks at, say, $250,000 and faces a fairly conservative 60% correction, it would revisit $100,000, creating a chance to reenter at lower levels than we’ve already seen.

The goal isn’t to sell everything but to strategically scale out of positions, maximizing returns and managing risks. Achieving this requires pragmatic, data-driven decisions, not emotional reactions. But again, if you never want to sell, then don’t! Do whatever works best for you.

Key Timing Tools

This Active Address Sentiment Indicator (AASI) compares changes in network activity to Bitcoin’s price movement. It measures deviations between price (orange line) and network activity, shown by green and red deviation bands.

View Live Chart ????

For example, during the 2021 bull run, signals emerged when the price change exceeded the red band. Sell signals appeared at $40,000, $52,000, $58,000, and $63,000. Each provided an opportunity to scale out as the market overheated.

The Fear and Greed Index is a simple yet effective sentiment tool that quantifies market euphoria or panic. Values above 90 suggest extreme greed, often preceding corrections, such as in 2021, when Bitcoin rallied from $3,000 to $14,000, the index hit 95, signaling a local peak.

View Live Chart ????

The Short-Term Holder MVRV measures the average unrealized profit or loss of new market participants by comparing their cost basis to current prices. Around 33% profit levels often mark reversals and local intracycle peaks, and when unrealized profits exceed around 66%, markets are often overheated and may be close to major cycle peaks.

View Live Chart ????

Related: Bitcoin Deep Dive Data Analysis & On-Chain Roundup

The Bitcoin Funding Rates reflect the premiums traders pay to maintain leverage positions in futures markets. Extremely high funding rates suggest excessive bullishness, often preceding corrections. Like most metrics, we can see that counter-trading an overly euphoric majority usually provides an edge.

View Live Chart ????

The Crosby Ratio is a momentum-based indicator that highlights overheated conditions. When the ratio enters the red zone on the daily chart, or even lower timeframes if you use our TradingView version of the indicator, market turning points have typically occurred. When these signals occur in confluence with other top-marking metrics, it solidifies the probability of a larger-scale prediction.

View Live Chart ????

Conclusion

Timing the exact top is virtually impossible, and no single metric or strategy is foolproof. Combine multiple indicators for confluence and avoid selling your entire position at once. Instead, scale out in increments as key indicators signal overheated conditions, and consider setting trailing stops tied to key levels or a percentage of price movement to capture additional gains if price rallies even higher.

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Czech National Bank (CNB) is considering adding Bitcoin to its national reserves, with Governor Aleš Michl proposing to allocate up to 5% of the country’s €140 billion reserves to the cryptocurrency. If approved, this move would make the CNB the first Western central bank to hold Bitcoin. Michl argues that Bitcoin could serve as a diversification tool amid growing global interest in crypto investments, particularly after the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs by major financial institutions like BlackRock.

The CNB board has yesterday approved an internal analysis to assess the potential risks and benefits of holding Bitcoin as part of its reserves. This analysis will inform the final decision, but no immediate changes will be made until the review is complete. While there's no specific timeline, it’s reasonable to anticipate that the CNB’s analysis and subsequent decision-making process could take several months. Since the CNB board has the authority to decide on reserve composition, no legislative approval is required at this stage. However, if broader policy changes or additional oversight measures are deemed necessary, further regulatory discussions may follow. The outcome of this process will determine whether the Czech Republic takes a pioneering step in Bitcoin adoption at the central banking level.

Of course, not everyone is convinced. Critics argue that Bitcoin’s volatility makes it an unreliable reserve asset, with prices fluctuating dramatically over short periods. Czech Finance Minister Zbyněk Stanjura has warned that the central bank should prioritize stability, not speculation. But volatility alone does not disqualify an asset from being part of a diversified reserve—after all, the Czech National Bank already holds gold, foreign currencies, and bonds, all of which carry their own risks. Yes, Bitcoin is volatile, but so is the Euro when central banks print trillions. Bitcoin, despite its price swings, has been the best-performing asset of the last decade and is increasingly recognized as a hedge against excessive monetary expansion and inflation. The Eurozone’s ongoing struggles with debt and inflation only strengthen the argument for Bitcoin’s inclusion. By holding a small allocation of Bitcoin, Czechia is not betting recklessly—it is taking a calculated step to ensure financial resilience in an era of growing economic uncertainty.

Christine Lagarde recently dismissed the idea of Bitcoin becoming a reserve asset in the European Union, but here’s the key detail—Czechia is in the EU, but not in the Eurozone. Unlike countries that must follow the European Central Bank’s policies, Czechia has its own currency, the Czech koruna (CZK), and a fully independent central bank. This means the Czech National Bank is free to make its own monetary decisions, including adding Bitcoin to its reserves. While Brussels resists, Prague can lead.

For many, this proposal seems radical. But for those who understand Czechia’s past, it feels like the natural next step. My home country is a nation of DIY thinkers—people who know that if you don’t do it yourself, no one will. We have always had to figure out how to survive and keep our freedom because it has been taken from us so often. It just makes so much sense that Bitcoin resonates here. When you grow up listening to your grandfather’s stories at Christmas dinner—stories about how his land and house were seized by the communist regime, only to be neglected and ruined by state cooperatives—you understand. When you hear about your relatives fleeing abroad, leaving all their possessions behind, sewing the last of their inherited gold into their coats just to have a chance to survive in the West, you really get it. You want to have something that no one even knows you have—something no one can take from you.

Czechia’s innovation in Bitcoin is no coincidence. The world’s first Bitcoin mining pool (Slush Pool, now Braiins) was founded in Prague, along with the first-ever hardware wallet, Trezor. Recently, the government took a progressive step by eliminating capital gains tax for long-term Bitcoin holders, making it easier for citizens to build generational wealth. This doesn’t happen on its own—it’s the result of relentless work by Bitcoiners in Czechia, who are constantly pushing boundaries, educating not just individuals but also policymakers, politicians, and governors. Despite the ongoing debates on what constitutes a grassroots approach, in my opinion, there is no better example of a bottom-up strategy. We often complain that policies don’t make sense and are unfair, but what do we do to change them? We buckle up, explain, educate, and make clear what we want, what we will vote for, and where we draw the line.

This isn’t just about Bitcoin—it’s about securing our place in Europe and reaffirming our role in the Western world. The CNB’s proposal to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset could cement Czechia’s reputation as a European leader in innovation—and, let’s be honest, finally give this small nation access to Bitcoin at the price it deserves. Unlike resource-rich nations that rely on oil or vast agricultural exports, Czechia has always depended on ingenuity, craftsmanship, and strategic thinking. We don’t have liquid gold under our feet, and we cannot ‘drill, baby, drill.’ We do not have vast, fertile lands. But we have our minds and our hands, and in this highly competitive race, that is how we will secure our future.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Earlier today at the Plan B Conference in El Salvador, Tether made an announcement that has been years in the making. USDT is back on Bitcoin using Taproot Assets.

The next steps will be for Tether to mint the asset, which will be available initially via Bitfinex.

Tether's return to the Bitcoin ecosystem via Taproot Assets is not just a simple re-entry; it's a strategic pivot that could herald a new era for both Bitcoin's Lightning Network (LN) and the broader stablecoin landscape. 

With USDT now returning to the Bitcoin network in a way that's also interoperable with Lightning (it has no direct impact on bitcoin the asset - except that it’s massively bullish), users can enjoy the benefits of near-instant, low-fee transactions, which are critical for the practical use of stablecoins in everyday commerce or remittances. The integration is particularly beneficial in regions where financial infrastructure is either lacking or prohibitively expensive.

Having said that, the Lightning Network is probably not capable of handling the activity and user flow happening on competing chains like Solana or Tron. There's also the question of how well the Lightning Network will handle the increased load of stablecoin transactions without degrading performance or leading to centralization of node operations due to the need for higher liquidity.

The answer to this lies in one simple variable: Good infrastructure - and this is where Joltz comes in.

Also present at the Plan B conference, Joltz's early bet on Taproot Assets now looks prescient. Joltz introduces some notable advancements in the Bitcoin infrastructure ecosystem with its unique features. It's one of the only self-custodial mobile wallets supporting Taproot Assets, enabling users to manage multi-asset payments and swaps directly on Bitcoin. Beyond the standalone wallet, Joltz offers a software development kit (SDK) that could be integrated by other developers, reducing the time and cost involved in adding support for these assets, as well as Bitcoin on-chain and Lightning transactions. This could be beneficial for existing crypto wallets, asset issuers, stablecoin platforms, fintechs, payment apps, and exchanges, offering them a pathway to enhance their services with less development effort. Developers who want early access to the Joltz SDK can sign up here.

Similar to how Trump promised to free Ross on Day 1, we should demand that USDT be supported everywhere on Day 1, with good UX. Joltz will deliver on that - hopefully leading the way for others to see the scale of the opportunity that lies ahead for Bitcoin.

Now: Why should you even want stablecoins on Bitcoin?

The recent surge in meme coin activity on Solana has led to significant network congestion, pushing transaction fees to record highs. Solana's daily fee revenue hit nearly $78 million in late 2024, a direct result of the meme coin boom, but this came at the cost of higher transaction fees and occasional network congestion, challenging the user experience. Similarly, Tron has faced its own challenges with transaction fees. Tron's daily fee revenue has been reported to surpass $5 million, reflecting its significant role in handling stablecoin transactions but also highlighting the pressure on its heavily centralized network. We want those fees on Bitcoin, for miners and routing operators.

LN offers nearly infinite scalability by allowing transactions to occur off-chain, only settling on Bitcoin when necessary. This approach contrasts starkly with the scalability struggles of single-layer blockchains like Solana and Tron.

Furthermore, with LN, there's potential for new financial products. Locking Bitcoin within Lightning channels can open up yield-generating opportunities like liquidity provision (leasing) or even more complex financial instruments related to routing, providing users with new ways to generate NATIVE Bitcoin Yields not based on questionable practices. (Also see my recent report on Bitcoin Stablecoins.)

The announcement today underscores a broader lesson in the crypto space: while specific chains like Solana and Tron have made strides in speed and cost, true scalability requires time and a lot of investment into infrastructure to guarantee decentralization and trustless exit: otherwise what’s the point? Centralized chains lead on Stablecoins is temporary - Bitcoin is forever.

Tether's return to Bitcoin through Taproot Assets signifies a vote of confidence in Bitcoin's evolving capabilities. It's a testament to the innovation within the Bitcoin space and a reminder of how foundational technologies like Bitcoin can adapt and expand to meet new demands despite the yapping of high-time preference critics of LN focused on chasing distractions instead of true utility (meow).

This move could very well set the stage for further innovations in decentralized finance (DeFi) on Bitcoin (BTCfi), reshaping how we think about Bitcoin as the ultimate Settlement Layer for all types of economic activity.

Welcome back Tether! <3

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Guillaume's articles in particular may discuss topics or companies that are part of his firm’s investment portfolio (UTXO Management). The views expressed are solely his own and do not represent the opinions of his employer or its affiliates. He’s receiving no financial compensation for these Takes. Readers should not consider this content as financial advice or an endorsement of any particular company or investment. Always do your own research before making financial decisions.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, recently posed an intriguing question: Can Trump’s Executive Order break crypto’s four-year cycle? His answer, though nuanced, leans towards an emphatic yes.

The Four-Year Cycle: A Recap

Hougan clarifies his personal belief that the four-year Bitcoin market cycle is not driven by Bitcoin's halving events. He states, "People try to link it to bitcoin’s quadrennial ‘halving,’ but those halvings are misaligned with the cycle, having occurred in 2016, 2020, and 2024."

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been historically driven by a mix of investor sentiment, technological breakthroughs, and market dynamics. Typically, a bull run emerges following a significant catalyst—be it infrastructure improvements or institutional adoption—which attracts new capital and fuels speculation. Over time, leverage accumulates, excesses emerge, and a major event—such as regulatory crackdowns or financial fraud—triggers a brutal correction.

This pattern has played out repeatedly: from the early days of Mt. Gox’s implosion in 2014 to the ICO boom and bust of 2017-2018, and most recently, the deleveraging crisis of 2022 with the collapse of FTX and Three Arrows Capital. Yet, every winter has been followed by an even stronger resurgence, culminating in Bitcoin's latest bull run spurred by the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024.

Related: Nasdaq Proposes In-Kind Redemptions for BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF

The Executive Order: A Game Changer

The fundamental question Hougan explores is whether Trump’s recent Executive Order, which prioritizes the development of the digital asset ecosystem in the U.S., will disrupt the established cycle. The order, which outlines a clear regulatory framework and even envisions a national digital asset stockpile, represents the most bullish stance on Bitcoin from any sitting or former U.S. president.

The implications are profound:

• Regulatory Clarity: By eliminating legal uncertainty, the EO paves the way for institutional capital to flow into Bitcoin at an unprecedented scale.
• Wall Street Integration: With the SEC and financial regulators now pro-crypto, major banks can enter the space, offering Bitcoin custody, lending, and structured products to their clients.
• Government Adoption: The concept of a national digital asset stockpile hints at a future where the U.S. Treasury could hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset, solidifying its status as digital gold.

These developments will not play out overnight, but their cumulative effect could fundamentally alter Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Unlike previous cycles that were driven by speculative retail euphoria, this shift is underpinned by institutional adoption and regulatory endorsement—a far more stable foundation.

Related: Why Hundreds of Companies Will Buy Bitcoin in 2025

The End of Crypto Winters?

If history were to repeat itself, Bitcoin would continue its ascent through 2025 before facing a significant pullback in 2026. However, Hougan suggests this time may be different. While he acknowledges the risk of speculative excess and leverage-driven bubbles, he argues that the sheer scale of institutional adoption will prevent the kind of prolonged bear markets seen in the past.

This is a crucial distinction. In previous cycles, Bitcoin lacked a strong base of value-oriented investors. Today, with ETFs making it easier for pensions, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds to allocate to Bitcoin, the asset is no longer solely dependent on retail enthusiasm. The result? Corrections may still occur, but they will likely be shallower and shorter-lived.

What Comes Next?

Bitcoin has already crossed the $100,000 mark, and projections from industry leaders, including BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, suggest it could reach $700,000 in the coming years. If Trump’s policies accelerate institutional adoption, the typical four-year pattern could be replaced by a more traditional asset-class growth trajectory—akin to how gold responded to the end of the gold standard in the 1970s.

Related: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Forecasts $700K Bitcoin Price Amid Inflation Worries

While risks remain—including unforeseen regulatory reversals and excessive leverage—the direction of travel is clear: Bitcoin is becoming a mainstream financial asset. If the four-year cycle was driven by Bitcoin’s infancy and speculative nature, its maturation may render such cycles obsolete.

Conclusion

For over a decade, investors have used the four-year cycle as a roadmap for Bitcoin’s market movements. But Trump’s Executive Order could be the defining moment that disrupts this pattern, replacing it with a more sustained and institutionally-driven growth phase. As Wall Street, corporations, and even governments increasingly embrace Bitcoin, the question is no longer if crypto winter will come in 2026—but rather if it will come at all.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough independent research before making investment decisions.

Without a bank account, or the ability to independently store, build and access money, one is not truly free. In many countries around the world, it is a prerequisite to accessing government services, formal employment, registering to vote and setting up a business. Crucially, it is also required for standing in local elections and, thus, being involved in local governance. This means many women, especially in developing nations, are having their basic human rights restricted by a failing legacy financial system that is not fit for purpose in the 21st century.

In Pakistan only 13% of women have a formal bank account compared to 34% of men. Furthermore, the process of opening a bank account for a woman is more complex, in many cases it requires more ID and evidence of permission from a male relative. The picture is not much better across South Asia more broadly, with only 37% of women having bank accounts compared to 55% of men. Things are slightly better in the Middle East, where only 45.5% of women have bank accounts compared to 59.6% of men. Whilst in sub-Saharan Africa, 37% of women have a bank account compared to 48% of men.

Even when women do have bank accounts in many developing nations they are less likely to be regarded as credit worthy compared to men. For example, in India women receive credit equivalent to only 27% of the deposits they contribute, whereas men receive credit equal to 52% of their deposits. Additionally, female entrepreneurs in India receive only 5.2% of the outstanding credit granted to enterprises by Indian public sector banks, even though they have higher repayment rates than men. This perceived lack of credit-worthiness is linked to the fact that women own less property, and other hard assets, that can be used as collateral for loans. This, again, is linked to lower rates of banking.

Given the above, it is fair to conclude that the world is desperate for an alternative to the legacy financial system. This system, it seems, merely reflects the biases and prejudices of the people who run it and so women cannot achieve financial equality without a global social revolution that reconfigures views of women. Whilst such a revolution is desirable, it is highly unlikely to happen in a short space of time and in some places, such as Afghanistan and Iran, the direction of travel seems to be in the wrong direction.

However, the mass adoption of Bitcoin in the developing world could completely transform the economic landscape. A gender blind digital currency that does not require users to ask for permission from family members, and is not tainted by local prejudices and cultural practices that restrict the role of women in society and business, is a game-changer whose time has come. Bitcoin could not only empower women, but uplift society in general since it will give 50% of the population an equal ability to store, build and transact money without any cultural or geographic limitations.

Female entrepreneurs who live in rural areas are often required to visit bank branches in person which can be miles away and potentially unsafe and expensive to access. Bitcoin eliminates this barrier entirely. With just a mobile phone and internet connection, women can receive payments, save money, and participate in global commerce – all from the safety of their homes. Bitcoin's borderless nature benefits women in the informal economy too. Street vendors, artisans, and domestic workers can accept payments digitally without the need for a bank account or government identification. This capability is revolutionary in regions where obtaining official documentation requires male guardianship or navigating complex bureaucratic systems.

Bitcoin's privacy features also provide crucial protection for women in vulnerable situations. In societies where financial abuse is common, the ability to maintain private control over funds can be life-changing. Women can build savings without fear of discovery or confiscation, creating essential safety nets for themselves and their children. The remittance market demonstrates another vital application. Many women in developing countries depend on money sent from family members working abroad. Traditional remittance services often charge excessive fees and require recipients to travel to specific locations during business hours. Bitcoin enables near-instant transfers at a fraction of the cost, allowing women to receive funds directly and securely.

Central to Bitcoin’s revolutionary nature is the concept of self-custody, which means individuals have direct access to their wealth, without any third party involvement. Self-custody also means privacy is maintained and the wealth is accessible from anywhere in the world at any time. When this global accessibility is combined with a form of money that is limited in supply, hence holds value and is resistant to hyperinflation, the transformational power of Bitcoin cannot be understated.

Bitcoin can do for finance what the internet did for information, creating a level playing field in which immutable characteristics play no role in access or usage. As such, when barriers to money are removed, the social conventions that were used to augment these barriers also begin to wither. Self-custody means we take power away from large and decrepit financial institutions that seek to maintain a stagnant status quo. Self-custody means power to the people and power to the women who have struggled to achieve financial autonomy and equality. Self-custody means a better world for all.

This is a guest post by Ghaffar Hussain. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine. 

JUST IN: ???????? Czech National Bank approves proposal to assess investing in additional asset classes, such as Bitcoin.

Yesterday, Czech's National Bank Governor said it's "worth considering" investing in Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/Y2QnddNMCG

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 30, 2025

The approval is a result of the CNB’s ongoing diversification efforts over the past two years, the central bank said. Governor Aleš Michl proposed the analysis, aiming to determine whether Bitcoin could enhance the diversification and returns of the central bank’s reserves. However, the CNB clarified that no immediate changes will occur, and the results of the analysis will guide any future steps.

This announcement comes just a day after Michl revealed intentions to allocate up to 5% of the CNB’s €140 billion reserves to Bitcoin, in an interview with the Financial Times. This allocation could make the Czech Republic the first western central bank to embrace holding bitcoin on its balance sheet. Michl emphasized that Bitcoin specifically could offer an innovative approach to reserve management and diversification.

If implemented, the CNB’s move could set a disruptive precedent for central banks globally, further highlighting the broader shift toward integrating bitcoin into traditional reserve strategies. The central bank said it plans to disclose any adjustments in its quarterly and annual reserve management reports.

Introducing the Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF ($MNRS) ⛏️ , offering investors targeted, pure-play exposure to Bitcoin Miners and the Bitcoin Mining Industry, available directly in your investment account. Learn more below. Brokerage fees and other expenses may still apply.

— Grayscale (@Grayscale) January 30, 2025

Key Takeaways

• Grayscale's Bitcoin Miners ETF (MNRS) targets companies involved in Bitcoin mining and related services.
• The ETF is listed on NYSE Arca and tracks the Indxx Bitcoin Miners Index.
• Investors can gain exposure to the Bitcoin mining ecosystem without direct investment in BTC.

Overview Of The ETF

The Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF aims to provide targeted exposure to companies that derive a significant portion of their revenue from Bitcoin mining activities. This includes firms that offer mining infrastructure, hardware, and software services. The ETF is particularly appealing to investors who may not be ready to invest directly in Bitcoin but still want to participate in the growing market.

Investment Strategy

The ETF will not invest directly in Bitcoin or other digital assets. Instead, it focuses on companies that support the Bitcoin network's operations. The Indxx Bitcoin Miners Index, which the ETF tracks, includes major players in the mining sector, such as:

1. MARA Holdings - 16.65%
2. Riot Platforms - 11.92%
3. Core Scientific - 9.2%
4. CleanSpark - lower weight
5. Iren - lower weight

These companies are crucial for maintaining the security and integrity of the Bitcoin network, positioning them for potential growth as Bitcoin adoption increases.

Related: Nasdaq Proposes In-Kind Redemptions for BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF

Market Context

The launch of the Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF comes at a time when the market is experiencing significant fluctuations. Despite Bitcoin's impressive performance in 2024, with a return of 113%, many publicly traded mining companies have struggled to keep pace. Some have reported declines of up to 84% in their stock prices, highlighting the volatility and risks associated with the mining sector.

Future Prospects

Grayscale's Global Head of ETFs, David LaValle, emphasized the importance of Bitcoin miners, stating, "Bitcoin miners, the backbone of the network, are well-positioned for significant growth as Bitcoin adoption and usage increases." This sentiment reflects the broader trend of institutional interest in Bitcoin-related investments, as more traditional investors seek to diversify their portfolios with innovative financial products.

Related: Is $200,000 a Realistic Bitcoin Price Target for This Cycle?

Conclusion

The Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF represents a significant step forward in making Bitcoin investments more accessible to a wider audience. By focusing on the mining sector, Grayscale is tapping into a critical component of the Bitcoin ecosystem, offering investors a way to engage with the market without the complexities of direct Bitcoin ownership. As the demand for Bitcoin continues to grow, the ETF could serve as a valuable tool for investors looking to capitalize on the evolving landscape of digital assets.

These experiences have opened my eyes to the fact that developers, community leaders and everyday plebs across Africa are harnessing the power of Bitcoin to catalyze change in their lives, and they’re doing so while carrying on the spirit of the early cypherpunks.

An African Bitcoiner’s Manifesto

In “A Cypherpunk’s Manifesto,” Eric Hughes wrote:

“Cypherpunks write code. We know that someone has to write software to defend privacy, and since we can't get privacy unless we all do, we're going to write it. We publish our code so that our fellow Cypherpunks may practice and play with it. Our code is free for all to use, worldwide. We don't much care if you don't approve of the software we write. We know that software can't be destroyed and that a widely dispersed system can't be shut down.”

It’s with this attitude that the builders in Africa are building. And while not all of the builders on the continent are writing code, they’re all doing as much of their work as possible without asking permission.

So, based on what I saw in Africa during my recent two trips to the continent as well as to my trip to Ghana in late 2023, during which I attended the African Bitcoin Conference and visited Bitcoin Dua, I’d image an African Bitcoiner’s version of Hughes’ manifesto might read something like this:

“African Bitcoiners just build things with Bitcoin. We know that somebody has to step up to enact change, because all of the promises from the NGOs and governments have fallen short. We publish our proof of work online so that fellow African Bitcoiners can use it as a model and adapt it to their own unique context. Our proof of work and/or code is free to replicate across Africa, and beyond its borders. We aren’t looking for approval from authorities; however, we aren’t opposed to working with them if they see the value in our projects and visions. We know that our work harnesses the immutable and uncensorable nature of Bitcoin as well as the indefatigable nature of the human spirit and, therefore, can’t be stopped or shut down.”

The following are some examples of projects that embody such a spirit:

Bitcoin Ekasi

Bitcoin Ekasi is one of the most shining manifestations of the cypherpunk and Bitcoin ethos in Africa. The project, initiated in 2021 and based in Mossel Bay, South Africa, has become a model for Bitcoin circular economies across Africa.

The project, founded by Hermann Vivier (also one of the organizers for Adopting Bitcoin Cape Town) aimed to do two things: raise funds in bitcoin for The Surfer Kids non-profit, which Vivier also founded, and onboard shops in the community to Bitcoin. (Project Community Leader Luthando Ndabambi has done the latter masterfully over the years.)

The purpose of the second dimension of the mission was to enable community members to spend their bitcoin within the community, ideally raising the economic status of the community as a whole in the process.

The project now works with the local public primary school, which recently began accepting bitcoin for school fees, and has revamped the community centers for both Bitcoin Ekasi and The Surfer Kids (in part thanks to generous donations from Jack Dorsey and fundraising efforts by Aubrey Strobel.)

Unveiling the new sign at the main entrance of the local township primary school!https://t.co/ttBcG7X2nE pic.twitter.com/f6R2ryGC0P

— Bitcoin Ekasi (@BitcoinEkasi) January 17, 2025

Some politicians in the country, several of whom spoke at Adopting Bitcoin Cape Town this year, have taken notice of the project and are as a result starting to see the value of Bitcoin.

Tando

Tando is an app built by a team based in Kenya that lets Bitcoin Lightning wallets interface with Kenya’s mobile money system M-PESA.

The app, which doesn’t require KYC and is highly intuitive, is one of the greatest tools for financial inclusion in the country, as those who lack the proper ID-papers are excluded from making payments via M-PESA. Using Tando, they can make the payment via their Lightning wallet and transact digitally with their fellow Kenyans.

Tando is also a great option for Bitcoiners who visit Kenya. I used it multiple times during my stay in Kenya to pay Kenyan shilling-denominated tabs digitally.

Learn more about the app here.

Bitcoin Dua

Founded in 2023, Bitcoin Dua is located in Agbozume, Ghana, which is near the country’s border with Togo. It’s quickly established itself as one of the fastest-growing Bitcoin circular economies in Africa.

Not only does the project help to educate Ghanaians about Bitcoin, but it also provides coding and robotics classes to help its community members develop skills that can help them find employment that pays in bitcoin.

Lego Robot for preparation towards the 2025 #robotics competition in Ghana. We are able to improve on our equipment acquisition through the #AfricaBitcoinCircularEconomyGrant. Thanks to @Bitcoinbeach and @BitcoinEkasi pic.twitter.com/S6NIQmYqdL

— Bitcoin Dua (@bitcoin_dua) December 29, 2024

The project’s founder, Mawufemor Kofi Folivi and his team were awarded the Social Impact award at this year’s African Bitcoin Conference, and Jack Dorsey has committed funding to help build a sports complex in the community.

The team at Bitcoin Dua can’t stop and won’t stop.

Machankura

Founded in May 2022 by Kgothatso Ngako (KG) (also one of the organizers for Adopting Bitcoin Cape Town), Machankura enables Africans to use bitcoin over Lightning with feature phones (i.e., cell phones before smart phones).

The technology allows users to send bitcoin over USSD, the equivalent of SMS in Africa, giving some of the two-thirds of the population of Africa that doesn’t have access to the internet access to bitcoin.

KG is also currently working on technology that will store the private keys to bitcoin on chips embedded in feature phones, essentially enabling these phones in the six African countries in which the service is available to double as bitcoin hardware wallets.

CYPHERPUNK AF.

Afribit Kibera

Afribit Kibera, located in Kenya, is a Bitcoin circular economy located in the largest informal settlement in Africa.

The project’s co-founder, Ronnie Mdawida, is a long-time human rights advocate and community organizer, and he’s now using Bitcoin as a tool to help further bring the unbanked and the underbanked into the economy.

Mdawida and his team have onboarded 40 merchants to Bitcoin thus far and have set up a recycling program that rewards participants with sats for their work.

Meet our first-ever merchant in 2025—the journey continues! Soon, the entire Kibera will turn orange!@BitcoinEkasi @FBCEglobal @Bitcoinbeach @blinkbtc @geyserfund @thecore21m pic.twitter.com/rWhEzONN4v

— AFRIBIT KIBERA (@AfribitKibera) January 15, 2025

While many of the merchants and community members of Afribit Kibera were introduced to bitcoin primarily as a medium of exchange, many have started saving in it, feeling more hopeful about their future as a result.

Proceeding Together Apace

While each of the projects mentioned above are incredible in their own right, what makes the Bitcoin story in Africa really special is that the members of all these projects continue to learn from and build with one another.

This is the beauty of not only open-source software but also conferences like Adopting Bitcoin Cape Town and the African Bitcoin Conference where builders across the continent share their successes and challenges as well as offer support for each other.

If you’ve yet to attend one of these conferences, I highly recommend you do so, especially if you’d like to feel firsthand the spirit of the cypherpunks or those who embody the Bitcoin ethos.

African Bitcoiners aren’t waiting for permission to change both their lives and the lives of those around them. Bitcoin gives them the opportunity to build a brighter future — together.

Global M2 money supply is at $97T and increasing. ????

One of the most important charts to watch for the remainder of this cycle ???? ???? ???? pic.twitter.com/ugInOcjdIQ

— Bitcoin Magazine Pro (@BitcoinMagPro) January 29, 2025

What is Global Liquidity?

Global liquidity, often equated with M2 money supply, represents the total volume of currency and near-money available in the financial system. This includes physical cash, checking and savings deposits, money market accounts, retail mutual funds, and short-term time deposits under $100,000. Importantly, M2 reflects not just static wealth but the fluid potential for spending and investing.

The Central Banks Driving Liquidity

Global liquidity isn’t monolithic. It’s the aggregate result of monetary policies from the world’s most influential central banks:

• USA: Federal Reserve
• China: People’s Bank of China
• EU: European Central Bank
• UK: Bank of England
• Japan: Bank of Japan
• Canada: Bank of Canada
• Russia: Bank of Russia
• Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia

When these central banks lower interest rates or implement quantitative easing (QE) measures, such as purchasing government bonds and securities, they effectively inject fresh liquidity into the global financial system. As liquidity expands, it opens the door for increased spending and investment in risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Related: How Declining Short-Term U.S. Treasury Yields Impact Bitcoin Price

Why Investors Should Care

For strategic investors, tracking global liquidity is akin to weather forecasting for the financial markets. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have coincided with periods of rapid global liquidity expansion. The logic is straightforward: when central banks flood the system with cash, investors are emboldened to seek higher-yielding opportunities in safe-haven assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-correlated, deflationary asset makes it uniquely positioned in this environment. Unlike fiat currencies, which central banks can create in unlimited quantities, Bitcoin operates on a fixed monetary schedule capped at 21 million coins. This scarcity is a direct contrast to the seemingly limitless expansion of M2, reinforcing Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold.”

The $97 Trillion Marker: A Call to Action

The $97 trillion global M2 supply underscores the relentless expansion of fiat liquidity. While this might seem like an abstract figure, its implications are very tangible for Bitcoin investors. Here’s why:

1. Liquidity-Driven Price Momentum: Increased liquidity has historically aligned with Bitcoin’s most explosive growth phases. Investors who monitor these trends gain a crucial edge in timing their market entries.
2. Hedge Against Inflation: As central banks expand liquidity to manage economic downturns, the purchasing power of fiat currencies erodes. Bitcoin’s fixed supply serves as a hedge against this debasement.
3. Institutional Adoption: As professional and institutional investors increasingly integrate Bitcoin into portfolios, monitoring global liquidity becomes essential for aligning strategies with macroeconomic conditions.

Related: What Bitcoin Price History Predicts for February 2025

Looking Ahead: The Bitcoin Opportunity

Bitcoin’s relationship with global liquidity isn’t just a trend; it’s a testament to its maturation as a financial asset. For those who view Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional financial systems, the current $97 trillion liquidity landscape presents a compelling backdrop.

As central banks continue to grapple with economic uncertainties, Bitcoin remains a beacon for investors seeking transparency, predictability, and security in an unpredictable world. The rising tide of global liquidity isn’t just a narrative; it’s an invitation to reevaluate Bitcoin’s role in your investment strategy.

Now is the time to harness the power of data and foresight. Monitor liquidity. Watch Bitcoin. Invest strategically.

For ongoing access to live data, advanced analytics, and exclusive content, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough independent research before making investment decisions.

Something has fundamentally changed in this ecosystem. A big shift in the core ethos of things. Regardless of what you think about politics in the wider world, Bitcoin itself as a network and protocol was something explicitly designed to function in a hostile environment, in an environment where politics and governments are actively antagonistic towards it.

The core value proposition of Bitcoin itself is that, as a system, it can continue functioning despite such antagonism in a hostile environment. It can be a foundation for us to build upon, with everything built upon it inheriting that resilience to some degree in the face of a well equipped antagonist.

It seems like faith in that core value proposition has almost completely evaporated in this ecosystem. Determination to build upon that foundation, and to protect its soundness at all costs, seems to have evaporated. In its place we now have cheerleading politicians, favor trading for selectively beneficial regulation, and prioritization of short term financial gain over the preservation of what makes Bitcoin valuable in the first place.

People are less concerned with the creeping web of business relationships in the mining ecosystem, which is the bedrock of Bitcoin’s foundation of openness and censorship resistance, and more concerned with whether President Trump is going to just pump our bags, or pump the bags of shitcoiners too.

We are counting our chickens before they hatched.

Bitcoin has issues regarding mining centralization, and that part of the ecosystem’s vulnerability to regulatory attacks and mandates from governments that could put at risk the ability of people to openly use the network without fear of censorship. It has issues in terms of scalability, and the ability to support enough users using the network self-custodially to actually be a viable means of protests and opting out at a large enough scale to matter to governments. The custodians people otherwise will have to use are just as regulatorily vulnerable as miners are becoming. It also has a serious privacy issue, which opens users themselves to regulatory pressure forcing them into self censorship.

Bitcoin has all of these problems, and rather than focusing on solving them so that Bitcoin can remain the resilient system that made it valuable in the first place, people are more concerned with currying political favor with the current US Presidential Administration for token policy wins and short term financial gain at the cost of major concessions that very well could seriously damage Bitcoin’s foundation.

So where did we take a wrong turn? And frankly, what the fuck is wrong with everyone? 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

The news got buried in part due to Trump’s inauguration and subsequent rumblings of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), but developer b10c recently published research showing that F2Pool — a mining pool representing ~11% of hash power on the Bitcoin network — is censoring OFAC-sanctioned transactions… again.

In case you don’t know what this means: the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) maintains a list of sanctioned entities, including a number of Bitcoin addresses; it’s illegal to do business with these entities under US law. It’s actually unclear if this means miners cannot include transactions to and from these addresses in blocks they produce — but F2Pool appears to be rather safe than sorry.

Now, as long as it’s just F2Pool applying this policy, this is not really an issue. Some transactions will be delayed by about ten minutes or so, once in a while, but that’s about it.

If more pools start doing it, the delays will get longer and more frequent — but still not terrible. Not even if it’s a majority of pools.

The real issue will arise if a majority of mining pools not only censors transactions, but also refuses to build on top of blocks that do include these transactions. If this were to happen, these transactions wouldn’t confirm at all anymore… not for as long as these mining pools remain a majority. Bitcoin would no longer be censorship-resistant.

I can’t really fault F2Pool for adopting their policy. Although I would much prefer it if no mining pools censor, we unfortunately live in a world where even open source software developers may face prison time for enabling users to transact freely.

Rather than flirting with an SBR, it would be great if the new Trump administration first just stopped such state attacks on Bitcoin.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Financially-settled options, also known as cash-settled options, are derivatives contracts where the settlement at expiration does not involve the physical delivery of the underlying asset. Instead, the profit or loss from the option is calculated based on the difference between the option's strike price and the market price of the underlying asset at the time of expiration, and this amount is then paid in cash.

"We are pleased to offer these new options that provide traders with even greater precision to manage short-term bitcoin price risk," said Giovanni Vicioso, CME Group’s Global Head of Cryptocurrency Products. "Building on the success of our Bitcoin Friday futures, the smaller size of these contracts, along with daily expiries, offer market participants a capital-efficient toolset to effectively adjust their bitcoin exposure."

CME Group said these financially-settled options will enhance its lineup of other cryptocurrency derivatives, which already includes physically-settled options on Bitcoin and Micro Bitcoin futures.

"Given the increasing density of tradable catalysts in crypto, CME Group's new option suite on Bitcoin Friday futures provides the granularity that market participants need for hedging and expressing nuanced views on Bitcoin," said Joshua Lim, Global Co-head of Markets at FalconX.

Since their launch on September 29, Bitcoin Friday futures have become CME Group's most successful cryptocurrency product, with over 775,000 contracts traded and an average daily volume of 9,700 contracts. Notably, 44% of trades occurred during non-U.S. hours, highlighting global demand.

BREAKING: ???????? Czech National Bank governor says #Bitcoin “has zero correlation to bonds and is an interesting asset for a large portfolio.”

“Worth considering.” ???? pic.twitter.com/PqwlWEbpGy

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 29, 2025

Key Takeaways

• The CNB may invest up to 5% of its €140 billion ($146.13 billion) reserves in Bitcoin.
• Governor Michl emphasizes Bitcoin's potential for diversification despite its volatility.
• The proposal is set to be presented to the bank's board for approval on January 30, 2025.

A Shift Towards Bitcoin

Governor Aleš Michl has expressed a desire to diversify the CNB's asset portfolio, highlighting Bitcoin as a viable option. In an interview, he stated, "For the diversification of our assets, Bitcoin seems good." This statement reflects a growing trend among financial institutions to explore BTC as an alternative investment.

The proposed investment could amount to approximately €7 billion ($7.3 billion) in Bitcoin, which would surpass the CNB's current gold holdings of €4.3 billion. If approved, this allocation would represent a significant shift from traditional reserve assets, which typically include gold and U.S. dollars.

Related: Trump Signs Executive Order to Explore a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

The Rationale Behind the Proposal

Several factors are driving the CNB's consideration of Bitcoin:

1. Increasing Institutional Interest: The launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by major asset managers like BlackRock has sparked renewed interest in Bitcoin as a legitimate investment.
2. Diversification Strategy: Michl believes that Bitcoin's low correlation with traditional assets like bonds makes it an attractive option for diversifying the bank's reserves.
3. Changing Regulatory Landscape: The recent regulatory changes in the U.S., particularly under President Donald Trump, have created a more favorable environment for cryptocurrencies, further encouraging the CNB's exploration of Bitcoin.

Risks and Considerations

Despite the potential benefits, Michl acknowledges the inherent volatility risks associated with investing in Bitcoin. However, he remains optimistic about its long-term value, stating, "It’s possible to have a big range of outcomes, that Bitcoin will have a value of zero or an absolutely fantastic value."

The CNB's board will need to conduct a thorough analysis before making a final decision. Michl emphasized the importance of thoughtful consideration, stating, "The bank board decides, and no decision is imminent."

Related: Preston Pysh Explains Why SAB 121 Beats a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Conclusion

The Czech National Bank's potential move to invest in Bitcoin marks a significant moment in the evolution of central banking. If approved, this decision could pave the way for other central banks to follow suit, reflecting a broader acceptance of digital assets in the financial landscape. As the CNB prepares to present its proposal, the world watches closely to see if this bold step will redefine the role of Bitcoin in national reserves.

For an in-depth complete analysis, refer to the original Can Bitcoin Realistically Reach $200,000? full video presentation available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro's YouTube channel.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin's price is influenced by supply and demand dynamics.
• Long-term holders play a significant role in market stability.
• The money multiplier effect shows how market cap can increase with new investments.
• Current trends suggest a cautious outlook for reaching $200,000.

Understanding Supply And Demand

At its core, Bitcoin's price is driven by supply and demand. If the supply decreases or remains stable while demand increases, we can expect the price to rise. To gauge this, we look at how much new Bitcoin is being accumulated by new market participants and how much is being distributed by long-term holders.

Related: We're Repeating The 2017 Bitcoin Bull Cycle

The Role Of Long-Term Holders

Long-term holders are defined as those who have held Bitcoin for 155 days or more. This group tends to influence the market significantly. Recently, the long-term holder supply peaked at around 16.14 million BTC. However, as of now, that number has dropped to about 14.5 million BTC. This shift indicates that a substantial amount of Bitcoin has been moved, which can impact market dynamics.

Short-Term Holders And Market Influence

Short-term holders, including institutional buyers and corporations, are actively accumulating Bitcoin. Their actions can influence the market cap and price of Bitcoin. The money multiplier effect is a concept that helps us understand how much impact a dollar inflow can have on Bitcoin's market cap. For instance, if we consider that $1 invested in Bitcoin can increase the market cap by about $2.5 to $6.73, it shows the potential for significant price movements based on new investments.

Calculating The Money Multiplier Effect

To get a clearer picture, we can analyze the relationship between the long-term and short-term holder supplies and the market cap. By averaging data over a 90-day period, we can see that the current money multiplier effect is around 6.73. This means that for every $1 invested, the market cap increases by about $6.73.

What Would It Take To Reach $200,000?

To explore the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $200,000, we need to consider the market cap. Currently, Bitcoin's market cap is above $2 trillion. To hit $200,000, it would need to reach about $4 trillion. The difference of $2 trillion would require a significant amount of Bitcoin to change hands.

If we assume an average accumulation price of $150,000, we would need about 1.9 million BTC to be transferred from long-term to short-term holders. This would reduce the long-term holder supply to about 12.6 million BTC. Given the current trends, this scenario seems a bit of a stretch, as we’ve seen a decline in the amount of Bitcoin being transferred in recent cycles.

Historical Trends And Future Predictions

Historically, we’ve seen a diminishing trend in the amount of Bitcoin transferred from long-term to short-term holders. If we look at previous cycles, the maximum amount transferred has decreased over time. This suggests that reaching 12.6 million BTC in long-term holder supply may not be realistic for this cycle.

However, if we adjust our expectations to around $150,000, it appears more attainable, requiring a long-term holder supply of about 13.3 million BTC. This aligns better with historical trends.

Related: What Bitcoin Price History Predicts for February 2025

Conclusion: Is $200,000 Possible?

In summary, while reaching $200,000 for Bitcoin is not out of the question, it requires a significant shift in the market dynamics. The current money multiplier effect and the trends in long-term holder supply suggest that while it’s possible, it may be more realistic to focus on the $150,000 to $250,000 range. The market is constantly evolving, and with institutional interest growing, we might see unexpected movements in the future.

As always, it’s essential to stay informed and consider all factors when making investment decisions.

If you’re interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out Bitcoin Magazine Pro for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Things have changed now, and I don’t think people have truly grasped the scope of that change. For all his flaws, and complete lack of personal care on the subject, a sitting President has made promises to act favorably towards this space from a regulatory point of view. Obviously, many of the things he will do will wind up being detrimental to this space, and much of it will be favorable to other projects besides Bitcoin.

Yet still we argue and bicker like children. It boggles my mind how many people seemed to think it was just taken for granted that any government stockpile of digital assets would include only Bitcoin. The Trump campaign received money from numerous camps in this space, not just Bitcoiners, has a history of multiple NFT projects on Ethereum, and has no deep understanding of this space or any of the technology developed in it.

Why would he see Bitcoin as any different than everything else in this space except being the oldest and biggest?

That’s better than most average Americans. Most people in the US don’t even appreciate any difference between Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. They see the entire ecosystem as just a bunch of degenerate gamblers and crooked insiders profiting from the gamblers. Arguing over Bitcoin versus other cryptocurrencies in a reserve fund to most people is like arguing over which fast food restaurant you are going to. You’re eating shit food no matter what.

Everyone is focusing on these irrelevant internal arguments over Garlinghouse and Ripple, why a reserve should only be Bitcoin, etc. You are all ignoring the much more important issue looming over everything: your average person doesn’t see the difference between Bitcoin and everything else.

They are going to see any reserve holding any asset by and large as a complete waste of public money. A reserve will create a large amount of resentment, it will be seen as early adopters weaseling up to the President to have him pump their bags. That’s the wider reality everyone is ignoring, and one of the many reasons I am against any type of reserve that actively accumulates bitcoin.

Arguing with shitcoiners, or even former Congressmen, over what should go into a reserve fund is putting the cart before the horse. Politics is driven by two things, money and popular sentiment. The shitcoiner money isn’t going away, so that leaves getting across to normal people the difference between Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Without that public support, such arguments are going to likely fall on deaf ears. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

My thoughts on the two biggest things that happened last week w/ Bitcoin.

SAB121 and the in-kind redemption request to the SEC pic.twitter.com/XyHDiNcOvH

— Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh) January 27, 2025

Who is Preston Pysh?

Preston Pysh is a General Partner at Ego Death Capital, a Bitcoin-focused investment firm. Known for his expertise in finance, macroeconomics, and Bitcoin, Pysh is also the founder of The Investor’s Podcast Network. With his deep understanding of traditional financial systems and Bitcoin’s transformative potential, Pysh is a leading voice in the Bitcoin community.

What Was SAB 121?

SAB 121 (Staff Accounting Bulletin 121), introduced during Gary Gensler’s tenure at the SEC, imposed significant restrictions on financial institutions looking to custody Bitcoin. Under its guidelines, banks had to classify Bitcoin custody as a liability on their balance sheets. For every dollar’s worth of Bitcoin they held, they were required to offset it with an equivalent amount of capital—typically in treasuries or other assets.

The result? Institutional Bitcoin custody became economically prohibitive. Banks, wary of the capital-intensive requirements, opted out of offering Bitcoin-related services entirely.

However, the rescission of SAB 121 changes the game. Bitcoin custody is now treated as an asset, not a liability, dramatically lowering barriers for major banks like JPMorgan and others to enter the Bitcoin ecosystem. As Pysh notes, “All the major banking institutions are now wanting to take this on. There could be loan products, all sorts of things that can pop out of this.”

Related: Why Hundreds of Companies Will Buy Bitcoin in 2025

A New Era for Institutional Bitcoin Custody

Preston Pysh emphasizes that this regulatory shift could entrench Bitcoin as a cornerstone of global financial infrastructure. The implications are profound:

1. Broader Institutional Adoption: Banks can now custody Bitcoin without facing onerous balance sheet requirements. This paves the way for loan products, derivatives, and a host of other financial instruments tied to Bitcoin.
2. Enhanced Legitimacy: The willingness of major banks to custody Bitcoin signals a growing recognition of its role as a global settlement layer, further cementing its place in the financial system.
3. A Durable Framework: Unlike a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which could be subject to political whims and administrative changes, the rescission of SAB 121 creates a structural shift. “This entrenches Bitcoin as a global settlement layer, in my humble opinion,” Pysh explains, underscoring its long-term impact.

Why the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Falls Short

While the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—where governments accumulate Bitcoin as part of their national reserves—has captured the imagination of the Bitcoin community, Pysh suggests it lacks the permanence of SAB 121’s impact. Reserves can be subject to the priorities of the administration in power. A pro-Bitcoin government might amass reserves, only for a subsequent administration to reverse course.

In contrast, institutional adoption driven by the rescission of SAB 121 creates a systemic entrenchment. Large-scale integration by private banks and financial institutions is harder to unwind and more likely to persist across political cycles.

Addressing the Risks

Pysh acknowledges concerns about the centralization of Bitcoin custody among large institutions. Sovereign influence over custodial banks could raise questions about Bitcoin’s decentralization and the potential for misuse. However, he also points to mechanisms like BlackRock’s application for in-kind redemptions in its Bitcoin ETF as a counterbalance to such risks. “If this in-kind redemption is honored by the SEC, which I really hope it will, and I suspect it will be,” Pysh explains, “it would really offset the concern of rehypothecation happening with the custodians.”

Related: Nasdaq Proposes In-Kind Redemptions for BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF

Conclusion

The rescission of SAB 121 represents a monumental shift in Bitcoin’s journey toward mainstream adoption. By removing barriers for institutional custody, it paves the way for Bitcoin’s integration into the global financial system in a manner that is more enduring than government-led initiatives like a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. As Preston Pysh, General Partner at Ego Death Capital, notes, this development entrenches Bitcoin as a global settlement layer and opens the door to a host of financial innovations.

The Bitcoin community must remain vigilant about the risks associated with institutional custody, but there’s no denying the bullish implications of this regulatory breakthrough. The next era of Bitcoin adoption has begun, and SAB 121’s rescission is leading the charge.

The only caveat is that if one miner or coalition of miners is able to marshal more than 50% of the hashrate, they will have the ability to overwrite recent blocks, prohibit other miners from writing future blocks, and determine which transactions are recorded in the canonical ledger. This would be a disaster, obviously; the entire point was to avoid a situation in which a single party was in control. So the ultimate binding piece of the game theory designed by Satoshi is that there is some incentive to prevent this from happening. As described in the whitepaper:

The incentive may help encourage nodes to stay honest. If a greedy attacker is able to assemble more CPU power than all the honest nodes, he would have to choose between using it to defraud people by stealing back his payments, or using it to generate new coins. He ought to find it more profitable to play by the rules, such rules that favour him with more new coins than everyone else combined, than to undermine the system and the validity of his own wealth.

He ought to find it more profitable to play by the rules

Indeed, this is the bedrock for all of the game theory in Bitcoin. Bitcoin makes sense if and only if, at any point in time, at least 50% of the miners are incentivized to stay honest. This has been the case since 2009.

An underdiscussed, but perhaps most crucial part of the theory is the reason why he ought to find it more profitable to play by the rules. The answer, in 2009, 2010, 2011, and every year since has always been the same: Because if he didn't, it would break. If it breaks, the Bitcoin experiment is over and the miner who did this would become the proud owner of a landfill full of worthless E-waste. This is what Satoshi was referring to, and this is why the community panicked in 2014 when the ghash pool exceeded 50% of the hashrate. The idea that one party (even if that is a pool) could take over the system represented such a disastrous failure mode that everyone tries to avoid it.

Built into the game theory is the understanding that theoretically someone could, perhaps with significant costs, direct over 50% of the hashrate to behave in a dishonest way, forcing a constitutional crisis. But the natural result of this crisis is mutual assured destruction for all miners and holders. This is the ultimate deterrent for misbehavior.

Note that the theoretical possibility of a 51% attack is eternally present, regardless of the current hashrate, costs of electricity, cooling or new ASICs. This is a tautological consequence of the fact that 51% < 100%: At any point in time, a pool could be created with malicious intentions, and 60% of miners could join this pool. The fact of the matter is that in recent times, 100% of the miners are electively mining the tip. It is always a matter of incentives, not physical plausibility.

For those outside the system, who own no ASICs, the security model prohibits them from attacking the system. But the security model is designed not only to protect from external threats (it's an open system after all) it's designed to protect from actors within the system as well. Miners don't just protect the system from non-miners, they protect the system from other miners.

Consider selfish mining. This technique is mathematically demonstrated to give an advantage to a group of 34% of miners who execute this technique beyond a difficulty adjustment period. Selfish mining doesn't involve explicit stealing or even censorship, just a better ROI for the miners who would form the coalition. Recent reports have put the miner share of the top publicly held mining corporations at close to 30% and growing. Toss in a few large private miners and we get to the selfish mining threshold. Does it seem like selfish mining is inevitable? All that is required is that a collection of miners comprising 34% to hop on a call and start the process; three weeks later they're reaping the rewards. Yet so far no groups of miners have made an attempt to try this. Why is this?

Selfish mining would represent a major norm violation; crossing this line would lead Bitcoin into a nasty place where competing groups are slugging it out. The grand prize for the winner is monopoly control, under which the monopoly miner gets to keep all the fees and block subsidies, can ease down their hashrate to boost profits, and can even negotiate fees directly or even set their own fee rates. But this would be a disaster for Bitcoin; for this reason, nobody is initiating that call.

I wrote a chapter in my book about coalitional game theory, analyzing exactly this problem in regards to monopoly mining. The analysis boils down to a comparison of the profits accrued to a 51% coalition which splits the rewards from a monopolized chain, or the small profits accrued to the grand coalition if they stick to the competitive course. In the early days, the answer was clear: Monopoly mining would have destroyed everything, so there is no incentive for a coalition to form.

Enter USG

If the USG commits to a plan, over years and decades, to invest in Bitcoin, they will have created something which cannot fail. It simply cannot. Regardless of who mines Bitcoin, who is priced out, what parties use the chain, it cannot fail, and it won't fail. If there is a constitutional crisis about mining, this crisis will be resolved and resolved in a very clear and definitive way.

There are quite a few ways to resolve a constitutional crisis, when you expand your window to include centralized options. In the early days these options would have been discarded as inferior to failure, but if failure is not an option, all options can and will be considered. A simple brute force assertion of 51% power by USG and US controlled miners is one option (this need not require censorial monopoly mining.) Another workable solution is a permissioned soft-fork which only allows new blocks by the publicly traded miners. Obviously, Proof of Stake is on the table. Another option would be to convert the UTXO set of Bitcoin into a CBDC whose transactions are confirmed by the Fed. This would bring Bitcoin to the masses at lightning speed and bring massive value to early holders.

The point is that under this regime, monopoly mining is no longer a failure per se. Any coalition of miners could pursue monopoly mining, starting with selfish mining and snowballing their coalition to 51%. As long as they don't do anything that directly irritates the USG, they can't break the system. If they achieve monopoly mining, the USG is still there, backstopping Bitcoin.

In short, the USG enmeshing itself with Bitcoin's success decades into the future removes Bitcoin's ultimate weapon against centralization; its option to fail.

It's hard to imagine that miners who are fighting for tiny profit margins would continue with the decentralization theater, when they ought to find it more profitable to form a coalition and monopoly mine, which strictly speaking, isn't even against the rules.

This is a guest post by Micah Warren. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Just talked with @realDonaldTrump and thanked him for keeping his promises to our industry and to Ross. I asked him if he wanted to share a message with the Bitcoin community…

He said he’s with us 100%, we’re going to send Bitcoin to much greater heights, and we’re going to…

— David Bailey???????? $0.85mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) January 26, 2025

Bailey’s tweets sparked immediate interest and debate within the community. While many were enthusiastic about Trump’s purported endorsement, skeptics questioned the authenticity of the statements. One user’s comment, "Record the talk next time, because nobody I’m talking with believes these tweets," captured the sentiments of some within the community.

Related: David Bailey Forecasts $1M Bitcoin Price During Trump Presidency

Bailey addressed these concerns head-on, emphasizing his respect for the privacy of the conversation. "I would never record a private conversation with the President and share it publicly to score points on the internet," Bailey responded. This statement reaffirmed his commitment to ethical practices, even as it left some doubters unconvinced.

In the tweet’s comment section, another user raised a specific question about the Executive Order instructing the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets to evaluate the potential creation of a national digital asset stockpile. The user highlighted concerns "over the possibility of shitcoins in the stockpile."

Bailey’s response shed light on the scope of the conversation with Trump. "We talked for ~10 minutes. Covered a few topics. I don’t think he’s aware of the concern, and I didn’t raise it," he noted.

Related: Trump Signs Executive Order to Explore a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Eight months ago, Bailey collaborated with the Trump campaign to develop their policy agenda on these matters. This collaboration was part of Bailey’s ongoing efforts to engage political leaders and shape policy discussions.

For the past month we have been working with the Trump campaign to develop their bitcoin and crypto policy agenda. We proposed a comprehensive executive order for President Trump to sign on day 1. I will be sharing those details soon. This week Trump took the first step, but…

— David Bailey???????? $0.85mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) May 11, 2024

This dialogue underscores the growing intersection between the community and politics, with these topics increasingly finding their place in national and global policy discussions. While Bailey’s exchange with Trump may not have resolved every concern within the community, it reflects a broader effort to engage influential figures on the future of these matters. As the community continues to advocate for its values, such conversations could play a pivotal role in shaping the direction of policy in the United States.

Date Founded: March 2022

Location of Headquarters: Nashville, TN

Number of Employees: Five (soon to be seven)

Website: https://www.anchorwatch.com/

Public or Private? Private

After almost three years of development, AnchorWatch has rolled out its product — a collaborative bitcoin multisig vault that comes with an insurance policy.

The company has created what it calls a Trident Vault, which utilizes smart contracts on Bitcoin to enable features like timelocks, multisig quorums and spending conditions, and AnchorWatch insures the bitcoin protected by these vaults as a Lloyd’s of London Coverholder.

The combination of this technology plus world-class level of insurance helps protect AnchorWatch clients from risks related to theft, kidnappings, fraud or catastrophic events. It’s a level of protection that no Bitcoin company has offered to date.

“We identified that insurance in the Bitcoin space was totally lacking,” AnchorWatch co-founder and COO Becca Rubenfeld told Bitcoin Magazine. “There are a few risks that technology can’t mitigate — like really sophisticated wrench attacks, a customer dying with their keys or even AnchorWatch being a bad actor — and we were able to plug those holes with the insurance.”

The market has been primed for a product like this, as Rubenfeld and her team have been fielding a host of inquiries and requests for its product since the company opened its doors for business last month.

And it’s ironic that Rubenfeld has found her niche in the Bitcoin industry in helping people and institutions secure and insure their bitcoin stacks, especially considering it was the fact that she didn’t see bitcoin as much more than a speculative tool that led to her meeting her co-founder at AnchorWatch, Rob Hamilton.

The Origins Of AnchorWatch

Rubenfeld and Hamilton first interacted in group chat rooms on the social media app Clubhouse in late 2020.

“We met in Clubhouse Bitcoin rooms,” recounted Rubenfeld.

“I was just trying to get trading alpha, and there were these guys in the rooms who were like the who’s who of Bitcoin. They ran Bitcoin companies, and they were core devs and cultural personalities. We were all just hanging out during the quarantine,” she added.

“Everybody was starved for human connection, and we became friends. I got orange-pilled this way very quickly.”

During this time, which Rubenfeld fondly refers to as her “masterclass in Bitcoin,” she first heard Hamilton discussing the need for bitcoin insurance.

“Rob was just ideating and realized that he knew how he would build the tech to do that self-custody insurance,” said Rubenfeld.

The likes of American HODL and Jason Williams urged Hamilton to build the product and were two of its first investors. Rubenfeld joined the cap table soon after, but quickly noticed that she had the capability to help Hamilton in other ways.

“He was very busy building his MVP (minimum viable product), and I was like ‘Okay, Rob, so, just make sure to make a pitch deck, and you need a pro forma, and you need to do some forecasts, and, by the way, do you know much about insurance?’” explained Rubenfeld.

Before long Rubenfeld began to complete these tasks and many others for Hamilton while he focused on coding. In doing so, she harnessed the skills that she’d gained during her years working in corporate for companies like Starbucks, Target and American Eagle.

At first, she came on as a volunteer, but after pulling two all-nighters during her first week helping Hamilton, she realized she’d found a calling.

“We were working very closely together, talking all day about the vision,” recalled Rubenfeld.

“It was so intense and so much fun, and it was just kind of a change I was looking for compared to the work I’d been doing. So, after a little over a week, I told him, if we wanted to do this together, I would leave Starbucks and join full time. He was in, and so I joined as co-founder and COO a few days later,” she added.

From that moment, Rubenfeld and Hamilton worked relentlessly — for almost three years.

“We were in this office heads down 12 plus hours a day every single day,” said Rubenfeld. “Luckily, our investors remained patient as we went from zero to one.”

The AnchorWatch Product

As mentioned, AnchorWatch’s product enables its customers to manage and protect their bitcoin through a unique multisig setup for which AnchorWatch themselves holds some of the keys, while insuring said bitcoin with the backing of LLoyd’s of London, one of the largest and most reputable insurance companies in the world.

Rubenfeld broke the product down in greater detail:

“At the highest level, we are distributing custody of Bitcoin amongst multiple keys over time,” she explained.

“With the timelocks, it allows you to have a standard way to manage your Bitcoin where the customer holds keys and AnchorWatch holds keys, but we're both required signers, which makes it a unique form of collaborative custody,” she added. “But then over time, additional ways to spend the Bitcoin become available, which enables disaster management and inheritance procedure assurances.”

In other words, this timelock technology, which utilizes Bitcoin’s miniscript, allows for clients to access their bitcoin using different combinations of keys over time, which is useful if keys are lost, stolen or destroyed or become unavailable because of death or employee changes at company.

And AnchorWatch is only required to sign the transaction so long as the customer continues its insurance policy with the company. If the customer chooses to cancel the policy, AnchorWatch can return the bitcoin to the originally agreed upon bitcoin address.

AnchorWatch itself can never unilaterally control a customer’s bitcoin, and if AnchorWatch were to disappear, the vault can eventually be controlled by the customer’s keys alone once the policy ends. The flexibility to protect customers against many perils at the same time is the advantage of building with miniscript and embedding it with insurance.

The insurance policies, which start at 0.55% of the value of a clients’ bitcoin holdings annually, cover amounts of bitcoin ranging from $250,000 to $100 million.

“What’s unique about the product is that while you have an insurance policy and we, via Lloyd's of London, have financial liability, we have a key and we're a required signer,” explained Rubenfeld.

“So, either we can sign in combination with the customer or, in the case of a customer death or a sophisticated wrench attack, then we could eventually sign in combination with a recovery institution,” she added.

“But when your insurance policy ends if you don’t choose to renew with us, the vault can be controlled by the customer’s keys alone, as programmed into the bitcoin timelocks — all this is programmed at the protocol level, so it's verifiable on chain.”

Initial Clients

After launching in late December, the floodgates opened and potential clients began getting in touch.

“The early response has been very, very strong,” said Rubenfeld. “Something like 180 people have reached out to inquire.”

Rubenfeld also noted that the initial interest is coming from a mix of U.S.-based retail and commercial customers, though it skews heavier toward retail customers. Some are insuring their entire bitcoin holdings, while others are segmenting their bitcoin between multiple custody methods and are insuring a portion.

“The typical retail customer is securing 5-15 bitcoin,” shared Rubenfeld. “80% of those who have signed up for the service are protecting between $300,000 and $3 million worth of bitcoin, and we’re in the process of working through underwriting on several large customers with much larger policies.”

Rubenfeld assured me that AnchorWatch is prepared to handle larger accounts, and that she’s excited to be bringing AnchorWatch’s product to market at a time when corporate bitcoin strategies are becoming more popular.

She expects to be getting calls from such clients as AnchorWatch establishes itself.

“They’ll watch from afar for a little bit just to confirm that they're comfortable about how things are going before they make a move,” said Rubenfeld.

“But we've had some large commercial clients reach out, and in some cases, they've got thousands of bitcoin, and they might be starting with a $10 million policy. So, they're just insuring a little bit, as they make sure that they're happy as customers. We enjoy this process and we feel confident as we serve them,” she added.

“They've stated that if they're happy next year, they would move more bitcoin over to Trident to be covered.”

The Ultimate Protection

Rubenfeld believes that both AnchorWatch’s retail and corporate clients alike will find AnchorWatch’s services to be invaluable as it not only protects the clients’ bitcoin, but potentially even the clients themselves.

“We’re an insurance company, but we’re actually protecting people,” explained Rubenfeld.

“By the nature of both the technology and the insurance, which protects against wrench attacks, we are actually keeping people safe. Being an AnchorWatch customer disincentives wrench attacks, because, one, it’s incredibly hard to pull off a wrench attack with the way the vault is constructed, and, two, even if the attacker does pull off an attack the stolen bitcoin becomes the insurer’s property,” she added.

“We have the resources of Lloyd's of London behind us and we're an insurance company:, we're going to be here for a hundred years, so we're going to hunt you forever.”

Rubenfeld went on to explain how attackers wouldn’t have to just successfully pull off the heist, but never make a mistake in managing the stolen bitcoin until the day they die (which is tough considering that Bitcoin is a public ledger).

Rubenfeld believes that this will lead to a trend in which clients willfully disclose that they’re an AnchorWatch customer (something AnchorWatch would never do on their behalf without their permission) as a means to dissuade attackers from even trying to steal from them.

“I think what will happen is people will want to say, ‘Hey, I'm an AnchorWatch customer — don't even try it,’” said Rubenfeld proudly.

“And so we take our work very seriously — we feel like we are protecting people, which is our mission.”

MicroStrategy has acquired 10,107 BTC for ~$1.1 billion at ~$105,596 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 2.90% YTD 2025. As of 1/26/2025, we hodl 471,107 $BTC acquired for ~$30.4 billion at ~$64,511 per bitcoin. $MSTR https://t.co/UM5dGUS9Ma

— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) January 27, 2025

This purchase comes on the heels of the firm’s acquisition of 11,000 BTC just days earlier, which brought its total holdings to 461,000 BTC at an average cost of $63,610 per Bitcoin. With the latest transaction, MicroStrategy now holds an estimated 471,100 BTC, valued at approximately $46 billion based on current market prices.

Related: Why Hundreds of Companies Will Buy Bitcoin in 2025

Funding the Bitcoin Stash

MicroStrategy financed these recent acquisitions through stock sales. The company successfully generated $1.1 billion by leveraging its shareholder-approved increase in authorized Class A common shares, expanding from 330 million to an unprecedented 10.3 billion shares. This decision, reported by Bloomberg, underscores the company’s aggressive commitment to its Bitcoin-focused treasury strategy.

A Bold Vision for Bitcoin

Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s co-founder and outspoken Bitcoin advocate, teased the latest purchase on social media, reiterating the firm’s unwavering dedication to Bitcoin as a treasury asset. This move aligns with the broader narrative of Bitcoin adoption in the U.S., where recent developments, including President Trump’s call for a national ‘digital asset stockpile,’ have fueled interest in Bitcoin’s role as a strategic reserve asset.

Related: Trump Signs Executive Order to Explore a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

A Remarkable Streak

This latest purchase extends MicroStrategy’s buying streak to 12 consecutive weeks, cementing the company’s reputation as a relentless accumulator of Bitcoin. Despite market volatility and skepticism from traditional investors, MicroStrategy’s strategy has been clear: to double down on Bitcoin, positioning it as the centerpiece of its corporate treasury.

JUST IN: For the 12th week in a row, Michael Saylor posts the Saylor #Bitcoin tracker ????

MicroStrategy always buys more BTC in the coming week ???? pic.twitter.com/FzVJWqjyx6

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 26, 2025

MicroStrategy's continued accumulation reflects not only the company’s confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value but also a potential paradigm shift in corporate treasury management as more firms begin to explore Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

We’ve recently observed a divergence in U.S. Treasury yields, with shorter-term yields declining while longer-term yields are rising. ????

What do you think this signals for the government bond market, Bitcoin, and the broader financial markets? ????

Let me know ???? pic.twitter.com/eJmj6hhyKV

— Bitcoin Magazine Pro (@BitcoinMagPro) January 27, 2025

Treasury Yield Dynamics

Treasury yields reflect the return investors demand to hold U.S. government debt, and they are a critical barometer for the economy and monetary policy expectations. Here’s a snapshot of what’s happening:

• Short-term yields falling: Declining yields on short-term Treasury bonds, such as the 6-month yield, suggest that markets are anticipating the Federal Reserve will pivot to rate cuts in response to economic slowdown risks or lower inflation expectations.
• Long-term yields rising: Meanwhile, rising yields on longer-term bonds, like the 10-year Treasury yield, indicate growing concerns about persistent inflation, fiscal deficits, or higher-term premiums required by investors for holding long-duration debt.

This divergence in yields often hints at a shifting economic landscape and can serve as a signal for investors to recalibrate their portfolios.

Related: We're Repeating The 2017 Bitcoin Bull Cycle

Why Treasury Yields Matter for Bitcoin Investors

Bitcoin’s unique properties as a non-sovereign, decentralized asset make it particularly sensitive to macroeconomic trends. The current yield environment could shape Bitcoin’s narrative and performance in several ways:

1. Inflation Hedge Appeal:
   • Rising long-term yields may reflect persistent inflation concerns. Historically, Bitcoin has been seen as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, potentially increasing its appeal to investors looking to protect their wealth.
2. Risk-On Sentiment:
   • Declining short-term yields could indicate looser financial conditions ahead. Easier monetary policy often fosters a risk-on environment, benefiting assets like Bitcoin as investors seek higher returns.
3. Financial Instability Hedge:
   • Divergence in yields, particularly if it leads to an inverted yield curve, can signal economic instability or recession risks. During such periods, Bitcoin’s narrative as a safe-haven asset and alternative to traditional finance may gain traction.
4. Liquidity Considerations:
   • Lower short-term yields reduce borrowing costs, potentially leading to increased liquidity in the financial system. This liquidity often spills into risk assets, including Bitcoin, fueling upward price momentum.

Broader Market Insights

The impact of yield divergence extends beyond Bitcoin to other areas of the financial ecosystem:

• Stock Market: Lower short-term yields typically boost equities by reducing borrowing costs and supporting valuation multiples. However, rising long-term yields can pressure growth stocks, particularly those sensitive to higher discount rates.
• Debt Sustainability: Higher long-term yields increase the cost of financing for governments and corporations, potentially straining heavily indebted entities and creating ripple effects across global markets.
• Economic Outlook: The divergence could reflect market expectations of slower near-term growth coupled with longer-term inflationary pressures, signaling potential stagflation risks.

Related: What Bitcoin Price History Predicts for February 2025

Takeaways for Bitcoin Investors

For Bitcoin investors, understanding the interplay between Treasury yields and macroeconomic trends is essential for informed decision-making. Here are some key takeaways:

• Monitor Monetary Policy: Keep a close eye on Federal Reserve announcements and economic data. A dovish pivot could create tailwinds for Bitcoin, while tighter policy might pose short-term challenges.
• Diversify and Hedge: Rising long-term yields could lead to volatility across asset classes. Diversifying into Bitcoin as part of a broader portfolio strategy may help hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.
• Leverage Bitcoin’s Narrative: In an environment of fiscal deficits and monetary easing, Bitcoin’s story as a non-inflationary store of value becomes more compelling. Educating new investors on this narrative could drive further adoption.

Conclusion

The divergence in Treasury yields underscores shifting market expectations around growth, inflation, and monetary policy—factors that have far-reaching implications for Bitcoin and broader financial markets. For investors, understanding these dynamics and positioning accordingly can unlock opportunities to capitalize on Bitcoin’s unique role in a rapidly changing economic landscape. As always, staying informed and proactive is key to navigating these complex times.

For ongoing access to live data, advanced analytics, and exclusive content, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough independent research before making investment decisions.

JUST IN: BlackRock files to allow in-kind creations and redemptions for its spot Bitcoin ETF! pic.twitter.com/SSigX4utRG

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 24, 2025

What Are In-Kind Redemptions?

Under the proposed system, institutional players known as authorized participants (APs) – responsible for creating and redeeming ETF shares – could opt to exchange ETF shares directly for bitcoin rather than cash. This innovation eliminates the need to sell bitcoin to generate cash for redemptions, simplifying the process while cutting operational costs.

While this option would only be available to institutional participants and not retail investors, experts suggest that the improved efficiency could indirectly benefit everyday investors. By reducing operational hurdles, in-kind redemptions have the potential to make Bitcoin ETFs more streamlined and cost-efficient for all market participants.

Related: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Forecasts $700K Bitcoin Price Amid Inflation Worries

Why the Change?

The cash redemption model, implemented in January 2024 when spot Bitcoin ETFs were first approved by the SEC, was designed to keep financial institutions and brokers from handling bitcoin directly. This approach prioritized regulatory simplicity during the nascent stages of Bitcoin ETFs.

However, the rapid growth of the Bitcoin ETF market has created new opportunities to improve its infrastructure. With evolving regulations and a more mature digital asset ecosystem, Nasdaq and BlackRock now see a pathway to adopt a more efficient in-kind redemption model.

Benefits of In-Kind Redemptions

1. Operational Efficiency:
   • Reduces the complexity and number of steps in the redemption process.
   • Streamlines ETF operations, saving both time and costs.
2. Tax Advantages:
   • Avoiding the sale of bitcoin minimizes capital gains distributions, making ETFs more tax-efficient for institutional investors.
3. Market Stability:
   • Reduces sell pressure on bitcoin during redemptions, potentially stabilizing the asset’s price.

Regulatory and Market Context

Nasdaq’s proposal coincides with significant regulatory developments under the pro-Bitcoin Trump administration. Recent policy shifts, such as the repeal of Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB 121), have paved the way for broader cryptocurrency adoption. The removal of SAB 121 eliminated barriers that previously discouraged banks from offering cryptocurrency custody services, creating a more favorable environment for innovations like Nasdaq’s in-kind redemption model.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: A Market Leader

Since its 2024 launch, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF has emerged as a market leader, with over $60 billion in inflows. The fund’s consistent growth highlights institutional demand for Bitcoin investment products. Innovations like Nasdaq’s in-kind redemption model could further enhance IBIT’s appeal to institutional investors.

Note the consistent upward trend of green candles, reflecting strong and steady inflows.

Related: What Bitcoin Price History Predicts for February 2025

Conclusion

Nasdaq’s proposal to introduce in-kind redemptions for BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF represents a pivotal moment for the Bitcoin ETF market. By simplifying redemption processes, offering tax efficiencies, and reducing sell pressure on bitcoin, the model stands to significantly enhance the appeal and performance of Bitcoin ETFs for institutional investors.

As the Bitcoin ETF market matures and regulatory support continues to grow, innovations like this are poised to drive further adoption. If approved, Nasdaq’s proposal could mark a critical step forward, solidifying Bitcoin ETFs as a cornerstone of institutional digital asset investment while indirectly benefiting retail participants.

With a favorable regulatory climate and growing institutional interest, the future of Bitcoin ETFs looks brighter than ever.

There is something to the stereotype of naive dreamers and idealists, or cold hard realists and cynics. Stereotypes don’t just come into being baselessly, there is a kernel of truth to them, otherwise they would not have spread virally as an idea in the first place. But they, as well as the worldviews they espouse, are also exaggerated beyond that kernel.

Bitcoin is currently stuck in a game of tug of war between the naive idealists and the jaded cynics.

On one hand, the idealists argue that we already won. We don’t have to do anything, Bitcoin is magically guaranteed success. It’s already going to take over the world, everyone is going to own it, it is the best store of value ever. That’s all it needs to win and succeed. No improvements needed.

On the other hand, the cynics argue that we’ve lost, or are going to. That short of a total overhaul changing Bitcoin drastically, there is no way Bitcoin can succeed in the world. It will become captured and useless. “Who knows where to start?” is the response to asking for what improvements are needed.

Both of these extremes dominating the public dialogue sweeps attention away from two important things, the reality of what can already be done with what we have, and how substantially that reality can be expanded with even very small and simple improvements.

As things stand right now, Bitcoin to have any degree of censorship resistance and privacy for a big portion of the world would depend on custodians. The best we can do in that regard is lots of small and local chaumian ecash mints, but to run an ecash mint requires running a Lightning node.

Lightning is complicated, and screwing up and losing the most recent channel state can lose all of your money. The design allows your counterparty to steal all of your funds if you try to use an old channel state after updating it. CTV + CSFS would give us LN-Symmetry, a type of Lightning channel giving a new way for channels to work. Instead of using an old state allowing the other party to take all your money, LN-Symmetry channels would allow them to just “cut through” all the intermediary states and spend your old state into the most recent one on-chain, ensuring everyone gets the correct amount of money.

That one small change (and that is by no means all CTV + CSFS enables) would radically change the landscape of who would be capable and willing to run a local ecash mint. The risk of losing everyone’s money through incompetence would almost disappear.

This one small new functionality would heavily improve Bitcoin’s odds of staying private and censorship resistant. Does it scale self custody to the whole world? No. Does it drastically improve Bitcoin’s value despite store of value maximalists’ claim improvement isn’t needed or possible? Absolutely.

Bitcoiners need to stop focusing solely on the extremes and poles when it comes to possibility in this space, there is a wide open field mostly unexplored between them. If we really want to know our odds of success, the limits of what we actually can and can't do with Bitcoin, then we need to explore that field. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

The document outlines the ways in which the U.S. government will embrace “digital assets” and support the rights of citizens and businesses to engage with “cryptocurrencies” and “blockchain technology.”

Bitcoin isn’t mentioned once in the document.

Most concerningly, it’s not mentioned in the portion of the document that addresses the potential for the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets (also established via the EO) to create a “stockpile” of digital assets.

Here’s exactly how it reads:

“The Working Group shall evaluate the potential creation and maintenance of a national digital asset stockpile and propose criteria for establishing such a stockpile, potentially derived from cryptocurrencies lawfully seized by the Federal Government through its law enforcement efforts.”

Bitcoin is one of 17 digital assets the Federal Government has seized.

"stockpile" is jargon that means holding what they have, but not necessarily buying anything

according to @arkham, here's all the coins that the USG holds over $1m pic.twitter.com/CtLEuP5utA

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) January 23, 2025

The idea that the government would hold onto the 16 other crypto assets the government is holding is both silly and pointless, as none of those other assets were designed to be a store of value, and a chunk of them are just digital versions of the ever-debasing U.S. dollar.

In other words, there’s no reason for the U.S. to stockpile digital assets that are perpetually losing value versus bitcoin. Without even getting into the features that differentiate bitcoin from the other assets on the list above — like its hard-coded perfect scarcity or its network’s level of decentralization — one needs to only take note of the fact that no digital asset has ever made subsequent highs versus bitcoin in consecutive bull markets to understand why it makes sense to only hold bitcoin.

I mean, even someone whose company evaluates shitcoins for a living agrees:

I didn’t donate $12 million to Kamala or cost the GOP three additional Senate seats like Ripple did.

But I’m still gonna try to help @realDonaldTrump and team understand why XRP is the poster child for why we shouldn’t have a national crypto reserve.

Bitcoin Reserve or nothing.

— Ryan Selkis (d/acc) ???????? (@twobitidiot) January 24, 2025

So, please President Trump, beef up the bitcoin stockpile by swapping the 16 other digital assets you’re holding for bitcoin, and let’s call it a day. Surely, you’ve seen how well the bitcoin-only approach has worked out for President Bukele, with whom you spoke just the other day.

It’s time to show the world that we understand that bitcoin is the savings technology and that everything else is, well, something else.

Last night, President Trump signed the “Digital Assets” executive order (EO), and let’s just say Bitcoiners are feeling... sour. Initially, rumors swirled that this might be the long anticipated Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) legislation. But nope — not even close. Bitcoin reserve didn’t get a single mention.

Instead, the EO said:

"The Working Group shall evaluate the potential creation and maintenance of a national digital asset stockpile and propose criteria for establishing such a stockpile, potentially derived from cryptocurrencies lawfully seized by the Federal Government through its law enforcement efforts."

Translation: This EO looks like a vague "let’s study shitcoins" roadmap rather than a bold step toward a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. If you were hoping for a nation state orange pill moment, this ain’t it.

But before you rage tweet, take a deep breath. There is a silver lining. The EO does outlaw CBDCs — a huge win for freedom money and a more Bitcoin-aligned future.

And, as Senator Cynthia Lummis reminded us yesterday, her Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill is “a BIG lift”:

Why is this good news? Let’s break it down:

• Executive Orders Are Fragile: EOs are quick to implement but can be easily reversed by the next administration. They’re political Post-it Notes, not permanent fixes.
• Legislation Is Durable: Laws passed through both houses of Congress are far harder to repeal. Lummis’ long term strategy aims to cement Bitcoin’s role in the U.S. economy for generations, not just the next election cycle. She is taking the low time preference route, and I salute her for that.

Senator Lummis said it herself in an X DM she allowed me to share:

“Even if the EO had been an outright Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the next administration (after Trump) could undo it (what’s done administratively can generally be undone administratively). So, in order to get the 20-year minimum HODL, which my bill calls for, and meaningfully address America’s debt, we have to go through the legislative process (passage through both the House and Senate) to get it to the President’s desk for signature.

It’s really important that we have momentum for a marathon, not a sprint. I don’t want people getting discouraged. The trajectory is to the moon but we have to stick with it and work the process. Lots to do but the EO was a great jumping-off point to get us there.”

So yes, the EO feels like a quick win for crypto execs eager to pump their bags. But the real fight for Bitcoin’s future is just beginning.

A congressionally approved SBR is better than an SBR via Executive Order. Full stop!

Bitcoin has always thrived in adversity. Whether it’s bans, restrictions, or now the "national digital asset stockpile" nonsense, Bitcoin’s resilience is unmatched. As Senator Lummis works to push the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill through Congress, individual states are already leading the charge. States are introducing Bitcoin-specific reserve legislation, not vague "digital asset" plans.

Meanwhile, global momentum is building. Putin didn’t say, "no one can control digital assets," he said “no one can control Bitcoin”. Nation states aren’t about to FOMO into $TRUMP or FARTCOIN. They’re watching, learning, and inching closer to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin wins because it is superior money. Every piece of news, even setbacks, is ultimately bullish for Bitcoin because it exposes weaknesses in fiat and strengthens Bitcoin’s narrative. So stay patient. The slow burn will be worth it.

See you in Vegas — and remember: best money wins.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

In a recent announcement, Best in Slot, the infrastructure company powering some of the most popular Bitcoin applications and wallets like Xverse and Liquidium, revealed that BRC-20s are getting an upgrade.

Dubbed BRC2.0, it’s expected to go live on Bitcoin Testnet in Q1 of 2025, with the aim to bring “smart contracts” to BRC-20s, enabling them to compete with Bitcoin sidechain designs.

In short, the “BRC20 Programmable Module” is designed to “unlock infinite new use cases for native assets on Bitcoin—including seamless DeFi, RWAs, DAOs, stablecoins, and more—without relying on multisig bridges or L2s.”

After many years in the space, we can all agree that we’ve heard promises like this before. However, metaprotocols have one distinguishable advantage: they are fully on-chain, rather than relying on entirely separate chains with new trust assumptions. Sure, metaprotocols may not be the best approach to decentralizing the token economy on Bitcoin, but they’re a start.

Runes suffered from overwhelmingly high expectations before their launch, and this is an opportunity for BRCs to make a comeback. No matter your stance on tokens on Bitcoin, competition between different standards will ultimately bring more efficiency and reduce on-chain bloat—something we can all agree is desirable.

The real question is this: for regular Bitcoiners who use Bitcoin purely as a monetary network, do we really need to go through this again? On-chain congestion, useless pump-and-dump schemes, skyrocketing fees...

My answer is: absolutely!

First, as Bitcoiners, we’re supposed to support free markets. Having additional fee-paying users is literally the best possible outcome for Bitcoin’s survival. Miners have just gone through another halving, and keeping mining profitable is the only way to prevent centralization in the hands of subsidized actors (whether governments or financial markets—yes, miners issuing unlimited loans to buy machines will not last forever).

For context, according to CoinDesk, Solana's validators experienced a record influx of over 100,000 SOL, worth nearly $25.8 million, in fees and tips due to intense trading activity of the TRUMP and MELANIA tokens.

Second, the Pandora’s box has already been opened. Tokens on Bitcoin are here to stay. If users desire additional programmability, who has the authority to stop it? (Aside from pro-censorship thinkbois, of course.)

As Bitcoin's ecosystem evolves, the introduction of the BRC-20 upgrade presents a compelling case for why it might eclipse the Runes token standard. Here are several reasons why:

1. The primary allure of BRC2.0 lies in its promise to enhance efficiency. With smart contract functionality, BRC-2.0 tokens could handle complex operations directly on the Bitcoin blockchain, potentially reducing the need for additional layers or sidechains. This could lead to more compact transactions, reducing on-chain bloat, a problem Runes have been criticized for due to their initial hype and subsequent congestion. This efficiency could be a game-changer for Bitcoin's scalability, offering a streamlined approach to tokenization without altering the core protocol's security or decentralization.
   
   
2. BRC2.0 is designed to integrate with existing Bitcoin infrastructure. Thanks to collaborations with the likes of the Layer 1 Foundation, it could improve user experience and interoperability. Unlike Runes, which faced challenges in user adoption due to complex minting processes and bad UX, BRC2.0 aims to provide a more user-friendly interface for token creation and interaction. This could lead to broader acceptance and use, making Bitcoin a more attractive platform for developers and users alike.

My default position on anything new related to Bitcoin is always caution. We’ll have to wait for the actual specifics of this new protocol to be disclosed, but I’m excited about the prospect of more efficient DeFi use cases on Bitcoin—not on lesser chains.

If you’re still skeptical, I’ll leave you with this question: If tokens on Bitcoin are inevitable, what is worse?

• Metaprotocols using Bitcoin’s block space in exchange for fees, without changing the network’s rules?
• Or Bitcoiners bridging their hard-earned Bitcoin to centralized, competing chains to access the same token markets?

As a Bitcoin Maxi, I want all the fees. I want all the users. Bitcoin Maxis should be FEE REVENUE Maxis, as long as the core ethos of the underlying network remains unchanged (looking at feline enjoyyyyers).

My TL;DR:

• Wait and see what BRC2.0 has to offer. Will it truly become programmable in a way that’s secure enough for Bitcoiners to trust?
• Runes may become irrelevant if BRCs stage a real comeback, especially with better UX.

• Let the miners rejoice with degen fees.
• Tokens on Bitcoin without changing the rules are better than tokens on Bitcoin that require new opcodes or altered rules.
• Grateful for all the gigabrain devs building on Bitcoin apps instead of vaporware chains.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Articles I write may discuss topics or companies that are part of my firm’s investment portfolio (UTXO Management). The views expressed are solely my own and do not represent the opinions of my employer or its affiliates. I’m receiving no financial compensation for these takes. Readers should not consider this content as financial advice or an endorsement of any particular company or investment. Always do your own research before making financial decisions.

BREAKING: ???????? SEC OFFICIALLY RESCINDS SAB 121, WHICH PREVENTED BANKS FROM CUSTODYING #BITCOIN pic.twitter.com/VCnggkCGmL

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 23, 2025

Introduced in March 2022 under former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, SAB 121 required institutions holding bitcoin and crypto assets for customers to record those holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets. This accounting standard created significant operational and financial burdens for banks and custodians, effectively discouraging them from providing bitcoin-related services. The rule was widely criticized by the crypto industry and lawmakers, with SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce famously calling it a "pernicious weed" in April 2023.

"Bye, bye SAB 121! It's not been fun," Peirce wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Thursday, following the SEC's issuance of Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 122, which formally rescinds the guidance.

The SEC's move to rescind SAB 121 comes just days after Gensler's resignation and marks the start of a new era under Republican leadership. Acting SEC Chair Mark Uyeda, who assumed the role on Monday, quickly announced the formation of a crypto task force led by Peirce to craft clearer and more practical regulatory frameworks for the industry.

"To date, the SEC has relied primarily on enforcement actions to regulate crypto retroactively and reactively, often adopting novel and untested legal interpretations along the way," the agency acknowledged in a statement on Tuesday.

With the removal of SAB 121, major banks are now expected to move swiftly to integrate bitcoin and crypto custody services into their offerings. This is a significant milestone in the financialization of bitcoin, bringing it closer to mainstream adoption. 

“Except to the extent required by law, agencies are hereby prohibited from undertaking any action to establish, issue, or promote CBDCs within the jurisdiction of the United States or abroad,” the order announced. “Except to the extent required by law, any ongoing plans or initiatives at any agency related to the creation of a CBDC within the jurisdiction of the United States shall be immediately terminated, and no further actions may be taken to develop or implement such plans or initiatives.”

The new EO will also establish a presidential working group to create a federal regulatory framework governing digital assets (including stablecoins), and evaluate the creation of a strategic national digital assets stockpile.

“The Working Group’s report shall consider provisions for market structure, oversight, consumer protection, and risk management,” stated the order. “The Working Group shall evaluate the potential creation and maintenance of a national digital asset stockpile and propose criteria for establishing such a stockpile, potentially derived from cryptocurrencies lawfully seized by the Federal Government through its law enforcement efforts.”

The EO defines the term “digital asset” as any digital representation of value that is recorded on a distributed ledger — which would include cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, digital tokens, and stablecoins.

The stockpile is expected to include or be fully in bitcoin. Last summer at The Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville, Donald Trump pledged to create a national strategic bitcoin stockpile using the bitcoin already held by the government obtained from hacks and seizures. According to Arkham Intelligence data, the U.S. currently holds 198,109 bitcoin worth over $20.1 billion.

BREAKING: ???????? DONALD TRUMP PLEDGES TO NEVER SELL #BITCOIN AND HOLD IT AS A STRATEGIC RESERVE ASSET IF ELECTED PRESIDENT pic.twitter.com/bbPRxlZfGZ

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 27, 2024

Following Trump’s speech at the conference, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis presented legislation to also create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, but in a different manner. Her bill would see the U.S. government purchase 200,000 bitcoin per year, for 5 years, until it has bought a total of 1,000,000 BTC. This legislation, however, would have to pass through both the House of Representatives and the Senate before making its way to the president’s desk for final approval.

So far, President Trump has kept his word on the Bitcoin related promises he made on the campaign trail. Earlier this week, President Trump gave a full and unconditional pardon to Bitcoin pioneer and Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, which Trump pledged to accomplish in addition to creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, banning CBDC, creating a working group/advisory council, and more.

The full details of the executive order can be found here.

A Major Shift Toward Bitcoin 

At the core of the order is an explicit policy to support the responsible growth and use of digital assets, championing citizens’ right to access and utilize open public blockchain networks without interference. For Bitcoin enthusiasts, this represents a monumental endorsement from the highest levels of government. The Executive Order stipulates that no lawful activity on these decentralized networks should be censored, while also clarifying that individuals must be permitted to develop software, maintain self-custody of digital assets, and participate in mining or transaction validation.

New Life for Dollar-Backed Stablecoins

The administration also underscores the importance of legitimate dollar-backed stablecoins, highlighting them as a strategic asset to safeguard the sovereignty and global role of the U.S. dollar. With digital currency usage accelerating around the world, this renewed push for stablecoins signals a forward-thinking approach intended to keep America’s currency competitive in global markets.

Regulatory Clarity & Innovation-Friendly Framework

One of the key challenges the blockchain industry has faced is regulatory uncertainty. The Executive Order calls for technology-neutral regulations and clearly delineated roles for agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). By directing a cross-agency effort to rescind or modify outdated rules and develop more effective frameworks, the Trump Administration aims to foster an environment where blockchain startups and established companies can innovate without fear of sudden enforcement actions.

Prohibition of CBDCs

In a decisive move that sets the United States apart from many other nations, the order categorically prohibits the creation, issuance, and promotion of Central Bank Digital Currencies. Citing concerns over financial system stability, individual privacy, and national sovereignty, the Executive Order halts any ongoing or planned CBDC-related projects within federal agencies. This stance signals an unambiguous preference for open, permissionless blockchain networks—like Bitcoin—over government-controlled digital currencies.

Revoking Previous Policies

The order also revokes Executive Order 14067 of March 9, 2022, along with a corresponding Treasury Department framework published in July 2022—both from the previous administration. By rescinding these policies, President Trump is effectively clearing the path for a pro-crypto regulatory climate that prioritizes individual freedoms, innovation, and economic growth.

The President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets

To guide these efforts, the Executive Order establishes the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, chaired by the Special Advisor for AI and Crypto. This Working Group will include the Secretary of the Treasury, the Attorney General, and other top officials. Its mandate includes:

• Drafting a federal regulatory framework for digital assets and stablecoins, focusing on market structure, consumer protection, and oversight.
• Evaluating the creation of a national digital asset stockpile, derived from lawfully seized cryptocurrencies, to enhance the country’s strategic interests.

Within 180 days, the Working Group is expected to deliver a comprehensive report that will shape future legislative and regulatory proposals.

A Resounding Win for Bitcoin

For many within the Bitcoin community, this Executive Order marks a pivotal turning point. By ensuring the right to self-custody, explicitly protecting blockchain networks from censorship, and ruling out government-sponsored digital currencies, the Trump Administration has placed Bitcoin at the heart of the American digital economy.

As the United States steps confidently into this new era, both retail and institutional investors are poised to benefit from clearer rules and stronger protections—while innovative blockchain companies see a fertile environment for growth. By endorsing open, permissionless networks and stablecoins that reinforce the U.S. dollar’s global standing, the nation appears ready to embrace a future in which Bitcoin will play a leading role.

Ross is now free. I predict this will be the one good thing to come out of this administration in the grand scheme of things. The reasons behind this pardon were purely political, but regardless of that I am incredibly happy to see Ross reunited with his family and loved ones. Even taking all the accusations against him at prima facie, both those actually charged and those not, Ross has unquestionably served his time.

Actual murders and rapists serve a tiny fraction of the sentence that was levied against Ross, even after multiple offenses in some cases. His sentencing was entirely political, and in no way proportional to the charges brought against him. The severity was so high for one reason: to set an example.

He is not the only example governments have tried to make since 2013. The Samourai Wallet team are currently under house arrest awaiting trial for hosting the backend for a 100% self-custodial service. Roman Sterlingov is in jail for running a centralized mixer, with no evidence other than flawed blockchain heuristics. The Tornado Cash case has developers dealing with cases and jail time in multiple jurisdictions.

All of these go far beyond the pale of what happened to Ross, in terms of legal standing. Ross’s sentence was insanely disproportionate, but the legal basis itself for these other cases is non-existent. They charged them anyway. Some of them, they convicted them anyways. These people are sitting in jail, just like Ross, anyways.

The government is not going to stop making examples. It doesn’t matter that Trump enjoys the benefits of the unregulated monetary extraction possible in this space, it doesn’t matter that Wall Street and D.C. see value they can take advantage of, none of that matters.

These power brokers and figure heads realizing they can set up a grift, or skim money out of the economy being built here, doesn’t change anything. It doesn’t make them fans of privacy. It doesn’t make them fans of true sovereignty for the individual. It doesn’t make them fans of actually free markets that don’t cater to corporate interests preferentially.

We need tools to actually facilitate all of these things, but building them means you are a potential target.

If you actually care about these things, you know this isn’t over. One man who was unjustly imprisoned is free, and that is an amazing thing. He can see his parents again, his wife, his friends, and that is truly a priceless accomplishment.

But this is not over. Not by a long shot. The music came on, people switched chairs, and it stopped again. But it’s still the same game being played, and we can’t lose sight of that. 

Technically, Donald Trump broke his campaign promise by not freeing Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht on day one of his presidency. (No, inauguration day is not “day zero.”) But as I explained in my previous Take, I wasn’t expecting a literal first day pardon anyways. Even day two exceeds my expectations. Trump delivered, and I’m very glad he did.

When I first heard about Silk Road in early 2013, I was immediately intrigued by the concept of buying and selling drugs anonymously online. To this day, I think darknet markets are the best intermediary step before the war on drugs is ended: It removes dealers from street corners while providing users some level of quality assurance through a public rating system.

Discovering Silk Road was also how I first learned about Bitcoin. I started writing about the digital currency a few months later, and am still at it today. In a way, I owe my career to Ulbricht.

That Ulbricht was sentenced to spend the rest of his life in prison was a miscarriage of justice in my view. Even if you believe he is guilty of everything he’s been convicted of (all non-violent crimes), over a decade behind bars should be long enough.

To be sure, I don’t believe Trump actually cares about Ulbricht; he could have freed him during his first term if that was the case. And Trump certainly has no intent of ending the war on drugs; if anything, he’s about to escalate it by designating cartels to be terrorist organizations and imposing the death penalty on drug dealers. Trump promised to pardon Ulbricht because that would benefit him politically — but to his credit, he kept his word.

Ross is finally free. Well done President Trump, and everyone else who helped make this happen.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin Data Driven Analysis & On-Chain Roundup

Miner Recovery

The Puell Multiple, a measure comparing miners’ daily USD revenue to its yearly average, suggests that Bitcoin's fundamental network strength remains strong. Historically, after a halving event, miner revenue experiences a significant dip due to the 50% block reward reduction. However, the Puell Multiple recently climbed above the key value of 1, indicating a recovery and a potentially bullish phase.

View Live Chart ????

Previous cycles show that crossing and retesting the value of 1 often precedes major price rallies. This pattern is repeating, signaling strong market support from mining activity.

Substantial Upside Potential

The MVRV Z-Score, a metric analyzing Bitcoin’s market value relative to its realized value, or average accumulation price for all BTC, suggests current values remain well below historical peak regions, outlining considerable room for growth.

View Live Chart ????

A two-year rolling version of the MVRV Z-Score, which adjusts for evolving market dynamics, also shows bullish potential. Even by this adjusted measure, Bitcoin is far from previous cycle peak levels, leaving the door open for further price appreciation.

View Live Chart ????

Related: We're Repeating The 2017 Bitcoin Bull Cycle

Sustainable Sentiment

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is currently at a healthy and sustainable amount of Greedy sentiment, indicating greedy but sustainable sentiment. Historical data from the 2020-2021 bull cycle shows that greed levels around 80-90 can persist for months, supporting prolonged bullish momentum. Only when values approach extreme levels (95+) does the market typically face significant corrections.

View Live Chart ????

Network Activity

The Active Address Sentiment Indicator reveals a slight dip in network activity, suggesting retail investors have yet to fully re-enter the market. However, this could be a positive sign, indicating untapped retail demand that might fuel the next leg of the rally.

View Live Chart ????

Risk Appetite Shifts

Traditional market sentiment is showing improving signals. High Yield Credit appetite is increasing as the macro-economic environment shifts to a more risk-on outlook. Looking at corporate bonds that offer higher interest rates due to their lower credit ratings compared to investment-grade bonds. Historically, there has been a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s performance and periods of heightened global risk appetite, which have often aligned with bullish phases in Bitcoin’s price.

View Live Chart ????

Related: What Bitcoin Price History Predicts for February 2025

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics, market sentiment, and macro perspective all point to a continuation of the current bull market. While short-term volatility is always possible, the convergence of these indicators suggests that Bitcoin is well-positioned to reach and potentially surpass our current all-time high in the near future.

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Fink made this striking statement during a recent interview, explaining that Bitcoin’s potential for exponential growth is closely tied to fears of economic downturns and fiat currency devaluation. Fink described Bitcoin as an "international instrument" capable of mitigating localized economic fears.

JUST IN: $11.5 trillion BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says Bitcoin could go up to $700,000 if there is more fear of currency debasement and economic instability.pic.twitter.com/WOXclAsjDP

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 22, 2025

A Message to the Market

With BlackRock managing $11.5 trillion in assets, Fink’s words carry significant weight, sending a clear message to retail and institutional investors alike. His endorsement transcends personal opinion, serving as a market signal about Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. Long heralded as “digital gold,” Bitcoin is seen as a store of value that can protect wealth from inflation and governmental fiscal mismanagement. Fink’s recognition of this narrative could further accelerate its adoption among traditional investors.

Related: From Laser Eyes to Upside-Down Pics: The New Bitcoin Campaign to Flip Gold

A Timely Forecast

Fink’s prediction comes as global economies grapple with soaring inflation, escalating national debts, and geopolitical tensions that threaten currency stability. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins and decentralized structure, presents an alternative asset class that is immune to the inflationary pressures inherent in fiat currencies. In this climate, its value proposition becomes increasingly compelling.

BLACKROCK IS BACK.

THEY JUST BOUGHT $600 MILLION OF BITCOIN, THEIR LARGEST BUY SO FAR THIS YEAR. pic.twitter.com/QLAm5eaik4

— Arkham (@arkham) January 22, 2025

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: A Signal of Institutional Interest

BlackRock’s deepening involvement in Bitcoin reached a milestone on January 21, 2025, when the firm purchased $662 million worth of Bitcoin for its exchange-traded fund (ETF), their largest daily purchase so far this year. 

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) surpassed the firm's iShares Gold Trust (IAU) in net assets in October 2024. This milestone was achieved just months after IBIT's launch in January 2024, highlighting the rapid growth and increasing investor interest in Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds.

A Balanced Perspective

While Fink’s projection is undeniably bullish, it remains contingent on the continuation of current economic trends. If global economic stability improves or innovative financial systems emerge to alleviate fears of currency debasement, Bitcoin’s price trajectory may stabilize at a lower level. Nevertheless, Fink’s high-profile commentary underscores its growing role as a legitimate asset class.

Related: David Bailey Forecasts $1M Bitcoin Price During Trump Presidency

Bitcoin’s Next Chapter

Bitcoin’s evolution from a niche digital experiment to a mainstream financial instrument is accelerating. Fink’s remarks may signal a pivotal moment, not just for Bitcoin, but for its broader acceptance in traditional finance. For investors and enthusiasts, this is more than a vote of confidence—it’s a sign that the integration of Bitcoin into the global financial landscape is not only imminent but already underway.

As the world watches, Bitcoin’s role in redefining finance continues to grow. Fink’s prediction serves as a reminder that Bitcoin is no longer a fringe idea but a crucial player in the future of money.

Ulbricht is a freedom fighter to some, and a dangerous criminal to others. The former know Ulbricht as described in Forbes, “a principled libertarian and cypherpunk in the same vein as WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange and Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto”.

Ulbricht had a theory: that violent drug cartels would have no chance sustaining themselves in a free market environment where the state did not control the use of substances, as non-violent operations would simply outperform the violent ones based on demand.

Most who believe the latter, however, often base their opinion on claims that Ulbricht allegedly attempted to hire a hitman on a former Silk Road administrator, who stood accused of embezzling bitcoin from the site. While Ulbricht's supporters celebrate, critics are asking: why would an online community so vehemently defend an attempted murderer?

The controversies and outright corruption surrounding Ulbricht's prosecution should therefore not be forgotten.

The Charges Against Ulbricht

On February 5th 2015, a jury in the Southern District of New York found Ulbricht guilty of exclusively non-violent crimes, including several charges of narcotics distribution, computer hacking, conspiracy to run a criminal enterprise, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

The judge sentenced Ulbricht to two life sentences plus forty years without the possibility of parole – almost twice the sentence of the violent Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán.

The alleged murder for hire charges arose out of a different case, filed in May 2013 in Maryland. The indictment alleged that, based on chat logs obtained from the Silk Road site, Ulbricht attempted to murder Curtis Green for stealing bitcoin from the project.

As the chat logs read according to the indictment, Dread Pirate Roberts (DPR), the pseudonym attributed to Ulbricht, wrote to another Silk Road user, whom he believed to be a drug kingpin capable of ordering a hitman:

"I'd like to beat him up, [sic] then forced to send the bitcoins he stole back. [sic] like sit him down at his computer and make him do it."

A day later, the indictment states, DPR allegedly changed his mind, writing: "Can you change the order to execute rather than torture?"

According to the indictment, DPR stated that Green "was on the inside for a while, and now that he's been arrested, I'm afraid he'll give up info," allegedly adding that he had "never killed a man before, but this is the right move in this case."

A few days later, $40,000 were wired into the hitman's account, and DPR asked for "proof of death" via video or pictures to send the rest of the payment.

On February 21st 2013, the kingpin informed DPR that Green was dead – "they killed him this weekend," he wrote, telling him that he had died of asphyxiation, and that the body was completely destroyed to eliminate evidence.

Except the kingpin wasn't a kingpin. It was DEA Agent Carl Force who, as it would later turn out, liked to engage in a little criminal enterprise himself when granted the opportunity.

A Real Theft And A Fake Murder

During the course of the investigation, Green had been cooperating with law enforcement, giving DEA Agent Carl Force and Secret Service Agent Shaun Bridges access to the Silk Road site.

During one of law enforcement's sessions on Silk Road, a series of "sizeable thefts" occurred on the site, which would later be traced back to Bridges, who plead guilty to stealing $350,000 in bitcoin at the time of the theft, or $800,000 at the time of his guilty plea.

The account in question, operated by Bridges and in consultation with Force, had received "no less than 20,000 bitcoin", according to the complaint. Force, posing as the drug kingpin "Nob", then orchestrated the fake hit and, together with Bridges, faked Green's death.

Force went on to create the fake identity "Death from Above" to extort $250,000 from DPR, stating: "I know that you had something to do with [Green's] disappearance and death. Just wanted to let you know that I'm coming for you. [...] You are a dead man. Don't think you can elude me."

Bridges was sentenced to 24 months in prison to be served consecutively to a 71-month sentence he received for a similar crime in 2015, while Force was sentenced to 78 months in prison. Information on the corrupt agents was never made available to be used in Ulbricht's defense.

Who Is Dread Pirate Roberts

Dread Pirate Roberts, the pseudonym attributed to Ulbricht, is taken from the 1973 novel "The Princess Bride" by William Goldman, depicting an identity that is assumed by multiple characters. The identity Dread Pirate Roberts, as written by Goldman, is shared between pirates to intimidate opponents, and passed on in secret.

In the course of the public proceedings of the case, evidence mounted that Silk Road's DPR was not solely operated by Ulbricht. In a conversation with former friend Richard Bates, who helped Ulbricht set up the Silk Road site, Ulbricht responded with "glad that's not my problem anymore" when made aware of news coverage concerning the site.

During the trial, prosecutors attempted to stop the defense from questioning another law enforcement officer, special agent Jared Der-Yeghiayan of the Department of Homeland Security, who believed that DPR was actually Mark Kapeles – the former Mt. Gox CEO, who was later convicted for falsifying Mt. Gox records and inflating the exchange's supply by tens of millions.

Der-Yeghiayan had referred to an exclusive interview with DPR in Forbes, in which the pseudonymous Silk Road operator had stated that "he hadn’t actually created the Silk Road, but instead had befriended its creator and later acquired the site from him."

According to Der-Yeghiayan, DPR's writing sounded very much like that of his suspect, Mark Kapeles – and Der-Yeghiayan is not the only one alleging that DPR sounded like someone else. As former Dark Wallet developer Amir Taaki stated:

"Years ago, when I messaged the Silk Road, I had a conversation with the DPR – a very personal conversation where he was [talking] about how one day he hopes to be on the outside struggling for freedom together. You know, not having to hide his identity. One year [or] two years later when I messaged the guy — I’m pretty certain it was not the same guy. The tone was completely different. He had no recollection of the events that happened before, and his attitude to me was in stark contrast to the exuberant and wordy DPR of the early days.”

This argument was further backed by a pseudonymous Silk Road vendor, who stated that "there were 'at least two other people—if not three'—who were administering Silk Road." Der-Yeghiayan corroborates this belief in an email ten days before Ulbricht's arrest, stating that "we contributed to the other two admins getting away."

Silk Road employee Andrew Jones, who had established a 'secret handshake' with Ulbricht in 2012 to confirm his identity, did not believe that the late DPR was Ulbricht, either.

According to court documents, Jones would ask DPR for a book recommendation, to which the correct answer would be "anything by Rothbard" – an answer which DPR did not provide when asked a year later.

To add intellectual insult to operational injury, someone had logged in to DPR's account six weeks after Ulbricht's arrest, who was in federal custody at the time – which may have been the corrupt agents, who had administrative access to the site, or another DPR all together.

As stated by Green himself: "and to everybody that says 'were there multiple DPRs', absolutely there was – I was DPR once. So if I was, who else was?"

Regarding the murder-for-hire charges, Green stated that he did not believe Ulbricht would have ordered a hit on him. As Green stated in 2017:

"Ross Ulbricht got a raw deal. There is so much more on the Silk Road story than people know, and I can't yet talk about it. I don't believe Ross is dangerous or that it's in his character to order a hit on anyone. He should never have gotten that horrible sentence."

To cut to the chase: yes, Ross Ulbricht operated Silk Road. No, Ross Ulbricht was likely not the only person with access to the DPR account. Ross Ulbricht was never convicted of the murder-for-hire charges. The case was dismissed in 2018 with prejudice, meaning that it could never be filed again.

For all we know, we are all Dread Pirate Roberts.

As parade-goers stop by Bitcoin Bay’s tent along the parade route, they’re welcomed with food, drinks, and an invitation to learn more about this mission-driven organization. But how did Bitcoin Bay get here? How did a small group of Bitcoin fans grow into an organization big enough to earn a spot in Tampa’s biggest celebration?

Growing a Bitcoin Economy in Tampa Bay

Bitcoin Bay’s journey started in October 2021 when one of our founders, @bennyhodl, hosted the first Bitdevs meetup. It began with just a few people talking about Bitcoin outside a local restaurant, but it soon grew into something much bigger. We had a vision: to make Bitcoin Bay the go-to place for everything Bitcoin in Tampa Bay. We wanted to create a local economy powered by Bitcoin, where people could connect, learn, and spend their bitcoin.

With a clear mission and a committed team, Bitcoin Bay quickly gained steam. Weekly meetups turned into a strong network where newcomers, developers, and business owners could connect, learn, and share ideas. Bitcoin Bay became more than just a meetup; we were a resource for Bitcoin knowledge and support in the region.

The 2023 Miami Bitcoin Conference was a watershed moment for The Bay. Competing in the first Bitcoin Games against grassroots meetup groups from across the country, Bitcoin Bay won the grand prize of 1 BTC. But instead of keeping the entire prize, we chose to share half of it with other Bitcoin meetups in a follow up competition.

At the time, we had no idea what the ripple effects of this would be. We’ve since consulted with and inspired other groups to take on similar missions. Denver Bitdevs, one of the recipients, has even opened their own Bitcoin community hub called “The Space.” By sharing our prize, we showed that Bitcoin Bay is here not only for our own growth but to support Bitcoin communities everywhere.

By the end of 2023, we became the world’s first Bitcoin-only meetup to receive 501(c)(3) nonprofit status. This recognition helped us grow even more and allowed us to reach more people in the Tampa Bay area.

Building a Strong, Supportive Community

Since the beginning, Bitcoin Bay has made a real impact across Tampa Bay. Our members support each other’s businesses, like HVAC services, estate planning, and even local beef suppliers. Our ethos of Community, Prosperity, and Resilience guides us as we build a connected network where people can rely on each other.

One of our proudest achievements was hosting the Sound Money Soiree, our first charity gala attended by 120 people, including business leaders, Bitcoiners, and community leaders. Together, we raised nearly $30,000 to support our mission. This money has gone toward expanding our outreach and growing our community, helping us make a bigger impact in Tampa Bay.

Education is a major part of Bitcoin Bay’s mission. Through partnerships with the University of Tampa and the University of South Florida, we’re bringing Bitcoin education to students. We provide guest lectures, internships, and this summer, we’re hosting our first Bitcoin summer camps. By investing in the next generation, we’re making sure Bitcoin’s potential continues to grow in Tampa Bay.

Our community’s resilience was tested when hurricanes Helene and Milton struck. Bitcoin Bay members quickly came together to help. Volunteers formed cleanup teams to clear debris, while others helped coordinate food, water, and gas for those in need. This showed that Bitcoin Bay’s mission to build a strong, resilient community is more than just words—it’s a way of life.

Looking Ahead: The Journey Continues

As Bitcoin Bay's Pirate float sails down the Gasparilla Parade route, it’s more than a celebration—it’s a statement. We are here to build, educate, and empower. This float represents a year of hard work, resilience, and community spirit, and it marks the beginning of our next chapter.

"We’re excited to bring Bitcoin to the Gasparilla Parade and share our mission with Tampa Bay," says President Wesley Schlemmer. "Bitcoin Bay is more than an organization; it’s a movement shaping the future of our local community and beyond."

To learn more about the Bitcoin Bay Foundation, Gasparilla event details, and how you can get involved in their community efforts, please visit:

* Website: bitcoinbay.foundation

* Twitter: @bitcoinbaytpa

* Nostr: npub1tampasjf5z0rllvrh8nlqckrjtzzj9590uljzeuu6ymsr8hq9pjsrw0ynt

* Email: Wesley@bitcoinbay.foundation

Together, we're building a better future with Bitcoin. We invite all Bitcoiners to join us on this exciting journey and make history with us!

This is a guest post by Bitcoin Bay Foundation. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Catering to developers, engineers, and innovators, the event promises to be a valuable experience both for veteran contributors in the space as well as developers looking to dip their toes into the Bitcoin ecosystem. 

What to Expect:

• Workshops and Technical Sessions: Learn from top-tier professionals in the Bitcoin space. Sessions will cover a range of topics including advanced cryptography, wallet development, Layer 2 solutions, and the latest Bitcoin protocol improvements.
• Live Hacking Challenges: Developers will be able to participate in live coding challenges, contributing to innovative Bitcoin-related projects and protocols.
• Networking Opportunities: Meet and exchange ideas with like-minded individuals, including developers, engineers, and industry leaders working at the forefront of Bitcoin's evolution.

If you are a developer building in the Bitcoin space, or interested in getting started, this event is a must attend. More information can be found, and tickets purchased, here. 

Don't miss out on your chance for a valuable in person learning experience with some of the smartest developers in the ecosystem. 

In the world of decentralized networks, the battle lines are drawn not just between different blockchains but within the communities they spawn. Bitcoin, having weathered its own civil war, has emerged stronger, proving its resilience and commitment to the principles of decentralization, freedom, and Truth. Ethereum, on the other hand, is currently embroiled in internal strife, revealing a stark contrast in community ethos and leadership philosophy.

Vitalik Buterin's recent tweets concerning the Ethereum Foundation drama are a testament to this. They expose a community that seems to prioritize PERCEPTION over substance, a hallmark of the bureaucratic and "woke" culture that has infiltrated society at large. Ethereum's approach, under Buterin's guidance, reflects a refusal to adopt the "bronze age mindset" that has been pivotal in Bitcoin's success. This mentality, often derided as "toxic maximalism" by outsiders (the term “maximalism” was coined by Vitalik himself, by the way), champions unapologetic truths and a fierce defense of core values like decentralization and security.

Toxicity, in this context, becomes a virtue. It favors those willing to speak uncomfortable truths and maintain the integrity of the blockchain's original vision. Choosing the path of bureaucratic, HR-friendly discussions leads to a landscape where managing perceptions overshadows achieving actual results. Ethereum's current predicament is not just a long time coming but perhaps a necessary wake-up call for those who have strayed from the path of what blockchain technology was meant to achieve.

In contrast, Ethereum's current turmoil showcases a leadership that is cracking under pressure, revealing Buterin's true colors - not for the first time.

Bitcoin, unlike Ethereum, does not have a Foundation, and this is by design. Does this make our governance process a hundred times harder? Absolutely, and that's precisely the point. Even though I might not always agree with the criticism leveled at Bitcoin Core, I recognize the value in knowing they can be replaced at any given moment. The Ethereum Foundation has always been a magnet for centralized control, and the power vacuum its collapse would leave will sow chaos. Bitcoin's governance might be organized chaos, but Ethereum is now facing a spell of unorganized chaos that could further tarnish its reputation. I'd love to see Vitalik return to Bitcoin; he's undeniably intelligent. Yet, his current role as the "man in control" is exactly why Bitcoin avoids having a public figurehead. The plebs, the node runners - are in control, and that's the better way.

The “.ETH” community's apparent lack of commitment to these foundational blockchain principles suggests a future where Ethereum might not just suffer greatly from its civil war but could also lose its relevance.

The irony here is palpable; while Ethereum struggles, other platforms like Solana stand to gain.

But it seems like those making this migration do not learn from their mistakes. They recognize the ugly side of Ethereum and Vitalik, but instead of seeking the true axioms of a good network, they move to an even more centralized alternative.

However, this shift is likely temporary. The so-called "On-Chain refugees" fleeing the chaos of Ethereum will eventually find their way back to Bitcoin, the original and only cryptocurrency that has consistently delivered on its promises without the drama. They need one more rug pull on the Solana side before they finally end their journey, like all of us - Bitcoin only.

This drama within Ethereum has been brewing for years, and while it might be late in coming, it's not soon enough for Humanity. The time wasted building upon what some might argue is a fundamentally flawed system could have been better spent advancing technologies that genuinely uphold the ideals of decentralization and freedom.

As Ethereum continues to navigate its internal conflicts, it serves as a cautionary tale. It underscores the importance of a community that values Truth over narrative, freedom over control, and decentralization over centralized decision-making. Bitcoin emerging stronger from its civil war wasn't just about survival; it was about proving the soundness of its principles. Ethereum's ongoing struggle might just be the catalyst needed for the blockchain community to return to those roots, recognizing that in the realm of digital currencies, only those built on genuine, unyielding principles will stand the test of time.

Bonus Take - PLEASE make this happen Nic: https://x.com/nic__carter/status/1881029931011903772

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Articles Guillaume writes in particular may discuss topics or companies that are part of his firm’s investment portfolio (UTXO Management). The views expressed are solely his own and do not represent the opinions of his employer or its affiliates. He’s receiving no financial compensation for these takes. Readers should not consider this content as financial advice or an endorsement of any particular company or investment. Always do your own research before making financial decisions.

Yesterday, President Trump signed a full pardon for Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht. This was a tremendous victory for the Bitcoin (and Libertarian) movement.

It proved with some time, effort and political coordination, the Bitcoin network state, to borrow a term from Balaji Srinivasan, can facilitate real and important change via the highest levels of power at the nation-state level.

While we should surely take a moment to celebrate, we should also keep in mind others in the Bitcoin and broader crypto space are currently facing unfair sentencing and we should be acting on their behalf. These others include the developers of Samourai Wallet, who are currently wrongfully being charged with operating an unlicensed money transmitting business.

In this case, not only is the freedom of the developers involved at stake but our ability to use the privacy tools they’ve created.

Now we have to do #freesamorai to ensure noncustodial wallets remain legal! https://t.co/Jq1UDbe9dl

— Matt Corallo (@TheBlueMatt) January 22, 2025

And so this time around, let us right wrongs before they result in unfair sentencing, like we saw with Ross.

To do this, you can donate to the Peer-to-Peer Rights Fund to help fund the defense for the Samourai case (and others like it). We have to do our part to stop regulatory overreach and to protect the freedom of those who have helped to further enable our own via the tools they’ve created.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

In a landmark decision that sent waves through the Bitcoin community, President Donald Trump has granted a full and unconditional pardon to Ross Ulbricht, the creator of the Silk Road darknet marketplace. Delivered on January 21, 2025—one day later than his campaign promise—this pardon goes beyond merely commuting Ulbricht’s sentence. It’s a symbolic gesture, perhaps acknowledging the delay with goodwill. For Bitcoiners, this represents more than justice for one man—it’s a signal of potential alignment between the administration and the values Bitcoin embodies.

The pardon follows a flurry of executive orders signed on Trump’s first day back in office, underscoring the administration’s focus on a myriad of national priorities. However, this act stands out, particularly for Bitcoiners, as a commitment to keeping promises, sparking hope for pro-Bitcoin legislation and progress on issues like the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Ross Ulbricht’s Silk Road wasn’t just a marketplace—it was Bitcoin’s first major use case. Launched in 2011, when Bitcoin was still in its infancy, the Silk Road demonstrated the revolutionary potential of decentralized, censorship-resistant money. While its operations drew criticism for facilitating illicit trade, it also showcased Bitcoin’s ability to enable peer-to-peer, anonymous transactions.

Ulbricht’s double life sentence became a symbol of overreach—a clash between an inflexible system and the frontier spirit of technological innovation. For many in the Bitcoin community, his case represented the broader struggle for autonomy, privacy, and the freedom to innovate. His pardon is now being celebrated as a victory for these principles.

The news of Ulbricht’s pardon has energized Bitcoiners, but it also highlights unresolved issues. The Samourai Wallet developers could still face prison time for developing Bitcoin privacy tools. Edward Snowden, another figure celebrated within the Bitcoin community, remains in exile. (Snowden’s revelations about mass surveillance have made him a key voice at Bitcoin conferences, aligning his values with the ethos of financial and personal privacy that Bitcoin embodies.)

While Ulbricht’s freedom is a win, the incomplete picture of justice for figures like the Samourai Wallet developers and Snowden reminds us of the broader challenges in protecting digital rights.

Ulbricht’s pardon is a significant moment, not just for him but for what it represents: A possible shift in how innovators and pioneers are treated when they challenge existing norms. It also signals that the current administration may be open to reevaluating policies around technology and privacy—issues that deeply resonate with Bitcoiners.

The Bitcoin community’s long-standing support for Ulbricht underscores the movement’s commitment to privacy, autonomy, and resistance to overreach. Yet, as celebrations continue, there’s recognition that this is just one step in a larger journey toward protecting those who push the boundaries of innovation.

For Bitcoiners, this moment is both a celebration and a rallying cry—a signal to keep pushing for a future where technology empowers individuals and where justice and innovation can coexist.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

"I see this happening so much faster than anyone can appreciate. Within 10 years, Bitcoin will become the reserve asset of the world." 

• 00:00 Intro
• 07:15 Bitcoin soft forks 
• 11:00 Bitcoin vs. Crypto in US policy 
• 19:20 How much political power does Bitcoin have? 
• 23:50 Bitcoiners are politically homeless 
• 26:20 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 
• 29:00 Bitcoin development and ossification 
• 32:00 Separation of money and state 
• 33:40 Raise your time preference 
• 35:20 SBR as a way out of USD global reserve status 
• 41:00 Will they eventually fight us? 
• 43:00 Incentives as a political movement 
• 46:30 What happens next? 
• 49:15 Bitcoin Vegas & Inscribing Vegas 2025

The Political and Economic Power of Bitcoin

Bitcoin has evolved into a significant political and financial instrument. Its decentralized nature, immutable ledger, and finite supply make it an attractive alternative to traditional fiat currencies, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. Bailey emphasizes that Bitcoin is no longer merely a speculative asset but has become a political force capable of influencing policy and elections.

"Within the next four years, Bitcoin will be the most widely held asset in the world. This isn’t a special one-off moment—it’s the changing of the guard of the world order." 

As Bitcoin gains adoption among individual investors, corporations, and governments, its ability to sway decisions in both the public and private sectors continues to grow. This makes Bitcoin a strategic tool for economic stability and a hedge against systemic risks such as inflation, currency devaluation, and geopolitical instability. Understanding this evolution is crucial for investors looking to align their strategies with Bitcoin’s increasing influence in global finance.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: A Game-Changer for Economies

Bailey highlights the concept of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) as a key driver in Bitcoin’s path to becoming a global reserve asset. If a major economy, such as the United States, were to adopt an SBR, it could trigger a domino effect, with other nations racing to establish their own reserves. This global competition could significantly accelerate Bitcoin’s transition from a speculative asset to a fundamental part of national and international financial strategies.

"If America gets an SBR, China gets an SBR. If America and China have an SBR, within 12 months every country on the planet will have an SBR. The game theory effects of us kicking this off, in my opinion, are like the biggest catalyst possible for hyperbitcoinization." 

An SBR offers governments the ability to hedge against inflation, protect their economies from devaluation, and diversify their reserves. Unlike gold, Bitcoin is easily transferable, highly divisible, and operates transparently on a decentralized network. For investors, national adoption of Bitcoin reserves signals long-term stability and growth potential, reinforcing the case for allocating a portion of portfolios to Bitcoin and related assets.

Related: From Laser Eyes to Upside-Down Pics: The New Bitcoin Campaign to Flip Gold

Orange-Pilling Trump: A Strategic Advocacy Moment

One of the most intriguing aspects of David Bailey’s efforts in advancing Bitcoin’s adoption was his strategic engagement with President Donald Trump. Bailey discussed how Bitcoin advocates pitched Bitcoin to Trump as more than just a digital currency, emphasizing its economic and political advantages. By framing Bitcoin as a tool for strengthening American competitiveness and financial independence, Bailey and his team successfully captured Trump’s interest.

"We are within a couple of years of being the most powerful political faction in the United States. And not just the United States—there are bitcoiners embedded in power structures across the planet." 

Bailey’s team leveraged Bitcoin mining as a key entry point in their discussions, highlighting the economic benefits of Bitcoin mining operations in the United States, such as job creation and energy innovation. This approach aligned Bitcoin with Trump’s "America First" policies, presenting it as a way to bolster the nation’s energy independence and economic strength. These discussions laid the groundwork for a broader understanding of Bitcoin’s strategic value at the highest levels of government.

Governance and Innovation in Bitcoin

While Bitcoin’s decentralized nature is its greatest strength, it also presents challenges in governance and technological adaptability. Bailey underscores the importance of continuous innovation, particularly through mechanisms like soft forks, to ensure that Bitcoin remains scalable, secure, and competitive. Without these updates, the risk of ossification—where the network becomes resistant to necessary changes—could hinder Bitcoin’s evolution.

"Bitcoin gives governments a really elegant way out of the money-printing trap. They can print money, buy Bitcoin, and as the price of Bitcoin goes up, they’re still solvent. Later, they can peg their currency to Bitcoin."

The Bitcoin community must navigate these governance complexities with a focus on collaboration and forward-looking solutions. 

Hyperbitcoinization and the $1 Million Price Target

Bailey predicts that Bitcoin could reach a value of $1 million per coin within the next four years, driven by its growing adoption and the systemic challenges faced by traditional financial systems. This projection signifies more than just a price milestone—it represents a fundamental shift in the global economic order. Hyperbitcoinization, as Bailey describes it, involves Bitcoin becoming the default reserve currency, complementing or even replacing traditional fiat currencies.

"When we get to a million bucks, which I think can happen over the next four years—in my personal opinion, I think it's possible—the Federal Reserve is, like, going to be completely impotent."

This transition would have profound implications. Bitcoin’s decentralized nature would democratize access to financial systems, reduce reliance on central authorities, and promote greater economic inclusion. For investors, the journey toward hyperbitcoinization offers unparalleled opportunities as Bitcoin’s dual role as a store of value and medium of exchange becomes increasingly evident.

Related: Eric Trump Confident Bitcoin Price Will Hit $1 Million

Interview Key Takeaways

• Political Leverage: Bitcoin’s influence on policymaking and elections underscores its role as a hedge against political and economic risks.
• National Adoption Trends: The adoption of SBRs by major economies could catalyze global Bitcoin adoption, creating a favorable environment for long-term investment.
• Technological Resilience: Continuous innovation, including scalability solutions like the Lightning Network, is essential for sustaining Bitcoin’s growth and usability.
• Portfolio Diversification: Bitcoin’s uncorrelated performance relative to traditional assets makes it an attractive addition to diversified investment strategies.
• Economic Stability: In an era of rising inflation and monetary instability, Bitcoin provides a transparent, secure, and decentralized alternative to fiat currencies.

The Future of Bitcoin in the Global Economy

David Bailey’s insights provide a compelling vision of Bitcoin’s transformative potential, offering investors a clear opportunity to align their strategies with a rapidly evolving financial landscape. By understanding and leveraging Bitcoin’s role in fostering economic resilience and innovation, investors can position themselves to benefit from its adoption as a global reserve asset and a tool for long-term portfolio growth. As the world confronts challenges such as inflation, currency instability, and geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin emerges as a beacon of financial stability and innovation. For investors, the implications of Bitcoin’s growth extend far beyond speculative returns—it represents a strategic opportunity to participate in the evolution of the global financial system.

"It’s like, well, once that happens, then it’s not $1 million or $10 million. It’s like, it is the reserve asset of the world." 

In the coming decade, Bitcoin’s role as a stabilizing force and driver of innovation will become increasingly evident. Its seamless integration into national and corporate strategies, combined with its adaptability, positions Bitcoin as a cornerstone of future financial systems. Bailey’s vision challenges investors to consider the profound implications of a decentralized monetary system that prioritizes transparency, inclusion, and resilience.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

I’m not here to say “I told you so.”

In my Take from October 4, I did write that Donald Trump does not give a damn about Bitcoin, and in my Take from November 5 I wrote he just wants in on the crypto scam. But I didn’t mention Ross Ulbricht in either of these, largely because even I expected Trump to at least follow through on his promise to free Ross. It’s an easy promise to keep, without any real downside for Trump; after more than ten years in prison Ulbricht deserves to be free.

I didn’t really expect Trump to free Ross on day one of his presidency, however. Inauguration day is quite a busy day for a new president, I’m sure.

Having said that, it is what Trump himself said he would do. Of course Trump also said that he would have resolved the war in Ukraine by now — apparently they’re still fighting.

Trump is a bullshitter. He will just say whatever he wants or whatever people want to hear, with no regard for the truth. He probably has the most recorded lies out of any politician on earth: Fact checkers from The Washington Post have for example counted over 30,000 false or misleading claims during his first term as president alone.

Still, it is also true that Trump had a busy day yesterday. He signed 26 executive orders (a record amount for a first day president), and pardoned over 1500 of his supporters; those who stormed the US Capitol Building on January 6th four years ago. Yes, that means the QAnon Shaman walks free before Ross Ulbricht (H/T Trey Walsh)… but let’s just hope that Elon Musk is proven right in the next few days, and Ross will be freed too.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Crosby’s findings project October 19, 2025, as a pivotal date, with Bitcoin reaching a median price of $200,000 and the potential for peaks extending to $230,000 when accounting for statistical outliers.

Access the Comprehensive Analysis

For an in-depth understanding of the mathematical methodologies and the complete analysis, refer to the full video presentation available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro's platform.

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator: An Analytical Benchmark

Central to Crosby’s predictive framework is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, renowned for its precision in identifying Bitcoin’s cyclical price peaks within narrow temporal margins during past bull markets. The indicator functions by employing two critical moving averages:

• 111-Day Moving Average (111DMA): Reflecting shorter-term price dynamics.
• 350-Day Moving Average (350DMA) multiplied by two: Offering a broader historical perspective.

The nomenclature "Pi" arises from the ratio of these averages, approximating 3.142. Historically, the intersection of these moving averages has corresponded with Bitcoin’s market cycle peaks:

• 2017: The indicator predicted the peak with a one-day margin of error.
• 2021: Accurately identified the exact peak date.

Related: New Pi Cycle Top Prediction Chart Identifies Bitcoin Price Market Peaks with Precision

Methodological Precision: From Data to Predictions

Crosby extends his analysis through Monte Carlo simulations, a robust statistical technique that models numerous potential trajectories for Bitcoin’s price evolution. Key facets of this approach include:

• Quantifying median daily returns and associated volatility over the preceding 791 days.
• Running more than 1,000 simulations to map a spectrum of plausible price paths.
• Deriving a median price peak of $200,000, with an average of $230,000 when incorporating extreme data points.

These simulations align with historical patterns, suggesting that the next Bitcoin bull cycle peak will likely occur on October 19, 2025.

Related: We're Repeating The 2017 Bitcoin Bull Cycle

Examining Diminishing Returns

To estimate the price range at the projected peak, Crosby evaluates the historical phenomenon of diminishing returns, where each successive cycle exhibits proportionally smaller price increases relative to its moving averages:

• 2013: Bitcoin’s price exceeded its moving averages by 440%.
• 2017: This figure decreased to 299%.
• 2021: The peak was 32% above the moving averages.

Extrapolating this trend and incorporating Monte Carlo simulations yields the following projections:

• Median Price Peak: $200,000.
• Average Price Peak: $230,000, accounting for statistical variability.

Implications for Investors

Crosby underscores the inherent uncertainties in any predictive model, emphasizing the importance of adapting to evolving market dynamics. Factors such as institutional adoption, macroeconomic trends, and unforeseen events could significantly influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. Nonetheless, this analysis provides a rigorous, data-driven framework to inform investment strategies during the current bull cycle.

Related: What Bitcoin Price History Predicts for February 2025

Key Insights

• Projected Peak Date: October 19, 2025.
• Forecasted Price Range: A median of $200,000, with potential peaks averaging $230,000.
• Analytical Tools: Pi Cycle Top Indicator and Monte Carlo Simulations, powered by Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.

For ongoing access to live data, advanced analytics, and exclusive content, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Disclaimer

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough independent research before making investment decisions.

There is no shortage of opinions when it comes to the stunning launch of President Donald Trump’s Solana memecoin. The news and staggering performance of $TRUMP in the days leading up to his Inauguration have all but confirmed the dawn of a new era for our industry, emphatically declaring that the rules are now very different. In the midst of all the drama, confusion and hot takes, I’m left wondering: did Bitcoiners fumble the bag?

Last year, at block height 840,000, a significant change went into effect on the Bitcoin network –– and I’m not talking about the halving. The Runes metaprotocol launched, making it possible to etch and trade fungible tokens on Bitcoin. This event was met with a record influx of volume, and briefly sent the mempool to thousands of sats/vb. While the mania was short lived, the existence of Runes and initial signal of product-market fit demonstrated there was appetite for Bitcoin to attract significant capital for the tokens and memecoins use case, currently being dominated by Solana, Base and Ethereum. Bitcoin miners could have also benefited (beyond the brief spike) from the increased transaction fees, and the urgency of lowering network congestion may have hastened even more rapid progress towards realizing new solutions for faster, cheaper Bitcoin transactions. In short, more people would be using and learning about Bitcoin.

Instead, our community was bitterly divided on the topic. Some expressed concerns, labeling supporters of Runes and tokens on Bitcoin as “shitcoiners.” These critiques often stem from a deeply held desire to protect Bitcoin’s integrity – a valid and important consideration. However, what if, instead of dismissing these emerging trends outright, we explored ways to channel this enthusiasm into a productive, Bitcoin-aligned framework? Honest exploration of pragmatic solutions to meet the demand responsibly could uncover a path forward to satiate the market’s demand for tokens on Bitcoin. Perhaps we could have spent the past several months rallying around the development of a sleeker UX, improved functionality and creative approaches to harm mitigation, enforced on-chain. Instead, we’ve left these would-be users to market competitors.

Had we properly anticipated and prepared for the reality that Bitcoin could attract the economic activity taking place on other chains, then we would have been better positioned to encourage yesterday’s $8.5B of $TRUMP transaction volume and nearly 1M new users to do business on Bitcoin rather than on Solana. Many will say “memecoins are not a business and that type of degeneracy has no place on bitcoin” –– but that assertion does not change the fact that by ignoring this economic phenomena, we are ceding ground and effectively forfeiting the opportunity to onboard users to Bitcoin by the millions.

Our PTSD of rug pulls, ICOs and pump and dumps may be limiting our imagination. The truth is, no one knows where all of this bizarre economic activity is headed or how (if?) it will end. Many Bitcoiners believed DOGE would have been long dead by now, yet it currently boasts a $54B market cap and is entering its 10th year in existence. It’s possible that what we call “memecoins” are becoming a fixture in the new, emergent economy, whether you like them or not.

The memecoin ecosystem undeniably has its pitfalls– scams, rug pulls and degenerate gambling to name a few. But I believe a reasonable case could be made to suggest a deeper explanation for the market’s appetite to place unfettered bets on what participants find funny, provocative, witty, timely, useful or popular. At the end of the day, much of our modern economy has been reduced to various forms of gambling with varying degrees of sophistication and abstraction. While the ultimate vision of hyperbitcoinization is meant to correct this, it seems realistic to expect a transition period and even some remnants of the fiat system in the most optimistic scenario. The fact remains that as of today, you can buy $FARTCOIN or you can buy $TESLA call options. Either way you are placing a bet based on a number of (albeit very different) factors which have convinced you that your position is or will be shared by others who will follow suit, causing your bet/investment to increase in value.

I don’t claim to know the roadmap for $TRUMP, and I acknowledge that there is a lot that could go wrong. But I find it interesting that the 80% “pre-mined” supply is locked for up to three years, which seems to signal a clear intention NOT to “pump and dump”. That seems to suggest a minimum commitment of 3 years to build value in some way, shape or form.

Perhaps a new reality is emerging where a high profile individual’s personal memecoin is a reflection of their respective performance or popularity in the eyes of the masses, similar to the mechanics of a stock fluctuating based on relevant news or the release of a company’s quarterly earnings. If this thesis plays out, the highest quality memecoins will be stewarded by people and teams who have aligned incentives with their holders,similar to how publicly-traded companies are interested in doing what’s right by their shareholders.

Bitcoin has always thrived when its community embraces challenges with creativity and conviction. Instead of dismissing memecoins as a passing fad, I’m interested in how Bitcoin can become the foundation for a better token ecosystem – one rooted in security, transparency and user empowerment under a Bitcoin standard. Rather than miss the forest for the trees or throw the baby out with the bath water, it seems prudent to consider a more enterprising approach to address the clear market demand for memecoins. Are there productive ways for Bitcoin to filter out the noise while attracting the highest quality memes to the Runes ecosystem, or is this simply high time preference thinking?

It’s not just the combined $100B market cap of DOGE and TRUMP that Bitcoin is missing out on. We are also missing out on the mindshare of the millions who engage with these projects, the talent of developers who build on these chains and the narrative that gets away from us when competing chains capture significant market share that Bitcoin seems unable or unwilling to even acknowledge. By embracing innovation and thoughtfully addressing these emerging trends, Bitcoin can maintain its position not just as the hardest money, but as the bedrock for a dynamic economy, without compromising its core principles.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Trump’s campaign was filled with bold commitments to the Bitcoin and crypto industry: national bitcoin reserves, freeing Ross Ulbricht, making the United States the crypto capital of the world, and more. Today marks the beginning of his presidency, and these promises are expected to roll out in the days ahead.

Bitcoin Magazine is thrilled to celebrate this monumental moment in Bitcoin history by bringing you live coverage of the inauguration from PubKey NYC starting at 10:00 a.m. EST.

LIVE: DONALD TRUMP INAUGURATION | AMERICA'S FIRST #BITCOIN PRESIDENT https://t.co/KuwGYgUukP

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 20, 2025

The livestream will feature a recap of Trump’s campaign trail, highlighting key moments when he voiced his support for Bitcoin. We’ll be joined by well-known leaders in the Bitcoin space, who will share their predictions and debate the potential impact of the Trump administration on Bitcoin’s future.

This celebratory event brings together Bitcoin and crypto community members to discuss, debate, and reflect on what Trump’s presidency could mean for Bitcoin adoption and regulation.

Don’t miss the action—Catch the Bitcoin Magazine livestream coverage on X, YouTube and Rumble starting today, January 20, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. EST.

“Unbank's support is a testament to the growing recognition of open-source payment solutions in the Bitcoin ecosystem,” said BTCPay Server core contributor R0ckstar Dev. “This grant will help our efforts to enhance BTCPay Server's capabilities and reach.”

Unbank, which has become a leading bitcoin ATM network with over 830 ATMs and over 30,000 partner locations, is also utilizing BTCPay Server to process bitcoin sell transactions within their app.

“We love using BTCPay Server in our operations,” Emilio Pagan-Yourno, CEO and COO of Unbank. “When customers buy Bitcoin at our ATMs, we rely on their API to batch and broadcast transactions every 15 minutes. Supporting BTCPay Server is not just essential for our business — it's a privilege to contribute to the FOSS ecosystem that powers financial freedom.”

Last summer, BTCPay filmed and released a documentary covering the use of bitcoin as a means of exchange at the world’s largest Bitcoin conference in Nashville. BTCPay, in collaboration with Jack Maller’s company Strike, enabled every vendor at the conference to accept bitcoin as payment.

I’ve already written articles and talked at various lengths about Trump leaning into the crypto space to earn votes in this past election that in many ways was quite successful. At Bitcoin Nashville this past summer, in an effort to garner support for his presidential candidacy, Trump said some notable things including that America will become “the crypto capital of the planet and bitcoin superpower of the world,” that he would fire Gary Gensler, and that he wants all remaining bitcoin to be made in America (concerning from a decentralized point of view, and highly implausible in reality). He also famously said that he would commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht on Day one, which if he does I will be the first to give credit where credit is due. (For more on this I recommend watching the recent Reason documentary on why Ross should be freed).

Crypto is Donald Trump’s next frontier and combines several things he absolutely loves when it comes to business deals - Quick easy money, self-promotion, America first messaging, and little bureaucratic friction standing in his way. So, what is $TRUMP coin? 

It’s built on the Solana blockchain with a total supply of 1 billion tokens. Initially, 200 million tokens are available for circulation, while the remaining 800 million are held by CIC Digital, a Trump Organization affiliate, subject to a three-year lock-up period (which means the Trump family holds 80% of supply…). Following its launch, the $TRUMP coin's market cap surged, reaching approximately $6 billion. The coin's price peaked at $33.7. The $TRUMP coin was marketed as a means for supporters to express their alignment with Trump's ideals, rather than as an investment opportunity, which is hogwash for the pump and dump self-enrichment scheme that he is in my opinion immoral and unethical for creating, and investors (oops, guess we should say “fans”) are stupid for taking part in.

With inauguration on Monday, we’re entering uncharted territory where it’s likely Trump will issue Executive Orders relating to bitcoin and crypto, and now emboldened by the presidency, lack of legal worries, and supporters that I truly believe would be fine with whatever he does. As he famously quoted, "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK?”

Some of these actions could be positive for the Bitcoin industry and advocates in the United States. But many of his actions could also equally benefit the broader crypto space that is rife with pump-and-dump scam coins and useless get rich quick schemes for wealthy insiders and people who have lobbied him throughout this last cycle. The pump and dump crypto landscape, his goofy coins and NFT’s, make sense to Trump. In fact, I’m betting he truly believes this is crypto’s purpose, while knowing little about Bitcoin. Trump has repeatedly said he has “fun with crypto” and ended his keynote address at the Bitcoin Conference this past summer by saying “have a good time with your bitcoin and your crypto and everything else that you're playing with.” Trump’s experience in and views of crypto and bitcoin are around fun and making easy money. But with Bitcoin, many of us in the space are fighting for much more, which includes Bitcoin’s many use-cases as censorship resistance digital currency, digital gold, a medium of exchange to use in self-custody and via privacy preserving tools, a powerful tool for human rights, and much more. This isn’t a gamble for us…it’s the future of money that challenges the dollar and central bank rule.

If Trump really began to grasp this, based on his track record and previous statements on Bitcoin, he’d be quite against this use of Bitcoin. Or perhaps he knows what Bitcoin is at some level, and would rather promote the “fun” meme coins, and maybe Bitcoin as digital gold, but nothing more. He did after all say in 2021, quite clearly, "Bitcoin, it just seems like a scam. I don't like it because it's another currency competing against the dollar." He added that he wanted the dollar to be "the currency of the world.” (For more on this concept I’d highly recommend following Mark Goodwin and his work on the bitcoin dollar.)

Trump wants you to keep playing with crypto, funneling money to his organizations, but it’s unlikely he’d be a fan of anyone using bitcoin as a competitor to the dollar, circumventing traditional finance or using privacy tools (particularly if you are an adversary or from what he deems a left/woke cause, which perhaps one day he’d classify our nonprofit The Progressive Bitcoiner as). I’ll keep promoting Bitcoin as resistance money, and hope you’ll join me, rather than endlessly gambling on crypto “and everything else you’re playing with.” 

This is a guest post by Trey Walsh. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

With his return to the presidency, Donald Trump has positioned himself as a key figure in the Bitcoin conversation. His keynote at Bitcoin 2024 laid out ambitious plans for integrating Bitcoin into the U.S. economy, making him the first U.S. president to openly champion the cryptocurrency in such a way. As his second term begins, the Bitcoin community is eager to see how his promises will evolve into concrete policies, with hopes of a friendlier regulatory environment and a more secure, innovative financial system.

The Promises

Trump’s speech at Bitcoin 2024 highlighted a series of initiatives aimed at embracing Bitcoin and blockchain technology:

• Ending the “anti-crypto stance” from previous administrations, with a commitment to revising the approach to regulation.
• Establishing a Presidential Crypto Advisory Council to shape the national strategy for Bitcoin and blockchain innovation.
• Rejecting the idea of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
• Securing and holding government-owned bitcoin, with plans to create a strategic stockpile.
• Freeing Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road online marketplace, who has been imprisoned since 2013.
• The removal of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.

While Trump’s commitment to Bitcoin is undeniably encouraging for the community, translating ambitious promises into effective policy presents a challenging path forward. His call for removing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler resonated with Bitcoin advocates, many of whom blamed Gensler for restrictive policies. Although it’s unclear if Trump’s influence played a role, Gensler’s announcement of his November departure signals a changing regulatory tide. Trump’s proposal to establish a Crypto Advisory Council holds potential, but its success will depend on bipartisan cooperation and a clear, actionable mandate. Without these elements, it risks becoming a hollow political gesture. Additionally, his opposition to a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) aligns well with privacy advocates and decentralization proponents, and there does seem to be support from within the Republican party for this policy. In regards to Ross Ulbricht, President Trump has many avenues to explore, from a commuted sentence to a presidential pardon. Whether it happens “day one” or within the early days of Trump’s second term, Ulbricht’s freedom is on the horizon.

As with any sweeping political vision, enthusiasm must be tempered with pragmatism. Turning promises into actionable policies takes time, especially within the labyrinth of established financial systems. Regulatory reforms move slowly, often hindered by entrenched interests and complex legislative processes. Nonetheless, Trump’s vocal advocacy of Bitcoin marks a cultural shift in American politics. Even if not every initiative reaches full fruition, his presidency could significantly alter public perceptions and policy discourse surrounding Bitcoin, embedding the cryptocurrency deeper into the national conversation.

Should political inertia or opposition delay progress, the Bitcoin community has tools to remain proactive and engaged. Active participation in shaping policy will be key—advocating for legislative clarity and innovation-friendly frameworks can help ensure Bitcoin’s potential is realized. Keeping a vigilant eye on regulatory shifts, including how Trump’s administration addresses existing SEC cases and cryptocurrency classifications, will also be crucial. Flexibility and readiness to accept incremental progress could yield meaningful wins, especially in resisting CBDCs and strengthening the government’s bitcoin holdings strategy.

Ultimately, Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance represents a historic pivot toward integrating Bitcoin into U.S. governance. While challenges and delays are inevitable, the presence of a Bitcoin advocate in the White House offers unprecedented opportunities. The next few years will test whether America can truly become a beacon for Bitcoin innovation or whether political realities will slow the revolution. Either way, Bitcoin now has a powerful ally at the highest level of government—a hopeful signal for its future trajectory in the United States and beyond.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Wyoming: A Tradition of Innovation

“Wyoming has always been a pioneer—from women’s suffrage, to the first national park; from the invention of the LLC, to the frontier of digital assets,” Wasserburger remarked when introducing the bill. “HB0201 ensures that Wyoming remains the leading state for legislative innovation in Bitcoin, while providing our citizens with the long-term benefits of sound money and financial sovereignty.”

HB0201 would allow the allocation of a portion of Wyoming’s state funds into Bitcoin as part of a diversified investment strategy. By doing so, the state aims to capitalize on Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation potential while promoting its principles of decentralization and monetary resilience. The initiative aligns with Wyoming’s established reputation as the most Bitcoin-friendly jurisdiction in the United States, a legacy cultivated by laws such as the Wyoming Special Purpose Depository Institution (SPDI) framework, and includes more than two dozen other laws and regulations passed or promulgated since 2018.

National Collaboration: Supporting Senator Lummis and President-elect Trump

Representative Wasserburger’s ambitions extend beyond Wyoming. The freshman legislator emphasized the importance of supporting efforts by Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis and President-elect Donald Trump to establish a United States Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

“As a proud supporter of Senator Lummis and President-elect Trump’s efforts, I believe Wyoming can play a vital role in this national initiative,” Wasserburger stated. “Building a strategic Bitcoin reserve isn’t just about securing financial strength—it’s about ensuring that both Wyoming and America remain leaders on the global stage.”

This collaboration underscores the growing recognition of Bitcoin as a geopolitical asset. Advocates argue that holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset could hedge against inflation, protect against economic instability, and strengthen the United States’ position in an increasingly digital global economy.

The Economic Case for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

At the heart of HB0201 lies an economic argument as compelling as it is revolutionary. Bitcoin, often described as “digital gold,” has demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth over the past decade. For Wyoming, a state that has consistently championed financial independence and innovation, the potential upside of Bitcoin aligns with its long-term vision.

“We can’t afford to sit on the sidelines while other states, like Texas, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, New Hampshire and others move forward with their own Bitcoin reserve bills,” said Wasserburger. “Passing HB0201 quickly ensures that Wyoming remains the leader among the states, setting the standard for financial innovation and sovereignty. With many other states likely to follow suit, now is the time to solidify our position as the trailblazer in the digital economy and ensure Wyoming stays ahead of the pack.”

“Wyoming’s economic future depends on embracing innovation while staying true to our principles of individual liberty and financial independence,” said Wasserburger. “Investing in Bitcoin is not just smart policy—it’s Wyoming’s way of saying we’re ready for the future.”

In a time when states are grappling with economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralized nature offer a stark contrast to traditional financial systems. By adopting HB0201, Wyoming positions itself as a leader not just in Bitcoin regulation, but in integrating Bitcoin into the financial apparatus of state governance.

This is a guest post by Colin Crossman. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

I was recently a guest on the Mr. M podcast, where the host, Maurizio (Mr. M), and I discussed many of the realities of investing in bitcoin that often aren’t discussed with enough nuance.

For context, Maurizio invited me onto the show because he wanted to discuss a Take I wrote last week entitled “Don’t Buy The Bitcoin Dip,” in which I shared that we’ve already been in a bitcoin bull market for over two years and that now likely isn’t the best time to make sizable bitcoin purchases. (Please note that, in the article, I didn’t encourage anyone to sell their bitcoin, nor did I suggest that they stop dollar-cost averaging into the asset.)

We discussed the piece and also touched on some other dynamics involved with investing in bitcoin that don’t often get brought up. So, I figured I’d share some bullet points from the conversation here as a teaser for the episode.

When investing in bitcoin, you can:

• Sell some if you need some cash, and it’s better to do this while bitcoin’s price is high
• Not go all in on bitcoin; having a cash buffer can be psychologically beneficial, as bitcoin is a volatile asset
• Consider timing when making larger bitcoin purchases; bitcoin’s price goes through boom and bust cycles, and it’s best to buy during bear markets

I share these points because, oftentimes, louder voices in the Bitcoin space broadcast messages like “Buy the dip” or “Never selling!” (my favorite example of this is the episode of What Bitcoin Did entitled “Buy the Fucking Dip” that was published at the near the tippy top of the 2021 bull market), prompting those new to the space or who might benefit from selling or spending some bitcoin during a bull market not to.

Had I not sold some bitcoin during the latter part of the previous bull run, I wouldn’t have had the cash buffer that made it easier for me to quit my previous job, which was making me miserable, so that I had some financial breathing room while looking for work in the Bitcoin space. And here I am now, writing articles for Bitcoin Magazine for a living in part because I sold some of my bitcoin.

So, please understand that Bitcoin is a tool that can be used in many different ways. Examine your life circumstances, and think for yourself when it comes to how to use your bitcoin. Don’t just listen to the devout HODLers who may make you feel like less of a Bitcoiner for doing what’s best for you.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

What Is the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score?

The MVRV Z-Score is derived by analyzing the ratio between Bitcoin’s realized cap (the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin in circulation) and its market cap (current network valuation). By standardizing this ratio using Bitcoin's price volatility (measured as the standard deviation), the Z-Score highlights periods of overvaluation or undervaluation relative to historical norms.

View Live Chart ????

Peaks in the red zone signal overvaluation, suggesting optimal profit-taking opportunities. Bottoms in the green zone indicate undervaluation, often marking strong accumulation opportunities. Historically, this metric has been remarkably accurate in pinpointing major market cycle extremes.

While powerful, the traditional MVRV Z-Score has its limitations. In past cycles, the Z-Score reached values of 9–10 during market tops. However, in the last cycle, the score only reached around 7. This may be due to the rounded double-peak cycle instead of the sharp blow-off top we usually experience. Regardless, there’s the necessity to factor in the evolving market dynamics, with increasing institutional involvement and changing investor behavior.

The Enhanced MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score standardizes the raw MVRV data using Bitcoin’s entire price history, which includes the extreme volatility of its early years. As Bitcoin matures, these early data points may distort its relevance to current market conditions. To address these challenges, we’ve developed the MVRV Z-Score 2YR Rolling. Instead of using Bitcoin's entire price history, this version calculates volatility based only on the previous two years of data.

View Live Chart ????

This approach better accounts for Bitcoin’s growing market cap and shifting dynamics and ensures the metric adapts to more recent trends, offering greater accuracy for contemporary market analysis. It still excels at identifying market cycle tops and bottoms but adapts to modern conditions. In the last cycle, this version captured a higher peak value than the traditional Z-Score, aligning more closely with 2017's price action. On the downside, it continues to identify strong accumulation zones with high precision.

Raw MVRV Ratio

Another complementary approach involves analyzing the MVRV ratio without standardizing for volatility. By doing so, we can see the previous cycle’s MVRV ratio peaked at 3.96, compared to 4.72 in the cycle before that. These values suggest less deviation, potentially offering a more stable framework for projecting future price targets.

View Live Chart ????

Assuming a realized price of $60,000 (factoring in the current projected increase over the next six months) and an MVRV ratio of 3.96, a potential peak price could be close to $240,000. If diminishing returns reduce the ratio to 3.0, the peak price might still reach $180,000.

Conclusion

While the MVRV Z-Score is still one of the most effective tools for timing market cycle peaks and bottoms, we need to be prepared for this metric potentially not reaching similar highs as prior cycles. By adapting this data to better factor in the changing market dynamics of Bitcoin, we can account for reduced volatility as BTC grows.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:
Improving The Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

According to a press release sent to Bitcoin Magazine, an Office of California Assembly Member, Republican Phillip Chen, has appointed Proof of Workforce, a Santa Monica-based non-profit helping workers, unions, pensions, and municipalities with education-based Bitcoin adoption, to work on a variety of Bitcoin related initiatives and help with drafting an official bill for an upcoming legislative session.

“As to where and how Bitcoin and digital assets get into the trajectory of California, much is undetermined,” said Chen. “What is certain is that this industry is growing in adoption everyday, with Bitcoin serving as a global network and asset, representing 2 trillion dollars in value. Therefore, it’s important we take a meaningful look into its role in our great state of California.”

Proof of Workforce, led by its founder Dom Bei, will be advising Chen’s policy team, working on education and community engagement, and researching how Bitcoin can support and rebuild California’s infrastructure and communities.

“Bitcoin’s Genesis story has deep roots in California,” commented Bei. “A huge part of that Genesis Story is an innovative network, designed to protect the time, energy, and value of everyday, working people. Bitcoin isn’t partisan, it's uniquely Californian.”

This isn’t Proof of Workforce’s first time helping onboard governments in California to Bitcoin. Last summer, Proof of Workforce partnered with the City of Santa Monica to open an official Bitcoin office. Since opening, the office has seen “an overwhelming amount of interest”, according to the city’s Mayor Lana Negrete. Santa Monica’s City Manager has also stated that other cities have reached out to learn more about their Bitcoin endeavors.

JUST IN: ???????? Santa Monica City Manager says "several other cities have reached out to learn more" about their official #Bitcoin Office ????

"The Bitcoin Office has seen significant interest from the public" ????pic.twitter.com/ortfFTCx1S

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) October 9, 2024

Mass adoption starts with initiatives like this. Bitcoin adoption within California’s government is beginning and with the United States embracing Bitcoin under President Trump, it is very likely that the adoption of this asset within the state government will continue over the coming years.

Over the years I’ve watched Dom Bei and Proof of Workforce onboard Careers in Government, firefighter unions in America, El Salvador, and Africa, workers, and more to Bitcoin. They’re doing it right by helping these organizations buy and hold their own bitcoin keys, making sure they’re all properly educated on not just bitcoin the asset but Bitcoin the network as well. One by one, Proof of Workforce is making real change that impacts people’s daily lives.

If you are not following Bei and Proof of Workforce on X, you should be. After talking with Dom personally, they are working on a lot of exciting initiatives that you’ll want to hear about — stay tuned.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Understanding Bitcoin’s Seasonality

The first chart, "Bitcoin Seasonality," highlights average monthly returns from 2010 to the latest monthly close. The data underscores Bitcoin’s best-performing months and its cyclical tendencies. February has historically shown an average return of 13.62%, ranking it as one of the stronger months for Bitcoin performance.

Notably, November stands out with the highest average return at 43.74%, followed by October at 19.46%. Conversely, September has historically been the weakest month with an average return of -1.83%. February’s solid average places it in the upper tier of Bitcoin’s seasonality, offering investors hope for positive returns in early 2025.

Historical Performance of February in Post-Halving Years

A deeper dive into Bitcoin’s historical February returns reveals fascinating insights for years that follow a halving event. Bitcoin’s halving mechanism—which occurs roughly every four years—reduces block rewards by half, creating a supply shock that has historically driven price increases. February’s performance in these post-halving years has consistently been positive:

• 2013 (Post-2012 Halving): 62.71%
• 2017 (Post-2016 Halving): 22.71%
• 2021 (Post-2020 Halving): 36.80%

The average return across these three years is an impressive 40.74%. Each of these Februarys reflects the bullish momentum that often follows halving events, driven by reduced Bitcoin supply issuance and increased market demand.

Related: We're Repeating The 2017 Bitcoin Bull Cycle

January 2025’s Performance Sets the Stage

While February 2025 is yet to unfold, the year began with a modest 7.28% return to date in January, as shown in the "Monthly Returns Heatmap." January’s positive performance hints at a continuation of bullish sentiment in the early months of 2025, aligning with historical post-halving patterns. If February 2025 follows the trajectory of past post-halving years, it could see returns in the range of 22% to 63%, with an average expectation around 40%.

What Drives February’s Strong Post-Halving Performance?

Several factors contribute to February’s historical strength in post-halving years:

1. Supply Shock: The halving reduces new Bitcoin supply entering circulation, increasing scarcity and driving price appreciation.
2. Market Momentum: Investors often respond to the halving event with increased enthusiasm, pushing prices higher in the months following the event.
3. Institutional Interest: In recent cycles, institutional adoption has accelerated post-halving, adding significant capital inflows to the market.

Key Takeaways for February 2025

Investors should approach February 2025 with cautious optimism. Historical and seasonal data suggest the month has strong potential for positive returns, particularly in the context of Bitcoin’s post-halving cycles. With an average return of 40.74% in past post-halving Februarys, investors might expect similar performance this year, barring any significant macroeconomic or regulatory headwinds.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s history provides a valuable lens through which to view its future performance. February 2025 is shaping up to be another positive month, driven by the same post-halving dynamics that have historically fueled impressive gains. Combining historical data performance with a positive regulatory environment, the incoming pro-Bitcoin administration, and the news that The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has issued a new guideline (ASU 2023-08) fundamentally changing how Bitcoin is accounted for (Why Hundreds of Companies Will Buy Bitcoin in 2025), 2025 is shaping up to be a transformative year for Bitcoin. As always, investors should combine these insights with broader market analysis and remain prepared for Bitcoin’s inherent volatility.

Related: Why Hundreds of Companies Will Buy Bitcoin in 2025

By leveraging the lessons of history and the patterns of seasonality, Bitcoin investors can make informed decisions as the market navigates this pivotal year.

To explore live data and stay informed on the latest analysis, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Earlier today, Coinbase announced the launch of “Bitcoin-Backed Loans” using Base, its native blockchain. But there’s one problem. (Actually, two.)

These loans are not backed by Bitcoin, nor are they even on the Bitcoin blockchain.

It’s disappointing that, in 2025, companies are still willingly omitting key details to mislead Bitcoin holders into giving up custody of their coins.

Here’s the truth: these loans are collateralized by cbBTC, Coinbase’s Bitcoin-wrapped product designed to compete with wBTC and tBTC. This is not Bitcoin. In fact, cbBTC is arguably the most centralized of these “wrapped” BTC tokens. To understand the trust assumptions associated with wrapped BTC, I recommend this excellent post by the Bitcoin Layers team: Analyzing tBTC Against wBTC and cbBTC.

Here’s the TL;DR:

“The BTC backing the cbBTC token is held in reserve wallets managed by Coinbase, a US-based centralized custodial provider. Coinbase holds funds backing cbBTC in cold storage wallets across a number of geographically distributed locations and additionally has insurance on funds they custody.”

Furthermore, instead of issuing these loans on a blockchain even remotely related to Bitcoin (such as Bitcoin sidechains or Bitcoin L2s), Coinbase is issuing them through Morpho Labs, a DeFi platform best described as an AAVE competitor. While Morpho is a well-established platform—and I don’t doubt its security—it has no connection to Bitcoin.

I, for one, look forward to seeing actual Bitcoin-backed loans issued on the Bitcoin network itself. Many L2 teams are working hard to make this a reality, striving to minimize trust assumptions—or even eliminate the need for bridging altogether (bullish!).

Why do we need native Bitcoin-backed loans in the first place? Consider this: many Bitcoiners today face stringent tax regulations that impose hefty liabilities on long-term holders who sell their Bitcoin to fund significant purchases like a house or a car. Taking out a loan backed by BTC allows individuals to avoid triggering these tax events.

Moreover, most Bitcoiners are confident that Bitcoin's price will be significantly higher in the future than it is today. So why would anyone sell an asset with such promising long-term potential? Bitcoin-backed loans enable holders to retain exposure to Bitcoin's upside while accessing the liquidity needed to meet life’s financial demands.

In today’s market, the options for Bitcoin-backed lending are limited. You can either rely on centralized companies (like the reputable team at Unchained) or turn to "DeFi" protocols, which are often centralized themselves and, in some cases, riskier than centralized alternatives like Unchained. However, there is currently no truly Bitcoin-native solution—no option for Bitcoiners to maintain custody of their coins while accessing loans.

Some companies, like Lava.xyz, are beginning to address this gap. However, their market share remains a small fraction of the volumes handled by existing DeFi platforms. (Keep an eye on Lava—they’re poised to make waves in 2025!)

One quote from the original announcement stood out to me:

“The integration of Bitcoin-backed loans on Coinbase is 'TradFi in the front, DeFi in the back,'” said Max Branzburg, Coinbase's vice president of product, in a statement to The Block.

Let’s call it what it really is: centralized in the front, and centralized in the back.

It’s time to leave these misleading offerings behind and bring true Bitcoin Finance (BTCfi) to users—not just marketing buzzwords and half-truths.

Instead of saying: Bitcoin backed on-chain loans let’s say: multisig-backed derivatives loans on a centralized chain.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Articles I write may discuss topics or companies that are part of my firm’s investment portfolio (UTXO Management). The views expressed are solely my own and do not represent the opinions of my employer or its affiliates. I’m receiving no financial compensation for these takes. Readers should not consider this content as financial advice or an endorsement of any particular company or investment. Always do your own research before making financial decisions.

Some miners at OCEAN have started making use of the Coin Age Priority algorithm during block template construction using DATUM. Originally, Bitcoin Core originally selected transactions to include in blocks based on what they had seen first in their mempool. This logic was eventually replaced by prioritizing older coins, i.e. that had been sitting around unspent longer, over other coins. This was eventually only applied to a small portion of the blockspace, and then eventually done away with entirely around the time of Segwit. It’s still maintained in Bitcoin Knots.

I can only speculate as to the motives of the miners doing this, but given OCEAN’s rhetoric I can guess that it has something to do with prioritizing “financial” transactions over others. Even if not, even if it is purely to help small value UTXO owners, it is still every bit as irrational.

You can partition blockspace as a miner however you want, and prioritize ordering of transactions however you wish within those partitions, but it does not change the fact that blockspace is a fungible good being valued on an open market. If criteria other than the feerate are used to decide which transactions to include, you will leave money on the table. The only situation where that would not be true is one where those criteria were 1:1 identical to deciding based on feerate, which would be a meaningless criteria.

Creating a subsection of blockspace selected for by other criteria ultimately accomplishes two things: 1) leaving money on the table as a miner, as definitionally any meaningful non-feerate criteria results in collecting less fees, and 2) create a bucket of blockspace submitted to competitive “fee” pressures according to whatever different criteria is used, without any of that pressure creating direct revenue increases for miners using this new criteria.

The new subsection of blockspace doesn’t ultimately reduce fee pressure, it simply leaves them making less money and users taking advantage of this new transaction selection criteria subjected to different competitive pressures miners do not directly benefit from.

You can’t hide from the reality that blockspace is a fungible good priced on the open market. You can accept that, or you can lose money. The only alternative is to futilely try to censor classes of transactions you don’t like, and if you happen to succeed, you destroy a core property of Bitcoin in the process.

Mining staying decentralized, widely distributed with many small operators, is critical for Bitcoin’s censorship resistance. It’s a shame to see signs like this of such smaller miners being economically irrational, given that it has huge implications for their success long term.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Earlier this morning, the U.S. government announced via a court document that stolen bitcoin from the Bitfinex hack in 2016 should be returned to the exchange in-kind. This bitcoin, as seen publicly on the blockchain via Arkham Intelligence, totals 94,643 BTC currently worth $9.4 billion at the time of writing.

Just five days before pro-Bitcoin Donald Trump is sworn into office for a second term, the U.S. government seems to be on the verge of sending a large chunk of U.S. held bitcoin back to Bitfinex. Last summer, at The Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville, Donald Trump pledged to create a national strategic bitcoin stockpile using the bitcoin already held by the government obtained from hacks, seizures, etc. According to Arkham Intelligence data, the U.S. currently holds 198,109 bitcoin worth over $20.1 billion. If these coins are to be sent back to Bitfinex — that would cut Trump’s promised strategic reserve by 47.77% down to 103,466 BTC.

BREAKING: ???????? DONALD TRUMP PLEDGES TO NEVER SELL #BITCOIN AND HOLD IT AS A STRATEGIC RESERVE ASSET IF ELECTED PRESIDENT pic.twitter.com/bbPRxlZfGZ

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 27, 2024

It makes me bullish that if the government is going to be acquiring mass amounts of bitcoin in the near future and over the long term, then I would want them to start from as close to 0 as possible, because that would require them to market buy more and push the price higher. The bitcoin should be returned in-kind, the court document stated, meaning those coins will not need to be sold for dollars, relieving any downward pressure on bitcoin’s price from that would be sale. Plus bitcoin getting returned to its rightful owner sounds like the right thing to do, and I’m sure Bitfinex will be thrilled to get their coins back.

However, if the U.S. government is going to be mass buying bitcoin for a strategic reserve, then Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis’ proposed legislation for that would need to be signed into law. As it stands from just Trump’s promise, he would just initially keep the seized bitcoin held on the government balance sheet as the strategic reserve, with the potential of acquiring more BTC by other methods, but made no hard promise on that. Senator Lummis’ proposed bill would see the United States buy 200,000 bitcoin per year, for 5 years, until it has accumulated a total of 1,000,000 bitcoin.

JUST IN: US Senator Cynthia Lummis outlines Strategic #Bitcoin Reserve plan: "purchase 200k BTC per year for five years. 1m BTC total." ???????? pic.twitter.com/57ofJhc8X0

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) November 21, 2024

However this all plays out, the strategic bitcoin reserve will be bullish for the country and for Bitcoin in general. Obviously, Senator Lummis’ bill would be the far more bullish of the potential outcomes, because it would market buy back all the bitcoin it plans to give back to Bitfinex, and then 905,357 BTC more. That amount of sheer buying demand would most likely send the price of bitcoin skyrocketing, especially as other governments around the world start buying as well to keep up with our government’s purchases.

Even if Lummis’ bill does not come to fruition, and we only get the reserve that Trump promised, I believe that is still enough to make other governments FOMO into creating their own reserve as well.

There is only about 450 new bitcoin getting mined every day, and with institutional bitcoin purchases already outpacing the new supply of BTC mined this year, things could get really crazy, really fast. Buckle up.

JUST IN: Corporate demand for #Bitcoin is already outpacing new bitcoin supply this year ????

Bullish ???? pic.twitter.com/PyKk9Aci93

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 13, 2025

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

If there is a technology that can circumvent the traditional binary system of 0s and 1s for units of information, there is potential to upend cryptography as we know it. But is that danger over exaggerated?

Could quantum computing one day turn Bitcoin into a valueless piece of code? Let’s start by understanding why Bitcoin relies on cryptography.

Bitcoin’s Bits and Hashing

When we say that an image is 1 MB in size, we say that it contains 1,000,000 Bytes. As each Byte contains 8 bits, this means that an image contains 8,388,608 bits. As the binary digit (bit), this is the tiniest unit of information, either 0 or 1, that builds up the entire edifice of our digital age.

In the case of an image, bits in a 1MB file would assign a color to each pixel, making it readable to the human eye. In the case of a cryptographic function like SHA-256 (Secure Hash Algorithm 256-bit), developed by the NSA, it would produce 256 bits (32 Bytes) as the fixed length of a hash from an input of arbitrary size.

The primary purpose of a hash function is to convert any string of letters or numbers into an output of fixed length. This obfuscation blending makes it ideal for compact storage and anonymized signatures. And because the hashing process is a one-way street, hashed data is effectively irreversible.

Therefore, when we say that SHA-256 provides a 256-bit security, we mean to say that there are 2256 possible hashes to consider for reversal. When Bitcoin payments are conducted, each Bitcoin block has its own unique transaction hash generated by SHA-256. Each transaction within the block contributes to this unique hash as they form the Merkle root, plus the timestamp, nonce value and other metadata.

A would-be blockchain attacker would have to recalculate hashes and extract the necessary data not only for that block containing the transactions, but for all subsequent blocks chained to it. Suffice to say, the 2256 possibility load poses a virtually impractical computational endeavor, requiring immense expenditure of energy and time, both of which are exceedingly costly.

But could this no longer be the case with quantum computing?

New Quantum Paradigm for Computing

Moving away from bits as 0s and 1s, quantum computing introduces qubits. Leveraging the observed property of superposition, these units of information can not only be either 0 or 1 but both simultaneously. In other words, we are moving away from deterministic computing to indeterministic computing.

Because qubits can exist in an entangled and superimposed state, until observed, computations become probabilistic. And because there are more states than always 0 or 1, a quantum computer has the ability for parallel computing as it can simultaneously process 2n states.

A classic binary computer would have to run a function for each possible 2n state, which the quantum computer could assess simultaneously. In 1994, mathematician Peter Shor developed an algorithm with this in mind.

Shor’s algorithm combines Quantum Fourier Transform (QFT) and Quantum Phase Estimation (QPE) techniques to speedup pattern-finding and theoretically break all cryptography systems, not just Bitcoin.

However, there is one huge problem. If quantum computing is probabilistic, how reliable is it?

Stabilizing Coherence in Quantum Computing

When it is said that qubits are superimposed, this is akin to visualizing a coin flip. While in the air, one can imagine the coin having both states - heads or tails. But once it lands, the state is resolved into one outcome.

Equally so, when qubits are resolved, their state collapses into the classical state. The problem is that a ground-breaking algorithm like Shor’s needs many qubits to maintain their superposition for a long period of time to interact with each other. Otherwise, the necessary, useful calculations fail to actually complete.

In quantum computing, this refers to quantum decoherence (QD) and quantum error correction (QEC). Moreover, these problems need to be solved across many qubits for complex calculations.

According to the Millisecond Coherence in a Superconducting Qubit paper published in June 2023, the longest coherence time of a qubit is 1.48 ms at average gate fidelity of 99.991%. The latter percentage refers to the overall reliability of a QPU (quantum processing unit).

At present, the most usable and powerful quantum computer appears to be from IBM, dubbed Quantum System Two. A modular system ready for scaling, Quantum System Two should perform 5,000 operations with three Heron QPUs in a single circuit by the end of 2024. By the end of 2033, this should increase to 100 million operations.

The question is, would this be enough to materialize Shar’s algorithm and break Bitcoin?

QC Threat Viability

Due to decoherence problems and fault-tolerance, quantum computers have yet to pose a serious risk to cryptography. It is unclear if it is even possible to achieve a fault-tolerant quantum system at scale when such a high level of environmental purity is needed.

This includes electron-phonon scattering, photon emissions and even electron to electron interactivity. Moreover, the greater the number of qubits, which are necessary for Shor’s algorithm, the greater the decoherence.

Yet, although these may appear to be intractable problems inherent with quantum computing, there has been great progress in QEC methods. Case in point, Riverlane’s Deltaflow 2 method performs real-time QEC on up to 250 qubits. By 2026, this method should result in the first viable quantum application with million real-time quantum operations (MegaQuOp).

To break SHA-256 within one day, 13 million qubits would be needed, according to the AVS Quantum Science article published in January 2022. Although this would threaten Bitcoin wallets, many more qubits, at around 1 billion, would be needed to actually execute a 51% attack on Bitcoin mainnet.

When it comes to implementing the Grover algorithm, designed to leverage QC to search unstructured databases (unique hashes), a research paper published in 2018 suggested that no quantum computer would be able to implement it until 2028.

Image credit: Ledger Journal

Of course, Bitcoin network’s hashrate has greatly increased since then, and QC has to tackle decoherence as a major obstacle. But if QEC roadmaps eventually materialize into reliable quantum systems, what can be done to counteract the QC threat to Bitcoin?

Quantum Computing Resistance

There are multiple proposals to safeguard Bitcoin holders from quantum computers. Because a 51% QC attack is extremely improbable, the focus is mainly on hardening wallets. After all, if people cannot rely on their BTC holdings to be secure, this would cause an exodus from Bitcoin.

In turn, BTC price would plummet and the network’s hashrate would drastically decrease, making it far more vulnerable to QC than previously estimated. One such hardening is implementing Lamport signatures.

With Lamport signatures, a private key would be generated into pairs, 512 bitstrings from a 256-bit output. A public key would be generated with a cryptographic function to each of the 512 bitstrings. Each BTC transaction would need a one-time Lamport signature.

Because Lamport signatures do not rely on elliptic curves over finite fields in Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which is used by Bitcoin and can be exploited by Shar’s algorithm, but on hash functions, this makes them a viable quantum-resistant alternative.

The downside of Lamport signatures is their increased size, upward of 16KB, and one-time use. Of course, just by shifting addresses and keeping BTC in cold storage, thus avoiding private key exposure, can also prevent QC from being effective.

Another approach to confound potential QC attacks would be to implement lattice-based cryptography (LBC). Unlike in ECDSA, LBC avoids finite patterns by relying on discrete points in n-dimensional lattice (grid) space that extends infinitely in all directions. Because of this feature, there has yet been developed a quantum algorithm that could break LBC.

However, to implement a new type of cryptography, Bitcoin would have to undergo a hard fork. In that scenario, there would likely need to be many signals indicating that major breakthroughs in quantum computing, particularly in qubit count and fault tolerance, are imminent.

Bottom Line

It is safe to say that the Bitcoin mainnet itself is not in danger from quantum computing, in either the near or distant future. Yet, if QC were to compromise Bitcoin’s encryption—rendering SHA-256 and ECDSA obsolete—it would deeply impact confidence in the cryptocurrency.

This confidence is crucial, as demonstrated by major companies like Microsoft and PayPal, which have adopted Bitcoin payments, drawn by up to 80% savings compared to card transactions, zero chargebacks, and complete control over funds. With over 300 million holders globally, Bitcoin’s appeal as both a secure asset and a cost-effective payment option remains strong.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s value is sustained by the capital and confidence behind it. Its historical volatility shows how events—ranging from Elon Musk’s tweets and PayPal’s integration to ETF launches and the FTX collapse—have impacted market sentiment. A fundamental threat to Bitcoin’s encryption could lead to panicked sell-offs, miner withdrawals, and a reduced mining difficulty, potentially opening the door to a 51% QC attack with fewer qubits.

To prevent such a scenario, Bitcoin holders and developers would do well to keep up with QC developments.

This is a guest post by Shane Neagle. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

MicroStrategy: The Torchbearer of Corporate Bitcoin Adoption

MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, has become synonymous with corporate Bitcoin adoption. Though ranked only 220th globally by market capitalization, the company’s influence on the Bitcoin market is disproportionate. In 2024 alone, MicroStrategy acquired 257,000 BTC—exceeding the total Bitcoin mined that year (218,829 BTC).

The company’s ambitions show no signs of slowing. It recently announced plans to raise $42 billion for additional Bitcoin purchases, equivalent to 2.6 years’ worth of Bitcoin’s annual production at current rates.

Beyond MicroStrategy: A Growing Movement

MicroStrategy’s actions are just the tip of the iceberg. According to Hougan, 70 publicly traded companies already hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. This list includes not only crypto-native firms like Coinbase and Marathon Digital but also mainstream giants like Tesla, Block, and Mercado Libre. Together, these firms—excluding MicroStrategy—own 141,302 BTC.

Private companies are also significant players. SpaceX, Block.one, and others collectively hold at least 368,043 BTC, based on data from BitcoinTreasuries.com. Hougan highlights that MicroStrategy’s share of the corporate Bitcoin market is already less than 50% and is likely to decline further as adoption grows.

What happens when larger companies, like Meta, which is currently considering a shareholder suggestion to add bitcoin to its balance sheet—20x the size of MicroStrategy start to emulate MicroStrategy’s strategy?

Why Corporate Bitcoin Adoption Is Poised to Accelerate

Two major barriers have historically constrained corporate adoption of Bitcoin: reputational risk and unfavorable accounting rules. Both have shifted dramatically in recent months:

1. Reduced Reputational Risk

Until recently, companies faced significant hurdles in adopting Bitcoin. CEOs and boards were concerned about shareholder lawsuits, regulatory scrutiny, and negative media coverage. However, as Bitcoin gains acceptance at institutional and governmental levels, these fears are dissipating. Post-election, Bitcoin has seen growing bipartisan support in Washington, making it increasingly "commonplace—and even popular—to own Bitcoin," according to Hougan.

2. Favorable Accounting Changes

The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) introduced a new guideline, ASU 2023-08, that fundamentally changes how Bitcoin is accounted for. Previously, companies were required to mark Bitcoin as an intangible asset, forcing them to write down its value during price declines but preventing upward adjustments when prices rose.

Under the new rule, Bitcoin can now be marked to market, allowing companies to recognize profits as its price appreciates. This change removes a significant disincentive and is expected to drive exponential growth in corporate Bitcoin holdings.

The "Why" Behind Corporate Bitcoin Adoption

Corporate motivations for holding Bitcoin mirror those of individual investors. Hougan outlines several reasons:

• Hedging Against Inflation: Bitcoin is viewed as a safeguard against currency debasement.
• Speculation: Some companies aim to boost stock prices through Bitcoin exposure.
• Cultural Signaling: Holding Bitcoin signals alignment with innovation and attracts a younger, tech-savvy customer base.
• Strategic Hunches: For many, Bitcoin ownership is a calculated gamble.

Hougan asserts that the motivations behind corporate adoption matter less than the magnitude of demand. "You just need to look at the numbers," he writes. "Where does all this demand look like it’s going? And what would that mean for the market?"

A Megatrend That Could Redefine Markets

Hougan’s memo paints a bullish picture of Bitcoin’s future. If hundreds of companies follow MicroStrategy’s lead, the cumulative demand could drive Bitcoin’s price significantly higher in the coming year. With 70 companies already on board under less favorable conditions, the stage is set for an explosion in adoption.

This trend not only highlights Bitcoin’s evolving role as a treasury asset but also underscores its growing acceptance as a mainstream financial instrument. For mature investors, the implications are clear: the next 18 months could mark a pivotal period in Bitcoin’s journey from speculative asset to institutional cornerstone.

The Time to Buy Is Now

With reputational risks fading, accounting rules evolving, and demand accelerating, Bitcoin’s integration into corporate treasuries appears inevitable. Hougan’s analysis invites investors to consider the broader implications:

If corporations truly embrace Bitcoin at scale, what could that mean for the market’s future? For savvy investors, the answer might lie in acting sooner rather than later.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Each of his tales come across as works of fiction in which he, often compelled by little more than blind faith and a desire to utilize cheap energy for Bitcoin mining, comes out on top after struggling through soul-shaking trials and tribulations.

And what’s perhaps most mystifying is that he tells many of these stories while smiling from ear to ear, beaming with a certain radiance that comes from having an indefatigable spirit (except for when he tells parts of the stories where others are hurt, wronged or killed; at those points he grows somber).

To quickly provide an overview of his journey, since 2017, the 55-year-old citizen of France and co-founder of BigBlock Datacenter, a Bitcoin mining company, has traversed the planet. From former Soviet states to Africa to The Middle East to South America, he’s been in search of stranded energy for this company’s operations, witnessing both the best and worst of what humanity has to offer in the process.

Gouspillou has become most well known for helping to establish a Bitcoin mining facilities in Virunga National Park in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where some of the operation’s proceeds have gone back to both the park for its conservation efforts as well as to bettering the the lives of those in communities that surround the facilities.

Gouspillou has also seen how Bitcoin mining is furthering efforts to electrify rural Africa. After what he’s seen on this front, he believes that we cannot live in a world without Bitcoin mining at this point because “it’s just too useful,” as he puts it.

But Gouspillou hasn’t always been a Bitcoin believer, nor a successful entrepreneur. Before finding Bitcoin, his professional life was more run-of-the-mill, as he held a number of salaried positions in a handful of fields that seemed notably less exciting than running Bitcoin mining operations in some of the most off-the-beaten-path regions of the world.

Gouspillou’s Life Before Bitcoin

Before falling down the proverbial Bitcoin rabbit hole in 2015, Gouspillou had a number of different jobs ranging from working for a real estate developer to working for a forestry company in Asia to importing dry cleaning machines for companies as big as Euro Disney.

“I'm not a scientist or an engineer,” Gouspillou told Bitcoin Magazine.

“I’m a businessman, and my training is in marketing and sales. It was hard for me to understand Bitcoin at first,” he added.

He first heard about Bitcoin in 2010 when his childhood friend and now co-founder of BigBlock Datacenter, Jean-François Augusti, began mining it.

Gouspillou dismissed his friend’s efforts back then; he felt Augusti was wasting his time mining bitcoin.

Five years later, though, Bitcoin piqued Gouspillou’s interest, and he spent most of 2015 researching it. Toward the latter part of that year, he approached Augusti with a new perspective on Bitcoin and proposed that they start mining together.

Shortly thereafter, the two set up amateur operations in a small industrial space they rented. And by June 2017, they had moved their operations to a former Alcatel (a former French telecommunications equipment company) factory Orvault, a small town outside of Gouspillou's home town of Nantes.

The Early Days Of BigBlock Datacenter

At this point, Gouspillou and Augusti had formally incorporated BigBlock Datacenter and began receiving funding from outside investors.

The facility in Orvault was their first operation, while the second one was in Odessa, Ukraine. What the two locations had in common was access to cheap power.

In Odessa, Gouspillou and Augusti had a container with 200 S9 ASIC miners that they maintained on their own.

“The operation was very small compared to what we have now, but, at that moment, it was very big to us because we were alone to do the work,” recalled Gouspillou.

Aside from the technical challenges that came with learning how to operate a bitcoin mining farm, Gouspillou and his partner ran into other hurdles, as well.

“It was very difficult to work in Ukraine at that time, because people in Europe and in the banks used to say, ‘Are you crazy? It's a terrorist state — there’s only mafia in this country,’” recalled Gouspillou.

As it turned out, the bad guys in the country didn’t just include members of the mafia but corrupt government officials, as well.

“We had big issues with the government, particularly the Secret Service, the SBU,” said Gouspillou.

“They came one day to seize our farm, and we got shut down for three months. We negotiated and gave them eight bitcoin. That was the price to let us work,” he added.

“Soon after we reconnected the ASICs, though, it was too late. The price of electricity had doubled. So, we left to go to Kazakhstan by 2018.”

Gouspillou and Augusti were two of the first foreigners to begin mining in Kazakhstan. They set up shop on the same lake as Valery Vavilov, founder and CEO of Bitfury, and his team and mined there before falling victim to another shakedown.

“We lost a lot of machines in Kazakhstan,” said Gouspillou.

“The mafia took the machines, and then they sequestered me overnight after a meeting and asked me to buy the machines back from them,” he added.

“Between this and the price of bitcoin crashing in 2018, I lost 20 kilograms in one year.”

Gouspillou and his partner left Kazakhstan soon after to set up a small operation in Siberia, Russia (which has become even smaller in recent years).

Gouspillou remembers well the toll that all of this took not only on him but on his family, as well.

“My wife said, ‘Why don't you change your work? Why don't you return to a normal job? Your fucking bitcoin is destroying us,’” he recalled.

“I was in my late 40s, not very young, and maybe it was not the right moment to be taking so many risks,” he added.

“But I didn’t want to stop. Jean-François and I continued to be very confident about the price of Bitcoin rising again one day.”

Opportunity In The Congo

By 2019, rise again it did, alleviating some of Gouspillou’s financial pain in the process.

“The price saved us because we had the capacity to pay back our investors for some ASICs we lost because of the mafia,” said Gouspillou.

Gouspillou and Augusti were able to buy a new fleet of ASICs while the price of the machines was very low, which helped to make their operations very profitable moving forward, especially as the 2020 bitcoin bull run accelerated.

And the winds of fate really shifted when Gouspillou first met Prince Emmanuel de Merode of Belgium, a conservationist and anthropologist who works to protect Virunga and establish peace in the DRC.

“In 2020, he asked me to create a mining farm in Virunga,” said Gouspillou.

“It was the best moment of the life of the company, because we became profitable on our facilities around the globe and well-known when we took this opportunity in Virunga,” he added.

“Before Virunga, we were mining. With Virunga, we implemented mining that was socially useful.” (More on how mining in Virunga is "socially useful" later in the piece.)

This isn’t to say that starting the farm in the Congo was easy, though.

Gouspillou described how there’s been fighting in this region long before he and Augusti brought their first container of ASICs there, and the fighting has only intensified since.

“I am supposed to go to Virunga next week, but I have to wait because there is a deep war in this region at the moment,” explained Gouspillou.

Despite the conflict, Gouspillou, Augusti and the two other team members that founded the Virunga farm have had notable success in the region. They started with two containers filled with 700 ASIC S9s. These machines have been powered by hydroelectric energy from a plant on the Luviro River, close to Ivingu, since that time.

Mining bitcoin with a low cost of electricity in the region quickly made the operation profitable, which not only made Gouspillou’s investors happy but Prince de Merode, as well.

Prince de Merode had invited Gouspillou and his team to Virunga to aid his work in preserving the park. The arrangement looked like this: Initially, Gouspillou and his team brought in two containers — one owned by BigBlock Datacenter and one owned by the park. BigBlock Datacenter paid the electricity costs for their container but managed both. (Now, there are 10 containers in the park, seven owned by BigBlock Datacenter and 3 owned by the park.)

The profits from the bitcoin mined by the park went/go to the park to help preserve it. The mining farm also began employing locals who would otherwise have to resort to burning trees in efforts to produce coal that they could sell.

The benefits of establishing this plant in the region are illustrated in a short documentary Gouspillou showed at Adopting Bitcoin El Salvador 2023 (1:29-7:05 in the following video):

More recently, Gouspillou and his team realized that they could use the heat produced from the mining to dry fruits as well as cocoa beans, which are used to make chocolate.

While the mining farm currently employs 15 people full time, the fruit and cocoa drying efforts have created another 50-60 part-time jobs for those living around the farm. Gouspillou sees the potential for these operations to scale up in the near future.

“With the fruits, we can imagine creating 100 to 300 jobs for people,” he said.

But in the breath after Gouspillou discussed the potential in the region, he also touched on the hardships, some of which have both been heartbreaking and have made scaling difficult.

Hardships

Since the onset of operations in the DRC, Gouspillou has lost a number of team members to both violence and acts of God.

One young man named Moise was killed and washed away in what Gouspillou described as “a rush of water that came down from the mountains.”

(Gouspillou and his team also had to repair the many ASICs that were damaged during this event, many of which were new S19s.)

Then, in another tragic event just six weeks later, members of his team were ambushed, resulting in five deaths.

He described the situation mournfully:

“When the team members leave the farm to go back home, one of their options is to take a plane from the park,” he began.

“But sometimes they don't have enough gas or kerosene, so we have to take a car 30 kilometers to get to a small airport in the jungle, and the road we have to take is dangerous,” he added.

“One of our technicians, the wife of the cook at the farm and the three others in the car were killed by the Mai-Mai (a rebel group in the region).”

Gouspillou and his team took these deaths hard. The technician, a young man named Jones who was also a manager at the farm, had been with the team for four years.

“He started at the lowest level and in three years became the boss of the farm,” said Gouspillou.

“We were very close to him. I knew him very well since the beginning; I hired him,” he added.

What is more, Prince de Merode has lost upwards of 30 rangers from his team that protect the farm due to violence over the course of the four years the farm has been up and running (and 200 since Prince de Merode has been the head of the park).

The violence is something that never gets easy to deal with, according to Gouspillou.

“You have something like 300 different gangs in the region,” he said.

“When we started in 2020, Emmanuel told us it had gotten calmer as compared to previous years. However, since then, it’s gotten worse every year,” he added.

How Bitcoin Mining Transforms Regions In Africa

Despite the challenging circumstances, Gouspillou remains optimistic. He’s seen the positive effects Bitcoin mining has had not just in the DRC, but next door in the Republic of the Congo, where Gouspillou and his team now operate, as well.

BigBlock Datacenter has built one of their newest facilities in Liouesso, a town in the north of the country. In this region, there’s hardly any industry, in part due to a lack of electrification, but that’s changing due to the mining operations.

“When you give money to the producer of electricity, you change the life of a region,” Gouspillou explained.

“In the town, they have a 20 megawatt power plant, but they only use two to three megawatts to feed the town. So, we built a 12 megawatt farm there,” he added.

“For the electricity provider, this is very important. We are a big client for him. He can now pull the lines to bring electricity to some small village because he has some money.”

The effect that Gouspillou described is the same as what’s happening in Kenya, Botswana and Malawi, the countries in which Gridless, another Bitcoin mining company, operates. Like BigBlock Datacenter, Gridless purchases excess power from hydroelectric power plants in rural Africa, giving energy providers a new stream of revenue, allowing them to expand their operations further into the countryside. This process gives some African communities access to electricity for the first time.

Gouspillou described how it’s virtually a no-brainer to take advantage of this excess power, as many hydroelectric plants in Africa are built to produce more power than they’re capable of dispensing.

“You have so many big hydro power plants, and they don't have the lines to distribute this electricity,” said Gouspillou.

“In Cameroon right now, a big dam built by EDF (Électricité de France, France’s national power company) produces 80% more electricity than it distributes,” he added.

“When you create a big power plant, it’s normally too big — wherever you build it — because there’s no benefit to building too small. Building a 200 megawatt plant costs doesn't cost double what building a 100 megawatt plant costs.”

Gouspillou went on to describe how he advised Nemo Semret, the first Bitcoin miner in Ethiopia, who now helps oversee the country’s large-scale, state-sponsored mining operations.

“I gave him some advice on how to make mining containers four years ago, and now the country is mining with 600 megawatts,” Gouspillou said. “There’s huge potential for expansion there, too.”

Beyond furthering the electrification of rural Africa, Gouspillou’s mining efforts are having other notably positive impacts on their surrounding communities, as well.

Community Impact

BigBlock Datacenter’s new farm in Liouesso currently employs 15 full-time technicians and 10 service staff including cooks, assistants, laundry staff, cleaning and grounds maintenance staff and drivers. And it plans to launch operations for fruit drying in the second half of 2025.

“There we have enormous drying capacity: enough to employ over 100 people,” Gouspillou noted.

More than providing community members with jobs, though, Gouspillou and his team have made other investments in the community.

A number of employees for the main farm in the DRC have children who attend a school in the region, which is five kilometers from the farm’s camp. BigBlock Datacenter has provided a Toyota bus to ensure school bus service since the first set up operations there.

The children and teachers once walked this distance every day.

To help lessen this burden, Gouspillou first lent the community members his car so that they could drive the distance instead of walking it. And, more recently, he’s brought in a bus to help transport the community’s residents to and from the school in larger numbers.

Furthermore, BigBlock Datacenter has also made improvements to the school itself.

“They did not have electricity in the classrooms, so we installed it,” said Gouspillou, who added that they’ve also financed the repainting of the school.

“These are very cheap investments and they make a big difference for the teachers and students,” he added.

Aujourd’hui, visite de l’école primaire.
y’a d’la joie. https://t.co/CIxiZw7BAJ pic.twitter.com/arUeBc5nji

— Seb Gouspillou (@SebGouspillou) January 15, 2025

Translation: "Today, a visit to the primary school. There is joy."

Gouspillou contextualized his contribution by sharing that other companies that have come to the region have made similar investments for selfish purposes, seemingly trying to downplay his contribution.

"Oil companies do it, too, because they have to compensate for the pollution they create by doing good deeds,” he explained.

The difference with BigBlock Datacenter is that it doesn't burn gas or pollute the environment. It mines bitcoin using renewable energy. So, as I understand it, Gouspillou and his team are giving back because they think it's the right thing to do.

It became clear to me that he’s developed deep bonds with the team members originally from the region as he shared a story about two of them who’ve done extraordinary work. Gouspillou refers to these two team members, Patrick Tsongo and Ernest Kyeya, as two of “the real heroes from Virunga.”

“Ernest has been the manager of the Virunga farm, and Patrick his second in command,” said Gouspillou.

“We employed them four years ago when they were 23 years old. Now they have the capacity to create a farm. They have the capacity to repair ASICs, which is valuable because even if our machines are under warranty, we can’t send them back because the chances they will get stolen in transit are high,” he added.

“They have the capacity to repair all kinds of issues. I think they are the best technicians in the mining world now.”

Ernest and Patrick are now launching the new farm in the Republic of the Congo, and they recently left the DRC for the first time in their lives to do so.

“Three months ago, we went to Pointe-Noire, a port by the sea in the Republic of the Congo, and it was the first time they saw the sea,” said Gouspillou. “They’re so grateful.”

Gouspillou also mentioned that they’ve become tried and true Bitcoiners, as BigBlock Datacenter has given them a bitcoin bonus each year, some of which they’ve held onto and used as it’s appreciated.

“At the beginning, they used to sell it,” said Gouspillou.

“However, they recently bought land with the bitcoin they’ve saved. So, now they’re crazy about Bitcoin. They love it,” he added.

The Future Of BigBlock Datacenter

Moving forward, Gouspillou and his team plan to continue to expand their operations globally.

They currently have mining projects in five African countries as well as others in Paraguay (where Gouspillou says it’s difficult to work because of the mafia presence in the country), Finland, Oman and the small one in Siberia they started years ago.

“We were the first miner in Oman, and I was the guy who convinced the government to start mining,” explained Gouspillou. “We started with two containers, and now the country has big miners with facilities that can mine with up to 300 megawatts.”

They also moved their headquarters to El Salvador six months ago, where they are incorporated as BigBlock El Salvador.

While Gouspillou and his team can likely expand anywhere from here, he shared that he prefers to focus on growing their operations in Africa, as he is most excited about what his team is working on in the Republic of the Congo right now.

Toward the end of my interview with Gouspillou, when I asked him how it feels to see his company grow to the point it has after starting the process in his late-40s, he chuckled before responding with the following:

“Maybe I was a little bit too old, but we had time to build something solid. Now, it’s only pleasure with this business.”

In his Take from yesterday, Frank invited bitcoiners to join Nostr: “The world’s biggest bitcoin circular economy.” I endorse this invitation; Nostr aligns much better with Bitcoin’s original values than — specifically — Elon Musk’s X.

In much the same way that the money in your bank account isn’t really yours, your posts on X aren’t either — in contrast, your Nostr posts are connected to your own public key. Like PayPal blocking money transfers, X can decide to censor what you have to say, but no single entity has that power on Nostr. And while X manipulates its algorithm to steer the conversation like the Fed’s manipulation of interest rates to steer the economy, Nostr gives this power back to the users. Now that “President Musk” is de facto entering the White House, you could even argue X is becoming part of the government. X is fiat.

Perhaps even more importantly — at least for me personally — my experience on Nostr is by now superior to what I encounter on X… admittedly a low bar. Whereas I sometimes find interesting insights on Nostr, most of what I see on the platform formerly known as Twitter these days are generic TikTok-style memes, rage-bait, and shit takes from Kekius Maximus himself.

I do still post on X sometimes, but I’ve increasingly disengaged from the conversation over there and will likely continue to do so. Meanwhile, I’ve found myself spending more time on Nostr (specifically through Damus and Amesthyst), and I expect this to only increase.

Sure, Nostr is still niche for now, and perhaps it will remain niche compared to X. Judging by the hype around ETFs, MicroStrategy and Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, trusting central parties is pretty hip among many bitcoiners nowadays, anyways.

But I will gladly take Nostr’s niche signal over X’s noisy masses.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Everyone has their own unique sense of style, but if you are wearing Bitcoin merch like the shirt in the X post below out in public — you should probably stop doing so.

This Bitcoin shirt is cringe as fuck.

Have fun getting 7 dollar wrench attacked. pic.twitter.com/zRlT2CFrIg

— Breadman (@BTCBreadMan) January 11, 2025

I agree with this post in that this shirt is cringe as fuck and will only bring unwanted attention.

Most people don’t understand Bitcoin and the lingo adjacent to it. If you’re wearing this out in public, the majority of people are not even going to understand it and will move on with their day, completely forgetting about it. So if you’re wearing the shirt, you’re not really flexing as hard as you think.

But some who will see you wearing it will know what it means, and this may lead to bad consequences.

Wearing a shirt that broadcasts to everyone that you own a full bitcoin (or basically $100,000, at the time of writing, in the form of a bearer asset) will likely just put a target on your back.

Don’t believe me?

This past November, the CEO of the Canadian company WonderFi was kidnapped and held for ransom. And more recently, a Pakistani crypto trader was kidnapped and forced to pay $340,000 to the kidnappers from his Binance account.

I’m not trying to scare anyone, but these things can happen, and you should at least avoid putting yourself in such a situation.

These criminals may or may not know how Bitcoin works, and it’s probably worse if they don’t. Because they might think you have it all on one exchange, or that you have your private keys located in one place that is easy to obtain, therefore thinking you are probably an easy target. And if you tell them you physically cannot give up your coins, and they don’t believe you, things could get ugly quick.

I’m not saying to never talk to anyone about Bitcoin ever or to be 100% secretive about it — I mean, I’m a public figure in this space and have thought through how to best limit the chances of something bad like this happening to me. The security of your bitcoin is important, but also is your personal security. Luckily for me, I am an American and have my second amendment rights. Protecting my Bitcoin from a potential $5 wrench attack is a lot easier with a firearm.

Upgraded my bitcoin security today by buying a Glock 19

— Nikolaus (@nikcantmine) December 26, 2020

If you are a proud owner of one full bitcoin, it’s fine to celebrate it, as that is a feat that most people on the planet will never be able to achieve.

My advice to you, though, is to celebrate it in a way that is more private, like with no one more than your family and very close friends that you trust. You can post online on X or Reddit anonymously about it if you really want to have a deeper conversation about it or to get the dopamine from all the other anons congratulating you on the accomplishment.

Don’t tell people how much bitcoin you own, and definitely don’t wear shirts that disclose it. Just stay humble and stack more bitcoin.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Over the past year, the Bitcoin Renaissance has brought significant attention to BTCfi, or “Bitcoin DeFi” applications. Despite the hype, very few of these applications have delivered on their promises or managed to retain a meaningful number of “actual” users.

To put things into perspective, the leading lending platform for Bitcoin assets, Liquidium, allows users to borrow against their Runes, Ordinals, and BRC-20 assets. Where does the yield come from, you ask? Just like any other loan, borrowers pay an interest rate to lenders in exchange for their Bitcoin. Additionally, to ensure the security of the loans, they are always overcollateralized by the Bitcoin assets themselves.

How big is Bitcoin DeFi right now? It depends on your perspective.

In about 12 months, Liquidium has executed over 75,000 loans, representing more than $360 million in total loan volume, and paid over $6.3 million in native BTC interest to lenders.

For BTCfi to be considered “real,” I would argue that these numbers need to grow exponentially and become comparable to those on other chains such as Ethereum or Solana. (Although, I firmly believe that over time, comparisons will become irrelevant as all economic activity will ultimately settle on Bitcoin.)

That said, these achievements are impressive for a protocol that’s barely a year old, operating on a chain where even the slightest mention of DeFi often meets with extreme skepticism. For additional context, Liquidium is already outpacing altcoin competitors such as NFTfi, Arcade, and Sharky in volume.

Bitcoin is evolving in real time, without requiring changes to its base protocol — I’m here for it.

After a rocky start, Runes are now responsible for the majority of loans taken out on Liquidium, outpacing both Ordinals and BRC-20s. Runes is a significantly more efficient protocol that offers a lighter load on the Bitcoin blockchain and delivers a slightly improved user experience. The enhanced user experience provided by Runes not only simplifies the process for existing users, but also attracts a substantial number of new users that would be willing to interest on-chain in a more complex way. In contrast, BRC-20 struggled to acquire new users due to its complexity and less intuitive design. Having additional financial infrastructure like P2P loans is therefore marking a step forward in the usability and adoption of Runes, and potentially other Bitcoin backed assets down the line.

The volume of loans on Liquidium has consistently increased over the past year, with Runes now comprising the majority of activity on the platform.

Ok so Runes are now the dominant asset backing Bitcoin native loans, why should I care? Is this good for Bitcoin?

I would argue that, regardless of your personal opinion about Runes or the on-chain degen games happening right now, the fact that real people trust the Bitcoin blockchain to take out decentralized loans denominated in Bitcoin should make freedom lovers stand up and cheer.

We’re winning.

Bitcoiners have always asserted that no other blockchain can match Bitcoin’s security guarantees. Now, others are beginning to see this too, bringing new forms of economic activity on-chain. This is undeniably bullish.

Moreover, all transactions are natively secured on the Bitcoin blockchain—no wrapping, no bridging, just Bitcoin. We should encourage and support people who are building in this way.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Key Takeaways

• The current Bitcoin cycle shows strong correlations with the 2017 cycle.
• Historical data indicates potential for significant price increases.
• Investor behavior patterns are mirroring those from previous cycles.

Understanding Bitcoin Bull Cycles

Bitcoin has had several bull cycles, each with its own unique characteristics. The most notable was in 2017, where the price skyrocketed. Now, as we analyze the current market, we see some interesting parallels.

The recent price action has been choppy, with Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high above $108,000 before retracing to below $90,000. However, it has since rebounded, and this fluctuation is not uncommon in bull markets.

Comparing Current Cycle to Previous Cycles

When we compare the current cycle to previous ones, particularly the 2017 cycle, we notice some striking similarities. The following points highlight these correlations:

1. Cycle Length: The 2017 cycle peaked at 1068 days from its low, while the 2021 cycle peaked at 1060 days. Currently, we are 779 days into this cycle, suggesting we have a significant amount of time left.
2. Price Action Correlation: The correlation between the current cycle and the 2017 cycle is at an impressive 0.92. This means that the price movements are closely aligned, indicating that we might be following a similar trajectory.
3. Investor Behavior: The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio shows a strong correlation of 0.83 with the 2017 cycle, suggesting that investor behavior is also mirroring past trends.

The Role of Halving Events

Bitcoin halving events have historically been significant markers in the price cycle. The last halving occurred in 2024, and as we look at the current cycle, we see that it closely follows the pattern established in 2017. The halving events in both cycles occurred within a similar timeframe, which could indicate that we are on a similar path.

Future Predictions

Looking ahead, if the current cycle continues to follow the 2017 pattern, we could see a significant price increase throughout 2025. While some predictions suggest prices could reach as high as $1.5 million, it’s essential to approach such forecasts with caution. A more realistic peak might align with historical trends, potentially occurring in late 2025.

Conclusion

In summary, the current Bitcoin bull market shows strong correlations with the 2017 cycle, both in terms of price action and investor behavior. While we may not see the same explosive growth as in 2017, the data suggests that we could be in for an exciting ride in the coming months. As always, it’s crucial to stay informed and make decisions based on thorough analysis.

If you’re interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out Bitcoin Magazine Pro for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

In the face of these challenges, Syria has struggled to maintain monetary stability, with dwindling foreign currency reserves and limited access to global financial systems. However, hope may now be on the horizon since it has been announced that the Middle Eastern nation is planning to legalise Bitcoin, explore using it to back its national currency and use its energy reserves to mine it. This ground-breaking policy could transform not only Syria’s economy but serve as a potential model for other nations in the region that are also grappling with inflation and economic instability.

Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it immune to geopolitical pressures and the monetary policies of individual nations. This independence offers Syria a way to circumvent traditional financial systems dominated by Western powers and sanctions. Legalizing Bitcoin, and potentially backing the Syrian pound with it, will not only facilitate monetary stability but will do so in a manner that allows the struggling nation to become somewhat immune from regional economic shocks. Bitcoin could also allow citizens and businesses to transact with greater confidence and open up trade channels with countries around the world.

This does make one wonder, localised fiat systems were never a good way to cultivate trade and commerce in the Middle East, where many nations are heavily reliant on each other for basic goods and services and where borders can be porous. Many of these systems are also pegged to the US dollar which does offer a degree of stability but it also allows the US to export its inflation. The region has a long history of trade that relied on gold, since it was widely accepted and recognised as a sound store of value. Bitcoin can now play that role, as it is increasingly recognised as the best store of value and medium of exchange in the world. Bitcoin, like gold, is also much more in-tune with Islamic monetary principles, as I wrote about here.

Furthermore, Syria possesses significant energy reserves, particularly in oil and natural gas. However, due to the war, much of this potential has been untapped or disrupted. In recent years, global energy-intensive Bitcoin mining has demonstrated that regions with surplus energy resources can transform these assets into significant revenue streams. Syria’s plan to use its energy reserves to mine Bitcoin is both practical and innovative. By converting its natural resources into digital assets, Syria can generate wealth independent of traditional export markets. This revenue could then be used to bolster its economy, fund reconstruction projects, and stabilize the Syrian pound by creating Bitcoin-backed reserves. It also gives an incentive for small businesses to explore and invest in mining technology, which can lead to innovation in sustainable energy production and bolster the local economy.

One of the core objectives of Syria’s Bitcoin strategy is to restore trust in its national currency. By partially backing the Syrian pound with Bitcoin, the government can offer citizens a tangible reason to hold and use the local currency. A Bitcoin-backed pound could also attract foreign investment, particularly from tech-savvy individuals and organizations intrigued by the country’s adoption of the digital currency. Such a move also aligns with global trends. El Salvador, for instance, adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021 and saw an increase in tourism and investment, despite initial scepticism. While Syria’s situation is more complex due to ongoing conflict and questions around the ideological inclinations of its new leaders, a similar strategy could yield long-term benefits once the country stabilises.

Syria is not alone in facing inflation and currency devaluation. Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are grappling with similar issues. Lebanon, for example, has experienced a catastrophic financial collapse, with its currency losing over 95% of its value since 2019. Inflation across the region has eroded purchasing power, undermined trust in local currencies, and hindered economic growth. Governments reliant on imports have found it increasingly difficult to stabilize their economies as global commodity prices soar.

Syria’s legalization of Bitcoin and its plan to integrate it into its economy marks a significant turning point in global financial policy. The decentralised nature of Bitcoin gives nations the option to pursue financial empowerment in spite of the wider international context in which they find themselves in. It gives them a form of national self-custody which can act as a hedge against external powers seeking to influence domestic policy in their favour. Whilst challenges remain, such as the need for a better digital infrastructure and wider awareness of Bitcoin in neighbouring countries, it is certainly a bold step in the right direction.

If successful, Syria’s experiment could serve as a blueprint for other nations in the MENA region facing economic instability. By adopting Bitcoin, these nations can protect their citizens from the devastating effects of inflation, restore confidence in their currencies, and unlock new economic opportunities. Countries like Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran, which face similar challenges, could benefit tremendously from integrating Bitcoin into their financial systems. As the global financial landscape continues to evolve, Syria’s bold move into Bitcoin highlights the potential of Bitcoin to address some of the most pressing economic challenges of our time. 

This is a guest post by Ghaffar Hussain. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

I’ve been in Bitcoin for eight years now, and one of the hardest things I’ve faced is explaining Bitcoin to someone new. Whenever someone asks, “What is Bitcoin, and why is it important?” I struggle to give them something short and impactful. I’ve always sent people to resources like Mike Maloney’s Hidden Secrets of Money or Saifedean Ammous’ The Bitcoin Standard. Don’t get me wrong—both are excellent. But let’s be real: Maloney’s 10-part video series and Ammous’s 300+ page book can overwhelm beginners.

That’s why I’m so excited about this new Bitcoin explainer video by Joe Bryan titled “What’s the Problem?” It’s been going absolutely viral on X (formerly Twitter) for good reason. Big names like MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have shared it. Armstrong even called it “a great articulation of just how foundational sound money is to a prosperous society. Bitcoin is a moral imperative.”

The video is just 40 minutes long, and it hits all the key points in a way that’s simple, clear, and visually engaging. It explains the problems with fiat money, the consequences of those problems on society, and how Bitcoin offers a solution. What I love about it is how “normie-friendly” it is. The language and graphics aren’t intimidating or overly technical—they’re designed for someone who knows nothing about Bitcoin.

Honestly, this is the first time I’ve seen a video that perfectly captures why Bitcoin matters without overwhelming people. It’s now my go-to resource. Next time someone asks me about Bitcoin, I’m sending them this video.

If you’re a Bitcoiner—or if you’re just curious about Bitcoin—watch this video. Share it with your friends, your family, and anyone who needs to understand. And Joe, if you’re reading this, thank you for making something so valuable and accessible.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

While many of you may have heard of bitcoin circular economies like El Salvador’s Bitcoin Beach or South Africa’s Bitcoin Ekasi but haven’t been able to go and spend your sats in such a place, please know that in just a few clicks you can join the world’s biggest bitcoin circular economy: Nostr.

Yes, I know that a virtual bitcoin circular economy is different from a physical one, and I tip my hat to all those who are working to establish such economies in the real world, but Nostr is a place where bitcoin is exchanged for value provided nonetheless.

For those new Nostr, it’s an open-source protocol on top of which different types of apps (which are technically called “clients”) can be deployed and used. When you join Nostr, which you can do through any Nostr app, you’re issued a public/private key pair (like a bitcoin wallet), the first of which helps people find you on Nostr apps and the second of which lets you log in to the apps.

Nostr currently has about 42,000 active weekly users who use apps ranging from Damus (comparable to X) to YakiHonne (comparable to Substack or Medium) to Wavlake (comparable to Spotify or Apple Music), whose mobile app is a Nostr client. What’s particularly cool about Nostr is that your followers on one Nostr app follow you across all of its apps. To better picture this, imagine having the same followers on Instagram as you do on X.

Over the course of 2024, I earned over 350,000 sats, now valued at approximately $350 U.S. dollars for posting my thoughts and sharing links to the articles I write and the music I create (Nostr is a particularly cool place for musicians to share their work) — and I had less than 1,000 followers for most of the year.

Just last night, I simply shared my thoughts about how cool Nostr is on Primal, one of my favorite Nostr apps and the one I recommend that you use to get started with Nostr, and earned 2,165 sats for it.

I’ve also zapped (Nostr slang for “sent sats to”) my fair share of creators since joining Nostr, and plan to continue showing love in the form of satoshis in 2025.

So, if you’re a proponent of bitcoin being used as a currency, and you want to start taking part in the world’s biggest bitcoin circular economy, download a Nostr app today, connect it to a Lightning wallet (mobile apps like Primal have a Lightning wallet built in) and join us in accepting and sending bitcoin in exchange for valuable content today.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Last year on May 25, Donald Trump vowed to commute the sentence of early Bitcoin pioneer and Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht to time served if elected president. As we all know, Trump won the election and will take office one week from today.

This leaves a major question on the minds of Bitcoiners: Will Trump actually pardon Ross?

I believe Trump will 100% stay true to his word and free Ross from prison. I have not seen anything to suggest that Trump would do otherwise and have only seen things that make me confident he will follow through on this promise. It should be relatively easy for Trump to do, and given his continuous backing of the Bitcoin industry, I am confident Ross is going to be walking as a free man again soon.

Judging by Ross’ X account, which is currently run by his wife, he is preparing to leave prison soon.

“For my last monthly resolution of 2024, I intend to study every day and to get up to speed as much as I can as I prepare for freedom,” she recently posted on behalf of Ross.

For those unfamiliar with the story, Ross has been in prison since 2013 for creating a website, Silk Road, where users could buy and sell things transacting in bitcoin. He was a non-violent, first-time offender, sentenced to double life plus 40 years without parole. At Ross’ trial, he was not prosecuted for causing any harm or bodily injury, and no victim was named. While Ross was not tried for selling drugs or illegal items himself, he was held responsible for what others listed on Silk Road, which included drugs.

Now, 12 years later, the time has come for Ross to be freed.

In 2022, Ross wrote President Biden a letter asking to be pardoned, in which he explained he did not create the website with any bad intentions and was simply promoting the libertarian ideology he believed in. He also shared that, if freed, he would not do anything to “break the law” again.

President Biden ignored the letter, and kept him in prison. And now President Trump has the chance to let him live the rest of his life as a free man.

Ross himself also believes that Trump will deliver on his promise.

Immense gratitude to everyone who voted for President Trump on my behalf. I trust him to honor his pledge and give me a second chance.

After 11+ years in darkness, I can finally see the light of freedom at the end of the tunnel. Thank you so much, @realDonaldTrump ????

— Ross Ulbricht (@RealRossU) November 12, 2024

I look forward to seeing Ross come home.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

During the 1980’s, a genuine popular movement arose in Poland that ended up toppling the communist regime in that country. Although there were many anticommunist intellectuals writing and being read in Poland at the time, the spark that ignited the peaceful revolution that ended Soviet rule was lit not by the educated elite but by the working class: workers at the Lenin shipyard in Gdańsk launched a strike in 1980 that quickly spread to workers across industries and throughout the country. These workers formed the Interfactory Strike Committee, which drew up a list of 21 demands. Then, in a move reminiscent of the apocryphal story of Martin Luther nailing his 95 theses to the Church in Wittenberg, they wrote their demands on wooden boards and hung them from the gates of the Lenin shipyard.

The Gdańsk strike was triggered, predictably, by the government raising prices in a price-controlled economy while also denying wage increases. To make matters worse, Lenin shipyard managers had just fired a popular forklift operator, Anna Walentynowicz. Her co-workers believed this was political punishment for her union organizing. “What?” You might ask. “A communist government opposed to labor unions?” Yes—throughout the Soviet Bloc, only government-authorized labor unions affiliated with the ruling communist parties were permitted. One of the key demands of the Interfactory Strike Committee was the ability to form independent trade unions.

Of course, the image of workers striking against a communist government was terrible optics for the Polish government. In addition, as a Warsaw Pact country, Poland faced the continuous prospect of military intervention by the USSR. No one knew if or when Moscow would decide to “send in the tanks” like they had done in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. Indeed, Brezhnev and the Politburo debated the idea in 1980. Eventually, they decided against it—in part because the First Secretary of the Polish United Workers’ Party (PZPR), Edward Gierek, feared a national bloodbath. The first round of strikes and protests in Gdańsk had attracted over 700,000 people, and, simply put, the Polish state feared Polish society. PZPR leadership opted to declare Martial Law instead. Thus began a decade of power struggles between the government and the people which culminated in the overthrow of the communist system in 1989.

The remarkable thing about the Polish transition to a market economy was how peaceful it was. That was largely a result of the overwhelming social consensus among Poles of all political orientations that government control of the economy needed to be dramatically lessened. The movement that emerged from the Interfactory Strike Committee was called “Solidarność”, or “Solidarity”, drawing on the trade union tradition of workers standing in solidarity with one another to collectively bargain for better wages and working conditions. Solidarity’s demand for independent trade unions was met: it did indeed become the first non-communist, non-government trade union in the Soviet Bloc.

When the strikes in Gdańsk first erupted, a marginally employed graphic designer, Jerzy Janiszewski, designed a logo for the union based on graffiti that he had seen scrawled on walls in the city. He shaped the letters of “Solidarity” to look like people standing together in a crowd, and he added a Polish flag to emphasize national unity. This logo “went viral”—it quickly began to be used nationwide as a symbol of victory over tyranny.

The success of the Solidarity trade union soon inspired non-working class Poles to “stand in solidarity with Solidarity”, and in this way it became a genuine mass movement. People from all corners of Polish society came together to oppose dictatorship and economic control: Whether left, right, or center, religious or non-religious, people—even many actual members of the PZPR—were so disillusioned and unhappy with “actually existing socialism” that, for a good decade, other social divisions started to matter far less than standing together in the fight for economic and political freedom. In 1989, the Solidarity trade union won the first partially free elections in the Soviet Bloc. This inaugurated the fall of communism in Poland and generated momentum for many similar movements in other Warsaw Pact countries.

Bitcoin as Solidarity

Today, I see many resonances between Solidarność and the growing social movement behind Bitcoin. Like Solidarity, Bitcoin crosscuts ideological and cultural divisions. Whether you are left, right, center, or unaligned; religious or not; a proponent of “tradition” or of rethinking traditional social roles; and regardless of the form of government you prefer (democracy, republicanism, monarchy, theocracy, party rule, etc.)—Bitcoin has appeal. This is because, regardless of what type of government or culture people prefer, they generally want to spend their own money whenever and however they choose. They also want that money to keep its value over time, so that they can save it profitably for themselves and for future generations.

For decades, governments around the world have been chipping away at both of these human desires: they insist on controlling how people spend their money while devaluing it at the same time. This destruction of the savings and economic freedom of entire populations can only continue for so long before people come together to say, “enough.” That is why Bitcoin can be seen as a much-needed monetary reformation: the separation of money and state.

Like Solidarity, Bitcoin is a grassroots movement emerging from below. It has a name, a logo, and open source code that are used worldwide but are not owned by anyone. While the mainstream media pays a lot of attention to “Bitcoin billionaires”, the vast majority of Bitcoin owners are ordinary people—mostly working class—who see in it hope for a better future: A future where the fruits of their labor, their life savings, are not frittered away by irresponsible governments engaged in schemes to devalue currency and control economic life. More symbolically, the 21 demands of the Interfactory Strike Committee mirror the absolute scarcity of the only 21 million bitcoin that will ever be in existence, a number hard coded into the Bitcoin protocol.

Noah’s Ark: Surviving the Flood of Money

During the rise of Solidarity, a group of poets and musicians were touring Poland, performing songs to remind people that a better life was possible. Their names were Jacek Kaczmarski, Przemysław Gintrowski, and Zbigniew Łapiński. They recorded many “protest songs” whose messages had to be carefully worded and concealed to avoid being censored. However, despite their use of poetic metaphors and allusions to history, literature, art, and the Bible, everyone understood what they were really talking about. Their songs enjoyed immense popularity throughout Poland.

I grew up listening to the songs of these three troubadours. My parents, like many in their generation, were active in the Solidarity movement and brought that ethic with them when they immigrated to the United States, where I was born. Some of the trio’s songs have particular resonance for our own historical moment and for the Bitcoin movement. In that spirit, I wanted to share with you one of Kaczmarski, Gintrowski, and Łapinski’s great songs, “Noah’s Ark”. It references the Biblical story of Noah, who survived a massive, months-long flood by building an Ark.

One way to interpret the “flood” the trio sings about in “Noah’s Ark” is as the “flood” of currency that accompanies periods of hyperinflation. Governments that are politically in trouble or collapsing always face severe economic problems, and they often print dramatic amounts of money in order to “boost economic activity” within their borders. This tends to backfire, however, as the value of the money plummets and people become increasingly reluctant to use it. This only compounds the political and economic woes of the regime, accelerating its demise. For this reason, periods of hyperinflation tend to accompany turnovers of political regimes. When I first visited Poland in 1990, for example, it was in the middle of a hyperinflation accompanying the transition between a communist and a capitalist mode of political economy. The national currency had to be entirely re-based and reissued in order to restore public confidence in it.

Those who have survived “floods” of hyperinflation around the world know how devastating they can be. Millions of Polish people lost their entire life savings as a result of the collapse of a politically and economically non-viable system of government. But Kaczmarski, Gintrowski, and Łapiński’s song reminds us that the deluge is survivable—if we have planned ahead and if we believe in our own power, as individuals and as a community, to navigate the storms.

Please enjoy their music and lyrics, which I have translated into English below.

This is a guest post by Natalie Smolenski. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Two days ago, the atebites X account pointed out that THORChain’s lending service currently has nowhere near enough bitcoin to repay its creditors.

As of the time of the post, the total amount of bitcoin to be repaid to depositors was 1,604, while the lending pool only had 592 bitcoin in it.

We need to be raising awareness on just how bad of a shape Thorchain lending is right now, posing a potential risk to the protocol itself.

As it stands, at current mark to market rates for RUNE, complete loan closure will mint 24 million RUNE.

1,604 in BTC collateral, 18,258… pic.twitter.com/OykZbMQCdx

— atebites (@ate_bites) January 8, 2025

As Lava founder Shehzan Maredia explained in a post on X, when you borrow on THORChain, they sell the bitcoin you put up as collateral for their own token, RUNE. When you repay your loan, they sell the RUNE for bitcoin to give you back your collateral.

I predicted the Thorchain collapse in 2023 when they launched their "lending" feature, and it's happening now. The lesson people never seem to learn: any system in crypto that can fail will fail.

When you borrowed on Thorchain, they would sell your BTC collateral for their…

— Shehzan (@MarediaShehzan) January 10, 2025

The actual mechanics of how this works are a bit more complex and are detailed on THORChain’s website.

See screenshots from the website below:

The primary issue in this scenario is that half of the value borrowed in U.S. dollar denominations was borrowed when bitcoin traded at significantly lower prices than that at which bitcoin trades today, according to atebites.

This means that for THORChain to meet its current demands, it will need to mint upwards of 24 million RUNE (as of January 8). While this would only be about 8% of the circulating supply of RUNE, it would lead to a reduction in the price of the asset, which would give THORChain even less purchasing power as they try to buy bitcoin back on behalf of their creditors.

If traders were to start shorting RUNE on top of this, THORChain’s ability to purchase the required amount of bitcoin to redeem its creditors would diminish even further.

This could lead to something akin to the Terra/Luna death spiral we saw in 2022.

With that said, prominent supporter of the project Erik Voorhees shared that THORChain's lending service is operating as it was intended to and that there is no foreseeable danger:

Thorchain continues working as designed.

Yes, loan redemptions cause downward pressure on RUNE price, but scale is not dangerous.

If you're worried, just go pay off your loan.

— Erik Voorhees (@ErikVoorhees) January 10, 2025

A core developer for THORChain that goes by the name Nine Realms on X also made the case that THORChain is resilient:

1/ Addressing Community Concerns

There's been a lot of discussion recently about the state of the network and the outstanding lending protocol liability.

Let’s dive into the facts to shed light on what’s really happening and why we remain confident in THORChain's resilience.

— Nine Realms (@ninerealms_cap) January 10, 2025

With all of this said, if you're still feeling skittish about having lent THORChain your bitcoin as collateral for a loan, you might want to redeem it. If I were using the service, I would.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Privacy is a very important issue. It can be how you manage keeping parts of your life separate. It can be how you maintain your sense of dignity. It can be how you respect someone else’s trust. It can be a matter of your safety, even your life. At the center of all these things, it is the control over your own information. Specifically, control over who is made aware of what.

Understanding who you have to trust to keep your privacy, who you don’t have to trust, how difficult it is to overcome protections of your privacy and who can feasibly accomplish that, all of these are important things for people to understand when trying to achieve privacy.

Bitcoin has one of the most atrocious track records I’ve ever seen at honestly communicating these realities to users when it comes to Bitcoin privacy tools. I’m sure anyone who isn’t brand new to the space is well aware of the years long feud between Wasabi and Samourai, two projects that offered centralized coinjoin coordinators as a service. Samourai developers were arrested in an insane and baseless overreach trying to apply custodial financial regulations to a purely self custodial project, and Wasabi voluntarily deactivated their coordinator over fears of similar legal action.

This is a horrible state of things, but the reality is the state of things has always been horrible. The past few years prior to Samourai’s arrest and Wasabi’s deactivation were a whirlwind of nonsense.

Both teams have downplayed and hidden risks of their own services, while rabidly attacking the other. Both teams have had privacy or security related issues that they did not disclose to users. Both teams dodged around and hid from the simple reality of both projects: whether due to conscious design choices, or implementation flaws, both projects relied on the coordinator being trusted to not de-anonymize its users.

Many people likely would have still used both projects knowing that, but the reality is the choice to do so while those projects were active for most people was uninformed. Privacy is ultimately about patterns in our behavior revealing things about what we are doing, and the risk you take when concealing something is that if not enough effort was taken to keep it private whatever you did can be revealed.

People having their actions revealed can have consequences. It can ruin someone’s social life, it could create legal consequences if violating some law. In the most extreme consequences, it can literally result in someone losing their life.

That is not truly respected by a large swath of people producing privacy tools, and most definitely was not by the teams at Wasabi and Samourai. That needs to change. We don’t need anymore marketing slogans and troll campaigns.

We need objective and rational definitions of threat models. We need real mathematical analysis of the privacy provided. We need to define the monetary and resource costs required to undermine that privacy. We need rational scientific effort, not PR campaigns and slogans.

Without that, privacy for Bitcoin is not going anywhere. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

One year ago today, Gary Gensler and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally capitulated and approved the trading of spot bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETF) to go live the next day. These ETFs would go on to be the best performing ETFs in history, with BlackRock’s ETF $IBIT leading the charge, taking in over $52 billion inflows alone.

I feel like a lot of people are afraid to admit this, or just don’t want to, but the ETFs were the most significant moment in Bitcoin over the course of 2024. Looking back on the year, it feels like everything that went in Bitcoin’s favor was downstream from these approvals. Let me explain.

The six big events that happened in 2024 were as followed:

1. Spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC
2. Donald Trump pledging the USA to embrace Bitcoin
3. MicroStrategy and other corporate adoption of Bitcoin
4. $100,000 price milestone
5. Gary Gensler resigning from the SEC
6. The halving

When BlackRock filed for its ETF towards the tail end of the bear market in 2023, that marked the beginning of the new bull market for me. We immediately saw a stampede of other large asset managers rush to also apply for an ETF and the price of Bitcoin has risen ever since — the price of bitcoin was $24,900 when BlackRock filed its ETF, then it was $46,000 when it was approved, and today we’re sitting at just under $100,000.

The number one driver of interest and more adoption of Bitcoin is its price, not its utility. Large price increases bring in the most eye balls, new pools of capital, and generate more interest in the asset overall. When bitcoin is going down in price, all the tourists leave and only the HODLers remain.

Bitcoin ETFs driving up the price in historic fashion helped set the stage for Donald Trump to embrace it. No longer was Bitcoin just mere magic internet money for a small crowd of people on the internet, it was now backed by the world’s largest asset managers in BlackRock and Fidelity. The massive amounts of inflows into these products was like a tsunami, showcasing how much demand there really was for bitcoin and the new direction our country was going in financially. It showed that this is an industry that is set to grow exponentially, and I believe Trump, like many of the other politicians including senators and congressmen, realized they are better off fighting with us than against us.

Now with the price getting driven up with the backing of the largest asset managers, and a new pro-Bitcoin administration coming into the White House, this gave the green light for MicroStrategy and other corporations to dive deeper into the asset. And that’s exactly what happened.

Michael Saylor ramped up MicroStrategy’s bitcoin purchases like never before, and has no signs of slowing down in 2025. Their stock outperforming bitcoin had caught the attention of countless other publicly traded companies who copied the ‘Bitcoin For Corporations’ strategy, all adding more buying pressure to bitcoin, further driving up the asset. MicroStrategy is raising over $42 billion to buy more bitcoin to front-run everyone who doesn’t own any yet — this large increase in demand and regulatory certainty is sending bitcoin accumulators into a FOMO frenzy.

All of this combined, including the halving event where the production of new bitcoin created was cut in half to only 3.125 BTC per block, sent us to a new all time high over $108,000. The sheer buying demand on most days completely off sets the amount of new coins mined, further driving up the price. Just the other day, BlackRock’s ETF alone bought over 6,078 bitcoin while miners only made 450 new bitcoin. There is not enough bitcoin to go around for everyone, and they are not making any more than 21 million coins.

NEW: ???????? BlackRock's spot #Bitcoin ETF bought 6,078 bitcoin today, while miners only mined 450 new bitcoin.

Absolute. Scarcity. pic.twitter.com/KkHGpP2WAL

— Nikolaus Hoffman (@NikolausHoff) January 8, 2025

The success of these ETFs and change in presidential administration spelt bad news for the SEC and other anti-Bitcoin regulators and politicians. Gary Gensler, who helped hold up the approval of the spot ETFs for years, is officially leaving the SEC. Both of the democrat commissioners on the SEC who voted against the approval are also leaving the commission. And it appears that Bitcoin is now being set up to thrive in the United States over the next four without being attacked by the regulators and politicians who have held back this industry for so long.

The ETFs were a massive moment for this industry, and things would most likely have turned out very differently if they had not been approved. The price of bitcoin would likely be much lower than it is today, and we might have even had a different winner in the US presidential election if they had not been approved. So many great things went in Bitcoin’s favor this past year, and it was all downstream from the ETF approvals.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

The Finney Freedom Prize honours individuals who advance the computer as a tool for protecting individual freedoms worldwide, following in the footsteps of Bitcoin pioneer Hal Finney, who was the first recipient of the award.

An independent committee selected Wuille and Maxwell from a shortlist that included notable bitcoin contributors such as Andreas Antonopoulos, Roya Mahboob, and Ross Ulbricht.

As open-source software, Bitcoin relies on voluntary contributors to maintain, review, and improve its codebase. Unlike a traditional company, bitcoin has no central authority, making the work of developers like Wuille and Maxwell critical to its continued success. Both have played pivotal roles in ensuring bitcoin remains robust, secure, and a practical tool for financial freedom.

“Wuille and Maxwell’s efforts have demonstrably made bitcoin a practical human rights tool for millions of people, especially so many who labor under authoritarian regimes and financial repression across the globe,” the Finney Freedom Prize announcement stated.

Their contributions have helped bitcoin become a powerful financial resource for individuals worldwide, particularly those in repressive environments.

The laureates will split a monetary prize of 100,000,000 satoshis (1 bitcoin), and each will receive a Finney Freedom Prize statue designed by Cryptograffiti.

The next Finney Freedom Laureate, covering the 2016-2020 era (Block Height 420,000 to 630,000), will be announced on January 10, 2026.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Have Bitcoin ETFs Lived Up to Expectations?

A Strong Start

Since their launch, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over 1 million BTC, equivalent to approximately $40 billion in assets under management. Even when accounting for outflows from competing products like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which saw withdrawals of over 400,000 BTC, the net inflows remain significant at about 540,000 BTC.

View Live Chart ????

To put this into perspective, the scale of inflows far exceeds what we witnessed during the launch of the first gold ETFs in 2004. Gold ETFs garnered $3.45 billion in their first year, a fraction of Bitcoin ETFs’ $37.5 billion in inflows over the same period. This highlights the intense institutional interest in Bitcoin as a financial asset.

Bitcoin’s Year of Growth

Following the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, initial price movements were underwhelming, with Bitcoin briefly declining by nearly 20% in a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. However, this bearish trend quickly reversed. Over the past year, Bitcoin prices have risen by approximately 120%, reaching new heights. For comparison, the first year following the launch of gold ETFs saw a modest 9% price increase for gold.

Following the Gold Fractal

When accounting for Bitcoin's 24/7 trading schedule, which results in roughly 5.3 times more yearly trading hours than gold, a striking similarity emerges. By overlaying Bitcoin’s first year of ETF price action with gold’s historical data (adjusted for trading hours), we can see almost the same % returns. If Bitcoin continues to follow gold’s pattern, we could see an additional 83% price increase by mid-2025, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price to around $188,000.

Institutional Strategy

One intriguing insight from Bitcoin ETFs has been the relationship between fund inflows and price movements. A simple strategy of buying Bitcoin on days with positive ETF inflows and selling on days with outflows has consistently outperformed a traditional buy-and-hold approach. From January 2024 to today, this strategy has returned 130%, compared to ~100% for a buy-and-hold investor, an outperformance of nearly 10%.

View Live Chart ????

For more information on this institutional inflow strategy, watch the following video:
Using ETF Data to Outperform Bitcoin [Must Watch]

Supply and Demand Dynamics

While Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over 1 million BTC, this represents only a small fraction of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply of 19.8 million BTC. Corporations like MicroStrategy have also contributed to institutional adoption, collectively holding hundreds of thousands of BTC. Yet, the majority of Bitcoin remains in the hands of individual investors, ensuring that market dynamics are still driven by decentralized supply and demand.

View Live Chart ????

Conclusion

One year in, Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded expectations. With billions in inflows, a significant impact on price appreciation, and increasing institutional adoption, they have solidified their role as a key driver of Bitcoin’s market narrative. While some early skeptics were disappointed by the lack of immediate explosive price action, the long-term outlook remains highly bullish.

The comparisons to gold ETFs provide a compelling roadmap for Bitcoin’s future. If the gold fractal holds true, we could be on the cusp of another major rally. Coupled with favorable macroeconomic conditions and growing institutional interest, Bitcoin’s future looks brighter than ever.

Explore live data, charts, indicators, and in-depth research to stay ahead of Bitcoin's price action at Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Perhaps the best way to decentralize the Bitcoin network is through home mining, and things are trending in the right direction.

Yesterday, Solo Satoshi announced the Bitaxe Touch (built by ACS ASIC Repair), the latest device in the world of home bitcoin mining.

This new device will utilize the BM1370 ASIC chip from the Bitmain S21 Pro and will be able to reach a hashrate of up to 1.6 TH/s.

It will also feature a touch screen that displays Bitcoin network stats including the total network hashrate, overall network difficulty and the block height.

Say hello to the future of Bitcoin home mining.

The world’s first open source touch screen Bitcoin miner. Built on top of Bitaxe and AxeOS, this device marks another chapter in the Open Source Bitcoin Mining Revolution.

Solo Satoshi presents: The Bitaxe Touch. pic.twitter.com/8AVCBvfCRo

— Solosatoshi.com™⚡️ (@SoloSatoshi) January 8, 2025

Part of what’s fueling innovation like the Bitaxe Touch is the work of Open Source Miners United, a Discord group started by Skot from Bitaxe with over 5,500 members where home mining enthusiasts share ideas and blueprints for new devices.

The group has been set up so that anyone who wants to contribute to the development of the Bitaxe project can do so, and it even offers grants to certain contributors.

The work of such contributors will likely be made easier when Block releases its own ASIC chip, which mining device developers will be able to use in their machines.

And for those of you who aren’t so technically-inclined but who still want to get into the home mining space (and who live in colder climates), you can always purchase a Heatbit, which is essentially a plug-and-play home mining device that also serves as a space heater and an air purifier.

Even with all of these new devices coming to market, I still believe we’re in the early innings of the home bitcoin mining movement and that this space will continue to blossom as more developers and everyday people enter into it.

Indeed, the future of home mining is looking bright.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Steve Hanke is wrong about something Bitcoin related once again.

He’s recently taken aim at the idea of the U.S. creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

In the video embedded in the X post below, Hanke claimed that converting government savings into bitcoin would be a "drag on the economy" because those savings wouldn't be invested in "real capital assets that produce things."He even doubled down, saying bitcoin doesn't build factories, create jobs, or drive innovation.

A US BITCOIN STRATEGIC RESERVE = A STUPID IDEA.

Savings funneled into Bitcoin aren't building factories, creating jobs, or driving innovation. pic.twitter.com/VaH0p7Y835

— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) January 6, 2025

I couldn't disagree more—and I think his argument completely misses the point.

Let's get honest about what a SBR is supposed to do. It's not about building factories or creating jobs directly. It's about protecting a country's economy, hedging against risk, and ensuring long-term economic stability.

Does Hanke think the U.S. should sell its gold and oil reserves or food and weapons stockpiles because they aren't "driving innovation"? Of course not. Those reserves exist to provide security and stability, not to act like venture capital investments.

A SBR would work in the same way. It wouldn't directly create jobs, but it would provide the U.S. with a hedge against inflation, dollar debasement, and geopolitical risks.

Let's face it—the dollar isn't as strong as it used to be, and holding bitcoin would give the U.S. a safety net as the world shifts toward decentralized money. It's about preparing for the future, not clinging to outdated economic models.

Hanke also forgets how reserves can provide leverage. If bitcoin becomes the world's most valuable asset and the U.S. has established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, it will be ahead of the game. That's not just a hedge—it's a massive geopolitical advantage. It would strengthen confidence in the U.S. financial system.

His take shows he doesn't understand what reserves are for. They're about risk management and long-term strategy, not short-term job creation. A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve isn't a "drag on the economy." It's an innovative, forward-thinking move.

The idea of an SBR isn't stupid. What's stupid is dismissing it with outdated arguments.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

With bitcoin’s price dipping significantly below $100k again, the “buy the dip” cheerleaders are out in full force.

But I’m here to offer a different perspective: Don’t buy the dip.

Before I continue, let me please make it clear that nothing that I write in this Take is investment advice.

Why would I say such a thing? Is it that I hate bitcoin all of a sudden?

No.

I have other reasons for making such a statement.

The first is that I’m trying to keep you from becoming exit liquidity for people like this:

Don’t worry guys.

The retards are coming. pic.twitter.com/1YL8keRHYa

— Breadman (@BTCBreadMan) January 8, 2025

The second is that I like to buy bitcoin when it’s truly selling at a discount, not just when it appears to be selling at one.

Let me explain.

Right now, bitcoin is trading about 13% off of its all-time highs. While that may be a significant discount for an asset in the world of traditional finance, it’s hardly more than a daily fluctuation in the world of bitcoin.

In the four-year bitcoin cycles, bitcoin’s price tends to skyrocket during the years of and after its halving. And then the year that follows tends to be pretty terrible for bitcoin’s price. During that year, bitcoin’s price hits a low, which tends to be in the range of the prior cycle’s high.

That was a bit confusing, so let me give you an example.

In 2022, the last “pretty terrible” year, bitcoin's price dropped to about $15,500, which was actually about $3,500 lower than bitcoin’s top from the previous cycle — $20,000.

If something comparable were to happen in 2026, we’d see bitcoin’s price at approximately $53k (23% below the previous cycle’s all-time high of $69k). Now, that would be a significant discount and a dip worth buying.

I don’t share this perspective to dissuade you from continuing with something like a dollar-cost averaging bitcoin investment strategy (one of the best strategies out there for the average retail investor). Instead, I share it because if a loved one came to me and asked me if now was a good time to buy bitcoin, I’d say “not really.”

I try to maximize the financial upside (in fiat terms) of investing in bitcoin as much as possible for those who ask me about investing in it — especially those who are new to it. And while I could maybe help someone trade in and out of a bitcoin position in the next year or so, I don’t like to do this, as I encourage people to buy and hold bitcoin for the long haul.

But, Frank, the U.S. might announce a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and other nations may follow suit! And look at all the companies buying bitcoin for their treasuries!

Yes, these things are happening, and so are things like Bhutan selling bitcoin and so have things like Germany selling bitcoin and Tesla selling bitcoin.

And the following announcement was made just hours after I initially published this piece:

JUST IN: ???????? US government cleared to sell 69,370 #bitcoin worth $6.5 billion seized from Silk Road, a federal judge ruled. pic.twitter.com/dGB7S9iO8T

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 9, 2025

Up until now, all bitcoin price cycles have been similar. So, while it looks like we have another year of bitcoin price upside in store for us, I think we drop far lower than this current price level when the tables turn.

And that’s when I’ll be proactively buying.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

One of the secondary benefits of how the Lightning Network works as a scaling solution is privacy. It’s by no means perfect or undefeatable privacy, but it is a better than naive use of the base layer blockchain itself. It’s also not perfectly balanced. The sender learns a good many details about the receiver, but the receiver learns nothing about the sender.

For casual payments it is a big improvement for consumers over on-chain payments. It does have one big problem though, something not unique to Lightning, but a problem for all onion routed systems.

Global Passive Adversaries. That means an actor who is able to passively monitor all the internet connections between everyone involved in a network like Lightning, or Tor. When a message crosses the network, the adversary can see a message move from one node to a second node, and also see that a message went from the second node to a third right after it received one from the first.

If a global adversary exists, then while they cannot see the specific details of a message across the network, they can see where it originated from and where it arrived. That is plenty enough information to deanonymize a payment system like Lightning, where the chief matter of importance is after all who is paying who.

This is the true fundamental shortcoming, Lightning can be very private for senders from their merchants, and soon with coming improvements for receivers from the person paying them, but it is very weak against a truly powerful global adversary.

This can be mitigated however. Payments stand out to a global adversary because that is the majority of traffic nodes will send, and the timing relationship from A to B to C to D, etc. These heuristics can be broken by nodes sending fake traffic to each other regularly.

Fake traffic could take the form of a constant barrage of fake packets, simply replacing fake ones with real messages when payments are routed. This would make it impossible to correlate anything. Other options would be to add decoy messages that continue on after the completion of a payment, or opportunistically make payments when such decoy messages reach you.

Different strategies would have different degrees of success in creating privacy, but something needs to be done. Multiple improvements have been made, or are coming down the pipeline, in the form of BOLT 12 and blinded path invoices, but the larger picture is still the same as it was: totally transparent to a powerful adversary.

Given the scale of importance Bitcoin has rapidly grown to, maybe it’s time to reconsider the larger picture of privacy and not just incremental local improvements. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

In less than two weeks, the United States will have a new administration in office, but there’s already much debate about President-elect Donald Trump and his policies.

One of the most controversial — his expressed interest in purchasing Greenland for strategic, economic and political reasons.

Trump claims that buying Greenland would be vital to U.S. national security, both for monitoring and defense purposes given its location near Canada and Russia, as well as its energy.

On that note, Greenland is of interest given its vast amount of natural resources in hydropower, wind power, geothermal energy, and rare earth minerals. This is particularly interesting from a Bitcoin perspective, especially given Greenland’s cold climate and lack of Bitcoin mining there currently now presents an entirely new opportunity for the country.

The majority of American Bitcoin mining today is done in the states of Texas, Georgia, New York and North Dakota. Purchasing Greenland could give the United States the opportunity to mine in more favorable conditions and further increase and decentralize the hashrate of Bitcoin.

This could also be a strategic play for America, considering Russia’s Vladimir Putin had signed a law to legalize Bitcoin mining in August of 2024 and stated in 2022 that the country has “some competitive advantages” in Bitcoin mining given its cold climate.

With Donald Trump’s ongoing support of American Bitcoin miners and expressed interest in leading in this industry before competing countries embrace it — this gives Trump the opportunity to drastically expand U.S. dominance in Bitcoin mining under favorable conditions.

This wouldn’t just be a win for America, but Greenland would also benefit from it as well. Greenland is highly dependent on the Danish government for financial support, and Bitcoin mining could offer an alternative economic avenue. Greenland would then have the full support of the United States government to utilize their natural and untapped resources to mine Bitcoin and get anything else they need support in. Greenland would then be able to create more jobs to build the needed infrastructure to run these operations and bring in additional revenue from the mined bitcoin. And as the price of Bitcoin goes up, that only makes the mined BTC and mining operations all the more valuable. Seems like a win-win to me.

Trump is very eager to acquire Greenland and make it a U.S. territory. If he does, it could be a massive boost for Bitcoin as well.

BREAKING: President Trump just announced that he will place massive tariffs on Denmark if they don't immediately relinquish all control of Greenland.

"We need Greenland for national security purposes."

LET THE 3D CHESS COMMENCE! pic.twitter.com/mZaqY3V2Y6

— George (@BehizyTweets) January 7, 2025

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

To ensure the network’s decentralization, robustness and anti-fragility, we need to maintain the very components that assure us, through time-tested battles, of these very properties. No entity in the world can feel like attacking Bitcoin will be a successful endevour. The best way to do that is to spread Bitcoin as far as possible to all corners of the globe by running nodes. Just like a monetary virus. The more it spreads, the higher the chance it succeeds.

Satoshi mentioned several times that all the former electronic money projects failed due to their centralization features. A monopoly on the supply of money is a power that governments and the financial system will not let go easily. To make sure that Bitcoin will not be stopped by any bad actor, it's our duty to ensure that Bitcoin’s decentralization increases all the time. Forever.

A lot of people automatically dismiss e-currency as a lost cause because of all the companies that failed since the 1990's. I hope it's obvious it was only the centrally controlled nature of those systems that doomed them. I think this is the first time we're trying a decentralized, non-trust-based system.

Bitcoin open source implementation of P2P currency

https://www.fbi.gov/charlotte/press-releases/2011/defendant-convicted-of-minting-his-own-currencyhttps://www.indianapolismonthly.com/news-and-opinion/business/mad-money/

Looking thoroughly at what Bitcoin accomplished so far and where it is right now as a global network, it’s a fact that the network is very decentralized. Nevertheless, just like one can argue that bitcoin´s purchasing power doesn’t have a top, bitcoin’s decentralization level also doesn’t have a top. The more, the better! Beyond a certain level of decentralization, any attack on Bitcoin is not only pointless for the attacker, but also detrimental, since the attacker’s failure ends reinforcing bitcoin’s capability to resist any attack, strengthening the network in the process, while diminishing the perceived success of any attempt of attacking Bitcoin. Anti-fragility in its purest form!

What’s the level of decentralization that assures that any potential attacker is completely disincentivized from attacking the network? No one knows for sure. We can only estimate it. Nonetheless, the best strategy is to just decentralize bitcoin as much as we possibly can. And the most important tool that we have at our disposal is running as many nodes as possible all around the world.

Nodes fulfill one of the most, if not the most important role in Bitcoin. By following the protocol rules, they verify and validate all the transactions and all the blocks that get propagated throughout the network. They also relay all this information to other nodes and store all blocks published by miners. If a transaction, block or other piece of information violates the consensus rules of the protocol, nodes automatically reject it. Nodes are essentially the referees of the bitcoin game, making sure that everyone plays fair like they are supposed to.

If more nodes join the network, more referees will be verifying everything that happens in Bitcoin. If more nodes join the network, there will be more copies of the entire blockchain. If more nodes join the network, more assurances there will be that every actor behaves the way it should. Every time a node joins the bitcoin network, anyone that wants to attack it will have to chop off an extra head in order to kill this monetary Hydra called Bitcoin. If you don’t run a node yet, it’s time to do your part.

Unfortunately, and unknowingly to the majority of bitcoin users, the vast majority of miners do not run a node nowadays. Providing valid shares to the pool operator is all that’s necessary to get paid for their work. It’s commonly said that miners are being paid by the network to protect it against all adversarial attacks by building a wall of energy so dense that it’s impossible to penetrate it. However, if we want to continue with this analogy, what we observe is that miners are employees of the pools, not of the bitcoin network. There is no direct connection between miners and the network. Miners are effectively selling computing power in the form of hashrate to the pools. The responsibility of picking the transactions that go in the block, creating the blocks themselves, propagating said blocks found throughout the network and receiving all the necessary information gets delegated to the pools. This effectively means that Pools are the ones censoring, or not, the network and thus undermining Satoshi’s original vision of an open and permissionless protocol for value transfer.

Furthermore, if the level of decentralization hadn’t been reduced enough just by that, there are proxy pools. Proxy pools are basically a wolf maskerading in sheep’s clothing. Same pool, but a different brand. This means that if some big Pool A has 20% of the Hashrate, but 3 smaller Pools B, C and D have 5% each, effectively Pool A controls 35% of the hashrate. That would be enough to do a Selfish Mining attack and harm the network. Thus, what we end up with is just a couple of “main” pool nodes deciding which transactions make it to the blockchain. This situation doesn’t look very decentralized. That’s because it isn’t. Thankfully, there is a way to fix this. It’s called Stratum V2.

Stratum V2 is a new mining protocol that hopes to bring a series of new features that make Bitcoin mining more secure, more efficient and of course, more decentralized. Its reference open-source implementation was developed by an independent, community-run of more than 15 developers over the past three years, battle-tested with more than 30 000 downstreams. With this new protocol, Bitcoin’s decentralization can reach new heights. How, you may ask? By giving miners the ability to create their own block templates and pick the transactions that get included in blocks. To have this capacity, miners must run a node. More nodes means a more decentralized and robust network. Once all miners are the ones building blocks rather than pools, we can finally witness Bitcoin taking another step towards invincible decentralization.

DEMAND pool is the first mining pool to implement the reference implementation of the Stratum V2 protocol. Our mission is to first and foremost, contribute to the network’s decentralization and to end the threat of censorship on Bitcoin. If you’re a miner and want to be in the drivers seat, consider joining our pool. Lifetime special conditions and other features will be available for founding members of our pool.

It’s time to improve Bitcoin’s decentralization. Are you coming? 

This is a guest post by Francisco quadrio Monteiro. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Founders: Mauricio Di Bartolomeo and Adam Reeds

Date Founded: September 2018

Location of Headquarters: N/A (Fully remote)

Number of Employees: 51

Website: https://ledn.io/

Public or Private? Private

“Lending is the type of relationship where you value the return of your assets more than the return on your assets.”

This was Di Bartolomeo’s answer when I asked him what has set Ledn, a bitcoin and crypto borrowing and lending platform, apart from its competitors, including now defunct companies that offered similar services like BlockFi, Celsius and Voyager.

“There's no company in this space that has a better track record of returning your assets than Ledn,” Di Bartolomeo told Bitcoin Magazine.

Since its founding, Ledn has prioritized security and reliability. Di Bartolomeo and his co-founder, Adam Reeds, have not only wanted to win the trust of the traditional financial institutions with which Ledn interfaces but that of Ledn’s global user base, some of whom are accessing financial services for the first time thanks to the company.

And Di Bartolomeo’s work is quite personal to him in part because he understands the importance of Bitcoin thanks to his firsthand experience with it in his home country of Venezuela.

Di Bartolomeo’s Bitcoin Journey

“My family found Bitcoin and started mining it in Venezuela in late 2014/early 2015 in the middle of hyperinflation where basically it was illegal for them to buy or hold U.S. dollars or anything that would preserve value,” recounted Di Bartolomeo.

“When I saw how they and other Venezuelans were using Bitcoin to opt out of their broken system, I thought to myself “How many people in the world live like this and how many people in the world are going to need this?” And my answer was a number that I couldn’t compute in my head,” he added.

Di Bartolomeo decided to begin working in the Bitcoin space soon after. He moved to Canada where he and Reeds began helping miners grow their operations. Di Bartolomeo recalled that these miners wanted to expand but didn’t want to sell their bitcoin to do so.

“They had bitcoin revenues and fiat expenses, and there was no real place for them to get any type of financing,” said Di Bartolomeo.

“We sought financing, but nobody would give us a loan. So, we decided to solve our own problem," he added.

"That was the genesis of Ledn.”

How Ledn Differentiated Itself

When Ledn was founded in 2018, only a few other services like it existed. However, there was a notable difference between Ledn and its competitors.

“There were other bitcoin-backed lenders in the market, but they required tokens,” said Di Bartolomeo.

“This was around the ICO era and we saw Nexo and Celsius come into the space with tokens. My view was that they were only using them to raise cash without selling off equity,” he added.

Di Bartolomeo and Reeds didn’t want to issue a token, as they saw it as a questionable practice from a regulatory perspective.

“When you look at finance at scale, immediately you think about compliance and regulation,” said Di Bartolomeo. “We wanted to build a company that was able to sit in front of BlackRock or Goldman Sachs, heavily regulated banks, and say, ‘Hey, I want to interact with you guys.’”

What is more, Ledn also prioritized transparency. In 2021, it became one of the first major Bitcoin companies to issue a proof of reserves, a system that allows anyone to audit Ledn’s bitcoin holdings.

“We're still the only lender operating in the U.S. or other highly-regulated markets that has this proof of reserves where every six months our clients can come and check it out,” said Di Bartolomeo. “We've been doing this since before it was cool.”

Ledn also publishes a monthly Open Book Report that breaks down Ledn’s lending strategies.

From early on, Di Bartolomeo believed that taking a buttoned-up and transparent approach would foster trust amongst Bitcoin enthusiasts, a group that lives by the “don’t trust, verify” mantra, and his thesis has played out.

Reducing Risks

Of the many products Ledn offers, one is yield generation on bitcoin — the same type of product that caused the demise of BlockFi.

However, Ledn approaches its version of this product differently than its former competitor did.

“We generate Bitcoin yield on bitcoin primarily by lending it to market makers that arbitrage the BlockRock IBIT ETF and units of Coinbase spot,” said Di Bartolomeo.

“These groups are price neutral. They don’t have directional exposure. They’re just closing price gaps and benefitting from volatility,” he added.

BlockFi’s approach was far riskier.

“With BlockFi, there was a duration mismatch,” explained Di Bartolomeo.

“They were taking open-term deposits, and they were deploying them into mining infrastructure that had five-year payback. What do you think is going to happen when somebody shows up before the five years are done?” he added, alluding to the notion that what happened to BlockFi seemed inevitable.

What is more, Ledn only deals in highly liquid assets like bitcoin (and ether, which they added in 2023), which helps alleviate asset liability mismatch risk.

“With bitcoin, you always have people on both sides of the house with demand,” said Di Bartolomeo.

“When you start supporting things like Shiba Inu or Dogecoin and people want to earn interest on those, you then have to turn that Dogecoin into something else, and you create asset liability mismatch in the process,” he added.

Di Bartolomeo also noted that all of Ledn’s products are ring-fenced from one another.

“When you're paying for a custody loan, you are not exposed to the credit risk of our other products,” he said. “This is very similar to how traditional finance works, and it’s something we do very differently as compared to our now defunct peers.”

Growing Competition

As more people begin to view bitcoin as “pristine collateral,” more bitcoin borrowing and lending platforms are destined to pop up. Many already have.

Centralized bitcoin borrowing and lending services like Salt and Nexo remain competitors to Ledn, while institutional bitcoin financing services like Newmarket Capital’s Battery Finance are also poised to cut into Ledn’s business. And services that enable users to borrow against their bitcoin in a non-custodial manner, including Debifi and Lava, may also increase their market share.

Di Bartolomeo is aware of the competition but doesn’t seem concerned. In fact, he believes that in such a market, the biggest winner will be the consumer, and he doesn’t have any plans to change Ledn’s strategy. Instead, he’s looking to double down on what Ledn does best.

“Our sweet spot is going to be individuals or people who prioritize transparency, security of funds and compliance,” said Di Bartolomeo.

“Safety, trust and transparency are what makes Ledn stand out. There is no other operator like us in this space with an equivalent track record as far as loans processed, years in the business and cycles survived,” he added.

“This industry is volatile. You have to have the right expertise and the right set of values powering your team, and I think other companies would be hard pressed to demonstrate what we have over the time that we have. Will you be able to find something cheaper? Yes. Will that be riskier? Absolutely.”

Fostering Financial Inclusion

One of the primary ways in which Ledn differs from traditional borrowing and lending platforms is that its rates don’t differ based on the jurisdiction in which the lender or borrower is located.

“This makes people feel very empowered because they know that whether they're in Madrid or Medellín, they're getting the same rate,” said Di Bartolomeo.

And Di Bartolomeo smiled from ear to ear as he discussed this point, as it seemed to remind him of why he got involved with Bitcoin in the first place.

“This is one of the things that makes me proudest about this business,” he said.

“We have people back in Latin America who've come to us to say we are the first loan they've ever been approved for. This is because all we look at is ‘Did you complete KYC?’; ‘Are you a compliant citizen?’; ‘Do you have Bitcoin?,’” he added.

“It's not ‘Where do you live?’; ‘Who are your parents?’; What’s your skin color?’ I love this aspect of Bitcoin and what we do.”

I've been thinking about this a lot lately: Bitcoin Layer 2 foundations need to start holding bitcoin in their treasuries. It makes too much sense for them not to.

And apparently I’m not the only one.

As someone who's watched this space evolve, let me explain why Bitcoin Layer 2 foundations should listen to Molly and I.

For years, bitcoin was known as "digital rock"—a solid store of value but not much else. But now with the explosion of Bitcoin Layer 2s, bitcoin is becoming a "programmable rock." These layers are adding functionalities like smart contracts and scaling solutions, making bitcoin more versatile than ever.

But here's the thing: these projects raise millions of dollars from VCs and investors, and most of that money ends up sitting in fiat currencies like USD. That's a huge mistake.

Why? Because fiat is a melting ice cube. Every year, it loses 5-10% of its value due to inflation. The longer you hold it, the less it's worth. On the other hand, bitcoin has a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of around 70%. If these foundations held their treasury in bitcoin instead of fiat, their runway wouldn't just stay the same—it would grow.

Imagine having 70% more resources each year to fund developers, grants, and projects. That's the kind of edge that could make or break a Layer 2 ecosystem.

Okay, okay, I get it — Bitcoin is volatile, and these foundations need some stability. Because of this, keeping 3 to 4 years of runway in fiat makes sense. It would help to cover short-term needs. But the rest? It should be in bitcoin. Over the long run, this strategy could double or even triple the runway of these foundations, giving them the time and resources they need to succeed.

There's a precedent for this too. Remember EOS? They raised $4.2 billion in 2018 and reportedly bought 164,000 bitcoin with it. Today, that bitcoin is worth around $16 billion—even though EOS itself fell off the map. Now, imagine if Bitcoin Layer 2 foundations did the same but actually used their bitcoin to grow and sustain their ecosystem. The potential is massive.

At the end of the day, these foundations are building on Bitcoin. They believe in its future, so why not hold it in their treasuries? Bitcoin is the best store of value out there. If you're running a Bitcoin Layer 2 foundation, stop holding depreciating fiat, and start holding bitcoin. It's not just a smart move—it's the move.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

This week, I stumbled across one of the coolest posts I’ve seen in a while – Jason Marquez, who says he is “just a Truck Driver that loves listening to Michael Saylor on YouTube,” revealed he has profited massively from listening to the advice of the MicroStrategy Executive Chairman.

According to Marquez, he invested big in Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet, and now holds $866,000 worth of $MSTR stock, at an average cost of $46 per share — a profit of over $750,000.

I'm just a Truck Driver that loves listening to @saylor videos on YouTube while I'm driving. $MSTR pic.twitter.com/A8DwclhUNx

— Jason Marquez (@jasnmrquez) January 3, 2025

After watching the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX in 2022, Marquez says he got scared out of the market and “went all in on Saylor” because he considered that to be the safest bet. This wasn’t Marquez’s first time seeing money in crypto evaporate, and has said that he got burned on a hack in 2018. After that, he did not feel safe holding any crypto, including bitcoin.

This is the reality for many people in trying to navigate this Wild West industry. Losing money in hacks and exchange collapses is not fun, and it can easily turn people off from wanting to buy and hold bitcoin on their own. I can totally see why Marquez would have rather invested in a stock that is heavily accumulating bitcoin after witnessing these hacks.

Luckily, after getting more comfortable in this space, Marquez says he feels he has enough MSTR and his next move is to DCA into bitcoin. I applaud him because this is the smart move to make because actually owning the keys to your bitcoin in cold storage is the best thing to own in the end, as all fiat trends to $0 against bitcoin over time.

Regardless, at this point in time, Marquez is a soon to be millionaire off of this one stock trade alone, and is well set financially because of it. He put in the work to learn about Bitcoin and the potential of MicroStrategy's BTC accumulation plan, executed a plan of action, took his own hard earned money to invest in the stock, and profited big.

Update on my post from Yesterday. Up more $ today than I make in a year Truck Driving. pic.twitter.com/vkme600mCI

— Jason Marquez (@jasnmrquez) January 3, 2025

This is a legendary bear market story to be told in years to come. It reminds of the story of when American HODL sold his car to buy more bitcoin, riding a moped until bitcoin went higher.

As for me, I refused to get my car fixed. I would jimmy rig it on and off with a screw driver, just so I could stack cheap bitcoin and fix the vehicle later at a higher bitcoin price. Marquez’s story is yet another awesome example of an everyday person taking advantage of the opportunities in Bitcoin and translating that into a massive life upgrade. His trade earned him more money in one day than he makes in a year truck driving. Think about that.

Hats off to you sir, well done. And good luck to you now accumulating bitcoin!

Update on my post from Yesterday. Up more $ today than I make in a year Truck Driving. pic.twitter.com/vkme600mCI

— Jason Marquez (@jasnmrquez) January 3, 2025

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Never fear, for Bitcoin’s restless, meme-loving army has a new mission—and it’s as ambitious as it is bonkers. Our target? Flipping gold’s market cap on its antiquated, shiny head and sending Bitcoin hurtling toward a cool $1 million per coin. Because, let’s be honest, who needs gold when you’ve got digital treasure?

A Flashback to the Laser Eyes Phenomenon

Before we dive into our latest antics, let’s take a moment to tip our hats (or perhaps don our monocles) to the #LaserEyesTill100K campaign. Back in the halcyon days of 2021, a Bitcoin enthusiast named Chairforce—yes, that’s a real person, not a Transformer—had the brilliant idea to Photoshop laser beams onto Twitter avatars. Why? Because nothing screams "financial revolution" quite like looking like a superhero in a Marvel knockoff.

The movement was a hit. Politicians joined in. Celebrities too. Even your Uncle Geoff with his dodgy internet connection managed to slap some laser eyes on his profile pic. The campaign’s goal? To keep those lasers burning bright until Bitcoin hit $100K. And three years later, in December 2024, it finally happened. For the full backstory, you can read all about it in the excellent Bitcoin Magazine piece, "The Origins of Bitcoin Laser Eyes".

But now that Bitcoin is sitting pretty in the six-figure club, it’s time to retire the lasers (you can stop frightening the family cat now) and set our sights on a new frontier.

The New Mission: Flipping Gold

Ah, gold—the shiny, yellow relic that people have been hoarding for centuries. While it’s lovely for necklaces, teeth, and pirate treasure chests, it’s time for Bitcoin to knock it off its gilded pedestal. Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap is $2.018 trillion, a respectable 11.36% of gold’s $17.765 trillion. Not bad, but we’ve got bigger plans.

In 2024, Bitcoin’s market cap surpassed silver, which was a bit like overtaking your slower cousin in a three-legged race. But here’s the kicker: BlackRock, the financial behemoth, launched a Bitcoin ETF last year, and it’s already outperformed their Gold ETF. Yes, you read that right. The demand for Bitcoin is growing faster than a queue for free tea and biscuits.

The next step? 2025 could be the year Bitcoin flips gold’s market cap, finally proving to the world that digital trumps physical. And, of course, we need a campaign to match this monumental goal.

Introducing #PicFlipTillGoldFlip

Now, let’s talk about campaigns. After the roaring success of laser eyes, the Bitcoin community needed something fresh, bold, and devilishly simple. My first idea was #GoldGrillTill1Mill, where users would Photoshop gold teeth onto their profile pics. But then I remembered two things: 1) Not everyone has the graphic design skills of Picasso, and 2) Some of us still have nightmares about Kanye’s dental bling.

Then it hit me—KISS: Keep It Simple, Stupid. And so, the #PicFlipTillGoldFlip campaign was born. The idea is delightfully daft: flip your profile picture upside down. That’s it. No lasers, no gold teeth, no expensive software. Just rotate your image and voilà, you’re part of the movement.

#Bitcoin has hit $100K, but the journey isn’t over.

From laser eyes to upside-down pics, it’s time to turn the financial world on its head—literally.

Will you join me? - #PicFlipTillGoldFlip #FlipItForBitcoin pic.twitter.com/aI2wTwWonn

— Mark Mason | markmason.btc (@MarkMoneyMason) January 7, 2025

This symbolizes Bitcoin’s current position below gold’s market cap. The image is upside down because Bitcoin hasn’t flipped gold—yet. But when it does, we’ll flip those images right-side up faster than you can say “store of value.”

Will You Join the Movement?

Social media campaigns like this aren’t just about having a laugh (though, let’s face it, the laughs are a bonus). They create community, spread awareness, and remind everyone that Bitcoin’s potential is, quite literally, out of this world.

The laser eyes campaign rallied Bitcoiners from $50K to $100K in just three years. The question now is: how long will it take to flip gold? One year? Two? A decade? However long it takes, the momentum is with us. Bitcoin is no longer the scrappy underdog—it’s the digital heavyweight, poised to take the crown from the king of shiny rocks.

So, dear reader, will you flip your pic for Bitcoin? Will you take part in #PicFlipTillGoldFlip and join us on this absurdly exciting journey to $1 million? Or do you have an even better idea for a campaign? If so, speak up! The Bitcoin community is always up for a bit of mischief.

Until then, I’ll see you upside down. Cheers!

#PicFlipTillGoldFlip
#FlipItForBitcoin

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Last month at the New York Times DealBook Summit, political analyst and media personality Van Jones admitted that the Democrats made a fatal mistake in not only largely disregarding the crypto voter but in acting against them during the last election cycle and more broadly during President Biden’s time in office.

“50 million people bought some crypto — that’s a bet on [the] future,” said Jones.

“They’re trying to get to a better future. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren beating the hell out of crypto was not smart,” he added.

CNN host @VanJones68 says, “Democrats ran people out of the party on crypto. 50 million people bought crypto. It’s a bet on a better future” pic.twitter.com/Ee8NlutNK1

— Documenting ₿itcoin ???? (@DocumentingBTC) January 6, 2025

Jones is one of the first prominent Democrats to publicly admit post election that the Democrats should have invited those who hold bitcoin and crypto into the party instead of pushing them away.

The questions now are Will other well-known Democrats follow Jones's lead? and What would their policy proposals look like if they did?

The latter question is particularly important because while Democrats may begin to say they’re “pro-crypto,” the devil is in the details.

For example, when I interviewed former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D-NC), one of the few outspoken bitcoin and crypto proponents in the Democratic party last year, I asked him if he’d support the right for bitcoin and crypto owners to hold their private keys.

This was his response:

“In Congress, we've really focused on doing a few things before we get into the next level of stuff. It's about regulating the industry, FIT21, the digital assets market structure bill and stablecoins. We've gotten sidetracked with SAB121 for custodial banking.

Those are the things that I think we need to tackle first, and then we get into the next layer of stuff, and I'm really hopeful we're going to get those things done this Congress.”

The right to hold one’s private keys is the “first level of stuff” in my book, and his lack of a direct response to my question worried me, especially when juxtaposed with what Trump said on the matter at the Libertarian National Convention in May 2024:

“I will support the right to self-custody [for] the nation’s 50 million crypto holders.” -Donald J. Trump

So, if the Democrats are to start shifting their rhetoric when it comes to Bitcoin and crypto, they’re also going to need to come correct when it comes to policy proposals if they plan to win over the voters they lost in this previous election cycle come midterm elections.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

I really thought that we had seen the bottom in terms of Bitcoiners making irrational and ridiculous arguments against improvements to Bitcoin, in order to paint themselves as some kind of righteous underdog fighting against corruption and incompetence from the inside.

Boy was I wrong.

So, some things to explain first. With Lightning channels, you have to decide your fee-rate for a unilateral close transaction ahead of time. Because the actual UTXO is a multisig, both parties to the channel have to sign the transactions either side uses to close the channel unilaterally ahead of time. The entire security of Lightning is based on having these. If you ever needed to use one, say because your counterparty is being non-cooperative, you can’t exactly count on them to resign one at a higher fee-rate if you needed it.

This led to problems during unilateral fee closures. If fees were high and came down since you opened your channel, you pay money you didn’t need to. If fees were low and went up, you can’t guarantee that your channel closes in a timely manner. You can’t Replace-By-Fee(RBF) because your counterparty needs to sign, and you can’t use Child-Pays-For-Parent(CPFP) because all of your outputs are timelocked, so nothing spending them will be valid until after the first transaction actually confirms and multiple blocks pass.

Because of this, anchor outputs were created. They were special outputs that exist without timelocks for the sole purpose of being able to spend in a child transaction to fee-bump the Lightning close transaction. These added more capital inefficiency though, requiring a non-negligible amount of satoshis be used to create these outputs.

Enter ephemeral anchors, building on the v3 transaction relay and package relay (relaying transactions in the mempool as groups). The idea is to have a 0 value output spendable with OP_TRUE(meaning anyone can spend it). Transactions that have a fee-rate of 0, and include an ephemeral anchor, will be relayed in the mempool as long as there is a child transaction spending the ephemeral anchor output with an appropriate fee-rate.

This allows Lightning channels to sign unilateral closure transactions with no fees, and anyone who needs to use them can simply spend the ephemeral anchor output to set whatever fee-rate is required at the time. This greatly simplifies Lightning closure transactions, and removes capital inefficiencies of existing anchor outputs. An added bonus is that anyone can fee bump a transaction with an ephemeral anchor, not just the channel (or other contract) owners.

The ephemeral anchor never even creates the 0 value UTXO in the UTXO set, because it will only be relayed along with a transaction that instantly spends it in the same block.

So why is this a problem? Or an attack? I have no clue, it’s an amazing simplification that essentially any second layer protocol, or contract built on Bitcoin in general, that uses pre-signed transactions will benefit greatly from. It causes no bloat of the UTXO set, because as is in the name, the outputs used are ephemeral. They aren’t actually permanently created.

The only arguments I’ve seen are “spam!” Or “Core developers are removing the dust limit!” (A restriction on the minimum value transaction outputs must have to be relayed, and they aren’t removing it for anything but ephemeral anchors, which must be immediately spent by a child to be relayed).

I think we are at a point where we have to seriously consider when it is time to dismiss criticism or complaints surrounding technical subject matter in this space. Or where legitimate criticisms stop being that, and become irrational and illogical crusades against or for personalities instead of reasoned criticism. Because this backlash against ephemeral anchors is incontrovertibly the latter.

All rational criticism should be welcomed in an open source protocol like Bitcoin, but it's time to stop humoring irrational tribalism with no logical basis as if it is equivalent to legitimate criticism. It’s not, it’s purely a waste of time and a Denial of Service attack against the process of improving Bitcoin. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced he is officially resigning from his position in office and as the Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada — effective when the party chooses his successor.

Trudeau has faced massive criticism over the last few years due to his inability to solve the housing shortages, inflation, and other economic struggles the country is facing. He has also stated that he is fighting internal battles, and therefore cannot be the best option for the country in the upcoming 2025 Canadian federal election.

???? #BREAKING - JUSTIN TRUDEAU: "I intend to resign as [Liberal] Party leader, as Prime Minister [of Canada] after the party selects its next leader."

Replacement elections to happen in the near future.

"If I'm having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option." pic.twitter.com/HPAh6FJHlT

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) January 6, 2025

Trudeau, known for his anti-Bitcoin stance alongside his other poor economic policies, said in early 2023 that his political opponent and Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Pierre Poilievre, was not fit for leadership because he correctly told Canadians citizens to opt out of inflation by holding bitcoin. Trudeau cherry picked data from when Poilievre said that and used it as an attempt to make holding bitcoin seem like a bad decision, stating that Canadians would have lost half of their life savings if they had bought bitcoin.

If Trudeau had been intellectually honest and able to see the bigger picture, he would have also encouraged his citizens to accumulate bitcoin as well, because bitcoin’s price has increased about 375% since Trudeau tried to make a mockery of saving in bitcoin.

JUST IN: ???????? Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau officially to resign from office.

In 2023 he mocked his political opponent for telling people to buy #Bitcoin, saying "that's not responsible leadership." pic.twitter.com/0gjKIezPXC

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 6, 2025

Canada has their federal election coming up later this year, and they have the potential to elect the next Bitcoin world leader — Pierre Poilievre. Poilievre is a staunch Bitcoin advocate and has done the work to understand what money is. Here below is a great 10 minute speech by Poilievre on money, really showcasing his deep understanding of it. And here is another speech in which Poilievre says the “bottom line is we’re growing the money supply which causes inflation. We’re printing money to fund irresponsible government spending.”

???????? The pro-#Bitcoin new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada giving an excellent speech on “What is money?” ????

pic.twitter.com/QdVZZIumG1

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) September 11, 2022

Similar to how Trump visited PubKey in New York City to purchase burgers and drinks using the Bitcoin Lightning Network, Poilievre has also visited a local Bitcoin business to purchase food with Bitcoin. In 2023, he visited a Canadian restaurant accepting bitcoin as payment and paid in BTC for food, further showcasing his openness to embracing the asset and promoting the use of it as a medium of exchange and not just a store of value.

FUN FACT: Like Trump buying burgers with #Bitcoin, Canada's Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre also buys food with Bitcoin.

He is currently leading in the polls. Will Canada be the next country to adopt #Bitcoin?! ???????? pic.twitter.com/PMkB4J4BTx

— Nikolaus Hoffman (@NikolausHoff) January 6, 2025

Bitcoiners in Canada have a chance to vote for a Prime Minister who would have sound economic policies and promote the usage of Bitcoin. If this happens, they would join the ranks of the United States, El Salvador and other countries who have leaders embracing Bitcoin and the benefits of that. Canada’s election is slated to take place on or before October 20, 2025.

I personally think that Poilievre is the best choice for Canada this election, not only because of his pro-Bitcoin stance, but because of his economic policies, freedom-oriented mindset, and rational thinking. I hope to see Canada embrace Bitcoin, and solve their economic problems caused by Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada’s poor mismanagement of the economy by choosing new Conservative leadership and encouraging further use of Bitcoin in the country.

So Canadians, go out and vote for Poilievre this election. This is your shot to make history and embrace the future of finance with Bitcoin.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

???? NEW FREE CHART ALERT ????

Following the amazing feedback we received on our video series:

'Mathematically Predicting the BTC Peak'

We decided to recreate the data we used and provide it in a new and completely FREE indicator:

???? Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Prediction ????

This… pic.twitter.com/9DqRWGhhGr

— Bitcoin Magazine Pro (@BitcoinMagPro) January 6, 2025

Understanding the Pi Cycle Top Prediction Indicator

The Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart enhances the concept of its predecessor by projecting future potential crossover points of two key moving averages:

1. 111-day Moving Average (111DMA)
2. 350-day Moving Average multiplied by two (350DMA x2)

By calculating the rate of change of these two moving averages over the past 14 days, the tool extrapolates their trajectory into the future. This approach provides a predictive estimate of when these two averages will cross, signaling a potential market top.

Historically, the crossover of these moving averages has been closely associated with Bitcoin’s cycle tops. In fact, the original Pi Cycle Top indicator successfully identified Bitcoin’s previous cycle peaks to within three days, both before and after its creation.

Implications for Market Behavior

When the 111DMA approaches the 350DMA x2, it suggests that Bitcoin’s price may be rising unsustainably, often reflecting heightened speculative fervor. A crossover typically signals the end of a bull market, followed by a price correction or bear market.

For professional investors, this tool is invaluable as a risk management mechanism. By identifying periods when market conditions might be overheating, it allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure to Bitcoin and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Key Prediction: September 17, 2025

The current projection estimates that the moving averages will cross on September 17, 2025. This date represents a potential market top, offering investors a timeline to monitor and reassess their positions as market dynamics evolve. Users can view this projection in detail by hovering over the chart on the Bitcoin Magazine Pro platform.

Origins and Related Tools

The Pi Cycle Top Prediction indicator was conceptualized by Matt Crosby, Lead Analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro. It builds on the original Pi Cycle Top indicator, created by Philip Swift, Managing Director of Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Swift’s Pi Cycle Top has become a trusted resource among Bitcoin analysts and investors for its historical accuracy in identifying market peaks.

Investors interested in a deeper exploration of market cycles can also refer to:

• The Original Pi Cycle Top Indicator: View the chart
• The Pi Cycle Top and Bottom Indicator: View the chart

Video Explainer and Educational Resources

For a comprehensive explanation of the Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart, investors can watch a detailed video by Matt Crosby, available here. This video provides an overview of the methodology, practical applications, and historical context for this predictive tool.

Why This Matters for Professional Investors

In a market as dynamic and unpredictable as Bitcoin, professional investors require sophisticated tools to anticipate and respond to significant market shifts. The Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart offers:

• Data-Driven Insights: By leveraging historical data and predictive modeling, the chart delivers actionable insights for portfolio management.
• Timing Precision: The ability to estimate cycle tops with a high degree of accuracy enhances strategic decision-making.
• Risk Mitigation: Early warning signals of market overheating empower investors to protect their portfolios from potential downside risks.

As Bitcoin matures into an asset class increasingly adopted by institutional investors, tools like the Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart become essential for understanding and navigating its unique market cycles. By integrating this chart into their analytical toolkit, investors can deepen their insights and improve their long-term investment outcomes.

To explore live data and stay informed on the latest analysis, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Last night, President-elect Donald Trump’s son, Eric Trump, posted a photo of himself at Mar-a-Lago with MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor with the caption, “Two friends, one passion: Bitcoin.”

This is so unbelievably bullish — let me explain.

For the last four years, under the Biden-Harris administration with total Democrat control, the U.S. government did their best to terrorize this industry and attack us. The overwhelming majority of the Democrat party did not support Bitcoin and followed Elizabeth Warren’s lead on demonizing the industry and its participants. They weaponized the justice system to arrest Bitcoiners, tried to tax our unrealized gains, stopped pro-Bitcoin legislation from being signed into law, de-banked industry participants via Operation Chokepoint 2.0, refused to support Bitcoin in any meaningful way, and so much more.

They were truly anti-Bitcoin. If Kamala Harris had won the presidential election, their reign of terror on Bitcoin would have continued for at least four more years. But now, the Democrats' war on Bitcoin in America is finally coming to an end. And a new administration is coming in — and they love Bitcoin.

Donald Trump is not even officially in office yet, and his family is already inviting Michael Saylor to his estate in Mar-a-Lago to discuss Bitcoin further. This isn’t the first time he’s done something like this either, like in 2024 when Trump invited American Bitcoin mining giants there to learn more about the industry and what he needs to do to best support them.

It is important to note that just two weeks ago, Saylor said on Bloomberg that he would be open to advising Donald Trump on Bitcoin. And now with him being at Mar-a-Lago, I think it is safe to speculate that something big might be brewing here.

The Trumps understand Bitcoin and continue to show their support for the asset and industry. Eric Trump recently gave a great speech at the Bitcoin MENA Conference in Abu Dhabi, explaining the characteristics that make Bitcoin an invaluable asset while also sharing his family’s personal experience being de-banked, and how Bitcoin protects individuals from being cancelled. Donald Trump Jr. made an appearance at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in, along with his father, and showed lots of support for this asset and industry.

Donald Trump has committed to releasing Bitcoiners (Ross Ulbricht) from prison, sign pro-Bitcoin legislation into law, work with the industry to help us thrive, end Operation Chokepoint 2.0, appointed an official Crypto Czar, said “Bitcoin and crypto will skyrocket like never before” under his administration, and so much more.

Even if you’re not a fan of Trump, you have to acknowledge and give him and his family credit for the good work they’re doing to make a regulatory friendly environment for this industry to thrive in. Imagine all this industry can accomplish over the next four years being supported by the President, allowing us the room to innovate and build without fear of being harassed and demonized by our own government. I would say the sky is the limit but it’s even better than that.

Four years is a long time, especially in this industry. Lots can happen during that time and I am incredibly bullish on the future of Bitcoin in America under this incoming Trump administration.

Michael Saylor: "Bitcoin is on the menu at Mar-a-Lago."

AMERICA IS EMBRACING #BITCOIN LIKE NEVER BEFORE ???????? pic.twitter.com/7c2NJG7Kzd

— Nikolaus Hoffman (@NikolausHoff) January 3, 2025

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Bitcoin, you are 16 years old now, well into your teenage years. These are usually the years during which, for many people without even being aware of it consciously, one usually makes the decisions that shape the course of the rest of their life. It’s incredibly rare that someone gets a “redo” to wind back choices that lock them into a certain path in life.

I fear you, or rather Bitcoiners, are in the process of making one of those monumental mistakes that will have severe consequences for the rest of its existence.

We are seeing unprecedented growth at this time. The price is near all time highs, finally breaking 100k, major nations are debating the prospect of creating strategic reserves of bitcoin, we are hitting escape velocity. In the wake of that people have become totally dependent on the narrative that we already won.

They can’t get to sleep at night without telling themselves “we have already won.”

Meanwhile Bitcoin is totally unscalable. If the world realizes tomorrow they need bitcoin, everyone will be stuck custodying their coins with Coinbase or JP Morgan, because the system does not scale enough for everyone to hold their own coins. All of those people will be surveiled, will have no freedom, their coins can be arbitrarily seized at any moment by government order. They won’t be able to start a business or build anything innovative, they won’t be able to spend their money how they wish, without government permission.

“Oh well sovereignty isn’t for everyone, it’s a responsibility. They wouldn’t have wanted it anyway.” Those few “elites” won’t have a much better situation either. They might not be able to seize a self custodial user’s coins as easily as a custodial user’s, but they don’t have to. They can just seize you. They can track you, surveil you everywhere, and when they get an inkling of you trying to do something of which they disapprove, off to jail you go. That will hang over the head of anyone trying to innovate or build in a way that is not government approved.

Stablecoins are even actively facilitating new roads of demand for US Treasuries as our enemies have begun scaling back their purchasing of them. The things Bitcoin has birthed in this ecosystem, out of necessity to help the market for bitcoin itself to survive I might add, are actively helping maintain the dollar. They are doing the opposite of the long held promise of unseating the dollar.

That’s the path that we are on. One where Bitcoin enables government surveillance and controls. Where it actually helps those things. Why are we on that path? Bitcoin doesn’t scale far enough, and there are no incentive compatible and sustainable tools for privacy (i.e. that are simple enough and not cost prohibitive to disincentivize people not actively seeking it for privacy’s sake).

Right now the path we are on is people willing to just roll over, give up on any future of Bitcoin creating formative change, and do what the government wants will get rich. Beyond that, nothing much will fundamentally change as far as people’s financial lives and their relationship with the government. We need to acknowledge these problems, and actually support solutions to lessen their severity, not simply chant ourselves to sleep with “Bitcoin has already won.”

Bitcoin has the potential to bring about so much positive change in the world, but it won’t if we just get overconfident, cocky, and apathetic about solving problems we would rather pretend don’t exist. Listening exclusively to the arrogance of youth very rarely goes well for the relevant party.

Bitcoin is too important to mess up making the same kinds of impetuous mistakes teenagers do. So don’t. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

MVRV Z-Score: Plenty of Upside Potential

The MVRV Z-Score measures the ratio between Bitcoin's realized price (the average acquisition price of all BTC on the network) and its market cap. Standardizing this ratio for volatility gives us the Z-Score, which historically provides a clear picture of market cycles.

View Live Chart ????

Currently, the MVRV Z-Score suggests we still have significant upside potential. While previous cycles have seen the Z-Score reach values above 7, I believe anything above 6 indicates overextension, prompting a closer look at other metrics to identify a market peak. Presently, we’re hovering at levels comparable to May 2017—when Bitcoin was valued at only a few thousand dollars. Given the historical context, there’s room for multiple hundreds of percent in potential gains from current levels.

The Pi Cycle Oscillator: Bullish Momentum Resumes

Another essential metric is the Pi Cycle Top and Bottom indicator, which tracks the 111-day and 350-day moving averages (the latter multiplied by 2). Historically, when these averages cross, it often signals a Bitcoin price peak within days.

View Live Chart ????

The distance between these two moving averages has started to trend upward again, suggesting renewed bullish momentum. While 2024 saw periods of sideways consolidation, the breakout we’re seeing now indicates that Bitcoin is entering a stronger growth phase, potentially lasting several months.

The Exponential Phase of the Cycle

Looking at Bitcoin’s historical price action, cycles often feature a "post-halving cooldown" lasting 6–12 months before entering an exponential growth phase. Based on previous cycles, we’re nearing this breakout point. While diminishing returns are expected compared to earlier cycles, we could still see substantial gains.

View Live Chart ????

For context, breaking the previous all-time high of $20,000 in the 2020 cycle led to a peak near $70,000—a 3.5x increase. If we see even a conservative 2x or 3x from the last peak of $70,000, Bitcoin could realistically reach $140,000–$210,000 in this cycle.

Macro Factors Supporting BTC in 2025

Despite headwinds in 2024, Bitcoin performed strongly, even in the face of a strengthening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY move inversely, so any reversal in the DXY’s strength could further fuel Bitcoin’s upside.

View Live Chart ????

Other macroeconomic indicators, such as high-yield credit cycles and the global M2 money supply, suggest improving conditions for Bitcoin. The contraction in the money supply seen in 2024 is expected to reverse in 2025, setting the stage for an even more favorable environment.

Cycle Master Chart: A Long Way to Go

The Bitcoin Cycle Master Chart, which aggregates multiple on-chain valuation metrics, shows that Bitcoin still has considerable room to grow before reaching overvaluation. The upper boundary, currently around $190,000, continues to rise, reinforcing the outlook for sustained upward momentum.

View Live Chart ????

Conclusion

Currently, almost all data points are aligned for a bullish 2025. As always, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, however the data strongly suggests that Bitcoin’s best days may still lie ahead, even after an incredibly positive 2024.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin 2025 - A Data Driven Outlook

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Boreal was awarded $1 million in seed capital as well as access to Samara’s institutional-grade infrastructure to help manage its fund.

Boreal stood out because of its trading strategy, which utilizes various DeFi protocols to generate yield on top of US dollars, bitcoin and ether.

“Even when things are super bearish, there's always a way to generate returns in DeFi,” said Boreal’s founder Evan Morris, who has been in the crypto space since 2016 and who worked in traditional finance prior to that.

“I began in this space four years ago managing outside money with two friends and then ended up joining a larger firm as a portfolio manager where I ran a DeFi strategy for a few years. More recently, I've launched Boreal, and now, with the help of Samara, we can really take things to the next level,” he added.

Adil Abdulali, Chief Investment Officer at Samara Alpha Management and one of the judges in the competition, commented on why Samara is excited to partner with Boreal.

“Evan is somebody who has a very good track record of work and the right risk framework for this type of strategy,” he said. “He has trading maturity, and since crypto is a young market, somebody with several years of experience in DeFi is rare.”

Abdulali also shared details on how Samara plans to support Morris.

“We thought if there's a way to quickly get him off the ground with all the infrastructure like admin, auditing, accounting, subscription docs, a bank account, BitGo accounts, etc. — all of which we have — then let’s do it,” he said.

DeFi on Bitcoin

Moving forward, Morris sees bitcoin playing a much bigger role in the DeFi space.

“With bitcoin coming onto the DeFi scene, we're able to do some of the same things that we were able to do with stablecoins over the past few years,” he said.

“DeFi 1.0 was very USDC- and Tether-based, but the future of DeFi is going to involve different types of wrapped bitcoin and bitcoin derivatives. And we're happy to provide liquidity.”

Abdulali also feels that bitcoin will play a bigger role in DeFi, and his firm is well-positioned to help Boreal capitalize on this.

“Bitcoin is not just like all other coins — it’s some of the best collateral out there,” he said.

“We use bitcoin in our bitcoin-denominated fund, which we started over a year ago and which employs essentially the same type of strategies that our dollar-denominated market-neutral fund does. However, the fund transacts entirely in bitcoin,” he added.

“The idea is to use bitcoin in these new DeFi protocols like Babylon in market-making strategies instead of putting collateral like USDC or USDT on an exchange.”

The Future of DeFi

Morris explained that DeFi has become much more advanced than it was four years ago, when it first came on the scene as a sector of crypto.

“There are just so many more tools to get alerts on smart contracts and evaluate smart contract security,” he said.

“Cybersecurity and wallet technology is so much better, as well. This enables institutional-grade DeFi products,” he added.

And Abdulali wants to see Boreal take advantage of this institutional-grade DeFi before the institutions arrive.

“All this new institutional capital is not even going to touch DeFi for a while,” explained Abdulali. “They've hardly gotten into bitcoin, so it's going to be a long time before the DeFi landscape becomes saturated and there's too much capital,” he added.

“There are going to be some juicy returns for some of us that are willing to play in the space now.”

Let me be honest—becoming a wholecoiner is one of the smartest moves you can make, but it’s also becoming ridiculously hard. I remember when I first got into bitcoin back in 2016. The price was around $400-$500, and owning one full bitcoin felt totally doable.

Now? It’s a completely different story.

Bitcoin is sitting near $100,000, and owning even half a bitcoin feels out of reach for most people. Let’s put this into perspective: the average savings for someone under 35 in the U.S. is just $20,540. That’s not even 25% of what it costs to buy 1 BTC today. Most of these millennials and zoomers can only dream of ever owning a whole bitcoin—it’s just not realistic for the average person anymore.

And here’s the part that really blows my mind: there are only about 1 million bitcoin addresses that hold more than 1 BTC. Even if we assume every single one of those addresses belongs to a different person (which isn’t true), that’s just 0.0125% of the global population. Think about it—being a wholecoiner already puts you in one of the most exclusive clubs in the world.

Now, let’s compare that to fiat millionaires. There are about 58 million millionaires worldwide. And here’s the kicker: there are only 21 million bitcoin in total. Even if every single millionaire on the planet wanted to own one bitcoin, they couldn’t. There’s just not enough bitcoin to go around. That’s why being a wholecoiner is better than being a fiat millionaire. Fiat is infinite—anyone can become a millionaire in a system where money is endlessly printed. But bitcoin? It’s hard-capped. Scarce.

If you’re a millionaire and you don’t own at least 1 bitcoin yet, wake up. The race is on, and most millionaires are going to miss out. And if you’re already a wholecoiner? Congratulations. You’re part of the 0.0125% who will ever own this much bitcoin.

It might not feel like a big deal now, but in 20 or 30 years, you’ll look back and realize how rare and special it is. As Tuur Demeester said: “These are the last months that 1 BTC is accessible to the upper middle class.” That quote stuck with me because it’s true. The window is closing.

If you’re in the race, don’t stop. And if you’re on the sidelines, it’s time to get moving—because bitcoin’s scarcity is going to leave a lot of people behind.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

A week ago, CoinTelegraph published a “women who kicked ass in crypto” piece in which only one non-American or non-European woman (Maya Parbhoe) was mentioned.

Because I feel that what’s happening with Bitcoin in Africa, Latin America, The Middle East and Southeast Asia — regions where bitcoin is more often used as a currency and a money of last resort — is far more exciting than what’s happening in the United States and Europe, I’m here tell you about some ladies in the Bitcoin space from these regions who kicked ass in 2024.

Farida Bemba Nabourema — Nabourema is a long-time activist and human rights defender, originally from Togo. She’s also the primary organizer for the African Bitcoin Conference, which, for the last three years, has provided Africans with an incredible opportunity to present to and network with Bitcoiners from around the globe.

Reyna Chicas — Chicas is a Salvadoran was promoted to Director of Education for Mi Primer Bitcoin this year, and she also sits on the organization’s board of directors. Her journey in Bitcoin started just two years ago when she went to the Adopting Bitcoin conference in El Salvador as an attendee.

Roya Mahboob — Mahboob is one of Afghanistan’s first female tech CEOs. She also founded the Digital Citizen Fund, a non-profit aimed at improving technological literacy of Afghan women. This year, she’s continued in her efforts to create IT centers for girls in high schools across Afghanistan and also bring her education model to schools in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Nepal.

Dea Rezkitha — Rezkitha is the Community Master for Southeast Asia for Fedi and co-founder of the Indonesian Bitcoin Community and the Indonesia Bitcoin Conference. Aside from keeping up with her duties for Fedi this year, Rezkitha toured the world speaking about her work at events like the Oslo Freedom Forum and Bitcoin 2024.

Lorraine Marcel — Marcel, based in Kenya, is the founder of Bitcoin Dada, a virtual Bitcoin education platform and sisterhood for African women. She was also awarded the Most Impactful African Bitcoiner of 2024 award by the African Bitcoiners group.

Kenyan Lorraine Marcel (@marcelorraine) is our Most Impactful African Bitcoiner of 2024!

Through @btc_dada and @DadaDevs she empowers leaders like @waithiraah, @LindaKariu54810, @noelynesumba and many others, creating a ripple effect which is changing Africa forever.
More???? pic.twitter.com/W84gicWVs1

— African Bitcoiners ⚡ (@afribitcoiners) December 11, 2024

Isabella Santos — Santos is a co-founder of the Mexican Bitcoin community BTC Isla, based in Isla Mujeres as well as a co-founder of the Bitcoin media outlet Get Based (which recently released a killer documentary entitled “How The Federal Reserve Secretly Enslaved The World”). Beyond that, she continued to tour the globe this year as the host of Bitcoin Backstage, bringing you some juicy takes from backstage at the world’s biggest Bitcoin conferences.

Noelyne Sumba — Sumba, based in Kenya, oversees “orange-pilling operations” for Machankura, a Bitcoin Lightning wallet that can be used on feature phones. Also, in 2024, Saifedean Ammous’ classic The Bitcoin Standard was published in Swahili and Abdi thanks to Sumba’s help in translating the text.

Hadiya Masieh — Masieh is based in London but was born to Mauritian and Ugandan parents. She’s the founder of the Groundswell Project, an organization that works to foster peace and empathy amongst diverse communities. She gave a talk at the “Oslo Freedom Forum” this year entitled “How Bitcoin Can Fund Counter-Terrorism”, in which she highlighted how she’s taught Somali women how to use bitcoin for political fundraising to help support female candidates in the country.

Janet Maingi — Maingi, based in Kenya, is a co-founder of Gridless Compute, a company that not only mined bitcoin in Africa profitably this past year but also helped bring electrification to rural regions of the continent.

Mary Imasuen — Imasuen, who is of Nigerian and Filipino descent and based in Nigeria, is the Global Marketing Manager for Fedi and a self-described “bitcoin-only gamer” who often speaks in support of THNDR Games. While Imasuen wasn’t touring the world discussing her work in 2024, you could hear from her as a podcast guest or on a gaming stream.

Carol Souza and Kaká Furlan — These two Brazilian women run Area Bitcoin, an online Bitcoin school that provides learners with easily-digestible Bitcoin content.

Honorable mentions: Renata Rodrigues (Head of Marketing and Community at Fedi, originally from Brazil), Lorena Ortiz (Latin America Community Master at Fedi, based in Mexico), Edith Mpumwire (Ugandan Community Manager for Bitcoin Dada and supporter of Bitcoin Kampala), Sabina Gitau (co-founder of Tando, based in Kenya), Efrat Fenigson (host of the “You’re The Voice” podcast, based in Israel)

And I’m going to give a quick shout out to some bad ass ladies who crushed it this year from Europe, the U.S. or elsewhere: Caitlin Long (the US-based CEO of Custodia Bank started a lawsuit against the U.S. Federal Reserve), Susie Violet Ward (the UK-based Bitcoin journalist and CEO of Bitcoin Policy U.K. wrote extensively about the dangers of over-regulating the Bitcoin industry in the U.K. and Europe this year), Stacy Herbert (the Director of El Salvador's National Bitcoin Office (ONBTC), who greatly furthered the Bitcoin adoption and education efforts throughout El Salvador), Lyudmyla Kozlovska (the Ukrainian activist worked to help preserve privacy in Bitcoin transactions through her organization, the Open Dialogue Foundation), Anna Chekovich (the Russian Bitcoin advocate from Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation also joined the Human Rights Foundation's Financial Freedom team), Anita Posch (the founder of Bitcoin for Fairness who has traveled throughout the world, particularly in Africa, teaching people how to use Bitcoin), Charlene Fadirepo (who published a book on how Bitcoin is changing Africa), Umi Miyahara (the Japanese-American Business Development Lead at Breez helped facilitate many new partnerships for Breez), Whitney Webb (journalist and founder of Unlimited Hangout, whose extensive pieces provided sometimes unpleasant insights into certain realities in the Bitcoin space), DJ Valerie B Love (the US-based creative launched an exceptional virtual conference), NiftyNei (the technical-minded developer launched the Base58 education platform), Gloria Zhao (the Bitcoin core dev did an excellent job in distilling how Bitcoin works), Ella Hough (this student helped Cornell University launch its first independent Bitcoin-focused study program), Ayelen Osorio (the writer, based in Canada, launched the Human Rights Foundation's Financial Freedom Report newsletter) and L0la L33tz (the independent journalist did an incredible work in covering privacy as it pertains to Bitcoin and crypto for her publication The Rage).

I know there are an innumerable number of women in the Bitcoin space who neither I nor CoinTelegraph acknowledged.

To those women, I apologize for not being able to fit you into this piece, but I thank you for your work and contributions to the Bitcoin space.

To learn about more kick-ass women in the Bitcoin space, check out Access Tribe's "Women in Bitcoin" group.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Bitcoin is fiat. Now go ahead, take the time you need to get it out of your system. Breath deeply. Blood pressure still up? Okay, let’s try this then.

What does fiat mean? An arbitrary order or decree. Fiat currencies are given value by the authority of governments. They have value because the State decides they have value, and will accept them in payment of taxes. So how is Bitcoin fiat?

A king waives his hand and gives fiat value. But there is no King of Bitcoin. Right? Wrong. It’s us.

We collectively give value to Bitcoin through our decision to use it. We bring it into existence through our collective arbitrary decision. Despite all the memes and descriptions of Bitcoin as digital gold, it is by no means a commodity. Bitcoin has no distinct use-value and exchange-value. It is not a physical raw material that can be converted into something else. It’s a database that sits on your computer. And mine. And everyone else's.

The only reason Bitcoin is even a coherent singular thing in the first place is because of

everyone’s arbitrary decision to use the same rules to validate changes to its database. Without that, Bitcoin would just be innumerate copies of conflicting databases in different states all over the world. There wouldn’t be a Bitcoin, and therefore it could not have any value.

Its use-value is its exchange-value. They are two sides of the same coin, brought into existence purely through a collective fiat decree.

Bitcoin might be hard money, it might be finite in supply, it might be all these things with potential to change economic incentives globally. But it is also fiat. Every property it has, everything it is, exists purely because of our collective and arbitrary decision to make it exist.

Bitcoin is the world’s first stateless fiat. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

As we look forward to 2025, let’s take time to recognize the efforts and events in Ethiopia from the year 2024. These highlights can serve as a blueprint for how other energy-potential rich nations, even those too small or timid to challenge historical assertions about money, can also join in this race for energy and add-value to the bitcoin network.

First Quarter

• December 13, 2023, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued an Accounting Standards Update that addresses the accounting for and disclosure of “crypto” assets. Google Developers Group Addis (GDG Addis) invited Kal Kassa of BitcoinBirr and Dr. Nemo Semret of QRB Labs to speak at DevFest’23.
• RT published news of Russian investors setting up bitcoin mining facilities in Ethiopia. Shega features QRB Labs along with a Bloomberg Article on Chinese investors also working in bitcoin mining.
• February 12, 2024, BBC News Day Live interviewed Kal Kassa about bitcoin mining in Ethiopia. Then on February 21, 2024, Addis Standard published revenue figures of USD 2 million earned by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) from bitcoin miners. Within the year we will see this sales figure grow significant multiples.
• As the first signs of return in the bitcoin mining industry were reported, within days of each other, Bitcoin Magazine published 5 Ways Bitcoin Mining Benefits Ethiopia, then The Economist published Why Africa is Crypto’s Next Frontier and finally Addis Standard published From Shadows to Spotlight: Why Ethiopia Became Latest scene for Cryptocurrency Rush. In the first quarter of this year CNBC’s MacKenzie Sigalos also visited Addis Ababa to learn about this new industry.

Second Quarter

• Dr. Nemo Semret of QRB Labs published Bitcoin Mining in Ethiopia; the good, the bad and the ugly ahead of his interview with Hashrate Up Podcast and Gugut Podcast to talk about experiences building his facility and recent developments in the energy sector.
• May 3, 2024, Bloomberg’s Next Africa Podcast host Jennifer Zabasajja spoke with reporter Fasika Tadesse in a segment titled Ethiopia: An African Paradise For Crypto Miners?
• And on May 23, 2024, Addis Standard published revenue figures of USD 10.1 million earned by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) from bitcoin miners.

Third Quarter

• Blink publishes Bitcoin Mining in Africa: All Roads Lead to Ethiopia.
• August 25, 2024, Addis Standard published revenue figures of USD 27 million earned by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) from bitcoin miners.
• The Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed announces the Private Key Infrastructure (PKI) initiative in partnership with the Information Network Security Administration (INSA) to support local offices with cryptographic messaging and private-key related issues.
• BitCluster shared photos of its facilities in Ethiopia after deploying 12,000 bitcoin mining machines. In the third quarter of 2024 we also saw the eCrypto GitHub page publish an Amharic translation of the bitcoin whitepaper.

Fourth Quarter

• DINK TV and Genet Shiberu interview West Data Group in Bole Lemi for a tour of an operational 30 MW bitcoin mining facility.
• Ethan Vera of Luxor and Kal Kassa of BitcoinBirr joined The Mining Pod with Will Foxley to talk about Ethiopia’s Bitcoin Mining Boom.
• In the fourth quarter of 2024 we also learned that BitFuFu (NASDAQ: FUFU) was to acquire a 80-MW Bitcoin mining facility in Ethiopia. A few weeks later, Morningstar’s Newswire published BIT Mining Limited (NYSE: BTCM) completed the first phase of acquisition in Ethiopia for a deal that includes USD 2.265 million in cash and USD 12.015 million in shares.
• October 3rd, 2024, the Green Africa Mining Alliance (GAMA) hosted the Africa Bitcoin Mining Summit (ABMS ‘24) at Kuriftu Resort in Entoto Park, Addis Ababa.
• November 4, 2024, Fred Harter of The Africa Report published revenue figures of USD 55 million earned by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) from bitcoin miners. Forecasts for next year’s revenue from bitcoin miners stands at USD 123 million.
• November 5, 2024, The Bitcoin Summit ‘24 was hosted by BitcoinBirr at Sheraton Hotel in Addis Ababa. The event’s leading sponsor, West Data Group, announced news of a 20 MW facility in Wolaita Sodo breaking ground.
• Business correspondent Charles Gitonga of the BBC Africa interviews Kal Kassa on the Focus on Africa Podcast titled Why is Ethiopia a Major Hub for Bitcoin Mining? Addis Insight shared its article on the subject titled From Hydroelectric Power to Bitcoin: Ethiopia’s Rise as a Mining Hub.
• November 29, 2024, Ato Henok Assefa published How Bitcoin Mining Can Help Achieve Universal Electrification in Africa. That same week Henok Assefa joined the board of the state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE). And days later we learned that Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) will be under the new ownership of the Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH).
• Closing out the year, on December 5, 2024, the “Bitcoin” Telegram channel posts that 2.5% of the global Bitcoin hashrate now comes out of Ethiopia and that this number is poised to double in the next year.

Ethiopia’s next objective, if it's to be supported by the various market actors and individuals involved, will be to contribute 1 GW of energy into the Bitcoin network.

The future of Bitcoin mining in Ethiopia depends on how the Ethiopian government will treat the industry. Since the industry is sensitive to energy, government offices should focus on electricity production, distribution, stability, immutability of commercial contract terms, clear customs procedures, and transparent tax laws. As I work with brilliant bitcoiners around the world, I am optimistic we will reach these goals. Stay humble, stack sats and have a beautiful new year!

This is a guest post by Kal Kassa. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Founders: Francisco Chavarria (CEO) and Carlos Chida (CTO)

Date Founded: March 2023

Location of Headquarters: Austin, TX

Number of Employees: Four full time; one part time

Website: https://www.yopaki.com/

Public or Private? Private

In 2021, Francisco Chavarria stood in the audience at Bitcoin 2021 and watched as Strike CEO Jack Mallers passionately delivered his now famous keynote speech during which he revealed that El Salvador planned to make bitcoin legal tender.

That moment sparked something within Chavarria.

“It was unlike anything I’d experienced in my professional career,” Chavarria told Bitcoin Magazine.

“I knew I had to do something in the Bitcoin space after that. It was the seed,” he added.

First-forward ahead two years, and Chavarria found himself putting his career as a Software as a Service (SaaS) consultant on hold to draw up the blueprints for Yopaki, a neobank and investment app with a Bitcoin-focus, aimed at serving the people of his home country, Mexico. (Users outside of Mexico can also use Yopaki’s non-custodial Lighting wallet.)

Since then, he and his co-founder, Carlos Chida, have been hard at work bringing Yopaki to life, including taking part in Wolf’s Bitcoin Accelerator program in efforts to make Yopaki as cutting-edge and dynamic as possible.

But before getting to that part of the story, let’s start with the cultural origin of the platform’s name.

What’s In A Name?

“The name Yopaki comes from the ancient language Nahuatl, the language spoken by the Aztecs,” explained Chavarria.

“The Aztecs lived in the center region of what today is Mexico, and they're the ones responsible for some of the biggest pyramids in all of Latin America. The center of this historical place is called Teotihuacán, ‘the place of the gods,’” he added.

“The name itself, if I were to translate it into English, most closely means “the pursuit of happiness.’”

Judging by the name alone, it’s clear that Chavarria views Yopaki as more than just another business endeavor — he wants it to have a profound impact on those who use it.

And he’ll need the app to have such an impact if he and his team are to succeed in their mission: to turn every Mexican into a Bitcoiner.

2025 Dream Predictions for Bitcoin in Mexico ????????????‍????️

1. Bitcoin adoption in Mexico surges.

2. Mexican Bitcoin startups attract global investors. With El Salvador’s influence, Mexico becomes the Latin American leader for Bitcoin innovation.

3. Peso-Bitcoin integration deepens.…

— Francisco Chavarria (@FranciscoBTC) December 31, 2024

Bitcoin In The Mexican Context

When Bitcoin is brought up in the context of Latin America and other developing regions, it’s often referenced as a tool to “bank the unbanked.”

However, Mexico’s banking system is “quite advanced,” according to Chavarria.

“The infrastructure has been built for people to have access to banking,” he explained.

“It may not be the same banking that we have in the U.S. (where Chavarria currently resides), but, for example, in Mexico, there are stores like 7/11s called OXXOs, and they’re everywhere. Any person can walk into an OXXO with an ID, and within 20 minutes, they can walk out with a Visa card and an app,” he added.

“It’s not exactly a bank, but it provides access to payment rails,” he added.

Chavarria went on to share that these Visa cards charge high fees, though.

“They’re very predatory in that sense,” he said.

So, Yopaki provides its Mexican users with access to three different monetary accounts: a Mexican peso account, a U.S. dollar account and a (non-custodial) bitcoin Lightning wallet. Each of these accounts lets their users transact at lower rates than said Visa cards. (In 2025, Yopaki will also enable its Mexican users to buy stocks, ETFs and other securities, as well.)

By offering a bitcoin wallet alongside accounts for traditional currencies, Chavarria hopes to legitimize bitcoin in the eyes of its users. However, he also feels that Yopaki has some work to do as far as helping Mexicans to get comfortable using bitcoin, which is why he and his team are doing what they can to make the process enjoyable.

Making Bitcoin Fun With Lotería

Lotería is a favorite pastime of the Mexican people. It’s comparable to Bingo but with images instead of numbers.

Chavarria and the Yopaki team included it into the app with a Bitcoin slant — concepts and characters like the Lightning Network and Max Keiser appear in the Yopaki version of the game.

“When it comes to Mexico, people think tequila, tacos, mariachi, and Lotería,” said Chavarria.

“There’s no negative connotation to the game. Because of this, the feedback we've received over the last couple of months has been, ‘Man, I didn't realize that Bitcoin was fun,’” he added.

Users earn sats as they play Lotería within the app. When they’ve earned 1,000 sats or more, they can learn through the app how to transfer those sats from Yopaki’s custody into their own, all within the Yopaki app.

Yopaki teamed up with Breez to bring its users a non-custodial Lightning wallet that doesn’t require its users to to deal with the hassle of Lightning channel management.

Yopaki + Breez

“One of the main reasons we decided to go with Breez is that we knew about their implementation of the Nodeless SDK through Liquid before it was public,” said Chavarria.

“We know channel management is a fundamental roadblock for a lot of people in using an application like this. The second you introduce roadblocks the experience becomes scary. It’s just too much,” he added.

“So, in offering a product in which users can do an immediate transaction, that magic that we've all had as Bitcoiners can be brought to the masses.”

Chavarria went on to share that Yopaki’s Lightning wallet is so easy to use that even his mother-in-law is now using (and enjoying) the product.

He’s excited to bring such a product to the Mexican market, because, as he put it, Mexicans “have been rugged” by custodial solutions in the past.

“It’s important that we let users know that we don’t hold their funds,” said Chavarria.

Prioritizing Bitcoin Education

Not only does the Yopaki team encourage and prioritize self-sovereignty, but it also educates its users about Bitcoin, as it doesn’t underestimate their curiosity and ability to learn.

“We have curated content including lessons on broad topics like ‘What is money?’ — not just Bitcoin, but money,” explained Chavarria.

“They're micro lessons that take anywhere from one to two minutes to complete. At the end of the day, it's about creating a curiosity that I feel and I think a lot of us feel the legacy system has not really cared about,” he added.

The educational component within the app also sets it apart from its competitors in the region.

“Bitso is the largest player not just in Mexico but all of Latin America, and we have a lot of respect for what they've done, but they have turned into a casino with tokens and NFTs and all of that,” shared Chavarria. “We believe they have really underestimated the curiosity of their users and just triggered the degenerate gambling addiction side of things instead.”

Guidance From Wolf

Given how cool, calm and collected Chavarria was when I spoke with him, I got the impression that the now fleshed out vision for Yopaki came to him with relative ease, maybe even in a flash of light.

But he told me otherwise.

Apparently, he and Chida’s experience at Wolf’s Bitcoin startup incubator pushed them out of their comfort zone and into a state of mind that helped them to make Yopaki as unique as it is.

“It was one of the most important and meaningful experiences we could have gone through,” said Chavarria of his time at Wolf. “The type of feedback we received and the type of strategy sessions we had were, to say it nicely, brutal in a good way.”

Chavarria explained how he and Chida did, in fact, enter the Wolf program thinking they’d already crafted a solid vision for Yopaki, but that the guidance they received in the program is what pushed them to create many of the features that differentiate the apps for others like it.

“Having people like Kelly Brewster (Wolf’s CEO), who has years of experience at Goldman Sachs, and Ross Stevens (Wolf’s founder) really sit down and ask the tough questions and push you to the limit was powerful,” said Chavarria. “They made us really consider ‘Do you understand that what you're doing is difficult?’ and made us articulate how we were going to execute our plan.”

The Year Ahead

As mentioned, Yopaki will enable its Mexican users to begin investing in traditional assets in the coming year and, starting next month, it will offer users a bitcoin exchange, as well.

What is more, it will issue its users debit cards that they can use to spend their pesos, dollars or bitcoin. And Chavarria says it plans to offer sats back rewards when users purchase either traditional assets or bitcoin via the app.

With so much coming down the pike, Chavarria is in good spirits.

“I'm just grateful that we're doing this,” he said.

“It's been really fun to build in the bear — now the good times are coming.”

What started as a dream and a meme has now become a reality, as Michael Saylor, a legendary advocate for Bitcoin and Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, is hosting the most epic New Year’s Eve celebration to mark this historic occasion.

Bitcoin Magazine is thrilled to announce that we are streaming live from the event in Miami Beach, bringing the excitement of Saylor’s $100K Bitcoin party straight to your screens. From 7:00 PM EST, join us on the Bitcoin Magazine News Desk, hosted by Pete Rizzo.

The Party has been hyped for years and is set to deliver on all fronts. Your favourite Bitcoiners and podcasters will attend, including the man of the hour, Michael Saylor, Preston Pysh, American Hodl, Peter McCormack, and other Bitcoin legends. Expect lively and fun discussions as Bitcoiners come together to ring in 2025.

This exclusive live stream will give you front-row access to the celebration as we welcome a new year—and a new era for Bitcoin.

Catch the Bitcoin Magazine News Desk live stream on X and YouTube starting today, December 31, 2024, at 7:00 PM EST.

Look, I know I am late to the party.

I remember covering the news of MicroStrategy’s first bitcoin purchase, and I’ve watched the stock rise from $14 to $400 per share. All that time, I didn’t buy.

Yet, this past Friday, for the first time since 2018, I bought stocks — specifically MicroStrategy (MSTR) and a couple other companies also holding bitcoin on their balance sheets. It was something I never thought I’d do again.

In 2018, I sold all my stocks for more bitcoin when the price crashed into the $3,000 range, and I have not purchased any other asset than bitcoin since then.

That changed this week. I was reading this interesting thread from Jeremy Garcia, founder and CEO of Satoshi's Journal, and he was summarizing MicroStrategy’s Q3 2024 earnings call from earlier this year. It made me come to some realizations.

First, if bitcoin is going to succeed in reaching a price in the hundreds of millions and beyond, then it makes sense to get some exposure to a company that now holds 446,400 BTC, is trading in the Nasdaq 100 Index, and has the future potential of joining the S&P 500.

A strategic bitcoin reserve strategy has the potential to make MicroStrategy one of the most, if not the most, valuable company in the world, and MicroStrategy is only going to continue to buy more bitcoin, according to Michael Saylor himself.

If MicroStrategy is to become the world's most valuable company, then their stock price today would be extremely undervalued to what it would be at that point in the future. Why wouldn’t I buy some? I already feel dumb enough for not buying any. Sure my bitcoin has performed extremely well, but MSTR has outperformed bitcoin.

I know I could just buy spot bitcoin, and maybe that’s the safest play to make. But I’ve also been accumulating bitcoin for a long time, and am interested in allocating some capital to buy shares in companies also betting on bitcoin’s future success.

I would be earning more fiat that I could then take and buy more bitcoin (if the stocks outperform BTC) but even if they don’t, it gives me the opportunity to take profit and use it for life expenses.

Another thing in the back of my mind is, what if something unforeseen happens in the future and I mess up and lose my bitcoin stack due to a personal error.

I’ll admit, I have anxiety knowing that even though I have thought out my bitcoin custody, and taken the necessary steps to properly secure my coins, something could still go wrong.

In this way, the thought of having some other assets to fall back on just in case is a positive.

Look, I’m bullish on bitcoin. And if bitcoin succeeds then I think the companies, individuals, and countries adopting it will likely succeed as well.

I love winning, and want to get some exposure to companies also winning big. If I am wrong on these bets then so be it, it’s only a small allocation to my overall portfolio. But the potential upside is worth the time and risk I think.

None of this is financial advice, I’m just sharing my thoughts on what I’m doing as a Bitcoiner. For now, that means I’m buying MSTR.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Whenever concerns surrounding Bitcoin’s long term prospects’ going in a negative direction surface, a common refrain of dismissal is “Well tell us what to do about it then.” This is used to dismiss all concerns of regulation leading to regulatory capture, of deeper involvement of certain entities leading to higher risks to the consensus process, of any type of failure mode that involves Bitcoin’s censorship resistance and ability to enable freedom eroding really.

“Well what’s your plan?”

Use Bitcoin. Bitcoin consensus orbits around two important variables, economic actors and miners. Economic actors decide whether a set of consensus rules has value by deciding whether to honor their side of a transaction based on whether it is valid according to their consensus rules. Miners decide which set of consensus rules they will mine within, choosing the one that presents the highest value to them.

Users who actually use Bitcoin, that is to transact and operate businesses, services, and other protocols to make use of blockspace, gain an influence through both mechanisms. A set of consensus rules needs two things, users who will value it, and miners who will mine it. Users buying blockspace attract miners with more revenue beyond what the block subsidy creates. To the degree that fees make up miners' revenue, users who generate those fees have that much proportionate “power” of a sort over miners. They decide in the event of a disagreement over consensus rules which side to give that revenue to, meaning miners would have to follow those rules to earn it.

The threat of institutional adoption and regulatory encroachment very much do present a risk to Bitcoin in the long term if people simply stop doing anything with bitcoin but hold it. In that type of environment, regulations can come down on miners and brokers and very much influence events around consensus changes. They can attempt to veto useful and valuable changes, and try to push useless or damaging ones.

So what do we do to counteract that? We actually use Bitcoin for more than holding and investing. That is why scalability is so important. Because it allows more people to directly interact with the system in that way, to directly exert their influence. The more we actually use Bitcoin, the more influence users collectively have to exert in the future over consensus.

If Bitcoiners relegate bitcoin to nothing more than an asset to hold, something to let sit idle, then we will eventually lose it. We will lose our say and influence in the markets bitcoin facilitates, we will lose our influence over the consensus rules that miners choose to mine, we will lose it all.

Bitcoiners need to be active, not passive. We need to transact, we need to build more businesses, consume more blockspace. With payment networks like Lightning or Ark, uncensorable derivatives markets using DLCs, even dumb things like Ordinals and Inscriptions. The demand for blockspace needs to come from distributed and diverse sources, not just massive institutions and companies easily subjectable to regulatory and government influence.

Bitcoin is very much a “use it or lose it” thing. I’d rather not see it lost to people who actually care about freedom due to apathy. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

But first some background on how Boltz Pro works.

According to Kilian, a co-founder of Boltz, the balances of Boltz’s wallets and Lightning channels are constantly shifting, especially as the volume and velocity of sats flowing through the platform increases.

So, the idea behind Boltz Pro is that users can help provide liquidity for swaps in the event that Boltz’s balances run low.

Here’s an example:

Let’s say Boltz is running short on its base chain bitcoin supply. Boltz will set its dynamic fee to -0.15% for bitcoin-to-Lightning swaps. This means that users get paid a 0.15% fee.

Once Boltz has seen enough volume flow in this direction and Boltz’s bitcoin wallet is refilled, fees will return to normal.

You won’t need to sign up to use Boltz Pro. Just stay on the lookout at https://pro.boltz.exchange/ for when fees on the platform flip negative and take advantage of the opportunity. And keep in mind that Boltz never takes custody of user funds, so you get to earn these sats in a non-custodial manner.

This is now the first place I’ll check when I’m looking to move sats between the base chain and Lightning or vice versa, as I’d much rather be paid to use Boltz than pay to use it.

Kudos to Boltz for enabling users to make a few extra sats for helping them out.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

I’ll start off by saying I have many reservations about the United States pursuing a Strategic Bitcoin reserve, with the major plans I’ve observed including legislation proposed by Senator Lummis and a draft Executive order from the Bitcoin Policy Institute (this does not include those proposed state-by-state, which is a different focus and a bit more straight forward given they hold some bitcoin to diversify their assets). My reservations include timing, political (polarizing) ramifications, mechanisms/cost of obtaining Bitcoin, why the U.S. would pursue this as a nation already leading as the world reserve currency, government getting more involved with Bitcoin could lead to more involvement/influence with Bitcoin’s development, and ramifications on Bitcoin as money for U.S. citizens (would privacy, medium of exchange, self-custody be at greater risk?). I think Nic Carter wrote an excellent piece questioning the SBR and advocating against the U.S. pursuing this which I’d highly encourage you to read.

While I have seen support for the SBR from Bitcoin proponents, mostly GOP politicians and Trump (in fairness Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna has said he’s supportive in theory I believe), there has yet to be any attention paid to this in a positive way from progressives. In fact, really only criticism. While I have my reservations and criticisms as I’ve clearly stated to be transparent here, I’d like to focus on some ways in which a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could actually be a positive thing for Americans, from a progressive’s lens and values with an emphasis on social safety net spending. This has yet to be discussed at any scale, and I’d like to offer some thoughts, and some actual social good this could do besides just “strengthen the United States as a global power and strengthen the dollar.” Ok, but what could this do for actual, every day people in America? That’s what I care about, and probably you too.

This overwhelming image was captured today from https://www.usdebtclock.org/. What the U.S. doesn’t have a solid answer for is how we are going to pay for the vital services needed and expected from citizens at this point when facing a debt and spending crises compared to our budget/tax receipts. Depending on who you ask and which economic theories you subscribe to, there are different ways for handling this—but the issue remains: the U.S. is kicking the can down the road regarding debt, spending and refusing to either raise taxes or cut spending dramatically and catastrophically. I wanted to set the stage first, and then offer some strategic use cases of a SBR toward social safety net spending, the budget deficit, and a government by the people, for the people with Bitcoin.

1. Hedge Against Inflation to Protect Public Programs

• Stability for Social Spending: Inflation and currency devaluation erode the purchasing power of government budgets, reducing the effectiveness of social safety net programs. A Bitcoin reserve, as a deflationary asset, could serve as a hedge against such economic risks, ensuring stable funding for programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. As things get more expensive in fiat terms (salaries, healthcare bills, vital hospital technology, medications, treatments, etc) they get cheaper in Bitcoin terms.
• Future-Proofing Benefits: Bitcoin’s limited supply could protect against long-term depreciation of fiat currency, ensuring that entitlement programs maintain their value and benefit recipients in the decades to come.

2. Revenue Generation for Safety Nets

• Asset Appreciation: Bitcoin has shown significant price appreciation over the long term. A government-held Bitcoin reserve could be leveraged during times of financial need to generate additional revenue for funding social programs. The key here is a long-term view, not short term trading.
• Controlled Liquidation: Under a progressive framework, the government could design strict protocols for selling portions of the reserve during economic downturns or crises to avoid undermining the reserve’s long-term value while supporting public welfare.

3. Alternative to Taxpayer Burden

• Reducing Taxpayer Reliance: Traditionally, funding for social safety nets comes from taxes, which can disproportionately impact middle- and lower-income households. A Bitcoin reserve could provide an alternative funding source, reducing the reliance on direct taxation for safety net programs.
• Reducing deficit spending: One of the leading cases of inflation is deficit spending via money printing mechanisms from the Fed, Treasury and Congress passing legislation well beyond our assets and tax receipts. A SBR could be used to help us rely less on the money printing that is responsible for overwhelming inflation on the lower and middle class that is often use to fund our government and social safety net programs. By including Bitcoin alongside traditional reserves like gold, the government could enhance its fiscal capacity to sustain welfare programs without relying on deficit spending.

4. Emergency Financial Assistance

• Crisis Mitigation Fund: During financial crises, the government often struggles to rapidly mobilize resources for safety net expansions. Bitcoin, being highly liquid and accessible globally, could act as an emergency reserve for direct cash transfers or funding unemployment benefits in times of economic distress.
• Global Remittance Efficiency: Bitcoin’s borderless nature could streamline the delivery of international aid or remittances to support diaspora communities or vulnerable populations abroad, aligning with progressive values of global equity.

5. Promoting Financial Inclusion for Vulnerable Populations

• Bridging the Wealth Gap: A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could be paired with policies that encourage public ownership of Bitcoin, offering individuals and communities the ability to participate in a financial system that is less dependent on traditional banking structures. Look to programs such as the Alaska Permanent Fund which pays dividends based on Alaska’s oil reserve and production
• Direct Redistribution Mechanisms: The government could use gains from Bitcoin reserves to fund Universal Basic Income (UBI) programs or targeted assistance for low-income households. Margot and I discussed this possibility with Scott Santens, a leading expert on UBI on our podcast.

While not directly connected to the SBR, the acceptance of Bitcoin at this stage could open the door for more possibilities regarding Bitcoin mining and the community.

6. Incentivizing Green Bitcoin Mining for Job Creation

• Jobs for At-Risk Communities: Bitcoin mining operations, if incentivized to use renewable energy, could create jobs in underserved regions, providing a dual benefit of economic revitalization and environmental progress.
• Revenue for Local Governments: Tax revenues generated from sustainable Bitcoin mining operations could be redirected to strengthen local safety nets, such as affordable housing or community healthcare initiatives.

7. Economic Resilience to Fund Long-Term Programs

• Buffer Against Economic Crises: In times of economic downturns or geopolitical instability, Bitcoin’s independence from fiat currency systems could provide a financial buffer. This could ensure that critical safety net programs continue to operate without disruption.
• Strengthening the Social Contract: By maintaining a reserve that safeguards national economic security, the government reinforces its commitment to protecting vulnerable populations, which is a core progressive principle.

8. Enhancing Public Trust in Social Programs

• Transparent Funding Mechanism: Bitcoin’s blockchain technology ensures a transparent ledger. Using a Bitcoin reserve to partially fund social programs could increase public trust in how resources are allocated and managed, reducing skepticism about government waste or corruption. The SBR bitcoin addresses would be made public (like El Salvador does)
• Public Ownership: Progressives could propose allocating a small portion of Bitcoin gains directly to citizens through rebates or credits tied to social programs, creating a tangible connection between national reserves and public benefit. Again, back to a dividend or UBI approach

This is just the tip of the iceberg for how progressives might theoretically approach a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. While this is more of an intellectual exercise at this point, and my focus continues to be on grassroots adoption of Bitcoin and how this can transform individual’s lives and communities around the world, it raises an important point — what social good could we imagine Bitcoin providing in our ever evolving, changing, and fiscally challenging world? Beyond just number go up, crypto traders, and wall street getting richer, what role can Bitcoin play in improving the lives of everyday people at a deep, structural level? We’ll continue to explore these questions here at The Progressive Bitcoiner.

This is a guest post by Trey Walsh. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

I have just finished reading Debt: The First 5000 Years by anthropologist David Graeber. The book takes a look at the history of money, debt, and how they relate to societal structures from a lens that departs heavily from the conventional wisdom of economic thinking.

Conventional wisdom paints a picture of people inefficiently bartering goods and services directly for each other, and money naturally arising as a result of the problems inherent in this. Graeber eviscerates this narrative looking at anthropological history. Primitive communities simply shared their resources freely with each other, living in a communal lifestyle, with bartering rarely taking place, and only in the context of separate communities interacting with each other. It played no role in early societies’ intra-communal affairs.

Money, as in commodity money, only began to be used in rare inter-communal interactions across great distances. The economy in local regions did not begin using such mechanisms for exchange. They used credit. Credit operated and overseen by the government, such as in Ancient Sumer. This system grew out of the informal “credits” people considered when sharing resources in more primitive societies. But it was formalized and maintained by the power structure of the government and temples of Sumer. No money would change hands during exchanges, people would simply record debts stored at the temple, and periodically settle their obligations with actual consumable commodities.

Debt came before coinage, and it was created and maintained at scale by the state. Commodity money only came later, again minted and circulated by the state, as large scale trust based civilizations collapsed and gave way to warring imperial states. Debt and credit do not make much sense in a time period of constant war and roving armies, with no certainty at all they will ever return to settle debts after moving on.

Ever since, with the anomaly of the modern era and central banks, human societies have oscillated between virtual credit money and coinage depending on whether or not the era of the time was predominantly predicated on large scale war and conquest. The same patterns repeated through the ages as well, with people creating their own informal and localized credit networks after large Empires using coinage fell, the government slowly inserting themselves into these to mediate, and inevitably the return of coinage as violent Empires rose.

Bartar, as conventionally taught, was never actually a part of this process of the development of money, and the state invariably had a direct involvement in the formation of monetary systems and markets.

I’m sure many people are incredibly triggered reading that, but Graeber’s case is very solid and built upon actual historical and anthropological evidence, rather than speculation. Especially the idea that Chartalism has a much sounder basis than many in this space would like to admit.

This actually makes Bitcoin all the more profound to me. Bitcoin isn’t simply going back to a stateless money, I don’t think that one ever truly existed after reading Debt. Bitcoin is the first stateless money to ever exist. To me, that makes it an even more immense accomplishment and historical shift.

Regardless of your economic leanings, I recommend giving this book a read. It will give you quite a lot to think about in the context of Bitcoin. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

On a recent episode of the Galaxy Brains podcast, Michael Saylor made the case that bitcoin isn’t a currency and that it’s best to think of it as capital and capital only.

He also shared that Tether (USDT) and Circle’s USD Coin (USDC) are the real digital currencies and unveiled his “evil genius strategy” (his own words) to get the world to adopt the U.S. dollar stablecoins as opposed to bitcoin.

In this Take, I’ll cite some of Saylor’s own words from the podcast before breaking down why many of the points he made are off base.

Capital, Not Currency

“It’s not a currency, it’s capital,” said Saylor about halfway through the episode.

“You just have to come to grips with it — it is not digital currency. It is not cryptocurrency. It is digital capital. It is crypto capital,” he added.

I searched the Bitcoin Whitepaper to see how many times the word “capital” showed up.

It isn’t mentioned once.

However, in both the title and abstract of the text, bitcoin is referred to as “electronic cash.” While cash can of course also be capital, it’s not only capital. To think of bitcoin only as capital is to deny certain of its most essential properties — like the ability to use it to transact with anyone anywhere in the world permissionlessly.

To deny bitcoin as a currency is to deny a large part of its value proposition. Bitcoin’s roles as a Store of Value (SoV) and a Medium of Exchange (MoE) are inextricably linked. For more on this, I’d advise you (and Michael Saylor) to read Breez CEO Roy Sheinfeld’s piece “Bitcoin’s False Dichotomy between SoV and MoE”.

As the episode proceeded Saylor continued to (poorly) make the case for why bitcoin is capital and not currency.

“There are a lot of maxis who are like ‘No, we want it to be a currency. We want to be able to pay for coffee with our bitcoin. Pay me in bitcoin,’” he said. “It’s like ‘Pay me in gold. Pay me in a building. Pay me with a slice of your professional sports team. Pay me with a Picasso.’”

It’s actually not like that at all.

Sure, bitcoin is scarce, somewhat like gold, Manhattan real estate, sports teams or famous paintings, but it has a number of other properties that make it far different from any of these other assets.

To illustrate a dimension of that point, I’ll cite my colleague Alex Bergeron:

I invite anyone who thinks Bitcoin is like gold to launch a custodial gold wallet.

I’ll wait.

— Alex B (@bergealex4) December 22, 2024

And then Saylor cited — wait for it — Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s take on bitcoin in efforts to drive home his point that bitcoin is capital, not currency.

“The reason bitcoin rallied past $100,000 is because Jerome Powell on stage said to the world, bitcoin does not compete with the dollar, it competes with gold,” he said.

Oddly enough, Saylor said this without acknowledging that the man who said this is the head of the institution that Bitcoin should theoretically replace.

USDT, Not BTC

In the interview, Saylor also drove home the point that the real digital currencies are U.S. dollar stablecoins.

“The cryptocurrency, the digital currency, is Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC),” he said. “It’s a stablecoin U.S. dollar — that’s the digital currency.”

This is when I started to get nauseous.

For those who don’t yet know this, Bitcoin came into the world in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when the U.S. government in conjunction with the U.S. Federal Reserve opted to print U.S. dollars en masse (debase the currency) to bail out failing banks, the burden of which was laid both on the U.S. taxpayers and U.S. dollar holders worldwide.

Bitcoin is a decentralized money that was created as an alternative to the U.S. dollar and all other fiat currencies. Trying to convince people that bitcoin is not this is disingenuous at best, deeply manipulative at worst.

But this isn’t even the worst of what Saylor had to say on the episode.

He went on to propose that the banks that got bailed out in the 2008 financial crisis issue their own stablecoins, which would help prop up the U.S. debt market.

“They ought to just create a normal regime to issue digital currency backed by U.S. treasuries,” said Saylor.

“The U.S. ought to have a framework so Tether relocates to New York City. That’s what you want, right? And then you ought to basically have a free-for-all where JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs can issue their own stablecoin,” he added.

No, Michael Saylor, that’s not what I want. In fact, it’s very far from what I want.

I don’t want Tether anywhere near New York City (my hometown) and I don’t want JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs issuing U.S. dollar stablecoins that they control, essentially the equivalent of CBDCs.

When I think about Goldman Sachs, the first thing that comes to mind is award-winning writer Matt Taibbi’s description of the institution from his New York Times bestseller Griftopia.

“The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it's everywhere,” wrote Taibbi in the book. “The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”

Goldman Sachs, much like the U.S. Federal Reserve, is an institution that sucks the life force from humanity. Bitcoin was designed to take power away from such institutions, not strengthen them.

Toward the end of the episode, Saylor laid out his master plan for bitcoin and U.S. dollar stablecoins.

Here it is:

“Everybody outside the U.S. would give their left arm to be capitalized on U.S. bonds. So, my strategy would be — and I really think it’s an evil genius strategy; it’s so good that our enemies would hate us, but our allies would complain, too. And the U.S. would make $100 trillion in a heartbeat.

Here’s the strategy: You dump gold, demonetize the entire gold network. You buy bitcoin — 5 million or 6 million bitcoin — and you monetize the bitcoin network. All the capital in the world, sitting in Siberian real estate or Chinese natural gas or every other currency derivative that’s held as a long-term store of value — Europeans, Africans, South Americans, Asians, they all just dump their crappy property and their crappy capital assets and they buy bitcoin. The price of bitcoin goes to the moon.

The U.S. is the big beneficiary. U.S. companies are the big beneficiary. And while you’re doing that, you normalize and support digital currency, and you just define digital currency as the U.S. dollar backed by U.S. dollar equivalents in a regulated U.S. custodian that’s audited. What happens next?

$150 billion of stablecoins goes to $1 trillion, $2 trillion, $4 trillion, $8 trillion, probably somewhere between $8 and $16 trillion, and you create $10 to $20 trillion of demand for U.S. sovereign debt.

While you’re taking away a little bit of the demand because the capital asset of bitcoin grows, you’re adding back the demand to back the stablecoin. [The digital U.S. dollar then] replaces the CNY, the Rubble. It replaces every African currency. It replaces every South American currency. It replaces the euro.

If you really believe in U.S. world reserve currency and U.S. values, every single currency in the world will actually just merge into the U.S. dollar if it was freely available.”

At this point, I stopped listening to the episode and projectile vomited all over the New York City subway car in which I was sitting.

I didn’t come into the Bitcoin space to help the U.S. run a scheme in which it acquires a large percentage of the bitcoin while hooking the world on its trash currency, and it deeply saddens me that someone that many in the Bitcoin space look up to would come up with such a conniving plan.

Bitcoin Is Money

Bitcoin is money. It’s a type of money that cannot be censored or debased that has spectacularly grown in value over the past decade, making it one of, if not the most, powerful tool ever created for individuals.

To think of it as anything less, or to try to convince people that a new iteration of an incumbent version of money is better than it, is to be deeply misinformed.

While bitcoin is capital, that’s not all it is, and please don’t let Michael Saylor or anyone else convince you otherwise.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Confirming Bull Market Conditions

Before accumulating, ensure you're still in a bull market. The MVRV Z-score helps identify overheated or undervalued conditions by analyzing the deviation between market value and realized value.

View Live Chart ????

Avoid Buying when the Z-score reaches high values, such as above 6.00, which would indicate the market is overextended and nearing a potential bearish reversal. If the Z-score is below this, dips likely represent opportunities, especially if other indicators align. Don’t accumulate aggressively during a bear market. Focus instead on finding the macro bottom.

Short-Term Holders

This chart reflects the average cost basis of new market participants, offering a glimpse into the Short-Term Holder activity. Historically, during bull cycles, whenever the price rebounds off the Short-Term Holder Realized Price line (or slightly dips below), it has presented excellent opportunities for accumulation.

View Live Chart ????

Gauging Market Sentiment

Though simple, the Fear and Greed Index provides valuable insight into market emotions. Scores of 25 or below often signify extreme fear, which often accompanies irrational sell-offs. These moments offer favorable risk-to-reward conditions.

View Live Chart ????

Spotting Market Overreaction

Funding Rates reflect trader sentiment in futures markets. Negative Funding during bull cycles are particularly telling. Exchanges like Bybit, which attract retail investors, show that negative Rates are a strong signal for accumulation during dips.

View Live Chart ????

When traders use BTC as collateral, negative rates often indicate excellent buying opportunities, as those shorting with Bitcoin tend to be more cautious and deliberate. This is why I prefer focusing on Coin-Denominated Funding Rates as opposed to regular USD Rates.

Active Address Sentiment Indicator

This tool measures the divergence between Bitcoin’s price and network activity, when we see a divergence in the Active Address Sentiment Indicator (AASI) it indicates that there’s overly bearish price action given how strong the underlying network usage is.

View Live Chart ????

My preferred method of utilization is to wait until the 28-day percentage price change dips beneath the lower standard deviation band of the 28-day percentage change in active addresses and crosses back above. This buy signal confirms network strength and often signals a reversal.

Conclusion

Accumulating during bull market dips involves managing risk rather than chasing bottoms. Buying slightly higher but in oversold conditions reduces the likelihood of experiencing a 20%-40% drawdown compared to purchasing during a sharp rally.

Confirm we’re still in a bull market and dips are for buying, then identify favorable buying zones using multiple metrics for confluence, such as Short-Term Holder Realized Price, Fear & Greed Index, Funding Rates, and AASI. Prioritize small, incremental purchases (dollar-cost averaging) over going all-in and focus on risk-to-reward ratios rather than absolute dollar amounts.

By combining these strategies, you can make informed decisions and capitalize on the unique opportunities presented by bull market dips. For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: How To Accumulate Bitcoin Bull Market Dips

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The bulls had returned, sleighing bears left and right, now six figure Bitcoin was an everyday sight.

All miners were buzzing, hash rates on the rise, securing the network under wintery skies.

Our Lambos were gleaming, parked under the stars, proof that HODLing beats shitcoins by far.

El Salvador kept buying, more coin for their stocking, before dreams of more sats inevitably come knocking.

The ETFs rallied, their bids filled the air, it's Bitcoin's new era, Satoshi did declare.

Our on-chain data, so bright and so clear, Screamed “HODL through 2025, vast wealth will appear!”

With supply getting tighter, few coin left to sell, it’s the sound of adoption; Bitcoin’s doing swell.

When out on the charts there arose such a cheer, “A new all-time high! This is our year!”

To the exchanges we flew, with wallets in tow, the institutional FOMO already began to show.

Investors wondered if we could Supercycle, breaking the system with cheap debt from Michael.

Then who should appear in a sleigh trimmed with gold? Who else but Trump with a plan so bullish and bold.

“A strategic reserve!” he proclaimed with a roar, “America’s future is with Bitcoin I'm sure!”

He winked at the bulls as his sleigh took its flight, “Merry Christmas to hodlers, and to hodlers, a good night!”

If you’re looking for a last-minute gift for that special someone or feel like treating yourself, then how about giving the gift of a Bitcoin data analysis platform subscription, now with a whopping 30% off holiday discount:

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/subscribe/ 

Thanks for reading, and Merry Christmas!

In a new report, the Open Dialogue Foundation (ODF) provides an overview and analysis of upcoming regulatory proposals around non-custodial Bitcoin and crypto wallets in the European Union (E.U.).

Some of the proposals — many of which are based on FATF recommendations — will negatively affect users’ ability to transact with crypto assets privately.

EU & FATF 2025: Your Bitcoin Wallet's New Rules?

What is the best Christmas gift from human rights, privacy and Bitcoin advocates?@ODFoundation provides you with a comprehensive respond on what you should know while using #Bitcoin p2p wallet, privacy payments tools &… pic.twitter.com/YZIlCZjSiR

— Lyudmyla Kozlovska ???????????????? (@LyudaKozlovska) December 24, 2024

Important takeaways from the report include:

• According to guidelines from the European Banking Authority (EBA), the current regulatory framework around crypto assets in the E.U. allows for actions that pose significant risks, including immediate withdrawals to non-custodial wallets and the use of anonymity-enhancing tools like mixers.
• Forthcoming Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) regulation may influence Crypto-Asset Service Providers (CASPs) to adopt stricter AML/KYC practices.
• Regulation from the E.U. may prohibit CASPs from facilitating anonymous transactions, which would both reduce privacy for users of crypto-assets and increase operational costs for CASPs.
• The obligations that may be imposed on CASPs will conflict with the rise of proliferation of open-source technologies like the Lightning Network, Fedimint and ecash, which let users transact privately and in a censorship-resistant manner.

Do I share this all because I’m trying to ruin your holiday season? No, sirs and ma’ams.

I share it because we should be grateful for the work that the Open Dialogue Foundation does in shedding light on what’s happening within the regulatory landscape in the E.U. (especially as it pertains to non-custodial crypto wallets) and in developing relationships with elected officials in the E.U. to educate them on the importance of Bitcoin and other freedom technologies.

So, if you’re looking to make a tax-deductible donation to a nonprofit before the year is out, consider donating to the ODF.

And if you’re thinking either “Well, I don’t live in the E.U., so this doesn’t affect me” or “I do live in the E.U., but I’ll just move if it passes bad regulation,” I’d asking you to consider the following two points, (the first of which I lifted directly from this recent ODF report):

1. The European Union plays a central role in shaping global financial regulatory standards (which means that crypto transaction privacy advocates across the globe have something at stake here).
2. The organization making many of the proposals for the new regulatory framework in the E.U. — the FATF — is an international one, and it will leverage any wins it chalks up in the E.U. to influence regulation in other jurisdictions.

But, again, don’t be scared; be grateful.

Donate to the ODF to support its efforts, or do what you can to amplify the organization’s messaging.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

The PhD-holding anthropologist is on the verge of upping the ante around her Bitcoin-related thought contributions with the new book she’s edited and to which she’s contributed, The Satoshi Papers: Reflections On Political Economy After Bitcoin (published by the Bitcoin Policy Institute's imprint of Bitcoin Magazine Books and available for pre-order now).

The book is a collection of texts from some of the most prominent academics who write about Bitcoin, including Andrew M. Bailey, Avik Roy and Leopoldo Bebchuk. With pieces entitled “Easy Money, Easy Wars? The Evolution of War Finance, Forever Wars, and the Prospects of a Bitcoin Peace” and “Dispute Resolution Without the State,” Smolenski and her colleagues explore the potential shifts in politics and power that may occur as a result of Bitcoin’s existence and proliferation.

I sat down with Smolenski to discuss why she chose to publish The Satoshi Papers at this moment in time, who she hopes to reach via the book and why the book isn't an “apology” for Bitcoin.

What was the impetus to put The Satoshi Papers together?

Back in 2020, a friend of mine, Lee Bratcher, and I co-founded the Texas Blockchain Council, which was a trade association representing the Bitcoin industry in Texas. We also set up the Texas Blockchain Summit, which was our annual conference and one of the first policy-focused conferences around Bitcoin in the United States.

After the very first Texas Blockchain Summit, I was speaking with a good friend of mine who suggested that the time may be right to publish some essays about this moment in the historical adoption of Bitcoin — that this was kind of a refounding moment for the American Republic.

Bitcoin is a part of that story, but it's not the whole story. So, there seemed to be an opportunity to collect works from interdisciplinary voices to talk about and investigate what the relationship between the individual, society and the state looks like in a post-Bitcoin world.

I took that as a kind of mission, and I founded the Texas Bitcoin Foundation, which is a 501(c)(3), an education-focused charity. I took a step back from the policy space in order to focus more on some of the theoretical and scientific issues that I think need to inform the policy conversation going forward.

How did you decide on the roster of contributors for the book?

There were some people we invited personally, because I knew them, and I knew that they were strong thinkers in the Bitcoin space. A number of them came back and said, “Yes, we'd love to contribute an essay.”

So, we had some personal invitations go out and then we also had an open call for papers and those went through a couple of rounds. Initially, people just submitted an abstract, and we gave the most promising abstracts feedback if we thought they could potentially be a fit for the paper.

We got initial drafts from some of those. Then, we had a second round of edits based on the strength of the scholarly argument.

Can you explain what political economy is?

Political economy is actually an old term. Back before political science and economics functioned as separate fields, there was this domain of political economy, which studied how states and societies generated wealth, like Adam Smith did in The Wealth of Nations.

Many of the people that we think of today as economists would have called themselves political economists back then because they recognized that markets are shaped in large part by the ways that human societies organize themselves politically. This is not the same thing as saying the market is downstream from the state. Some have made that argument recently, but it's actually much more nuanced than that.

There's been a kind of return or resurgence of interest in political economy in recent years, in part as a response to the perceived inadequacy of theoretical frameworks in traditional or mainstream economics today to understand the nuances of markets without taking into account the domain of the political.

How will political economy change now that Bitcoin exists?

Well, that's a huge question, and that's what the essays in this volume approach from different angles.

The issuance and maintenance of money is one of many functions of the state — legitimately or illegitimately — depending on your theory of the state.

There's a way in which Bitcoin has automated one of the functions of the nation state. That said, what it doesn't do is create a centrally managed token that functions as the jurisdictional medium of exchange of debt settlement in countries around the world.

So, there's a way in which Bitcoin exists in tension with the nation state, but doesn't necessarily undermine it, which is an interesting area to explore.

Bitcoin offers an alternative to government-issued currencies, but the presence of an alternative in and of itself does not mean that government-issued monies will go away. Rather, it forces governments to accept the reality that they do not, in fact, have a monopoly over what their people use as a store of value, unit of account, and medium of exchange.

Much in the same way, the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution reminds the government that it does not have a monopoly on violence. The state must exist in tension with the sovereignty of the individual — which includes the right to transact and the right to bear arms — and that means there are limits to state sovereignty.

What sets this book apart from all other books that have been published on Bitcoin thus far?

There have been very few book-length academic treatments of Bitcoin. The main example that I can think of is Resistance Money, which came out this year.

The Satoshi Papers is different in that, rather than being a consistently-authored volume, it is a compilation of articles by different scholars from different disciplines. It is a collection of different voices from various social sciences about Bitcoin. It's the only book of its kind that does that.

The other thing that I would say sets The Satoshi Papers apart is that it is not an apology — and I use that term classically — for Bitcoin in any way. Apologia is a justification or an argument in favor. We're not arguing for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is here. It is a fact. It is a material and social fact.

So, the questions that we are exploring in this paper are: What kind of force does Bitcoin have? What are the significant political and geopolitical trends that are influencing the expression of self sovereignty and shaping how self-sovereign technological architectures come about? What does this tell us about the nature of money as a social phenomenon?

Money, much like language and law, is an emergent social phenomenon that does not require the state. Nevertheless, there are top-down vectors of value issuance and management that do impact the ways that money is used in human society. So, in some ways the volumes are exploring that tension between top-down and bottom-up vectors of social organization.

Why has academia not only been reluctant to discuss Bitcoin but seemingly by and large against it?

Unfortunately, academia has been the epicenter of what I think is rightly called a cultural revolution in Anglophone countries and in the West more broadly. I think there has been a drive toward emancipation for historically marginalized groups. That has not only significantly influenced scholarship, but has taken it in directions that increasingly have privileged the role of the state over the role of the individual and civil society in realizing the project of emancipation.

And so there is a widespread suspicion of anything smacking of individualism, which is in effect seen as a cover for exploitation. For this reason, movements like Bitcoin, which are more “anarchist-coded” or “right-coded” — even though I would argue that there's nothing right wing or left wing about Bitcoin — exist in a highly-politicized tribal environment and are identified with political enemies.

So, this volume was very consciously crafted to intervene in that milieu, in large part by not apologizing for Bitcoin. No, we're not going to take a demure posture here. Bitcoin’s existence is a material fact that you have to reckon with as social scientists. You may not like it. It may not fit into your model of emancipation, but it is here and it has been brought about exclusively by the volunteer labor of individuals around the world who often quite selflessly sacrifice their time and their life to create this avenue of liberty in a world of intense and intensifying state control.

There is a self-confidence to The Satoshi Papers that comes from being academically rigorous, being able to intervene into the debates in the academy. The authors are familiar with the traditions, familiar with the literatures, able to speak to them, and in no way apologize for what all of these academics eventually will simply pre-suppose as part of the architecture of the world.

Everyone's going to be using Bitcoin. They may not realize it, but it's just going to become folded into the fabric of their transacting. So, this is an opportunity for those in the academy who have eyes to see and ears to hear to engage proactively in a dialogue about these issues.

What audience do you have in mind for this book?

Anthropologists, economists, philosophers, historians, economic historians.

At the same time, is this the type of book that someone who reads The Bitcoin Standard might read, as well?

Yes, I think this book has unique crossover appeal. I think it is comprehensible and accessible for the educated lay reader, and it also checks the boxes for a scholarly reader who is looking for things like literature review, engagement with the historical debate, source criticism, etc.

The book’s epilogue, “Peer-To-Peer Is A Human Right”, is the transcript from a speech you gave this past April at the Bitcoin Policy Summit. Why do you feel that this point needs to be made so explicitly, especially to academics?

The majority of the social sciences and humanities today are, let's say, left-oriented politically for lack of a better term, but what that means has changed. In the early-20th century/late-19th century, even early to the mid-19th century, the political left was strongly influenced by anarchist reform movements, and there was a strong tradition of anarcho-leftist thought. That pretty much fell away after the Second World War.

It seems that the anarchist tradition of thought as it pertains to Bitcoin exists more in Europe than it does in The States. Have you noticed this?

That may be very true. I'm actually not that familiar with the shape of the academy in Western Europe right now, but I would see that as entirely plausible, particularly since there were quite a few thinkers in the French anthropological tradition in the early 20th century, who were very anarcho-leftist, anarcho-socialist.

There was kind of a triumph of a certain very statist approach to socialism and even communism in the American academy, in the Anglophone academy, that has persisted to this day, where there's, like I was saying earlier, a suspicion of anything smacking of individualism as bourgeois conceit or reinscribing social hierarchies, racial hierarchies, gender hierarchies, blah, blah, blah.

This is just a peculiarity of the historical moment that we're in, and I suspect as the surveillance and control exercised by the state perhaps turns against some of these folks in the academy, there will be a greater level of awareness as to the value of bottom-up approaches to emancipation.

But right now, it's hard for a lot of people to imagine. They really see the state as the solution to social inequality and oppression.

Many see the state as the mechanism to redistribute wealth, but don’t see the perniciousness of money printing by the Federal Reserve, which works in conjunction with the state. Why don’t academics talk about the harmful effects of currency debasement?

Well, I think the political imagination of many social scientists has been strongly shaped by imagining capitalism and the capitalist as the primary enemy of humanity.

What they're looking for is the Leviathan, because they're looking for something that has the power to crush the Elon Musks of the world, who they just hate and hold responsible for virtually every social ill. There isn't a lot that is redeemable about that kind of caricatured social vision.

But I think there are people in the academy who even might partake of that prejudice who are rigorous thinkers and they want to be engaged with rigorous arguments from “a different perspective.”

The problem with culture war is that it tends to elicit responses that are just as petty and reductive as the originally-proposed points of view. So, if you come into the world spewing a caricatured points of view, you're going to tend to attract other caricatured points of view. And then it just becomes this tit for tat and doesn't get anywhere. Part of the objective of The Satoshi Papers is to enter that conversation orthogonally.

This is not a Republican book. This is not some kind of an apologia, like I was saying, for any political orientation or ideology. It is an intervention in a scientific conversation about the origin and nature of money.

So, if you want to take issue with its claims, you absolutely can. They're right there. In fact, we welcome disagreement. If our authors are wrong about something, we want to know that, but we're not going to be fighting ideological wars here.

What do you hope people will take away from The Satoshi Papers?

If there's only one idea that people take away from it, it's that your emancipation does not require the state. You do not need to wait for the government.

My God, take control of your life. You can, it is within your power to do so, and here are some examples of ways that people throughout human history have chosen to do so.

We have a couple of papers in the book that speculate on the following: What could credit look like on a bitcoin standard? What are different fiscal scenarios for the United States that future presidential administrations could pursue?

The horizon of political possibility is so much wider than we often imagine from our embattled position as culture warriors in the present day, and that's what we're trying to blow open.

Recently, BlackRock released an educational video explaining Bitcoin, which I thought was great—it's amazing to see Bitcoin being discussed on such a massive platform. But, of course, Bitcoin X (Twitter) had a meltdown over one specific line in the video: "There is no guarantee that Bitcoin's 21 million supply cap will not be changed."

HealthRnager from Natural News claimed, "Bitcoin has become far too centralized, and now the wrong people largely control its algorithms. They are TELLING you in advance what they plan to do."

Now, let me be clear: this is total nonsense. The controversy is overhyped, and the idea that BlackRock would—or even could—change bitcoin's supply is laughable. The statement in their video is technically true, but it's just a legal disclaimer. It doesn't mean BlackRock is plotting to inflate bitcoin's supply. And even if they were, they don't have the power to pull it off.

Bitcoin's 21 million cap is fundamental—it's not up for debate. The entire Bitcoin ecosystem—miners, developers, and nodes—operates on this core principle. Without it, Bitcoin wouldn't be Bitcoin. And while BlackRock is a financial giant and holds over 500,000 Bitcoin for its ETF, its influence over Bitcoin is practically nonexistent.

Bitcoin is a proof-of-work (PoW) system, not a proof-of-stake (PoS) system. It doesn't matter how much bitcoin BlackRock owns; economic nodes hold the real power.

Let's play devil's advocate for a second. Say BlackRock tries to propose a protocol change to increase bitcoin's supply. What happens? The vast network of nodes would simply reject it. Bitcoin's history proves this. Remember Roger Ver and the Bitcoin Cash fork? He had significant influence and holdings, yet his version of bitcoin became irrelevant because the majority of economic actors didn't follow him.

If Bitcoin could be controlled by a single entity like BlackRock, it would've failed a long time ago. The U.S. government, with its endless money printer, could easily acquire 10% of the supply if that's all it took to control Bitcoin. But that's not how Bitcoin works. Its decentralized nature ensures no single entity—no matter how powerful—can dictate its terms.

So, stop worrying about BlackRock "changing" Bitcoin. Their influence has hard limits. Even if they tried to push developers to change the protocol, nodes would reject it. Bitcoin's decentralization is its greatest strength, and no one—not BlackRock, not Michael Saylor—can change that.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

On a recent episode of the Coinage podcast, guest SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said that she is open to reconsidering in-kind redemptions for spot bitcoin ETFs.

(For those who aren’t familiar with the term “in-kind redemption,” it refers to the ability to withdraw the bitcoin you’ve purchased via an ETF into your own custody. In essence, it turns a bitcoin IOU into the real thing.)

BREAKING: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce previews new pro-crypto changes coming to the SEC

ETF in-kind redemptions and ability for ETF issuers to begin staking likely done "early on"

Both ETFs now have more than $100B in AUM pic.twitter.com/g3jtbuBeWU

— Coinage (@coinage_media) December 20, 2024

This makes my heart happy, as bitcoin wasn’t designed to exist trapped within the wrappers of the old system. It was built to set us free from that system.

If Peirce can work with the incoming SEC Chair, Paul Atkins, to facilitate the approval of in-kind redemptions then the spot bitcoin ETFs can serve as some of the biggest on-ramps to Bitcoin, as Bitwise co-founder Hong Kim put it, as opposed to simply existing as speculation vehicles.

Bitcoin was born to exist in the wild. It wasn’t born to exist in a Wall Street zoo.

In-kind redemptions would allow the bitcoin currently trapped within the zoo the ability to return to its natural habitat.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

It is still practically almost $100,000 for a single bitcoin. It is crazy to me to think that the “dip” is back to just under that important milestone, and really shows how far this asset has come over the last 15, going on 16 years.

Year-to-date, bitcoin is up over 128%. And by historical trends, it is entering into its third year of rising in price before having a large correction. So this tells me that bitcoin isn’t done pumping yet, it’s just taking a breather before its next leg up.

#Bitcoin should continue pumping through next year, based on historical trends ????

How high will BTC rise in 2025? ???? pic.twitter.com/VFX6jNgvvP

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 13, 2024

HODLing bitcoin can be scary at times for new Bitcoiners. This asset is volatile both ways – which is great when it’s pumping but it makes people rethink their lives when it’s dumping. If you are new and bought the local top of $108,000 and are panicking, take it from me, someone who has been in Bitcoin for almost eight years now – you’re going to be fine.

This is a healthy pull back and the only thing you should be worried about is stacking more bitcoin today than you had yesterday.

It is more important to learn the fundamentals of Bitcoin and understand this new asset class than to worry about what the price of bitcoin does on a day to day basis. Bitcoin is a wild beast and will have downturns just as hard as it swings up. This volatility, even the downturns, are a good thing for many reasons – it creates opportunities. Especially for new bitcoiners to take advantage of stacking bitcoin at cheaper prices than when they originally got in.

Whenever you’re in doubt, it’s always important to zoom out and see the trajectory that bitcoin is on. Bitcoin has two possible scenarios it will experience:

1.) Bitcoin will fail and go to $0.

2.) Bitcoin will succeed and reach a price range in the millions and beyond.

I think Bitcoin has proven itself that it will not fail, so option number 1 here is not on the table. Meaning option number 2 is what is more likely to happen.

And if option number 2 is going to happen, then well, you should stack more bitcoin on every downturn.

When in doubt, zoom out.

HODL ✊ pic.twitter.com/mr61ppIn3Y

— Nikolaus Hoffman (@NikolausHoff) December 20, 2024

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Are we talking about a stockpile, a sovereign wealth fund, or a reserve?

First, there’s the notion of a “stockpile” of Bitcoins. Trump committed to this in his pre-election speech in Nashville, saying “I am announcing that if I am elected, it will be the policy of my administration, United States of America, to keep 100% of all the bitcoin the US government currently holds or acquires into the future. […] This will serve in effect as the core of the strategic national bitcoin stockpile.”

This isn’t what I’m talking about at all. (In fact, I’m strongly supportive of the stockpile idea). I’m talking about the US government actually acquiring additional Bitcoins. Proposals range from acquiring ~210,000 BTC (BPI), to 1 million BTC (Lummis), to 4 million BTC (RFK Jr).

Senator Lummis, Michael Saylor, and the Bitcoin Policy Institute (among many others) have been talking about a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.”

Under Senator Lummis’ framework, the US Government would acquire 1 million BTC over a five year period, and hold them for at least 20 years. The stated logic of the reserve is to “strengthen the financial condition of the United States, providing a hedge against economic uncertainty and monetary instability.” Lummis’ bill specifically says that the SBR would “strengthen the position of the dollar,” and compares it to the role of gold in prior monetary eras.

It's important to distinguish these proposals from the notion of acquiring Bitcoin in a sovereign wealth fund, as George Selgin does. As far as I can tell, none of the main advocates for the SBR are treating it as an asset in a state investment portfolio – they are explicitly connecting Bitcoin to the dollar, and suggesting that Bitcoin will actually strengthen the dollar. This means that they envision a monetary system where Bitcoin plays some kind of active role – for now, playing the same role as FX reserves, but perhaps in the future, as the actual basis for a new commodity standard, like Bretton Woods I. (For those who think I’m exaggerating, you simply have to read the words written by the advocates of the SBR itself.)

To be clear, I’m not contradicting the notion of simply holding on to existing seized Bitcoin (which I think is the policy Trump will ultimately settle on), nor am I even against the notion of putting Bitcoin in a sovereign wealth fund (although the US doesn’t have one). I’m instead arguing against the idea of creating a “strategic” reserve of Bitcoins and giving it any sort of monetary role.

A Bitcoin Reserve would undermine, not support, the dollar

My main, and most important point, is that a Bitcoin reserve would not bolster the dollar. Unlike other countries, the US issues the global reserve currency. Other nations can toy around with acquiring Bitcoin, and indeed a few are.

It might make sense, if you are Russia or Iran, to consider an un-seizable asset in your FX reserves, especially after the US confiscated Russia’s treasuries in 2022. But the US does not need to hedge its exposure to the dollar, because it itself issues the dollar.

Acquiring Bitcoins and assigning them a monetary role—whether as FX reserves or something more significant—would imply the US is losing confidence in the current dollar-based system.

The US government explicitly signaling a move away from the inconvertible fiat standard would throw the system into chaos. Right now, the dollar is “backed” by America’s role as the steward of global trade, the robustness of the US economy, the solvency of the US Government, the ability of the US to project hard and soft power, the depth of US securities markets, and the ubiquity of the dollar in global trade and finance.

If the US government were to make an abrupt shift and say “we’re reconsidering this whole Washington Consensus thing,” markets would start to wonder what it is exactly that the government knows. Are they planning a default? Are they going to disband the Bretton Woods institutions? Are they projecting enormous deficits and sky-high rates?

To be clear, I don’t think the government is considering any of these things, but I do think bond traders would be immediately concerned.

“But we’re not talking about moving to some kind of neo-gold standard, with the dollar being a weight of Bitcoin. We’re just talking about buying some Bitcoin and putting it on the US balance sheet,” you might protest.

This isn’t the way markets would see it. If Bitcoin on the balance sheet serves only as a symbol, it would be an extraordinarily expensive one. One million Bitcoins would cost $100 billion at current prices – and naturally, if the US government was known to be a price-insensitive buyer, the US could end up acquiring the coins at $1,000,000 per coin – spending $1T on the reserve. This is an incredibly meaningful expense which should be spent on other things.

I would suspect that the market would treat the Bitcoin purchases not as symbolic, but rather as the first step in a process of returning to a new commodity standard for the dollar with Bitcoin, rather than gold, as the backing.

Austin Campbell says that this would “accelerate the demise of the dollar, as it would signal to the world that the US does not intend to manage its fiscal house well and will likely re-denominate in BTC at some point.”

Let’s say the probability of a Lummis-style SBR actually started to converge to 1. You would know, because financial markets would enter a meltdown. Interest rates would spike dramatically as investors in US debt would start to wonder if the US was considering a hard break with Bretton Woods II.

The cost of capital for everyone on the planet would rise sharply. Inflation would likely ramp up. A massive redistribution of wealth would occur, as financial markets tumbled, and Bitcoin skyrocketed.

Put another way, the US considering a near term abandonment of the current, relatively stable monetary system and replacing it with a monetary standard not based on gold, but a highly volatile, emerging asset, would cause utter panic among its creditors.

In my view, if we even got close to a Lummis-style reserve, markets would anticipatorily start to go berserk, and Trump would be forced to withdraw the policy.

While BSR advocates may claim not to be advocating a full neo-gold standard with Bitcoin as the basis, their stated intentions (again, simply read their proposals) are aggressive enough that they would seriously spook the Treasury markets if the reserve came anywhere near to being a reality.

An SBR would be politically imprudent

It’s obvious to me that any piece of legislation proposing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would be a complete non-starter in Congress. I’m speaking from first-hand experience having visited a number of pro-crypto members of Congress in Washington mere weeks ago. Congress is finely poised, with the Republicans having a slim majority. They couldn’t jam something through on a partisan basis, nor is it clear to me that the Republicans would even vote as a single bloc on this anyway.

Proponents of the reserve insist that the executive can find the funds for a reserve without passing a law. Certainly, there are ways in which the executive could spend money without prior authorization from Congress. Bitcoiners have proposed a variety of methods. But these completely miss the point. A Bitcoin reserve imposed by executive fiat would be imposed undemocratically, and would likely be undone in subsequent administrations if not voted on by Congress.

Think of it like this. The executive could decide unilaterally to wage a costly foreign war and find ways to appropriate the cash through various esoteric schemes. But such an undertaking would be incredibly unpopular, as the people would rightly consider it highly undemocratic. The balance of power in our Republic specifies that the President acts, but Congress authorizes (and appropriates). We don’t have a tyrant in charge.

Because Congress controls the purse strings, American citizens are effectively consulted for major spending decisions. The President should consult Congress (and by extension, the American people) for any major outlay. And a Bitcoin reserve would certainly fall into that category.

“But Trump has a mandate,” you might say. But this isn’t true. He doesn’t have a mandate to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. He didn’t campaign on this. It didn’t come up in the debates or meaningfully in the press.

He talked about a Bitcoin stockpile (as in, holding existing seized Bitcoins) in his speech in Nashville, not the additional purchase of Bitcoins for the government. Trump trying to find an end-around around Congress for the purpose of spending government funds on Bitcoin would be supremely politically unpopular. It would exhaust most of his finite political capital. And Trump has an agenda that’s far broader than just Bitcoin stuff. I expect that this political logic will eventually become clear to him, even if he is momentarily excited by the notion of a reserve.

The other problem with forcing through Bitcoin purchases by executive order (assuming this is even doable) is that something that is easily done is easily undone. If such a policy were unpopular – and I believe it would be – a future Democratic administration would undoubtedly sell off the reserve immediately, causing chaos in Bitcoin markets.

What Bitcoiners should want is a democratic consensus that a Bitcoin reserve or stockpile is a good idea, and to effectuate this policy through bipartisan legislation, or even a constitutional amendment. Generally, meaningful monetary changes are done through legislation, like the 1934 Gold Reserve Act, or the Gold Clause Resolution in 1977 following Nixon’s suspension of Bretton Woods I.

Bitcoiners should want a Bitcoin Reserve to be enduring, rather than a flash in the pan. An executive-order based policy done by fiat by the new Trump admin would not last.

US Government purchases of Bitcoin would massively alienate the general public

Without a doubt, an SBR policy would be seen as a massive wealth transfer from US taxpayers to already wealthy Bitcoiners. This would be massively regressive and unpopular. Bitcoiners are a relatively small group. The Fed found in 2022 that only 8 percent of US adults hold any crypto as an investment, with wealthier individuals being over-represented in that cohort.

Even if the SBR was funded in a kind of fiscally “neutral” way (for instance, by revaluing gold to its market rate, and selling off some of the gold), it would still be seen as an undeserved handout for Bitcoiners. Those funds could be used for anything – and they would be appropriated to Bitcoiners.

A major monetary change which benefits a tiny group of Americans would turn everyone who doesn’t hold Bitcoin against the Bitcoiners. And I doubt many Americans would see the logic of the SBR, since there is no apparent crisis with the US dollar at present.

Attitudes might be different in ten or twenty years if de-dollarization accelerates, the US enters some kind of default situation, rates skyrocket, many other countries start to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset. But that’s not the world we live in today.

If you recall, student loan forgiveness was fairly unpopular because it was seen as a bailout for middle and upper class Americans who had the means to go to college and get worthless liberal arts degrees. (Interestingly, Elizabeth Warren proposed a unilateral outlay of $640 billion without Congressional approval to extinguish student loans back in 2019/20. I doubt Bitcoiners would want to open that particular Overton window.)

Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan would have benefited around 43 million Americans, a larger group than Bitcoin holders. The furore over a Bitcoin reserve would be far worse.

Right now, the financial world is warming up to Bitcoin, due to gradual and organic adoption. A reserve would pit ordinary Americans against Bitcoiners, which would seriously complicate the trajectory of Bitcoin’s adoption.

A Bitcoin reserve has no “strategic” purpose

The actual term SBR is puzzling, specifically the “strategic” component. The US government holds a number of commodities for genuinely strategic purposes. Most importantly, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a means to stabilize oil markets.

Biden, to his credit, actually sold a lot of our oil off during high prices and bought it back later, turning a profit. We also hold or have held in reserve quantities of heating oil, gas, grain, dairy products, rare minerals like cobalt, titanium, tungsten, helium, and medical equipment.

The common thread is that these commodities have some kind of instrumental use, with the government having an interest in maintaining them for emergencies, or market stabilization.

Bitcoin by contrast has no industrial use. The US government does not “need” Bitcoin to trade at any specific price level. It makes no difference to the government if Bitcoin trades at $1 or $1 million. Bitcoin also doesn’t generate cash flows, so a reserve would not help with paying interest on the debt in the future.

The only “strategic” purpose Bitcoin could serve would be equivalent to that served by the US government’s existing reserve assets, such as gold and foreign currency – which is to say, none. As George Selgin painstakingly explains, the US actually has modest FX reserves, relatively speaking, compared with other developed nations. This is because the dollar is a truly free-floating currency and the US does not manage the peg at all. The roughly 8130 tons of gold the US holds have had no relevant use whatsoever since 1971. They are purely vestigial and just held for tradition’s sake. The last major interventions to manage the exchange rate of the dollar came in the 1980s.

Bitcoiners discussing the Bitcoin reserve idea tend to vastly overrate the role of gold in the dollar system. Ultimately, the US government’s balance sheet scarcely matters when it comes to the ubiquity of the dollar system.

The things that really support the dollar are:

• US GDP growth, creating tax liabilities which can only be extinguished in dollars
• The credibility and stability of the US government and monetary policy
• US capital markets being the most attractive and liquid in the world, making them a sink for global investment (in dollars)
• The network effects that come from dollar dominance in trade settlement, commodity markets, FX markets, and debt markets
• America’s continued role as the global hegemon and guarantor of global trade and security
  
  

Gold – and Bitcoin – are simply not relevant in the American monetary equation today. Perhaps they will one day have a role to play, but the current inconvertible standard is not based in any way on commodity reserves.

There’s no argument for an SBR which uniquely specifies Bitcoin

Why a reserve of Bitcoins? Why not something else? Bitcoiners have yet to provide a compelling answer. Bitcoin is worth a lot (~$2 trillion), is globally liquid, and is held by many individuals, you might say. Well, Bitcoin isn’t unique in this regard. Is there an argument you could make in support of a Bitcoin reserve that would also not apply to, say, Apple or NVIDIA stock?

“Well,” you might say, “these are claims on the cashflows of companies, and not bearer assets. Bitcoin is special, because it cannot be seized or interfered with.” Presumably, though, the US is not at risk of having the assets and IP of Apple or NVIDIA confiscated by itself. This would be an argument against another nation acquiring a reserve of the equity of a US-based company. But we’re talking about the US government.

There’s also no argument for a reserve of Bitcoin which does not include gold. If you want to remonetize a hard asset and use it as the basis for your currency system, gold is the obvious choice. If we want to “get ahead” of other nations in terms of reserve assets (a common argument made in favor of the SBR), gold is perfect, since we own more of it than anyone else. Simply re-monetize gold (re-price it from its official price to its current market price), and we are already ahead.

Gold is also a “bearer” asset, in that ownership is not a claim on anything other than simple possession of bars and ingots. If Bitcoiners are successful in persuading the US government that we should exit the Bretton Woods II standard, and move back to a pre-1971 commodity based standard, gold would genuinely be a better choice. It has a longer track record, more people own it (so remonetizing it would alienate fewer people), it’s worth about nine times more than Bitcoin, it has much lower volatility, and we already own it, so monetizing it would be far cheaper (if not free).

If you disfavor gold because it’s not a “high growth” asset like Bitcoin, then you could consider fast-growing (and productive) assets like NVIDIA, Apple, or Microsoft equity. If we’re considering what commodities the US might invest in for strategic purposes, my first choice would be AI datacenters or chip manufacturing. Those serve an obvious strategic purpose and would also be economically productive. However, we are then getting into discussions of using Treasury or Fed resources for “industrial policy”.

Most conservatives and libertarians are suspicious of top-down government apportionment of resources in this manner, preferring to let the private sector sort it out. I wasn’t a fan of Biden’s massive infrastructure spending, which I felt was extremely wasteful, and for that reason I don’t support further incursion into the private sector by the government, especially not via naked dollar issuance.

Typically, the US government doesn’t really intervene in markets with its monetary tools beyond setting rates; its role is setting the rules of the road and keeping the system stable, not aggressively deploying government funds into commodities for day trading. (This is why many were skeptical of Biden’s releases from the strategic petroleum reserve.) We are a markets-based capitalist economy, not a centrally planned one. It’s not the government’s job to manage a commodity hedge fund.

This is left to the private sector, with the government only stepping in when there’s some immediate strategic necessity to bolster reserves of a specific vital commodity. At the end of the day, the US government still benefits if the US private sector makes investments in commodities and assets that appreciate, via capital gains taxes.

I would trust the fund managers and capital allocators to do this rather than bureaucrats.

There’s no argument for acquiring an SBR today

Why create a reserve of Bitcoin today? What’s special about the present moment that makes a Bitcoin reserve an imperative right now? Nothing in particular. The dollar isn’t collapsing – in fact it’s thriving. The DXY has been rallying for the last 15 years or so – to the possible detriment of US manufacturing, and foreign countries with dollar liabilities.

The US is growing its GDP relative to the rest of the world, especially Europe, which is in slow decline, and China, which is dealing with a serious economic crisis for the first time since Deng. American equities are trouncing the rest of the world, with the US stock market accounting for ~50% of the global total. There’s nothing to indicate these trends won’t continue.

“But the dollar is falling relative to hard assets, like gold,” you might say. “And its purchasing power is falling, as evidenced by the relatively high and variable inflation regime we find ourselves in.” But there’s no apparent crisis in the dollar.

Rates are a bit higher than they’ve been in the last decade, but no one is panicking about the US government’s solvency. The dollar’s share of global FX reserves has fallen a bit in the last couple decades, but there’s no real crisis there either. The dollar is still utterly dominant globally, with no likely challenger evident anywhere. Neither the moribund Euro nor the (managed) Renminbi have the ability or the ambition to challenge the Dollar as the global reserve asset of choice.

The only reason the SBR is being discussed seriously today is due to Trump’s election victory. Bitcoiners have latched on to this for political expediency reasons in the hope that he might not only usher in more favorable regulation, but actually become a buyer of Bitcoin at the state level.

But Bitcoin is not anywhere near sufficiently large or liquid to make any kind of dent in the US’ reserve portfolio, and it certainly isn’t ready to be a monetary good like gold under the gold standard. It’s only worth ~$2 trillion today, compared to gold’s ~$17 trillion. Bitcoin is still extremely volatile, and clearly unsuitable to be a unit of account (if we were to graduate to some kind of Bitcoin-denominated dollar system).

Bitcoiners should simply be more patient. Bitcoin has done tremendously well over its short 15 years of life and is becoming a global monetary asset of consequence. It has undergone a full institutionalization with the ETF being a final major ratification.

Over time, its volatility will temper (and its market cap and liquidity will grow), and it will become a more suitable asset for governments to consider in their portfolios. But as of right now, it doesn’t have a meaningful role to play in America’s monetary system.

Careful what you wish for

The truth is, there’s no urgency to establish any sort of reserve. The US has nothing to lose by simply waiting. If Bitcoin continues to monetize and ultimately challenges gold, and other nations adopt Bitcoin as part of their sovereign wealth funds, or even start to “back” their currencies with it, the US has plenty of time to act.

US institutions, investors, and individuals hold more Bitcoin than anyone else. The US Government has ample means to acquire Bitcoin at any point along the journey, should they decide that they really covet it.

They could acquire Bitcoin via open market purchases. More likely, in my opinion, they would go for the much cheaper option of setting a price cap, banning private ownership, and forcing conversion of US-held Bitcoins, as they did with gold in 1933.

They could also simply expropriate the Bitcoins held on domestic platforms – US-based custodians are the biggest by far. They could nationalize miners. They could hike capital gains taxes and insist they be paid in-kind. They could arrest individuals known to hold a lot of Bitcoin and expropriate their funds. They could put resources into developing quantum computing good enough to steal the ~4m coins that are quantum vulnerable.

“Wait… not like that.” But that’s the trouble. You don’t get to decide the manner in which the US government acquires Bitcoins. If you are successful at persuading them of the virtues of Bitcoin, and they really set their heart on a reserve, they’ll do it through whatever means are most politically expedient.

This is not necessarily consistent with what is best for American bitcoiners. If it’s a choice between buying 1 million BTC at $1 million/coin (for $1 trillion dollars), or simply confiscating 1 million coins through some other method, they will go for the more efficient method.

If not Bitcoin, how should we shore up the dollar?

The long-term solvency of the US government is certainly a concern. Debt to GDP is near the top of the historical range at 120%. Interest costs as a share of GDP are at a 60-year high and going higher. Federal net outlays as a share of GDP are at the top end of the range over the last century, exceeded only by the level during and after WWII.

While the deficit has declined from its highs during Covid, it’s still elevated, and gives us very little breathing room if a recession hits. The reckless spending of the last four years (and frankly, there was bipartisan consensus on this) led to a burst of inflation, which we are still dealing with.

The dollar’s share of global FX reserves has declined from 70% to 60% over the last quarter century (though no other individual currency has gained meaningful share). And certain buyers of the debt are now leery of purchasing US Treasuries, after the US confiscated Russia’s reserves in 2022.

All of this points to a potential long-term issue with the dollar, although no crisis seems to be imminent. This might change if we experience a recession and the government finds itself unable to engage in massive stimulus spending, given that rates are already fairly high, and we are running a significant deficit.

If it were up to me, I would do the following:

• Increase GDP growth through any means possible. This means allowing for cheaper energy, fostering high growth industries like AI, and generally unshackling the private sector
  
  
• Slashing the size of government expenditures, which are far more wasteful than equivalent capital deployed in private markets, to reduce the deficit
  
  
• Limit political intervention into dollar markets, as in, realize that the sanctions-making power of the dollar trades off against its international usefulness
  
  
• Allow inflation to run hot for a while to reduce the debt load in real terms

The good news is that incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s 3-3-3 plan basically does this. No Bitcoin needed. 

This is a guest post by Nic Carter. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Of course, I’m sure you’ve heard that there are 21 million bitcoin – and this is true, the Bitcoin protocol allows for only “21 million bitcoin” to be created, yet these larger denominations can be subdivided into 100 million sub-units each.

Call them whatever you want, there are only 2.1 quadrillion monetary units in the protocol.

This dollars and cents differential has long been the subject of debate – in the time of Satoshi, Bitcoin’s creator, the dual conventions, Bitcoin having both a bulk denomination, and a smaller unit, was not much of a concern. There were questions about whether the software would work at all, and bitcoin were so worthless, selling them in bulk was the only rational option.

Rehashing this debate is BIP 21Q, a proposal to the Bitcoin users authored by John Carvalho, founder of Synonym, creator of the Pubky social media platform, and a tenured contributor whose work dates back to the days of the influential Bitcoin-assets collective.

In short, the BIP proposes that network actors – the various wallets and exchanges – change how Bitcoin denominations are displayed, with the smallest unit of the protocol renamed “bitcoins,” as opposed to “satoshis,” as they have been commonly called.

Here are the specifics of the BIP:

Redefinition of the Unit:

• Internally, the smallest indivisible unit remains unchanged.
• Historically, 1 BTC = 100,000,000 base units. Under this proposal, "1 bitcoin" equals that smallest unit.
• What was previously referred to as "1 BTC" now corresponds to 100 million bitcoins under the new definition.

Terminology:

• The informal terms "satoshi" or "sat" are deprecated.
• All references, interfaces, and documentation SHOULD refer to the base integer unit simply as "bitcoin."

Display and Formatting:

• Applications SHOULD present values as whole integers without decimals.
• Example:
• Old display: 0.00010000 BTC
• New display: 10000 BTC (or ₿10000)

Unsurprisingly, the debate around the BIP has been hostile. For one, it’s not a technical BIP, though this is not a requirement of the BIP process. Suffice to say, it’s perhaps the most general BIP that has been proposed under the BIP process to date, as it mainly deals with market conventions and user onboarding logic, not any changes to the software rules.

However, I have to say, I find the proposal compelling. Nik Hoffman, our News Editor, does not, preferring to stick to the market affirmative.

Yet, I think the proposal raises relevant questions: why should new users be forced to compute their Bitcoin balances using only decimals? Surely this has the adverse side effect of making commerce difficult – it’s simply antithetical to how people think and act today.

Also, in terms of savings, at an $100,000 BTC price, it isn’t exactly compelling to think you could be spending a whole year earning 1 BTC, though that may be.

Indeed, there have been various debates for all kinds of units – mBTC, uBTC – that play around with the dollars and cents convention, but Carvalho here is wisely skipping to the end, preferring just to rip the band-aid off. $1 would buy 1,000 bitcoins under his proposal.

What’s to like here, and I argued this during a Lugano debate on the topic in 2023, is that it keeps both the larger BTC denomination and the smaller unit, now bitcoins. They are both important, and serve different functions.

My argument then was that having a larger denomination like BTC (100 million bitcoins) is important. If there was no “BTC unit,” the press and financial media would be faced to reckon that “1 bitcoin” is still worth less than 1 cent. 

How much mainstream coverage and interest do we think there would be? I’d bet not very much.

In this way, BIP 21Q is a best-of-both-worlds approach.

The financial world, press, and media can continue championing the meteoric rise in value of “BTC,” while everyday users can get rid of decimals and complex calculations, trading the only real Bitcoin unit guaranteed to exist in perpetuity. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

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Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

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Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset's volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

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Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

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Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

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One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market's largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

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While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What's Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

“The Potential Profit per Token graph shows the potential profit that holders could make per token if they sold at a specific time,” Whale Alert’s website explains. Whale Alert has further calculations on this metric that can be found here.

To put this in perspective, this is more than the average American salary in 2024, which is $62,027. Imagine watching your savings grow and outperform your own yearly salary just for owning one bitcoin.

Every day, you trade hours of your life at work in exchange for money ( fiat for most). You consistently work harder and harder for that currency that is always depreciating in purchasing power, causing you to work longer hours to make up for it.

But bitcoin flips that dynamic on its head. With bitcoin, you are working (trading your time in exchange for money) and then watching that money grow in value as opposed to losing value.

People can then utilize that extra purchasing power bitcoin affords them to buy a home or car, afford university tuition, work less and/or spend more time with their family, etc. Your options for how you want to spend your time and money open up a lot more as a result of buying and holding bitcoin, and, to me, that is true financial freedom.

This is just another reason why using bitcoin as a savings vehicle is so important. It allows people become financially free and secure their future.

And this is just the beginning. Over time, bitcoin is poised to rise even higher than its current $100,000 price tag, giving investors the opportunity to increase their purchasing power even further and to therefore let them have more time to follow their passions and interests.

And all you have to do is bitcoin consistently, secure it, and HODL. Even if you aren't holding a whole bitcoin, you're still benefitting the dynamic of its improving your purchasing power over time and the more you can add to your stack, the more this will be the case.

Every person on the planet can now create their own bitcoin reserve, watch it grow, and choose how they want to spend the time they’ve freed up for themselves.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Introducing Passport Prime – Your Personal Security Platform!

We’re thrilled to present Passport Prime, the world’s first personal security platform designed to secure your Bitcoin and your entire digital life.

Think: A Swiss Army Knife for your online security. pic.twitter.com/3HH2eG7vhU

— FOUNDATION (@FOUNDATIONdvcs) December 18, 2024

The device offers a broad range of features that not only help users secure the keys to their bitcoin but other digital information, as well.

Features

For starters, the Passport Prime offers the same bitcoin wallet capabilities as the company’s second generation Passport device, including multisig functionality and temporary seed phrases.

Beyond Bitcoin-related security, the Passport Prime also helps you to store other sensitive digital data.

Its 2FA Codes app lets users store 2FA codes offline, while its Security Keys app serves as a replacement for Yubikeys and allows users to create multiple security keys for use with NFC or USB.

What is more, the device offers an encrypted flash drive. Users can store up to 50 GB of data on the device. And as a means to keep your data private, the Airlock feature in the File Browser app lets users only access selected files when the device is plugged into a phone or computer.

The device also has its own custom operating system — KeyOS — which enables apps to run in their own sandboxes while the OS manages permissions.

Pushing The Hardware Wallet Industry Forward

Earlier this year, Foundation’s co-founder and CEO told Bitcoin Magazine he was looking to create the iPhone of Bitcoin hardware. The Passport Prime is the closest Foundation has come to this ideal yet.

“The hardware wallet industry has been coasting for years, failing to deliver any meaningful innovation and unable to respond to digital assets’ rapidly evolving utility and use cases,” said Zach Herbert, co-founder and CEO of Foundation in a press release.

“Wallets have become crypto’s weakest link: they are difficult to onboard to, complex to use, and increasingly insecure for a range of modern blockchain transactions,” he added.

“Passport Prime is the first device of its kind, a Personal Security Platform that’s fit for the future decentralized economy, making it simple to safeguard all your private keys in one offline device, and sign every kind of transaction or contract with complete peace of mind.”

Third-Party Apps Welcome

By approximately mid-2025, developers will be able to build third-party apps that will run on KeyOS. In other words, developers will be able to list their own apps in Foundation’s App Catalogue.

The first of these third-party apps will be produced by Cake Wallet and will enable users to more privately transact using Bitcoin, Monero and other cryptocurrencies.

Dynamic, Yet Simple and Secure

Foundation claims that setting up and using the Passport Prime will be easy, despite its various functionalities.

Users can set the device up using Envoy, Foundation’s native app that provides guidance for the set up process and that connects to the device via QuantamLink Bluetooth.

QuantamLink Bluetooth is enabled by a dedicated Bluetooth chip embedded in the Passport Prime that can only send and receive messages that are already encrypted using quantum-resistance technology.

Users can also back up their seed via a 2-of-3 Shamir Secret Sharing configuration splits the seed into three pieces — two stored on physical cards and one stored in the Envoy mobile app.

Details

The device will retail for $299 and ship by Q2 2025.

The device comes in two different colors — Arctic Copper and Midnight Bronze — and it’s both completely open-source and manufactured in the United States.

Learn more about the product here.

As a condition of a new IMF loan package, President Bukele of El Salvador has had to concede three aspects of the Bitcoin Law passed in 2021:

• A legal tender mandate requiring businesses to accept Bitcoin
• Shutting down Chivo, the state run wallet and on/off ramp service
• No longer accepting tax payments in bitcoin

Ultimately everything except the last one is a positive change. Legal tender laws are ultimately coercive, and in my opinion shouldn’t exist. Chivo was a buggy mess, and alternatives exist such as Blink. The only negative (arguably), is the state no longer accepting bitcoin for tax payments.

People are losing their minds on Twitter over these changes, framing things as Bukele selling out, showing himself not to be a Bitcoiner, etc. There is a lot of people demonstrating an attitude that shows they feel misled, or betrayed.

Well here is a wake up call. Bukele was never going to be first and foremost a champion of Bitcoin above all else. He is the leader of a nation of around six million people. That was always going to be his first priority. If it wasn’t, he would be a terrible leader.

El Salvador is a country plagued by poverty, previously by violent organized crime. It was the murder capital of the world. Infrastructure was decaying and dysfunctional, people could not participate in the economy without paying protection money to violent gangs like MS-13. Massive amounts of the population had moved abroad to escape these things.

Bitcoin is nothing but a tool, one among many, for Bukele to deal with these problems. And that’s all it should be to the leader of a nation. Bukele’s reason for being in power isn’t to pump our bags, or to advance the cause of Bitcoin, it is to help the Salvadoran people.

When Bitcoin isn’t the best way to do that, he should acknowledge that. When deprioritizing Bitcoin is what is in the best interest of his people, he should do that. Regardless of how you feel about governments, or nation states, that is the job of a leader. To look after the best interests of his people.

That is what he is doing here, and anyone who would expect him to do otherwise is deluded and narcissistic. Bukele is not the President of Bitcoin, he is the President of El Salvador. The Salvadoran people are who he is accountable to, not a bunch of clowns on the internet. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

And his efforts are starting to bear fruit.

On December 11, 2024, the Vancouver City Council greenlit a motion Mayor Sim prepared to start making Vancouver a more Bitcoin-friendly city.

The motion directs city staff to explore the ideas of Vancouver establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve as well as accepting taxes and city fees in bitcoin.

In my conversation with Mayor Sim, we discussed the passing of this motion as well as some of his deeper philosophical thoughts about Bitcoin.

We also touched on what Bitcoin adoption in Vancouver would look like in a perfect world, his own journey down the proverbial Bitcoin rabbit hole and why Bitcoin can bring financial hope to the citizens of Vancouver at a point in time when many are struggling to make ends meet.

The Vancouver City Council recently passed your motion to make Vancouver a more Bitcoin-friendly city.

On a personal level, though, if you could wave a magic wand and enable whatever level of Bitcoin adoption you see fit in Vancouver, what would that look like?

I've got to give you a caveat here. These are my own personal views. We have a pretty incredible team at the City of Vancouver, and they've been tasked to explore. So, it's not as if I can really influence the team and tell them “You have to do this and that.”

In a perfect world, the first thing we would do is add to a strategic reserve. The second thing would be allowing people to transact with bitcoin without triggering capital gains tax events and to accept payments in the form of bitcoin. Tax regulation across not just Canada, but in the U.S. and a lot of other jurisdictions, still hasn't caught up, so every time you transact with bitcoin, there’s a capital gains tax fee, which is very cumbersome.

The third thing is that we start the conversation and we bust the myths around narratives like Bitcoin is bad for the environment. That's all hogwash, right? Bitcoin is actually going to help us save the environment.

Plus, it provides us with an immutable record and it actually adds to a level of transparency we've never seen in the history of humankind. Having that incorporated into our systems would be great.

You spoke about this process of educating people about Bitcoin on Natalie Brunell’s show. You said you “shower them with love and then you hit them with facts.” Can you give an example of what this looks like?

There's a lot of resistance with Bitcoin, especially as it pertains to its perceived effects on the environment. People hear this narrative that it's bad for the environment, and it's like, “Well, wait a second…”

I'm an environmentalist, and I know that if you force organizations across the planet to do stuff that they aren't incentivized to do, nothing's going to happen. Whereas if you incentivize them — if you build in a reward system — it’s amazing.

So, what do we know? Well, we flare natural gas as a by-product of oil production, and if we actually capture that and repurpose it for Bitcoin mining, it is actually good for the environment. Same with capturing methane that seeps from the ground.

Also, with alternative or green energy sources, be it wind power or solar power, where the economics often don't pan out to build these projects, you provide someone with a guaranteed customer in the form of Bitcoin miners, and the economics work and these things get built. So, it's net positive for the environment.

There’s also this false narrative that nefarious things happen with Bitcoin. That's garbage, right? Cash is untraceable. With Bitcoin, we're talking about an immutable record where you can see every single transaction since the beginning of time and you can catch people at the on and off ramps.

Some of the narratives are actually the complete opposite of reality, and so we have to counter these narratives.

Based on my experience, it's easy to teach someone something, while it's a lot harder for people to unlearn, and we are in the process of helping people unlearn what they've learned.

You have referred to Bitcoin as the greatest invention in human history. Could you expand on that?

Our money is broken. People can't use it to store their energy into the future. We're on this rinse and repeat cycle. In Ray Dalio's book The Changing World Order, he talks about the rise and fall of the Dutch empire, the rise and fall of the British empire, the rise and, as he puts it, fall of the U.S. empire. If you agree with Dalio’s perspective, the point is that the money's broken.

We do not have a reserve currency that's ever lasted. We keep repeating history. But Bitcoin changes all that. As we all know, you can't mess with it, and you can't manipulate it. It's a game-changer and when we finally get onto the bitcoin standard — I think it's a matter of when, not if — it's going to change how humans interact with each other and how nation states evolve.

You just cited one of Ray Dalio’s books, and I’ve heard you discuss how you’ve also read books like The Bitcoin Standard and Layered Money. You’re also a friend of Jeff Booth’s. With all the reading you’ve done and the conversations you’ve had with Jeff, did you end up having a lightbulb moment with Bitcoin or was it more of a gradual learning process?

Well, I had the opposite of the lightbulb moment when my son Mitchell came up to me and said “Dad, I want to buy bitcoin.” And I was like, “You touch that shit, and I'm going to punch you in the throat.” Obviously, I wasn’t going to do that.

Then, I started seeing more of it and had conversations with Jeff. So, I started to look into it, read a bunch about it and went to a couple of conferences. My journey was very similar to a lot of other people’s. I was completely against it and then I warmed up to it and eventually became an evangelist.

I can't point to any one point where it was like, “Wow, there you go” and I went 180 degrees the other way. I do remember though, I made my first $500 purchase of bitcoin on November the 14th, 2020. The reason it took me so long was I had to learn how to use the app on which I bought the bitcoin. It was all clunky — just a pain in the butt.

But I remember that day, because when I finally bought it I thought, “Did I miss out?” I think I bought it at like 16 or 17 grand and it had run from like seven or eight grand the month before. I was like, “Did I miss it?” I remember Jeff saying, “No, you’re still super early; we're all still super early.”

You’ve talked about how unaffordable housing in Vancouver is. Does bitcoin fix this?

Yes. Let me give you an example. We have a small studio rental up in Whistler (a town north of Vancouver). When we bought it, it would have cost 17.2 bitcoin. That's about four years ago. In terms of dollars, the property is up 36%, but in terms of bitcoin, it's down something like 85%. As of today, it costs like 3.3 bitcoin to buy it.

By the way, I'm not giving investment advice. I'm just talking about a theoretical, if this plays out how it could. If at some point in the not so distant future, you'll be able to buy a house in Vancouver for a bitcoin, what that means is you can literally buy a house for about US$106,000 or about CA$150,000 if you bought a bitcoin today.

I'm not telling people to take out a loan to buy bitcoin — very far from it. Go seek financial advice. But if you believe bitcoin’s price will continue to appreciate, you can literally buy a house for CA$150,000 in the near future by buying a bitcoin right now.

You've brought Bitcoin, a taboo subject, into the fold as Mayor of Vancouver, and you’ve said that doing so might lead to your not getting re-elected. Have you ever considered that the opposite might be true, that maybe by embracing Bitcoin the people of Vancouver will want to re-elect you?

I'm not too concerned about that. I have no desire to be a premier or prime minister. I'm not a politician, even though I'm sitting in this role, which I really honor, value and take very seriously. But the goal was never to be popular. The goal was never to get re-elected. The goal was to do what I believed is right for the future of the City of Vancouver.

And so I couldn't sit back any longer and ignore this because I truly believe that this sets the city up for the next hundred years. Am I right? We don't know, but we have a pretty good feeling, and I truly believe in it.

I think voters, residents — it doesn't matter what side of the political spectrum you sit on — are sick of politicians who do stuff just to get re-elected. They want people to do what they believe is right, and I believe this is right. If we don't get re-elected because of it, I can personally hold my head up high and say, “You know what? We stuck to our values and we did what's right.” If it works out, great. I actually think it's going to work out, though.

It seems like a progressive city like Vancouver — the first city in Canada to have a Bitcoin ATM — should be in favor of Bitcoin. However, the previous mayor tried to ban Bitcoin ATMs in the city. Was there a reaction from the Vancouver community when the mayor did this?

I didn't follow it too closely at the time, so I don't know. I can't comment on it. What I can comment on is we do have a lot of politicians who will make policy up based on virtue signaling as opposed to data. We're a data driven administration, and we care about the future prosperity of our city.

I think the distinction here is we choose to have the most impact — we're more concerned about the steak than the sizzle. If someone can make an argument on why this is a bad idea based on data, we'll listen to it. We might have it wrong, but I can tell you no one has been able to attack our Bitcoin stance with data.

Bitcoin can be kind of difficult to use technically. So, let's say, in a perfect world, maybe Bitcoin becomes legal tender in Vancouver at some point, or if there's just greater adoption of it, do you worry about the technical difficulties associated with using Bitcoin? Would the Vancouver city government ever get involved in educating its Vancouver residents about Bitcoin?

It's not one of the core services we provide as a city, so I don't see us going down the educational rabbit hole. We'll leave it up to other experts.

If the industry makes Bitcoin simpler to use, so many more groups and individuals will just hop on the bandwagon. And you know it's coming because there are a lot of people working on this right now.

I'm not an expert, but when I, when I hear about some of the things that are happening on Layer 2s and the Lightning Network, I see a future where this is seamless. When people go into a Walgreens and they buy a candy bar, they won’t think about how they're paying with Bitcoin. All the plumbing underneath will happen without them knowing, and it's going to revolutionize the planet.

You've done a handful of interviews on this topic thus far. Is there anything that we in the media haven’t asked you yet that you’d like to discuss or point out?

Yes, I’d like to make a general call out and not just for the city of Vancouver. It's for every single city and province and state and jurisdiction and canton, and country on the planet.

We have to get the education out there, which is still a hard challenge. Some people in the media have made the comment that what we're doing right now is more virtue signaling, because we have the hope of making this happen. This is incorrect, though.

We need Bitcoin supporters to start pumping the true narrative of why bitcoin is a sound financial asset. It's the best performing asset in the last 16 years on the planet. And we're not traders, so if you're not looking to day trade, all of the volatility doesn't matter.

We need to start getting that narrative out, but not from me, from the community. We need to let our elected officials know this because they're not going to do anything until people hit them with data and tell our politicians that they want this.

We're doing this because we believe in it. We want to get ahead of it. We want to set up the city for the next 100 years, and that's why we're willing to take political risk to do this. But we need help. So, if your audience can help us push that narrative with our provincial government and in their jurisdictions, as well, that would be great.

If people come onboard and see how bitcoin can reduce some of the financial stress in their lives, do you think Vancouver transforms into a pro-Bitcoin city relatively quickly?

Yes.

I go back to my sister-in-law, who if she watches the video she's gonna punch me in the face. About 13 years ago, she was afraid of getting an iPhone. She didn't understand the technology. It was a mental block.

Then, she jumped on the bandwagon like everyone else, because all her buddies had iPhones. It's ridiculous now to think that people were afraid of iPhones, right?

Will Bitcoin give us hope? Absolutely.

I go back to the City of Vancouver and why this is so important. The City of Vancouver exists in the same conditions as everyone else does. While people can't afford a home or they're struggling with groceries, we have a budget.

We have to hire police officers, firefighters, engineers, and we're living in an environment where our currency is getting debased and we can't increase taxes at a rate that keeps up with that. We don't want to cut services, and so Bitcoin gives us hope where we can fix our financial state, our balance sheet.

And that will actually help us run this city for the next hundred years. I think when people understand Bitcoin and they start to adopt it, they will have hope, as well, because they will realize their purchasing power is going up, which is a great thing.

If you've been watching bitcoin, you probably noticed the pullback yesterday. It dropped from $108,000 to $99,000 after the FOMC meeting, where the Fed cut rates, and Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, when asked about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, said: "We're not allowed to own bitcoin and not looking for a law change.". The market, as usual, overreacted by dumping bitcoin. But let me tell you: This dip? It's nothing to worry about.

First of all, Jerome Powell's comments shouldn't have surprised anyone. The Fed doesn't control Bitcoin policy—Congress does. David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc., even pointed this out, saying the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would have "nothing to do with the Fed. It'd be housed at the Treasury." So, Powell's comments are irrelevant when it comes to a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the USA. The market just needed an excuse to cool off after its recent explosive run.

And honestly, dips like this are healthy—especially in a bull market. This isn't my first rodeo. I've been through three bitcoin bull markets since I jumped in back in 2016, and trust me, these pullbacks are totally normal, and they're part of the process. They shake out weak hands, consolidate support, and set the stage for even bigger moves. From my experience, we've only just entered this bull market, and the real fireworks aren't coming until 2025.

Think about it: Trump hasn't even taken office yet. His administration is likely to push pro-Bitcoin and crypto regulations, and combined with increasing institutional and global adoption the next year could be huge for the space.

So, don't panic. Don't let the short-term noise shake you out of the long-term game. Instead, use these pullbacks to your advantage. I'd personally be buying the dips, stacking sats, and preparing for what's ahead.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

The IMF yesterday announced they have reached a $1.4 billion loan deal with El Salvador. In return, the Central American country that in 2021 made bitcoin legal tender had to remove some of its pro-Bitcoin policies.

I spent about three months in El Salvador around the time the Bitcoin law went into effect. I thought then that it was a positive development for the country, but there were aspects of the law that I strongly disliked. Exactly these aspects are now being removed.

Most importantly, Salvadoran merchants will no longer be obligated to accept bitcoin. Great! I don’t think Bitcoin should be forced on anyone, nor do I believe Bitcoin needs that. Bitcoin is an emergent form of free market money, and adoption should happen voluntarily.

(In practice, this aspect of the law was barely enforced anyways. I’ve heard from one relative insider that some of the big fast food chains received phone calls from the government telling them to comply — which would explain why McDonald’s and Wendy’s did it — but otherwise I don’t think any merchants got in trouble for not accepting bitcoin.)

Additionally, El Salvador will have to wind down operations of its Chivo wallet. Maybe the software has improved over the years, but in 2021 the wallet was incredibly buggy; the open source community and free market are much more capable of building such tools. Good riddance!

That said, it is slightly disappointing that Salvadoran citizens won’t be able to pay tax in bitcoin anymore — though, again, I doubt many did. This is probably little more than a nuisance, however. Now, bitcoin-accepting merchants need to sell some of their BTC for USD before paying the taxman.

To succeed, Bitcoin benefits from an equal playing field. El Salvador still goes a long way to offer just that.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

700,000,000 satoshis (7 BTC) currently worth $706,000 at the time of writing, is being granted across 20 different projects around the world focusing on technical education for people living under authoritarian regimes, independent media outlets, decentralizing mining, and providing human rights groups with more private financial solutions — with a main areas of focus for these grants center around countries and regions in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

While the HRF did not disclose how much money each project is receiving specifically, the following 20 projects are the recipients of today's round of grants worth 7 BTC:

Stratum V2 Reference Implementation (SRI), an open-source software that decentralizes Bitcoin mining by enabling nodes to construct their own block templates. This helps promote solo mining, reduces reliance on large mining pools, and strengthens Bitcoin’s permissionless and censorship-resistant qualities. Funding will support developer bit-aloo’s full-time work on SRI, including benchmarking tools to evaluate the performance of Stratum V2, integration tests, codebase maintenance, and software documentation.

Public Pool, a free and open-source mining pool optimized for low hash rate devices (a mining device with limited computational power). Users can self-host a Stratum server and select their own block templates without relying on a third party. By making Bitcoin mining more accessible and decentralized, Public Pool strengthens the Bitcoin network. Funding will support hosting costs, hardware upgrades, and operational expenses.

Naiyoma, the first female Bitcoin Core developer from Africa. Hailing from Kenya, she is dedicated to fostering an open financial system rooted in transparency, freedom, and fairness. Her work focuses on reviewing pull requests (PRs), addressing bugs through new PRs, and improving Bitcoin Core’s codebase. Funds will support her full-time contributions to advancing Bitcoin Core.

Daniela Brozzoni, an experienced software developer. Previously, she contributed to the Bitcoin Development Kit (BDK), a software library that allows you to build cross-platform Bitcoin wallets. She is now shifting her focus to Bitcoin Core, where her work will be reviewing key pull requests (PRs), contributing to new features, and improving testing coverage. Through her efforts, Daniela aims to enhance Bitcoin’s decentralization, privacy, and resilience. This grant will support her full-time contributions to Bitcoin Core.

UX/UI Design for Bitcoin Core, redesign work by product designer Michael Haase that aims to bring the Bitcoin Core App to mobile devices (making it accessible beyond desktop use). This update will enable users to run nodes, access essential wallet features (such as Silent Payments and multisignature) directly on their phones, and improve their financial privacy. Funding will support the project’s design and development.

No BS Bitcoin, a newsdesk delivering the latest Bitcoin news and updates on open-source technologies in a clear and accessible format. Free from ads, tracking and paywalls, the platform consistently highlights privacy and freedom technologies essential for activists and citizens under authoritarian regimes. Funding will ensure the site’s continued operation, enable the hiring of an additional editor, and support the introduction of Nostr features (like Zaps and comments) to foster greater community engagement.

Tando, a new payment application co-founded by Sabina Gitau, empowering 54 million Kenyans to have the option to use Bitcoin for everyday transactions. By integrating with M-PESA, Kenya’s leading mobile payments system, Tando allows users to pay in Bitcoin via a Lightning wallet, while merchants receive Kenyan Shillings. The platform is KYC-free and has no fees, offering an affordable and private payment solution. Funds will help boost Tando’s liquidity, support a growing user base, and drive expansion across the African continent.

YakiHonne, a client for the decentralized Nostr protocol built by a team in East and Southeast Asia. It was developed by Wendy Ding to support free speech and promote Bitcoin payments across 170 countries. With innovative functionality and a blend of online and offline events, YakiHonne seeks to drive the adoption of decentralized social media. Funding will support smart widget development, relay network improvements, and influencer engagement to expand Nostr’s reach and impact.

SeedSigner Multi-language Support, a translation project by developer Ace to integrate multi-language functionality into the fully customizable, open-source SeedSigner hardware wallet. This will enhance accessibility for users worldwide and empower marginalized communities to achieve financial sovereignty through inexpensive and accessible self-custody. Funding will support the developer's efforts to deliver a multi-language version of SeedSigner within the next year.

Vexl, a peer-to-peer Bitcoin trading application founded by Lea Petrasova to provide users with a private and Know-Your-Customer (KYC) free Bitcoin experience. By connecting users through their phone contacts, Vexl enables secure, direct Bitcoin transactions in a peer-to-peer manner. The app aims to make private Bitcoin usage more accessible while offering critical protection against authoritarian regimes. Funding will support Vexl’s growth, focusing on reaching African communities and driving improvements to its backend infrastructure.

Tomatech, a community focused on building a team of developers in India to advance Bitcoin infrastructure and Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) projects. By offering mentorship and training, it bridges the gap between education and practical experience. Additionally, its Goa-based cultural center and community space will foster a vibrant Bitcoin community through meetups, workshops, and residencies. Funding will support developer training, the creation of a developer hub, bounties and grants, and general operations.

Krux, open-source software that turns generic devices into hardware wallets for secure Bitcoin self-custody and transactions. It features air-gapped operations, key management and backups, an intuitive interface, and support for 10 languages. This project can help decentralize Bitcoin custody and safeguard freedom and property rights in authoritarian regimes. Funding will help developer Odudex further advance this innovative open-source project.

Iris, a Nostr web client created by developer Martti Malmi designed to make private and secure messaging simpler and safer. Using the MIT-licensed nostr-double ratchet library, it aims to improve protection for metadata and message content, ensuring conversations remain private—especially in surveillant environments. Funding will support hiring a developer to expand Iris's features and functionality.

African UX Bitcoin Bootcamp, a program that empowers talented Bitcoin UX designers from authoritarian countries with the opportunity to attend the Africa Bitcoin Conference (ABC) for hands-on training and networking. Led by Bitcoin Design Foundation’s co-founder, Mogashni Naidoo, participants will receive on-ground training and test the usability of their products at ABC. Funds will cover the program expenses, including flights, accommodations, and logistics, ensuring accessibility for all participants.

Bitcoin History, a research project by Pete Rizzo dedicated to documenting and preserving key people, events, and materials (ie. photographs, videos, links, information) that shaped Bitcoin’s rise as a global monetary and human rights force. Focused on “the history of the future of money,” the project highlights Bitcoin’s role as a tool for financial freedom. The grant will support an additional researcher to investigate and document stories of Bitcoin’s use against authoritarian regimes.

Cashu-ts, the primary Software Development Kit (SDK) in the Cashu ecosystem developed by Gandlaf21. It simplifies wallet creation, integrates the latest protocol updates, and powers popular wallets (like Minibits, eNuts, and Nutstash). By enabling the development of secure, privacy-focused “digital cash” wallets, Cashu-ts plays a vital role in advancing the Cashu ecosystem and financial privacy. This grant will support the developers in maintaining and improving this essential library.

Unify, a Payjoin wallet developed by Fontaine to enhance privacy in Bitcoin transactions. Built using Nostr and Bitcoin Core, it leverages Payjoins to obscure transaction histories by enabling multiple parties to make collaborative payments (making Bitcoin inherently more private). This functionality is especially crucial for individuals navigating repressive regimes. Funding will support the developer's full-time contributions, advancing Unify’s features and expanding its compatibility with other wallets.

The Financial Freedom Policy Coalition, a policy coalition founded by Venezuelan activist, Jorge Jraissati, brings together youth leaders, policymakers, and industry experts to promote economic opportunities for people living under authoritarian regimes. The coalition plans advocacy missions to educate policymakers on how Bitcoin can support human rights and create social benefits. Funds will cover the costs of organizing and running these missions.

Jon Atack, a Bitcoin Core contributor and Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) editor, recognized as one of the top all-time contributors to Bitcoin Core. As a dedicated developer, he plays a pivotal role in enhancing Bitcoin’s decentralization and robustness. Atack is also a staunch advocate for using Bitcoin and open-source software as tools to resist tyranny and advance global human rights. This grant will empower him to continue his vital contributions to Bitcoin development.

Brink, an organization committed to strengthening the Bitcoin protocol through research and development. Co-founded by Mike Schmidt, Brink supports Bitcoin protocol engineers with grants and offers training and mentorship to onboard new contributors to open-source development. This grant will cover operational expenses, ensuring continued support for open-source developers and the advancement of Bitcoin’s core infrastructure.

The HRF is a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization that promotes and protects human rights globally, with a focus on closed societies. The HRF continues to raise support for the Bitcoin Development Fund, and interested donors can find more info on how to donate here. Applications for grant support by the HRF can be submitted here. 

One counter-argument against pushing for greater scalability with Bitcoin is that “most people won’t self-custody anyway, so why bother?”

This is a wildly assumptive, arrogant, and outright fallacious argument. It is the same type of logical fallacy that human beings can’t help but make. The current state of the present is an indicator of what the state of the future will be.

“It’s not raining today, so it won’t be raining tomorrow.” It’s exactly the type of thinking that led Bitcoiners during the last market cycle to take for granted we would hit 100-200 thousand dollars as a peak then. That assumption was brutally destroyed by a double top at 69 thousand, a mere ~3.5x from the previous all time high.

The very nature of the digital age we live in, and the numerous radical transformations we have all seen within short periods of time during our lives alone should shake people out of their assumptions that the present is a demonstration of the nature of the future, but for many people it doesn’t.

First off, many people not currently self custodying their own coins do not even understand the distinction between self custody and their coins sitting on Coinbase. To many unsophisticated users, they’re all just apps that hold their bitcoin. I have encountered this misconception more times than I can count in my time in this space interacting with newer users. These users haven’t even been made aware of the possibility yet, discounting them is just absurd and presumptuous.

Secondly, users who choose to not self custody right now generally don’t because of the fear of losing their keys. It’s not a fear of “responsibility.” It’s a fear of them not being capable of properly handling redundancy in their key management, and losing everything they have invested due to incompetence or legitimate mistakes or freak accidents.

This isn’t 2013 anymore. People aren’t making backups of individual private keys in a digital file anymore. Key management schemes have come a long way since then. Mnemonic seeds, multisignature wallets, etc. Basic vaults using pre-signed transactions even exist, although are not widely used. Tools exist to make self custody available in ways that offer safeguards and helping hands in the case of mistakes and the need to recover coins keys have been lost to.

Unchained exists. Casa exists. Nunchuck exists. Bitkey exists. All of these tools will become even better as time goes on. Embracing Schnorr and Taproot, these recovery friendly self custody schemes can blind third party servers so that during signing and normal use these services don’t even learn anything about the coins users hold or transactions they co-sign. Taproot enables wallets to delegate emergency recovery keys to friends or family members without them knowing anything about those coins unless they are needed.

Tooling around self custody is advancing, and people’s attitudes around self custody will change alongside those massive advancements in technology. Discounting the need for scalability because people have reasons not to right now is pure arrogance.

It is nothing more than the “I have mine, so fuck everyone else” attitude. The current state of the world being a certain way does not guarantee it will be that way in the future. Only the arrogant assume so. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

This article will explain what the Puell Multiple is, how to interpret it, and what the current reading on the chart suggests for investors. For a real-time look at this tool, check out the Puell Multiple chart on Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

What is the Puell Multiple?

The Puell Multiple is an indicator that compares Bitcoin miners’ daily revenue to its long-term average. Miners, as the “supply side” of Bitcoin’s economy, must sell portions of their BTC rewards to cover operational costs like energy and hardware. This makes miner revenue a critical factor influencing Bitcoin’s price dynamics.

How is the Puell Multiple Calculated?

The formula is simple:

Puell Multiple = Daily Issuance Value of BTC (in USD) ÷ 365-Day Moving Average of Daily Issuance Value

By comparing current miner revenues to their yearly average, the Puell Multiple identifies periods where miner profits are unusually high or low, signaling potential market tops or bottoms.

How to Read the Puell Multiple Chart

The Puell Multiple chart uses color zones to make interpretation straightforward:

1. Red Zone (Overvaluation)
   • When the Puell Multiple enters the red zone (above 3.4), it suggests miner revenues are significantly higher than usual.
   • Historically, this has coincided with Bitcoin price peaks, indicating potential overvaluation.
2. Green Zone (Undervaluation)
   • When the Puell Multiple drops into the green zone (below 0.5), it signals that miner revenues are unusually low.
   • These periods have historically aligned with Bitcoin market bottoms, offering prime buying opportunities.
3. Neutral Zone
   • When the Puell Multiple hovers between these levels, Bitcoin’s price is typically in a steady range relative to historical norms.

Current Insights: What is the Puell Multiple Telling Us?

Looking at the current Puell Multiple chart from Bitcoin Magazine Pro:

• The Puell Multiple (orange line) is trending upward but remains well below the red overvaluation zone.
• This suggests that Bitcoin is not yet in an overheated phase, where prices historically peak.
• At the same time, the metric is far above the green undervaluation zone, signaling we are no longer in a market bottom phase.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

The current Puell Multiple reading points to Bitcoin being in a mid-market cycle:

• Bullish Momentum: With the metric rising steadily, the market appears to be moving into a bullish phase, though it remains far from “overheated.”
• No Immediate Peak: The lack of a red zone reading suggests there may still be room for upside growth before a major correction.

Investors should monitor this chart closely in the coming months, particularly as Bitcoin approaches its next halving event in 2028, which could further influence miner revenues.

Why the Puell Multiple Matters for Bitcoin Investors

The Puell Multiple offers a unique perspective on Bitcoin’s market cycles by focusing on the supply side (miner revenue), rather than just demand. For long-term investors, this tool can be valuable for:

• Identifying Buying Opportunities: The green zone highlights periods of undervaluation.
• Spotting Market Peaks: The red zone has historically aligned with major price tops.
• Navigating Market Cycles: Combining the Puell Multiple with other indicators can help investors time their entries and exits more strategically.

Stay Ahead of the Market with Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For professional investors and Bitcoin enthusiasts looking to deepen their analysis, tools like the Puell Multiple chart on Bitcoin Magazine Pro provide essential insights into Bitcoin’s valuation trends.

By understanding the Puell Multiple and its historical significance, you can make informed decisions and better navigate Bitcoin’s unique market cycles.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

Yesterday, BlackRock released a new video aimed at educating people interested in Bitcoin on the asset class.

The video is quite good, honestly. I think they took inspiration from Saifedean Ammous’ book “The Bitcoin Standard,” which discusses the history of money from the beginning of time and how it has changed and evolved throughout history.

Launched in January, IBIT has now topped $50 Billion in assets as investors are increasingly using the ETP to get efficient exposure to bitcoin’s price. Yet many investors are still relatively new to the digital assets space. For those looking to learn more about what bitcoin is… pic.twitter.com/8wh9CW0xYa

— Jay Jacobs (@JayJacobsCFA) December 17, 2024

Seeing this type of educational Bitcoin content from a $11.5 trillion asset manager is something that I think will really resonate with their target audiences.

Watching the video, there was one moment in particular that stood out to me. BlackRock was highlighting where Bitcoin is today and said, “Bitcoin is no longer seen as the radical idea it was 15 years ago. Over 500 million people around the world now use cryptocurrency, with over 50% holding or investing in Bitcoin.”

That right there screams to me that Bitcoin is becoming recognized as a legit and established asset class in the eyes of the financial elite, and then eventually the mainstream.

In the early days, Bitcoin really was such a radical new idea that probably 99% of people could not conceptualize. However, over time, Bitcoin has proven itself time and time again to be a legit asset and people are now interested in embracing this new form of money. It feels like there has been a sincere paradigm shift and that we are slowly, but surely, leaving the point in history where the majority of people think Bitcoin is a scam and bad for any other generic FUD that has already been thoroughly debunked.

With that being said, I’m not saying everyone is on the verge of becoming a bitcoin maximalist or anything, but I do think that more and more people are becoming accepting to the fact that Bitcoin is here to stay and that it’s not going anywhere — which I would think eventually leads to people saying “I should probably own some bitcoin then.”

This isn’t just anyone saying Bitcoin is becoming a legit asset, this is the world’s largest asset manager. BlackRock is putting their reputation behind Bitcoin and projecting confidence in the long-term success of it. And so far it has been an amazing play by them embracing Bitcoin, with their spot Bitcoin ETF being the most successful ETF launch in history.

When they speak highly of a potentially profitable investment, people listen. I think in particular, the wealthy and accredited investors are the first to take notice and advantage of BlackRock’s signalling here. Eventually this will be followed by retail investors.

I believe Bitcoin is set to enter an entirely new paradigm unlike anything we've seen before.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

When I saw Nic Carter's recent Bloomberg interview, I couldn't help but shake my head. Nic, who's been a long-time Bitcoiner and someone I respect, said that the US shouldn't—and won't—buy Bitcoin for its strategic reserves because it would supposedly signal weakness in the dollar on the global stage. I get his argument, but I completely disagree. In fact, I think it's the exact opposite.

In my view, adding Bitcoin to the US reserves would be a massive show of strength. It would send a message to the world that the US sees Bitcoin for what it is: a financial safeguard, a form of "digital gold," and not some competitor to the dollar.

The US already holds tons of assets in its reserves—crude oil, diesel, uranium, foreign currencies, and over $500 billion in gold. None of those holdings makes the dollar look weak. Instead, they reinforce confidence in the dollar's stability. Bitcoin would do the same.

Now, let's talk about the risk of not buying Bitcoin. If the US refuses to include Bitcoin in its reserves, it sends a dangerous message: that the US is afraid of Bitcoin and views it as a threat rather than an ally. And here's the kicker—if the US doesn't act, another major country will.

Imagine what happens if China or Russia starts accumulating Bitcoin and positions it as an alternative to the dollar. That's a terrifying thought for the US. But if the US buys Bitcoin, it changes the narrative entirely. It would integrate Bitcoin into the US financial system, showing the world that Bitcoin isn't a threat—it's part of the dollar's ecosystem. Just like holding gold reserves doesn't undermine the dollar, holding Bitcoin would only boost confidence in the US at the global level.

And let's not forget Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset of the last decade. If you're American, why wouldn't you want the US to have the best asset in its reserves? It might even help pay down some of that $36 trillion debt someday.

So yeah, I think Nic Carter is wrong on this one. Adding Bitcoin to the US reserves wouldn't signal weakness—it would scream confidence, strength, and forward-thinking leadership. If the US wants to stay ahead, it needs to act before someone else does.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Misra was selected from 232 applicants globally for the scholarship, covering one year's academic expenses. She can renew it annually to potentially fund her entire undergraduate education.

"This scholarship exists to encourage young people to consider a career in Bitcoin open source development," said Adam Jonas, CEO of Chaincode Labs. "In order to do that, they need experience. This seemed like the right kind of incentive where we are helping them continue their education and they spend their summers contributing to Bitcoin open source software."

Misra started programming at 12, but her Bitcoin journey began before high school when she read the whitepaper. She quickly went from running a node to contributing to Bitcoin Core, teaching herself C++.

"I'm usually the youngest at Bitcoin developer meetups, but I don't think about it much anymore," said Misra. "Your work really speaks for itself. If you're interested, people will take you seriously."

It's inspiring to see the younger generation getting involved with Bitcoin development and being supported, as it will encourage more youth to contribute.

Look, I think it's only a matter of time before China pulls a complete 180 on its Bitcoin ban. Yes, they outlawed trading and mining back in 2021, but honestly, a lot has changed since then — especially this year. Bitcoin's momentum globally has been insane.

We've seen US President-Elect Donald Trump calling to stockpile Bitcoin; Bitcoin ETFs get approved, Fed Chair Jerome Powell calling Bitcoin "digital gold," Larry Fink flipping pro-Bitcoin, and even Putin saying nice things about it. With all of this happening, I wouldn't be shocked if China has already started quietly stacking sats (buying bitcoin).

Here's why I think that: China doesn't like to announce what it's doing beforehand — it's just not how they operate. Former Binance CEO CZ talked about this recently at the Bitcoin MENA conference in Abu Dhabi, saying that while the US loves to make big public statements about upcoming policies (like Trump announcing Bitcoin plans to court voters), Asian countries prefer to move in silence.

And let's not forget China doesn't have elections. They don't need to win over public opinion like Trump does. If they're making moves with Bitcoin, they'll do it quietly — and we'll find out when they're ready to make it official.

Now, with Trump's big push for Bitcoin and crypto, I can't see China sitting on the sidelines for too long. This is turning into a global race, and if China wants to stay competitive, they can't afford to miss the Bitcoin train. My gut tells me they're already planning to unban Bitcoin and crypto — and I wouldn't be surprised if it happens as early as Q1 next year, especially if Trump takes office.

Another big hint? Hong Kong. China has a long history of using Hong Kong as a sandbox to test things before rolling them out on the mainland. And this year, we've seen Hong Kong make major moves — approving Bitcoin and crypto ETFs and greenlighting more crypto exchanges. Let's be real: this isn't a coincidence. They are planning to eliminate crypto taxes for institutions. I think China is watching carefully, and these are early steps toward a broader shift.

In my opinion, China has likely been quietly accumulating bitcoin all along. When the time is right, they'll unban it — and not just to compete with the US, but to lead. Watch this space. I think it's going to happen much sooner than most people expect.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Last week, long-time Bitcoiner John Carvalho introduced a new Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) aimed at addressing the unit bias issue many people face when first finding bitcoin.

“This BIP proposes redefining the commonly recognized "bitcoin" unit so that what was previously known as the smallest indivisible unit becomes the primary reference unit,” Carvalho explains. “Under this proposal, one bitcoin is defined as that smallest unit, eliminating the need for decimal places. By making the integral unit the standard measure, this BIP aims to simplify user comprehension, reduce confusion, and align on-chain values directly with their displayed representation.”

The display of how units of bitcoin are displayed would shift from its current state to this:

Current: 1.00000000 BTC → New: 100000000 BTC (or ₿100000000)

Current: 0.00500000 BTC → New: 500000 BTC (or ₿500000)

Current: 0.00010000 BTC → New: 10000 BTC (or ₿10000)

“Historically, 1 BTC = 100,000,000 base units. Under this proposal, "1 bitcoin" equals that smallest unit,” the proposal further explained.

I understand where Carvalho is coming from on this and I can visualize scenarios where some people may find this easier, but I think the thinking here is likely short sighted and doesn’t work in the grand scheme of things.

Over the years I have also heard of other Bitcoiners discussing ways to combat the unit bias of Bitcoin. It seems most Bitcoiners are primarily concerned with how new users often get immediately discouraged if they cannot afford a whole bitcoin, and tend to gravitate towards buying altcoins instead where they can buy at least 1 unit of that coin.

After acknowledging the issues he’s trying to address with this, I personally do not support this BIP. I think it would add more confusion rather than solving it. I think it is ultimately a waste of time and energy for Bitcoin developers to focus on this when there are many other things they could be working on that would add actual value to Bitcoin.

I think Stephan Livera has had a couple really good takes on this, pointing out how silly it would actually be in practice.

Hey I've got this great idea! Instead of 1 pizza with 8 slices, let's just call each slice a pizza!

Just make sure when you go to order your pizza, you now order 8 pizzas instead of 1. Otherwise the staff will get confused.

Just my 2 pizzas.

— Stephan Livera (@stephanlivera) December 14, 2024

Everyone involved in Bitcoin is already accustomed to how it currently is specified, so this is not a real problem most people seem to care about. Carvalho has suggested a feature be implemented where wallets and such can toggle between the current and would-be new way of displaying the units of bitcoin, so there is a transition period where users can get used to his way of specifying units of bitcoin, but I just don’t see why it would be worth making this transition.

It would just feel like a burden on everyone to start explaining this way and potentially slow adoption if anything.

Good luck to the people who would rather explain "there will never be more than 2.1 quadrillion bitcoins" ????

— Stephan Livera (@stephanlivera) December 14, 2024

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Founders: Janet Maingi, Erik Hersman and Philip Walton

Date Founded: August 2022

Location of Headquarters: United States | Operations in Kenya, Malawi and Zambia

Number of Employees: 10

Website: https://gridlesscompute.com/

Public or Private? Private

Gridless doesn’t just mine bitcoin — it helps to facilitate the electrification of rural Africa, which is notably improving the lives of those who previously either didn’t have access to power or couldn’t afford it.

Gridless’ co-founder Janet Maingi explained to Bitcoin Magazine how the company’s facilities, which are based in Kenya, Malawi and Zambia, have a win-win-win effect for the company itself, the Bitcoin network and the communities that benefit from Gridless’ operations.

“Our mission is to mine Bitcoin profitably,” Maingi told Bitcoin Magazine. “But as we do this, we also do two other things: we push electrification out to the edge in Africa and we decentralize the Bitcoin network, which has historically been very centralized to North America and China.”

In just over two years, Gridless has set a new standard for the type of impact a Bitcoin mining company can have, showing the world that Bitcoin mining can have a symbiotic relationship with the communities it touches and that it can be a catalyst for human flourishing.

I sat down with Maingi in person in Kenya after this year’s Africa Bitcoin Conference to discuss the work she does and the impact it has on the communities it reaches.

Frank Corva: How does Gridless help to electrify Africa?

Janet Maingi: About 600 million Africans have no access to electricity. That's about two-thirds of our population. The private sector has stepped in because the main grids do not reach everyone on the continent.

You'll find that bigger cities like Nairobi or Mombasa have electricity, but if you go to rural Africa, people have no access to electricity because of distribution challenges.

So, the private sector came and started setting up mini-grids. Private companies have done the best they can with these mini-grids. However, they’re very capital intensive, and so there are struggles with fundraising. And even when you actually get them set up, the consumers around your area might not be very wealthy. They're just living day-to-day. They may have to consider “Do I need electricity or do I need food?”

The companies that construct the mini-grids build power plants that use hydro energy. Let's say they want to build one that produces one megawatt of energy, but the community only ends up using 200 kilowatts. There's 800 kilowatts that they generated from the river, but for that 800 kilowatts, they get zero shillings, zero dollars, zero anything.

So, we at Gridless come in and say “That electricity that you're not able to send to anyone, is what we want.” That's what you call stranded power or wasted energy, and it’s what we want. So, we become your buyer of last resort.

We come and create an agreement to use that extra electricity, and from a revenue sharing perspective, we work together. It's a win-win situation. Our data centers use that electricity to mine bitcoin.

But then the catalyzing of electrification comes in. When we've used that electricity, it's become a source of revenue for the energy power plant. They were not making money on that electricity previously, and now they’re profiting from it.

What have we seen as the effect? One, they are able to extend their reach, to distribute electricity further. And secondly, some of them have been able to actually lower their prices. So, consumers who are within their reach but wouldn’t use the electricity because of the cost are suddenly saying, “Hey, hook me up. I can afford to pay for this now.”

Corva: So, in a sense, you're subsidizing the rate of electricity.

Maingi: Yes, because we come in and use this power, the energy generator is able to give better prices and increase its reach. So, again, what does this mean? More homes getting lit, more small enterprises getting electricity, more factories getting powered and more health centers getting electricity. You can now imagine the upward spiral effect.

However, the challenge is that doing business in Africa is like an extreme sport.

Corva: Why is that?

Maingi: So, let's start with just getting the equipment. The mining machines come from China, either from Bitmain or MicroBT, or you’ll get them from a company in the U.S., and the process of getting them into Africa can be painful.

We received a batch that came from the U.S. and it took us 60 something days just to get them into the country. This is from putting them on a ship to getting them here. This doesn’t include figuring out the logistics around getting the miners on site and going through pre-shipment inspection to make sure that they meet the Kenyan standards.

It's a process that takes almost 120 days from start to end. If you're running a business, and it takes you 120 days to get your product on the ground, it's painful.

Secondly, these machines are designed to work very well in China or the U.S.

Conditions in Africa are different, though.

Corva: Does this have anything to do with air quality?